managing natural disasters - dr. naveed...

Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 1


Naveed Anwar, Ph.D. Executive Director, AIT Solutions

Disaster Risk ReductionIncreasing Disaster Resilience through focus on role of engineers

Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 3 3

Disaster Risk Reduction(DRR)


Disaster

• a sudden event, such as an accident or a natural catastrophe, that causes great damage or loss of life.

• an event or fact that has unfortunate consequences.

• A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.


There is no such thing as a

'natural' disaster, only natural hazards.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones,

through an ethic of prevention. Disasters often follow natural hazards.

(UNISDR)


Disasters due to Natural Hazards


Disaster Hazard ExposureVulnerability

Risk


Climate

Change

Environmental

Sustainability

Population

Growth

Urbanization and Un-

planned

development

Inappropriate

Built

Environment

Lack of Resources

for Communities

Lack of post-event management and recovery, and re-bound capacity

Natural

Phenomena

Disaster Hazard Exposure Vulnerability

Increased Consequences


Disaster Risk

• The potential disaster losses, in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified future time period.

• A probability or threat of damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action.

Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar

Natural Hazards and their Effects


• Hazard

• A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health

impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and

services, social and economic disruption, or

environmental damage.

• Hydrometeorological hazard

• Process or phenomenon of atmospheric, hydrological or oceanographic nature that may cause loss of life, injury or

other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods

and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.


Typical Natural Hazards

14


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/which-natural-disasters-hit-most-frequently/


Earthquakes


Floods


Landslides


Wind Storms and Related


Probability and Intensity of Hazards

• The chance of something happening (or not happening)

• For natural hazards, measured in “return period”

• Frequent events: 10% chance of happening in 50 years

• Rare Events: 2% Chance of happening in 2500 years

• Frequent events are of normally smaller intensity

• Rare events are often high intensity


Hazard Assessment

• when and where hazardous processes have occurred in the past.

• the severity of the physical effects of past hazardous processes (magnitude).

• the frequency of occurrence of hazardous processes.

• the likely effects of a process of a given magnitude if it were to occur now.

• and, making all this information available in a form useful to planners and public officials responsible for making decisions in event of a disaster.


Vulnerability and Exposure

22

What makes a Hazard turn to a Disaster


Vulnerability

• The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard.

• Weaknesses in the system, community infrastructure


Exposure

• Elements exposed to hazard, that have the potential be damaged

• People, property, systems,


Risk Reduction

26

What can we do to reduce the effects of a hazard


Disaster Resilience

• ‘the ability of countries, communities and households to manage change, by maintaining or transforming living standards in the face of shocks or stresses – such as earthquakes, drought or violent conflict – without compromising their long-term prospects’. DFID (2011a, 6)

• ‘the capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure’. Hyogo Framework of Action (UNISDR,

2005b, 4):

http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disaster-resilience/concepts/what-is-disaster-resilience/#dfid-2011a

http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disaster-resilience/concepts/what-is-disaster-resilience/#unisdr-2005b


Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

• aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones, through an ethic of prevention. Disasters often follow natural hazards. Adisaster's severity depends on how much impact a hazard has on society and the environment.

• The concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyse and manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards, lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improved preparedness for adverse events.


Disaster Risk Management (DRM)

• DRM• The systematic process of using administrative directives,

organizations, and operational skills and capacities to implement strategies, policies and improved coping capacities in order to lessen the adverse impacts of hazards and the possibility of disaster

• DRR and DRM• The policy objective of anticipating and reducing risk is called

disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although often used interchangeably with DRR, disaster risk management (DRM) can be thought of as the implementation of DRR, since it describes the actions that aim to achieve the objective of reducing risk.


• Mitigation

• The lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and related

disasters.

• Residual risk

• The risk that remains in unmanaged form, even when effective disaster

risk reduction measures are in place, and for which emergency response

and recovery capacities must be maintained.

• Resilience

• The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist,

absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a

timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and

restoration of its essential basic structures and functions.


Structural and non-structural measures

• Structural measures:

• Any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards, or application of engineering

techniques to achieve hazard-resistance and resilience in

structures or systems;

• Non-structural measures:

• Any measure not involving physical construction that uses

knowledge, practice or agreement to reduce risks and impacts, in particular through policies and laws, public

awareness raising, training and education.


How do we reduce risk?

•The outright avoidance of adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters (often less costly than disaster relief and response). For instance, relocating exposed people and assets away from a hazard area.Prevention

•The lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters. For instance, constructing flood defences, planting trees to stabilize slopes and implementing strict land use and building construction codes.Mitigation

•The process of formally or informally shifting the financial consequences of particular risks from one party to another whereby a household, community, enterprise or state authority will obtain resources from the other party after a disaster occurs, in exchange for ongoing or compensatory social or financial benefits provided to that other party. For instance, insurance.

Transfer

•The knowledge and capacities of governments, professional response and recovery organisations, communities and individuals to effectively anticipate, respond to, and recover from the impacts of likely, imminent or current hazard events or conditions. For instance, installing early warning systems, identifying evacuation routes and preparing emergency supplies.

Preparedness


Established in 1999 as a dedicated secretariat to facilitate the implementation of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR).It is mandated by the United Nations General Assembly resolution (56/195), to serve as the focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of disaster reduction and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations system and regional organizations and activities in socio‐economic and humanitarian fields. It is an organisational unit of the UN Secretariat and is led by the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG).

http://www.unisdr.org/who-we-are/mandate


DR, Built Environment and Structural Engineering

Role of Structural Design in Disaster Resilience

34


The Place of Structural Eningeering

• Engineering

• Civil Engineering

• Structural Engineering

• Civil-Structural Engineering

• Architectural Structural Engineering

35


The Role of Structural Engineers

• To help in the creation of the safe built environment

• Nothing can function, if structural engineers do not do their job well

• Every other professional “Depends” on the role of structural engineers

36


All systems absolutely need Structures

• Transportation systems

• Telecommunication systems

• Electricity and power systems

• Water supply, waste water systems

• Irrigation and agricultural systems

• Mining, oil, gas, offshore platforms

• Industrial plants, piping and process

• Housing, commercial Businesses

• Public Buildings

37


38


39


40


41


42


43


44


45


46


47


48


49


Building/Structural System

Materials

Products

Components

System

Manufacturing

Fabrication, Forming

Assembly

Construction

ErectionAssembly

Integration

DR needs to be considered at various levels and contexts


Built

Environment

Vulnerability to

Disasters

Environmental

Impact

Climate Change

(CC)

Increased

Hazard

Disaster Consequences

Environmental

Sustainability

(ES)

Disaster

Resilience

(DR)

Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 52Increasing Resistance to Hazards Using Enhanced Structural Design and Disaster Resistant Materials by Dr. Naveed Anwar

DR and ES – Need for Integration

Disaster Resilience

• Wind, Storms, Hurricanes

• Earthquakes

• Landslides

• Floods

• Volcanos

• Snow, Fire, Wild Fire

• ---

Environmental Sustainability

• Water Conservation

• Energy Conservation

• Soil Conservation

• Resources Conservation

• Pollution

• ----

• (Reduce, Recycle, Reuse, Renew, …)

52


Role of Structural Design in DR

• The primary purpose of structural design is to ensure safety

• The secondary purposes are to ensure serviceability and durability

• Deflections, vibrations

• Complete the service life

• Water resistance

• All combined into ensure “Performance”


Progression of Structural Design Approaches

• Code Based Design (CBD)

• Performance Based Design (PBD)

• Risk Based Design (RBD)

• Consequence Based Engineering (CBE)


Structural Response and DR

Structural Displacement

Load

ing

Seve

rity

Resta

urant

Resta

urant

Resta

urant

Ha

zard

Vulnerability

Consequenc

es


Restaurant Restaurant

Resta

uran

t

Operational (O) Immediate Occupancy (IO) Life Safety (LS) Collapse Prevention (CP)

0 % Damage or Loss 99 %

Ref: FEMA 451 B

CasualtiesLowest Highest

Rehab Cost to Restore after eventLowest Highest

Build or Retrofit Cost to Minimize ConsequencesHighest Lowest

Downtime for RehabLowest Highest


Designing for Land Slide Hazard

57


Designing for Land Slide Hazard


Planning for Flood Risk


Ensuring DR and Durability

• Lab testing• Testing of materials

• Testing of components

• Testing of assemblies

• Full Scale testing

• Numerical modeling and simulations• Advanced modeling

• Model calibration and verification

• Application to real projects


DR Verification and Application

Calibration of Wall Connection for Finite Element

Analysis

Full 3D Finite Element Modeling of Typical House

Evaluate the Seismic Performance Acceptance

Experimental Study of Bearing wall Panel and Wall

Connections.


Calibration Process

Test Model FE Model

Connection to test


Localization Effects on DR

FoundationsResponse Spectrum


Innovative Housing Technology

Building Cleaner, Greener, Safer and Cost effective Housing

communities

HABITECH SOLUTION

Green & Sustainable

Simple Technique

Cost Effective

Long Term Durability

Disaster Resilient

Local Resources


HABITECH SOLUTION

Green & Sustainable

Simple Technique

Cost Effective

Long Term Durability

Disaster Resilient

Local Resources

Disaster Resilience

• Durability - High

• Earthquakes - High

• Hurricanes – Very High

• Floods - High• Water resistant

• Fire - High


Unit Tests


Full Wall Tests - Static


Wall Test - Cyclic


Numerical Simulations

Maximum vertical stress at the Bottom brick layer

1 story house

•0.065 MPa at gravity load•0.1 MPa with lateral load

2 story house

•0.117 MPa at gravity load•0.22 MPa with lateral load

Compressive strength of the wall panel= 2.71 MPa

managing natural disasters - dr. naveed...

Documents