making the most of the highway safety...
TRANSCRIPT
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Making the most of the Highway Safety Manual
1
APWA Monterey Bay Training Conference June 28, 2016 Watsonville, CA Matt Braughton Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
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Agenda
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Highway Safety Manual (HSM) 1st Edition HSM Principles
HSM Applications HSM Part A – Introduction and Safety Fundamentals HSM Part B – Roadway Safety Management Process HSM Part C – Predictive Method HSM Part D – Crash Modification Factor
Corridor Example US 12 in Washington State
HSM Tools The Future HSM 2nd Edition Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act Caltrans Transportation Analysis Guide (TAG)
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HSM Principles
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The Highway Safety Manual…. Helps professionals support design decisions
Are 11 foot lanes different than 12 foot lanes?
Helps agency staff communicate with upper management, elected officials and the public. Why didn’t you put a signal there?
Saves money and helps better manage limited budgets.
Do we really need to buy that property to close that driveway?
Safety can be the differentiator between alternative solutions.
Safety as a priority is a federal initiative with increasing attention and increasing amounts of funding associated with it.
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Why do something different?
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Able to measure safety objectively (i.e., quantitatively) New tools build on and enhance current practice Improve reliability Provide new capabilities (e.g., predicting crashes) Able to quantify safety and compare with other project advantages and
disadvantages
Opportunities to incorporate new tools and methods in the near-term and plan for further integrating them in the long-term No need to do everything at once New tools/methods can provide value to decision making now
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Integrating Safety
Safety integration throughout project development process Quantify safety performance Comprehensively address safety issues Cost-effectively reduce crashes
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What is the HSM and how can it be used?
Quantifying Safety in Project Decisions Spending Limited Resources Wisely Guiding Improvements for...
– Networks – Corridors – Intersections
Managing Risk to Reduce Tort Liability
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Agenda
7
Highway Safety Manual (HSM) 1st Edition HSM Principles
HSM Applications HSM Part A – Introduction and Safety Fundamentals HSM Part B – Roadway Safety Management Process HSM Part C – Predictive Method HSM Part D – Crash Modification Factor
Corridor Example US 12 in Washington State
HSM Tools The Future HSM 2nd Edition Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act Caltrans Transportation Analysis Guide (TAG)
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HSM Content
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Part A – Introduction and Fundamentals 1: Introduction 2: Human Factors 3: Fundamentals
Part B – Roadway Safety Management Process 4: Network Screening 5: Diagnosis 6: Select Countermeasures 7: Economic Evaluation 8: Prioritization 9: Safety Effectiveness
Evaluation
Part D – Crash Modification Factors 13: Roadway Segments 14: Intersections 15: Interchanges 16: Special Facilities 17: Networks
Glossary
Part C – Predictive Method 10: Two-Lane Rural Highways 11: Multilane Rural Highways 12: Urban and Suburban Arterials
Plus… subsequently published “chapters” on various topics (i.e., Freeways and Interchanges)
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Part A – Introduction and Safety Fundamentals
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Factors Influencing Crashes
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Nominal Safety vs. Substantive Safety
Source: NCHRP 480
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Objective and Subjective Safety
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“Downtown is difficult as it is without having a roundabout death trap in it.” - Chico Enterprise - Record Posted: 03/08/2011
Objective – Measured
Subjective - Perceived SUBJECTIVE
Converting a traffic signal in an urban area to a roundabout reduces injury/fatal crashes by about 60%. – HSM 2010
OBJECTIVE
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Preferred Measure of Safety: Long Term Expected Average Crashes
Considered more reliable measure – minimizing influence of the randomness of crashes
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 5 10 15
Cra
shes
Years
Crashes Average
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Regression to the Mean
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Part B - Roadway Safety Management Process
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Roadway Safety Management Process
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Why invest resources in a safety management program? Key for cost effectively reducing crashes on roadways
TRB Special Report 300: Achieving Traffic Safety Goals in the United States U.S. lags behind other developed countries
Enables you to know where opportunities to improve exist Better positioned for funding Better equipped to reduce crashes with each dollar invested
What is a Roadway Safety Management Program? Multidisciplinary in scope – engineering, enforcement, education,
evaluation Includes meaningful goals, milestones, focus locations, treatments and
evaluating effectiveness
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Roadway Safety Management Process Chapters in Part B
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Network Screening
What sites have potential
for improvement?
Diagnosis
What pattern do crashes follow?
Select Countermeasures
What factors contribute to
crashes?
Economic Appraisal
What countermeasures
are cost-effective?
Prioritize Projects
What projects meet program objectives?
Safety Effectiveness
Evaluation
How effective were countermeasures?
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Example: City of Pasadena Safer Streets Program
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Purpose: Establish a process for identifying, prioritizing, and intervening at specific locations to reduce crashes
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City of Pasadena Safer Streets Program
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Context Motivated by desire to have a repeatable, technically sound process for
identifying and prioritizing safety investments Funded through Caltrans Office of Traffic Safety Grant Completed in September 2015
Scope of Activities Conducted city-wide crash analysis Integrated methods from Part B into existing City tools and practices Identified initial set of locations for field reviews Conducted field reviews and documented range of potential treatments
to reduce crashes
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City of Pasadena Safer Streets Program
Integrated methods from Part B… Reviewed and evaluated potential
network screening performance measures from the HSM
Identified performance measures for
near-term implementation Identified performance measures for
longer-term implementation Differentiation between near- and long-
term implementation based primarily on data needs and availability
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City of Pasadena Safer Streets Program
Incorporated three network screening performance measures from the HSM Critical Crash Rate Excess Proportion of a Specific Crash Type Probability of Specific Crash Types Exceeding a Threshold Proportion
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City of Pasadena Safer Streets Program
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Conducted Field Reviews and Identified Potential Changes Focus Intersection #1 Traffic Signal Control Observations
Intersection slightly skewed EB and WB left-turn movements
offset Signal phasing protected-permitted 33% of crashes occurred at night Bus stops and driveways adjacent to
intersection
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City of Pasadena Safer Streets Program
Focus Intersection #1 – Example Concept
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City of Pasadena Safer Streets Program
Conducted Field Reviews and Identified Potential Changes Focus Intersection #2 Two-way Stop Control
Intersection Observations
Minor street approaches offset Adjacent to school Uncontrolled crosswalk with in-
pavement flashing lights Bus stops adjacent to
intersection Flashing beacons for school
zone close to crosswalk treatments
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City of Pasadena Safer Streets Program Focus Intersection #1 – Example Concept
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City of Pasadena Safer Streets Program
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Example Summary of Potential Treatment Effectiveness
Treatment CMF Treatment
Name CMF Standard
Error
Potential Crash
Reduction Crash Type
and Severity
Road Diet Four to Three Lane Conversion
0.71 0.02 25% to 33% All Types, All Severities
Extend Red Curb Markings
Improve Triangle Sight Distance
0.63 -- 37%
All Types Series and Minor Injury Severities
Improve Triangle Sight Distance
0.89 0.15 8% to 14%
All Types, Property Damage Only Severity
Improve Triangle Sight Distance
0.44 -- 56% All Types, Fatal Severity
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City of Pasadena Safer Streets Program
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Outcomes Enables City to prioritize locations and investments on regular basis Improves responsiveness to local decision-makers Facilitates incorporating safety improvements into a range of different
activities Enables City to proactively apply for grants and other funding
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Part C – Predictive Method
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Overview of Methods for Estimating and Predicting Crashes
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Why estimate or predict crashes? Identifying potential countermeasures Designing new roadway and want to consider safety quantitatively Modifying existing roadway and want to consider safety quantitatively
What types of projects could this apply to? Corridor studies Intersection studies Access Management activities Capacity enhancements Development review process “Upgrades to an urban cross-section”
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Overview of Methods for Estimating and Predicting Crashes
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Traditional Approach Surrogates for Safety (e.g., standards, speed, number of conflict points)
Advantage – Simple and familiar Disadvantage – Indirect measures, need an existing condition
Crash Reduction Factors Advantages – Simple and limited data Disadvantages – Unreliable results (does not account for RTM), not always
able to account for variability in results
New Approaches HSM Predictive Method
Advantages – More reliable results (accounts for RTM), do not need an existing condition
Disadvantages – Slightly more expertise and data needed Crash Modification Factors (Discussed this afternoon)
Advantages – More reliable, able to account for variability in results Disadvantages – Slightly more expertise and data needed
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What is the Predictive Method?
Estimate Crashes per Year
Condition 1
Condition 2 P
hoto
Cou
rtesy
of Y
olan
da T
akes
ian
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When can you use the Predictive Method?
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Any time comparing changes crash frequency due to changes in cross-section or changes in traffic volume
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Example Application
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Powell Boulevard – Arterial Corridor Evaluation The Scenario:
A heavily used urban arterial in need of improvements Traditional traffic operations analysis did not find any clear “winners” among
the alternatives
The Question: Which alternative will best serve future needs of the corridor?
The Project Activities:
Conducted Safety and MMLOS evaluations Quantified Predicted Safety trade-offs between concepts
The Result:
Allowed ODOT to consider quantified safety information in their selection process
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Arterial Corridor Context
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22 Specific Alternatives in 5 Primary Groups
Group Description 1 Access Management and Intersection Modifications at 122nd 2 Different locations of left-turn lanes along SE Powell
Boulevard 3 Three-lane (TWLTL) roadway with different roadway element
widths 4 Three-lane (raised median) roadway with different roadway
elements 5 Existing conditions with different pedestrian features
Test these alternatives using HSM Predictive Method
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Year 2020 Analysis Results
Alt Group
Description % Crash Reduction
1 Access Management and Intersection Modifications near 122nd 0%1
2 Different locations of left-turn lanes along SE Powell Boulevard 1-3%2
3 Three-lane (TWLTL) roadway with different roadway element widths
21%
4 Three-lane (raised median) roadway with different roadway elements
19-27%3
5 Existing conditions with different pedestrian features 0%1
The Result: – Allowed ODOT to consider quantified safety information in their
selection process – Comprehensive assessment of alternatives created a better
understanding of tradeoffs
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Part D – Crash Modification Factors
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HSM Part D CMFs
Part D CMFs were included in HSM through a filtering process A Part D CMF will not adequately adjust an SPF to site-specific conditions Part D CMFs are standalone and may be applied more broadly. General application guidance is provided in the HSM. No more than THREE Part D CMFs should be multiplied with each other**
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CMF Standard Error in HSM Part D Chapters
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CMF Standard Error
CI = confidence interval
CMFx = CMF for condition x
SEx = Standard error for condition x
Analysis result will yield a range with 95% Confidence
xx SE2CMF(95%) IC ×±=
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Additional CMF Resource
FHWA CMF Clearinghouse Over 2500 CMFs
Over 700
countermeasures
Star Rating
http://www.cmfclearinghouse.org/
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Example Application
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US 26 at Dover Lane Road Safety Audit Project
US Highway intersection road safety audit Basic Project Question
What safety issues are present and how can they best be mitigated?
Project Activities
Crash history review Road safety audit Mitigation benefit/cost analysis for
high risk features Scoping letter to ODOT for safety
mitigations
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US 26 at Dover Lane RSA
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Intersection skew Obscured line of sight Deficient signing and striping
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US 26 at Dover Lane RSA – Benefit/Cost
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Mitigation benefit/cost analysis (a 3-page memo) Assembled crash reduction factors (CRF)
Estimated mitigation benefits: $241,000/year Estimated mitigation costs: $731,000 Benefit/cost ratio: 4.1
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US 26 at Dover Lane RSA
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Value to ODOT Expanded RSA effort to identify and
evaluate mitigations
Quantifiable safety benefits allow for benefit/cost and other project evaluation methods
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Agenda
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Highway Safety Manual (HSM) 1st Edition HSM Principles
HSM Applications HSM Part A – Introduction and Safety Fundamentals HSM Part B – Roadway Safety Management Process HSM Part C – Predictive Method HSM Part D – Crash Modification Factor
Corridor Example US 12 in Washington State
HSM Tools The Future HSM 2nd Edition Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act Caltrans Transportation Analysis Guide (TAG)
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US 12 Corridor Study: Integrating the HSM and Performance-Based Design Decisions
July 30, 2013 Erin M. Ferguson, P.E. Brian L. Ray, P.E.
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Context – Study Scope
Building off of a previous WSDOT Study A set of initial improvements
identified from WSDOT Those improvements were also
evaluated within project
Overarching Activities of the Project Review and Assess Crash Data
from MP 36 to 41 Identify Potential Improvements (in
addition to WSDOT Improvements) Evaluate Potential Safety Benefits
using Highway Safety Manual Compare Estimated Safety
Benefits and Costs
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US 12 Study Corridor in Washington State
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Context - Corridor-Wide Observations
Centerline Rumble Strips Present Paved Shoulders 2 to 4 feet in Width Western Portion of Corridor Relatively Steep Roadside Slopes Standing Water in Roadside Ditches
Westbound on US 12 from Sickman-Ford Rd
Eastbound along US 12 east of Blockhouse Road
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Context - Corridor-Wide Observations
Limited Visibility of Minor Road Intersections Observed Logging and Aggregate Trucks
SR 12 at Blockhouse Road
Eastbound Approach to SR 12/Blockhouse Road Intersection
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Context – Corridor Wide Observations
Speeds along the corridor generally exceed 55 mph
Posted Speed is 55 MPH
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Approach
Identify historic crash trends and patterns Define an improvement tool box Identify and evaluate potential solutions from the tool box Develop an interim and long-term safety improvements plans
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Findings – Historic Crash Patterns and Trends
Crash Types at Intersections Angle and Turning Crashes - 55% of total crashes Rear End Crashes – 26 % of total crashes
Crash Types on Roadway Segments Roadway or Lane Departure – 53 % of total crashes
Fixed Object (Left the roadway and struck a fixed object) Vehicle Overturned (Generally, left the roadway and overturned)
Contributing Factors at Intersections Failure to Yield Right-of-Way – 29% Excessive Speed -16%
Contributing Factors on Roadway Segments Excessive Speed – 26% Fatigue or Inattention – 23% Under the Influence – 9% Improper Passing – 4%
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Findings – Sample of Improvement Toolbox
Increase intersection and driver awareness
Based on NCHRP Report 613, Exhibit 3-1
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Findings – Sample of Improvement Toolbox
Increase intersection and driveway awareness
Pennsylvania – FHWA-HRT-08-063, Figure 9
NCHRP 613, Exhibit 4-2 (TXDOT)
Pennsylvania – FHWA-HRT-08-063, Figure 3
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Findings – Sample of Improvement Toolbox
Consider range of intersection traffic control
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Findings – Identify and Evaluate Potential Solutions
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Findings – Identify and Evaluate Potential Solutions
Estimated Cost-Effectiveness of Potential Improvements Calculated the cost per crash reduced over the design life of the improvement Used planning level cost-estimates Estimated change in crashes per improvement Incorporated 5-year design life for near-term improvements and 20-year
design life for long-term improvements
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Findings – Identify and Evaluate Potential Solutions
Draft Priority
Time Frame Location - Improvement
Expected Crashes/Yr
A
Estimated Percent
ReductionB
Planning Level Cost EstimateB
$/Crash Mitigated
Over Design Life
1N Near-Term Anderson Road Intersection- FHWA Lane Narrowing 2.2 31% $45,000 $13,196
2N Near-Term Anderson Road Intersection- FHWA Splitter Island 2.2 68% $112,500 $15,040
3N Near-Term Moon Road- FHWA Lane Narrowing 1.9 31% $45,000 $15,280
4N Near-Term Moon Road- FHWA Splitter Island 1.9 68% $112,500 $17,415
5N Near-Term Forstrom Road- FHWA Lane Narrowing 1.1 31% $45,000 $26,393
6N Near-Term Forstrom Road- FHWA Splitter Island 1.1 68% $112,500 $30,080
1L Long-Term Forstrom Road- Left Turn Lanes 1.1 48% $330,000 $31,250
- Near-Term Blockhouse Road - FHWA Lane Narrowing 0.9 31% $45,000 $32,258
- Near-Term Blockhouse Road- FHWA Splitter Island 0.9 68% $112,500 $36,765
2L Long-Term Blockhouse Road - Left Turn Lanes 0.9 48% $330,000 $38,194
3L Long-Term Moon Road- Access Restriction / Right Turn Lane 1.9 26% $610,000 $61,741
4L Long-Term Anderson Road- Single Lane Roundabout 2.2 71% $3.15
million $100,832
- Near-Term Sickman- Ford Road- FHWA Lane Narrowing 0.2 31% $45,000 $145,161
- Near-Term Sickman- Ford Road - FHWA Splitter Island 0.2 68% $112,500 $165,441
- Long-Term Sickman- Ford Road - Left Turn Lane 0.2 43% $330,000 $191,860
- Long-Term Anderson Road - Traffic Signal 2.2 36% $5.61 million $354,167
- Long-Term Blockhouse Road- Realign 0.9 19% $1.5 million $438,596
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Findings – Interim Safety Improvement Plan
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Findings – Long-Term Safety Improvement Plan
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Agenda
64
Highway Safety Manual (HSM) 1st Edition HSM Principles
HSM Applications HSM Part A – Introduction and Safety Fundamentals HSM Part B – Roadway Safety Management Process HSM Part C – Predictive Method HSM Part D – Crash Modification Factor
Corridor Example US 12 in Washington State
HSM Tools The Future HSM 2nd Edition Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act Caltrans Transportation Analysis Guide (TAG)
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HSM Tools
SafetyAnalyst by AASHTOWare Roadway Safety Management Tool
Implements Part B methods from HSM – Network-level review – Site-level treatments – Network-level prioritization
Incorporates benefit/cost prioritization methodology Performs effectiveness evaluation to determine safety benefits of treatments More information at http://www.safetyanalyst.org/
Software cost Single Work Station: $15,000/year Site License: $25,000/year
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HSM Tools
66
PlanSafe Planning-level safety performance analysis tool
Uses travel demand model output and crash data Provides ability to incorporate safety at planning level
Can be used to define safety performance measures Compare growth scenarios and large-scale projects
Limited to planning analyses Cannot evaluate site-specific safety treatments Should not be used to select land use or transportation investments
Data Needs Census and Zonal Data GIS Shapefiles Crash Data
Software cost Free More information here: http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/163790.aspx
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HSM Tools
67
HiSafe Calculate most stable performance measure, expected average crash
frequency Cost: $500 per license, no annual fee; sliding scale for multiple licenses More information available at: www.hisafe.org
NCHRP Spreadsheets Calculate most stable performance measure, expected average crash
frequency Cost: Free More information available at:
http://safetyperformance.org/resources/nchrp-17-38
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HSM Tools
68
IHSDM – HSM Predictive Method Estimates a design's expected safety and operational performance Includes 6 Modules
Crash Prediction Policy Review Design Consistency Traffic Analysis Driver/Vehicle and Intersection Review
Requires detailed design inputs Sensitive to subtle design elements across roadway segments Cost: Free More information available at:
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/research/tfhrc/projects/safety/comprehensive/ihsdm/index.cfm
Updates made Consistent with the HSM Part C and Supplemental Chapters
Additional Features (Not Related to the HSM)
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Agenda
69
Highway Safety Manual (HSM) 1st Edition HSM Principles
HSM Applications HSM Part A – Introduction and Safety Fundamentals HSM Part B – Roadway Safety Management Process HSM Part C – Predictive Method HSM Part D – Crash Modification Factor
Corridor Example US 12 in Washington State
HSM Tools The Future HSM 2nd Edition Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act Caltrans Transportation Analysis Guide (TAG)
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The Future
70
HSM 2nd Edition Effort to produce HSM, 2nd Edition currently in-progress Targeted publication of 2020
Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act Continued emphasis on safety Increasing prominence of performance-based decision-making
Caltrans Transportation Analysis Guide (TAG) On-going effort continuing through 2016 Incorporating HSM methods as part of overall update to transportation
analysis Also working to incorporate useful surrogates for safety where broader
research is lacking (e.g., pedestrian and bicycle safety)