Managing sustainability transitions

The Dutch Energy transition

René Kemp

Presentation at SDRN meetingLondon, 22 Sept, 2004

MERIT & DRIFT

Contents NMP4: the need for sustainability

transitions What is transition management Transition management in

practice. The example of sustainable energy policy

Conclusions

Why do we need transitions? NMP4: persistent environmental problems

(climate change, biodiversity, depletion of resources, threats to human health)

require system change or transitions towards alternative systems of energy supply, transport, resource use, agriculture

existing policy is not enough (transitions require changes in policy)

What is a transition?

Transition is a process in which something changes from one state to another (Collins Dictionary).

Societal transitions are transformation processes resulting in a new type of coherence (system logic) that constitutes the basis for further development

A transition is the result of many changes and not a deterministic process (source: Butter et al., 2002)

Transition phases

Take off

Breakthrough

Predevelopment

Stabilisation

Time

Magnitude of societal change

Rotmans, Kemp, van Asselt (2001)

Transition management

…. is a deliberate effort to work towards a transition in a stepwise, adaptive manner, utilising

dynamics and visions

… is a model for governancein which different visions and routes are explored:

Transition Management: bifocal instead of myopic

Political margins for

change

State of development of solutions

Societal goals

Sustainability visions

Transition management: oriented towards long-term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal)

Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic)

Mathematically transition management = current policies + long-term vision + vertical and horizontal coordination of policies + portfolio-management + process management.

... is bottom-up and top-down, using strategic experiments and “frame condition” policies

… is a model for governance, relying on “self-organisation”

Sustainable energy economy:– economically efficient (‘profit’)– reliable (‘people’)– minimal negative environmental and social

impacts (‘planet’) Long term goals, combined with Concrete short term steps …and successes...

Areas of interest in the Energy transition

Policy Renewal

Biomass

Sustainable Rijnmond

New Gas

Eff. Energy Chains

2050

Transition Paths

2020

Transition Paths

2008

Present

Visionary: Global Images

Strategic Vision: Concrete

Efficiency Biomass New Gas

Experiments

Research

Research

Experiments

Experiments

Go - No Go

More abstract

More concrete

2050 Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supply ‘Vision’

2020‘Strategic goals’10-15% in power prod. 15-20% in traffic

2003 2 à 3 %

‘Transition Paths’

C. Biofuels

B. Pyrolysis

A. Gasification

ExpvEO

SExp

Exp EOS: experiments : R&D

The biomass transition

Transition management is not a “megalomaniac” attempt to control the future

But an attempt at goal-oriented modulation, relying on variation and selection (through markets and public choice)

It is a model for governance in which system innovations are explored, in a stepwise manner

Conclusion

“Policies for science and technology must always be a mixture of realism and idealism”

Chris Freeman (1991)

1. The orientation to transition goals (less short-termism)

2. The orientation to learning and innovation (helps to overcome the preference for quick results, and policy reliance on technical fixes)

3. Alignment of different policy domains (helps to deal with fragmented policies)

4. Programmes for system innovation based on visions of sustainability

5. Opening up of policy process (less domination by vested interests)

What’s new about transition management?

Ways in which transition management address the 5 key problems of SD policy

Dissent: agreeing on key performance parameters for functional systems

Distributed control: visions, long-term goals and programmes for system innovation

Short-term steps: strategic experiments and steps towards changing frame conditions

Danger of lock-in to suboptimal solutions: portfolios and adaptive policies

Political myopia: transition agendas, arenas, forgoing technical fixes

QuestionsTo what extent is the UK involved in transition management?

Will the UK be more successful in reducing CO2 than NL but less successful in creating new energy business?