making the right decisions in a complex world
DESCRIPTION
Dr Graham Willis, Head of Research and Development, presented to the Canadian Health Workforce Conference on 21 October.TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Making the right decisions in a complex world
Canadian Health Workforce Conference
Dr. Graham WillisHead of R&D, Centre for Workforce Intelligence
![Page 2: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Many years ago…
![Page 3: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
How many trained hospital doctors will we have by 2040?
increase60% T
WO
BIL
LIO
N2bn£
TW
O B
ILL
ION
Cost
![Page 4: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
How many do we need?
Do we trust this?
Trai
ned
hosp
ital d
octo
rs
(tho
usan
ds)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Supply
Demand
?
![Page 5: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Policy
What if the future is not what we expect?
Failure
Megatrends
ProblemSystem
Events
![Page 6: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Consider many futures…
TodayExpected
future
Use plausible, challenging and consistent futures to test policies
![Page 7: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Robust workforce planning
Understand the system
Explore the future
Simulate the possibilities
Make robust decisions
Focal question
Transparent and participatory
![Page 8: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Horizon scanning
Context
Issues
Factors
Events
ProbabilityImpactWorkforceStakeholder
Ideas bank System mapping
![Page 9: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Scenario generationStakeholder workshops
Influencing factors
Keyfactors
Consistency check
Narrative scenarios
Quantified scenarios
![Page 10: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Scenario generation workshopKey factors
Low
I
mpa
ct H
igh
Low Uncertainty High
Predetermined Key factors
Secondary
![Page 11: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Scenario generation workshop
Population GDP growth Energy usage Carbonemissions
High
LowCA
B
Consistency analysis
![Page 12: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Scenario generation workshop
Vary across different futures
Formal elicitation protocol
Monte Carlo simulation Prob
abili
ty
Value
Quantify critical parameters
![Page 13: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Modeling and simulation
Demand side
OutputsSupply
side
![Page 14: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Polic
y ou
tcom
es
Policy analysis
Today
Policy options: ABCD
![Page 15: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Example PharmacyN
umbe
r of p
harm
acis
ts (f
ull-ti
me
equi
vale
nt)
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Year
Scenario 1
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
![Page 16: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Example Future demand for skillsSk
ill h
ours
/Yea
r (B
illio
ns)
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036
Time (Year)
Probability: 80% 100%Central estimate:
![Page 17: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Key points
What if the future is not what we expect?
Consider many futures Transparent and participatory approach
![Page 18: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Stress testing
![Page 19: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Contact details
Dr Graham WillisHead of Research and DevelopmentCentre for Workforce Intelligence, England
@
+44(0)7812 340 405
www.cfwi.org.uk | www.horizonscanning.org.uk
![Page 20: Making the right decisions in a complex world](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070318/55782fb1d8b42a9b438b511c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Making the right decisions in a complex world
Canadian Health Workforce Conference
Dr. Graham WillisHead of R&D, Centre for Workforce Intelligence