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Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the Crossroad of the Global Supply Chain Shanghai, April 15 2004

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Page 1: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Mail, Express and Logistics in China:

Challenges and Opportunities

China at the Crossroad of the Global Supply Chain

Shanghai, April 15 2004

Page 2: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Agenda

• Introduction to TPG

• China

• Our markets in China

• TPG and China

Page 3: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

161,000 employees

62 countries

Network covers 200 countries

TPG Post

Best postal operator

in the world

Mail networks in

seven European

countries

7 billion mail items

TNT Express

Largest in express

in Europe

43 aircraft

19,000 vehicles

187 million

consignments

TNT Logistics

Second logistics

operator worldwide

Number one in

automotive logistics

6.3 million m2 of

warehouses

TPG: a global leader in mail, express and logistics

Page 4: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Market perception

Page 5: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

2003 results

Growth2002

€ mln

2003

€ mln

0.38

599

1,058

11,782

0.40

300

767

11,866

20.0%

-49.9%

-27.5%

0.7%

Dividend per share in €

Net income

Operating income (EBIT)

Revenues

585616 5.3%Underlying net income from continuing

operations

623629 1.0%Free cash flow

Page 6: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Core business

• Our business is to deliver the

products of our customers,

and our portfolio of businesses

is derived from that

• Our individual businesses have

strong strategies underpinned

by Value Based Management

Key assets

• Our brand reputation and

pride among our people are

the two most important

assets we manage

Core strength

• We exploit the strength of our

portfolio of businesses

through the TPG-I program

Growth

• New growth opportunities

have been identified in China,

Freight Forwarding and the

consolidation in the European

Postal market

TPG Strategy elements

The TPG Strategy is based on the following elements:

Page 7: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Agenda

• Introduction to TPG

• China

• Our markets in China

a)TPG and China

Page 8: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Fastest growing economy in the world

4,097

2,122

1,204

1,407

398

11,608

4,715

2,394

2,065

1,711

454

8,923United States

Japan

Germany

China

UK

Netherlands

CAGR

’02–’10

Percent

Real GDP development

€ Billions

3.3

1.8

1.5

7.0

2.5

1.7

2002

2010

Page 9: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

World’s third largest exporter

570

302

367

288

194

1,232

1,181

1,085

652

574

413

632United States

Germany

China

Japan

France

Netherlands

CAGR

’02–’10

Percent

Export value

€ Billions

8.7

9.5

17.3

7.4

9.0

9.9

2002

2010

Page 10: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Foreign Direct Investment expected to remain high

0

20

40

60

80

100

FDI in China

€ Billions

CAGR=6.6%

CAGR=16.4%

1992 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’08

In 2002 China has been the biggest receiver of FDI, even

surpassing the U.S.

FDI

€ BillionsCountry

49

48

36

34

24

China

France

Germany

US

Netherlands

MNCs expect to continue to invest

significantly in China

Planned further investment

during next 5 years

€ Billions

6.1

4.9

4.6

4.6

3.8

2.0

“Nissan to invest RMB 8.5billion for

50% of Dong Feng Motor”

Example

Page 11: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Not without risks...

Type of shock

Financial

Energy

Natural

Public health

Triggering event

Local liquidity crisis

Local NPL implosion

Collapse of confidence in local

markets, leading to bank runs

Asset bubbles bursting resulting in

dramatic worsening of NPL in certain

geographies

Input price shock

Distribution shock

Global crude oil price jumps

Dramatic shift in demand distribution

due to weather or partial shut down of

generation factories

Grains shortage

Destruction of major

cities or transport hub

Severe flooding or drought affecting

large area

Major earthquakes (e.g., Kobe)

Partial economic shut

down due to extremely

infectious disease

Unknown/untreatable infectious

disease (e.g., SARS)

Domestic

China National and

Reform Commission

Ministry of Commerce

China‟s Center for

Disease Control

China financial

institutions

Large domestic corps

Leading academics

International

Organizations such as

Asian Development

Bank and the WHO

Three former U.S.

Assistant Secretary of

Treasury

Former senior official of

U.S. Federal Reserve

Former U.S.

Undersecretary of

Treasury

Experts interviewed

Page 12: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

…but strong fundamentals

GDP growth contribution

%

61%25%

9%5%

Invest-

ment

Private

consump-

tion

Net export

Foreign reserves

% of GDP

15 16 1318

23

4 5 5 6

60

Government debt outstanding

% of GDP

US

2002

Gov‟t con-

sumption

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1999 2000 2001 2002

Strong domestic

investments,

immense foreign

reserves and low

government debt

mean that China

has a better

“immunity system”

to absorb

economic shocks

Pressure for RMB

revaluation while

capital account is

closed may

increase incentive

short-term for

investments

Closed capital

account

RMB is not convertible under the

capital account, thus hot money

cannot flow in and out quickly to put

the currency under siege

Second largest reserves in the world

Low government debt

Economy is driven by strong domestic

investment rather than relying on FDI

China‟s productivity growth has been

one of the strongest in the world

China‟s savings rate is one of the

highest in the world

Strong gov’t

resources

Strong econ

fundamentals

There are many risk mitigating

factors to protect China from crisis

Page 13: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

0.45

0.41

0.35

0.43

0.39

0.30

0.26

0.22

0.22

0.20

0.12

85

45

30

10

7

An opportunity for TPG

Direct mail items/capita

2002, unless otherwise stated

Top tier EU

Average EU

2d tier EU

3rd tier EU

China „02

Size of total parcel and express

market/GDP, 2002

Percent

U.S.

Japan

Germany

France

Canada

UK

Czech

Hungary

Poland

China0.25 -

0.35

Portugal

By 2010:

Logistics costs

Percentage of nominal GDP, 2002

10.1

11.5

18.5

US

Europe

China

Page 14: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Strong strategic imperative to invest

Source: Team analysis

Logistics

• By 2010, China will be the 2nd largest

automotive market in the world in terms of

volume

• Generally up to 30-40% of global

manufacturing output will originate from

China by 2010

Express

• By 2010, China‟s express market will be the

6th largest in the world

• China will be a key country in terms of global

supply chains

Mail

• China Post is already the 2nd largest postal

operator in the world in terms of people

• The China Post network will likely develop

into the world‟s largest domestic mail network

by 2010

• Rapid evolution of the private and corporate

sector creating huge opportunities for

domestic mail services

China opportunity

Is it possible to

be a global logistics player and

maintain a leading position in

auto logistics without leading in

China?

Implications for TPG

Can TNT claim to

be a global express player in

2010 without having a strong

position in China?

Is there another

similarly attractive market to

enter and apply TPG’s

distinctive mail operator

capabilities than China?

Page 15: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Agenda

• Introduction to TPG

• China

• Our markets in China

• Logistics

• Express

• Mail

a)TPG and China

Page 16: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Logistics - a world of contrasts

Fully Automated High Bay Warehouse

Page 17: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

A common scene on transport

Logistics - a world of contrasts

Page 18: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

High logistics costs

Development of logistics costs – top down assessment

Percentage of nominal GDP

Source: Morgan Stanley; China Traffic Statistical Yearbook 2003; team analysis

10.2 9.9 9.2

19.0

14.5

23.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

China

US

CAGR

1997-2010

Percent

-1.0

-3.7

Drivers

Unprecedented Infrastructure investment (more than €1,000 bn from 1997-2002, and estimated more than €2,000 bn from 2003-2008) is increasing efficiency nationally with prioritization in the golden triangle routes (BJ/SH/GZ)

Professional SCM practices, including related IT infrastructure, are slowly being adopted by the domestic industry

Efficiency gains are translating into price declines and, thus, total logistics costs

Large logistics

market in China

provides an

opportunity for TNT

Logistics

Page 19: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Company

2002 China

rev. (€ m)

Freight

forwarding

Network

coverage

Foreign

players

and JVs

Danzas–AEI

Exel-Sinotrans

Bax Global

APL Logistics

Regional

Regional

Coastal

Nationwide

Hutchison/T&B

ST-Anda

(Sembcorp)

N/A

23

Regional

Regional

Large

SOEs

COSCO Logistics

Sinotrans

Nationwide

Nationwide

Local

players

PG Logistics

JHJ

Huayuntong

EAS

Annto

Key customers

Alcatel, Shell, Unilever, Bristol-

Myers Squibb, Heineken

Nokia, Legend, Siemens,

Samsung, HP, Ford, LVMH

HP/Compaq, Lucent, Motorola

IKEA, GM

P&G, Mead Johnson,

Warner-Lambert, B&Q

Colgate, J&J, Kraft, ESSO

P&G, Philips, Electrolux,

Budweiser, Bayer

Motorola, Siemens

Electrolux, Philips, Kraft,

Cadbury, Kimberley-Clark,

Arche, Robust

IBM, Dell, HP

Avon, Dell, Midea

33

63

10

250

23

Regional

Regional

Regional

Multiregional

Regional

Warehousing

inventory mgmt

Domestic

transportation

VAS (e.g.

SCM)

N/A

N/A

17

113

1

N/A

SGM, Volkswagen

Panasonic, Philips, Acer,

Unicom, Ericsson, Michelin

Active competitors

Page 20: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

15.7

4.2

to

4.9

8.1 to

9.3

Estimated automotive market

Million units

2002 2006 2010

Increasing wealth of population

45 million new middle income and 26 million

new high income households by 2010

Favorable auto consumption environment

30% reduction in car tax

Auto financing available

Reduced insurance costs due to deregulation

Improving road infrastructure

Manufacturers have responded by aggressively increasing planned capacity

Annual capacity increases of 1 million plus passenger cars

New models and designs increasing diversity

18-19% CAGR

Key Drivers

U.S.

in

2010

1.11.01.1Buses

Trucks

Cars

1.5 1.7

1.72.2

12.0-13.2

7.4-8.1

3.2

Strong growth of automotive market

Page 21: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

OEMs are focused on:

Sourcing and supply chain infrastructure to increase

efficiencies and reduce cost

Incumbents want to improve existing supply chain

management and lower supply chain costs

New entrants currently have RFPs out to establish

efficient supply chains for new production facilities

Customizing product design to meet customers’ tastes

and requirements to win market share from competition

Delivering distinctive brand experience through high

quality customer interactions at dealerships

Increasing availability of financing to customers to

maintain sales growth momentum

Increased competition is putting pressure on OEM

margins

Significant capacity addition and intensifying

competition has led to declining retail prices and

consequently increased pressure on OEM margins

Priority for OEMs to reduce cost by improving supply

chain management and infrastructure

China retail price evolution

for Honda Accord 2.3L

US$

35,900

31,300

12.8%

Nov 02 Jan 03

Chine retail price

evolution for GM Buick

Sail 1.6L SLX

US$

14,400

13,000

10%

Nov 02 Jan 03

Focus on Supply Chain and product variety/customisation

Page 22: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Automotive outsourced logistics market

€ Billions

Automotive logistics estimated at €2.5-3.0 Billion by 2010

Automotive outsourced

logistics market

2002 2006 2010

0.8

1.5-1.8

2.5-3.0

Automotive market

logistics spend

2002 2006 2010

4.1

5.5-6.5

7.2-8.5

Outsourced logistics

spend

2735

19%

2002 2006 2010

Industry revenues

Logistics costs

2002 2006 2010

86

129-152

179-211

4.3 4.04.8%

2002 2006 2010

Page 23: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Local consumption

Increasing wealth of population

45 million new middle income and 26 million new high income households by 2010

Consumer electronics – Increasing competition (especially from local manufacturers) in consumer electronics leading to price decline and sharp increase in volume demand

Server/computers – Installation/modernization of corporate IT systems and development of nationwide IT networks

Telecom equipment – Completion of wireline and GSM telecom infrastructure and building of nationwide 3G network

Exports

Development of China as global manufacturing base by both MNCs and local players

Transfer of ~30-40% of global production to China by 2010 (e.g. Motorola‟s handset production is already today done exclusively in China)

Leveraging China‟s skilled workforce, significant factor cost advantage and rapidly improving labor productivity

Key Drivers

Electronics driven by domestic and export consumption

Strong demand for electronics in China

High production growth for domestic

sales and exports

Total shipments

Million

New mobile subscribers

Millions

HANDSET

EXAMPLE

HANDSET

EXAMPLE

10.5 23.138.8

29.5

40.0

29.0

2000 2002 2004

Domestic

Exports

CAGR =

41%

44.654.5

77.3

2000 2002 2004

CAGR =

15%

Page 24: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Estimated 2010 revenues of key players

€ Billions

14.4

13.5

13.0

12.4

10.6

7.4

7.4

7.0

6.7

6.5

6.3

5.6

5.3

4.8

4.7

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

2.5

Putian

Haier

Samsung

Philips

Motorola

Matsushita

Legend

Sony

SVA

Siemens

Nokia

Ericsson

IBM

LG

Panda

TCL

Intel

SB Alcatel

Huawei

ZTE

MNC

Key customer characteristics and requirements

Predominantly MNCs, but local players growing

rapidly

National contracts are possible; contracts

currently being consolidated into 1-2 providers

High preference for logistics provider to

manage entire value chain (i.e. including freight

forwarding)

Freight forwarding capabilities crucial for

inbound sourcing of components and for

exports of finished goods

IT capabilities that can be linked to enable

timely and accurate information flow are

required

Low willingness to share common warehouses

and transportation

Key players account for ~30% of the market

Local

Page 25: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Electronics outsourced logistics market

€ Billions

Electronics logistics estimated at €3.5 Billion by 2010

Electronics outsourced

logistics market

2002 2006 2010

0.3

1.6

3.5

Electronics market

logistics spend

Outsourced logistics

spend

2002 2006 2010

6.58.0

9.9

Industry revenues

Logistics costs

2002 2006 2010

215293

398

2.82.5

3%

2002 2006 2010

20

35

4%

2002 2006 2010

Page 26: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Overall FMCG market growing with GDP

Steady growth in GDP per capita is expected to drive

increasing demand for FMCG

Manufacturers are projected to continue to increase

capacity and output to meet increasing demand

Real GDP per capita 1990-2010

US$

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

90-01

CAGR 9%

01-10

CAGR 7%

WEFAEIU

Processed food, beverage and tobacco gross

industrial output

US$ Billions

38.1

53.5

82.5

2002 2006 2010

CAGR =

10.1%

Increase in disposable income as a result of increase in per capita GDP increase

Average disposable income in urban areas expected to grow 14.5% annually from US$950 in 2002 to US$3,700 in 2010

Improvement of distribution channels to reach large population in sub-urban and rural areas (in 2002, about 40% of retail sales in top 34 cities representing 14% of population)

Rapid growth of modern retail formats (e.g. hypermarkets) across China

Increasing customer sophistication resulting in changes in consumer attitude and behavior

Higher demand for a wider range/variety of products

Increased preference for higher price branded products

Higher preference for convenient packaged products

Key Drivers

Page 27: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Fragmented industry but many large MNCs

Estimated 2010 revenues of key MNCs

€ Millions

Key customer characteristics and requirements

Many large MNCs present in China which can

be targeted

Dense regional network to enable “speedy”

distribution

Reliable and accurate information feedback is

an important service requirement

Even with consolidation across BUs, smaller

contract size due to customer preference to use

a minimum of two 3PL providers for risk

diversification and regional nature of contracts

Low willingness to share common warehouses

and transportation

2,000

1,900

1,500

1,400

1,200

710

610

515

450

400

Danone

Unilever

Nestle

P&G

Kraft

Coca-Cola

J&J

Kimberly

Clark

Pepsi

Reckitt

Beckinser

Page 28: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

FMCG outsourced logistics market

€ Billions

* Addressable market is defined as contracts larger than € 1 million

Source: Global Insight/WEFA; Morgan Stanley; expert and customer interviews; team analysis

FMCG outsourced

logistics market

2002 2006 2010

0.31.0

2.0

FMCG market logistics

spend

Outsourced logistics

spend

2002 2006 2010

8.710.9

13.6

9.0

15.0

3%

2002 2006 2010

Industry revenues

Logistics costs

2002 2006 2010

145199

272

5.5 5.06%

2002 2006 2010

FMCG logistics estimated at €2.0 Billion by 2010

Page 29: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Agenda

• Introduction to TPG

• China

• Our markets in China

• Logistics

• Express

• Mail

a)TPG and China

Page 30: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

China’s express market will grow rapidly to 2010 …

China’s express market will reach €6.7 Billion by 2010

… driven by China’s expected closing

of gap in express market penetration

Size of total parcel and express

market/GDP, 2002

Percent

0.45

0.43

0.43

0.41

0.39

0.35

0.30

0.26

0.25

0.22

0.22

0.21

0.14

U.S.

Japan

Germany

France

Canada

UK

Czech

Brazil

Poland

China

0.25-0.35

South Africa

By 2010

Italy

€ Billions

1.11.6

2.23.1

4.10.8

1.2

1.8

2.6

1.6

2.4

3.4

4.9

6.7

0.5

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

18%

23%

20%

CAGR

International express

Corresponds to 0.35 penetration; to grow faster than domestic in line with expectations of industry sources

Corresponds to 0.25 penetration

Domestic express

Sixth largest express market in the world

in 2010 Australia

Page 31: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Players Coverage

Performance

(Transport

days)

End-to-

end

control

Foreign players

DHL

UPS

FedEx

TNT

Local players

EMS

CAE

CRE

Time-

Definite

Door-to-

door T & T

318 cities

218 cities

210 cities

200 cities

~2000 cities

~290 cities

190 cities

Key domestic and foreign players in China

1 day

1 day

1 day

1 day

1 day

1 day

2~3 days

Value Proposition

Industry landscape

International parcel

services are widely

available; all major

international providers

are established

Most international

players partner with

Sinotrans for local

pick-up and delivery

Only on significant

domestic provider:

China Post with its

EMS product

Page 32: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Agenda

• Introduction to TPG

• China

• Our markets in China

• Logistics

• Express

• Mail

a)TPG and China

Page 33: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

China Post

Express

17%

Mail

72%

Others

11%

China Post Bureau is both an administration authority and a public enterprise, responsible for the regulatory functions of national postal industry and the management of national postal enterprises

Total revenue is EUR 5.7bil and profit of EUR 13.4 mil in 2002

No of employees: 496,000

Revenue split by activityDescription

Key Financials

20022000 2001

Revenue

Profit

-698 -341

6 13

4,3984,882

5714

3,834

1999

Logistics Network – 2002

• No of vehicles: 39,000• No of airplanes: 10• No of ship: 10• Post Offices: 76,000• No of post routes: 21,000• Length of trunk routes: 3 mil

km• EMS collection point: 1,988

• Covers 28 provinces and

304 cities

• 2 days delivery time

Page 34: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Agenda

• Introduction to TPG

• China

• Our markets in China

• TPG and China

a) current position

b) future

Page 35: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

TNT International Express China

Branches starts business operations by end 2003

Branches already in business operations

Beijing

Shanghai

GuangzhouXiamen

Qingdao

Fuzhou

Hangzhou

Shenzhen

WuhanNanjing

Dalian

Tianjin

Xi’an

Chengdu

Chongqing

Kunming

Haikou

Zhuhai

Chengsha

Hefei

Wuxi

Suzhou

Zhengzhou

Jinan

Ningbo

Gateways

• 25 branches, increasing to 50 depots in

2004

• Develop to 2,000 services points in 500

cities via China Post services

• Hub & spoke system with 7 gateways by

end 2003

• 174 brand new vehicles

• 136 PUD vans

• 24 gateway vehicles

• 14 motorcycles

• New data hub in Shanghai,

all branches online to

TNT Express IT in UK

Page 36: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

China Logistics Milestones

Auto Logistics:• Formed big JV in 2002 and became No.1 Logistics

supplier in Auto Industry, with over € 100m annual

revenue

• Won € 150m contract for 5 years on SVW inbound

service

• Well positioned for organic growth in SAIC & Non

SAIC Accounts

Non Auto Logistics: • Very small at present, active in Chemical sectors

only

Page 37: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

VDC

VSC

Dealer

Anji Logistics is one of the largest logistics service providers (LSP) in China

Their major business today is in finished car distribution,

largest contracts with SVW and GM

From the Vehicle Distribution

Centre (VDC) in Shanghai,

Anji distributes the cars to

dealers via 23 vehicle

storage centres (VSC)

Key Figures (2001):

95 mil Euro revenue

638 employees

200,000 cars p.a.

180 daily trips

90,000 m² warehousing

Anji Logistics

Page 38: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Agenda

• Introduction to TPG

• China

• Our markets in China

• TPG and China

a) current position

b) future

Page 39: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

WTO accession will open up many areas

Post-WTO foreign

ownership norms

No change

100% in 2004

100% in 2005

100% in 2005

100% in 2005

100% in 2007

? (no draft agreement)

Minority foreign ownership; Chinese flag

Current foreign

ownership norms

100% ownership allowed

<50% ownership

<50%

<50%

No foreign ownership (China Post, Chinese airlines monopolies)

<50% for international parcels

<50%

Chinese licencees only

No foreign ownership

Area

Warehousing

Trucking

Freight forwarding/ 3PL

Customs brokerage

Express and air parcel

Rail services

Air cargo

Maritime/shipping

Open

Closed

Page 40: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

A phased approach to business building

Expansion plans for all three businesses:

logistics: expand current automotive position to other OEMs and

strengthen position in other sectors

express: accelerate growth through discussions with China Post

mail: get involved in restructuring and privatisation of CP

Clear go/no-go decisions on acquisitions and on people and

capital

Clearly defined the milestones for 2004

Identified critical managerial and professional resource

requirements for 2004

Top management team has been appointed

BoM is committed to identify the required resources by end of Q1

Page 41: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Examples

Siemens

Samsung

Independent business units with

nominal China Corporate Center

Mail China

Logistics China

Express China

China Corporate

Center

Mail Logistics Express

TPGHQ

NL

China

Examples

P&G

Ricoh

Coca-Cola

Geography-focused driven by strong

China Corporate Center

Mail China

Logistics China

Express China

China corporate

center

Mail Logistics Express

TPGHQ

NL

China

Examples

Sony

Business units as drivers with

coordinating China Corporate Center

Mail China

Logistics China

Express China

China Corporate

Center

Mail Logistics Express

TPGHQ

NL

China

Three possible management structures

Page 42: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Finding the best management structure

Responsiveness to

local markets

Consistency of

customer/gov’t/

SOE interface

Consistent products

and services with

HQ

Independent global BUs

Cross-divisional

coordination and

resource sharing

Slower response as

business is run from HQ

Multiple customer interfaces;

uncoordinated KAM and

negotiations

Direct reporting ensures high

level of consistency

Key TPG

considerations

High BU power leads to low

level of coordination

Strong China center

Fast adjustments as

business run locally

One face to China,

coordinated negotiations

Lower consistency as link

up to HQ not direct

High coordination due to

strong center

Coordinating China center

Relatively fast response

as key activities

coordinated

KAM and relationship

mgmt will achieve singular

interface

Direct reporting ensures

high level of consistency

Key functions identified

under China center

coordinated

High

Low

Board attention to

China

Attention high only if

divisions raise to Board

China as a separate

business will have full

attention from the Board

Individual divisions still

drive Board attention

Not preferred as coordination is

low and BUs may not be

sufficiently dedicated to China

Theoretically the best option but

added burden to divisions and

low Board attention

Best fallback option if senior

management is committed to

make this work

Access to global

resources

Usually coordinated, but

BUs may prioritize other

opportunities

Top down actions required

to ensure resources are

allocated

Shared accountability

creates incentive to

cooperate

Page 43: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Preferred option

TNT ChinaExpress

TNT ChinaLogistics

TPG China Mail

CEO

TNT Express

TNT Logistics

TPG Mail

China Freight

Forwarding

Marketing

KAM

Finance

Network planning

External relations

CFO

Express Board

Logistics Board

MailBoard

TNT China Board

TPG Board of

Management

Coordination of

products/services

on global basis

Quality

standards

New

products

Support TNT

China especially

by dedicating key

personnel

KAM liaison with

China

Inputs to

developing China

strategy

Division

performance

evaluation to

include how it has

supported China

Key responsibilities

of global divisions

to China businessOverall P/L

responsibilities for

China

Business planning

and budgeting for

each China unit

Coordination of

resources with mail,

express, and

logistics divisions

Running of key

functions for “one

company approach”

KAM in China

Marketing/

branding

Network

planning

Relationship

management/P

R

Finance, admin,

legal

Key responsibilities

of TPG China

Page 44: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Other subjects looked into

Detailed financial planning until 2010

Optimal tax structure

Training (TPG university)

Advertising and branding

Financing strategy

Relationship management

Page 45: Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and ... · Supply Chain Management Conference 2004 Mail, Express and Logistics in China: Challenges and Opportunities China at the

Supply Chain Management Conference 2004

Key Factors of Success

Strategic

• Vision

• First mover advantage

• Preferred partnerships

• Market leadership

• Innovation

• Cost structure

• Formulating a specific, aspirational statement or goal for positioning

• Being first in offering specific products/services or offering to specific

customers/customer segments

• Establishing partnerships with partners that are able to deliver real

business value

• Capturing a leading market share in specific customer segments or

geographies

• Developing the most innovative products tailored to the needs of the

China market

• Achieving a cost structure able to compete with local competitors

Area Key factor of success

Operational

• Acquisition integration

• Investment funding

• Alliance management

• Cost management

• Product/service localization

• Business development

• Image

• Regulator engagement

• Capability to execute integration activities while continue to growth the

business

• Making sufficient investment resources available to realize the vision/

aspiration

• Developing clear measurable JV performance metrics early intervention

in case of alliance underperformance

• Ability to introduce operational excellence into Chinese context

• Capability to assess and understand the local demand characteristics

and develop and market

• Ability to generate new business a rapidly changing market environment

• Ability to a develop superior brand recognition

• Skill of understanding and addressing the needs of the government

Description

Organizational

• Senior leadership

• China BU

• Management continuity

• Talent

• Performance management

• Regular China visits by senior management and

• Creating a direct reporting/communication structure from China

management to CEO

• Recruiting a China management team that is committed to remain in

position for 5-10 years

• Attracting qualified expats while recruiting and developing local

staff/managers

• Create incentives to attract and develop local and expat managers in a

high growth environment