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Managing Risk for Superior Returns Andrew P. Swiger Senior Vice President

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Page 1: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Managing Risk for Superior Returns

Andrew P. SwigerSenior Vice President

Page 2: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Cautionary Statement

Forward-Looking Statements. Statements of future events or conditions in this presentation or the subsequent discussion period are forward-looking statements. Actual future results, including demand growth and mix; project plans, costs, capacities, and schedules; earnings and shareholder returns; productivity gains and cost efficiencies; the effectiveness of risk management systems; and the outcome of research programs could differ materially due to a number of factors. These include changes in long-term oil or gas prices or other market conditions affecting the oil and gas industries; our ability to integrate XTO’s operations effectively; the effectiveness of risk assessment and training programs; changes in law or government regulation; the occurrence of technical difficulties and human errors; the outcome of commercial negotiations; unforeseen technological developments; actions taken by partners and co-venturers; and other factors discussed here and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our Web site at exxonmobil.com. Statements in this presentation are based on management’s good faith belief at the time. We assume no duty to update these statements as of any future date.

Frequently Used Terms. References to “resources,” the “resource base,” “recoverable”volumes, and similar terms include quantities of discovered oil and gas that are not yet classified as proved reserves but that are expected to be ultimately recovered in the future. See the "Frequently Used Terms" posted on the Investors section of our Web site for more information concerning these and other terms used in this presentation. The Financial and Operating Review on our Web site also shows ExxonMobil's net interest in specific projects.

Page 3: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

The Energy Challenge

The scale of the challenge is enormous

Requires an integrated set of solutions

Demands a commitment to innovation and technology

Calls for unprecedented levels of investment

Requires sound, stable government policies

How to meet the world’s growing energy needs safely while minimizing the impact on the environment

Page 4: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Growing Demand for Energy

Global energy demand in 2030 is expected to be 35% higher than 2005

0

100

200

300

1980 2005 2030

MBDOE

Gas

Oil

Wind, Solar & BiofuelsBiomass, Hydro & Geothermal

Nuclear

Coal

Source: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, ExxonMobil, December 2009

Page 5: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Global Liquids Supply and Demand

Global liquids demand in 2030 is expected to be 24% higher than 2005

0

30

60

90

120

1980 2005 2030

Canadian Oil Sands

Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate

Biofuels

Other Petroleum

Source: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, ExxonMobil, December 2009

~27 MBDOE

~37 MBDOE

MBDOE

OPECCrude

Page 6: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Regional Gas Supply and Demand

0

30

60

90

120

2000 2015 2030

Conventional

Unconventional

North America

BCFD

0

30

60

90

120

2000 2015 2030

Asia Pacific

BCFD

Natural gas is expected to be the fastest-growing major fuel source

0

30

60

90

120

2000 2015 2030

Pipeline

Europe

BCFD

LNG

Imports

Page 7: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

ExxonMobil

Proven business model

Disciplined and embedded approach to risk management

Asset quality and diversity

Superior financial strength and flexibility

Unwavering commitment to technology leadership

ExxonMobil is well positioned to meet the energy challenge

Page 8: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Proven Business Model

Our business model is designed to capture strong margins in the up-cycle and outperform the competition and market in the down cycle

Page 9: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Uncertainty and Risk

Uncertainty: a state of having limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state or the future outcome.

Risk: a state of uncertainty where some possible outcomes have an undesired effect or significant loss.

We evaluate a broad range of uncertainties to identify and minimize associated risk factors

Page 10: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Industry Risks

Safety, security, health and environment

Financial

Geopolitical

Technical

The oil and gas industry faces multiple uncertainties and risks

Page 11: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Risks Can Be Managed - But Not Eliminated

Prevention relies upon disciplined processes, procedures and training

Response capability requires technology and effective planning / coordination

Prevention

Response

Focus on prevention with effective response in the event it is needed

Page 12: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Risk Management Approach

Capable, committed workforce with clear accountability

Well developed and clearly defined policies and procedures

High standards of design to reduce or eliminate risk

Rigorously applied management systems

Employee and contractor training

Systematic approach to performance metrics and continuous improvement

ExxonMobil has established common worldwide expectations for addressing risks inherent in our business

Page 13: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Operations Integrity Management System (OIMS)

A required framework of 11 elements with particular emphasis on design, construction and operations

Driver Evaluation

Page 14: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Performance Improvement

OIMS is the foundation of our strong and improving safety, security, health, and environmental performance

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09

Corporate Lost Time Incident Rate

U.S. petroleum industrycontractor benchmark*

U.S. petroleum industryemployee benchmark*

EmployeeContractor

Incidents per 200K hours

0

2

4

6

8

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09

Hydrocarbon Flaring from Worldwide Upstream Oil and Gas Production

Million Metric Tons

Page 15: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Multiple Risks - Multiple Frameworks

Facilities Integrity Management System (FIMS)

Controls Integrity Management System (CIMS)

ExxonMobil Capital Project Management System (EMCAPS)

OBO Management System

Global Energy Management System (GEMS)

ExxonMobil employs multiple frameworks to lower risk profiles across the business

Page 16: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Risk Management

Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by the appropriate staff training

Financial risks are reduced through diversity of investments and strong aligned agreements

Geopolitical risks are managed through portfolio diversity

Technical risks are quantified through data collection and analysis

ExxonMobil brings experience from around the globe to manage risk

Page 17: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

ExxonMobil’s Resource Base

Diverse by resource type

Diverse by geography

Diverse by geology

Diverse by technology

ExxonMobil’s diverse resource base of over 80 billion oil equivalent barrels serves to mitigate geopolitical risk

Unconventional Gas and Oil

Arctic

0

30

60

90

YE 2009

Conventional

Heavy Oil / Oil Sands

Deepwater

Acid / Sour Gas

Liquefied Natural Gas

GOEB Resource Base*

* Combined resource base for ExxonMobil and XTO using YE 2009 data. The “Unconventional Gas and Oil” category also includes Bakken shale oil resources.

Page 18: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

New Opportunities

ExxonMobil has a diverse global portfolio of high-quality opportunities

Orphan

WestGreenland

Beaufort

Kuwait

Athabasca

Philippines

Libya

Brazil

Indonesia

AustraliaMadagascar

Turkey

GoMVietnamAbu Dhabi

Iraq

Arctic

Heavy OilAcid / Sour GasDeepwater

LNG

Conventional

Unconventional

Horn River

Poland

MarcellusHaynesville / Bossier

Germany

Tanzania

Eagle Ford

Nigeria

Angola

Guyana

Argentina

BakkenCardium

Romania

PNG

Ireland

Norway

Page 19: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Significant Global Project Portfolio

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

project stage Geography

Number of Projects (YE '09)

Operating

Executing

Defining

Planning / Selecting

Middle East

Americas

Europe

Africa

Russia / Caspian

Asia Pacific

Project Stage Geography

ExxonMobil has a diverse portfolio of more than 130 projects, thereby reducing financial risks

Page 20: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Kearl Oil Sands

Initial phase on schedule to commence operations by year end 2012

Construction ~25% complete

Tailings management plan revised in line with new regulatory directive

Tailings containment design updated to address specific local site conditions

Engineering studies continuing as planned for full field development

Superior quality oil sands deposit near Fort McMurray, Alberta

Page 21: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

0

100

200

300

400

Regulatory Approval @ 345 kbd

Initial Development

Expansion

Kearl Development Update

Original plan was to develop Kearl in 3 phases to produce >300 kbd

• Phased development to capture learnings and enhance execution, development and marketing

Reconfiguring plan to include debottlenecking and expansion to ~345 kbd

• Current focus on leveraging execution learnings, initial infrastructure and replication to minimize full field development costs

Same superior quality resource developed at attractive unit development costs

Original Development Plan

Current Outlook

Full field development studies progressing

0

100

200

300

400

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

Facility Performance Allowance

Regulatory Approval @ 345 kbd

kbd

kbd

Page 22: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Unconventional Gas and Oil

70 TCFE unconventional resource base

Proven ability to consistently and profitably grow production

Opportunity to enhance performance

Long-term commitment to research will deliver advantaged technologies

XTO merger establishes the premier global unconventional resource company and further diversifies ExxonMobil’s portfolio

0

1000

2000

3000

2006 2007 2008 2009

XTO Average Daily Production

MCFE/D

Shale GasTight GasCoal Bed MethaneShale Oil

Bakken

Marcellus

Fayetteville

Haynesville/Bossier

Woodford

BarnettFreestone

San Juan

UintaPiceance

EagleFord

Raton

Gas

OilNGL

Page 23: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

US Gulf of Mexico - Hadrian

PfD process enabled fast-track project definition and selective appraisal drilling

Hadrian oil discovery appraisal is ongoing

Hadrian South gas discovery is fully appraised and moving to development

3

N

KC1008

KC875 KC876KC874

LuciusDiscovery

Hadrian-5(Planned)

2 Miles

KC964

Hadrian-2

Hadrian-4

KC962 KC963

KC920

Hadrian-1KC918

KC919

Hadrian-3

Gas Discovery

Oil Discovery

EM 50% (Operator)

Key

Technical risks are reduced through Planning for Development (PfD)

Page 24: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Canada Horn River

Technical risks reduced through effective ‘sweet spot’ identification

Over 320,000 netacres

Multiple productive reservoir intervals

Well, seismic and test data supports ‘sweetspot’interpretation

Industry Production Pads

IOL / EM PlannedProduction

IOL/EMC Existing ShaleGas Tests/Wells3D Seismic Coverage

Existing and PlannedIndustry Gas Plants

Horn River Basin

Horn River Basin

FORT NELSON

Page 25: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Upstream Operating Costs

ExxonMobil has lower unit operating costs than most competitors

ExxonMobil is focused on further improving productivity and unit cost performance while maintaining safety / environmental performance

Approach to risk management not compromised by lower unit costs

* Upstream technical costs normalized using 10-K/20-F information; beginning in 2009, equity companies and oil sands mining operations are included.

0

5

10

15

20

25

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09**

BP

RDS

XOM

CVX

Total Costs per OEB*$ per OEB

Page 26: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Advantaged technologies and breakthrough research enable risk management

Research initiatives address safety / environmental, technical and financial risks

Developing high-reward, risk-reduction technologies for the future

Long-term Commitment to Research

Subsurface Imaging Shale Gas Drilling Heavy Oil Sour Gas

Exploration Development Production

Page 27: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Next Generation Resources

Challenging arctic environments require continued technical innovation to access and produce resources

ExxonMobil investing in next generation biofuels research and development

Arctic Environment

Algae Research

Tomorrows resources will require a range of new technologies to lower the associated risk profile

Page 28: Managing Risk for Superior Returns · 2016. 5. 2. · Risk Management Safety / Environmental risks are minimized through the application of technology and processes, supported by

Conclusions

The world will need energy to fuel progress and development

ExxonMobil’s diverse portfolio and effective risk management approach can safely and responsibly provide the energy the world needs

ExxonMobil’s risk management systems are a key element in delivering superior shareholder returns over the long term

ExxonMobil is an industry leader in employing effective, systematic processes to manage risk