Managing Information to Support Group Decision-

MakingSandy Schuman

University at AlbanyAlbany, New York

sschuman@exedes.comsschuman.blogspot.com

You will learn how to help groups to address complicated issues by systematically integrating objective facts and data as well as subjective judgements and values.

Decision models (e.g. multiattribute utility models) provide the analytical framework. Help participants develop the model, study it's implications, make alternative assumptions, then incorporate new ideas to build consensus.

Systems thinking examines the context in which a problem occurs and informs decision making. It alerts decision makers to unintended consequences that can result from the interconnections and long-term effects of their decisions.

Elevator Pop QuizWeren't you out of the IAF Conference? What did you learn?a) Mutiattribute utility (MAU) models are

useful for evaluating alternatives and building agreement on the best choice given the available information.

b) Creating multiple purpose statements, word & arrow diagrams, and graphs of change over time (which may identify information needs) are useful ways to develop an understanding of complex situations.

Explore the

Problem

Generate Alternatives

Evaluate and

Choose

Implement the

Decisions

Maintain, Monitor,

and Review

Intelligence

Design

Choice

Search

Solve

Select

Problem-Solving Process

Make Our Thinking Explicit• Alternatives• Criteria• Fact • Value• Decomposition• Aggregation

• Name• Purpose• Stakeholders• Graph over time• Words & Arrows

– Cause & Effect– Influence

Your Understanding

Your Communication to Others

• Evaluation and selection– Multiattribute Utility Analysis

• Exploring a problem/ situation and building an understanding of it– Soft Systems Methodology– Systems thinking/ word & arrow

diagrams

Multiattribute Utility Analysis

1. Identify the goals and corresponding attributes

2. Identify alternative decisions or courses of action

3. Describe the performance of each alternative on each attribute

4. Rate the performance of each alternative on each attribute

5. Assign weights to reflect the relative importance of attributes and the goals they represent

6. Compute overall score for each alternative7. Reiterate to test assumptions, identify

strengths and weaknesses of alternatives, develop consensus

• Which problem to solve

• How to solve the problem

• Design a solution

• What to learn about the organization

• What is the charge

• Monitor results

• What is the problem

• Why solve the problem

• Understand the situation

• How to learn about the organization

• What should be the charge

• Integrate information

When Who How What Why

CATWOE

Word & ArrowDiagrams

Graphs of ChangeOver Time

PurposeStatements

Word and Arrow Diagrams*

* aka "cause and effect," "causal loop," or "influence" diagrams

Faucet Positio

n

Current

Water Level

Water Flow

Perceived Gap

Desired

Water Level

Current

Position

Current Level

Rate/ Flow

Perceived Gap

Desired Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

2

4

6

8

10

12

Water Flow Over Time

Time

Flo

w i

n l

iter

s p

er m

inu

te

Word and Arrow Diagrams

Faucet Positio

n

Current

Water Temp

Hot/ColdMix

Perceived Gap

Desired Water

Temperature

Purpose: To reach the desired water temperature in the least amount of time by adjusting the water faucets so that the water is at a safe and comfortable temperature and resources are conserved.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Water Temperature Over Time

Time

Tem

per

atu

re

• Core purpose expressed as a transformation

• Input entity Transformation process Output entity

• A system to do X by doing Y in order to achieve Z.

Purpose Statementaka: Naming the Systemaka: Root Definition

Example Purpose Statements

• An Boiler Efficiency and Maintenance (BEAM) program to reduce energy consumption by training boiler operators in order to reduce our reliance on imported oil.

• A Child Protective system that responds quickly to urgent child-abuse hot-line calls by specifying the signals that indicate an immediate threat to the child in order to safeguard children at risk.

Purpose Statement

From the perspective of (Who), the purpose of the (Name) system is to do X (What/ Outcome) by doing Y (How/ Action) in order to achieve Z (Why/ Transformation).

aka: Naming the Systemaka: Root Definition

CATWOE• C Customers

• A Actors• T Transformation

process• W Worldview

• O Owner(s)• E Environmental

constraints

The victims or beneficiaries of T

Those who would do T

The conversion of input to output

The worldview which makes this T meaningful in context

Those who could stop T

Elements outside the system which it takes as given

Stakeholders are those who:

• Have the power to make a decision

• Have the power to block a decision

• Are affected by a decision• Have information or expertise

SSM Model Building• Using verbs in the imperative (“obtain

material X”) write down activities necessary to carry out the Transformation described in the root definition. Aim for 7 2 activities.

• Identify the activities that could be done at once (they are not dependent on other activities happening first).

• Write these out on a horizontal line, then those that are dependent on these first activities on a line below. Continue in this fashion until all activities are accounted for. Indicate the dependencies with arrows.

• Redraw to avoid overlapping arrows where possible. Add monitoring and control.

Adapted from Peter Checkland, Soft Systems Methodology: A 30-Year Retrospective (1999) Figure A6, p. A26. In Peter Checkland and Jim Scholes (1999) Soft Systems Methodology in Action, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester

Social reality is the ever-changing outcome of the social process in which human beings, the product of their genetic inheritance and previous experiences, continually negotiate and re-negotiate with others their perceptions and interpretations of the world outside themselves.–Peter Checkland

To know the world, one must construct it.–Giovanni Battista Vico

• If you truly want to understand something, try to change it. – Kurt Lewin– If you truly want to change something,

try to understand it!• Exercise doubt.

– Wonder if you have the right purpose.– Wonder if you have the right people. – Wonder if you have the right method. – Proceed with an open mind.