Main Project Sponsors and ContributorsMain Project Sponsors and Contributors

Research Team Blind Prediction CommitteeResearch Team Blind Prediction Committee• Steve Mahin, UC Berkeley• José I. Restrepo, UC San Diego• Ian Buckle, UN Reno• Matthew J. Schoettler, UC San Diego• Francesco Carrea, UC San Diego• David Duck, UC San Diego• Gabriele Guerrini, UC San Diego• Elide Pantoli, UC San Diego• Mike Keever, Caltrans• Mark Mahan, Caltrans• Cliff Roblee, Caltrans• Tom Shantz, Caltrans• Phil Yin, FHWA

• Steve Mahin, Chair• José I. Restrepo• Vesna Terzic, UC Berkeley• Matthew J. Schoettler

NEES@UCSD & UCSD PersonnelNEES@UCSD & UCSD Personnel• Dan Radulescu• Andy Gunthardt• Robert Beckley• Darren McKay• Steve Morris• Lony Rodriguez• Alex Sherman• Jeff Rivor• Brad Durant• Matteo Orio

Overall Objectives of the Test ProgramOverall Objectives of the Test Program

• Observe and document the nonlinear dynamic response up to collapse of a full-scale bridge column designed as per Caltrans SDC

• Observe scale effects with shake table testing of columns being carried out at UC Berkeley

• Landmark test offering practitioners and researchers the chance to blindly predict the response of the test structure, to investigate epistemic uncertainty in nonlinear modeling and to enhance future modeling techniques

Test Specimen Features and InstrumentationTest Specimen Features and Instrumentation

• 4ft diameter by 24 ft tall column• 260 ton inertial mass• 272 sensors sampled at 240 Hz• 3 GPS-50 Hz differential stations

August 4 September 2856 days

Blind Prediction Earthquake SequenceBlind Prediction Earthquake SequenceLoma Prieta 1989 Kobe 1995

Design EQ

LP

EQ5 Takatori (80%)EQ5 Takatori (80%)

Blind Prediction DataBlind Prediction Data

Measured unit weight: 150 pcf

Stress- Strain Relationship #11 Bar (US Cust. Units)

0

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0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14

Strain

Stre

ss (k

si)

Concrete

Hoops

Longitudinal Reinforcement

QuestionnaireQuestionnaireNOTE: Values should be reported in absolute termsNOTE: y=0.0 is at the platen surface

1 Relative horizontal displacement (mm) at level 6: y=8.534-m: EQ1 EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 EQ6Maximummaximum

2 Total horizontal acceleration (g) at level 6: y=8.534-m: EQ1 EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 EQ6Maximummaximum

3 Bending moment (kN-m) at level 0: y=1.219-m: EQ1 EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 EQ6Maximummaximum

4 Shear force (kN) at level 0: y=1.219-m: EQ1 EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 EQ6Maximummaximum

5 Average curvature (rad/km) between y = 1.270 and 1.473 m EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 EQ6Maximummaximum

6 Average axial strain (x106) between y = 1.270 and 1.473 m EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 EQ6Maximummaximum

7 Relative residual displacement (mm) at level 6: y=8.534-m: EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 EQ6

8 Largest column compressive axial force (kN)at level 0: y=1.219-m: EQ1 EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 EQ6

9 Mode of failure (type corresponding number):1: None

Specify if "Other": 2: Column shear failure3: Column longitudinal bar anchorage failure4: Column hoop fracture5: Column longitudinal bar fracture6: Other

Predicted Quantitiy

• Two Categories: Researchers and Engineering Professionals• 41 entries from 14 countries

ResponsesResponses

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hor

izon

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dis

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emnt

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Experiment

Winner-RWinner-EP1

Winner-EP2

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. D

ispl

acem

ent

(mm

)

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1

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n (g

)

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ax.

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al A

ccel

erat

ion

(g)

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max

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ding

mom

ent(kN

-m)

Experiment

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Winner-EP2

ResponsesResponsesM

ax.

Ben

ding

Mom

ent

(kN

-m)

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com

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sive

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ce (kN

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Experiment

Winner-RWinner-EP1

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Max

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xial

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pres

sion

(kN

)

Static

Blind Prediction WinnersBlind Prediction Winners

• Researchers: ………………………………………………

• Eng. Professionals:………………………………………………

………………………………………………

Zhe Qu, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan

Bill Tremayne, Holmes Culley, San Francisco

Lawrence Burkett, Rutherford & Chekene, San Francisco

Certificates of DistinctionCertificates of Distinction

• António Arêde & team, University of Porto, Portugal• Otton Lara & team, Escuela Superior Técnica del Litoral, Ecuador• Farzin Zareian & team, UC Irvine

Engineering Professionals

Researchers

• Eric Kelley, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Inc.• Andreas Schellenberg, Rutherford & Chekene

EQ8: Takatori 100%EQ8: Takatori 100%