Published by The Royal Bank of Canada

Making Up Our Minds

We make personal choices all the time, andour lives are shaped by the consequences ofthem. By thinking them out systematically,we can cut down on the chances of gettingthem wrong...

[] One of the silliest terms in the language is "a self-made man," which singles out someone who hasbecome conspicuously successful in spite of socialor educational disadvantages. Come on, now: isn’tevery man and woman in a country like Canadapretty much self-made? No one is completely so,because no one is completely unaffected by circum-stances beyond his or her volition. But within thelimits of those circumstances, we have become thepersons we are today quite largely as the result ofdecisions we have taken of our own free will.

Some great thinkers have held the view thatevery little action we take goes into determining ourfutures. Thomas Carlyle was one of these; he wrote:"What I do now, I do once and for all." He mighthave added that what people do not do now, theymight never have a chance to do later. Decisions arecommonly associated with activity, but a failure orrefusal to act can be a highly significant decisionin its own right.

We are all to some extent the products of a suc-cession of decisions that seemed so minor at thetime that we hardly noticed making them. Some ofus have literally been shaped by decisions to havean extra helping at dinner or a between-meals snack.On the other hand, there are decisions whosemomentous consequences are obvious. We write ourown life stories when we choose, within our circum-stances, where to live, what work to do, and whom(if anyone) to marry. Choices like these go into defin-ing our uniqueness among human beings.

Yet many of us approach the big decisions weface without any great forethought. We make up

our minds in the manner of Mark Twain’s Huckle-berry Finn: "I studied for a minute, sort of holdingmy breath, and then I says to myself, ’All right,then, I’ll go to hell.’" A minute’s study is not likelyto bring the best results, but our reluctance toundertake a lengthy analysis of the options is onlyhuman. "Thinking is the hardest work there is,which is the probable reason so few engage in it,"Henry Ford observed.

"I’ve given it a lot of thought," people will saywhen they are about to come to a major decision.And so they may have; they may have spent sleep-less nights chasing the subject around in theirminds. But there is a difference between "thinkingabout" something and "thinking it out" systemat-ically. The latter might be all very well in business,but it strikes us as rather too cold-blooded whereour personal affairs are concerned.

The systematic approach goes against the grainof the romantic spirit acquired in our upbringingthrough songs and stories of love and adventure.In our sentimental hearts, we adore impulsiveness:"He swept her into his strong arms." In mattersof romance as in other things, we are inclined to acton the premise that we might as well take a chance,because we never know what will happen tomorrow.This attitude reflects a certain fatalism left overfrom ages of belief that mortals are not in controlof their own destiny: that what happened to themwas in the hands of the gods.

We don’t hear much about the gods these days,but that residual streak of fatalism within us stillwhispers that our destiny may be decided by a

superhuman agency. We have come to call this luck,and its existence is difficult to deny. But if life isa game of chance, it is not a game of pure chance,like a lottery. It is more like a horse race, in whichthe unexpected can always happen, but in whichthere are form charts to be studied and odds to becalculated in search of the most probable results.

Is it a natural ability,or a skill to be learned?

It is unwise to give luck the smallest place amongthe factors that go into a decision. If events takea fortunate turn, that is a bonus; it should not bedepended upon. In any case, what looks like goodluck from the outside is often nothing more thanthe result of good planning. "Hope for nothing fromluck," Edward Bulwer-Lytton wrote, "and the prob-ability is that you will be so prepared, forewarned,and forearmed that all shallow observers will callyou lucky."

Curiously enough, the same people who will tellyou that they trust to luck will insist in another con-text that they are in control of their own futures.Our political system is built around the concept thatindividuals must be free to make their own choicesand take their own chances; that governments mustnot dictate the course of their lives. A democraticgovernment operates on the principle that citizensare capable of making up their own minds in theirprivate affairs.

But do we really know how to make up ourminds? -- "know" in the sense that we know howto fry an egg or ride a bicycle or write a letter? Veryfew of us have been taught how to go about mak-ing decisions in school. The system that is basedon free choice leaves us only too free to fend for our-selves in this vital aspect of living. The only expla-nation for why we are not taught how to make deci-sions is that it is assumed there is nothing to teach.

Decision-making is seen as something we donaturally, like talking. We are expected to developit the way we develop our speech -- by imitation,practice, and by getting things wrong before we getthem right. That young people can learn a set ofskills to help them get things right in the first placedoes not seem to have entered our collective think-ing. If some are better at it than others, well, that’sbecause they have a natural aptitude which hasbeen honed by experience.

It is out of the notion that decision-making is aninstinctive knack that we derive that perennial folkfigure, the Man of Decision. He appears underdifferent names with different faces whenever anelection is called. His chief qualification for officeis not his skill in analyzing the elements of decisions,but a willingness to make them boldly. He is sup-posed to be endowed with a form of intuition knownas "gut feeling" which enables him to see whatshould be done and how.

The Man of Decision is the political incarnationof another familiar folk figure, the Man of Action.We meet this specimen regularly in movies, televi-sion series, and paperback books. He is usually ina desperately dangerous situation, but, with asweep of his steely eyes, he sizes it up in all its par-ticulars. He then takes instant action to foil his ene-mies. His most amazing characteristic is that hegets it right every time, at the first crack of the bat.

It’s not dithering to confirmthat you’re on the right road

We ordinary mortals know that life does not worklike that, yet we are inclined to adopt the Man ofDecision and the Man of Action as role models. Theresults of our attempts to emulate them are usuallylike another sequence from the movies which hasbeen played out with variations many times. It runsthis way: A man and a women are driving down acountry road and come to an unmarked T- junction.She looks at the road map and says they should turnleft; with the comment that he knows what he’sdoing, he turns right. They drive and drive; the roadgets narrower and rougher until the car finally hits

a protruding rock and breaks an axle. He sets outto find help across a farmer’s field, and is chasedby a ferocious bull.

Like the Man of Decision, our comic hero acts onthe basis of gut feeling. Like the Man of Action, heplunges forward without a moment’s hesitation...or a moment’s thought. The question is why he doesnot turn back when it becomes evident he is mis-taken. The answer is that, like most of us, headmires the spirit of determination. Both of hismythical idols are "men of iron will" who "stick totheir guns".

We have been brought up in our culture todespise irresolution. We have no time for procrasti-nators or ditherers -- nor should we have if theyavoid difficult decisions or are chronically unableto make up their minds. But irresolution should notbe confused with due deliberation. It is not dither-ing or procrastinating to take the time to examinethe map to make sure you are on the right road, orto change your mind when it is clear that the choiceyou have made is not leading to where you want togo.

The American experience in Viet Nam is a casein point. Puffed up with "the power of positivethinking," the leaders of the United States talkedthemselves into believing that they and their SouthVietnamese allies were winning the war. They dis-missed the mounting evidence to the contrary asdefeatism. Though they spoke of boldness, theycould not bring themselves to make the truly bolddecision of withdrawing their forces until eventsrelieved them of any choice.

The lesson in this historic chain of events for peo-ple who wish to make better decisions of any kindis that feelings are never absent from the process.For all the wondrous technology at their command,the American leaders made one wrong decision afteranother under the spell of wishfulness and pride.This proved a point made by Carl Jung, the pioneerpsychiatrist who probed the deepest workings of thehuman psyche: "We must not pretend to under-stand the world only by intellect; we apprehend itjust as much by feeling. Therefore the judgment ofthe intellect is, at best, only half the truth, and

must, if it be honest, come to an understanding ofits own inadequacy."

In a curious way, any attempt to remove the emo-tional element from one’s deliberations is a denialof reality. Sound judgments are made with the fullawareness that feelings such as pride, prejudice andvanity are always subconsciously at play. The trickis not to suppress them, but to attempt to bringthem into balance with practicality. An emotionalfactor may indeed be decisive in coming to the rightdecision. Practicality might dictate that a womanwho has been looking after her aged mother foryears should put her in a nursing home; but whatif it turns her mother against her, or if she cannotlive with the guilt she would suffer from doing so?

The beginning of wisdom is toconsult all those concerned

To avoid the heart dominating the head or vice-versa, the beginning of wisdom is to seek out otheropinions. It must be remembered in solicitingadvice, however, that it is natural for people tocrave affirmation of their own feelings, opinions andattitudes. To ask others to prop up your ego or tofunction as a ventriloquist’s dummy for yourprejudices is to waste their time as well as your own.

Where personal relations are concerned, consul-tation is imperative. People who are seriously dis-satisfied with a decision taken over their heads canbe expected to attempt to reverse or undermine it.Also, the party taking the unilateral action is prob-ably depriving him- or herself of valuable informa-tion by not checking on the details with all con-cerned.

It is almost a credo of modern administrationthat information is the lifeblood of decisions. Wheremost people go wrong in making private decisionsis to attempt to hold too much information in theirheads. There is always a danger of forgetting oroverlooking essential details. When too manydetails are being mentally juggled, some are apt tobe dropped.

Unless you are a genius, your mental processesare bound to be aided by writing things down, orentering them into a computer. If a question isimportant enough to take up your time in thoughtand discussion, it is important enough to be com-mitted to written lists. The act of setting out yourthoughts and feelings in writing will help you bringemotional and practical considerations into balance.Writing down all the facts and figures helps toensure that no details are forgotten. The process isalso likely to turn up ideas which might not haveoccurred to you before.

Coming to conclusionson a scale of one to ten

Nothing is simpler than a set of "decision lists"covering possible courses of action. All it takes isa sheet of paper for each option, divided down themiddle into columns listing all the possible advan-tages and disadvantages of each.

Often the basic exercise of enumerating the prosand cons of each choice is sufficient to yield a deci-sion. If the pros and cons of each come out nearlyeven, however, then all the considerations shouldbe more thoroughly assessed. This is done byattributing a numerical weight to each on a scaleof one to ten. Due weight must be given to your feel-ings and personal values. In choosing a home, forinstance, how important is it that it be situated ina neighbourhood that reflects your tastes and sta-tus? How much more or less important on a scaleof one to ten than the fact that the price and taxesare higher than in another part of town?

By applying these weights and adding up thescores, you should be able to arrive at a solutionwhich suits your personal preferences, circum-stances and values. This works well when makingrelatively straightforward choices, but for morecomplex questions, a more elaborate system maybe required. One such system is outlined in a bookcalled Make Up Your Mind! (AMACOM, New York,1978) by the well-known American policy consul-tant, John D. Arnold. Arnold has adapted thedecision-making techniques used in business and

government to personal questions, including suchsensitive ones as marriage, child-bearing anddivorce.

His system essentially entails making lists ofrequirements and desires, giving the.m numericalweights, and matching them with lists of alterna-tives which are also weighted. It is too complex toexplain here; anyone seriously interested in pursu-ing systematic decision-making should acquire thebook. But he does make one simple point which wewould all be well-advised to keep in mind -- thatsearching thought should always be given to thebroad purpose of the decision. It might not be whatyou assumed it was: for instance, you might findthat your real purpose is to decide on your bestmeans of transportation, not just to decide on whichmodel of new car to buy.

Arnold recommends that, once a decision ismade, you should check it against a list of all thethings that could possibly go wrong when it is putinto practice. This will enable you to head offproblems by taking precautionary steps. No deci-sion that is not made under extreme pressure shouldbe put in effect immediately. You should put it asideand look at it after an interval, when fresh ideasmight have occurred to you.

Of course, no matter how systematic you havebeen, there is no guarantee that a decision will turnout successfully. The unforeseen can always arise.Life remains a game of chance, but it is not a gameof blind luck; skill and preparation can make a greatdifference to the outcome. By thinking out deci-sions, you can at least increase the odds of headingin the right direction when taking the steps that setthe course of your life.