malcolm mcculloch "energy cultures applied to energy for development"
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
Energy Cultures applied to Energy for Development
What is ‘Sustainability’?
People
People Planet
People Planet Prosperity
People Planet Prosperity
6
The BIG challenge
8
Global Sustainability Indicators
Source: http://hdr.undp.org
2007
9
Global Sustainability Challenge
Source: http://hdr.undp.org
2007
The global energy system is changing…
Source: BP Statistical Review of Energy 2016
Total Global Energy Traded
Energy system undergoing revolution
Source: BP Statistical Review of Energy 2016
Solar costs are falling dramatically since 2008
1976
1978
1980
19821984 1986
1988
1991
19952000
2004
2006
2008
2009
2011
2013 2014
2015
y=Ax-1.369R²=0.864
Pricehalvesevery20months
y=Ax-9.51R²=0.988
Pricehalvesevery13months
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1.0 2.0 4.0 8.0 16.0 32.0 64.0
ModuleCost($/W
)
Cumula veTime(Yearssince1975)
Battery price are also falling
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ba
eryCost($/kW
h)
Nykvistetal.
McCulloch
Linear(Nykvistetal.)
But not everyone has access to modern energy…
1.2 billion people…
But PV alone is not a silver bullet
1
8
Solar Home Systems
1
9
Larger systems: challenges to integrate successfully…
Over engineered –
under used
No local
ownership
Inappropriate
loads
Donate and
forget
One size fits all
Little local
capability
To be successful, Future Energy Systems have to meet
peoples’ aspirations and capabilities
Iterative co-learning
Idea
Build
Deploy
Measure
Data
Learn
SONG: Solar Nano Grids Team
A case study – Lemolo B, Nakuru, Kenya
I500m
Internally
Displaced
People
community of
about 300
households
Lemolo B: Located on disused sisal farm.
Lemolo B: Very simple village plan
Lemola B: People
Need a lens to Learn about the people.
Material
Culture
PracticesNorms
Probing the existing Energy Culture
1) 30 questionnaires understanding
existing material culture
and practices
2) Service Value Tests
3) Interviews with stakeholders
4) Observations
Material
Culture
PracticesNorms
Material Culture: Appliances
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Torch
SHS (LED)
Solar bottle lamp
Wood fire
Paraffin lamp
Material
Culture
PracticesNorms
Material
Culture
PracticesNorms
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Pro
jecte
d N
um
ber
of
Peo
ple
Spend on Kerosene per Week (Shilling)
Practices: Kerosene Expenditure
Material
Culture
PracticesNorms
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Pro
jecte
d C
um
ula
tive
Nu
mb
er
of
Peo
ple
Pro
jecte
d N
um
ber
of
Peo
ple
Spend on Kerosene per Week (Shilling)
People Cumulative People
Practices: Energy Expenditure
Aspirations: Service Value Test
10 Women
10 Elders
10 Youth
Material
Culture
PracticesNorms
Step 1: Identify AspirationsMaterial
Culture
PracticesNorms
Step 1: Identify AspirationsMaterial
Culture
PracticesNorms
Step 2: Value QuantificationMaterial
Culture
PracticesNorms
Step 3: Value VerificationMaterial
Culture
PracticesNorms
Step 4: Analysis - household
Improved_ligh ngMobile_phone_charging
Television
Electric_cooker
RadioTorch
Fridge
Incubator
Hairdryer
CD/DVD_player
Washingmachine/dryer
Fan
Welder
Shaver
Sewing_machine
Computer
IroningElectric_ke le
Solar_powered_shower
HardEaseofDeliveryasfir
stinterven
onE
asy
Low Near-termEconomicBenefit High
HouseholdSVTMap:Near-termEconomicBenefitvsEaseofDeliverywithPopularity No.ofgroupswhichiden fiedeachservice:
Thereasstandard-Pink6-Red 3-Purple5-Blue 2-Orange4-Green 1-Brown
Material
Culture
PracticesNorms
3
8
Step 4: Analysis - community
WaterEduca on
Improvedroads
Securityligh ng
Preprimaryeduca on
Irriga on
Tractorandpes cides(N/A)
GrindingmachineWelder
Salonandbarber
ShaveCu er
Carpentry
EnterpriseCentreColdStore
HealthCentre
Church
Improvedsanita on(N/A)
Ambulance(N/A)
SportsplaygroundMarketplace
Banking(N/A)
Improvedmobilerecep on(N/A)
Governmentgrants(N/A)
Airtel(N/A)
HardEaseofDeliveryasfir
stIn
terven
onEasy
Low Near-termEconomicBenefitHigh
CommunitySVTMap:Near-termEconomicBenefitvsEaseofDeliverywithPopularity
No.ofgroupswhichiden fiedeachservice:6-Red5-Blue4-Green3-Purple
2-Orange1-Brown
Material
Culture
PracticesNorms
County Level Policy
National
Level Policy
Available
Technology
Grid Expansion
Initiatives
Healthcare education
Previous/ongoing
contact with NGO’s
Level of
Education
Upbringing
AdvertisingGeographical
location
Household
Income
Climate
Employment
/ Livelihood
Access to social
media/ current affairs
Demographics of
household
Access to transport
services
Presence of
constant/changing
markets
Influence of
tradition/culture/religi
on
In-Country
Research Agenda
External factors from stakeholder interviews
Material
Culture
PracticesNorms
Concept Design: Physical
Home
Community/Business Service
Battery Charging Station
Concept Design: Relationships
The hub
3.5 kW of PV
Installing the charging lockers
Customizing the batteries
Battery charging
The Home Kit
Working with the Village Energy Community
Signing up with new participants
End user engagement
Local training
Home installation by local trained people
More hands …
Corn ready for grinding
Grinding the flour
Energy access for a few more people …
Did we get it right?
• Not everything!
• First of a kind is hard.
• Need to continue to learn..
Reflections
Material
Culture
PracticesNorms
