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MAIN RESULTS OF SPACE MONITORING OF
VEGETATION COVER ON THE TERRITORY OF
KAZAKHSTAN FOR THE PERIOD 2000-2015
Batyrbayeva Madina, Muratova Nadia, Spivak Lev (1), Irina Vitkovskaya
JSC "National Center for Space Research and Technology", Kazakhstan
1 International University of Nature, Society and Man "Dubna", Russia
IAAE Inter-Conference Symposium Agricultural Transitions along the Silk Road
Restructuring, Resources and Trade
in the Central Asia Region
4 - 6 April 2016 | Almaty, Kazakhstan
- operational monitoring, including mapping the current
state of crops and natural vegetation, early recognition
of drought and areas under dry conditions;
- analysis of seasonal dynamics of vegetation and
assessment of damage from drought;
- analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of
vegetation development for a multiyear period; drought
risk assessment
THE SYSTEM OF SPACE MONITORING OF VEGETATION COVER
(state and changes) BY LONG-TERM SERIES OF VEGETATION
INDEXES
Time series of vegetation indexes calculated from satellite data of low resolution
were used to characterize and describe the state of vegetation and its variations in
Kazakhstan for the growing season (April-September) of the period 2000-2015
Indicators of drought conditions based on NDVI-distribution
A2
A1 A3
B2
А4
B1
C
0
0,1
0,3
0,4
0,2
(Jiaguo Qi, Phil Heilman, Haiyan
Remote sensing methods for land
degradation)
A1 - the date of the beginning of the
growing season
A2 - the date of NDVI max
A3 - the date of the end of the
growing season
A4 - the duration of the growing
season
B1 - the value of NDVI max
B2 - integral vegetation index IVI
B3 - a deviation of IVI from IVI min
0-20% - amount of green biomass is
close to multi-year minimum;
21-40% - amount of green biomass
below the long-term average (normal);
41-60% - amount of green biomass is
close to the long-term average
(normal);
61-80% - amount of green biomass
above the long-term average (normal);
81-100% - amount of green biomass is
close to multi-year maximum.
Seasonal dynamics of NDVI, Akmola
oblast, 2012
max
2012
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
1d_a
pr
2d_a
pr
3d_a
pr
1d_m
ay
2d_m
ay
3d_m
ay
1d_j
une
2d_j
une
3d_j
une
1d_j
uly
2d_j
uly
3d_j
uly
1d_a
vg
2d_a
vg
3d_a
vg
1d_s
ept
2d_s
ept
3d_s
ept
декада
ND
VI
min max средн.многолетнее 2012
May, 2 ten-days min mean
Ideology of VCI-index
VCI = 100 (NDVImax – NDVI) /
(NDVImax –NDVImin)
0
VCI, %
20 40 60 80 100
may
june
july
august
september
1 decade 3 decade 2 decade
Dynamic of ten-days VCI values, 2010
VCI-maps allow visualization of the location and development of the sites of depression of vegetation
0
VCI, %
20 40 60 80 100
1 decade 3 decade 2 decade
may
june
july
august
september
Dynamic of ten-days VCI values, 2012
Digital matrix of IVCI allow visualization of the location of the sites of depression vegetation
Dynamic of integral vegetation condition index IVCI values on Kazakhstan
for 2000-2015
THE ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC OF
VEGETATION COVER OF KAZAKHSTAN
BY LONG SERIES OF SATELLITE
INDICES
DROUGHT DETECTION
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
год
ко
эф
фи
ци
ен
т л
ин
ей
но
го
тр
ен
да
Алматинская
ЮКО
Жамбылская
Кызылординская
Карагандинская
Акмолинская
СКО
Костанайская
ВКО
Павлодарская
Актюбинская
ЗКО
Мангыстауская
Атырауская
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
год
ко
эф
фи
ци
ен
т л
ин
ей
но
го
тр
ен
да
Алматинская
ЮКО
Жамбылская
Кызылординская
Карагандинская
Акмолинская
СКО
Костанайская
ВКО
Павлодарская
Актюбинская
ЗКО
Мангыстауская
Атырауская
Алматинская
ЮКО
Жамбылская
Кызылординская
Карагандинская
Акмолинская
СКО
Костанайская
ВКО
Павлодарская
Актюбинская
ЗКО
Мангыстауская
Атырауская
There is decrease of IVI index
values (the total amount of green
biomass in growing season) and
IVCI (characteristic of influence
of weather on vegetation)
Coefficient values in the
equations of the line trend show
the rate of decrease of IVCI
Tendencies of long-term changes of the integral index of the growing season for the regions
of Kazakhstan
Zoning of the Kazakhstan territory by the
values of the coefficients in linear trend
equations of long-term changes of IVCI
(scale of oblasts) Значения коэффициента в уравнении линейного
тренда распределения IVCI (2002-2012)
-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07
Значения коэффициента в уравнении линейного
тренда распределения IVCI (2002-2012)
-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07
The values of the coefficient in the equation of
the linear trend of IVСI-distribution
coef
fici
ent o
f li
nea
r tr
end
of
IVС
I
Zoning of the North Kazakhstan oblasts by the values of the coefficients in
linear trend equations of long-term changes of IVCI (scale of districts)
Значения коэффициента в уравнении линейного
тренда распределения IVCI (2002-2012)
-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07
Значения коэффициента в уравнении линейного
тренда распределения IVCI (2002-2012)
-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07-0,02 -0,06-0,05-0,04-0,03 -0,08-0,07
The values of the coefficient in the equation of
the linear trend of IVСI-distribution
There is a positive trend of increasing of zones areas with
IVCI <30%, which characterizes the growing impact of
drought conditions on vegetation productivity in Kazakhstan
The areas of Kazakhstan’s oblasts with values IVCI <30%
(IVCI <30% - drought, close to multiyear minimum)
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0о
тно
си
тел
ьн
ая
пл
ощ
ад
ь у
частк
ов
с I
VC
I<0,3
, %
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Акмолинская Костанайская СКО Карагандинская Актюбинская ЗКО
are
a w
ith
lo
w v
alu
es I
VC
I/a
rea
of
ob
last
, %
1
2
3
4
Zoning on the base of frequency of droughts
(IVCI values <30%) during 2000-2015 years
100%
1 3 5 971 3 5 97 11 13
Частота появления низких значений IVCI (0-30%)
1 3 5 971 3 5 97 11 13
Частота появления низких значений IVCI (0-30%)The frequency of low values of the IVCI-index
Factors, that should be considered for monitoring and
prediction of drought :
- conditions of the previous growing season (a priori
estimate, map the frequency of droughts)
- snowmelt regime (snow melt dates; areas, freed from the snow)
- phase of the solar cycle
The duration of drought describes the continuous time interval during which the drought was
recorded at the site. Duration of drought conditions conveniently determined by NDVI-curve.
The intensity of drought characterizes the degree of its impact on the productivity of plant
biomass.
Evaluation of season changes in productivity of vegetation
on the territory of Kazakhstan
Zones of different vegetation productivity
0 – 0.1
0.1 – 0.2
0.2 – 0.3
0.3 – 0.4
> 0.4
IVI / IVImax
2008 2002
Areas of zones of different vegetation productivity on the Kazakhstan territory
(defined by the IVInorm values, 2000-2015)
2002
2004
2002
2004y = 0,122x + 19,074
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
пл
ощ
ад
ь з
он
ы/ п
ло
щад
ь Р
К, %
0,2-0,3
y = -0,6006x + 20,791
y = -1,5549x + 31,457
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
пл
ощ
ад
ь з
он
ы/ п
ло
щад
ь Р
К, %
0,3-0,4 0,4-1
The average zone is shifted
to south (460 - 490 N) for all
the wet years, and to the
north (47030‘- 540 N) - for
all the dry years
y = 1,3999x + 11,98
y = 0,633x + 16,69
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
пл
ощ
ад
ь з
он
ы/ п
ло
ща
дь
РК
, %
0-0,1 0,1-0,2
wet
droughty
Location of zone with IVInorm (0,2-0,3) in the
territory of Kazakhstan for various weather conditions z
on
e a
rea
/RK
are
a,%
zo
ne
are
a/R
K a
rea
,%
zo
ne
are
a/R
K a
rea,%
ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN THE
STATE OF NATURAL AND CULTIVATED
VEGETATION IN STEPPE ZONE OF
KAZAKHSTAN
2004
2005
2006
2007
0 0,1 0,3 IVInorm 0,4 0,2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Steppe zone of Kazakhstan 45E
56N
45E
40N
88E
56N
88E
40N Zoning of steppe zone of Kazakhstan by
vegetation productivity
48N
53N 2012
Areas with low values IVCI (less 0,3) located in the steppe zone of Kazakhstan
1 - forested steppe
2 - moderately arid steppes
3 - arid steppe
4 - moderately dry steppes
5 - dry steppe
6 - desert steppes
7 - northern desert
Subzones of steppe region of
Kazakhstan within the limits of the
transect:
transect
1
2
4
3
5
6
7
Seasonal dynamics of NDVI for areas with natural vegetation
Опустыненные степи, полигон 7
-0,15
-0,1
-0,05
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
1d
_fe
v
3d
_fe
v
2d
_m
art
1d
_a
pr
3d
_a
pr
2d
_m
ay
1d
_ju
ne
3d
_ju
ne
2d
_ju
ly
1d
_a
vg
3d
_a
vg
2d
_s
ep
t
1d
_o
ct
3d
_o
ct
2d
_n
ov
nd
vi
2004
2006
2008
2009
2010
2012
Опустыненные степи, полигон 7
-0,1
-0,05
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
0,4
1d
_fe
v
3d
_fe
v
2d
_m
art
1d
_a
pr
3d
_a
pr
2d
_m
ay
1d
_ju
ne
3d
_ju
ne
2d
_ju
ly
1d
_a
vg
3d
_a
vg
2d
_s
ep
t
1d
_o
ct
3d
_o
ct
2d
_n
ov
nd
vi 2001
2002
2006
NDVI dynamics for dry vegetation seasons Distributions of NDVI for different vegetation
seasons
16 6
14 11
15 10
16 9
18 4
14 9
16 3
14 12
16 7
16 4
15 7
15 2
5 10 15 20 25 30
длительность, количество декад
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
год
Moderately-
arid steppe
13 4
13 4
13 5
14 4
14 4
14 1
5 10 15 20 25 30
длительность, количество декад
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
год
Dry steppe
The duration of the period when passing through the value of NDVI = 0,3 (one of
the characteristics of the adverse conditions of the season)
Desert steppes Desert steppes
ND
VI
ND
VI
duration, number of decades duration, number of decades
yea
r
yea
r
Establishing of the relationship between yield of crops and remote sensing data
Akmola oblast Kostanai oblast
Denisovskii
Tselinograd Atbasar
Esil`
Kamisti
Initial data Remote sensing data ( VCI):
1) 1982-2010 (resolution of 16x16
km, 7-day composites);
2) 2000-2010 (resolution 1x1 km;
10-day composites);
3) Masks of cultivated land (2005;
2010)
Statistical data
(1982-2010).
1) crop yields;
2) acreage
Dependencies “Yield - Vegetation index
VCI" (data NOAA NESDIS, Tselinograd
district, Akmola oblast)
Целиноград 1982-1992
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
урожайность, ц/га
VC
I
Y = 0.0475x –
0.1693
R2 = 0.8483
Целиноград, 1982-2010
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
урожайность, ц/га
VC
I
1982-2010
1982-1992
2000-2010
Целиноград, 2000-2010
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
урожайность, ц/га
VC
I
Y = 0.0749x –
0.1987
R2 = 0.7965
1982-1992
1982-2010
2000-2010
Yield, c/ha
Yield, c/ha
Yield, c/ha
VC
I
VC
I
1982-2010
1982-1992
2000-2010
Spivak Lev, Professor, International
University of Nature, Society and
Man "Dubna", Russia
Vitkovskaya Irina,
Scientist Researcher, Ph.D. National
Center of Space Research and
Technologies, Kazakhstan,
Batyrbaeva Madina, Scientist
Researcher, Ph.D. National Center of
Space Research and Technologies,
Kazakhstan,
WELCOME to KAZAKHSTAN!
e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]