majority world report 2016 - web summit lisbon
TRANSCRIPT
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Majority World Report 2016Post-Brexit & Trump
@cape @localglobevc
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We’ve never been more networked
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But these same networks often only amplify our differences
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Driving political nationalism that sells independence based on division
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We have real visibility on amazing innovations in energy & transportation
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We are experiencing significant breakthroughs in machine learning and artificial intelligence
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We are ushering in a new age of human and machines
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But the majority world is still earning less than before, while needing to spend more to stand still
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Meanwhile the 1% minority has only become richer
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People feel strongly about income inequality
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Technology companies have changed the face of global capitalism in the last 15 years
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Extraordinary value has been created at an extraordinary pace
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Many of these emerging giants are now also being grown outside of Silicon Valley
Source: https://techcrunch.com/2014/10/28/the-us-breeds-the-most-unicorns-but-the-rest-of-the-world-is-catching-up/
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The Internet is now a fundamental part of Global GDP
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$40TN of value is still locked up within the Fortune 2000
Source: Fortune 2000 (2015) & Gartner Estimated IT spend %
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$30TN of which will be reallocated in next 10 years
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Media Entertainment Retail
$3TN already disrupted by current tech wave
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Transport Property Food
Now tech is advancing into more and more sectors
Energy
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Fortune 2000 invests $2TN a year on tech - to what end?
Source: Fortune 2000 (2015) & Gartner Estimated IT spend %
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Which part of this $40TN market will be able to fully embrace technology to innovate and grow?
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Fortune 500 disruption matters economically as there’s increasingly less of a public sector safety net
Changes in UK Parliamentary Spend (www.parliament.uk)
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We will feel even more political impact as millennial unemployment remains high in many major EU economies
Source: Statista, https://www.statista.com/chart/3644/youth-unemployment-still-unrelenting-in-europe/
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Lack of economic opportunities and austerity causing protests and unrest
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So while luxuries may feel closer to hand, the jobs and housing which stimulate well-being don’t
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This fear is most acute for millennials and parents
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Unicorn FTEs Zebras
160,000+ drivers
5,000+ Roos
640,000+ hosts
6,700
2,400
800
Meanwhile a new breed of tech businesses are starting to flip the idea of income and employment on its head
46,000 8,500,000+ sellers
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There will be many other new labour marketplace entrants
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Source: http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/blog/the-gig-economy-revolutionising-the-world-of-work-or-the-latest-storm-in-a-teacup/
Amplifying an already established trend of self-employment and freelancing marketplaces
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There are now over 120m Zebras on Facebook “interested in entrepreneurship”
● Independence● Control● Flexibility
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These Zebras are using new realities of self-employment to build an income and their own businesses
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Entrepreneurs are already over 5% of world’s population
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This isn’t a Silicon Valley thing, it’s a global phenomenon
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How do you create an industrial strategy for the many not just for the few?
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It’s not just about jobs - the UK is in a relatively good place for unemployment
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It’s not just about immigration - nearly 9m migrants already part of the UK labour market
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In fact, the UK is only G8 economy with an established entrepreneur’s visa program
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It’s partly about how governments adapt to a backdrop of profound change and widespread new technology realities?* (list from 2011)
1. Global Internet, Local Services
2. Broadband Everywhere
3. Mobile Devices
4. Cloud Computing
5. E-Commerce
6. Social Graph
7. Consumerization of IT
8. Incredibly low cost of Start Ups
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Tech realities which by 2016 have only accelerated and further evolved even as they repeat themselves...
1. Marketplaces & SaaS (again!)2. Messaging & Bots (again!)3. AI (again!)4. Security & Privacy (again!)5. Sharing & On-demand Economy6. Digital Transformation7. Zebras & NOMAD stack8. Automation - Drones, Cars & Robots9. Blockchain & Microservices
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The FTSE 100 have a market capitalization in excess of $2.7 Trillion, employ over 5,580,000 people and spend well over $60bn a year on IT
Source: Public company data, Gartner % IT Spend by Industry (2012) 40
FTSE 100 could see as much as $2TN of value displacement - with a real impact on employment
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Population: 240,595
Source: Camden Profile (2015), London Borough Profiles 2016, Camden Equality Taskforce Evidence Base(*) Poverty defined as 60% of national median income – currently equivalent to about £16,500.
Local economies will have to innovate or suffer as well
London’s 3rd largest economy (1.6% of UK GDP - larger than Estonia)
Home to 24,400 businesses including:
But 15-20% households still under poverty line*
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So now’s the time to choose something important and double down on Maslow’s web
Communications
Fashion
Discretionary Non-Discretionary
Media
Entertainment
Shopping
Travel
Energy
Housing
Education
Food
Finance
Health
Transport
Security
1993-2003 2004-2012 2012+
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But entrepreneurs aren’t afraid of the dark, so pick a big problem to solve
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We are all living with new uncertainties
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@cape♯majorityworld