man’s role in climate change - texas master...

Man’s Role in Climate Change:A Student’s Understanding

Marty Cornell October 26, 2009

Does the Science Support Human -Induced Global

Warming?

Correlation is not

causation.

“Few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent that combating climate change. The Science is Beyond dispute and the facts are clear .”President-elect Barack Obama, November 19, 2008

Steven Chu , US Secretary of Energy, Nobel Prize Physics, 1997

“Science has unambiguously shown that we’re altering the destiny of our planet”

“The science is clear, we’re boiling our planet”

2009 speech at Tsinghua University, China

“ With all due respect Mr. President, that is not true.”

+100 PhD Scientists in LA Times Ad, March 30, 2009

“… ..The computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior.”… .

The Issue:

Climate Change

Global Warming

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)

Carbon -based (CAGW)

Empirical DataComputer model projections

Current trend is minor and nothing unusual

Driving to tipping point crisis of run-away heat

Solar Cycle driven, forcings to be determined

CO2 GHG driven, amplified by H2O

Earth has warmed 0.6OC last century

Earth has warmed 0.6OC last century

Proponents of Natural Cycles (“skeptics”, “deniers”, “flat earthers”)

Proponents of CAGW (“alarmists”,

“environmentalists”)

Two Views on Global Warming

James E. Hansen, CAGW ProponentNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

26 April 2007 testimony to the Select Committee of Energy Independence and Global Warming of the U. S. House of Representatives entitled "Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate"

Air temperatures of the last quarter-century have been unprecedented for at least the past two thousand years.

The atmosphere's current CO 2 concentration is greater than it may have been for tens of millions of years.

The earth "is close to dangerous climate change, to tipping points of the system with the potential for irreversible deleterious effects."

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

What? Physical Science

Basis

So What? Impacts, Adaptation,

and Vulnerability

Now What? Mitigation

Summarizes the peer reviewed literature on climate every five years

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Summary for Policy Makers

Provide the science to support the need to control greenhouse gas levels.

Written by an assemblage of representative from governments and NGO ’s, with only a small scientific representation.

ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade

Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade

Solar = 0.007 OC/decade

People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade

“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long -term warming in the historical global surface

temperature anomalies.” Lean & Rind, 2008

The notion of a static, unchanging climate is foreign to the history of the earth or any other planet with a fluid envelope.

The fact that the developed world went into hysterics over changes in global mean temperature anomaly of a few tenths of a degree will astound future generations.

Such hysteria simply represents the scientific illiteracy of much of the public,

the susceptibility of the public to the substitution of repetition for truth,

and the exploitation of these weaknesses by politicians, environmental promoters, and, after 20 years of media drum beating, many others as well.

Richard S. Lindzen, CAGW SkepticAlfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences a t Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 26, 2009

Global Warming Petition Project31,478 American scientists have signed this petitio n,

including 9,029 with PhDs

“The focus on just CO 2 as the dominate human climate forcing is too narrow.

Natural variations are still quite important.

Human influence is significant, but it involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of CO 2. ”

Emission of aerosols into the atmosphere,

Land management and land cover change.

Roger A. Pielke, Both Natural and AGWSenior Research Scientist at CIRES, emeritus profe ssor of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, retired.

“Climate Money”, Joan Nova, via The Science and Public Policy Institute, July, 2009

$79 Billion so far

e.g. carbon sequestration

Cap & Trade Cost $1,761 per HouseholdSource: US Treasury

What is Climate?

What causes climate change?

How do we measure climate change?

Is the current warming unusual?

How much of the current warming is due to man vs. nature?

What Does the Science Say?

Climate is what you expect.

Weather is what you get.

Brazoria County Airport

Weekly Mean Temperature, OF

Annual Precipitation,

Inches

Wind Speed, mph

What is Climate?

What causes climate change?

What Does the Science Say?

Changes in Solar Inputs

Changes in the Atmosphere: Composition, Circulation

Atmosphere

N2, O2, Ar,

H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, etc.

Aerosols

Changes in the Hydrological Cycle

Clouds

Atmosphere-Biosphere Interaction

Biosphere

Ice Sheet

Land-Atmosphere Interaction

Land Surface

Soil-Biosphere Interaction

Volcanic Activity

Glaciers

Changes in the Cryosphere : Snow, Frozen Ground, Sea Ice, Ice Sheets, Glaciers

Changes in/on the Land Surface:Orography, Land Use, Vegetation, Ecosystems

Human Influences

Changes in the Ocean: Circulation, Sea Level, Biogeochemistry

Hydrosphere: Rivers & Lakes

Ice-Ocean Coupling

Hydrosphere: Ocean

Atmosphere-Ice Interaction

Sea Ice

Heat Exchange

Wind Stress

Precipitation Evaporation Terrestrial

Radiation

Components of the Climate System

ERBEEarth Radiation Budget Experiment

3 satellites, 1 st

launched in 1984

Measure energy exchanges between sun, earth, & space

Albedo (reflectance)

OLR (outgoing longwave radiation)

Effect of clouds

Emission Spectra of the Sun and Earth

JunkScience.com, Updated August 2007

Incoming Solar

Radiation 342 Wm-2

Reflected Solar Radiation 107 Wm -2107

Outgoing Longwave Radiation 235 Wm-2

235

Emitted by Atmosphere

165

30

Reflected by Surface

Reflected by Clouds, Aerosol, and

Atmospheric Gases 77 Wm-2

77

168 Absorbed by Surface

390 Surface

Radiation

35040

40 Atmospheric Window

Emitted by clouds

30

67Absorbed by Atmosphere

Latent 78 Heat

78 Evapo-transpiration

24 Thermals

Greenhouse Gases

324 Back

Radiation

324 Absorbed by Surface

Without greenhouse gases, the earth would be 33 OC

(59.4 OF) cooler!

i.e. -18OC instead of +15 OC

NASA CERES Satellite

33 Wm-2 Reflected by Clouds

235 Wm-2 Outgoing Longwave Radiation

TESTING YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL IQTESTING YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL IQ

The # 1 Green House Gas Is:

The # 2 Greenhouse Gas Is:

The # 3 Greenhouse Gas Is:

Water Vapor (60 - 95)%

(2 - 10)% Tropospheric Ozone(2 - 10)% Nitrous Oxide(0 - 10)% Stratospheric H 2O

(5 - 25)% Halocarbons

(10 - 25)% Methane

(35 - 65)% Carbon Dioxide

Remaining Greenhouse Gases (5 - 40)%

(0.5 - 1.5)%

Global Greenhouse Effect

Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect

Contribution of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases to the Natural Greenhouse Effect

Contribution of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases to the Natural Greenhouse Effect

Hans Peter Lenz and Christian Cozzarini, Emissions and Air Quality , SAE, 1999

The primary source of CO 2emissions is ……..


The primary source of CO 2 emissions is:

“… ..the transportation sector now accounts for about one third of all CO 2 emissions in the US and road transportation is three quarters of that third.”


Malcom A. Weiss, John B. Heywood, Elizabeth M. Drake , Andreas Schafer,Felix F. AuYeung; ON THE ROAD IN 2020, A life cycle analysis of new automobile technologies , Energy Laboratory Report # MIT EL 00-003, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, October, 200 0

MIT got it WRONG!

“The United States and China emit 45% of the

world ’s greenhouse

gases.”Press release prior to her Feb.,

2009 trip to China

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton

She got it WRONG!

Scatter Band of Global Annual CO2 Emissions (ref. year = 1996)Scatter Band of Global Annual Scatter Band of Global Annual

COCO22 Emissions (ref. year = 1996)Emissions (ref. year = 1996)

Peter Lenz and Christian Cozzarini, “State of World wide Anthropogenic and NaturalEmissions Forecast of Traffic Emissions in Western Industrial Countries”, FISITA F98P008

Oceans 43%

Vegetation 28%

Soil 28%

Biomass Burning 1%

~36,000 Billion Tons Carbon in Oceans

Mauna Loa

0.038% (dry air)

The #1 source of man made CO2is……


Distribution of Worldwide Annual Anthropogene CO 2-EmissionDistribution of Worldwide Annual Distribution of Worldwide Annual Anthropogene COAnthropogene CO 22--EmissionEmission

32% Cars

33% Trucks

12% Other Traffic

6% Ocean Ships

17% Air Traffic

Private Home Heatingand Small Consumers

20%

Incineration of Biomass15%

Traffic17%

Power Stations28%

Industry20%

28 Gt/yr.

Background �� Forcings

Climate “Forcings ” Change Energy Balance

The Sun

Clouds (type and amount)

Aerosols & Particulates

Albedo (reflectivity)

Land Use (vegetation, Urban Heat Island)

Green House Gas Concentration

Milankovitch Cycles Drive Ice Age Cycles

21,000 year cycle elliptical orbit combined with ti lt (precession of the equinoxes)

41,000 year cycle of the +/- 1.5 O wobble (tilt)

100,000 year cycle variation of the shape of earth’ s elliptical orbit (cycle of eccentricity)

Eccentricity of Earth ’s OrbitNational Academy of Sciences

Ice VolumePlanktonic Foram 18O as Proxy

1,000 of Years Ago

Del

18 O

%More Ice

Less Ice

Polar Bear Sub-species

This map courtesy of Jonathan Adams

Note: Sea Level

incorrect.

This map courtesy of Jonathan Adams

The Holocene Optimum

http://uk.encarta.msn.com/media_461527006/ice_exten t_during_the_last_ice_age.html

Oceans ~ -120m = ~ -400 feet! During Last Glacial Maximum

~14mm/year

Image from GlobalWarmingArt.com

Image from GlobalWarmingArt.com

20.2 cm/122 years = ~0.17 cm/year

16.6 years

Data via Climate Audit from climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/

Sea Level Change 21Aug09

54 mm

Ice VolumePlanktonic Foram O-18 as Proxy

1,000 of Years Ago

Del

O-1

8 %

More Ice

Less Ice

“Eustatic sea level was higher than

present during this last interglacial by ~4 to ~6 meters ”

IPCC 4TAR, Palaeoclimate, p 458

NASA & ESA ’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory

SOHO

Spotless DaysCurrent Stretch: 75 days

2009 total: 217 daysSince 2004: 728 days

Typical Solar Min: 485 days

2009/09/23

Faculae

11 Year Cycle of Solar Variability +/- 0.1 Wm-2

Sun

spot

Num

ber

Sun

spot

Num

ber

X 1

00

50

150

100

Little Ice Age

~1.0 OC cooler ~ 50 sunspots over 30 year

period,

vs. 40,000 to 50,000

sunspots per 30 years in

modern times

Frozen Thames, 1677

Correlation is not

causation.

Solar Cycle & Sea Level (

via

Tid

e G

auge

s)Recall the NASA current 3.3 mm/year

rise rate since 1994

Sun SummaryThe Sun dominates Earth’s climate.

Earth’s orbit eccentricities cause major climate chang es:

Ice Ages �� Interglacials,

~5.5 OC swings in temperature average,

Ice ages dominate (70% - 90% of 100,000 yr cycle).

Ice Ages decrease vegetation, increase deserts.

Sea levels have risen 120 m since the last glacial m aximum.

Today’s temperatures are not unusual, having been equ aled or exceeded at least 3 times since the last glacial ma ximum.

~11 year solar cycles strongly correlate with climate c hanges during interglacial periods.

Low sunspots �� ~ -1OC.

Modern sea level fluctuations highly correlate with so lar cycle.

Solar +/- 0.1 Wm -2 not sufficient by itself to cause current warming; need amplifier,

forcing feedback.

Magnetic field of solar winds

HenrikSvensmark on

Global Warming, youtube.com

Affect cosmic rays reaching Earth ’s atmosphere

+/- Low level clouds

High (6 km) Cirrus Clouds Warm Earth

Low Clouds Reflect Sunlight �� Cool Earth

Photo by Robert Campbell

Measuring Earth ’s Albedo

Observed Earthshine

From satellite cloud data

From 20 th century GHG Increase

Cal

ibra

tion

Ban

d

Strength of Solar Wind �� +/- Magnetic Field �� -/+ Cosmic Rays

Bow shock line

Magnetosphere

Illustration by Janet Kozyra with images from NASA, Journal of Geophysical Research – Space Physics.

Sun’s Turbulent Magnetic Fields

The Cosmos Cosmic Rays Create Seeds of Low -lying Clouds

Svensmark Hypothesis

Reflect 33 Wm-2

A more active Sun decreases the amounts of low-lyin g clouds, which means that it warms the Earth.

The Cosmos

Cos

mic

Ray

s

Creates Seeds of Low-lying Clouds

Svensmark Hypothesis

Cosm

ic Rays

Since 1987 Implies

~ -5% Cloud H 2O �� ~ +1OC

The Solar – Climate Relationship

Lower Magnetic Field Strength

FewerSunspots

LessSolar Wind

More Galactic Cosmic Rays

More Low LevelCloud Formation

More Sunlight Reflected

Into Space

Earth BecomesCooler

Inverse of Cosmic Rays

Solar Flux

Ocean Heat Flux

Atlantic Ocean Heat Flux

Sea Surface Temp.

SST w/out ENSO

Sea Level Rise

Shaviv & Veizer,GSA Today, 2003

IcehouseGreenhouse

CO2 GCR

Million Years BP

El Capitan, Guadalupe Mountains

Coral reef formed ~260 million years ago ….

…..when atmospheric CO 2was ~2000 ppm

Correlation recently reported between solar/GCR var iability and temperature in Siberia from glacial ice core, 3 0 yr lag (ie.

ocean currents may be part of response)

Jasper Kirkby /CERNCERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009

Correlation is not

causation.

Inquisition of Dr. Henrik Svensmark

Jasper Kirkby /CERNCERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009

Correlation is not

causation.

“When researchers observe natural changes in clouds and temperature, they have traditionally assumed that the temperature change caused the clouds to change, and not the other way around.

To the extent that the cloud changes actually cause temperature change, this can ultimately lead to overestimates of how sensitive Earth’s climate is to our greenhouse gas emissions.”

Cause? �� CLOUDS �� Result? and Temperature

Dr. Roy W. Spencer, University of Alabama in Huntsville,

Atmospheric Solar Heat AmplifierMeehl Hypothesis, Science, 28Aug09

Peak Solar Cycle+0.2 Wm-2

IrradianceHigher UVRadiation

More Ozone inStratosphere

HigherEvaporation

Less Low LevelCloud Formation

+0.1 OC SST= > 0.5 Wm-2

WarmerStratosphere

(Varies byLatitude)

Observed

Model: no Stratosphere

Ozone Chemistry

Model: no Air-Sea

interaction

Coupled Model

Sea

Sur

face

Tem

pera

ture

Pre

cipi

tatio

n

Model with no Ozone Chemistry

Model: no Air-Sea

interaction

Coupled Model

Observations

Photo by Andrei Aiordachioaie

Cloud Summary

High level clouds trap heat.

Low level clouds mostly reflect heat

Net effect is ~ 33 Wm -2

Sun �� GCR hypothesis �� + or – cloud seeding

�� -5% Cloud H 2O �� ~ +1OC

Albedo fluctuation correlated with last two solar cycles.

Meehl hypothesis: peak solar �� more ozone and more evaporation (less clouds) �� ~ +0.1 OC SST.

Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32

Cloud Albedo

0-2 +2+1-1

Wm-2

Solar ��Aerosols

Sarychev Peak Eruption 12Jun09, from International S pace Station

Atmospheric Aerosols & Particulates

�� Net Cooling of -0.5 Wm -2 (IPCC 4TR)

@ 1 Wm-2 �� 0.22 OC, this ~ -0.11 OC

Sahara Sand Storm over Atlantic

Station Fire, Los Angeles, 30Aug09

Contrails

Ship Tracks off North America

Black Carbon

Absorbs solar radiation

Decreases albedo

IPCC 4TAR: Aerosol cooling �� -0.5 Wm-2

Myhre 2009 “Black Carbon more significant than stated by IPCC, �� net aerosol cooling reduced to -0.3 Wm -2

Aerosol SummaryParticles Multi-Task to Change Climate:

Volcanic plumes (sulfates) cool.

Dust storms & fires reflect, thus cool.

Jet Contrails = high clouds, thus warm.

Ship tracks (sulfates, low clouds) cool.

Black carbon decreases albedo, thus warm.

IPCC net effect �� -0.5 Wm-2 (i.e. cooling)

Increase in Black Carbon decreases cooling to -0.3 W m-2

This means IPCC impact of CO 2 is overstated by 0.2 Wm -2

~ 0.04 OC.

Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32

Direct Aerosol

Cloud Albedo

Linear Contrails

0-2 +2+1-1

Wm-2

No volcanic aerosol effect is included by

IPCC

Aerosols �� Oscillations

“Oscillations ”“Oscillations ”

Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere , John Christy UAH

Recall 20 th Century net warming of 0.6 OC

~+/- 0.5OC in north Atlantic

60 to 80 years

Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

AMO

?? 1976-77 shift +0.2OC

20 to 30 years?

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

PDO

+/- 0.4OC globally

3 to 7 yearsEl Nino Southern Oscillation

ENSO

2.3 OC global temp. swing

AnnuallyThe 4 seasonsSFWS

J DNOSAJJMAMF

Month

Tem

pera

ture

, O

C

16

11

12

13

14

15

Global Mean Surface Temperature (1961 – 1990)National Climate Data Center

3.8 OC

Global Mean 2.3 OC swing

NH 9.76 OC swing

SH 4.8 OC swing

ENSO “Normal” a.k.a La NinaENSO “Normal” a.k.a La Nina

ENSO El NinoENSO El Nino

SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacif ic Ocean, January 1997

NASA GISSThermocline, 20 OC

30OC

8OC

La Nina

SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacif ic Ocean, November 1997

NASA GISS

Transition

SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacif ic Ocean, March 1998

NASA GISS

El Nino

El Nino

La Nina

Nothing unique about super El Nino of 1998

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)Typical wintertime Sea Surface Temperature (colors),

Sea Level Pressure (contours) and surface wind stress (arrows) anomaly patterns during warm and cool phases of PDO

Warm Phase Cool Phase

Abrupt PDO Phase Shift

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Aug to Oct: 1948 to 2003: Surface SST

North Atlantic

Global

“Probably more than half of all satellite -derived "global warming trends" are directly

attributable to the 66 year AMO cycle.”

Northern Hemisphere Heating Faster Than Southern Hemisphere

Correlation is not

causation.

man’s role in climate change - texas master...

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