malaysia budget 2013
TRANSCRIPT
SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
17 October 2011
PP16832/01/2012 (029059)
Market update 1 October 2012
PP16832/01/2013 (031128)
Page 1 of 2
Malaysia
Budget 2013 One For The People
Market-neutral. As anticipated, Budget 2013 focused on sustaining
domestic demand as it continues to deliver a number of “goodies” to the
people to help them weather the rising cost of living, with focus, too, on
affordable housing. There is no change to our forecasts for KLCI core
earnings growth of 11.9% in 2012 and 9.8% in 2013. Our stock and
sector calls are also retained. We expect external volatility to persist
and reiterate our defensive call on the broader market, with selective
Overweights on oil & gas, construction, telco, gaming and power.
No sin tax hikes, but a surprise 5-ppt RPGT hike. As expected, there
were no hikes in taxes for the tobacco, brewery and gaming sectors.
This should be a fillip for the depressed share price of Genting
Malaysia, one of our top gaming BUYs. We remain Underweight on the
tobacco, Neutral on the brewery and Overweight on the gaming
sectors. The negative surprise was however a 5-ppt hike in RPGT for
property holdings of less than five years, despite slowing demand.
While generally negative for the property sector, we believe this is
largely priced in, and maintain our Neutral call on the developers.
Oil & gas: Incentivising downstream development. Our reading of
the Budget speech is that service providers in the refining, storage and
trading development chain at PETRONAS‟ RAPID, oil and gas storage
terminal in Johor, regasification plant in Melaka, and oil and gas
terminal in Sipitang, Sabah, would all qualify for the new 10-year 100%
Investment Tax Allowance. If we are right on this, then Dialog, Petronas
Gas, Gas Malaysia and Petronas Chemicals will be key beneficiaries,
as the incentive will accelerate their return on the heavy capex to be
incurred to support Malaysia‟s downstream oil & gas developments.
Joyous moment for the masses; but sugar subsidy cut. Retail
players under our coverage like AEON and Padini are the prime
beneficiaries of the bonuses for civil servants, reduced individual
income tax and tax reliefs, absence of GST, and other “goodies”
resulting in higher disposable income. We are Neutral on the consumer
sector, with selective BUYs on Padini and QL Resources. Meanwhile, a
lower sugar subsidy of 20sen/kg should be passed on; we expect only a
temporary shave in volume sales of MSM and Tradewinds.
Construction: No new names. The government‟s gross development
allocation for 2013 will be shaved 4.2% YoY to MYR47.8b.
Construction of major infrastructure and real estate projects such as the
Gemas-Johor Baru double track rail, West Coast Expressway, Tun
Razak Exchange and Sg Buloh Malaysia Rubber Land are targeted to
start in 2013. There was no mention of the KVMRT 2 and 3 lines; we
take that to mean that the implementation is still some time away. We
expect the two new lines to be given the government‟s go-ahead only
from mid-2013, with job tendering to start, the earliest, by end-2013.
Neutral(unchanged)
Current KLCI: 1,637 (28 Sep 2012) YE KLCI target: 1,620 (unchanged)
Wong Chew Hann [email protected] (03) 2297 8686
Table of Content
Page
Budget 2013: One For The People 1
Capital Market: Several Steps Forward 3
Consumer/Gaming: Something to Cheer About 5
Construction/Building Materials: No New Name 7
Oil & Gas/Petrochemicals: Incentivising
Downstream Developments
9
Plantation: Nothing Unsual 10
Property & REIT: Another Blow 11
Telecommunications: In Business We Trust 13
Other Highlights of Budget 2013 15
Top Picks
Stock Name Ticker Shr Price @ 28 Sep
TP
Public Bank PBK MK 14.38 16.00
Hong Leong Bank HLBK MK 13.40 15.30
Telekom T MK 6.19 6.61
Genting Malaysia GENM MK 3.50 4.05
SapuraKencana SAKP MK 2.32 2.68
Bumi Armada BAB MK 3.69 4.88
KLCC Prop KLCC MK 5.82 6.38
Top Glove TOPG MK 4.90 6.00
Source: Maybank KE
1 October 2012 Page 2 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Malaysia market earnings growth & valuation as at 28 Sep 2012
2011A 2012E 2013E
KLCI 30 @ 1,637 PE (x) 16.7 15.0 13.5
Earnings Growth (%) – current * 9.9% 11.9% 9.8%
Maybank IB’s Research Universe PE (x) 17.8 15.9 14.2
Earnings Growth (%) – current 13.3% 11.9% 12.1%
* Ex-Tenaga: +12.4% (2011), +7.5% (2012), +9.4% (2013); Source: Maybank KE
KLCI vs. 12M forward PER
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
221-Yr Forward PER Mean +1 SD -1 SD
(x)
Source: Maybank KE, Bloomberg
KLCI vs. Trailing P/B
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(x)KLCI P/B Mean
+1 SD -1 SD
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
KLCI’s Dividend Yield
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
1 October 2012 Page 3 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Several Steps Forward
Budget measures/incentives:
Securities Commission (SC) to provide framework for issuance
of AgroSukuk, while expenses for the issuance of such will be
given double deductions for four years (2012-2015).
Additional expenses incurred in the issuance of retail bonds
and retail sukuk to be given double deductions for four years
(2012-2015). Individual investors to be given stamp duty
exemptions on instruments relating to the transaction of such
instruments.
DanaInfra Nasional to issue retail bonds worth MYR300m by
end-2012 to finance the construction the MRT.
MYR400m allocation to Danajamin Nasional for the next two
years.
Income tax exemption for 10 years for Tun Razak Exchange
(TRX) status companies; stamp duty exemption, industrial
building allowance and accelerated capital allowance for TRX
Marquee-status companies as well as tax exemptions for property
developers.
Business Trusts to be given the same tax treatment as a
company. The transfer of any business, asset and real property to
a business trust will be given stamp duty and RPGT examptions.
Impact/benefits:
A step forward in Malaysia’s debt capital market development:
(i) AgroSukuk will offer agriculture-based companies the alternative of
tapping on an efficient capital market, and further accelerate the
development of the upstream agri-based industries. Companies
involved in palm oil and rubber cultivation will gain. Potential
beneficiaries are all palm oil plantation groups and Top Glove
(TOPG MK; BUY; TP: MYR6.00), which is buying land for rubber
cultivation to reduce the volatility of its latex cost and ensure a
minimum supply.
(ii) The incentives for issuers and retain investors in encouraging retail
participation of bonds/sukuk will increase the growth and depth of
the bond/sukuk market.
(iii) Separately, the allocation to Danajamin Nasional increases its
ability to provide guarantee facilities to eligible companies seeking
to obtain funds from the bond market at reasonable costs.
Capital Market
Not Rated (unchanged)
Desmond Ch’ng [email protected] (603) 2297 8680
Wong Chew Hann [email protected] (603) 2297 8686
1 October 2012 Page 4 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Seeks to accelerate Malaysia’s development as an international
financial hub. TRX, which has an estimated GDV of MYR26b, is
expected to attract 250 international financial services companies and
offer 40,000 knowledge and skilled job opportunities. However, the
incoming supply of office space from the TRX is a concern, as it will
impact rental yields in the KL central business district. Among REITs in
the office segment that could be impacted are AmanahRaya REIT
(AARET MK; HOLD; TP: MYR0.91) and Quill Capita (QUIL MK; HOLD;
TP: MYR1.10).
The new Business Trust incentive may compel telcos like
Digi.Com (DIGI MK; HOLD; TP: MYR4.73) to move into this business
structure, hence, raising its yield potential to shareholders (please see
the telco section of this writeup for details).
1 October 2012 Page 5 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Something To Cheer About
Budget measures/incentives:
No excise hikes for tobacco and brewery; gaming taxes
unchanged.
“Goodies” for civil servants – a one-and-a-half-month bonus, half
a month paid during the just-concluded Aidilfiltri, and a half-month
each at end-Dec 2012 and Jan 2013.
“Goodies” for the people – Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M
2.0) for low-income (less than MYR3,000/month) households and
low-income (less than MYR2,000/month) unmarried individuals.
Allowances for farmers and fishermen.
A MYR0.20/kg reduction in the sugar subsidy to MYR0.34/kg, to
curb unhealthy excess sugar consumption.
A 19,000ha (+4.9%) increase in paddy plantations with the
development and expansion of four new paddy granaries in Kota
Belud, Batang Lupar, Rompin and Pekan.
Tax exemptions for tour operators to boost tourism.
Impact/benefits:
Sugar subsidy reduction: MSM and Tradewinds to be negatively
impacted, but only slightly. This reduction in subsidy is consistent
with the government‟s aim of curbing unhealthy excess sugar
consumption by Malaysians – the average Malaysian consumes 48kg
of sugar p.a., well above the world average of 31 kg. We think the sugar
companies will be allowed to raise selling prices by MYR0.20/kg to
recoup the additional cost, which is in line with previous
implementations of subsidy cuts. In the past, we observe that subsidy
reductions resulted in sugar volumes decreases among industrial
consumers whereas demand from retail consumers continued to grow.
On a net basis, we expect sugar volume sales to contract by 1-2ppts,
impacting MSM (MSM MK; HOLD; TP: MYR4.70) and Tradewinds
Malaysia (TWI MK; Not Rated). The impact on FGVH, which holds a
51%-equity stake in MSM, is relatively muted given that MSM‟s
contribution to FGVH‟s PATAMI is only 13% for FY12 and 12% for
FY13, based on our forecasts. F&B manufacturers with strong brand
portfolio such as Nestle (NESZ MK; SELL; TP: MYR54.20) and F&N
Holdings (FNH MK; HOLD; TP: MYR20.79) will be able to pass on the
higher costs gradually.
More rice supply means more profits, in our opinion. The initiatives
to increase rice plantation areas, boost water supply infrastructure and
a MYR165m allocation for research into enhancing paddy yields will
likely boost both yields and quality of rice delivered. This will enable
Padiberas (PNL MK; HOLD; TP: MYR3.40) to enjoy higher utilisation,
lower costs and command higher selling prices thanks to the better
product quality.
Consumer / Gaming
Neutral / OW (unchanged)
Kang Chun Ee [email protected] (603) 2297 8675
Chai Li Shin [email protected] (603) 2297 8684 Chong Ooi Ming [email protected] (603) 2297 8676 Ivan Yap [email protected] (603) 2297 8612 Samuel Yin Shao Yang [email protected] (603) 2297 8916
Kang Chun Ee [email protected] (603) 2297 8675
Chai Li Shin [email protected] (603) 2297 8684
1 October 2012 Page 6 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Steady fish supply for QL Resources. A living allowance of
MYR200/month, fish catch incentive of MYR0.10-MYR0.20/kg, as well
as insurance scheme for fishermen with a maximum coverage of
MYR100,000 will help reduce the non-weather factors and ensure
stable fish landings. This is on top of the MYR300m earmarked for the
building and refurbishment of fishermen‟s houses in Budget 2012. Our
call on QL Resources (QLG MK; TP: MYR3.75) remains a BUY.
Joyous moment for the masses. Retail players under our coverage
like AEON Co (AEON MK; HOLD; TP: MYR9.30) and Padini (PAD MK;
BUY; TP: MYR2.61) would be the prime beneficiaries from:
(i) The bonus for civil servants;
(ii) Reduced individual income tax (for chargeable income below
MYR50k p.a.) and an absence of GST;
(iii) The government‟s intention to boost tourism; and
(iv) Other government “goodies”
All these will result in higher disposable income. In particular, the bonus
for civil servants that will be paid in end-Dec 2012 and Jan 2013 will
spur spending during the school holidays and year-end festivals.
Maintain Neutral on the consumer sector. Due to the mixed results,
we retain our Neutral call on the sector. We think that these measures
will help to support consumer demand amid a weak external economic
environment. Higher production costs for consumer F&B producers
from the sugar subsidy cut are likely to be passed on to the end
consumers.
Maintain Overweight on the gaming sector. The status quo outcome
for both casino and NFO-related taxes is a relief, and this continues to
support our Overweight call on the sector for its defensive attributes.
We remain BUYers of Genting Malaysia and Berjaya Sports Toto.
Consumer sector: Comparative valuations
Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)
Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F
AEON Co 11.00 9.30 Hold 52.9 57.5 20.8 19.1 12.3 8.7 1.5 2.7
BAT (M) 60.40 55.00 Sell 252.0 276.2 24.0 21.9 (1.4) 9.6 4.1 33.7
Padiberas 3.26 3.40 Hold 35.2 35.9 9.3 9.1 (6.6) 2.0 8.1 1.3
Carlsberg 11.50 13.50 Buy 50.4 60.0 22.8 19.2 15.7 19.0 5.1 5.3
F&N Hldgs 18.20 20.79 Hold 82.1 56.8 22.2 32.0 (5.4) (30.8) 2.5 4.1
Guinness 15.26 14.50 Hold 64.4 70.2 23.7 21.7 16.4 9.1 6.4 6.1
JTI 6.65 6.70 Hold 47.0 47.9 14.1 13.9 (8.2) 1.9 3.4 4.7
KFC 3.89 4.00 Hold 18.2 16.7 21.4 23.3 (3.9) (8.2) 1.3 2.6
Padini 2.10 2.61 Buy 13.1 16.0 16.1 13.1 25.5 22.6 2.9 3.7
Nestle 61.50 54.20 Sell 194.6 216.4 31.6 28.4 16.6 11.2 3.3 21.7
QL Res 3.15 3.75 Buy 15.6 17.3 20.2 18.2 6.6 10.9 1.5 3.0
MSM 4.90 4.70 Hold 37.7 37.0 13.0 13.2 4.7 (1.9) 3.7 2.1
KPJ 6.10 5.84 Sell 24.1 24.4 25.3 25.0 6.6 1.2 1.9 3.6
Source: Maybank KE
Gaming sector: Comparative valuations
Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)
Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F
BST 4.33 5.00 Buy 29.0 30.9 14.9 14.0 6.9 6.4 5.5 9.5
MPHB 3.50 3.82 Hold 23.4 24.5 15.0 14.3 (16.1) 4.7 2.1 1.5
GENT 8.71 10.00 Hold 68.6 72.4 12.7 12.0 2.5 5.5 0.7 1.6
GENM 3.50 4.05 Buy 27.5 29.7 12.7 11.8 11.3 8.0 2.0 1.5
Source: Maybank KE
1 October 2012 Page 7 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
No New Names
Budget measures/incentives:
Gross development spending of MYR47.8b (-4.2% YoY). In
terms of sectoral allocation, economic services will receive the
highest share at 63% or MYR30b (MYR9.4b of which is for the
transport subsector), followed by social services (MYR11.1b),
security (MYR4.6b) and general administration (MYR2b).
Construction sector real GDP is anticipated to grow 11.2% in 2013
(2012: +15.5%; 2011: +4.6%).
Gross development expenditure
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
E
(MYR'm)
Source: Economic Reports (Treasury), Maybank KE
Projects to start in 2013
Type Project
Property Tun Razak Exchange (TRX)
Sg Buloh Malaysia Rubber Land
Rail Gemas-Johor Baru double track
Roads Donggongan-Simpang Jalan Papar Spur (Pkg 1), Sabah
Pekan-Nenasi-Endau, Pahang
Batu Maung-Pulau Pinang Second Bridge (Bayan Lepas Exp)
West Coast Expressway – Taiping to Banting
Source: 2012/13 Economic Report
MYR6b Private Finance Initiatives 2. This continues from 2012‟s
MYR6b Special Stimulus Package (PFI 1) undertaken to address
the impact of an increasingly challenging external outlook. Among
the projects identified under PFI 2 are the refurbishment and
maintenance of schools and health clinics, housing projects, water
tank projects, flood mitigation plans and provision of sports
facilities.
MYR4.5b for rural development projects. This includes MYR1.2b
to construct 441km of rural and village link roads, and MYR1.6b for
utility infrastructure (water and electricity) projects.
Construction / Building materials OW / UW (unchanged)
Wong Chew Hann, CA [email protected] (603) 2297 8686
Lee Yen Ling [email protected] (603) 2297 8691
1 October 2012 Page 8 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Impact/benefits:
No new names. Major infrastructure and property projects that are to
start in 2013, namely, the Gemas-Johor Baru double track rail, West
Coast Expressway, Tun Razak Exchange and Sg Buloh Malaysia
Rubber Land, are not new projects. There was no mention of the
KVMRT 2 and 3 lines, and we take that to mean that the technical and
feasibility studies are still underway, and that implementation is still
some time away. This is also not new to us since we only expected the
two new lines to be given the government‟s go-ahead from mid-2013
with job tendering to start, the earliest, in end-2013.
We continue to Overweight the construction sector. Our
Underweight call on the building materials sub-sector is premised on
our less than optimistic outlook for the steel players amid falling iron ore
prices, which may prompt inventory writedowns and dumping activities
from China into the Malaysian market.
Construction sector: Comparative valuations
Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)
Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F
Eversendai 1.48 2.17 Buy 15.4 18.1 9.6 8.2 2.0 17.5 2.4 0.8
Gamuda 3.44 4.10 Buy 23.0 27.3 15.0 12.6 27.8 19.0 2.7 1.7
HSL 1.59 2.25 Buy 15.8 18.0 10.1 8.8 17.9 13.9 1.7 1.8
IJM Corp 4.72 5.60 Hold 30.8 33.2 15.3 14.2 19.9 8.0 1.9 1.2
Litrak 4.00 4.30 Hold 17.3 23.7 23.2 16.9 (9.1) 37.2 3.2 4.9
WCT 2.70 3.15 Buy 19.6 20.1 13.8 13.4 10.4 2.6 2.8 1.4
Source: Maybank KE
Building Material sector: Comparative valuations
Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)
Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F
Ann Joo 1.33 1.30 Sell 16.1 9.7 8.3 13.7 (5.3) (39.8) 3.2 0.6
Kinsteel 0.36 0.40 Hold (11.3) 4.8 n.a. 7.5 289.7 (142.5) 2.8 0.5
Lafarge 8.90 8.50 Hold 37.4 42.5 23.8 20.9 7.5 13.6 4.0 2.4
Source: Maybank KE
1 October 2012 Page 9 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Incentivising Downstream Developments
Budget measures/incentives:
An Investment Tax Allowance (ITA) of 100% for 10 years will be
provided to qualified companies that invest in refinery activities
on petroleum products.
A 100% income tax exemption for the first three years will be
given to LNG trading companies. Commodity trading approved
under the Global Incentive for Trading (GIFT) programme will be
extended to include other commodities such as agriculture, refined
raw materials, base minerals and chemicals.
Impact/benefits:
Service providers to benefit too? Our reading of the Budget speech
is that service providers in the development chain of refining, storage
and trading at: (i) PETRONAS‟ RAPID in Johor, (ii) oil and storage
terminal in Johor, (iii) regasification plant in Melaka, and (iv) oil and gas
terminal in Sipitang, Sabah, also qualify for the 10-year 100% ITA.
If we are right on this, then Dialog, Petronas Gas, Gas Malaysia and
Petronas Chemicals will be the key beneficiaries, as the incentive will
accelerate the return on the heavy capex they incur to support
Malaysia‟s oil & gas developments.
Dialog: We estimate Dialog‟s capex for its petroleum and LNG
storage facilities in Pengerang, Johor to be MYR6-8b. Dialog also
has a tank terminal operation in Tanjung Langsat, Johor.
Petronas Gas: It will start its MYR2b regasification operations in
Melaka by end-2012. Our back-of-envelope calculations suggest
tax savings and enhancement to PGas‟ bottomline by 4% or
MYR65m p.a. if it qualifies for the 100% 10-year ITA. This new ITA
incentive would also incentivise PGas to set up a second
regasification project in Pengerang to support the RAPID project.
Gas Malaysia: It has commenced negotiations with PETRONAS to
secure additional natural gas supply from the country‟s proposed
second regasification project in Pengerang. This additional gas
intake is crucial to support planned light industries in Pengerang.
For this, capex will be spent on the connectivity of gas pipelines.
Petronas Chemicals: It has commenced the construction of a
1.2m tonne p.a. urea plant in Sipitang whichis expected to be
completed in 2015. The project cost is estimated at USD1.5b.
Related Oil and Gas companies, Petronas Chemicals: Comparative valuations
Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)
Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F
Dialog 2.39 3.05 Buy 8.3 9.4 29.0 25.6 20.3 13.3 1.8 5.6
Petronas Gas 19.00 20.20 Hold 72.7 73.1 26.1 26.0 53.0 0.5 2.6 4.4
Gas Malaysia 2.63 2.76 Hold 17.8 11.5 14.8 22.9 NA (35.4) 4.4 3.6
PChem 6.40 7.05 Buy 45.8 48.8 14.0 13.1 27.2 6.6 4.2 2.6
Source: Maybank KE
Oil & Gas / Petrochemicals OW / OW (unchanged)
Wong Chew Hann, CA [email protected] (603) 2297 8688
Chong Ooi Ming [email protected] (603) 2297 8676
1 October 2012 Page 10 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Nothing Unusual
Budget measures/incentives:
MYR432m is allocated under the Economic Transformation
Programme NKEA for an oil palm replanting programme.
MYR127m was allocated for the development of high-value
oleo derivatives to transform the downstream industry towards a
higher production of derivatives.
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR): Felda will implement and
complete new-generation housing projects amounting to 20,000
units over 5 years on 5,000 acres of land. The project will cost
MYR1.5b (or MYR300m p.a.). In addition, Felda will allocate
MYR60m to revive traditional village houses. Felda will also spend
MYR100m a year for education and skills training programme.
Impact/benefits:
Oil palm replanting scheme is an ongoing initiative. This is nothing
new. On the other hand, there were no details provided on the
MYR127m allocated for the development of high-value oleo derivatives.
Nonetheless, the sum is small and likely to benefit only existing players
in the downstream industry like IOI Corp, KL Kepong, Sime and FGVH.
CSR spending to be Felda’s prerogative and not FGVH, in our
opinion. Recall that under the land lease agreement between FGVH
and Felda, FGVH will pay Felda an annual fixed payment of
MYR248.5m plus 15% of yearly plantation operating profit, which works
out to be approximately MYR500m in total per year. This is in addition
to the yearly profits Felda receives in the form of dividend FGVH pays
to shareholders. Felda will likely channel these yearly receipts (ie lease
payments and dividends) from FGVH for its CSR obligation in housing,
education and skills training for the benefit of Felda settlers. We think
the additional spending will not come out of FGVH‟s pockets.
Plantation sector: Comparative valuations
Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)
Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F
Genting Plant 9.20 9.10 Hold 58.3 56.2 15.8 16.4 36.2 (3.6) 1.3 2.0
IOI Corp 4.98 5.24 Hold 29.5 29.9 16.9 16.7 8.7 1.4 3.1 2.4
KL Kepong 22.06 23.50 Hold 125.0 118.9 17.6 18.5 31.0 (4.9) 3.5 3.2
Sime Darby 9.80 11.00 Buy 65.6 69.1 14.9 14.2 79.5 5.3 3.5 2.2
Felda 4.83 5.20 Hold 40.1 28.8 12.0 16.8 NA (28.2) 2.9 2.9
SOP 6.55 8.00 Buy 56.0 51.6 11.7 12.7 58.7 (7.9) 0.6 2.0
TSH Resources 2.20 2.35 Hold 14.5 11.7 15.2 18.8 40.8 (19.3) 1.6 2.0
TH Plantations 2.38 2.45 Hold 24.5 19.2 9.7 12.4 33.9 (21.6) 4.1 1.8
Ta Ann 3.92 5.30 Buy 41.3 26.4 9.5 14.8 104.5 (36.1) 3.0 1.6
Source: Maybank KE
Plantations
Neutral (unchanged)
Ong Chee Ting, CA [email protected] (603) 2297 8768 Chai Li Shin [email protected] (603) 2297 8684
1 October 2012 Page 11 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Another Blow
Budget measures/incentives:
Higher RPGT. The government has raised Real Property Gains
Tax (RPGT) by: (i) 5ppt to 15%, for properties held and disposed
within two years, and (ii) 5ppt to 10%, for properties disposed held
for between two and five years. The „zero‟ RPGT for disposals after
five years of holding is unchanged.
Extension of 50% stamp duty exemption. The 50% stamp duty
exemption for the first-time purchase of residential property will be
extended for another two years from 1 Jan 2013 to 31 Dec 2014.
The price cap for residential property purchases qualifying for this
50% exemption has been raised to MYR400,000 (from
MYR350,000) to reduce the financial burden of first-time
homebuyers and to address the issue of rising property prices.
Higher income qualifying limit for My First Home Scheme. To
enable more Malaysians to own their first residential property, the
government proposes to raise the income limit for individual
housing loans to MYR5,000/month (from MYR3,000) or joint-loans
(between husband and wife) of up to MYR10,000/month for
financing of houses costing up to MYR400,000.
Housing for the people. The government will allocate MYR1.9b to
build 123,000 affordable housing units (priced at MYR30,000-
MYR400,000/unit) in 2013. The initiative will be implemented by
PR1MA, Syarikat Perumahan Nasional Bhd (SPNB) and Jabatan
Perumahan Negara.
No change in 10% withholding tax for REITS. No change in the
current 10% withholding tax structure which will stay till 31 Dec
2016 for non-corporate institutional and individual investors.
Impact/benefits:
RPGT hike: A negative surprise. We had not expected any RPGT
hikes given the slowdown in the broad property market. Fortunately, the
quantum of +5% with a maximum tax of 15% is not onerous as
compared to the widely speculated up-to-30% tax, which had been the
structure prior to Apr 2007. This shows that the government is still
promoting homeownership while keeping tabs on speculation.
Pain is temporary. We expect the higher RPGT to lower speculative
activities over the near term but it is unlikely to deter real property
demand significantly over the longer-term, which is still dominated/
supported by owner occupiers and a young demographic. Moreover,
projects at strategic locations with decent investment value/capital
appreciation potential should continue to receive strong demand.
Affordable home is the key. Higher income limits for My First Home
Scheme will boost the demand for affordable homes further. Already,
developers are switching their focus to affordable homes to tackle the
strong demand especially for affordable landed properties. For
instance, Glomac‟s 191.8-acre new township project in Dengkil will
Property & REIT
Neutral (Maintained)
Wong Wei Sum, CFA [email protected] (603) 2297 8679
1 October 2012 Page 12 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
focus on affordable homes priced from MYR350,000 onwards whilst
Mah Sing will introduce more affordable products (SoVo and lifestyle
suites priced from MYR208,000 onwards) in its upcoming Southville
project in Bangi. We also expect to see an increasing supply of
small/shoe-box units (450-750sq.ft.) in the future. Beneficiaries include
developers with more involvements in affordable housing – Glomac,
Hua Yang (Not Rated), LBS (Not Rated) and KSL (Not Rated).
Property: Maintain Neutral, but target prices lowered. We expect
investors‟ sentiment on property stocks to stay weak given demand
hold-backs: 1) by the upcoming 13th general election, and 2) amid a
weak global economic outlook and stricter mortgage lending by the
banks. We now apply higher discounts of 20-45% (+5%) (15-40%
previously) to RNAVs as we price in these risks. We prefer defensive
asset owners like KLCC Property and REITs over the developers.
REIT: Status quo. As we had anticipated, the current 10% withholding
tax (expiring end-2016) is unchanged. We remain comfortable about M-
REITs for their defensive qualities and solid fundamentals. Yields have
however compressed to 6.9% (average; 6.2% net), vs. 3.52% for 10-
year MGS. We maintain a Neutral stance on the M-REIT sector.
SunREIT offers a higher yield of 5.4% (4.9% net) vs. its retail peers‟
4.9% (4.4% net). Surprises could come from yield-accretive acquisitions
(medical centre/ colleges) in the near-term.
Review of RPGT under Budget 2013
Year Prior to 1 Apr 07 (citizen/foreign) (%)
1 Apr 07 - 31 Dec 09 (citizen/foreign) (%)
Effective 1 Jan 10 (citizen/foreign) (%)
Effective 1 Jan 2012 (citizen/foreign) (%)
Effective 1 Jan 2013 (citizen/foreign) (%)
1st 30/30 0/0 5/5 10/10 15/15
2nd 30/30 0/0 5/5 10/10 15/15
3rd 20/30 0/0 5/5 5/5 10/10
4th 15/30 0/0 5/5 5/5 10/10
5th 5/30 0/0 5/5 5/5 10/10
from 6th onward
0/5 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
i) RPGT exemption on gains from the disposal of one unit of residential property once in a lifetime by an individual who is a citizen or a permanent resident of Malaysia
ii) RPGT exemption on gains from disposal of property between parents and children, husband and wife, grandparents and grandchildren
iii) RPGT is charged only on net gains after deducting all related costs such as purchase price, renovation costs and incidental costs e.g. legal
fees and stamp duty
iv) Exemption up to RM10,000 or 10% of the net gains, whichever is higher, is given to an individual.
Source: Budget 2013
Changes in our target price and ratings for the property developers
Before After
Company RM Rec. RM Rec. Remarks
Glomac 1.10 BUY 1.00 BUY Raise discount from 40% to 45% (+5%); small cap and low trading volume
as well as perceived political risk KLCCP 6.38 BUY 6.38 BUY No change; potential REIT-ing of its world class assets will unlock its deep
valuations. Mah Sing 2.38 HOLD 2.21 HOLD Raise discount from 30% to 35% (+5%); perceived political risk and
significant contributions from its Rawang and Bangi township developments are expected from 2013 onwards only
SP Setia 4.00 HOLD 3.77 HOLD Raise discount from 15% to 20% (+5%); perceived political risk and low
trading volume given low free float of 10%. We expect the placement of 322.6m new shares to dilute our TP by 3%
Sunway 2.62 BUY 2.45 HOLD Raise discount from 40% to 45% (+5%); perceived political risk and
slowdown in demand for high-end properties UEML 2.05 HOLD 1.86 HOLD Raise discount from 40% to 45% (+5%); perceived political risk and it may
miss its MYR3b sales target (vs. our sales forecasts of MYR2.48b) for FY12
due to potential delays in launching its MYR1b Aurora Tower and MK22 given the slowdown in demand for high-end/ high rise properties;
Source: Maybank KE
1 October 2012 Page 13 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Property sector: Comparative valuations
Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)
Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F
Developers
Glomac 0.81 1.00 BUY 12.4 13.9 6.5 5.8 32.9 12.1 6.9 0.4
KLCC Prop 5.82 6.38 BUY 20.2 26.2 28.8 22.2 (19.8) 29.7 1.7 0.8
Mah Sing 2.11 2.21 HOLD 20.3 26.1 10.4 8.1 43.0 28.6 4.9 1.5
SP Setia 3.64 3.77 HOLD 16.7 19.9 21.8 18.3 43.8 19.2 3.3 1.8
Sunway Bhd 2.30 2.45 HOLD 25.2 27.3 9.1 8.4 4.6 8.3 2.4 0.9
UEM Land 1.68 1.86 HOLD 6.5 7.7 25.8 21.8 21.8 18.5 0.9 1.4
REITS
Axis REIT 3.00 2.80 HOLD 16.4 18.3 18.3 16.4 6.5 11.6 5.7 1.4
AmanahRaya 0.94 0.91 HOLD 7.4 7.5 12.7 12.5 2.8 1.4 6.8 0.9
CMMT 1.77 1.62 HOLD 7.3 7.6 24.2 23.3 247.6 4.1 4.4 1.2
Quill Capita 1.18 1.10 HOLD 8.8 9.1 13.4 13.0 4.8 3.4 6.6 0.9
Sunway REIT 1.45 1.53 HOLD 6.7 7.3 21.8 20.0 9.0 9.0 4.7 1.3
Pavilion REIT 1.40 1.40 HOLD 4.8 6.2 29.2 22.6 NA 29.2 4.2 1.5
Source: Maybank KE
1 October 2012 Page 14 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
In Business We Trust
Budget measures/incentives:
Promoting business trusts. The Capital Markets and Services Act
2007 has been amended to allow companies to carry out their
operations through business trusts. To encourage its development,
exemption from stamp duty and real property gains tax will be
given. In addition, business trusts will be given the same tax
treatment as a company.
One-off rebate of MYR200 for youths to purchase 3G
smartphones. This is to encourage youths in the 21-30 age group
earning MYR3,000 a month and below to be more connected to
information.
Impact/benefits:
DiGi.Com is a candidate for the setting up of a business trust.
DiGi.Com in the past has found it difficult to distribute its cash to
shareholders in the form of dividends as it lacked sufficient accounting
reserves to match its strong cash generation. Depending on the form, a
business trust could solve DiGi‟s problem, as unlike companies,
business trusts can distribute their free cashflow, ie earnings before
debt repayments.
If DiGi were to go down this route, we estimate it would be able to
increase FY13-14 dividends by 21%, assuming (i) no tax savings,
(ii) it pays out 90% of its free cashflow as distributable income.
Our current DPS estimates of 23.7sen and 24.7sen for FY13 and
FY14 could rise to 28.7sen and 29.9sen. Yield at the closing price
of MYR5.28 would improve from 4.5% to 5.4-5.7%.
Model yet to be confirmed. At this stage, the form and shape of the
business trust model is not yet confirmed. However, if it is similar to that
of Singapore‟s, infrastructure owners such as DiGi could simply transfer
its assets into a trust and potentially unlock more value.
Stock has pre-empted this development. We had mooted this
possibility before in our report dated 24 July 2012. At this stage, we
think it likely that the performance of the stock since then has already
factored in this development. We maintain HOLD on the name with a
EV-derived TP of MYR4.73.
Telecommunications: Comparative valuations
Price EPS (sen) PE (x) EPS Growth (%) G. Yld (%) P/B (x)
Sep-28 TP Rec CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 11F CY 12F CY 12F CY 12F
DiGi.Com 5.28 4.73 Hold 17.5 18.8 30.2 28.1 15.1 7.4 4.5 44.0
Telekom 6.19 6.61 Buy 17.8 23.0 34.8 26.9 12.3 29.2 3.3 3.5
Axiata 6.50 7.30 Buy 30.0 32.1 21.7 20.2 (2.9) 7.0 3.2 2.7
Maxis 6.92 7.00 Hold 29.0 30.4 23.9 22.8 (5.2) 4.8 5.8 7.1
Source: Maybank KE
Telecommunications
Overweight (unchanged)
Gregory Yap [email protected] (65) 6432 1450
Wong Chew Hann [email protected] (03) 2297 8686
1 October 2012 Page 15 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Other Highlights of Budget 2013
Key measures
Infrastructure MYR6.0b allocation under Private Financing Initiatives for various projects, among them; include refurbishment and maintenance of schools and health clinics; housing projects; water tank projects; flood mitigation plans and provision of sports facilities.
Allocation of MYR1.9b to build 123,000 affordable housing units in strategic locations in 2013. The initiative will be implemented by PR1MA, Syarikat Perumahan Nasional Berhad (SPNB) and Jabatan Perumahan Negara.
Felda will build new generation housing projects amounting to 20,000 units for a period of five years on 5,000 acres of land in Felda areas. The project will cost a sum of MYR1.5b. In addition, Felda will allocate MYR60m to revive traditional village houses in the Felda areas. Felda will also spend MYR100m a year for education and skills training programme as well as scholarships for 5,000 new generation children from which 30% or 2,000 people are children outside the Felda scheme.
MYR300m to provide education grants and financial assistance to build rumah arau for pre-school students in the interior of Sarawak, 1Malaysia Mobile Clinic and repair houses for the poor and needy.
Additional MYR1b to Special Fund for Building, Improvement, and Maintenance of Schools
MYR200m under Urban Transformation Programme for refurbishing existing vacant government buildings into Urban Transformation Centre to provide public and private services.
MYR500m for beautification of Klang River - River of life.
MYR300m for replacement of water pipelines and sewage system.
Rural development MYR1.2b to build a road network of 441 km.
MYR1.6b for water supply to 24,000 houses and electricity supply to 19,000 houses.
MYR137m to finance Program Desa Lestari involving 29 villages nationwide.
MYR88m to implement economic development programmes and water supply projects for the Orang Asli community and MYR100m to supply 40,000 water tanks for rainwater harvesting.
Consumer-related The minimum pension is increased from MYR720 to MYR820 for pensioners who have served for at least 25 years. This will involve 50,371 pensioners and cost MYR60m a year.
All military personnel totaling 125,708 will receive a special incentive of MYR200 a month and cost MYR301m.
Military reserve personnel will have a higher service allowance, for officers; to MYR7.80 from MYR5.80, for ordinary members to MYR6.00 from MYR4.00, this will involve 65,000 members.
A one-off MYR1,000 for armed forces members who opted for early retirement, served less than 21 years and did not receive pension. This will involve 224,000 members and cost MYR224m
1AZAM to provide opportunities for generate income for the low-income group involving 58,330 people and costing MYR400m.
Extension of BR1M 2.0 to include single unmarried individuals aged 21 and above and earning not more than MYR2,000 a month.
Allocation of MYR386m to ensure the prices of essential goods in Sabah and Sarawak as well as in Labuan is sold at lower prices through the opening of 57 KR1M outlets.
Individual income tax rate be reduced by 1 percentage point for each grouped annual income tax exceeding MYR2,500 to MYR50,000. The measure will remove 170,000 taxpayers from paying tax. Cooperative income tax rate be reduced between 1 to 7 percentage points on income tax groups. With this, 7 million cooperative members will enjoy this benefit
Schooling assistance of MYR100 to all primary and secondary school students amounting to MYR540m.
Increase book vouchers value for pre-university and university students to MYR250 from MYR200, costing MYR325m
Allocation of MYR1.5b to stabilise the prices of cooking oil in the market.
Source: 2013 Budget Speech
1 October 2012 Page 16 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
Other Highlights of Budget 2013 (continued)
Key measures
Education MYR500m to enhance teaching skills in core subjects through the Higher Order Thinking Skills approach.
MYR1.2b to be allocated to spur pre-school education through grant and tax incentives to pre-school operators.
The government will launch the Graduate Employability Blueprint by end-2012 to assist unemployed graduates.
Skills Development Fund Corporation of MYR440m to offer loans for trainees to undergo skills training.
MYR600m for 5 research universities to conduct research on strategic fields which have commercial potential.
Tax relief for children‟s higher education increased to MYR6,000 per person from MYR4,000.
Tax relief for savings in National Education Savings Scheme increased to MYR6,000 from MYR3,000.
Discounts between 10-20% will be provided to facilitate PTPTN loan repayment.
SME development MYR1b is provided under the SME Development Scheme managed by SME Bank to accelerate growth and expansion of SME.
Fund for Green Technology Financing Scheme (GTFS) which provides loans and subsidies to producers and users of green technology will be increased by MYR2b.
Others MYR358m allocated as development expenditure in conjunction with Visit Malaysia Year 2013/2014.
3 years extension on tax exemption for qualified tour operators
For school bus operators, MYR10,000 cash rebate and 2% interest rate subsidy on full loans for purchases of new buses to replace old busses (> 25 years)
Allocation of MYR591m to reduce crime rate through increasing number of police personnel and MYR20m to buy 1,000 motorcycles.
MYR20m for additional 70 new 1Malaysia clinics in 2013.
Source: 2013 Budget Speech
1 October 2012 Page 17 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
RESEARCH OFFICES REGIONAL
P K BASU Regional Head, Research & Economics
(65) 6432 1821 [email protected]
WONG Chew Hann, CA Acting Regional Head of Institutional Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected]
THAM Mun Hon, CFA Regional Strategist (852) 2268 0630 [email protected]
ONG Seng Yeow Regional Products & Planning
(852) 2268 0644 [email protected]
ECONOMICS Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist
Singapore | Malaysia (603) 2297 8682 [email protected]
Luz LORENZO Economist
Philippines | Indonesia (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]
MALAYSIA WONG Chew Hann, CAHead of Research
(603) 2297 8686 [email protected] Strategy
Construction & Infrastructure Desmond CH’NG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] Banking - Regional
LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 [email protected]
Oil & Gas Automotive Shipping
ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected]
Plantations Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 [email protected]
Aviation Petrochem Power
YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] Gaming – Regional
Media Power TAN CHI WEI, CFA
(603) 2297 8690 [email protected] Construction & Infrastructure Power
WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected]
Property & REITs LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 [email protected]
Building Materials Manufacturing Technology
LEE Cheng Hooi Head of Retail
[email protected] Technicals
H NG KONG / CHINA Edward FUNGHead of Research
(852) 2268 0632 [email protected] Construction Ivan CHEUNG
(852) 2268 0634 [email protected] Property Industrial
Ivan LI (852) 2268 0641 [email protected] Banking & Finance
Jacqueline KO (852) 2268 0633 [email protected] Consumer Staples
Andy POON (852) 2268 0645 [email protected] Telecom & equipment
Alex YEUNG (852) 2268 0636 [email protected]
Industrial
IND A Jigar SHAHHead of Research
(91) 22 6623 2601 [email protected]
Oil & Gas Automobile Cement
Anubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605 [email protected] Metal & Mining
Capital goods Property Ganesh RAM
(91) 226623 2607 [email protected] Telecom Contractor
INGAPORE Stephanie WONGHead of Research
(65) 6432 1451 [email protected] Strategy
Small & Mid Caps Gregory YAP (65) 6432 1450 [email protected]
Technology & Manufacturing Telcos - Regional
Wilson LIEW
(65) 6432 1454 [email protected] Hotel & Resort Property & Construction
James KOH (65) 6432 1431 [email protected]
Logistics Resources Consumer
Small & Mid Caps YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6433 5730 [email protected]
Healthcare Offshore & Marine Alison FOK
(65) 6433 5745 [email protected] Services S-chips
Bernard CHIN (65) 6433 5726 [email protected] Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation)
ONG Kian Lin (65) 6432 1470 [email protected]
REITs / Property Wei Bin (65) 6432 1455 [email protected]
S-chips Small & Mid Caps
INDONESI Katarina SETIAWANHead of Research
(62) 21 2557 1125 [email protected] Consumer Strategy
Telcos Lucky ARIESANDI,CFA (62) 21 2557 1127 [email protected]
Base metals Coal Oil & Gas
Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected] Banking
Multifinance Pandu ANUGRAH
(62) 21 2557 1137 [email protected] Auto Heavy equipment
Plantation Toll road Adi N. WICAKSONO
(62) 21 2557 1130 [email protected] Generalist Anthony YUNUS
(62) 21 2557 1134 [email protected] Cement Infrastructure
Property Arwani PRANADJAYA (62) 21 2557 1129 [email protected]
Technicals
H LI PINES Luz LORENZOHead of Research
(63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]
Strategy Laura DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected]
Utilities Conglomerates
Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected]
Consumer Media Cement
Kenneth NERECINA (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] Conglomerates
Property Ports/ Logistics Katherine TAN
(63) 2 849 8843 [email protected] Banks Construction
Ramon ADVIENTO (63) 2 849 8842 [email protected]
Mining
THAILAND Mayuree CHOWVIKRANHead of Research
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected]
Strategy
Maria BRENDA SANCHEZ LAPIZ Co-Head of Research
Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected]
Consumer/ Big Caps
Andrew STOTZ Strategist
(66) 2658 6300 ext 5091 [email protected]
Suttatip PEERASUB
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected] Media Commerce
Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 [email protected] Energy
Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected]
Property Woraphon WIROONSRI
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 [email protected] Banking & Finance Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected] Transportation Small cap.
Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401 [email protected] Electronics
Pongrat RATANATAVANANANDA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1398 [email protected] Services/ Small Caps
VI T AM Michael KOKALARI,CFA Head of Research
(84) 838 38 66 47 [email protected] Strategy Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen
(84) 844 55 58 88 x 8081 [email protected] Food and Beverage § Oil and Gas
Ngo Bich Van (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8084 [email protected] Banking
Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8242 [email protected] Technololy
Utilities Construction
Dang Thi Kim Thoa (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8083 [email protected] Consumer
Nguyen Trung Hoa +84 844 55 58 88 x 8088 [email protected] Steel
Sugar Resources
1 October 2012 Page 18 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS
This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security‟s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction‟s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors‟ returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may rec eive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may ar ise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “ant icipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report.
This report is prepared for the use of MKE‟s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all juri sdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report.
Malaysia
Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.
Singapore
This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in S ingapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of th is report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.
Thailand
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the pri or written permission of MBKET. MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
US
This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investment s to you under relevant legislation and regulations.
UK
This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
1 October 2012 Page 19 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
Page 1 of 2
DISCLOSURES
Legal Entities Disclosures
Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission.Philippines:MATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Kim Eng Vietnam Securities Company (“KEVS”) (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under the StateSecuritiesCommission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.
Singapore: As of 1 October 2012, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research
report.
Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.
Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission.
As of 1 October 2012, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst‟s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst‟s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system:
BUY Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
HOLD Total return is expected to be between -10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
SELL Total return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investm ent ratings are only
applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings
as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):
Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings
BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth
CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio
Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter
CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset
DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share
NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders’ Funds
EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year
EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date
EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax
1 October 2012 Page 20 of 20
Market Update: Budget 2013 17 October 2011
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Malaysia
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Indonesia
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India
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Fax: (63) 2 848 5738
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