malaysia budget 2013

20
SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Market update 1 October 2012 PP16832/01/2013 (031128) Malaysia Budget 2013 One For The People Market-neutral. As anticipated, Budget 2013 focused on sustaining domestic demand as it continues to deliver a number of “goodies” to the people to help them weather the rising cost of living, with focus, too, on affordable housing. There is no change to our forecasts for KLCI core earnings growth of 11.9% in 2012 and 9.8% in 2013. Our stock and sector calls are also retained. We expect external volatility to persist and reiterate our defensive call on the broader market, with selective Overweights on oil & gas, construction, telco, gaming and power. No sin tax hikes, but a surprise 5-ppt RPGT hike. As expected, there were no hikes in taxes for the tobacco, brewery and gaming sectors. This should be a fillip for the depressed share price of Genting Malaysia, one of our top gaming BUYs. We remain Underweight on the tobacco, Neutral on the brewery and Overweight on the gaming sectors. The negative surprise was however a 5-ppt hike in RPGT for property holdings of less than five years, despite slowing demand. While generally negative for the property sector, we believe this is largely priced in, and maintain our Neutral call on the developers. Oil & gas: Incentivising downstream development. Our reading of the Budget speech is that service providers in the refining, storage and trading development chain at PETRONAS‟ RAPID, oil and gas storage terminal in Johor, regasification plant in Melaka, and oil and gas terminal in Sipitang, Sabah, would all qualify for the new 10-year 100% Investment Tax Allowance. If we are right on this, then Dialog, Petronas Gas, Gas Malaysia and Petronas Chemicals will be key beneficiaries, as the incentive will accelerate their return on the heavy capex to be incurred to support Malaysia‟s downstream oil & gas developments. Joyous moment for the masses; but sugar subsidy cut. Retail players under our coverage like AEON and Padini are the prime beneficiaries of the bonuses for civil servants, reduced individual income tax and tax reliefs, absence of GST, and other “goodies” resulting in higher disposable income. We are Neutral on the consumer sector, with selective BUYs on Padini and QL Resources. Meanwhile, a lower sugar subsidy of 20sen/kg should be passed on; we expect only a temporary shave in volume sales of MSM and Tradewinds. Construction: No new names. The government‟s gross development allocation for 2013 will be shaved 4.2% YoY to MYR47.8b. Construction of major infrastructure and real estate projects such as the Gemas-Johor Baru double track rail, West Coast Expressway, Tun Razak Exchange and Sg Buloh Malaysia Rubber Land are targeted to start in 2013. There was no mention of the KVMRT 2 and 3 lines; we take that to mean that the implementation is still some time away. We expect the two new lines to be given the government‟s go-ahead only from mid-2013, with job tendering to start, the earliest, by end-2013. Neutral(unchanged) Current KLCI: 1,637 (28 Sep 2012) YE KLCI target: 1,620 (unchanged) Wong Chew Hann [email protected] (03) 2297 8686 Table of Content Page Budget 2013: One For The People 1 Capital Market: Several Steps Forward 3 Consumer/Gaming: Something to Cheer About 5 Construction/Building Materials: No New Name 7 Oil & Gas/Petrochemicals: Incentivising Downstream Developments 9 Plantation: Nothing Unsual 10 Property & REIT: Another Blow 11 Telecommunications: In Business We Trust 13 Other Highlights of Budget 2013 15 Top Picks Stock Name Ticker Shr Price @ 28 Sep TP Public Bank PBK MK 14.38 16.00 Hong Leong Bank HLBK MK 13.40 15.30 Telekom T MK 6.19 6.61 Genting Malaysia GENM MK 3.50 4.05 SapuraKencana SAKP MK 2.32 2.68 Bumi Armada BAB MK 3.69 4.88 KLCC Prop KLCC MK 5.82 6.38 Top Glove TOPG MK 4.90 6.00 Source: Maybank KE

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Page 1: Malaysia Budget 2013

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

17 October 2011

PP16832/01/2012 (029059)

Market update 1 October 2012

PP16832/01/2013 (031128)

Page 1 of 2

Malaysia

Budget 2013 One For The People

Market-neutral. As anticipated, Budget 2013 focused on sustaining

domestic demand as it continues to deliver a number of “goodies” to the

people to help them weather the rising cost of living, with focus, too, on

affordable housing. There is no change to our forecasts for KLCI core

earnings growth of 11.9% in 2012 and 9.8% in 2013. Our stock and

sector calls are also retained. We expect external volatility to persist

and reiterate our defensive call on the broader market, with selective

Overweights on oil & gas, construction, telco, gaming and power.

No sin tax hikes, but a surprise 5-ppt RPGT hike. As expected, there

were no hikes in taxes for the tobacco, brewery and gaming sectors.

This should be a fillip for the depressed share price of Genting

Malaysia, one of our top gaming BUYs. We remain Underweight on the

tobacco, Neutral on the brewery and Overweight on the gaming

sectors. The negative surprise was however a 5-ppt hike in RPGT for

property holdings of less than five years, despite slowing demand.

While generally negative for the property sector, we believe this is

largely priced in, and maintain our Neutral call on the developers.

Oil & gas: Incentivising downstream development. Our reading of

the Budget speech is that service providers in the refining, storage and

trading development chain at PETRONAS‟ RAPID, oil and gas storage

terminal in Johor, regasification plant in Melaka, and oil and gas

terminal in Sipitang, Sabah, would all qualify for the new 10-year 100%

Investment Tax Allowance. If we are right on this, then Dialog, Petronas

Gas, Gas Malaysia and Petronas Chemicals will be key beneficiaries,

as the incentive will accelerate their return on the heavy capex to be

incurred to support Malaysia‟s downstream oil & gas developments.

Joyous moment for the masses; but sugar subsidy cut. Retail

players under our coverage like AEON and Padini are the prime

beneficiaries of the bonuses for civil servants, reduced individual

income tax and tax reliefs, absence of GST, and other “goodies”

resulting in higher disposable income. We are Neutral on the consumer

sector, with selective BUYs on Padini and QL Resources. Meanwhile, a

lower sugar subsidy of 20sen/kg should be passed on; we expect only a

temporary shave in volume sales of MSM and Tradewinds.

Construction: No new names. The government‟s gross development

allocation for 2013 will be shaved 4.2% YoY to MYR47.8b.

Construction of major infrastructure and real estate projects such as the

Gemas-Johor Baru double track rail, West Coast Expressway, Tun

Razak Exchange and Sg Buloh Malaysia Rubber Land are targeted to

start in 2013. There was no mention of the KVMRT 2 and 3 lines; we

take that to mean that the implementation is still some time away. We

expect the two new lines to be given the government‟s go-ahead only

from mid-2013, with job tendering to start, the earliest, by end-2013.

Neutral(unchanged)

Current KLCI: 1,637 (28 Sep 2012) YE KLCI target: 1,620 (unchanged)

Wong Chew Hann [email protected] (03) 2297 8686

Table of Content

Page

Budget 2013: One For The People 1

Capital Market: Several Steps Forward 3

Consumer/Gaming: Something to Cheer About 5

Construction/Building Materials: No New Name 7

Oil & Gas/Petrochemicals: Incentivising

Downstream Developments

9

Plantation: Nothing Unsual 10

Property & REIT: Another Blow 11

Telecommunications: In Business We Trust 13

Other Highlights of Budget 2013 15

Top Picks

Stock Name Ticker Shr Price @ 28 Sep

TP

Public Bank PBK MK 14.38 16.00

Hong Leong Bank HLBK MK 13.40 15.30

Telekom T MK 6.19 6.61

Genting Malaysia GENM MK 3.50 4.05

SapuraKencana SAKP MK 2.32 2.68

Bumi Armada BAB MK 3.69 4.88

KLCC Prop KLCC MK 5.82 6.38

Top Glove TOPG MK 4.90 6.00

Source: Maybank KE

Page 2: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 2 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Malaysia market earnings growth & valuation as at 28 Sep 2012

2011A 2012E 2013E

KLCI 30 @ 1,637 PE (x) 16.7 15.0 13.5

Earnings Growth (%) – current * 9.9% 11.9% 9.8%

Maybank IB’s Research Universe PE (x) 17.8 15.9 14.2

Earnings Growth (%) – current 13.3% 11.9% 12.1%

* Ex-Tenaga: +12.4% (2011), +7.5% (2012), +9.4% (2013); Source: Maybank KE

KLCI vs. 12M forward PER

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

221-Yr Forward PER Mean +1 SD -1 SD

(x)

Source: Maybank KE, Bloomberg

KLCI vs. Trailing P/B

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

(x)KLCI P/B Mean

+1 SD -1 SD

Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE

KLCI’s Dividend Yield

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

(%)

Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE

Page 3: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 3 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Several Steps Forward

Budget measures/incentives:

Securities Commission (SC) to provide framework for issuance

of AgroSukuk, while expenses for the issuance of such will be

given double deductions for four years (2012-2015).

Additional expenses incurred in the issuance of retail bonds

and retail sukuk to be given double deductions for four years

(2012-2015). Individual investors to be given stamp duty

exemptions on instruments relating to the transaction of such

instruments.

DanaInfra Nasional to issue retail bonds worth MYR300m by

end-2012 to finance the construction the MRT.

MYR400m allocation to Danajamin Nasional for the next two

years.

Income tax exemption for 10 years for Tun Razak Exchange

(TRX) status companies; stamp duty exemption, industrial

building allowance and accelerated capital allowance for TRX

Marquee-status companies as well as tax exemptions for property

developers.

Business Trusts to be given the same tax treatment as a

company. The transfer of any business, asset and real property to

a business trust will be given stamp duty and RPGT examptions.

Impact/benefits:

A step forward in Malaysia’s debt capital market development:

(i) AgroSukuk will offer agriculture-based companies the alternative of

tapping on an efficient capital market, and further accelerate the

development of the upstream agri-based industries. Companies

involved in palm oil and rubber cultivation will gain. Potential

beneficiaries are all palm oil plantation groups and Top Glove

(TOPG MK; BUY; TP: MYR6.00), which is buying land for rubber

cultivation to reduce the volatility of its latex cost and ensure a

minimum supply.

(ii) The incentives for issuers and retain investors in encouraging retail

participation of bonds/sukuk will increase the growth and depth of

the bond/sukuk market.

(iii) Separately, the allocation to Danajamin Nasional increases its

ability to provide guarantee facilities to eligible companies seeking

to obtain funds from the bond market at reasonable costs.

Capital Market

Not Rated (unchanged)

Desmond Ch’ng [email protected] (603) 2297 8680

Wong Chew Hann [email protected] (603) 2297 8686

Page 4: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 4 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Seeks to accelerate Malaysia’s development as an international

financial hub. TRX, which has an estimated GDV of MYR26b, is

expected to attract 250 international financial services companies and

offer 40,000 knowledge and skilled job opportunities. However, the

incoming supply of office space from the TRX is a concern, as it will

impact rental yields in the KL central business district. Among REITs in

the office segment that could be impacted are AmanahRaya REIT

(AARET MK; HOLD; TP: MYR0.91) and Quill Capita (QUIL MK; HOLD;

TP: MYR1.10).

The new Business Trust incentive may compel telcos like

Digi.Com (DIGI MK; HOLD; TP: MYR4.73) to move into this business

structure, hence, raising its yield potential to shareholders (please see

the telco section of this writeup for details).

Page 5: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 5 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Something To Cheer About

Budget measures/incentives:

No excise hikes for tobacco and brewery; gaming taxes

unchanged.

“Goodies” for civil servants – a one-and-a-half-month bonus, half

a month paid during the just-concluded Aidilfiltri, and a half-month

each at end-Dec 2012 and Jan 2013.

“Goodies” for the people – Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M

2.0) for low-income (less than MYR3,000/month) households and

low-income (less than MYR2,000/month) unmarried individuals.

Allowances for farmers and fishermen.

A MYR0.20/kg reduction in the sugar subsidy to MYR0.34/kg, to

curb unhealthy excess sugar consumption.

A 19,000ha (+4.9%) increase in paddy plantations with the

development and expansion of four new paddy granaries in Kota

Belud, Batang Lupar, Rompin and Pekan.

Tax exemptions for tour operators to boost tourism.

Impact/benefits:

Sugar subsidy reduction: MSM and Tradewinds to be negatively

impacted, but only slightly. This reduction in subsidy is consistent

with the government‟s aim of curbing unhealthy excess sugar

consumption by Malaysians – the average Malaysian consumes 48kg

of sugar p.a., well above the world average of 31 kg. We think the sugar

companies will be allowed to raise selling prices by MYR0.20/kg to

recoup the additional cost, which is in line with previous

implementations of subsidy cuts. In the past, we observe that subsidy

reductions resulted in sugar volumes decreases among industrial

consumers whereas demand from retail consumers continued to grow.

On a net basis, we expect sugar volume sales to contract by 1-2ppts,

impacting MSM (MSM MK; HOLD; TP: MYR4.70) and Tradewinds

Malaysia (TWI MK; Not Rated). The impact on FGVH, which holds a

51%-equity stake in MSM, is relatively muted given that MSM‟s

contribution to FGVH‟s PATAMI is only 13% for FY12 and 12% for

FY13, based on our forecasts. F&B manufacturers with strong brand

portfolio such as Nestle (NESZ MK; SELL; TP: MYR54.20) and F&N

Holdings (FNH MK; HOLD; TP: MYR20.79) will be able to pass on the

higher costs gradually.

More rice supply means more profits, in our opinion. The initiatives

to increase rice plantation areas, boost water supply infrastructure and

a MYR165m allocation for research into enhancing paddy yields will

likely boost both yields and quality of rice delivered. This will enable

Padiberas (PNL MK; HOLD; TP: MYR3.40) to enjoy higher utilisation,

lower costs and command higher selling prices thanks to the better

product quality.

Consumer / Gaming

Neutral / OW (unchanged)

Kang Chun Ee [email protected] (603) 2297 8675

Chai Li Shin [email protected] (603) 2297 8684 Chong Ooi Ming [email protected] (603) 2297 8676 Ivan Yap [email protected] (603) 2297 8612 Samuel Yin Shao Yang [email protected] (603) 2297 8916

Kang Chun Ee [email protected] (603) 2297 8675

Chai Li Shin [email protected] (603) 2297 8684

Page 6: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 6 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Steady fish supply for QL Resources. A living allowance of

MYR200/month, fish catch incentive of MYR0.10-MYR0.20/kg, as well

as insurance scheme for fishermen with a maximum coverage of

MYR100,000 will help reduce the non-weather factors and ensure

stable fish landings. This is on top of the MYR300m earmarked for the

building and refurbishment of fishermen‟s houses in Budget 2012. Our

call on QL Resources (QLG MK; TP: MYR3.75) remains a BUY.

Joyous moment for the masses. Retail players under our coverage

like AEON Co (AEON MK; HOLD; TP: MYR9.30) and Padini (PAD MK;

BUY; TP: MYR2.61) would be the prime beneficiaries from:

(i) The bonus for civil servants;

(ii) Reduced individual income tax (for chargeable income below

MYR50k p.a.) and an absence of GST;

(iii) The government‟s intention to boost tourism; and

(iv) Other government “goodies”

All these will result in higher disposable income. In particular, the bonus

for civil servants that will be paid in end-Dec 2012 and Jan 2013 will

spur spending during the school holidays and year-end festivals.

Maintain Neutral on the consumer sector. Due to the mixed results,

we retain our Neutral call on the sector. We think that these measures

will help to support consumer demand amid a weak external economic

environment. Higher production costs for consumer F&B producers

from the sugar subsidy cut are likely to be passed on to the end

consumers.

Maintain Overweight on the gaming sector. The status quo outcome

for both casino and NFO-related taxes is a relief, and this continues to

support our Overweight call on the sector for its defensive attributes.

We remain BUYers of Genting Malaysia and Berjaya Sports Toto.

Consumer sector: Comparative valuations

Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)

Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F

AEON Co 11.00 9.30 Hold 52.9 57.5 20.8 19.1 12.3 8.7 1.5 2.7

BAT (M) 60.40 55.00 Sell 252.0 276.2 24.0 21.9 (1.4) 9.6 4.1 33.7

Padiberas 3.26 3.40 Hold 35.2 35.9 9.3 9.1 (6.6) 2.0 8.1 1.3

Carlsberg 11.50 13.50 Buy 50.4 60.0 22.8 19.2 15.7 19.0 5.1 5.3

F&N Hldgs 18.20 20.79 Hold 82.1 56.8 22.2 32.0 (5.4) (30.8) 2.5 4.1

Guinness 15.26 14.50 Hold 64.4 70.2 23.7 21.7 16.4 9.1 6.4 6.1

JTI 6.65 6.70 Hold 47.0 47.9 14.1 13.9 (8.2) 1.9 3.4 4.7

KFC 3.89 4.00 Hold 18.2 16.7 21.4 23.3 (3.9) (8.2) 1.3 2.6

Padini 2.10 2.61 Buy 13.1 16.0 16.1 13.1 25.5 22.6 2.9 3.7

Nestle 61.50 54.20 Sell 194.6 216.4 31.6 28.4 16.6 11.2 3.3 21.7

QL Res 3.15 3.75 Buy 15.6 17.3 20.2 18.2 6.6 10.9 1.5 3.0

MSM 4.90 4.70 Hold 37.7 37.0 13.0 13.2 4.7 (1.9) 3.7 2.1

KPJ 6.10 5.84 Sell 24.1 24.4 25.3 25.0 6.6 1.2 1.9 3.6

Source: Maybank KE

Gaming sector: Comparative valuations

Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)

Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F

BST 4.33 5.00 Buy 29.0 30.9 14.9 14.0 6.9 6.4 5.5 9.5

MPHB 3.50 3.82 Hold 23.4 24.5 15.0 14.3 (16.1) 4.7 2.1 1.5

GENT 8.71 10.00 Hold 68.6 72.4 12.7 12.0 2.5 5.5 0.7 1.6

GENM 3.50 4.05 Buy 27.5 29.7 12.7 11.8 11.3 8.0 2.0 1.5

Source: Maybank KE

Page 7: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 7 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

No New Names

Budget measures/incentives:

Gross development spending of MYR47.8b (-4.2% YoY). In

terms of sectoral allocation, economic services will receive the

highest share at 63% or MYR30b (MYR9.4b of which is for the

transport subsector), followed by social services (MYR11.1b),

security (MYR4.6b) and general administration (MYR2b).

Construction sector real GDP is anticipated to grow 11.2% in 2013

(2012: +15.5%; 2011: +4.6%).

Gross development expenditure

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

E

(MYR'm)

Source: Economic Reports (Treasury), Maybank KE

Projects to start in 2013

Type Project

Property Tun Razak Exchange (TRX)

Sg Buloh Malaysia Rubber Land

Rail Gemas-Johor Baru double track

Roads Donggongan-Simpang Jalan Papar Spur (Pkg 1), Sabah

Pekan-Nenasi-Endau, Pahang

Batu Maung-Pulau Pinang Second Bridge (Bayan Lepas Exp)

West Coast Expressway – Taiping to Banting

Source: 2012/13 Economic Report

MYR6b Private Finance Initiatives 2. This continues from 2012‟s

MYR6b Special Stimulus Package (PFI 1) undertaken to address

the impact of an increasingly challenging external outlook. Among

the projects identified under PFI 2 are the refurbishment and

maintenance of schools and health clinics, housing projects, water

tank projects, flood mitigation plans and provision of sports

facilities.

MYR4.5b for rural development projects. This includes MYR1.2b

to construct 441km of rural and village link roads, and MYR1.6b for

utility infrastructure (water and electricity) projects.

Construction / Building materials OW / UW (unchanged)

Wong Chew Hann, CA [email protected] (603) 2297 8686

Lee Yen Ling [email protected] (603) 2297 8691

Page 8: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 8 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Impact/benefits:

No new names. Major infrastructure and property projects that are to

start in 2013, namely, the Gemas-Johor Baru double track rail, West

Coast Expressway, Tun Razak Exchange and Sg Buloh Malaysia

Rubber Land, are not new projects. There was no mention of the

KVMRT 2 and 3 lines, and we take that to mean that the technical and

feasibility studies are still underway, and that implementation is still

some time away. This is also not new to us since we only expected the

two new lines to be given the government‟s go-ahead from mid-2013

with job tendering to start, the earliest, in end-2013.

We continue to Overweight the construction sector. Our

Underweight call on the building materials sub-sector is premised on

our less than optimistic outlook for the steel players amid falling iron ore

prices, which may prompt inventory writedowns and dumping activities

from China into the Malaysian market.

Construction sector: Comparative valuations

Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)

Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F

Eversendai 1.48 2.17 Buy 15.4 18.1 9.6 8.2 2.0 17.5 2.4 0.8

Gamuda 3.44 4.10 Buy 23.0 27.3 15.0 12.6 27.8 19.0 2.7 1.7

HSL 1.59 2.25 Buy 15.8 18.0 10.1 8.8 17.9 13.9 1.7 1.8

IJM Corp 4.72 5.60 Hold 30.8 33.2 15.3 14.2 19.9 8.0 1.9 1.2

Litrak 4.00 4.30 Hold 17.3 23.7 23.2 16.9 (9.1) 37.2 3.2 4.9

WCT 2.70 3.15 Buy 19.6 20.1 13.8 13.4 10.4 2.6 2.8 1.4

Source: Maybank KE

Building Material sector: Comparative valuations

Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)

Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F

Ann Joo 1.33 1.30 Sell 16.1 9.7 8.3 13.7 (5.3) (39.8) 3.2 0.6

Kinsteel 0.36 0.40 Hold (11.3) 4.8 n.a. 7.5 289.7 (142.5) 2.8 0.5

Lafarge 8.90 8.50 Hold 37.4 42.5 23.8 20.9 7.5 13.6 4.0 2.4

Source: Maybank KE

Page 9: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 9 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Incentivising Downstream Developments

Budget measures/incentives:

An Investment Tax Allowance (ITA) of 100% for 10 years will be

provided to qualified companies that invest in refinery activities

on petroleum products.

A 100% income tax exemption for the first three years will be

given to LNG trading companies. Commodity trading approved

under the Global Incentive for Trading (GIFT) programme will be

extended to include other commodities such as agriculture, refined

raw materials, base minerals and chemicals.

Impact/benefits:

Service providers to benefit too? Our reading of the Budget speech

is that service providers in the development chain of refining, storage

and trading at: (i) PETRONAS‟ RAPID in Johor, (ii) oil and storage

terminal in Johor, (iii) regasification plant in Melaka, and (iv) oil and gas

terminal in Sipitang, Sabah, also qualify for the 10-year 100% ITA.

If we are right on this, then Dialog, Petronas Gas, Gas Malaysia and

Petronas Chemicals will be the key beneficiaries, as the incentive will

accelerate the return on the heavy capex they incur to support

Malaysia‟s oil & gas developments.

Dialog: We estimate Dialog‟s capex for its petroleum and LNG

storage facilities in Pengerang, Johor to be MYR6-8b. Dialog also

has a tank terminal operation in Tanjung Langsat, Johor.

Petronas Gas: It will start its MYR2b regasification operations in

Melaka by end-2012. Our back-of-envelope calculations suggest

tax savings and enhancement to PGas‟ bottomline by 4% or

MYR65m p.a. if it qualifies for the 100% 10-year ITA. This new ITA

incentive would also incentivise PGas to set up a second

regasification project in Pengerang to support the RAPID project.

Gas Malaysia: It has commenced negotiations with PETRONAS to

secure additional natural gas supply from the country‟s proposed

second regasification project in Pengerang. This additional gas

intake is crucial to support planned light industries in Pengerang.

For this, capex will be spent on the connectivity of gas pipelines.

Petronas Chemicals: It has commenced the construction of a

1.2m tonne p.a. urea plant in Sipitang whichis expected to be

completed in 2015. The project cost is estimated at USD1.5b.

Related Oil and Gas companies, Petronas Chemicals: Comparative valuations

Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)

Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F

Dialog 2.39 3.05 Buy 8.3 9.4 29.0 25.6 20.3 13.3 1.8 5.6

Petronas Gas 19.00 20.20 Hold 72.7 73.1 26.1 26.0 53.0 0.5 2.6 4.4

Gas Malaysia 2.63 2.76 Hold 17.8 11.5 14.8 22.9 NA (35.4) 4.4 3.6

PChem 6.40 7.05 Buy 45.8 48.8 14.0 13.1 27.2 6.6 4.2 2.6

Source: Maybank KE

Oil & Gas / Petrochemicals OW / OW (unchanged)

Wong Chew Hann, CA [email protected] (603) 2297 8688

Chong Ooi Ming [email protected] (603) 2297 8676

Page 10: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 10 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Nothing Unusual

Budget measures/incentives:

MYR432m is allocated under the Economic Transformation

Programme NKEA for an oil palm replanting programme.

MYR127m was allocated for the development of high-value

oleo derivatives to transform the downstream industry towards a

higher production of derivatives.

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR): Felda will implement and

complete new-generation housing projects amounting to 20,000

units over 5 years on 5,000 acres of land. The project will cost

MYR1.5b (or MYR300m p.a.). In addition, Felda will allocate

MYR60m to revive traditional village houses. Felda will also spend

MYR100m a year for education and skills training programme.

Impact/benefits:

Oil palm replanting scheme is an ongoing initiative. This is nothing

new. On the other hand, there were no details provided on the

MYR127m allocated for the development of high-value oleo derivatives.

Nonetheless, the sum is small and likely to benefit only existing players

in the downstream industry like IOI Corp, KL Kepong, Sime and FGVH.

CSR spending to be Felda’s prerogative and not FGVH, in our

opinion. Recall that under the land lease agreement between FGVH

and Felda, FGVH will pay Felda an annual fixed payment of

MYR248.5m plus 15% of yearly plantation operating profit, which works

out to be approximately MYR500m in total per year. This is in addition

to the yearly profits Felda receives in the form of dividend FGVH pays

to shareholders. Felda will likely channel these yearly receipts (ie lease

payments and dividends) from FGVH for its CSR obligation in housing,

education and skills training for the benefit of Felda settlers. We think

the additional spending will not come out of FGVH‟s pockets.

Plantation sector: Comparative valuations

Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)

Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F

Genting Plant 9.20 9.10 Hold 58.3 56.2 15.8 16.4 36.2 (3.6) 1.3 2.0

IOI Corp 4.98 5.24 Hold 29.5 29.9 16.9 16.7 8.7 1.4 3.1 2.4

KL Kepong 22.06 23.50 Hold 125.0 118.9 17.6 18.5 31.0 (4.9) 3.5 3.2

Sime Darby 9.80 11.00 Buy 65.6 69.1 14.9 14.2 79.5 5.3 3.5 2.2

Felda 4.83 5.20 Hold 40.1 28.8 12.0 16.8 NA (28.2) 2.9 2.9

SOP 6.55 8.00 Buy 56.0 51.6 11.7 12.7 58.7 (7.9) 0.6 2.0

TSH Resources 2.20 2.35 Hold 14.5 11.7 15.2 18.8 40.8 (19.3) 1.6 2.0

TH Plantations 2.38 2.45 Hold 24.5 19.2 9.7 12.4 33.9 (21.6) 4.1 1.8

Ta Ann 3.92 5.30 Buy 41.3 26.4 9.5 14.8 104.5 (36.1) 3.0 1.6

Source: Maybank KE

Plantations

Neutral (unchanged)

Ong Chee Ting, CA [email protected] (603) 2297 8768 Chai Li Shin [email protected] (603) 2297 8684

Page 11: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 11 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Another Blow

Budget measures/incentives:

Higher RPGT. The government has raised Real Property Gains

Tax (RPGT) by: (i) 5ppt to 15%, for properties held and disposed

within two years, and (ii) 5ppt to 10%, for properties disposed held

for between two and five years. The „zero‟ RPGT for disposals after

five years of holding is unchanged.

Extension of 50% stamp duty exemption. The 50% stamp duty

exemption for the first-time purchase of residential property will be

extended for another two years from 1 Jan 2013 to 31 Dec 2014.

The price cap for residential property purchases qualifying for this

50% exemption has been raised to MYR400,000 (from

MYR350,000) to reduce the financial burden of first-time

homebuyers and to address the issue of rising property prices.

Higher income qualifying limit for My First Home Scheme. To

enable more Malaysians to own their first residential property, the

government proposes to raise the income limit for individual

housing loans to MYR5,000/month (from MYR3,000) or joint-loans

(between husband and wife) of up to MYR10,000/month for

financing of houses costing up to MYR400,000.

Housing for the people. The government will allocate MYR1.9b to

build 123,000 affordable housing units (priced at MYR30,000-

MYR400,000/unit) in 2013. The initiative will be implemented by

PR1MA, Syarikat Perumahan Nasional Bhd (SPNB) and Jabatan

Perumahan Negara.

No change in 10% withholding tax for REITS. No change in the

current 10% withholding tax structure which will stay till 31 Dec

2016 for non-corporate institutional and individual investors.

Impact/benefits:

RPGT hike: A negative surprise. We had not expected any RPGT

hikes given the slowdown in the broad property market. Fortunately, the

quantum of +5% with a maximum tax of 15% is not onerous as

compared to the widely speculated up-to-30% tax, which had been the

structure prior to Apr 2007. This shows that the government is still

promoting homeownership while keeping tabs on speculation.

Pain is temporary. We expect the higher RPGT to lower speculative

activities over the near term but it is unlikely to deter real property

demand significantly over the longer-term, which is still dominated/

supported by owner occupiers and a young demographic. Moreover,

projects at strategic locations with decent investment value/capital

appreciation potential should continue to receive strong demand.

Affordable home is the key. Higher income limits for My First Home

Scheme will boost the demand for affordable homes further. Already,

developers are switching their focus to affordable homes to tackle the

strong demand especially for affordable landed properties. For

instance, Glomac‟s 191.8-acre new township project in Dengkil will

Property & REIT

Neutral (Maintained)

Wong Wei Sum, CFA [email protected] (603) 2297 8679

Page 12: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 12 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

focus on affordable homes priced from MYR350,000 onwards whilst

Mah Sing will introduce more affordable products (SoVo and lifestyle

suites priced from MYR208,000 onwards) in its upcoming Southville

project in Bangi. We also expect to see an increasing supply of

small/shoe-box units (450-750sq.ft.) in the future. Beneficiaries include

developers with more involvements in affordable housing – Glomac,

Hua Yang (Not Rated), LBS (Not Rated) and KSL (Not Rated).

Property: Maintain Neutral, but target prices lowered. We expect

investors‟ sentiment on property stocks to stay weak given demand

hold-backs: 1) by the upcoming 13th general election, and 2) amid a

weak global economic outlook and stricter mortgage lending by the

banks. We now apply higher discounts of 20-45% (+5%) (15-40%

previously) to RNAVs as we price in these risks. We prefer defensive

asset owners like KLCC Property and REITs over the developers.

REIT: Status quo. As we had anticipated, the current 10% withholding

tax (expiring end-2016) is unchanged. We remain comfortable about M-

REITs for their defensive qualities and solid fundamentals. Yields have

however compressed to 6.9% (average; 6.2% net), vs. 3.52% for 10-

year MGS. We maintain a Neutral stance on the M-REIT sector.

SunREIT offers a higher yield of 5.4% (4.9% net) vs. its retail peers‟

4.9% (4.4% net). Surprises could come from yield-accretive acquisitions

(medical centre/ colleges) in the near-term.

Review of RPGT under Budget 2013

Year Prior to 1 Apr 07 (citizen/foreign) (%)

1 Apr 07 - 31 Dec 09 (citizen/foreign) (%)

Effective 1 Jan 10 (citizen/foreign) (%)

Effective 1 Jan 2012 (citizen/foreign) (%)

Effective 1 Jan 2013 (citizen/foreign) (%)

1st 30/30 0/0 5/5 10/10 15/15

2nd 30/30 0/0 5/5 10/10 15/15

3rd 20/30 0/0 5/5 5/5 10/10

4th 15/30 0/0 5/5 5/5 10/10

5th 5/30 0/0 5/5 5/5 10/10

from 6th onward

0/5 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0

i) RPGT exemption on gains from the disposal of one unit of residential property once in a lifetime by an individual who is a citizen or a permanent resident of Malaysia

ii) RPGT exemption on gains from disposal of property between parents and children, husband and wife, grandparents and grandchildren

iii) RPGT is charged only on net gains after deducting all related costs such as purchase price, renovation costs and incidental costs e.g. legal

fees and stamp duty

iv) Exemption up to RM10,000 or 10% of the net gains, whichever is higher, is given to an individual.

Source: Budget 2013

Changes in our target price and ratings for the property developers

Before After

Company RM Rec. RM Rec. Remarks

Glomac 1.10 BUY 1.00 BUY Raise discount from 40% to 45% (+5%); small cap and low trading volume

as well as perceived political risk KLCCP 6.38 BUY 6.38 BUY No change; potential REIT-ing of its world class assets will unlock its deep

valuations. Mah Sing 2.38 HOLD 2.21 HOLD Raise discount from 30% to 35% (+5%); perceived political risk and

significant contributions from its Rawang and Bangi township developments are expected from 2013 onwards only

SP Setia 4.00 HOLD 3.77 HOLD Raise discount from 15% to 20% (+5%); perceived political risk and low

trading volume given low free float of 10%. We expect the placement of 322.6m new shares to dilute our TP by 3%

Sunway 2.62 BUY 2.45 HOLD Raise discount from 40% to 45% (+5%); perceived political risk and

slowdown in demand for high-end properties UEML 2.05 HOLD 1.86 HOLD Raise discount from 40% to 45% (+5%); perceived political risk and it may

miss its MYR3b sales target (vs. our sales forecasts of MYR2.48b) for FY12

due to potential delays in launching its MYR1b Aurora Tower and MK22 given the slowdown in demand for high-end/ high rise properties;

Source: Maybank KE

Page 13: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 13 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Property sector: Comparative valuations

Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)

Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F

Developers

Glomac 0.81 1.00 BUY 12.4 13.9 6.5 5.8 32.9 12.1 6.9 0.4

KLCC Prop 5.82 6.38 BUY 20.2 26.2 28.8 22.2 (19.8) 29.7 1.7 0.8

Mah Sing 2.11 2.21 HOLD 20.3 26.1 10.4 8.1 43.0 28.6 4.9 1.5

SP Setia 3.64 3.77 HOLD 16.7 19.9 21.8 18.3 43.8 19.2 3.3 1.8

Sunway Bhd 2.30 2.45 HOLD 25.2 27.3 9.1 8.4 4.6 8.3 2.4 0.9

UEM Land 1.68 1.86 HOLD 6.5 7.7 25.8 21.8 21.8 18.5 0.9 1.4

REITS

Axis REIT 3.00 2.80 HOLD 16.4 18.3 18.3 16.4 6.5 11.6 5.7 1.4

AmanahRaya 0.94 0.91 HOLD 7.4 7.5 12.7 12.5 2.8 1.4 6.8 0.9

CMMT 1.77 1.62 HOLD 7.3 7.6 24.2 23.3 247.6 4.1 4.4 1.2

Quill Capita 1.18 1.10 HOLD 8.8 9.1 13.4 13.0 4.8 3.4 6.6 0.9

Sunway REIT 1.45 1.53 HOLD 6.7 7.3 21.8 20.0 9.0 9.0 4.7 1.3

Pavilion REIT 1.40 1.40 HOLD 4.8 6.2 29.2 22.6 NA 29.2 4.2 1.5

Source: Maybank KE

Page 14: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 14 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

In Business We Trust

Budget measures/incentives:

Promoting business trusts. The Capital Markets and Services Act

2007 has been amended to allow companies to carry out their

operations through business trusts. To encourage its development,

exemption from stamp duty and real property gains tax will be

given. In addition, business trusts will be given the same tax

treatment as a company.

One-off rebate of MYR200 for youths to purchase 3G

smartphones. This is to encourage youths in the 21-30 age group

earning MYR3,000 a month and below to be more connected to

information.

Impact/benefits:

DiGi.Com is a candidate for the setting up of a business trust.

DiGi.Com in the past has found it difficult to distribute its cash to

shareholders in the form of dividends as it lacked sufficient accounting

reserves to match its strong cash generation. Depending on the form, a

business trust could solve DiGi‟s problem, as unlike companies,

business trusts can distribute their free cashflow, ie earnings before

debt repayments.

If DiGi were to go down this route, we estimate it would be able to

increase FY13-14 dividends by 21%, assuming (i) no tax savings,

(ii) it pays out 90% of its free cashflow as distributable income.

Our current DPS estimates of 23.7sen and 24.7sen for FY13 and

FY14 could rise to 28.7sen and 29.9sen. Yield at the closing price

of MYR5.28 would improve from 4.5% to 5.4-5.7%.

Model yet to be confirmed. At this stage, the form and shape of the

business trust model is not yet confirmed. However, if it is similar to that

of Singapore‟s, infrastructure owners such as DiGi could simply transfer

its assets into a trust and potentially unlock more value.

Stock has pre-empted this development. We had mooted this

possibility before in our report dated 24 July 2012. At this stage, we

think it likely that the performance of the stock since then has already

factored in this development. We maintain HOLD on the name with a

EV-derived TP of MYR4.73.

Telecommunications: Comparative valuations

Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)

Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F

DiGi.Com 5.28 4.73 Hold 17.5 18.8 30.2 28.1 15.1 7.4 4.5 44.0

Telekom 6.19 6.61 Buy 17.8 23.0 34.8 26.9 12.3 29.2 3.3 3.5

Axiata 6.50 7.30 Buy 30.0 32.1 21.7 20.2 (2.9) 7.0 3.2 2.7

Maxis 6.92 7.00 Hold 29.0 30.4 23.9 22.8 (5.2) 4.8 5.8 7.1

Source: Maybank KE

Telecommunications

Overweight (unchanged)

Gregory Yap [email protected] (65) 6432 1450

Wong Chew Hann [email protected] (03) 2297 8686

Page 15: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 15 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Other Highlights of Budget 2013

Key measures

Infrastructure MYR6.0b allocation under Private Financing Initiatives for various projects, among them; include refurbishment and maintenance of schools and health clinics; housing projects; water tank projects; flood mitigation plans and provision of sports facilities.

Allocation of MYR1.9b to build 123,000 affordable housing units in strategic locations in 2013. The initiative will be implemented by PR1MA, Syarikat Perumahan Nasional Berhad (SPNB) and Jabatan Perumahan Negara.

Felda will build new generation housing projects amounting to 20,000 units for a period of five years on 5,000 acres of land in Felda areas. The project will cost a sum of MYR1.5b. In addition, Felda will allocate MYR60m to revive traditional village houses in the Felda areas. Felda will also spend MYR100m a year for education and skills training programme as well as scholarships for 5,000 new generation children from which 30% or 2,000 people are children outside the Felda scheme.

MYR300m to provide education grants and financial assistance to build rumah arau for pre-school students in the interior of Sarawak, 1Malaysia Mobile Clinic and repair houses for the poor and needy.

Additional MYR1b to Special Fund for Building, Improvement, and Maintenance of Schools

MYR200m under Urban Transformation Programme for refurbishing existing vacant government buildings into Urban Transformation Centre to provide public and private services.

MYR500m for beautification of Klang River - River of life.

MYR300m for replacement of water pipelines and sewage system.

Rural development MYR1.2b to build a road network of 441 km.

MYR1.6b for water supply to 24,000 houses and electricity supply to 19,000 houses.

MYR137m to finance Program Desa Lestari involving 29 villages nationwide.

MYR88m to implement economic development programmes and water supply projects for the Orang Asli community and MYR100m to supply 40,000 water tanks for rainwater harvesting.

Consumer-related The minimum pension is increased from MYR720 to MYR820 for pensioners who have served for at least 25 years. This will involve 50,371 pensioners and cost MYR60m a year.

All military personnel totaling 125,708 will receive a special incentive of MYR200 a month and cost MYR301m.

Military reserve personnel will have a higher service allowance, for officers; to MYR7.80 from MYR5.80, for ordinary members to MYR6.00 from MYR4.00, this will involve 65,000 members.

A one-off MYR1,000 for armed forces members who opted for early retirement, served less than 21 years and did not receive pension. This will involve 224,000 members and cost MYR224m

1AZAM to provide opportunities for generate income for the low-income group involving 58,330 people and costing MYR400m.

Extension of BR1M 2.0 to include single unmarried individuals aged 21 and above and earning not more than MYR2,000 a month.

Allocation of MYR386m to ensure the prices of essential goods in Sabah and Sarawak as well as in Labuan is sold at lower prices through the opening of 57 KR1M outlets.

Individual income tax rate be reduced by 1 percentage point for each grouped annual income tax exceeding MYR2,500 to MYR50,000. The measure will remove 170,000 taxpayers from paying tax. Cooperative income tax rate be reduced between 1 to 7 percentage points on income tax groups. With this, 7 million cooperative members will enjoy this benefit

Schooling assistance of MYR100 to all primary and secondary school students amounting to MYR540m.

Increase book vouchers value for pre-university and university students to MYR250 from MYR200, costing MYR325m

Allocation of MYR1.5b to stabilise the prices of cooking oil in the market.

Source: 2013 Budget Speech

Page 16: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 16 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Other Highlights of Budget 2013 (continued)

Key measures

Education MYR500m to enhance teaching skills in core subjects through the Higher Order Thinking Skills approach.

MYR1.2b to be allocated to spur pre-school education through grant and tax incentives to pre-school operators.

The government will launch the Graduate Employability Blueprint by end-2012 to assist unemployed graduates.

Skills Development Fund Corporation of MYR440m to offer loans for trainees to undergo skills training.

MYR600m for 5 research universities to conduct research on strategic fields which have commercial potential.

Tax relief for children‟s higher education increased to MYR6,000 per person from MYR4,000.

Tax relief for savings in National Education Savings Scheme increased to MYR6,000 from MYR3,000.

Discounts between 10-20% will be provided to facilitate PTPTN loan repayment.

SME development MYR1b is provided under the SME Development Scheme managed by SME Bank to accelerate growth and expansion of SME.

Fund for Green Technology Financing Scheme (GTFS) which provides loans and subsidies to producers and users of green technology will be increased by MYR2b.

Others MYR358m allocated as development expenditure in conjunction with Visit Malaysia Year 2013/2014.

3 years extension on tax exemption for qualified tour operators

For school bus operators, MYR10,000 cash rebate and 2% interest rate subsidy on full loans for purchases of new buses to replace old busses (> 25 years)

Allocation of MYR591m to reduce crime rate through increasing number of police personnel and MYR20m to buy 1,000 motorcycles.

MYR20m for additional 70 new 1Malaysia clinics in 2013.

Source: 2013 Budget Speech

Page 17: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 17 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

RESEARCH OFFICES REGIONAL

P K BASU Regional Head, Research & Economics

(65) 6432 1821 [email protected]

WONG Chew Hann, CA Acting Regional Head of Institutional Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected]

THAM Mun Hon, CFA Regional Strategist (852) 2268 0630 [email protected]

ONG Seng Yeow Regional Products & Planning

(852) 2268 0644 [email protected]

ECONOMICS Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist

Singapore | Malaysia (603) 2297 8682 [email protected]

Luz LORENZO Economist

Philippines | Indonesia (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]

MALAYSIA WONG Chew Hann, CAHead of Research

(603) 2297 8686 [email protected] Strategy

Construction & Infrastructure Desmond CH’NG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] Banking - Regional

LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 [email protected]

Oil & Gas Automotive Shipping

ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected]

Plantations Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 [email protected]

Aviation Petrochem Power

YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] Gaming – Regional

Media Power TAN CHI WEI, CFA

(603) 2297 8690 [email protected] Construction & Infrastructure Power

WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected]

Property & REITs LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 [email protected]

Building Materials Manufacturing Technology

LEE Cheng Hooi Head of Retail

[email protected] Technicals

H NG KONG / CHINA Edward FUNGHead of Research

(852) 2268 0632 [email protected] Construction Ivan CHEUNG

(852) 2268 0634 [email protected] Property Industrial

Ivan LI (852) 2268 0641 [email protected] Banking & Finance

Jacqueline KO (852) 2268 0633 [email protected] Consumer Staples

Andy POON (852) 2268 0645 [email protected] Telecom & equipment

Alex YEUNG (852) 2268 0636 [email protected]

Industrial

IND A Jigar SHAHHead of Research

(91) 22 6623 2601 [email protected]

Oil & Gas Automobile Cement

Anubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605 [email protected] Metal & Mining

Capital goods Property Ganesh RAM

(91) 226623 2607 [email protected] Telecom Contractor

INGAPORE Stephanie WONGHead of Research

(65) 6432 1451 [email protected] Strategy

Small & Mid Caps Gregory YAP (65) 6432 1450 [email protected]

Technology & Manufacturing Telcos - Regional

Wilson LIEW

(65) 6432 1454 [email protected] Hotel & Resort Property & Construction

James KOH (65) 6432 1431 [email protected]

Logistics Resources Consumer

Small & Mid Caps YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6433 5730 [email protected]

Healthcare Offshore & Marine Alison FOK

(65) 6433 5745 [email protected] Services S-chips

Bernard CHIN (65) 6433 5726 [email protected] Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation)

ONG Kian Lin (65) 6432 1470 [email protected]

REITs / Property Wei Bin (65) 6432 1455 [email protected]

S-chips Small & Mid Caps

INDONESI Katarina SETIAWANHead of Research

(62) 21 2557 1125 [email protected] Consumer Strategy

Telcos Lucky ARIESANDI,CFA (62) 21 2557 1127 [email protected]

Base metals Coal Oil & Gas

Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected] Banking

Multifinance Pandu ANUGRAH

(62) 21 2557 1137 [email protected] Auto Heavy equipment

Plantation Toll road Adi N. WICAKSONO

(62) 21 2557 1130 [email protected] Generalist Anthony YUNUS

(62) 21 2557 1134 [email protected] Cement Infrastructure

Property Arwani PRANADJAYA (62) 21 2557 1129 [email protected]

Technicals

H LI PINES Luz LORENZOHead of Research

(63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]

Strategy Laura DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected]

Utilities Conglomerates

Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected]

Consumer Media Cement

Kenneth NERECINA (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] Conglomerates

Property Ports/ Logistics Katherine TAN

(63) 2 849 8843 [email protected] Banks Construction

Ramon ADVIENTO (63) 2 849 8842 [email protected]

Mining

THAILAND Mayuree CHOWVIKRANHead of Research

(66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected]

Strategy

Maria BRENDA SANCHEZ LAPIZ Co-Head of Research

Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected]

Consumer/ Big Caps

Andrew STOTZ Strategist

(66) 2658 6300 ext 5091 [email protected]

Suttatip PEERASUB

(66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected] Media Commerce

Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 [email protected] Energy

Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected]

Property Woraphon WIROONSRI

(66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 [email protected] Banking & Finance Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG

(66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected] Transportation Small cap.

Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401 [email protected] Electronics

Pongrat RATANATAVANANANDA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1398 [email protected] Services/ Small Caps

VI T AM Michael KOKALARI,CFA Head of Research

(84) 838 38 66 47 [email protected] Strategy Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen

(84) 844 55 58 88 x 8081 [email protected] Food and Beverage § Oil and Gas

Ngo Bich Van (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8084 [email protected] Banking

Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8242 [email protected] Technololy

Utilities Construction

Dang Thi Kim Thoa (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8083 [email protected] Consumer

Nguyen Trung Hoa +84 844 55 58 88 x 8088 [email protected] Steel

Sugar Resources

Page 18: Malaysia Budget 2013

1 October 2012 Page 18 of 20

Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES

DISCLAIMERS

This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security‟s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction‟s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors‟ returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may rec eive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may ar ise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.

This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “ant icipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report.

This report is prepared for the use of MKE‟s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all juri sdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report.

Malaysia

Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.

Singapore

This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in S ingapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of th is report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.

Thailand

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the pri or written permission of MBKET. MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

US

This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investment s to you under relevant legislation and regulations.

UK

This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.

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DISCLOSURES

Legal Entities Disclosures

Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission.Philippines:MATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Kim Eng Vietnam Securities Company (“KEVS”) (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under the StateSecuritiesCommission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

Disclosure of Interest

Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.

Singapore: As of 1 October 2012, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research

report.

Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.

Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission.

As of 1 October 2012, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.

MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.

OTHERS

Analyst Certification of Independence

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst‟s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst‟s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

Reminder

Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.

Definition of Ratings

Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system:

BUY Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

HOLD Total return is expected to be between -10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

SELL Total return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

Applicability of Ratings

The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investm ent ratings are only

applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings

as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):

Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings

BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth

CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio

Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter

CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset

DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share

NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders’ Funds

EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year

EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date

EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax

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Malaysia

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London

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New York

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Hong Kong

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Indonesia

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India

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Philippines

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Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue Makati City, Philippines 1200 Tel: (63) 2 849 8888

Fax: (63) 2 848 5738

Thailand

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999/9 The Offices at Central World, 20th - 21st Floor, Rama 1 Road Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand

Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales) Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)

Vietnam

In association with

Kim Eng Vietnam Securities Company 1st Floor, 255 Tran Hung Dao St. District 1

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel : (84) 838 38 66 36 Fax : (84) 838 38 66 39

Saudi Arabia

In association with

Anfaal Capital Villa 47, Tujjar Jeddah Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Street P.O. Box 126575

Jeddah 21352 Tel: (966) 2 6068686 Fax: (966) 26068787

South Asia Sales Trading

Connie TAN [email protected]

Tel: (65) 6333 5775 US Toll Free: 1 866 406 7447

North Asia Sales Trading

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Tel: (852) 2268 0800 US Toll Free: 1 866 598 2267

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