September 15th, 2014 To: Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire Fr: John Diez, Magellan Strategies BR Re: September New Hampshire Statewide Survey Results Magellan Strategies BR is pleased to report the results of a New Hampshire statewide survey conducted September 10-11, 2014. The automated survey of 2,214 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.0%.

Summary Findings Terrorism and border security trump Obamacare as most important issues.

Obama’s job approval drops 3 points. Republicans have a 10 point lead on the generic ballot.

Scott Brown leads Jeanne Shaheen by almost 2 points (45.9% Brown/44.3% Shaheen/9.8% undecided) in the U.S. Senate race.

Brown’s lead is in part the result of solidifying the GOP base. Brown’s support among Republicans has grown by 5 points since July. He now leads

Shaheen among registered Republicans by 64 points (79% Brown/14% Shaheen/7%

undecided). More important for Brown’s campaign is the fact that his support among

Republican voters has intensified. In July, Brown’s overall support among Republicans,

74%, was the sum of 49% definitely Brown and 25% probably Brown. Currently,

Brown’s overall support among Republican voters is the sum of 68% definitely Brown

and 11% probably Brown.

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Scott Brown’s lead is also the result of his growing support among women, independents and soft Democrats. Shaheen’s lead among female voters has declined by 42% since July. In July, Shaheen

led among females by 19 points (34% Brown/53% Shaheen/13% undecided).

Currently, she leads among female voters by 11 points (39% Brown/50% Shaheen/11%

undecided).

In July, Shaheen led Brown among independent voters by 11 points (35% Brown/46%

Shaheen/19% undecided). Currently, her lead has been cut to 1 point (42%

Brown/43% Shaheen/15% undecided).

Shaheen’s support among soft Democrats has dropped 18 points since July. In July,

Shaheen led among soft Democrats by 45 points (22% Brown/68% Shaheen/10%

undecided). Currently Shaheen leads by only 19 points (31% Brown/50%

Shaheen/18% undecided).

The protracted negative political environment is beginning to cut deeper into key swing voting groups’ attitudes and opinions, which is shaping a GOP friendly electorate. • Republican support on the generic ballot has increased by 4.5 points. The generic

Republican candidate now leads by 10 points.

If the election for US Senate were being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates

was that one was a Republican and the other was a Democrat, for whom would you

vote?

• Among independent voters, the generic GOP candidate now leads by 10 points (40%

GOP candidate/30% Democrat candidate/30% undecided). In July, the generic GOP

candidate led by only 3.8 points (32.4% GOP candidate/28.6% Democrat

candidate/38.9% undecided).

47%

36%

17%42%

36%

22%

July 2014 Sept. 2014

Republican Candidate

Democrat Candidate

Undecided

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• Among female voters, the generic GOP candidate now leads by 1 point (42% GOP

candidate/41% Democrat candidate/16% undecided). In July, the generic GOP

candidate was down 6 points among female voters (36% GOP candidate/42%

Democrat candidate/22% undecided).

Among undecided voters, Shaheen will have a steeper hill to climb.

11%

% of undecided voter who approve of President Obama‘s job performance.

19%

% of undecided voter who think things in the country are going in the right direction.

23%

% of undecided voters who have a favorable opinion of Shaheen

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MAGELLAN ID#:NHSTW-0914-A Sample Size=2,214n;+/-2.0% Field Date: 09/10-11/14

Hello, this is ________________ calling on behalf of Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. We’re conducting a quick survey with people in NEW HAMPSHIRE this evening and would like to ask you a few questions on a confidential basis. Q 1. How likely are you to vote in the up-coming elections for Governor and US Senate?

09/14 07/14

EXTREMELY LIKELY TO VOTE

91.4%

85.9%

VERY LIKELY TO VOTE

5.8%

9.2%

SOMEWHAT LIKELY TO VOTE

2.8%

5.0%

Q 2. Thinking now about issues that are facing the country today…Among the following list of (4) issues, which do you think is the top priority that the CONGRESS and US SENATE should be addressing the most aggressively?

PROTECTING THE US FROM FUTURE TERRORIST ATTACK

22.5%

SECURING OUR BORDERS AND ADDRESSING THE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION PROBLEM

18.2%

REPEALING AND REPLACING OBAMACARE

14.3%

REDUCING THE NATIONAL DEBT AND SIZE OF GOVERNMENT

14.0%

UNDECIDED

9.7%

NONE OF THE ABOVE

21.4%

Q 3. Would you say things in country are going in the right direction or have they gotten

off on the wrong track?

09/14 07/14 RIGHT DIRECTION

35.4%

35.1%

WRONG TRACK

64.6%

64.9%

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Q 4. If the election for US Senate were being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Republican and the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote?

09/14 07/14

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE

46.6%

42.1%

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE

36.4%

36.3%

UNDECIDED

17.0%

21.6%

Thinking now about people active in government… Q 5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Brown?

09/14 07/14 FAVORABLE

38.6%

34.5%

UNFAVORABLE

47.6%

43.0%

HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION

12.3%

20.0%

NEVER HEARD OF

1.4%

2.5%

Thinking now about people active in government… Q 6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeanne Shaheen?

09/14 07/14

FAVORABLE

44.7%

46.9%

UNFAVORABLE

49.5%

43.0%

HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION

5.4%

9.0%

NEVER HEARD OF

0.4%

1.1%

Q 7. And do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as

President?

09/14 07/14

APPROVE

33.3%

36.1%

DISAPPROVE

57.0%

56.2%

UNDECIDED

9.7%

7.6%

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Thinking now about the 2014 election for US Senate... Q 8-10. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates

were Scott Brown, Republican, or Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat?

09/14 07/14

SCOTT BROWN

45.9%

41.1%

JEANNE SHAHEEN

44.3%

46.0%

UNDECIDED

9.8%

12.9%

DEFINITELY BROWN

39.0%

25.9%

PROBABLY BROWN

6.9%

15.2%

PROBABLY SHAHEEN

7.5%

10.5%

DEFINITELY SHAHEEN

36.8%

35.5%

Q 11. In your opinion, has congress done an adequate job securing the US/Mexico border?

YES

18.5%

NO

75.5%

Q 12. And in your opinion, how likely is it that terrorists will enter the US by crossing the

US/Mexico border?

TOTAL LIKELY

66.5%

TOTAL NOT LIKELY

33.5%

VERY LIKELY

39.5%

SOMEWHAT LIKELY

27.1%

NOT TOO LIKELY

22.8%

NOT AT ALL LIKELY

10.7%

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Q 14. These last few questions are for statistical purposes only. Are you a male or female?

09/14 07/14

MALE

49.0%

49.0%

FEMALE

51.0%

51.0%

Q 15-17.Regardless of how you feel today, with which party are you registered to vote?

09/14 07/14

REPUBLICAN

34.6%

34.6%

DEMOCRAT

29.9%

29.9%

INDEPENDENT OR OTHER

35.5%

35.5%

STR REPUBLICAN

23.6%

23.7%

NSS REPUBLICAN

11.0%

10.9%

NSS DEMOCRATIC

9.1%

9.8%

STR DEMOCRAT

20.8%

20.1%

Q 18. Which of the following age group applies to you?

09/14 07/14

18-34

13.0%

13.0%

35-44

14.4%

14.4%

45-54

25.1%

25.1%

55-64

24.3%

24.3%

65 PLUS

23.2%

23.2%