managing a sustainable urbanization · nigeria angola zambia 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 ......

Managing a Sustainable Urbanization

Professor Zou Ji

Program of Energy and Climate Economics (PECE)Renmin University of China

China Country DirectorWorld Resources Institute

Outline

• The trends of urbanization

• Urbanization in China: special feature• Challenges and opportunities in urbanization

• Sustainability: the right direction of urbanization

• Making blueprints for lower carbon cities in China: cases in Qingdao City and Guiyang City

• Recommendations

Shar e of Ur ban Popul at i on i n t he Tot al Wor l d Popul at i on

314

30

5065

010203040506070

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050Year

%

Source: Economist, 2007

Sustainable Mobility

Urban Population by Region

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York, 2010

If all production and consumption based emissions are included urban residents likely account for more than

80% of the world’s GHG emissions

Business as usual projections suggest that today’s 800mvehicles will increase to between 2-3bn by 2050.

Cities have a large footprint...

A lot of cities, e.g., amongthe northern cities in China,face water stress in termsof both quantity and quality

Sustainable Mobility

Possible Trajectories

Outline





• Recommendations

Changes in the Rural-Urban Ratio in China

Forecast of Chinese Urbanization Ratio

*2010 China Statistical Yearbook: PECE Projection Model

Numbers of Cities (with scale larger than a million population)

32%45%14%7%1%1%Percentage

213300904767663Number2000

6%24%41%26%1%2%Percentage

39157268170912655Number2008

<0.2million

0.2-0.5million

0.5-1million

1-3Million

3-5Million

>5Million

Total

City Sizes

Source: 1. China Urban Construction Statistical yearbook 2009;2. The 4th and 5th nationwide population census

Top Ten City Regions

The Exploding Middle Class

The US and Canada together have fewer than

70

6.5% of the population live in the world’s ten

largest city regions

These regions account for 45% of all economic activity

China has about 90 cities with a middle class population of 250,000 or more.

By 2020 that number will increase to 400. .

The roles of large cities in the world and in

China: population and economics

Source: WRI, 2011

Major feature of urbanization in China: a matter of development stage

• Dual structure: rural population accounts for around 50% of the whole population– With lower income, inadequate social security,

and lower level of human development– Unsafe drinking water and poor supply of

energy, housing, and urban infrastructure service

• Accompanying the process of industrialization: leading manufacture dominance in most municipal economies

Outline





• Recommendations

Challenges• Shortage of financial resources for upgrading

and/or constructing urban infrastructure in the context of– Sovereignty debt crisis and recession in developed

economies, incl. EU– Inflation, local debt pressure in China

• Path dependency and lock-in effects of high carbon growth pathways in developing countries

• Market barriers and failure in innovation, demonstration and diffusion of clean technologies

Challenges (Cont’d)

• Social equity and imbalance derived from the gap between commercial interest/market mechanism and the value of livability and human oriented urban development

• Build up capacity for a good governance– The public and major stakeholders

– Government, parliaments, legal system, and political organizations

Strategic opportunities

• Searching new engines for stepping out from the recession in EU economy– upgrading urban infrastructure and innovation

of clean/low carbon technology

• Green jobs, green economies

• Restructuring Chinese economy and shifting to sustainable pathways

Outline





• Recommendations

Understanding sustainability

The World Commission Report defines sustainable development to be

‘... development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs’

(World Commission, 1987: 43).

Understanding sustainability (cont’d)

The concept of ‘needs’, in particular the essential needs of the world’s poor, to which overriding priority should be given for equity; and

The idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organization on the environment’s ability to meet present and future needs.

Model and PathwaysUSA

Canada

Australia

Netherlands

JapanGermany

UKItaly

France

Egypt

China

IndiaIndonesia

Brazil

South Africa

PakistanNigeriaAngola

Zambia0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Per capita emissions(tCO2e)

HDI

？？？？

CO2 Emission Scenario

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

5,5

9,5

16,2

7,9

9,2

15,3

8,8

13,9

8,2

11,4

6,8

7,6

5,6

-28%

-66%

Gt CO2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18GT CO2

203020202005Year

20502040

Renewable power

biofuel

nuclear efficiency

CCS

Fossil fuel switching

EA5.5

7.98.8

8.2

5.6

11.4

13.9

15.316.2

Reference

Technological roadmap: contribution to emission reduction by different type of technologies

Advanced air conditioningLarge Hydro

Residual heat and �pressure recoveryUSC/SC

IGCC

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

300

800

100

1,000

-100

1,200

New building envelopeLarge scale aluminaGeothermal

Large scale ammonia �by natural gas

Itmk3 �Iron-making

USC+CCSSmelting �Reduction

4th gen nuclear

IGCC+CCSAdvanced EAF

Advanced gasoline vehiclesOff-shore wind

Large scale ammonia �by coal

Advanced NSP

Injecting Waste Plastics

High-power electronic devices2nd gen Bio

Small Hydro

95

CMCOn-shore wind (strong)

Eco-CementNatural gas power

0

Hybrid M&L �sized vehicle

Fuel cell �vehicle

Fuel cellPure electric �vehicle

Smart gridZero-emisison �building

PV

CSP

Large scale �ethyleneCCS in the industry

100 105

1,100

High-eff electronic �devices

Waste heat �powerCCPP

LED

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Efficient grindingAdvanced diesel vehicles

CDQCHP and BCHP

On-shore wind �(weak wind)Other renewable3rd gen nuclear

500

400

900

200

600

700

40 45 50

Ground Heat Pump

Hybrid Electric �LDVs

Mitigation cost ($US, 2005

price)

Mitigation potential , 10^8 t CO2

MACs in 2050 (EA scenario)

Source: PECE, 2010

Outline





• Recommendations

Addressing Diversity and Representability

Diversified Starting Points of Provinces and Cities in China: Towards Different Low Carbon Pathways

Understanding Low Carbon City

• Continuous urbanization and industrialization in the coming decades

• Increasing income (GDP)• Livable: improving living standard and life quality

(Human Development Index) • Higher efficiency: Total Factor Productivity – less

reliance on inputs of labor, energy & resources, and emission

• Comparative indicator: intensity of energy and fossil fuel - related CO2

Blueprint for Low Carbon City1. Analysis of socioeconomic development2. Energy use and inventory of CO2 at city level

3. Scenario of socioeconomic development, energy use, and CO2 emission

4. Setting up and allocating emission control target: from municipality to sectors

5. Identification of prioritized sectors, companies, technologies and proposed investment projects

6. Spatial optimization (transport, land use, …)

7. Financial mechanism

Sector-wide CO2 Emission in Qingdao2005 and 2009

Outline

• The trends of urbanization• Urbanization in China: special feature

• Challenges and opportunities in urbanization


• Recommendations

Communication and studies

• More thematic and systematic dialogues, communication, and joint studies cum trainings on urbanization

• Establish EU-China joint initiatives on sustainable urbanization

Joint Pilots and demonstration

• integrative master plan• comprehensive management• sustainable urban transport• Sustainable building• Ancillary environmental quality for low carbon

urbanization• Positive interaction between urban and rural

development• Improvement of the weaker groups’ welfare in

education and social security• optimization of spatial planning: more mix of

places for work and residence

Searching for broader range of opportunities

• Green investment and trade• Policy dialogues and coordination• Technology transfer and diffusion

Thank you for your attention!

[email protected]@wri.org

managing a sustainable urbanization · nigeria angola zambia 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 ......

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