malimu intro to epidemiology
TRANSCRIPT
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Introduction to Epidemiology
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Learning Objectives
At the end of this session, the resident should be able to:
♦ Define epidemiology♦ Describe the history of epidemiology♦ List the uses of epidemiology♦ Describe the basic epidemiologic methods♦ Describe the tasks of the epidemiologist
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Epidemiology is …
♦ For a student– “the worst taught course in Medical school”
♦ For a clinician– “The science of making the obvious obscure”
♦ For the statistician– “The science of long division”
♦ For the average person– “ The study of skin diseases”
♦ And for you ?
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The Etymology of Epidemiology
epi = upon demos = people logy = study of
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Fundamental axioms (assumptions)
♦ Diseases (or other health events) do not occur at random– They occur in specific population groups exposed in a
particular way (at risk)
♦ Diseases (or other health events) have causal and preventive factors that can be identified– hence researchers investigate these factors and apply
the knowledge to control disease
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Definition of epidemiology
« The study of the distribution and determinants
of health related states or events in specified populations
and the application of this studyto the control of health problems. »
Last, 1988
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Key words:
♦ Study Basic science
♦ Distribution Time, place, person
♦ Determinants Cause, risk factors
♦ Event / Health status
♦ Population Public health
♦ Application Information for action
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Distribution: Descriptive Epidemiology
♦ What, Who, When, and Where
♦ Frequency: – Number, rates, and risk– Quantify diseases to determine magnitude
♦ Patterns: – Time, Place, and Person
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Determinants: Analytic Epidemiology
♦ Why and How
♦ Causes and influences
♦ Evidence for control and prevention
♦ Compare between exposure groups to
obtain causal relationships
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Health related events
♦ Epidemic Communicable Disease♦ Endemic Communicable Disease♦ Non-communicable Disease♦ Chronic Diseases♦ Injuries♦ MCH♦ Occupational, and Environmental Health♦ Health Behaviors
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Clinic vs. Epidemiology
Clinician♦ Person♦ Medical history,
physical examination♦ Differential diagnosis ♦ Diagnostic test ♦ Treatment
Epidemiologist♦ Population ♦ Surveillance
descriptive epidemiology
♦ Comparison♦ Analytical epidemioogy ♦ Intervention
(prevention/control)
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History of epidemiology
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Origin of epidemiologic concepts500 BC when Hippocrates wrote his book“On Airs, Waters and Places”
The chapter on environmental influences on health was about the following risk factors:
• the hot (weather)• the cold (weather)• the winds (weather)• the water quality (contamination)• drinking and eating habits (behaviour)• indolence• exercise and labour
Therefore, disease does not just happen
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Classical theories of disease causation
Miasma theory 1700sbased on notion that bad air causes illnessmalaria = mal aires (bad air)
Contangion Vivum theory 1800sinvolves a living contangion each disease has a specific cause.
two examples strengthened the theoryMarseilles plague in 1720muscardine in 1816 (fungal silkworm disease)
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Timeline
400 B.C. Hippocrates (environment)1546 Fracastoro (sci. of microbiology)1662 Graunt, John (Life tables))1747 Lind (Scurvey)1796 Jenner (smallpox)1839 Farr, William (vital statistics)1846 Panum (measles)1847 Semmelweis (childbed fever)1848-54 Snow, John (Cholera)1860-90 Pasteur and Koch (Bacteria-TB)
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John Graunt
♦ 1662
♦ Natural & Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality: weekly tally of deaths by cause in London
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William Farr
♦ 1839
♦ Superintendent of the Statistics Department of the General Registry Office for Great Britain
♦ Father of surveillance and vital statistics
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John Snow
♦ Cholera Epidemics– Linelist– Epidemic Curve– Spotmap– Table by district– Table by household
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Cholera outbreak, London 1854
WORKHOUSE
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SILVER STREET
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PUMP B
PUMP
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PUMP A
PUMP
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Epidemiology and Disease
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Levels of Disease
SporadicSporadic
EndemicEndemic
EpidemicEpidemic
PandemicPandemicIncreasing amount of diseaseIncreasing amount of disease
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Epidemiologic Triad
AgentAgent
HostHost EnvironmentEnvironment
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Host factors
Physiologic
Immunologic
Behavioral
Genetic
•Influence the chance for disease or its severity
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Agent Factors
Infectious
Nutritional
Diseases with no agent
Toxic
•Necessary for disease to occur
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Environmental Factors
Physical
Socioeconomic
Biologic
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Host, Agent, Environment
Host Agent EnvironmentAgeSexRace/EthnicityReligionSESMarital statusLifestyleExerciseBehaviorCo-morbidityGenetic makeup
BiologicMicroorganisms
ChemicalToxins, tobacco,alcohol, drugs
PhysicalTrauma, radiation,fire
NutritionLack of, excess
Disease vectorsPopulation densitySubstances insurroundings andworkplaceAir qualityWeatherNoiseFood and water sourcesSpecial environments:Hospitals, day-care,institutions, bath houses,crack houses, refugeecamps
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Epidemics occur when host, agent and environmental factors are not in balance
♦ New agent ♦ Change in existing agent (infectivity,
pathogenicity, virulence)♦ Change in number of susceptibles in population♦ Environmental changes affecting transmission of
agent or growth of agent
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Reservoir
Habitat in which the agent normally lives and multiplies♦ People
– Symptomatic - Smallpox– Asymptomatic - HIV
♦ Animals (zoonoses)– Brucellosis– Plague
♦ Environmental– Histoplasmosis– Legionnaires’ bacillus
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Mode of Transmission
♦ Direct – Contact - Cutaneous Anthrax, hookworm– Droplet –Smallpox
♦ Indirect– Airborne – Histoplasmosis, Inhalation Anthrax– Vehicleborne food or water - Salmonella– Vectorborne
• Mechanical – Shigella by fly appendages• Biological – Malaria (maturation)
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Chain of Infection
ReservoirReservoir
Mode of Mode of TransmissionTransmission
Susceptible Susceptible HostHost
Mode of Mode of TransmissionTransmission
Other susceptible hosts
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Characteristics of Field Epidemiology
♦ The problem or issue is urgent or a priority.
♦ A prompt response is needed.
♦ Work at the field site is essential
♦ Interventions require communication with diverse groups with different interests.
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Applied Epidemiology
♦ Practical, action-oriented, and relevant
♦ Provides data for public health decision-making
♦ Focuses on prevention/ intervention
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Epidemiology helps us to:
♦ Determine the magnitude and trends
♦ Identify the aetiology or cause of disease
♦ Determine the mode of transmission
♦ Identify risk factors or susceptibility
♦ Study the natural history of diseases
♦ Determine the role of the environment
♦ Evaluate the impact of the control measures
♦ Provide information for health planning
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Basic Epidemiologic Methods
♦ Count cases (events)
♦ Define involved population
♦ Determine rates/proportions
♦ Compare rates
♦ Make inferences
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Epidemiology “3 Steps”
♦ Counting number of events or conditions in populations or subgroups of persons. (C)
♦ Dividing the number of events by the number of persons in the population to make rates. (D)
♦ Comparing rates from different populations to make inferences about the cause for the observed differences in rates. (C)
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Epidemiology: Step 1 - Counting
♦ Counting number of events or conditions in populations or subgroups of persons.
♦ The first step in descriptive epidemiology – How many persons experienced a
particular condition?– Count = “numerator”.
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Hang-gliding
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Number of accidents according to time of the dayHang-gliding accidents (before)
0102030405060708090
100
Morning Mid-morning Mid-afternoon Evening
Time of the day
Acci
dent
s
MaleFemale
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Number of accidents according to time of the dayHang-gliding accidents (after)
0102030405060708090
100
Morning Mid-morning Mid-afternoon Evening
Time of the day
Acc
iden
ts
MaleFemale
What is inappropriate here?
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Epidemiology: Step 2 - Dividing
♦ Dividing the number of events by the number of persons at risk in the population to make rates.
♦ The second step in descriptive epidemiology involves:– What group of persons experienced the event?– Population group = denominator.– Use events and population to make: proportions,
rates, odds.
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Epidemiology: Step 3 - Comparing
♦ Comparing rates from different populations to make inferences about possible cause for the observed differences in rates:
– Analytic epidemiology• Cohort (exposed vs. non-exposed)• Case-control (sick vs. healthy)
– Compare rates to make rate ratios or rate differences.– Comparison of odds to make odds ratios.– Use ratios or differences to identify risk factors. – Use statistical tests to determine reliability of ratios or
differences.
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The epidemiologic study
♦ in epidemiology we make comparisons
♦ we compare people with regard to certain characteristics or risk factors
♦ we examine where they differ or resemble with each other
♦ we exploit these differences to measure risk for disease or protection from disease by making comparisons
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Earliest account of comparison
‘Test your servants please, for ten days, and let us have vegetables to eat and water to drink. And then see how we look and how the boys look who are eating the king’s food, and on the basis of what you see decide what you do with your servants.’
Book of Daniel 1:12-16
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Test your servants please
Overseer
Vegetables and water
King’s food and wine
experiment
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Earliest account of comparison(cont’d)
The overseer listened to them in this matter and tested them ten days. After ten days they looked healthier and better fed than the other boys who were eating the king’s food. So the caretaker took away the king’s food and wine and gave them vegetables.
Daniel 1:12-16
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Test your patients please
Researcher
Drug A Drug
B
experiment
Testing for drug efficacy
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Main activities of the epidemiologist
♦ Describe an event in terms of :– Time When?– PlaceWhere?– Person Who?
♦ Analyse the association between the event (disease, death) and its determinants (risk factors)
♦ Make recommendations: preventive actions, control measures
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Tasks of Epidemiologist
♦ Surveillance♦ Investigation♦ Analysis and interpretation♦ Communication♦ Evaluation♦ Research and Management
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Recap
Now that you have completed this session you should be able to:
♦ Define epidemiology♦ Describe the history of epidemiology♦ List the uses of epidemiology♦ Describe the basic epidemiologic methods♦ Describe the tasks of the epidemiologist
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Resources
♦ Gregg, Chapter 2, ♦ Principles of Epi, page 2-10
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Acknowledgements
♦ D. Klaucke, E. Maes CDC Atlanta♦ Dennis Coulombier