making the case: the new economy of an aging population in ...€¦ · – increase of $2.6 in gdp...
TRANSCRIPT
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Making the Case: THE NEW ECONOMY
of an Aging Population in Metropolitan
Atlanta Mike Alexander, AICP Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission [email protected]
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For the First Time in Forever…… Fewer Births and less Migration Means FEWER “New” People
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Fertility
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2012/10/07/the-usas-total-fertility-rates-by-race-1980-to-2010/
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2012/10/07/the-usas-total-fertility-rates-by-race-1980-to-2010/
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Population Growth Comparison
United States 20-County Area Rest of Georgia (139 Counties)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2010 Change 2010-40
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2010 Change 2010-40
-50,000,000
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
2010 Change 2010-40
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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Long
evity
w
ww
.gap
min
der.o
rg
http://www.gapminder.org/
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Age and Sex in USA: 1945-2060
Source: Census Bureau National Projections 2012
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Who is Working is Changing
0.253
0.316
0.504
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ages 65-69 Ages 70-74 Ages 75+
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1.000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ages 16-19 Ages 25-29 Ages 45-54
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (10- County Area)
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NEW ECONOMIC STRENGTH
Billion in 65+ Wages
Actually, it is $960 million (2013)
• In 2013 Q1, those aged 65+ held 3.7% of the jobs in the 10-county ARC area
• The average monthly wage is $1,208 for those 65+, which does lag the overall average monthly wage for all others (18-64) in the workforce at $1,400
• …For some higher-paying industries, e.g. Professional Services, Mgmt. of Companies, average wages for 65+ are higher
• let’s compare to 2007 (just 5 years ago)… then to 2000
Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis)
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Growth in the 65+ Workforce
• From 2000-2007, the jobs for those 65+ did increase 16,802, BUT – Jobs for 18-64 increased 119,786
• The explosion in 65+ happened in recession and recovery period of 2007-2013
• Between 2007 and 2013 (recession and recovery), the 65+ workforce has increased by 14,846 jobs while the 18-64 job base has declined by 78,656 jobs!
• So jobs filled by 65+ went up almost 30%, while jobs filled by those aged 18-64 fell by 4%
2000 34,000
67,000 Increased by Almost 100%
2013
Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis)
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Rehearsing the Future using Economic
Forecasting
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WHAT DOES REMI SAY? REMI Econometric Model Features
• Incorporates transparent and robust economic linkages built on proven methods and theory
• Each model is custom built to match regional client specificity
• Measures economic impacts and responsive demographic and economic changes over time
• Model incorporates four unique quantitative methodologies
Integrated Dynamic
Structural Customized
Source: REMI
PresenterPresentation NotesDynamic … needs work
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Age Population Growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
In T
hous
ands
1990 To 2013 To 2040
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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Age Composition Change
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al P
opul
atio
n
1990 To 2013 To 2040
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Ages 85+
Ages 80-84
Ages 75-79
Ages 70-74
Ages 65-69
Ages 60-64
Extreme Aging
14
Thou
sand
s
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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82% 78% 71% 66% 61% 54%
17% 18% 22%
23% 25%
26%
4%
9%
1% 2% 3% 4% 7% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Regional Age By Race/Ethnicity 1990 to 2040
65% 54%
41% 37% 37% 34%
30%
33%
34% 33% 30%
27%
8%
9%
8% 16% 21% 24% 30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
66% 51%
42% 40% 36% 35%
29%
32% 37%
34% 32% 30%
7%
9%
3% 12% 14% 17% 23% 26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
74% 63%
52% 48% 45% 41%
23%
27% 31%
31% 30%
29%
7%
9%
2% 6% 10% 13% 17% 21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Age 0-14 Age 15-24
Age 25-64 Age 65+
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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Population Determinants
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040
Total Population in Millions
In T
hous
ands
Components
Net Econ migrants - All Natural Change Total Population
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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Region’s Employment Opportunity
15.746
8.465
4.459
21.228
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039
in T
hous
ands
Economic Migrants by Race/ Ethnicity
White-NonHispanic Black-NonHispanic Other-NonHispanic Hispanic
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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1990 Labor Force
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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Labor Force 2013
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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Labor Force 2040
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population Dimensions of Regional Growth
and Change
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
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Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
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Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Economic Benefits of “Retirees”
• Retirees bring incomes earned from outside of region
• Pension Payments, Social Security, and other retirement savings
• Outside income spent on housing, health care, consumer goods and services
• Attracting (or retaining) retirees can be viewed as an “export industry” of the region, similar to tourism
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Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Retirement Migration and the Economy
• Demand Side – Retirees have significant spending on goods and services – Consumption patterns differ for retirees (e.g. more health
care spending)
• Supply Side – Loss of labor force as baby boom moves from working to
retirement – Regions need to replace this labor force through natural
growth or in-migration
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Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
Source: REMI
REMI Retirement Migration Scenario
• FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC TRANSIGHT MODEL
• Assumptions – Annual increase of 1,000 65+ retired
migrants per year to 20-county economy from 2015-2040
– Distribution weighted on 65+ population in each county
– No explicit costs considered • Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not “net”
benefits) – Increase of $40B in Personal Income
2015-2040 – Increase of $7.8B in GDP 2015-2040 – Almost 100,000 more job-years for the
economy ‘15-’40 – Population increase of 16,000 by 2040
(LOSS across some other cohorts)
$40Billion More in Personal Income
$7.8Billion In Additional GDP
What if more retirees move to Metro Atlanta???
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Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
Source: REMI (ARC Analysis)
REMI Working Age Migration Scenario
• FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC TRANSIGHT MODEL
• Assumptions – Annual increase of 1,000 migrants aged
18-64 per year to 20-county economy from 2015-2040
– Distribution weighted on population aged 18-64 in each county
– No explicit costs considered • Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not “net”
benefits) – Increase of $4B in Personal Income
2015-2040 – Increase of $2.6 in GDP 2015-2040 – Almost 29,400 more job-years for the
economy ‘15-’40 – Population increase of 8,000 by 2040
$4Billion More in Personal Income
$2.6Billion In Additional GDP
What if more working age(18-64) people move to Metro Atlanta?
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Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population What You Need to know! • The New Economy is increasingly dependent on the
work of our 65+ population • These workers are already earning close to a BILLION
dollars a year in wages • In the future, these workers will add billions to our
regional economy in the future. • Attracting additional retirees to Metro Atlanta would
have strong positive impact to our Economy
• Seniors are a critical part of our economic competitiveness
Source: REMI (ARC Analysis)
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Making the Case: THE NEW ECONOMY
of an Aging Population
Mike Alexander, AICP Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission [email protected]
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(1)National Demographic Trends
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
2014
2030
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Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population (2)National Demographic Trends
2014-2030
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
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Regional Attractiveness
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039
Thou
sand
s
Net Ret Migrants Net Domestic Migrants Net Int. Migrant
Source: Plan 2040 Transportation Update, 2014
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National Labor Force Participation Rates by Race/ Ethnicity Estimated 1992-Projected 2022
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
1992 2002 2012 2022
Hispanic Asian White NH Black
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Region’s Labor Force
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Rate in
Tho
usan
ds
Regional Labor Market
Labor Force Participation rates
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
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Making the Case:�THE NEW ECONOMY �of an Aging Population in Metropolitan Atlanta�For the First Time in Forever……Fertility Population Growth ComparisonLongevityAge and Sex in USA: 1945-2060Who is Working is ChangingNEW ECONOMIC STRENGTHGrowth in the 65+ WorkforceRehearsing the Future using Economic Forecasting WHAT DOES REMI SAY?�REMI Econometric Model FeaturesAge Population GrowthAge Composition ChangeExtreme AgingRegional Age By Race/Ethnicity 1990 to 2040Population DeterminantsRegion’s Employment Opportunity1990 Labor ForceLabor Force 2013Labor Force 2040Dimensions of Regional Growth �and ChangeSlide Number 22Economic Benefits of “Retirees”Retirement Migration and the EconomyREMI Retirement Migration ScenarioREMI Working Age Migration ScenarioWhat You Need to know!Making the Case:�THE NEW ECONOMY �of an Aging Population�Slide Number 29Slide Number 30(1)National Demographic Trends(2)National Demographic Trends �2014-2030Regional AttractivenessNational Labor Force Participation Rates by Race/ Ethnicity �Estimated 1992-Projected 2022Region’s Labor ForceSlide Number 36