Manager: Zak DemkoManager: Zak DemkoIndex Developer: Joe ThompsonIndex Developer: Joe ThompsonBusiness Researcher: Robert RichardsBusiness Researcher: Robert RichardsMeteorology Researcher: Dan RobleMeteorology Researcher: Dan RobleWriter/Editor: Andrea Michalenicz Writer/Editor: Andrea Michalenicz

Incorporation of Incorporation of MeteorologyMeteorology

• Weather plays a role in everyone’s livesWeather plays a role in everyone’s lives

Let’s Go Outdoors!Let’s Go Outdoors!

• When outside, many unaware of risks When outside, many unaware of risks they take while spending time in the they take while spending time in the sunsun

• Prolonged exposure = sunburnsProlonged exposure = sunburns– Skin cancer, wrinkles, freckled skinSkin cancer, wrinkles, freckled skin

• Proper use of sunscreen helps reduce Proper use of sunscreen helps reduce risksrisks

Truth about UV exposureTruth about UV exposure

• Cloud cover affects amount of UV exposureCloud cover affects amount of UV exposure– Thickness determines how much UV penetratesThickness determines how much UV penetrates– Forecasting cloud cover and chance for Forecasting cloud cover and chance for

precipitation can help predict daily UV levelsprecipitation can help predict daily UV levels

• Skin feels cool, it will not burn quicklySkin feels cool, it will not burn quickly– False, same amount UV reaches skinFalse, same amount UV reaches skin– Higher temperature doesn’t mean more burnsHigher temperature doesn’t mean more burns

Forecasting Clouds and Forecasting Clouds and PrecipitationPrecipitation

• Goal – provide forecasts and science Goal – provide forecasts and science to aid in generating more profitto aid in generating more profit

What Will Penetrate Today?What Will Penetrate Today?

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Environmental Administration and Environmental Protection AcencyProtection Acency– Clear skies – 100% reaches surfaceClear skies – 100% reaches surface– Scattered clouds – 89%Scattered clouds – 89%– Broken cloud conditions – 73%Broken cloud conditions – 73%– Overcast – 32% reaches surfaceOvercast – 32% reaches surface

What About Moisturizer?What About Moisturizer?

• Can forecast conditions where usage Can forecast conditions where usage likelylikely– Temperature dependentTemperature dependent– Low humidityLow humidity

Forecast Accuracy?Forecast Accuracy?

• Difficult to have long term accuracyDifficult to have long term accuracy– Butterfly EffectButterfly Effect

• Update forecasts as necessaryUpdate forecasts as necessary– Climatology often used in long range Climatology often used in long range

forecastsforecasts

• Intellovations study on temperature Intellovations study on temperature forecast accuracy in 2005forecast accuracy in 2005

ForecastWatch study on forecasting accuracy by Intellovations in 2005

Does decrease with time, but does not mean forecasts are bad

Improving models: Met Improving models: Met OfficeOffice

Why Use Indices?Why Use Indices?

• Our indices will help Our indices will help you to know where you to know where the greatest the greatest demand for your demand for your product will be.product will be.– Increases sales and Increases sales and

minimizes selling minimizes selling your product at cost.your product at cost.

– Reduces labor, Reduces labor, shipping, and shipping, and spoilage.spoilage.

Index DisplayIndex Display

• Our indices will be displayed as a Our indices will be displayed as a color coded graph.color coded graph.

• There will be 1 value assigned to There will be 1 value assigned to each state, which will give us our each state, which will give us our index.index.

• This will allow you to know which This will allow you to know which states will have the greatest need for states will have the greatest need for your products.your products.

Example DisplayExample Display

General Index InformationGeneral Index Information

• Index will be updated daily, and will Index will be updated daily, and will forecast for 10 days out.forecast for 10 days out.

• Your company has the option of a Your company has the option of a human forecast or a computer human forecast or a computer automated forecast.automated forecast.

• Your company also has the option of Your company also has the option of keeping our index exclusive with keeping our index exclusive with your company.your company.

Our IndiciesOur Indicies

• Sunny Skies SkindexSunny Skies Skindex– Index for the use of sunscreen, includes Index for the use of sunscreen, includes

our patented Fundex.our patented Fundex.

• Chaf-indexChaf-index– Index for the use of moisturizer, also Index for the use of moisturizer, also

includes our patented Fundex.includes our patented Fundex.

Sunny Skies SkindexSunny Skies Skindex

Most Important VariableMost Important Variable

• UV IndexUV Index

• A Sunny Skies A Sunny Skies Skindex value will Skindex value will be designated be designated according to the according to the statewide averagestatewide average

0-20-2 MinimalMinimal

3-43-4 LowLow

5-65-6 ModerateModerate

7-97-9 HighHigh

10+10+ Very HighVery High

Determining Statewide UV Determining Statewide UV AverageAverage

• Each state will receive a daily UV Each state will receive a daily UV Index valueIndex value

• The daily value will be determined by The daily value will be determined by three cities that are chosen in each three cities that are chosen in each state based on geographic location state based on geographic location

ExampleExample

Another ExampleAnother Example

How to get Index ValueHow to get Index Value

• The 10 daily UV Index values for The 10 daily UV Index values for each state will then be averaged to each state will then be averaged to get an overall average UV Index for get an overall average UV Index for the statethe state

• A corresponding value (from 1-100) A corresponding value (from 1-100) will then be given based on our will then be given based on our Sunny Skies SkindexSunny Skies Skindex

Outdoor FactorOutdoor Factor

• People want to People want to play! So what play! So what weather is ideal for weather is ideal for being outdoors being outdoors (and needing (and needing sunscreen)?sunscreen)?

FundexFundex

• We here at A.N.A.L have developed We here at A.N.A.L have developed our own unique Fundex, that consists our own unique Fundex, that consists of weather variables to measure the of weather variables to measure the likelihood people will be outdoorslikelihood people will be outdoors

• These variables consist of These variables consist of Temperature, Season, and Temperature, Season, and Probability of Precipitation (POPs) Probability of Precipitation (POPs)

TemperatureTemperature

• The temperature is The temperature is key to determining key to determining whether people will whether people will be active outdoors be active outdoors

• Our Fundex Our Fundex accounts for accounts for temperatures that temperatures that are too high, too are too high, too low, or just right low, or just right

What About the Season?What About the Season?

• The time of year The time of year could play a could play a difference in difference in outdoor activityoutdoor activity

• Our Index accounts Our Index accounts for this in the for this in the scaling of scaling of temperature (also temperature (also accounts for accounts for geography)geography)

Probability of PrecipitationProbability of Precipitation

• Have to be careful Have to be careful with this variablewith this variable

• Can still help Can still help determine optimal determine optimal outdoor weatheroutdoor weather

Chafin-dexChafin-dex

What variables are What variables are important?important?

• Relative humidity Relative humidity (RH)(RH)

• TemperatureTemperature

• Probability of Probability of precipitation precipitation (POPs- very (POPs- very minimal)minimal)

Implications of Relative Implications of Relative HumidityHumidity

• Relative humidity can vary Relative humidity can vary significantly from the morning to significantly from the morning to evening hours on a daily basisevening hours on a daily basis

• Can also vary weekly as large storm Can also vary weekly as large storm systems enter and exit a region.systems enter and exit a region.

• How do we account for this?How do we account for this?

Relative HumidityRelative Humidity

• Take values of relative humidity Take values of relative humidity predicted every three hours and predicted every three hours and average them over a single day for average them over a single day for each individual city.each individual city.

• Each city is assigned a value based Each city is assigned a value based on averageon average

Relative HumidityRelative Humidity

• A statewide average is determined A statewide average is determined by averaging the three city values.by averaging the three city values.

• The average of the ten daily The average of the ten daily averages will be taken to determine averages will be taken to determine a state average for the ten day a state average for the ten day periodperiod

TemperatureTemperature

• Will people go Will people go outdoors?outdoors?– Pools, oceans, sun Pools, oceans, sun

exposureexposure

• Will people be Will people be using air using air conditioners or conditioners or furnaces?furnaces?

TemperatureTemperature

• Seasons/Time of yearSeasons/Time of year– Lower temps = lower dew pointsLower temps = lower dew points– Even if RH is high, dew points can dry Even if RH is high, dew points can dry

out thermal layer around the skinout thermal layer around the skin

• Prolonged exposure to the sunProlonged exposure to the sun

Calculating a ValueCalculating a Value

• Temperature is included as most of the Temperature is included as most of the FundexFundex

• There are thresholds that take into account There are thresholds that take into account warm and cold factors that lead to dry skinwarm and cold factors that lead to dry skin

• For each city, the assigned threshold values For each city, the assigned threshold values will be averaged, resulting in a statewide will be averaged, resulting in a statewide average.average.

• Ten daily averages will be taken to receive Ten daily averages will be taken to receive a statewide averagea statewide average

Probability of Precipitation Probability of Precipitation (POPs)(POPs)

• Used for a sense of weather is good Used for a sense of weather is good enough for sunbathing or swimmingenough for sunbathing or swimming

• POP will be determined for each of POP will be determined for each of the three cities and assigned a value.the three cities and assigned a value.

• The three cities values will be used to The three cities values will be used to determine a statewide valuedetermine a statewide value

• Statewide value averaged over ten Statewide value averaged over ten days and weighted accordinglydays and weighted accordingly

• Benefits to be gained through Benefits to be gained through usage of our indices.usage of our indices.

• Various methods and statistics Various methods and statistics will be discussed with the goal of will be discussed with the goal of helping the company in question helping the company in question getting monetary gain.getting monetary gain.

• Now let us dive right into the Now let us dive right into the reasons you will want our product!reasons you will want our product!

• Total revenue brought in for the company Total revenue brought in for the company in PA/Nationally is $470,400/$23,520,000. in PA/Nationally is $470,400/$23,520,000. (Including Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors)(Including Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors)

• Total revenue brought in for the company Total revenue brought in for the company in PA/Nationally is $480,000/$24,000,000.in PA/Nationally is $480,000/$24,000,000.

(Excluding Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors)(Excluding Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors)

00

$470,400

0

$480,000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

PA Total Revenue Before Including Spoilage/ Sale Pricing Factors and After Excluding Spoilage/ Sale

Pricing Factors

Figure 1/Figure 2: Total revenue once spoilage and sale pricing factors are eliminated.

00

$23,520,000

0

$24,000,000

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

National Total Revenue Before Including Spoilage/ Sale Pricing Factors and After Excluding

Spoilage/ Sale Pricing Factors

• Total revenue brought in for the company in Total revenue brought in for the company in PA/Nationally is $516,000/$25,800,000.PA/Nationally is $516,000/$25,800,000.

(Excluding Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors And Cutting (Excluding Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors And Cutting Labor By 10%)Labor By 10%)

00

$480,000

0

$516,000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

PA Total Revenue Before Excluding Spilage/ Sale Pricing Factors and After Excluding Spoilage/ Sale

Pricing Factors and Cutting Labor By 10%

Figure 3: Projected revenue with 10% cut on labor in addition to excluded spoilage and sale pricing.

00

$24,000,000

0

$25,800,000

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

National Total Revenue Before Excluding Spoilage/ Sale Pricing Factors and After Excluding Spoilage/ Sale Pricing Factors and Cutting Labor

By 10%

• Noevir's Skin Care PhilosophyNoevir's Skin Care Philosophy:: 1. 1. Using a more natural approach in product Using a more natural approach in product

manufacturing can save a company up to 10% on manufacturing can save a company up to 10% on labor and shipping costs.labor and shipping costs.

2. 2. The more natural approach is also more The more natural approach is also more atmosphere-friendly with regard to Global atmosphere-friendly with regard to Global Warming. The meaning here is you, the Warming. The meaning here is you, the company, company, save money on regulatory laws.save money on regulatory laws.

• Neutrogena’s Environmental, Health, and Safety (EHS) Neutrogena’s Environmental, Health, and Safety (EHS) standardsstandards: :

1.1. Methods allow any business to achieve efficiency Methods allow any business to achieve efficiency and more and more profit from manufactured products. profit from manufactured products.

2.2. Safer work conditions and minimizing environmental Safer work conditions and minimizing environmental impact impact increases social responsibility. The increases social responsibility. The improvements relate a improvements relate a more suitable fit to our index’s more suitable fit to our index’s many variables.many variables.

3.3. All of this in the hope of creating a more productive All of this in the hope of creating a more productive working working environment on all ends to meet the environment on all ends to meet the demands and come out demands and come out on top. Our primary goal is to on top. Our primary goal is to make you go over the top and make you go over the top and with our index you will!with our index you will!

• Pangea Organics/L’Oreal’s Cost Effective ApproachesPangea Organics/L’Oreal’s Cost Effective Approaches::1.1. L’Oreal’s method involves researching for the L’Oreal’s method involves researching for the best best and most cost effective products yearly. L’Oreal and most cost effective products yearly. L’Oreal

does this by being in the top 100 in the country does this by being in the top 100 in the country for for research by companies, and advertising research by companies, and advertising products products using a seasonal approach to attract using a seasonal approach to attract customers.customers.2.2. Pangea Organics is known for the volume of Pangea Organics is known for the volume of product product manufacturing they do. Pangea Organics manufacturing they do. Pangea Organics determines what product is selling best then determines what product is selling best then implements the product into more cost effective implements the product into more cost effective advertising and development campaigns to better advertising and development campaigns to better there profit.there profit.

• Here are a few major positions in a company that can Here are a few major positions in a company that can benefit from our indexbenefit from our index::

1. Sales Engineers: Sells business goods or services, the 1. Sales Engineers: Sells business goods or services, the selling of selling of which requires a technical background.which requires a technical background.2. Sales Managers: Direct the distribution of a product or 2. Sales Managers: Direct the distribution of a product or service to service to the customer by establishing sales territories, the customer by establishing sales territories, quotas, and quotas, and goals.goals.3. Sales and Related Workers: Labor needed to produce the 3. Sales and Related Workers: Labor needed to produce the product product at hand with an efficient and proper at hand with an efficient and proper understanding of understanding of environmental and advertising environmental and advertising criteria.criteria.

• Overall, the business strategies and methods Overall, the business strategies and methods presented before you today show the effect that presented before you today show the effect that our index will have on your business.our index will have on your business.

• Correct strategies lead to profit increase through Correct strategies lead to profit increase through a decrease in spoilage, sale pricing, and cutting a decrease in spoilage, sale pricing, and cutting labor efficiently.labor efficiently.

• The information presented to you here today will The information presented to you here today will push any company to the top by implementing push any company to the top by implementing these cost effective strategies with the use of our these cost effective strategies with the use of our index.index.

Contract InformationContract Information

• Payment to A.N.A.L. Payment to A.N.A.L. Consultants based Consultants based on how much money on how much money your company saves your company saves per month.per month.– Choices within Choices within

payment, depending payment, depending on variables such as on variables such as exclusiveness and exclusiveness and forecasting skillforecasting skill

Payment OptionsPayment Options

• For an automated forecast that is not For an automated forecast that is not exclusive to your company, 5% of exclusive to your company, 5% of your total saved income will be paid your total saved income will be paid to A.N.A.L. Consultants.to A.N.A.L. Consultants.

• For an automated forecast that is For an automated forecast that is exclusive to you’re your company, exclusive to you’re your company, 10% of your total saved income will 10% of your total saved income will be paid to A.N.A.L. Consultants.be paid to A.N.A.L. Consultants.

Payment Options Con’tPayment Options Con’t

• For a human forecast that is not For a human forecast that is not exclusive to your company, 15% of exclusive to your company, 15% of your total saved income will be paid your total saved income will be paid to A.N.A.L. Consultants.to A.N.A.L. Consultants.

• For a human forecast that is For a human forecast that is exclusive to your company, 20% of exclusive to your company, 20% of your total saved income will be paid your total saved income will be paid to A.N.A.L. Consultants.to A.N.A.L. Consultants.

Contract DurationContract Duration

• Contract will be for Contract will be for a duration of 3 a duration of 3 years.years.

• There is a mutual There is a mutual extension option for extension option for up to 2 years, which up to 2 years, which will have to be will have to be decided upon decided upon before the original before the original contract expires.contract expires.