management ventures, inc. corporate: mvi-worldwide.com, licensed: mvi-insights.com © 2009 mvi...

Management Ventures, Inc.Management Ventures, Inc.

Corporate: MVI-Worldwide.com, Licensed: MVI-Insights.com © 2009 MVI

•Presented by:

•Brendan Langan•Director of Retail Insight

•April 29, 2009

Chain DrugChain DrugRe-Planning for an Re-Planning for an UncertainUncertain Reality Reality

5-3 Corporate: MVI-Worldwide.com, Licensed: MVI-Insights.com © 2009 MVI

MVI Planning Forum

• Up, Down or Sideways?

• The New Path to Partnership

• Full Steam Ahead

• Living on “Borrowed” Time


Up, Down or Sideways?Up, Down or Sideways?Re-Planning for an Uncertain RealityRe-Planning for an Uncertain Reality

Source: MVI analysis

• Step 1: Survival of the Fittest• Decade of growth and consolidation• Not everyone will be here, at least in current form• Near-term challenging, but this too shall pass

• Step 2: Retail Climate Change• Health care providers 1st, retailers 2nd

• Step-change underway, necessary given heavy Rx economic model, growing complexity of health care & hyper-competition

• Step 3: Mandate for Retail Step-Change• Drug must look very different 2 - 3 years out

– Requires step-changes to the box, assortment, and brand necessary to build clearly defined & differentiated consumer value proposition

• Must be easy, relevant, and/or different


If You Only Use If You Only Use 22 Slides Today… Slides Today…

Source: MVI research and analysis

Chain drug to grow at 3.6% CAGR 08-10E to USD159 million, 10.3% of $ Added… Slowing growth and deflation (PL & Generics)

Despite slowdown, WAG still projected to generate 60% of chain drug sales thru 2010E, adding $600MM in FE sales and 280 stores

Longs enters base in 2010E, to outpace WAG in FE sales adding $900 million thru 2010E (5% CAGR) and 80 new stores

Shrinking store base and per store FE and Rx productivity driving decline in sales and stores


• Past (1990 – 2008)• Double digit growth and consolidation, fueled by rapid growth of

Rx, changing economic and operating model, and need for scale

• Present (2009 - 2011)• Prescription unit and sales volume slowing• From channels to duopolies, leaders are pulling way • Consolidation accelerating and competition intensifying• Unemployment is the indicator to watch (now 8.5%)

• Future (2010 and Beyond)• Aging and diversification of the population• Health and wellness trends• Fewer, more sophisticated and focused customers

– Did we lose something along the way?

Channel: Key Planning Considerations


Location, Location, Location

One Size Does Not Fit All

Customer (She) is Always Right

Less is More

Cash is King!

Channel: Key Planning Considerations


MVI Planning Forum






Walgreens New Sense of UrgencyWalgreens New Sense of Urgency

Jeff Rein Named CEO

Walmart Launches $4 Generics

Acquired CuraScript Infusion Pharmacy

Acquires I-Trax and Whole Health, Forms New Health and Wellness Division

Q4 FY07 Earnings Miss

Credit Ratings Cut, Announced Plans to Slow Organic Growth

Re-launched Prescription Savings Club (PSC)

Walgreens Withdraws Bid for Longs, Credit Ratings Cut

Abrupt Departure of Jeff Rein, Alan McNally Named Chairman and Acting-CEO

Further slowed organic store growth

Cut corporate and field management positions by 9%

Acquired Take Care Health

Appointed new CEO Greg Wasson

2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Company reports, MVI research and analysis

CVS Announced Caremark Merger

Acquired Happy Harry’s

Acquired Option Care

2nd “Unsolicited” Bid For Longs

Historical Stock Price (Jan 2006–Feb 2009)Historical Stock Price (Jan 2006–Feb 2009)


Walgreens 2011: More From the CoreWalgreens 2011: More From the Core

Source: Walgreen Co., MVI research


7.0%

9.0%

7.4%

4.0%

2.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1997 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

Slowing Organic Unit GrowthSlowing Organic Unit Growth

9% CAGR

2.5% - 3%2.5% - 3%

529161 475 280 200

Net Organic New Drugstores

Source: Company reports, MVI research

Walgreens 2003 2008CAGR 03-08

2013ECAGR 08-13E

Retail Sales 31.3 56.1 12.3% 73.7 5.6%

Front-end 12.4 20.7 10.9% 28.0 6.2%

Pharmacy 19.0 35.3 13.2% 45.7 5.3%

Stores 4,224 6,443 8.8% 7,784 3.9%


Mandate for Step-Change: Mandate for Step-Change: Enhancing the Enhancing the Shopping Experience and Shop-abilityShopping Experience and Shop-ability

Source: MVI store visit

A Drugstore or Santa’s Workshop?A Drugstore or Santa’s Workshop?

What Does the Walgreens Brand Stand For?What Does the Walgreens Brand Stand For?


Redefining Convenience: Redefining Convenience: When Location When Location isn’t Enough & More Doesn’t Always = Moreisn’t Enough & More Doesn’t Always = More

Source: MVI store visit, research and analysis, Walgreen Co.


The Challenge and the OpportunityThe Challenge and the Opportunity

# of items in Basket

• % of Baskets and Average Front-End Items per Basket

Source: Walgreen Co.

Cross-sell Learn and reward

Understand and grow

Solution sell

GOAL


Step 1: Who is She? How Does She Shop?Step 1: Who is She? How Does She Shop?



Segmenting the ShopperSegmenting the Shopper

• Efficient Eileen: Represents approximately 45% of sales. Young Boomer (or older Generation Xer) who is a frequent shopper – enjoying the convenient locations, efficiency and information delivered at the shelf. Shops with immediate need in mind (i.e. OTC).

• Active Amy: Represents approximately 17% of sales. Busy mom who is a fickle, but family-focused convenience seeker. Less likely to stock-up and is not loyal to a specific retailer.

• Socialite Stella: Represents approximately 16% of sales. Fun seeking consumer who enjoys the treasure hunt and likes the current store. Walgreens loyalist, who tends to be African American. Fill-in shopper who gets to know the employees personally and is a social-influencer.

• Merry Maria: Represents approximately 11% of sales. Advice seeking, community-conscious shopper who tends to be Hispanic, a parent and interested in getting health and wellness advice. This Walgreens-loyal shopper reviews the circular before shopping and shops for entire basket.

• Care Seeking Carol: Represents approximately 4% of sales. Older demographic (62 years old and older) with special needs. She is a heavy pharmacy user and health care is her top priority. Considers herself a traditionalist and does not typically use the Internet . Often has a smaller basket size and is looking for a personal service.

Source: Company presentation, MVI research and analysis


Segmenting the Trip MissionsSegmenting the Trip Missions

Source: Company presentation, MVI research and analysis


Walgreens New Merchandising StrategyWalgreens New Merchandising Strategy“Placing Bets” – Consumers, Categories, Vendors“Placing Bets” – Consumers, Categories, Vendors

Category Identifiers

““We have to stop betting $2 on every horse. Not all sales from all We have to stop betting $2 on every horse. Not all sales from all categories are equal.” — John Fleming, Walmart Sept. 2008categories are equal.” — John Fleming, Walmart Sept. 2008

““We have to stop betting $2 on every horse. Not all sales from all We have to stop betting $2 on every horse. Not all sales from all categories are equal.” — John Fleming, Walmart Sept. 2008categories are equal.” — John Fleming, Walmart Sept. 2008

SignatureSignature PowerPower StapleStaple ComplementComplement

“Best in US”

“Products that are representative of who we are – the product categories we want to win in.” - - Kim Feil

Examples: OTC, pharmacy, skin care, vitamins, photo, etc.

“Best in Drug”

“Products that are critical to a drug retailer and are part of a person’s everyday life.” - Kim Feil

Examples: batteries, candy, dry groceries, snacks, etc.

“In the Game”

Routine categories with varying growth prospects.

Examples: candles, stationary, household cleaners, toys

“Convenience”

“Categories you expect to find with something else.” – Kim Feil

Examples: alarm clocks, apparel, electrical, hardware, light bulbs, frames, etc.

Source: MVI research and analysis, Walgreen Co.


Grouping the Store into Solution Centers or Grouping the Store into Solution Centers or “Worlds” to Improve the Experience“Worlds” to Improve the Experience

Source: MVI Store Visits, MVI Analysis


Redefining ConvenienceRedefining ConvenienceFrom Stack it High… to Less is MoreFrom Stack it High… to Less is More

Today Tomorrow



CCR: Building Loyalty with Distinctive Assortment, Access and Affordability

Today Tomorrow

Something for everyone

Best Offerings for valued customers

Item/department focus Convenient solutions for essentials and discretionary needs

Item-intensive / labor demand

Personalized customer service

Source: Walgreen Co., MVI research and analysis


Walgreens 2011: Key Planning ConsiderationsFrom One-Way to Fully Integrated – Overnight?

• Optimize the Assortment• Placing bets on categories, what role do you serve?• Not just about reducing SKUs, though big push on there as well• Brand agnostic – developing solutions for her

• Amplify Vendor Relationships• Alignment, collaboration, innovation and focus• Increased 2-way transparency and accountability (Contribution Profit)• Requires mindset shift from sq ft growth to optimization!

• Effective Pricing and Promotion• Evaluating all promotional vehicles, including revamp of weekly ad• Less space (ad) and off-shelf = fewer, more impactful themed

solutions• More dedicated to getting price/value right on KVIs (hybrid Hi Lo)

• Enhance the Shopping Experience• No longer one size fits all, changing profiles and adjacencies• Increased focus on store standards, integrated marketing

THE WAY FORWARD: Partnership and CapabilitiesTHE WAY FORWARD: Partnership and CapabilitiesTHE WAY FORWARD: Partnership and CapabilitiesTHE WAY FORWARD: Partnership and Capabilities


MVI Planning Forum

• Chain Drug: Up, Down or Sideways?





25.2

31.8 34.0

42.1 44.9

47.2

54.5 56.2 58.7

61.6 64.9

7.9 9.5 10.7 13.3 14.5 15.3 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.4

4,132

5,328 5,420

6,151 6,245 6,394

6,953 7,030 7,123 7,216 7,326

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

(5.0)

5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0

85.0

03 04 05 06 07 08E 09E 10E 11E 12E 13E

Reta

il D

rugs

tore

s

Reta

il Sa

les U

SD B

illio

ns

Total Retail Sales FE Sales Stores

CVS Growth Projections 2003-2013ECVS Growth Projections 2003-2013ERetail Sales Projected to Grow to $64.9 billionRetail Sales Projected to Grow to $64.9 billion

Source: MVI estimates; company reports

Eckerd

Osco/Sav-on

Longs Drug


The Big 3: Same Direction, but Different The Big 3: Same Direction, but Different Rates of GrowthRates of Growth

Retail

Drugstores

Source: Company reports, MVI analysis

6,923

6,636

4,915

Eckerd

Osco / Sav-on

Longs

HappyHarry’s

Brooks Eckerd


Locking Up Share in Key Growth MarketsDecade of M&A Fueled Expansion/Diversification

• Longs Drug Stores: • Completed acquisition of 521 Longs Drug Stores in October 2008, gaining

valuable real estate and market share in California, Hawaii, Nevada and Arizona

• Also picked up 4 distributions centers and RxAmerica PBM business

• MinuteClinic• Small, but one of the single most strategic acquisitions of all• Forms core of patient-focused healthcare strategy, plus growing demand

from B2B customers (pull strategy)• Slowing growth to focus on expansion of services

• Osco/Sav-on• Remodels went off without a hitch, stores have been transformed to meet

with CVS standards• Southern California now outpacing “Core” CVS, both in terms of sales per

building and margin– S. California now the largest sales producing market in the chain

• Eckerd• Continued progress in core acquisition markets• Increased marketing efforts to gain Rx share in the face of stiff competition



Acquisition of Longs Accelerated Acquisition of Longs Accelerated Expansion in N. Cal and HawaiiExpansion in N. Cal and Hawaii


2008 Performance Longs CVSSales $5.2B $78.4B*

Retail Sales $4.8B $47.4B*

Rx Sales Mix 51.4% 67.5%

FE Sales Mix 48.6% 32.5%

Private Label Penetration 8% 16%

Sales per store $9.1M $7.4M

Sales per sq ft $512 $602

Stores 529 6,394

Distrbution Centers 4 14

Store Prototype TVA LIFE

* Adjusted Retail sales, Longs & Calendar Shift


Operated 6,923 Stores in 40 states and the Operated 6,923 Stores in 40 states and the District of Columbia as of December 31District of Columbia as of December 31, 2008, 2008

389

493

147

127 2

33

126

87

295

681

244

288

184

432

64

12

28

233 289

242

311372

57

49

DE - 1MD - 166

NJ - 257

CT - 133RI - 57

MA - 329

34

6

2 31

4

29 46

35

10

CVS States

CVS and Longs StatesSource: Company reports, MVI Research

19

DC - 53

Longs Corporate HQLongs Distribution Facility

Longs provided 529 stores and 4 DCs, making California

CVS’s largest market

Longs provided 529 stores and 4 DCs, making California

CVS’s largest market

45525

2

44

Longs stores


The Competitive Landscape:The Competitive Landscape:Increased Direct CompetitionIncreased Direct Competition

Source: Company reports, MVI Research

CVS LDG WAG RADCalifornia 400 460 506 611Hawaii 1 41 1 0Nevada 68 25 69 1Arizona 129 2 231 0Total 598 528 807 612% Ttl Stores 9.4% 100.0% 12.1% 12.5%

• Longs gives CVS a leading position throughout Central and Northern California, and Hawaii

• It would have taken CVS 10 years to develop these markets organically

• Facing intense direct in-channel and small box competition


Longs Heavy Shoppers More Affluent and Longs Heavy Shoppers More Affluent and Ethnically DiverseEthnically Diverse

Source: MVI analysis based on Mid year 2008 IRI Panel Data

6%

% Heavy ShoppersTotal US Average

CVS Longs Drug

Affluence: Doing Well

35. 9% 39.5% 55.3%

Ethnicity: Hispanic HH

9.1% 8.6% 14.6%

FMHH Age: 35-54 37.3% 36.8% 36.5%

Annual Spend $ 448 $ 440

Share of Dollar Requirements

6.0% 5.4%

Trips per Shopper 18.0 18.1

Dollars per Trip $ 24.9 $ 24.3

Heavy Shoppers: Demographic Summary


East Coast vs. West Coast DrugstoresEast Coast vs. West Coast DrugstoresThe Longs Optimization ChallengeThe Longs Optimization Challenge


How will CVS change the assortment in the newly acquired Longs stores?


Pricing and Promotional StrategiesPricing and Promotional StrategiesWeekly Advertising CircularWeekly Advertising Circular

Longs employs a classic Hi-Lo strategy, of which the weekly circular and United Rewards Program play a key role• Longs distributes a weekly advertising circular, offering a wide

assortment of promotions• Longs circular strategy is more akin to a grocery format, underdeveloped PL

relative to CVS

WAG CVS RAD LDGPages 1,144 1,010 714 1,062 Blocks 12,343 10,208 10,249 14,408 Blocks per Page 11 10 14 14 PL Blocks 2,204 1,413 1,439 1,686 PL % Blocks 17.9% 13.8% 14.0% 11.7%

Source: ECRM, MVI analysis


• California is now largest market, (12% of base ~850 stores) and a disproportionate share of total sales

• Still, CVS is a national chain with a New England state of mind– Not completely comfortable in a store over 11,000 sq ft– Must now contend with a box upwards of 4X the size– Managing this from centralized HQ in RI could prove difficult

• CVS will need help from suppliers to get arms around very different markets, footprint, economic model, promotional and merchandise mix and shopper base

• Opportunities to improve sales productivity and GM% though introduction of ExtraCare, CVS’s private brands, mix shift, and focus on shrink

• How far assortment optimization? Will CVS still cut keys? Can CVS localize in a meaningful and scalable way?

• May be dilutive in near-term, but the right long-term investment– Concentrated exposure to regional economic conditions– Facing increased small box competition

CVS: Key Planning Considerations


MVI Planning Forum





““In the struggle for survival, the fittest win out at In the struggle for survival, the fittest win out at the expense of their rivals because they succeed in the expense of their rivals because they succeed in adapting themselves best to their environment.” adapting themselves best to their environment.”

– Charles Darwin

““In the struggle for survival, the fittest win out at In the struggle for survival, the fittest win out at the expense of their rivals because they succeed in the expense of their rivals because they succeed in adapting themselves best to their environment.” adapting themselves best to their environment.”

– Charles Darwin


Today’s Retail RealityToday’s Retail RealityLiving on “Borrowed” TimeLiving on “Borrowed” Time

• Turnaround of acquired stores taking longer than expected– Plan in place to address weakening operating trends, execution and credit

metrics

• Revamped management team focused on reducing costs and working capital to drive cash flow

• Heavily leveraged, but last summer’s debt refinancing (though costly) bought some time

• Liquidity “ok” for now, but secondary sources unreliable and options constrained…. Cash is King!

• Amended A/R facility, albeit reduced and repriced• Should regain compliance with New York Stock Exchange • Primary banking and vendor relationships stable,

management maintaining open lines of communication

Source: Company reports, MVI research


$16.5 $16.7 $17.2 $17.4

$26.4 $26.2 $25.7 $25.5 $25.8 $26.2 $26.5

$6.0 $6.1 $6.3 $6.3$8.8 $8.6 $8.5 $8.2 $8.4 $8.7 $8.7

3,382 3,356 3,323 3,333

5,059 4,901 4,796 4,751 4,733 4,742 4,754

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

03 04 05 06 07 08E 09E 10E 11E 12E 13ETotal Retail Sales FE Sales Stores

Can Rite Aid Shrink to Profitability?Can Rite Aid Shrink to Profitability?Growth Projections 2003-2013EGrowth Projections 2003-2013E

Source: MVI estimates; company reports

USD

Bill

ions

Reta

il St

ores

Preservation - closing underperforming locations,optimizing resources and consolidating distribution network

Preservation - closing underperforming locations,optimizing resources and consolidating distribution network

(158)(158)(105)(105) (45)(45) (18)(18) 99 1212

1,7261,726

1010(22)(22) (26)(26) (33)(33)


Rite Aid’s Top Priority is Generating Rite Aid’s Top Priority is Generating Cash Flow to Begin DeleveragingCash Flow to Begin Deleveraging

Adj. EBITDA and Margin Debt and Debt / Adj. EBITDA

$3,311.3 $3,051.4 $3,100.3

$5,985.5 $6,011.7

4.6X 4.5X 4.4X

6.2X 6.2X

-1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Total Debt (millions) Debt/Adj. EBITDA (x)

726.0 675.6 696.9

962.8 965.1

4.3%3.9% 4.0% 4.0%

3.7%

2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Adj. EBITDA (millions) Adj. EBITDA % Sales


Debt Maturity ProfileDebt Maturity Profile(Estimate effective November 29, 2008)(Estimate effective November 29, 2008)

• Effective November 29, 2008, Rite Aid reported USD6,347.7 million of debt and capital leases outstanding, excluding off balance sheet operating lease obligations with an estimated debt equivalent of approximately USD10 billion• Last summer’s debt refinancing, though costly, bought time to execute turnaround plan• Plan to refinance the revolver and tranche 1 term loan towards the end of 2009 / early 2010• Refinancing expected to be a combo new revolver, term loan and senior secured notes• No other significant debt maturities until June 2014

US

D i

n M

illio

ns



Customer Satisfaction LevelsCustomer Satisfaction LevelsMonday Ad Outs – Off ShelfMonday Ad Outs – Off Shelf

Financial Constraints Financial Constraints Compound Operational IssuesCompound Operational Issues



Cash is King!Cash is King!

Cash Flow from Operations Historical Gross Liquidity

16.3

305.4

227.5

518.4

417.2

309.1

79.4

359.9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08

$1,244$1,287

$1,267

$933

$1,486$1,494

$1,240

$978$1,084

$824 $867

$681

$889

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2005 2006 2007 2008


Monthly Same Store SalesMonthly Same Store Sales



Scale Helps, Doesn’t Fix Legacy Scale Helps, Doesn’t Fix Legacy Decisions or Structural IssuesDecisions or Structural Issues

9% to 12% Store Base

Source: Company reports, MVI Research

6% to 8.9% Store Base



605

97

2123

19

1

71

138

88

105

2768

201

248

213

117

10

296

674

583

239 147

165

81

6938

43277

8046

1047 (D.C.)

50% of Stores Located in 5 States, Lack Presence in Key Growth States50% of Stores Located in 5 States,

Lack Presence in Key Growth States

3rd Largest Chain in the US with 4,900 Stores

900 in the West

4,000 in the East

4,901 Stores in 31 4,901 Stores in 31 States and D.C. States and D.C.


Segmentation StrategySegmentation Strategy

• Benefits of Segmentation• Enables key initiatives• Focus efforts where highest

return is made• Maximize limited resources

• Store Segmentation• Consumer/demographics• Urban/suburban• High volume/low volume• Growth potential• Earnings

$200 million opportunity if Rite Aid achieves 7% EBITDA

$200 million opportunity if Rite Aid achieves 7% EBITDA

High Volume Store Segmentation Example

How many of the 4,900 stores are How many of the 4,900 stores are high volume vs. low volume? What high volume vs. low volume? What is the chain wide opportunity?is the chain wide opportunity?

Major

Competitor Rite Aid Group A

Averge store sales $7.2 million $7.2 million EBITDA margin 7.0% 5.9%


Rite Aid: Key Planning Considerations

• Living on “Borrowed” Time… Balancing Financial and Retail Realities• No longer about managing for profitability• Plans must reflect risks and rewards• Make a friend in credit / finance

• The Path Forward… Stabilization, Execution and Differentiation• On the ropes, next 3 – 12 months are pivotal• Must gain economies of scale and grow Rx scripts for survival• Focus on generics and PL will have a deflationary impact on top-line• Need to improve blocking and tackling to win her back• Variance across shopper and store base present challenges

• One Size Does Not Fit All… Focused on Unlocking the Value of Rite Aid through Segmentation• Closing stores, consolidating DCs, cutting labor and expenses and

unlocking working capital• Near-term pain necessary for long-term survival

THE WAY FORWARD: Tactical Defense and ExecutionTHE WAY FORWARD: Tactical Defense and ExecutionTHE WAY FORWARD: Tactical Defense and ExecutionTHE WAY FORWARD: Tactical Defense and Execution


Big 3: Key Planning Considerations

• Walgreens: Balancing Growth and Re-Invention• More from the core, realignment of cost, culture and capabilities• Must improve the experience to grow basket – starts with shopper• Slowing growth shifts focus from square footage growth to optimization• THE WAY FORWARD: Partnership and Capabilities

• CVS/pharmacy: Brand Extension and Adaptation• Put in a position to win, locked up share in key growth markets• Latest acquisition (Longs) will challenge the status quo • To gain share of wallet ($ and GP$) must capture share of values• Current climate will require more emphasis on traffic and value• THE WAY FORWARD: Alignment and Innovation

• Rite Aid: Stabilization, Execution and Differentiation• Living on “borrowed” time… balancing new financial / retail realities• Must gain economies of scale, Rx script growth is a must for survival• Need to improve blocking and tackling to win her back• Focused on Unlocking the Value of Rite Aid through Segmentation• THE WAY FORWARD: Tactical Defense and Execution

Thank You!Thank You!

. . . A Partner in Your Success. . . A Partner in Your Success

Corporate: MVI-Worldwide.com, Licensed: MVI-Insights.com © 2009 MVI

47

Brendan LanganDirector of Retail Insight

Global Headquarters:245 First StreetCambridge, MA 02142

[email protected]

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