manual of ideas part.1
TRANSCRIPT
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Investing In The Tradition of Graham, Buffett, Klarman
Year V, Volume III
March 2012
When asked how he became so
successful, Buffett answered:
“We read hundreds and hundreds
of annual reports every year.”
Top Ideas In This Report
Ambassadors Group (NYSE: EPAX) …………………… 68
Corning (NYSE: GLW) ………………….... 84
Xerox (NYSE: XRX) …………………… 144
Also Inside
Editor’s Commentary ……………….. 4
Rapuano on Ambassadors Group ….. 6
Interview with John Lambert ………. 7
Portfolios with Signal Value™ …… 12
20 Superinvestor Holdings ……….. 68
Screening Superinvestor Stocks….. 148
Favorite Value Screens ……………158
This Month’s Top Web Links …….. 167
About The Manual of Ideas
Our goal is to bring you investment ideas that are compelling on the basis of value versus price. In our quest for value, we analyze the top holdings of top fund managers. We also use a proprietary methodology to identify stocks that are not widely followed by institutional investors.
Our research team has extensive experience in industry and securityanalysis, equity valuation, and investment management. We bring a “buy side” mindset to the idea generation process, cutting across industries and market capitalization ranges in our search for compellingequity investment opportunities.
THE SUPERINVESTOR ISSUE
Screening for bargains owned by superinvestors
Latest top holdings of 50+ top investors
20 companies profiled by MOI research team
Proprietary selection of Top Three candidates for investment
Plus: Lisa Rapuano’s guest write-up on Ambassadors Group
Plus: Exclusive interview with John Lambert
Plus: Favorite stock screens for value investors
Superinvestor companies mentioned in this issue include AbitibiBowater,
Alliant Techsystems, Ambassadors Group, Ameriprise Financial,
Annaly Capital, Apache, Assured Guaranty, Axis Capital, Baker Hughes,
Bank of America, Best Buy, BofI Holding, Boston Scientific, BP,
C&J Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, Capital One, Chevron, CIGNA,
Citigroup, Cliffs Natural, CNinsure, Commercial Metals, ConocoPhillips,
Corning, Covidien, Cowen, CVR Energy, Dell, Delphi Automotive,
Delta Air Lines, DeVry, DIRECTV, Enstar Group, Everest Re, Flagstone Re,
Flextronics, Gannett, General Motors, Genworth Financial, GeoMet,
Goodyear Tire, Google, Greenlight Re, Halliburton, Hanesbrands,
Hartford Financial, HCA, Health Mgmt Associates, Hewlett-Packard,
HollyFrontier, Ingram Micro, JPMorgan Chase, Katy Industries, KKR & Co.,
Kronos Worldwide, MEMC Electronic Materials, Meritor, Navistar,
Newcastle Investment, Newfield Exploration, Oracle, Owens Illinois,
Patterson-UTI Energy, PDL BioPharma, PennyMac Mortgage, PHH, Popular,
Quad Graphics, R.R. Donnelley, RenaissanceRe, Republic Airways,
Sanofi-Aventis, Seagate Technology, SK Telecom, SLM Corp.,
Spectrum Brands, Staples, Symetra Financial, Take-Two Interactive Software,
Targacept, Telecom Argentina, Teva Pharma, Torchmark, TOTAL,
TravelCenters, TRW Automotive, United Continental, Universal Stainless,
US Airways, Valassis Comms, Valeant Pharmaceuticals, Valero Energy,
Validus, Virgin Media, Warner Chilcott, WellPoint, Xerium Technologies,
Xerox, YPF, and more.
(analyzed companies are underlined)
Visit the Members Area athttp://members.manualofideas.com
Table of Contents
EDITORIAL COMMENTARY ..........................................................................4
GUEST WRITE-UP: LISA RAPUANO ON AMBASSADORS GROUP..........6
EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH JOHN LAMBERT........................................7
ONLINE ONLY: THREE EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEWS.................................. 10
50+ PORTFOLIOS WITH SIGNAL VALUE™.............................................. 12
AKRE CAPITAL (CHUCK AKRE) ................................................................................................ 13
ALTAI CAPITAL (TOBY SYMONDS) ........................................................................................... 14
ANCIENT ART / TETON (QUINCY LEE) ...................................................................................... 15
APPALOOSA (DAVID TEPPER) ................................................................................................. 16
ATLANTIC INVESTMENT (ALEXANDER ROEPERS) ...................................................................... 17
BARES CAPITAL (BRIAN BARES).............................................................................................. 18
BAUPOST (SETH KLARMAN).................................................................................................... 19
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY (WARREN BUFFETT) ........................................................................... 20
BP CAPITAL (BOONE PICKENS)............................................................................................... 21
BRAVE WARRIOR (GLENN GREENBERG).................................................................................. 22
BREEDEN CAPITAL (RICHARD BREEDEN) ................................................................................. 23
CENTAUR VALUE (ZEKE ASHTON) ........................................................................................... 24
CENTERBRIDGE (JEFFREY ARONSON AND MARK GALLOGLY) .................................................... 25
CHILDREN’S INVESTMENT (CHRIS HOHN)................................................................................. 26
CHOU ASSOCIATES (FRANCIS CHOU) ...................................................................................... 27
EAGLE CAPITAL (BOYKIN CURRY) ........................................................................................... 28
EAGLE VALUE (MERYL WITMER) ............................................................................................. 29
EDINBURGH PARTNERS (SANDY NAIRN) .................................................................................. 30
ESL INVESTMENTS (EDDIE LAMPERT) ..................................................................................... 31
FAIRFAX (PREM WATSA) ........................................................................................................ 32
FAIRHOLME (BRUCE BERKOWITZ) ........................................................................................... 33
FORCE CAPITAL (ROBERT JAFFE) ........................................................................................... 34
GATES CAPITAL (JEFF GATES) ............................................................................................... 35
GLENVIEW (LARRY ROBBINS) ................................................................................................. 36
GOLDENTREE (STEVE TANANBAUM) ....................................................................................... 37
GREENHAVEN (ED WACHENHEIM)........................................................................................... 38
GREENLIGHT (DAVID EINHORN) .............................................................................................. 39
H PARTNERS (REHAN JAFFER) ............................................................................................... 40
HARBINGER (PHIL FALCONE) .................................................................................................. 41
HAWKSHAW (KIAN GHAZI) ...................................................................................................... 42
HOUND PARTNERS (JONATHAN AUERBACH) ............................................................................ 43
ICAHN ENTITIES (CARL ICAHN)................................................................................................ 44
INTERNATIONAL VALUE ADVISERS (CHARLES DE VAULX) .......................................................... 45
JOHO CAPITAL (ROBERT KARR) .............................................................................................. 46
LANE FIVE (LISA RAPUANO).................................................................................................... 47
LEUCADIA (IAN CUMMING AND JOE STEINBERG) ....................................................................... 48
LONE PINE (STEVE MANDEL).................................................................................................. 49
MARKEL GAYNER (TOM GAYNER) ........................................................................................... 50
MHR (MARK RACHESKY) ....................................................................................................... 51
MSD CAPITAL (GLENN FUHRMAN AND JOHN PHELAN).............................................................. 52
PABRAI FUNDS (MOHNISH PABRAI) ......................................................................................... 53
PAULSON & CO. (JOHN PAULSON) .......................................................................................... 54
PENNANT (ALAN FOURNIER)................................................................................................... 55
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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PERSHING SQUARE (BILL ACKMAN) ........................................................................................ 56
SAGEVIEW (ED GILHULY AND SCOTT STUART) ......................................................................... 57
SCOUT (JAMES CRICHTON) .................................................................................................... 58
SECOND CURVE (TOM BROWN) .............................................................................................. 59
SOUTHEASTERN (MASON HAWKINS) ....................................................................................... 60
THIRD POINT (DAN LOEB)....................................................................................................... 61
TIGER GLOBAL (CHASE COLEMAN) ......................................................................................... 62
VALUEACT (JEFFREY UBBEN)................................................................................................. 63
WEITZ FUNDS (WALLY WEITZ)................................................................................................ 64
WEST COAST (LANCE HELFERT AND PAUL ORFALEA)............................................................... 65
WINTERGREEN (DAVID WINTERS) ........................................................................................... 66
WL ROSS & CO. (WILBUR ROSS) ........................................................................................... 67
PROFILING 20 SUPERINVESTOR HOLDINGS ......................................... 68
AMBASSADORS GROUP (EPAX) – LANE FIVE ...................................................................... 68
BAKER HUGHES (BHI) – GREENHAVEN ............................................................................... 72
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC (BSX) – APPALOOSA ........................................................................ 76
CANADIAN NATURAL (CNQ) – BP CAPITAL , PERSHING SQUARE , WINTERGREEN .......... 80
CORNING (GLW) – CENTURY , DODGE & COX , SEQUOIA ....................................... 84
COVIDIEN (COV) – FPA CRESCENT , HEARTLAND ............................................................. 88
CVR ENERGY (CVI) – APPALOOSA , ICAHN .................................................................... 92
DELL (DELL) – ANCIENT ART , FAIRFAX , GREENLIGHT , IVA , WEITZ ................... 96
DEVRY (DV) – ARIEL , FPA , LANE FIVE ................................................................... 100
FLIR SYSTEMS (FLIR) – WEITZ ........................................................................................ 104
GOOGLE (GOOG) – BRAVE WARRIOR , LONE PINE , PENNANT , SCOUT , TIGER .... 108
MEMC ELECTRONIC MATERIALS (WFR) – ALTAI , THIRD POINT .................................... 112
NEWFIELD EXPLORATION (NFX) – EAGLE CAPITAL , FPA , OAKMARK ............................ 116
ORACLE (ORCL) – APPALOOSA , EAGLE , GLENVIEW , MARKEL , WEITZ ....... 120
SPECTRUM BRANDS (SPB) – HARBINGER ......................................................................... 124
STAPLES (SPLS) – FORCE , IVA , OLSTEIN , PZENA ............................................ 128
TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE (TTWO) – GLENVIEW , ICAHN .................................................. 132
TRIPADVISOR (TRIP) – PENNANT , SCOUT ................................................................ 136
VIRGIN MEDIA (VMED) – EDINBURGH ............................................................................ 140
XEROX (XRX) – CENTAUR , GLENVIEW , GREENLIGHT , OLSTEIN ............................. 144
SCREENING ~850 HOLDINGS OF 50+ SUPERINVESTORS.................. 148
TOP 100, BY MARKET VALUE................................................................................................ 148
TOP 100, BY THIS FY EPS YIELD (CONSENSUS ESTIMATES) ................................................... 150
TOP 100, BY NEXT FY EPS YIELD (CONSENSUS ESTIMATES) .................................................. 152
TOP 100, BY TRAILING GROSS PROFIT TO ENTERPRISE VALUE ............................................... 154
TOP 100, BY TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE TO MARKET VALUE........................................................ 156
FAVORITE SCREENS FOR VALUE INVESTORS.................................... 158
“MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON TRAILING OPERATING INCOME ................................................. 158
“MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON THIS YEAR’S EPS ESTIMATES ................................................. 159
“MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON NEXT YEAR’S EPS ESTIMATES ................................................ 160
CONTRARIAN: BIGGEST YTD LOSERS (DELEVERAGED & PROFITABLE) ..................................... 161
VALUE WITH CATALYST: CHEAP REPURCHASERS OF STOCK ................................................... 162
PROFITABLE DIVIDEND PAYORS WITH DECENT BALANCE SHEETS............................................ 163
DEEP VALUE: LOTS OF REVENUE, LOW ENTERPRISE VALUE ................................................... 164
DEEP VALUE: NEGLECTED GROSS PROFITEERS .................................................................... 165
ACTIVIST TARGETS: POTENTIAL SALES, LIQUIDATIONS OR RECAPS ......................................... 166
THIS MONTH’S TOP 10 WEB LINKS ....................................................... 167
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Editorial Commentary
With the February 15th institutional investor holdings SEC filing deadline behind us,
we are pleased to bring you a new Superinvestor Issue of The Manual of Ideas.
We’ve screened hundreds of superinvestor companies, analyzed twenty of them, and
found three ideas that deserve closer consideration:
Ambassadors Group (Nasdaq: EPAX, $5.50 per share; MV $97 million)
Ambassadors has a long-term record of impressive growth and returns on capital.
Recent profitability has been pressured by revenue declines and high opex. The
company has a strong balance sheet and should benefit from a recovery, assuming
enrollment eventually returns to the 40,000-50,000 level that prevailed prior to the
recession. Improving economic conditions in 2012 will not be fully reflected in
travel bookings until 2013. It is worth noting that Ambassadors was slow to bounce
back after the 2001 recession. Similar dynamics may be at work currently due to the
long lead time required to generate travel bookings. The current valuation appears to
give little credit to recovery potential over the next two to three years.
Lisa Rapuano of Lane Five, a large shareholder of Ambassadors, kindly agreed to
write up her investment thesis for the benefit of our members (see page 6).
Corning (NYSE: GLW, $13.50 per share; MV $20 billion)
Corning, which makes specialty glass for LCD displays and other products, has been
hurt by steeper-than-expected price declines in the display and solar panel markets.
Display accounts for 40% of revenue, while the 50%-owned equity affiliate Dow
Corning sells into the solar panel market. According to management, “price declines
will reset the profitability of both Display Technologies and Dow Corning to lower
levels.” Still, analysts expect Corning to earn $1.39 and $1.52 per share in 2012 and
2013, respectively, rendering the shares quite attractive, especially in light of
Corning’s very strong balance sheet.
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Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Xerox (NYSE: XRX, $8.30 per share; MV $11 billion)
Xerox is one of the cheapest large IT services companies, trading at under 8x
estimated EPS of $1.12 in 2012. The company has been allocating capital in a
shareholder-friendly way, spending an expected ~$1 billion on repurchases this year.
Xerox also appears to have cost-cutting opportunities in the legacy ACS business,
which was acquired for $6 billion in 2010. As a result, EPS growth is likely to
outpace low to mid single digit revenue growth over the next few years. We wish
Xerox had a stronger balance sheet but acknowledge that buying back shares is most
likely a better use of capital than deleveraging the balance sheet.
VALUEx Zurich/Klosters took place from February 1-3 and was once again a huge
success. It was wonderful to see many of our members there and to meet some new
value investors from around the world. I hope you’ll consider applying to attend next
year’s event (check back at www.valuex.ch in a few months).
I take this opportunity to thank my friend and co-organizer Guy Spier for
making the event a great experience for all participants. VALUEx Zurich/Klosters
simply couldn’t exist without Guy’s charisma and hospitality.
We’ll be in Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting this May, and we
invite you to join us for drinks and conversation. Space at our private gathering is
very limited, so please email Oliver Mihaljevic today at [email protected]
if you plan on traveling to Omaha. We look forward to seeing you there!
While in town, we also look forward to attending John Schwartz and Whitney
Tilson’s star-studded Value Investing Congress, to be held on May 6-7. Visit
www.ValueInvestingCongress.com/manualofideas before March 15 to get $1,300 off
(we earn no commission but are simply passing the best deal on to you).
Sincerely,
John Mihaljevic, CFA
and The Manual of Ideas research team
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Access The Manual of Ideas Model Portfolio in the online members area at members.manualofideas.com.The portfolio consists of three sub-portfolios: a downside protection portfolio, a deep value portfolio, and a “magic formula” portfolio. To view the portfolio’s mark-to-market performance and latest activity, click on the above-referenced link or type it into your web browser.
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Guest Write-up: Lisa Rapuano on Ambassadors Group Ambassadors Group runs high-end student travel under the People to People and Discovery brand
names. This business used to be terrific, showing high teens enrollment growth, high 20%-range
revenue growth and triple digit returns on invested capital from the early 2000s through its peak in
2007. However, the fundamentals have declined precipitously since then. This decline began in 2009,
when the company saw a dramatic downturn in the number of students travelled during the financial
crisis and recession. Unlike most other travel and education related companies, however, there has
been no rebound in sales, and the number of enrolled travelers continues to contract. For 2011, the
company should end the year with travelers down ~10%,and down over 54% from the 2007 peak.
During this time, the company has increased its selling and marketing expenses related to the
travel business by about 5% and general and administrative spending related to the travel business is
down only 13% from the peak. This is obviously very poor performance when what was a triple-digit
return business is likely to earn only about 3% on equity and capital in the year we just completed.
Despite the disappointing results for the last four enrollment years, we think the business could be
revived to at least some level of its former level of performance, and at $5.50 today, it trades at a
ridiculously compelling valuation. At today’s price of ~$5.62, the company has a market capitalization
of ~$98 million. Cash at year end was ~$58.6 million, plus student deposits or $27.4 million, which we
treat as debt, puts the enterprise value at ~$70 million.
This company has historically generated outsized free cash flow due to high margins and low
capital expenditure needs. Since the students put down significant deposits ahead of their travel dates,
the company holds a large amount of “float”. Working capital can be very volatile. In most years it is a
benefit to cash but in 2011 we expect working capital to use cash because of lower student deposits
and the company’s choice to prepay a lot of future travel expenses. In 2010, however, working capital
was positive. So let’s leave working capital aside for this exercise. The company’s pre-working capital
free cash flow yield to EV is as follows:
2011: 9.9%
2010: 25.7%
2009: 66.7%
The company is trading at 5.1x the amount of cash it generated just a year ago. We rarely see these
sorts of free cash flow multiples for any type of business.
Clearly, the market is pricing the stock as if these cash flow numbers will never be repeated, but
we think that with the right strategy free cash flow can return to previous levels. We are not advocating
a particular approach at this time, but we see multiple ways that costs can be cut, money-losing
programs can be closed, program itineraries and possibly pricing can be revamped to meet customer
needs more appropriately, assets can be sold or optimized, and marketing and sales can be made more
efficient. In December we asked the Board to consider these issues and come back to us with
proposals, and we intend to continue this conversation.
The core People to People Student Ambassadors program is less awful than the aggregate business
appears to be, and we think there are opportunities to isolate that value while lowering or eliminating
losses in the non-core programs. In addition, we think there are costs that are redundant, marketing
approaches that are outdated and expensive, overcapacity of real estate that can be optimized and
possibly sellable assets that are not core to the student travel operation.
Overall we think EPAX is worth at least $10 if it is run in a low growth, asset optimized manner
that returns capital to shareholders and possibly as much as $20 if the business can be reinvigorated
and repositioned to begin growing again.
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Exclusive Interview with John Lambert We recently had the pleasure of interviewing John Lambert, an investment
manager at London-based GAM. Before joining GAM in 2007, John spent six
years as a pan-European investment analyst at Gartmore. Prior to that, he
worked as a UK equity analyst at M&G and a commodity trader at Cargill. John
holds a First Class BA (Hons) in Economics with Russian from Exeter
University and is a CFA Charterholder. He lives in London.
The Manual of Ideas: How did you get interested in investing? Describe your
path as an investor and what attracted you to your current role at GAM.
John Lambert: I first got interested in investing on a personal level during the
late 1990s when market gyrations were providing the retail investor with plenty
of opportunities to make, and lose, money. I certainly didn’t take it very
seriously to start with, but the more I learned about investing the more I felt it
was the ideal job for me, so I decided to make a slight change of direction to my
career, which was in commodities at the time. It has taken a long time to really
find a coherent investment style that I feel comfortable with, having worked for
several years just as a European sector analyst in industrial goods and services.
This was followed for a while by running a small pot of hedge fund assets
investing in that same sector, before moving to GAM. Here the brief is far
broader, helping to manage long-only UK and global funds with a distinct
contrarian and deep value approach.
Our time horizon is multi-year, which I feel much more comfortable with
than the daily pressure of the hedge fund world. It represented a huge step up,
given the relatively narrow area of expertise and experience as a sector analyst,
so the learning curve was necessarily very steep. The principal attraction of this,
at the time and still today, was the opportunity to expand my investment
horizons substantially and blend company-specific work with a much broader
understanding of how markets and economies work and interact.
MOI: When it comes to stock selection, what are the key criteria you look for in
potential investments?
Lambert: In general, we look for investments in areas that for one reason or
other are seeing particularly depressed sentiment or are simply out of favor.
Within this framework, we also like stocks with a particularly strong internal
dynamic, meaning they are to a greater-than-normal extent in control of their
own destiny. This usually leads us to recovery or turnaround situations where
the company is undertaking a number of different actions to rehabilitate itself
following a period of often dramatic underperformance. As a result they are
often perceived as low-quality businesses. Moreover, we like to see a strong
sense of change within the business, obvious examples of which would be the
divisional structure of the company, the balance sheet and senior management.
Unsurprisingly, these situations can offer considerable upside should the
company execute the turnaround successfully. In the simplest terms you could
say we look to exploit mean reversion.
MOI: How do you assess the quality and incentives of management?
Lambert: When considering management, we find humility and conservatism
to be important qualities. A strong track record of achievement in directly
comparable areas is obviously also nice to have. More often than not, we are
“In light of the underlying
cash generation potential and
asset value of [BP], we feel it
is significantly undervalued at
the current price.”
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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seeing new management teams in companies where the previous incumbents
have failed operationally or strategically, and hence assessing the abilities and
direction of the new team becomes a critical task. There are no hard and fast
rules, but we would be wary of those appearing overly confident or those for
whom the share price appears to be more important than the business.
MOI: How do you generate investment ideas?
Lambert: The principal method of idea generation is through the use of very
long-term performance charts, which help to identify areas of currently
depressed sentiment and hence probable low valuations. Ideas also come
through more quantitative screening, subscription to quality newsletters like the
MOI and general reading. It is best described as eclectic, and there are no hard
criteria for qualification as a potential idea or inclusion in the portfolio.
MOI: What are your favorite hunting grounds for investments in the current
environment? Do you see value in Japan and, if so, how do you approach that
market?
Lambert: One of the attractions of our approach is that there will always be
areas that are out of favor, that offer value, and there will always be companies
that are experiencing a period of underperformance that has the potential to be
reversed. Hence we find opportunities in a wide range of industries and
geographies at any one time, since ideas are much more often than not generated
at a stock-specific level.
We do see value in Japan at the moment, and see high quality companies
that are very cheaply priced in comparison with Western equivalents. Valuations
have descended to levels comparable with or below Western markets, balance
sheets are strong and corporates are being forced to undertake restructuring and
business reorganizations more actively than ever before. Nevertheless, Western
investors remain largely apathetic to this and hence the region appears to us to
offer significant value.
We don’t approach the market differently to any other, and if anything our
investment style is even more weighted to a bottom-up approach. We still
attempt to find companies that are either significantly below their intrinsic value,
have strong turnaround potential or ideally both together.
MOI: Would you outline the summary thesis behind one or two of your best
ideas at this time?
Lambert: Two such ideas at present would be BP (London/NYSE: BP) and
Cable & Wireless Worldwide (London: CWC), both in the UK.
At BP, we feel the company has clearly had a cathartic shock following the Gulf
of Mexico incident, which has led to new management and hopefully in time a
new culture as well. This has had the benefit of allowing new management a
much freer hand in terms of the strategic direction of the group. In light of the
underlying cash generation potential and asset value of the company, we feel it
is significantly undervalued at the current price.
For Cable & Wireless Worldwide, this is a classic example of what we look for.
Essentially the company has been mismanaged for a decade, and with old
management finally cleared out, we feel a new start is in the cards. The
company’s assets appear materially undervalued at the current highly depressed
“[Cable & Wireless’] assets
appear materially
undervalued at the current
highly depressed share price,
in particular their UK
network, their subsea
network internationally, their
high-growth hosting business
and substantial tax assets, to
name just a few. We believe a
much sharper focus on cash
flow, and operational
performance, will reveal the
value of these assets in time.”
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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share price, in particular their UK network, their subsea network internationally,
their high-growth hosting business and substantial tax assets, to name just a few.
We believe a much sharper focus on cash flow, and operational performance,
will reveal the value of these assets in time. In the meantime, the depressed
share price means the company could clearly be of interest to larger acquirers,
with reported expressions of interest in both individual assets and the entire
company in recent months.
MOI: In investing, good ideas are only one piece of the success equation.
Skilled portfolio management is indispensable. What are the biggest challenges
you face as a portfolio manager? How do you manage risk?
Lambert: One of the biggest challenges in our style is to manage the position
size appropriately, since this is a key means both of controlling stock-specific
risks and capturing performance from the best ideas within the portfolio.
Recovery and restructuring situations can be long, drawn out processes that
rarely develop in a straight line, so timing the entry and when to raise the
holding to a meaningful exposure become critical success factors. In this regard
we tend to start with small positions and grow them when we get greater
confidence in the trajectory of the recovery.
MOI: How has market volatility over the past few years affected your
investment process, and have you tweaked your approach in any way as a result?
Lambert: Market conditions have generally not favored our style of investing
over recent years, so it has necessarily become somewhat more pragmatic. This
essentially means we have blended our instinctive restructuring and recovery
bias with higher quality and more naturally resilient businesses. In so doing, we
have learned that value can be found right across the quality spectrum, and not
just in the most beaten-down and unloved names.
MOI: What is the single biggest mistake investors make?
Lambert: Compared to most professions, investors suffer a distinct lack of
useful information and feedback that would enable them to improve their
processes and, ultimately, results. Knowing where and how to make small
improvements across the range of skills required to deliver better returns is
difficult to do, and consequently it is often put to one side and forgotten. This
would be a mistake. A greater effort to understand one’s strengths and
weaknesses as an investor, by deconstructing and measuring your process as
thoroughly as possible, is something the thoughtful individual should constantly
be striving for. Process analytics and improvement should be a core part of any
investment process!
MOI: What books have stood out to you in recent years?
Lambert: There is a clear winner in this category. Howard Marks’ The Most
Important Thing was for me the most concise and insightful reference guide to
value investing that I have yet found. Practically every page contains a nugget of
thoughtful and indispensable advice. Moreover, what we found particularly
resonant was the idea that a quality company is not synonymous with a good
investment, and that few assets are so bad they can’t be a good investment if
bought cheaply enough.
MOI: John, thanks very much for sharing your ideas and insights.
“Knowing where and how to
make small improvements
across the range of skills
required to deliver better
returns is difficult to do, and
consequently it is often put to
one side and forgotten. This
would be a mistake.”
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Online Only: Three Exclusive Interviews The second annual VALUEx Zurich/Klosters gathering of value investors took
place in early February in Switzerland (www.valuex.ch). We had the pleasure of
learning from some of the most thoughtful investors in the business, including
Guy Spier, Bryan Lawrence, Whitney Tilson, Colin Moran, Massimo Fuggetta,
Simon Denison-Smith, and Ciccio Azzollini, to name a few. We are pleased to
share with you exclusive video interviews with the latter three fund managers.
To watch the video interviews, visit The Manual of Ideas Members Area at
http://members.manualofideas.com or click on the links below.
Watch our interview with Ciccio Azzollini, CEO of Cattolica Partecipazioni at http://youtu.be/Kp0-QIqfqWI
Watch our interview with value investment manager Massimo Fuggetta at http://youtu.be/Kc93t3N48oc
Watch our interview with Jonathan Mills and Simon Denison-Smith, investment managers of the London-based Metropolis Valuefund,http://youtu.be/RCfxtmxlfco
If you have never before logged into the online Members Area, click here to set up your member profile or type the following into your browser: http://members.manualofideas.com/?xgi=4HCgDaXOxu6DMn
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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50+ Portfolios With Signal Value™ Revealing the Top Ideas of Top Investors
“Signal value” as opposed to “noise.” We present the
holdings of some of the world’s top investors. We look for
investors who have amassed impressive track records over
long periods of time. We choose these investors carefully
to avoid the noise inherent in most 13F-HR filings.
The following analysis is based on Schedules 13F-HR
(institutional holdings report) filed with the SEC for the most
recent quarter, as well as Schedules 13G or 13D and Forms 3
or 4 filed subsequent to the end of the quarter.
MOI Signal Rank answers the question, “What are
this investor’s top ten ideas right now?” Rather than
simply presenting each investor’s largest holdings as of the
recently filed quarter end, the MOI’s proprietary
methodology ranks the companies in each investor’s
portfolio based on the investor’s current level of conviction
in each holding, as judged by the MOI.
Our proprietary methodology takes into account a
number of variables, including the size of a position in an
investor’s portfolio, the size of a position relative to the
market value of the corresponding company, the most recent
quarterly change in the number of shares owned, and the
change in the stock price of a position since the most recent
quarterly filing date.
For example, an investor might have the most
conviction in a position that is only the tenth-largest
position in such investor’s portfolio. This might be the
case if an investor invests in a small company, resulting in
a holding that is simply too small to rank highly based on
size alone. On the other hand, such a holding might
represent 19.9% of the shares outstanding of the subject
company, suggesting a high level of conviction. Our
estimate of the conviction level would rise further if the
subject company has a 20% poison-pill threshold, thereby
suggesting that the investor has bought as much of the
subject company as is practically feasible.
Bill Ackman, Pershing Square
Chuck Akre, Akre Capital
Zeke Ashton, Centaur Capital
Jonathan Auerbach, Hound Partners
Brian Bares, Bares Capital
Bruce Berkowitz, Fairholme
Richard Breeden, Breeden Capital
Tom Brown, Second Curve
Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway
Francis Chou, Chou Associates
Chase Coleman, Tiger Global
James Crichton, Scout
Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg, Leucadia
Boykin Curry, Eagle
Charles de Vaulx, Int’l Value Advisors
David Einhorn, Greenlight
Phil Falcone, Harbinger
Alan Fournier, Pennant
Glenn Fuhrman and John Phelan, MSD Capital
Jeffrey Gates, Gates Capital
Tom Gayner, Markel Gayner
Kian Ghazi, Hawkshaw
Ed Gilhuly and Scott Stuart, Sageview
Glenn Greenberg, Brave Warrior
Mason Hawkins, Southeastern
Lance Helfert and Paul Orfalea, West Coast
Chris Hohn, Children’s Investment Fund
Carl Icahn, Icahn
Robert Jaffe, Force Capital
Rehan Jaffer, H Partners
Robert Karr, Joho Capital
Seth Klarman, Baupost
Eddie Lampert, ESL Investments
Quincy Lee, Teton Capital
Dan Loeb, Third Point
Steve Mandel, Lone Pine
Sandy Nairn, Edinburgh Partners
Mohnish Pabrai, Pabrai Funds
John Paulson, Paulson & Co.
Boone Pickens, BP Capital
Mark Rachesky, MHR
Lisa Rapuano, Lane Five
Larry Robbins, Glenview
Alexander Roepers, Atlantic Investment
Wilbur Ross, WL Ross
Toby Symonds, Altai Capital
David Tepper, Appaloosa
Steve Tananbaum, GoldenTree
Jeffrey Ubben, ValueAct
Ed Wachenheim, Deephaven
Prem Watsa, Fairfax
Wally Weitz, Weitz Funds
David Winters, Wintergreen
Meryl Witmer, Eagle Value
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Akre Capital (Chuck Akre) Chuck Akre has been in the investment business since 1968. While sometimes viewed as a small cap growth manager, Akre follows a value strategy that focuses on returns on equity, management quality and cash flow-oriented valuation analysis.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Akre Capital
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Ross Stores / ROST 11,878 51.95 9% 1,501 >100% <1% 12% 18x 16x 8.2x
2 Markel / MKL 3,925 407.96 -2% 135 2% 1% 8% 26x 25x 1.6x
3 Dollar Tree / DLTR 10,335 86.83 4% 734 2% <1% 10% 22x 18x 8.1x
4 American Tower / AMT 24,875 63.29 5% 1,387 1% <1% 13% 77x 41x n/m
5 MasterCard / MA 50,284 396.14 6% 192 2% <1% 12% 18x 15x >9.9x
6 Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A 194,903 117,980 3% 0 >100% <1% 4% 17x 15x 2.0x
7 Enstar Group / ESGR 1,403 97.01 -1% 492 5% 3% 7% 9x 8x 1.3x
8 Primo Water / PRMW 69 2.91 -4% 477 >100% 2% 0% n/m 11x 1.4x
9 CarMax / KMX 6,777 29.91 -2% 806 0% <1% 4% 17x 16x 2.6x
10 O’Reilly Automotive / ORLY 10,709 83.45 4% 550 2% <1% 7% 19x 16x 5.1x
Top Holdings of Akre Capital – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 American Tower / AMT 24,875 63.29 5% 1,387 1% <1% 13% 77x 41x n/m
2 Ross Stores / ROST 11,878 51.95 9% 1,501 >100% <1% 12% 18x 16x 8.2x
3 MasterCard / MA 50,284 396.14 6% 192 2% <1% 12% 18x 15x >9.9x
4 Dollar Tree / DLTR 10,335 86.83 4% 734 2% <1% 10% 22x 18x 8.1x
5 Markel / MKL 3,925 407.96 -2% 135 2% 1% 8% 26x 25x 1.6x
6 Enstar Group / ESGR 1,403 97.01 -1% 492 5% 3% 7% 9x 8x 1.3x
7 O’Reilly Automotive / ORLY 10,709 83.45 4% 550 2% <1% 7% 19x 16x 5.1x
8 Lamar Advertising / LAMR 2,956 31.80 16% 1,282 -11% 1% 6% >99x >99x n/m
9 Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A 194,903 117,980 3% 0 >100% <1% 4% 17x 15x 2.0x
10 CarMax / KMX 6,777 29.91 -2% 806 0% <1% 4% 17x 16x 2.6x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Exxon Mobil / XOM Middleburg Financial / MBRG
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $654 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 83%
Median market value $9.3 billion
Average market value $46 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 18x
Median P/E (next FY) 15x
Median P / tangible book 2.7x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services56%
Financial40%
Technology2%
Other2%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Altai Capital (Toby Symonds) Altai Capital was founded in 2009 by Rishi Bajaj, formerly of Greenwich-based Silver Point Capital, Toby Symonds, formerly of Stamford-based SAC Capital, and Steve Tesoriere, formerly of New York-based Anchorage Capital. The firm manages a highly concentrated portfolio of high-conviction, value-oriented equity investment ideas.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Altai Capital
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 McMoRan Exploration / MMR 2,189 13.57 -7% 3,566 51% 2% 17% n/m n/m 1.3x
2 MEMC Electronic / WFR 1,242 5.39 37% 6,138 50% 3% 12% 18x 19x .7x
3 Energy XXI / EXXI 2,877 37.60 18% 1,134 10% 1% 15% 10x 8x 2.4x
4 Dynegy / DYN 203 1.65 -40% 6,313 40% 5% 4% n/m n/m .1x
5 ReachLocal / RLOC 250 8.51 38% 1,075 63% 4% 3% n/m n/m 7.7x
6 IntraLinks / IL 354 6.52 4% 1,666 -20% 3% 4% 15x 14x n/m
7 Leap Wireless / LEAP 715 9.09 -2% 1,180 -34% 2% 4% n/m n/m n/m
8 Six Flags / SIX 2,591 47.08 14% 2,420 -29% 4% 40% 84x 64x n/m
Top Holdings of Altai Capital – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Six Flags / SIX 2,591 47.08 14% 2,420 -29% 4% 40% 84x 64x n/m
2 McMoRan Exploration / MMR 2,189 13.57 -7% 3,566 51% 2% 17% n/m n/m 1.3x
3 Energy XXI / EXXI 2,877 37.60 18% 1,134 10% 1% 15% 10x 8x 2.4x
4 MEMC Electronic / WFR 1,242 5.39 37% 6,138 50% 3% 12% 18x 19x .7x
5 IntraLinks / IL 354 6.52 4% 1,666 -20% 3% 4% 15x 14x n/m
6 Leap Wireless / LEAP 715 9.09 -2% 1,180 -34% 2% 4% n/m n/m n/m
7 Dynegy / DYN 203 1.65 -40% 6,313 40% 5% 4% n/m n/m .1x
8 ReachLocal / RLOC 250 8.51 38% 1,075 63% 4% 3% n/m n/m 7.7x
9 iSoftStone / ISS 561 10.10 15% 418 -90% <1% 1% 18x 13x 2.8x
10 RealD / RLD 648 11.90 50% 68 -90% <1% 0% 25x 28x 3.7x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
None Blue Coat Systems / BCSI
Eastman Kodak / EK
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $284 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 100%
Median market value $715 million
Average market value $1.2 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 18x
Median P/E (next FY) 19x
Median P / tangible book 2.6x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services49%
Energy33%
Technology16%
Other2%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Ancient Art / Teton (Quincy Lee) Quincy Lee is an Austin, Texas-based value investor who is said to have compounded capital in his Teton investment partnership at an annual rate well in excess of 20%, net of fees.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Teton Capital / Ancient Art
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Penn National Gaming / PENN 3,244 41.47 9% 342 new <1% 7% 19x 15x 8.4x
2 Apple / AAPL 460,050 493.42 22% 50 new <1% 11% 12x 10x 5.4x
3 Google / GOOG 197,003 605.91 -6% 40 23% <1% 11% 14x 12x 4.0x
4 Valeant Pharma / VRX 14,310 47.91 3% 406 7% <1% 9% n/a n/a n/m
5 Dell / DELL 31,888 17.75 21% 641 new <1% 5% 8x 9x >9.9x
6 Charter Comms / CHTR 6,306 58.59 3% 79 new <1% 2% n/m >99x n/m
7 BofI Holding / BOFI 190 16.66 3% 569 0% 5% 4% 8x 8x 1.1x
8 Teekay Corp. / TK 1,809 26.33 -1% 334 49% <1% 4% n/m n/m 1.8x
9 Level 3 Comms / LVLT 4,392 21.15 24% 295 new <1% 3% n/m n/m n/m
10 Credit Acceptance / CACC 2,379 92.67 13% 130 0% <1% 6% 11x 10x 4.4x
Top Holdings of Teton Capital / Ancient Art – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Apple / AAPL 460,050 493.42 22% 50 new <1% 11% 12x 10x 5.4x
2 Google / GOOG 197,003 605.91 -6% 40 23% <1% 11% 14x 12x 4.0x
3 Microsoft / MSFT 255,877 30.50 17% 645 -22% <1% 9% 11x 10x 6.1x
4 Valeant Pharma / VRX 14,310 47.91 3% 406 7% <1% 9% n/a n/a n/m
5 Penn National Gaming / PENN 3,244 41.47 9% 342 new <1% 7% 19x 15x 8.4x
6 Credit Acceptance / CACC 2,379 92.67 13% 130 0% <1% 6% 11x 10x 4.4x
7 CBS / CBS 19,597 29.90 10% 384 -20% <1% 5% 16x 13x n/m
8 Dell / DELL 31,888 17.75 21% 641 new <1% 5% 8x 9x >9.9x
9 Liberty Global / LBTYA 13,172 48.55 18% 214 0% <1% 5% n/m 32x n/m
10 BofI Holding / BOFI 190 16.66 3% 569 0% 5% 4% 8x 8x 1.1x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Apple / AAPL
Bank of America / BAC
Charter Comms / CHTR
Chemtura / CHMT
Dell / DELL
Level 3 Comms / LVLT
Penn National Gaming / PENN
Aon / AON
Bancorp / TBBK
Clear Channel / CCO
NXP Semiconductors / NXPI
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $213 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 74%
Median market value $4.4 billion
Average market value $46 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 14x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 1.8x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology37%
Services28%
Financial15%
Other19%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Appaloosa (David Tepper) Tepper heads Appaloosa Management, which he founded in 1993 after leaving Goldman Sachs, where he had been the head trader on Goldman’s high-yield desk. Tepper’s specialty is in distressed investments and special situations.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Appaloosa
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Apple / AAPL 460,050 493.42 22% 182 >100% <1% 10% 12x 10x 5.4x
2 Boston Scientific / BSX 8,785 5.93 11% 7,798 new <1% 5% 14x 12x n/m
3 Oracle / ORCL 143,211 28.50 11% 1,219 new <1% 4% 12x 11x >9.9x
4 Royal Bank Scotland / RBS 26,145 8.77 38% 11,119 0% <1% 11% n/a n/a .3x
5 Dean Foods / DF 1,964 10.69 -5% 6,179 -22% 3% 8% 15x 12x n/m
6 Calumet Specialty / CLMT 1,147 22.26 10% 1,289 -3% 3% 3% 19x 11x 2.5x
7 Goodyear Tire / GT 3,392 13.88 -2% 6,057 -45% 2% 10% 7x 6x >9.9x
8 Hartford Financial / HIG 8,806 19.90 22% 1,275 -5% <1% 3% 6x 5x .4x
8 Hartford Financial / HIG 8,806 19.90 22% 1,275 -5% <1% 3% 6x 5x .4x
10 Delphi Automotive / DLPH 9,861 30.04 39% 229 new <1% 1% 8x 7x 9.0x
Top Holdings of Appaloosa – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 CVR Energy / CVI 2,346 27.10 45% 5,005 -21% 6% 16% 7x 8x 2.3x
2 Royal Bank Scotland / RBS 26,145 8.77 38% 11,119 0% <1% 11% n/a n/a .3x
3 Apple / AAPL 460,050 493.42 22% 182 >100% <1% 10% 12x 10x 5.4x
4 Goodyear Tire / GT 3,392 13.88 -2% 6,057 -45% 2% 10% 7x 6x >9.9x
5 Dean Foods / DF 1,964 10.69 -5% 6,179 -22% 3% 8% 15x 12x n/m
6 Boston Scientific / BSX 8,785 5.93 11% 7,798 new <1% 5% 14x 12x n/m
7 Oracle / ORCL 143,211 28.50 11% 1,219 new <1% 4% 12x 11x >9.9x
8 Calumet Specialty / CLMT 1,147 22.26 10% 1,289 -3% 3% 3% 19x 11x 2.5x
9 US Airways / LCC 1,435 8.85 75% 3,238 -65% 2% 3% 4x 4x n/m
10 Mueller Water / MWA 468 2.99 23% 9,442 -11% 6% 3% n/m 43x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Boston Scientific / BSXDelphi Automotive / DLPHOracle / ORCL
AMR Corp. (AMR)Applied Materials / AMATBP / BPCitigroup / CDana Holding / DANDelta Air Lines / DALE*Trade Financial / ETFCGoogle / GOOGHollyFrontier / HFCKB Home / KBHKLA-Tencor / KLACLam Research / LRCX
Micron Technology / MUMosaic Company / MOSNavistar / NAVOwens Corning / OCPulte Homes / PHMRyland Group / RYLSuperMedia / SPMDTemple-Inland / TINTeradyne / TERTesoro / TSOWestern Refining / WNR
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $864 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 74%
Median market value $6.1 billion
Average market value $35 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 11x
Median P/E (next FY) 10x
Median P / tangible book 2.3x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Energy22%
Financial17%
Technology17%
Other44%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Atlantic Investment (Alexander Roepers) Alexander Roepers founded Atlantic in 1988. In an interview with hedgefundnews.com Roepers described himself as “family-oriented, persistent, disciplined, optimistic and trying hard to not take himself (or life’s travail) too seriously.”
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Atlantic Investment Management
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Joy Global / JOY 8,970 83.75 12% 2,230 new 2% 15% 11x 10x 7.9x
2 Energizer Holdings / ENR 5,021 76.13 -2% 2,248 23% 3% 14% 12x 11x n/m
3 Flowserve / FLS 6,409 115.35 16% 1,614 33% 3% 15% 15x 13x 5.6x
4 Kennametal / KMT 3,508 43.98 20% 3,300 new 4% 12% 11x 10x 3.7x
5 Owens Illinois / OI 3,992 24.28 25% 8,240 3% 5% 17% 9x 8x n/m
6 Harman International / HAR 3,499 49.85 31% 590 new <1% 2% 17x 13x 2.7x
7 Rockwood Holdings / ROC 4,155 54.02 37% 600 new <1% 3% 14x 13x n/m
8 Crown Holdings / CCK 5,669 37.50 12% 748 4% <1% 2% 12x 11x n/m
9 Crane Co. / CR 2,831 48.68 4% 369 30% <1% 1% 13x 11x >9.9x
10 TRW Automotive / TRW 5,120 41.38 27% 300 71% <1% 1% 6x 7x 9.2x
Top Holdings of Atlantic Investment Management – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Owens Illinois / OI 3,992 24.28 25% 8,240 3% 5% 17% 9x 8x n/m
2 Joy Global / JOY 8,970 83.75 12% 2,230 new 2% 15% 11x 10x 7.9x
3 Flowserve / FLS 6,409 115.35 16% 1,614 33% 3% 15% 15x 13x 5.6x
4 Energizer Holdings / ENR 5,021 76.13 -2% 2,248 23% 3% 14% 12x 11x n/m
5 Ashland / ASH 5,019 64.10 12% 2,535 -16% 3% 13% 11x 9x n/m
6 Kennametal / KMT 3,508 43.98 20% 3,300 new 4% 12% 11x 10x 3.7x
7 Rockwood Holdings / ROC 4,155 54.02 37% 600 new <1% 3% 14x 13x n/m
8 Harman International / HAR 3,499 49.85 31% 590 new <1% 2% 17x 13x 2.7x
9 Crown Holdings / CCK 5,669 37.50 12% 748 4% <1% 2% 12x 11x n/m
10 Solutia / SOA 3,419 27.97 62% 760 1% <1% 2% 13x 11x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Harman International / HAR
Joy Global / JOY
Kennametal / KMT
Rockwood Holdings / ROC
Curtiss-Wright Corp. / CW
Jarden Corp. / JAH
McKesson / MCK
Nalco Holding / NLC
Newell Rubbermaid / NWL
Stanley Black Decker / SWK
Timken / TKR
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $1.2 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 96%
Median maret value $5.0 billion
Average market value $6.5 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 12x
Median P/E (next FY) 11x
Median P / tangible book 5.6x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Capital Goods43%
Basic Materials38%
Technology14%
Other5%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Bares Capital (Brian Bares) Brian Bares started his investment firm, Bares Capital Management, in 2000, focusing initially on micro-cap public companies. The firm launched a small-cap institutional strategy in 2001 and now manages assets in two value-oriented strategies. Bares Capital Management is quite unique in the institutional asset management world, as it has adhered to a disciplined business strategy, limiting the growth of assets under management to benefit investment performance. Bares is author of The Small-Cap Advantage: How Top Endowments and Foundations Turn Small Stocks into Big Returns.
*
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Bares Capital Management
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 INTL FCStone / INTL 427 22.51 -4% 2,783 1% 15% 15% 9x n/a 1.8x
2 Utah Medical / UTMD 109 29.95 11% 413 1% 11% 3% 15x 13x n/m
3 Female Health / FHCO 147 5.25 16% 4,140 3% 15% 5% n/a n/a 8.6x
4 Dolan Media / DM 324 10.58 24% 3,013 15% 10% 8% 26x 18x n/m
5 Tandy Leather / TLF 52 5.10 5% 1,647 0% 16% 2% n/a n/a 1.6x
6 Winmark / WINA 305 61.28 7% 849 0% 17% 12% n/a n/a >9.9x
7 Interactive Intell. / ININ 520 27.53 20% 2,240 1% 12% 15% 32x 25x 5.6x
8 American Public Ed. / APEI 725 40.65 -6% 413 12% 2% 4% 20x 17x 6.0x
9 Colfax / CFX 2,843 33.57 18% 482 15% <1% 4% 21x 16x >9.9x
10 Hallmark Financial / HALL 132 6.84 -2% 1,907 0% 10% 3% n/m >99x .9x
Top Holdings of Bares Capital Management – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 INTL FCStone / INTL 427 22.51 -4% 2,783 1% 15% 15% 9x n/a 1.8x
2 Interactive Intell. / ININ 520 27.53 20% 2,240 1% 12% 15% 32x 25x 5.6x
3 Winmark / WINA 305 61.28 7% 849 0% 17% 12% n/a n/a >9.9x
4 Dolan Media / DM 324 10.58 24% 3,013 15% 10% 8% 26x 18x n/m
5 Female Health / FHCO 147 5.25 16% 4,140 3% 15% 5% n/a n/a 8.6x
6 American Public Ed. / APEI 725 40.65 -6% 413 12% 2% 4% 20x 17x 6.0x
7 Stratasys / SSYS 766 36.15 19% 460 16% 2% 4% 30x 26x 5.8x
8 Colfax / CFX 2,843 33.57 18% 482 15% <1% 4% 21x 16x >9.9x
9 Stamps.com / STMP 455 30.29 16% 457 -42% 3% 3% 23x 18x 4.9x
10 Hallmark Financial / HALL 132 6.84 -2% 1,907 0% 10% 3% n/m >99x .9x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Kinder Morgan Mgmt / KMR
Travelzoo / TZOO
American Dental / ADPI
BIDZ.com / BIDZ
Level 3 Comms / LVLT
OneBeacon Insurance / OB
Winthrop Realty / FUR
Portfolio Metrics**
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $418 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 73%
Median market value $964 million
Average market value $18 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 18x
Median P/E (next FY) 15x
Median P / tangible book 2.3x
*Email [email protected] to request a free copy of Brian’s book.
**Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Financial32%
Technology24%
Services22%
Other23%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Baupost (Seth Klarman) Seth Klarman, founder and president of The Baupost Group, is the author of Margin of Safety and one of the most widely respected value-oriented investors. Since inception in February 1983, The Baupost Group has delivered a compounded annual return of approximately 20%.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Baupost
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Targacept / TRGT 203 6.07 9% 6,000 new 18% 1% n/m n/m 1.1x
2 AVEO Pharma / AVEO 590 13.65 -21% 5,085 2% 12% 2% 20x n/m 2.4x
3 Theravance / THRX 1,407 16.53 -25% 14,226 0% 17% 7% n/m n/m n/m
4 News Corp. / NWSA 47,979 19.18 8% 25,700 1% 1% 14% 14x 11x >9.9x
5 Syneron Medical / ELOS 368 10.56 -5% 4,000 0% 11% 1% 30x 19x 2.0x
6 ViaSat / VSAT 1,937 45.22 -2% 10,500 0% 25% 14% 52x 48x 2.6x
7 Enzon Pharma / ENZN 359 7.43 11% 9,001 0% 19% 2% n/a n/a 1.8x
8 Alliance One / AOI 266 3.04 12% 8,787 0% 10% 1% 8x n/a .9x
9 Microsoft / MSFT 255,877 30.50 17% 12,000 0% <1% 11% 11x 10x 6.1x
10 Idenix Pharma / IDIX 1,153 10.92 47% 5,665 >100% 5% 2% n/m n/m n/m
Top Holdings of Baupost – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 BP / BP 147,159 46.35 8% 12,000 -13% <1% 16% 7x 7x 1.9x
2 Hewlett-Packard / HPQ 56,721 28.70 11% 18,750 -10% <1% 16% 7x 6x n/m
3 News Corp. / NWSA 47,979 19.18 8% 25,700 1% 1% 14% 14x 11x >9.9x
4 ViaSat / VSAT 1,937 45.22 -2% 10,500 0% 25% 14% 52x 48x 2.6x
5 Microsoft / MSFT 255,877 30.50 17% 12,000 0% <1% 11% 11x 10x 6.1x
6 Theravance / THRX 1,407 16.53 -25% 14,226 0% 17% 7% n/m n/m n/m
7 Allied Nevada Gold / ANV 3,044 34.07 13% 4,013 15% 4% 4% 92x 20x 5.6x
8 Genworth Financial / GNW 4,288 8.74 33% 10,000 0% 2% 3% 7x 5x .3x
9 AVEO Pharma / AVEO 590 13.65 -21% 5,085 2% 12% 2% 20x n/m 2.4x
10 Enzon Pharma / ENZN 359 7.43 11% 9,001 0% 19% 2% n/a n/a 1.8x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Targacept / TRGT BreitBurn Energy / BBEP
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*, **
Portfolio size $3.4 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 88%
Median market value $1.2 billion
Average market value $24 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 11x
Median P/E (next FY) 11x
Median P / tangible book 1.9x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**A predominant portion of assets managed by Seth Klarman may be invested
in non-equity securities and is therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
Technology40%
Health Care18%
Energy16%
Other26%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) Warren Buffett has built an unparalleled investment track record over several decades, becoming widely regarded as the best investor of all time. Buffett has embraced a long term-oriented investment approach with an emphasis on investing in companies with durable competitive advantage, high returns on capital employed, and shareholder-friendly management.Berkshire has hired Todd Combs and Ted Weschler to help Buffett manage the portfolio and succeed him eventually.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Berkshire Hathaway
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 IBM / IBM 226,790 192.42 5% 63,906 11% 5% 18% 13x 12x n/m
2 Wells Fargo / WFC 159,577 30.26 10% 383,704 6% 7% 17% 9x 8x 1.8x
3 Procter & Gamble / PG 175,951 63.88 -4% 76,766 0% 3% 7% 16x 15x n/m
4 Coca-Cola / KO 154,308 67.94 -3% 200,000 0% 9% 20% 17x 15x >9.9x
5 Washington Post / WPO 3,003 389.02 3% 1,728 0% 22% 1% 18x 23x 5.0x
6 American Express / AXP 60,176 51.81 10% 151,611 0% 13% 11% 12x 11x 3.2x
7 Moody’s / MCO 8,534 38.44 14% 28,415 0% 13% 2% 15x 13x n/m
8 USG / USG 1,473 13.99 38% 17,072 0% 16% 0% n/m n/m 9.4x
9 DIRECTV / DTV 32,111 45.51 6% 20,348 >100% 3% 1% 13x 10x n/m
10 ConocoPhillips / COP 95,929 72.25 -1% 29,101 0% 2% 3% 9x 8x 1.6x
Top Holdings of Berkshire Hathaway – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Coca-Cola / KO 154,308 67.94 -3% 200,000 0% 9% 20% 17x 15x >9.9x
2 IBM / IBM 226,790 192.42 5% 63,906 11% 5% 18% 13x 12x n/m
3 Wells Fargo / WFC 159,577 30.26 10% 383,704 6% 7% 17% 9x 8x 1.8x
4 American Express / AXP 60,176 51.81 10% 151,611 0% 13% 11% 12x 11x 3.2x
5 Procter & Gamble / PG 175,951 63.88 -4% 76,766 0% 3% 7% 16x 15x n/m
6 Kraft Foods / KFT 68,161 38.58 3% 87,035 -3% 5% 5% 17x 15x n/m
7 Wal-Mart / WMT 211,989 61.90 4% 39,037 0% 1% 4% 14x 13x 4.5x
8 ConocoPhillips / COP 95,929 72.25 -1% 29,101 0% 2% 3% 9x 8x 1.6x
9 U.S. Bancorp / USB 55,363 29.01 7% 69,039 0% 4% 3% 11x 10x 2.8x
10 Johnson & Johnson / JNJ 176,413 64.60 -1% 29,018 -23% 1% 3% 13x 12x 6.5x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
DaVita / DVA
Liberty Media / LMCA
Exxon Mobil / XOM
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*, **
Portfolio size $69 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 90%
Median market value $56 billion
Average market value $83 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 13x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 2.9x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**A large portion of Berkshire’s asset value may be attributed to holdings that
are not publicly traded and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
Financial33%
Consumer Non-Cyclical
32%
Technology18%
Other17%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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BP Capital (Boone Pickens) Pickens, born in 1928, was a prominent corporate raider during the 1980s. He founded energy fund BP Capital in 1997.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of BP Capital
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 McMoRan Exploration / MMR 2,189 13.57 -7% 1,096 0% <1% 10% n/m n/m 1.3x
2 Chesapeake Energy / CHK 14,590 22.13 -1% 570 0% <1% 9% 8x 11x 1.1x
3 BP / BP 147,159 46.35 8% 402 0% <1% 13% 7x 7x 1.9x
4 Transocean / RIG 16,462 50.21 31% 163 new <1% 6% 34x 17x 1.3x
5 Weatherford / WFT 13,610 17.79 22% 515 0% <1% 6% 21x 12x 2.8x
6 Nat.-Oilwell Varco / NOV 35,035 82.66 22% 179 0% <1% 10% 14x 12x 4.7x
7 Golar LNG / GLNG 3,527 43.95 -1% 49 new <1% 1% 46x 22x 6.0x
8 SandRidge Energy / SD 3,107 7.46 -9% 1,181 0% <1% 6% n/m >99x 1.8x
9 Dawson Geophysical / DWSN 293 36.94 -7% 245 0% 3% 6% 18x 12x 1.5x
10 Exxon Mobil / XOM 401,671 83.80 -1% 94 0% <1% 5% 10x 9x 2.6x
Top Holdings of BP Capital – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 BP / BP 147,159 46.35 8% 402 0% <1% 13% 7x 7x 1.9x
2 McMoRan Exploration / MMR 2,189 13.57 -7% 1,096 0% <1% 10% n/m n/m 1.3x
3 Nat.-Oilwell Varco / NOV 35,035 82.66 22% 179 0% <1% 10% 14x 12x 4.7x
4 Chesapeake Energy / CHK 14,590 22.13 -1% 570 0% <1% 9% 8x 11x 1.1x
5 Weatherford / WFT 13,610 17.79 22% 515 0% <1% 6% 21x 12x 2.8x
6 Dawson Geophysical / DWSN 293 36.94 -7% 245 0% 3% 6% 18x 12x 1.5x
7 Devon Energy / DVN 26,112 64.65 4% 140 0% <1% 6% 11x 10x 1.7x
8 SandRidge Energy / SD 3,107 7.46 -9% 1,181 0% <1% 6% n/m >99x 1.8x
9 Transocean / RIG 16,462 50.21 31% 163 new <1% 6% 34x 17x 1.3x
10 Exxon Mobil / XOM 401,671 83.80 -1% 94 0% <1% 5% 10x 9x 2.6x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Golar LNG / GLNG
Transocean / RIG
EOG Resources / EOG
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*, **
Portfolio size $148 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 77%
Median market value $28 billion
Average market value $56 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 14x
Median P/E (next FY) 11x
Median P / tangible book 1.9x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**A large portion of assets managed by Boone Pickens may be invested
outside of BP Capital and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
Energy99%
Transportation1%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Brave Warrior (Glenn Greenberg) Brave Warrior, formerly called Chieftain Capital Management, was founded in 1984 by Glenn Greenberg and John Shapiro. The firm runs a concentrated portfolio focused on companies with high returns on capital and sustainable competitive advantage. Brave Warrior’s long-term performance record is believed to feature mid teens annualized investment returns.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Brave Warrior
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Google / GOOG 197,003 605.91 -6% 299 3% <1% 14% 14x 12x 4.0x
2 Valeant Pharma / VRX 14,310 47.91 3% 4,360 13% 1% 16% n/a n/a n/m
3 Comcast / CMCSA 73,362 27.18 15% 4,923 4% <1% 10% 18x 15x n/m
4 VistaPrint / VPRT 1,448 39.23 28% 2,086 new 6% 6% 22x 19x >9.9x
5 U.S. Bancorp / USB 55,363 29.01 7% 2,959 3% <1% 7% 11x 10x 2.8x
6 Oracle / ORCL 143,211 28.50 11% 1,028 new <1% 2% 12x 11x >9.9x
7 Adobe Systems / ADBE 15,905 32.21 14% 1,422 new <1% 4% 13x 12x >9.9x
8 Primerica / PRI 1,601 24.68 6% 1,684 23% 3% 3% 9x 9x 1.2x
9 Visa / V 92,635 113.90 12% 274 7% <1% 2% 19x 16x >9.9x
10 Motorola Solutions / MSI 15,430 47.40 2% 2,157 -10% <1% 8% 16x 14x 4.1x
Top Holdings of Brave Warrior – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Valeant Pharma / VRX 14,310 47.91 3% 4,360 13% 1% 16% n/a n/a n/m
2 Google / GOOG 197,003 605.91 -6% 299 3% <1% 14% 14x 12x 4.0x
3 Fiserv / FISV 9,047 64.23 9% 2,375 -7% 2% 12% 13x 11x n/m
4 Comcast / CMCSA 73,362 27.18 15% 4,923 4% <1% 10% 18x 15x n/m
5 Motorola Solutions / MSI 15,430 47.40 2% 2,157 -10% <1% 8% 16x 14x 4.1x
6 U.S. Bancorp / USB 55,363 29.01 7% 2,959 3% <1% 7% 11x 10x 2.8x
7 VistaPrint / VPRT 1,448 39.23 28% 2,086 new 6% 6% 22x 19x >9.9x
8 Aon / AON 15,699 48.56 4% 1,508 -41% <1% 6% 14x 12x n/m
9 Lab Corp. of America / LH 8,922 90.03 5% 784 -6% <1% 5% 14x 13x n/m
10 MasterCard / MA 50,284 396.14 6% 164 -40% <1% 5% 18x 15x >9.9x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Adobe Systems / ADBE
Globe Specialty / GSM
Oracle / ORCL
VistaPrint / VPRT
Wells Fargo / WFC
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $1.3 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 88%
Median market value $16 billion
Average market value $53 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 14x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 2.6x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology31%
Financial23%
Health Care21%
Other25%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Breeden Capital (Richard Breeden) Richard C. Breeden, born in 1949, is a former Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Breeden founded Breeden Capital Management in 2006. The fund applies a concentrated, activist investment approach.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Breeden Capital
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Zale / ZLC 93 2.90 -24% 5,935 0% 18% 2% n/m n/m 1.3x
2 Stanley Black Decker / SWK 12,681 75.08 11% 807 16% <1% 9% 13x 11x n/m
3 Flowserve / FLS 6,409 115.35 16% 1,026 6% 2% 17% 15x 13x 5.6x
4 Helmerich & Payne / HP 6,365 59.27 2% 1,562 0% 1% 13% 12x 10x 1.8x
5 American Science / ASEI 687 77.02 13% 388 >100% 4% 4% 26x 24x 2.6x
6 Ashland / ASH 5,019 64.10 12% 354 new <1% 3% 11x 9x n/m
7 Alliant Techsystems / ATK 1,924 58.27 2% 397 0% 1% 3% 7x 8x n/m
8 Iron Mountain / IRM 5,656 30.47 -1% 1,633 -13% <1% 7% 25x 23x n/m
9 H&R Block / HRB 4,921 16.80 3% 7,166 -8% 2% 17% 11x 10x >9.9x
10 Airgas / ARG 6,008 78.68 1% 733 -27% <1% 8% 19x 17x >9.9x
Top Holdings of Breeden Capital – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 H&R Block / HRB 4,921 16.80 3% 7,166 -8% 2% 17% 11x 10x >9.9x
2 Flowserve / FLS 6,409 115.35 16% 1,026 6% 2% 17% 15x 13x 5.6x
3 Helmerich & Payne / HP 6,365 59.27 2% 1,562 0% 1% 13% 12x 10x 1.8x
4 Stanley Black Decker / SWK 12,681 75.08 11% 807 16% <1% 9% 13x 11x n/m
5 Airgas / ARG 6,008 78.68 1% 733 -27% <1% 8% 19x 17x >9.9x
6 Steris / STE 1,807 31.35 5% 1,771 -65% 3% 8% 14x 14x 4.0x
7 Iron Mountain / IRM 5,656 30.47 -1% 1,633 -13% <1% 7% 25x 23x n/m
8 Dun & Bradstreet / DNB 3,829 78.77 5% 594 -40% 1% 7% 12x 11x n/m
9 American Science / ASEI 687 77.02 13% 388 >100% 4% 4% 26x 24x 2.6x
10 Alliant Techsystems / ATK 1,924 58.27 2% 397 0% 1% 3% 7x 8x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Ashland / ASH Aon / AON
EMCOR Group / EME
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $694 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 94%
Median market value $5.0 billion
Average market value $5.2 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 14x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 3.3x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services27%
Capital Goods20%
Energy13%
Other39%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Centaur Value (Zeke Ashton) Zeke Ashton is founder and managing partner of Centaur Capital, a Dallas-based investment firm. Centaur Capital serves asadvisor to the Centaur family of private partnerships using a value-oriented long/short equity strategy. Centaur is also the sub-advisor to the Tilson Dividend Fund, a mutual fund utilizing an income-oriented value investing strategy.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Centaur Value Fund1, 2
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Millipore / MIL 504 8.06 15% 550 >100% <1% 6% n/a n/a .9x
2 Ancestry.com / ACOM 1,364 30.96 35% 235 42% <1% 9% 25x 20x n/m
3 Coinstar / CSTR 1,745 56.40 24% 120 0% <1% 9% 14x 12x 6.8x
4 Medtronic / MDT 41,929 39.73 4% 90 >100% <1% 4% 12x 11x >9.9x
5 Diamond Offshore / DO 8,725 62.76 14% 60 50% <1% 5% 15x 12x 2.0x
6 IDT Corp. / IDT 199 8.74 -7% 150 88% <1% 2% 58x 11x 3.8x
7 Apple / AAPL 460,050 493.42 22% 7 21% <1% 4% 12x 10x 5.4x
8 Aspen Insurance / AHL 2,002 28.33 7% 125 0% <1% 4% 10x 9x .6x
9 Activision Blizzard / ATVI 14,103 12.33 0% 420 -14% <1% 7% 13x 11x 5.1x
10 Xerox / XRX 10,986 7.92 -1% 450 -18% <1% 4% 7x 6x >9.9x1
Excludes holdings of Tilson Dividend Fund, which is also managed by Zeke Ashton. 2
Includes shares underlying LEAPs and other option positions.
Top Holdings of Centaur Value Fund – By Dollar Value1, 2
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Dell / DELL 31,888 17.75 21% 460 -8% <1% 10% 8x 9x >9.9x
2 Ancestry.com / ACOM 1,364 30.96 35% 235 42% <1% 9% 25x 20x n/m
3 Coinstar / CSTR 1,745 56.40 24% 120 0% <1% 9% 14x 12x 6.8x
4 Activision Blizzard / ATVI 14,103 12.33 0% 420 -14% <1% 7% 13x 11x 5.1x
5 Millipore / MIL 504 8.06 15% 550 >100% <1% 6% n/a n/a .9x
6 Cisco Systems / CSCO 106,953 19.90 10% 215 -54% <1% 5% 11x 10x 3.5x
7 Interactive Brokers / IBKR 711 15.61 4% 248 -10% <1% 5% 12x 10x 1.2x
8 Diamond Offshore / DO 8,725 62.76 14% 60 50% <1% 5% 15x 12x 2.0x
9 Apple / AAPL 460,050 493.42 22% 7 21% <1% 4% 12x 10x 5.4x
10 Medtronic / MDT 41,929 39.73 4% 90 >100% <1% 4% 12x 11x >9.9x1
Excludes holdings of Tilson Dividend Fund, which is also managed by Zeke Ashton. 2
Includes shares underlying LEAPs and other option positions.
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Genie Energy / GNE (spun off from IDT)
Medtronic / MDTMillipore / MIL
Alleghany / YBig Lots / BIGBiglari Holdings / BHGap / GPS
Himax Tech / HIMXP.F. Chang’s / PFCBTransatlantic Petro / TATWestern Digital / WDC
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $80 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 64%
Median market value $1.7 billion
Average market value $25 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 14x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 1.8x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology63%
Financial18%
Health Care12%
Other7%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Centerbridge (Jeffrey Aronson and Mark Gallogly) Centerbridge, founded in 2006, engages in private and public equity as well as distressed debt investing. Prior to founding Centerbridge, Jeffrey Aronson headed distressed debt investing at Angelo, Gordon & Co., while Mark Gallogly ran a telecom and media buyout fund at Blackstone Group. For additional background, see http://bit.ly/pSlbTF and http://bit.ly/qpJ26Z
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Centerbridge Partners
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Delphi Automotive / DLPH 9,861 30.04 39% 12,116 new 4% 28% 8x 7x 9.0x
2 Visteon Corp. / VC 2,650 51.44 3% 2,107 >100% 4% 8% 13x 12x 2.6x
3 Starwood Hotels / HOT 10,874 55.67 16% 1,550 >100% <1% 7% 24x 21x >9.9x
4 BankUnited / BKU 2,221 22.83 4% 10,768 0% 11% 19% 13x 14x 1.5x
5 CIT Group / CIT 8,357 41.65 19% 9,397 0% 5% 30% 30x 18x 1.0x
6 Quad Graphics / QUAD 695 14.83 3% 2,229 0% 5% 3% 6x 7x 2.2x
7 General Motors / GM 39,896 25.50 26% 1,242 6% <1% 2% 7x 7x n/m
8 iStar Financial / SFI 659 6.96 32% 3,956 0% 4% 2% n/m n/m .4x
9 Penn National Gaming / PENN 3,244 41.47 9% 45 0% <1% 0% 19x 15x 8.4x
Top Holdings of Centerbridge Partners – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 CIT Group / CIT 8,357 41.65 19% 9,397 0% 5% 30% 30x 18x 1.0x
2 Delphi Automotive / DLPH 9,861 30.04 39% 12,116 new 4% 28% 8x 7x 9.0x
3 BankUnited / BKU 2,221 22.83 4% 10,768 0% 11% 19% 13x 14x 1.5x
4 Visteon Corp. / VC 2,650 51.44 3% 2,107 >100% 4% 8% 13x 12x 2.6x
5 Starwood Hotels / HOT 10,874 55.67 16% 1,550 >100% <1% 7% 24x 21x >9.9x
6 Quad Graphics / QUAD 695 14.83 3% 2,229 0% 5% 3% 6x 7x 2.2x
7 General Motors / GM 39,896 25.50 26% 1,242 6% <1% 2% 7x 7x n/m
8 iStar Financial / SFI 659 6.96 32% 3,956 0% 4% 2% n/m n/m .4x
9 Royal Bank Scotland / RBS 26,145 8.77 38% 1,508 -41% <1% 1% n/a n/a .3x
10 Walter Investment / WAC 599 21.50 5% 162 -91% <1% 0% n/m 10x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Delphi Automotive / DLPH None
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $1.3 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 100%
Median market value $3.2 billion
Average market value $9.6 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 13x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 1.9x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Financial55%Consumer
Cyclical33%
Services12%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Children’s Investment (Chris Hohn) Chris Hohn is the founder of London-based The Children’s Investment Fund Management. TCI runs a concentrated portfolio that has historically been heavily weighted in industrials. Hohn has acquired a reputation as an aggressive shareholder activist, most notably forcing the resignation of the CEO of Deutsche Boerse after he refused to abandon a proposed takeover of the London Stock Exchange. Hohn also agitated for a sale of ABN Amro, ultimately pushing it into the hands of RBS.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Children’s Investment Fund
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Royal Bank Scotland / RBS 26,145 8.77 38% 1,301 0% <1% 1% n/a n/a .3x
2 News Corp. / NWSA 47,979 19.18 8% 51,557 -4% 2% 47% 14x 11x >9.9x
3 Viacom / VIA 29,330 54.25 2% 4,283 -25% <1% 11% n/a n/a n/m
4 Walt Disney / DIS 74,293 41.45 11% 16,797 -12% <1% 33% 14x 12x >9.9x
5 WellPoint / WLP 22,322 64.17 -3% 673 -48% <1% 2% 8x 8x >9.9x
6 Oracle / ORCL 143,211 28.50 11% 1,641 -39% <1% 2% 12x 11x >9.9x
7 Union Pacific / UNP 53,590 111.63 5% 926 -74% <1% 5% 14x 12x 2.9x
Top Holdings of Children’s Investment Fund – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 News Corp. / NWSA 47,979 19.18 8% 51,557 -4% 2% 47% 14x 11x >9.9x
2 Walt Disney / DIS 74,293 41.45 11% 16,797 -12% <1% 33% 14x 12x >9.9x
3 Viacom / VIA 29,330 54.25 2% 4,283 -25% <1% 11% n/a n/a n/m
4 Union Pacific / UNP 53,590 111.63 5% 926 -74% <1% 5% 14x 12x 2.9x
5 Oracle / ORCL 143,211 28.50 11% 1,641 -39% <1% 2% 12x 11x >9.9x
6 WellPoint / WLP 22,322 64.17 -3% 673 -48% <1% 2% 8x 8x >9.9x
7 Royal Bank Scotland / RBS 26,145 8.77 38% 1,301 0% <1% 1% n/a n/a .3x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
None Kansas City Southern / KSU
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $2.1 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 100%
Median market value $39 billion
Average market value $51 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 14x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 2.9x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services90%
Transportation5%
Financial3%
Other2%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Chou Associates (Francis Chou) Francis Chou arrived in Canada from India in 1976. Over the years, he worked for Bell Canada, Gardiner Watson, and Fairfax Financial. The roots of Chou Associates date back to 1986. Today, Chou manages several investment funds and has been repeatedly ranked one of the top investment managers in Canada. He follows a deep value-oriented investment style.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Chou Associates
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Watson Pharma / WPI 7,374 57.99 -4% 635 0% <1% 8% 12x 10x n/m
2 Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A 194,903 117,980 3% 0 0% <1% 8% 17x 15x 2.0x
3 Bank of America / BAC 81,797 8.07 45% 8,950 40% <1% 17% 11x 7x .6x
4 JPMorgan Chase / JPM 142,909 37.61 13% 1,279 0% <1% 11% 8x 7x 1.2x
5 Overstock.com / OSTK 162 6.96 -11% 2,310 0% 10% 4% n/m n/m >9.9x
6 Primus Telecom / PTGI 181 13.24 5% 451 new 3% 1% n/a n/a n/m
7 RadioShack / RSH 759 7.60 -22% 1,294 29% 1% 2% 8x 10x 1.0x
8 Sanofi-Aventis / SNY 100,338 37.23 2% 410 0% <1% 3% 8x 6x n/m
9 Wells Fargo / WFC 159,577 30.26 10% 998 0% <1% 7% 9x 8x 1.8x
10 Qiao Xing Mobile / QXM 71 1.25 28% 1,584 >100% 3% 0% n/a n/a .2x
Top Holdings of Chou Associates – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Bank of America / BAC 81,797 8.07 45% 8,950 40% <1% 17% 11x 7x .6x
2 JPMorgan Chase / JPM 142,909 37.61 13% 1,279 0% <1% 11% 8x 7x 1.2x
3 AbitibiBowater / ABH 1,545 15.28 5% 2,659 -1% 3% 9% 10x 6x .5x
4 Watson Pharma / WPI 7,374 57.99 -4% 635 0% <1% 8% 12x 10x n/m
5 Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A 194,903 117,980 3% 0 0% <1% 8% 17x 15x 2.0x
6 Wells Fargo / WFC 159,577 30.26 10% 998 0% <1% 7% 9x 8x 1.8x
7 Sears Holdings / SHLD 5,084 47.57 50% 584 21% <1% 6% n/m n/m 1.6x
8 Goldman Sachs / GS 56,183 114.12 26% 165 0% <1% 4% 10x 9x .9x
9 Overstock.com / OSTK 162 6.96 -11% 2,310 0% 10% 4% n/m n/m >9.9x
10 Sanofi-Aventis / SNY 100,338 37.23 2% 410 0% <1% 3% 8x 6x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Primus Telecom / PTGI CryptoLogic / CRYP
Gannett / GCI
MannKind / MNKD
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*, **
Portfolio size $437 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 78%
Median market value $7.1 billion
Average market value $38 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 10x
Median P/E (next FY) 8x
Median P / tangible book 1.3x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**A large portion of assets managed by Francis Chou may be invested in
Canadian and other securities, which are not shown in the chart or tables.
Financial53%
Services24%
Health Care13%
Other10%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Eagle Capital (Boykin Curry) Ravenel Boykin Curry IV manages New York-based Eagle Capital Management, which started as a family investment partnership and has grown to more than $5 billion in assets invested in equities. Curry has a long term-oriented investment approach and looks for out-of-favor companies that trade at a significant discount to intrinsic value.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Eagle Capital Management
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Coca-Cola / KO 154,308 67.94 -3% 8,035 4% <1% 5% 17x 15x >9.9x
2 Aon / AON 15,699 48.56 4% 11,258 6% 3% 5% 14x 12x n/m
3 Ecolab / ECL 18,384 61.20 6% 7,966 9% 3% 5% 24x 20x >9.9x
4 Wal-Mart / WMT 211,989 61.90 4% 9,589 4% <1% 6% 14x 13x 4.5x
5 Microsoft / MSFT 255,877 30.50 17% 20,596 4% <1% 6% 11x 10x 6.1x
6 Praxair / PX 32,122 107.16 0% 4,197 3% 1% 4% 18x 16x >9.9x
7 UnitedHealth / UNH 55,718 53.32 5% 8,018 5% <1% 4% 11x 10x 2.0x
8 3M / MMM 61,072 87.14 7% 4,881 7% <1% 4% 14x 13x 8.9x
9 W.R. Berkley / WRB 4,980 36.21 5% 10,733 4% 8% 4% 14x 13x 1.3x
10 Alleghany / Y 2,621 306.00 7% 7 >100% <1% 0% 33x 27x 1.0x
Top Holdings of Eagle Capital Management – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Microsoft / MSFT 255,877 30.50 17% 20,596 4% <1% 6% 11x 10x 6.1x
2 Wal-Mart / WMT 211,989 61.90 4% 9,589 4% <1% 6% 14x 13x 4.5x
3 Aon / AON 15,699 48.56 4% 11,258 6% 3% 5% 14x 12x n/m
4 Coca-Cola / KO 154,308 67.94 -3% 8,035 4% <1% 5% 17x 15x >9.9x
5 Ecolab / ECL 18,384 61.20 6% 7,966 9% 3% 5% 24x 20x >9.9x
6 Comcast / CMCSA 73,362 27.18 15% 17,933 -19% <1% 5% 18x 15x n/m
7 Praxair / PX 32,122 107.16 0% 4,197 3% 1% 4% 18x 16x >9.9x
8 UnitedHealth / UNH 55,718 53.32 5% 8,018 5% <1% 4% 11x 10x 2.0x
9 3M / MMM 61,072 87.14 7% 4,881 7% <1% 4% 14x 13x 8.9x
10 News Corp. / NWSA 47,979 19.18 8% 21,095 -11% <1% 4% 14x 11x >9.9x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Charles Schwab / SCHW
Oracle / ORCL
American Public Ed. / APEI
CNA Financial / CNA
Exxon Mobil / XOM
Intel / INTC
Molex / MOLX
Nalco Holding / NLC
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $10 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 49%
Median market value $26 billion
Average market value $67 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 14x
Median P/E (next FY) 13x
Median P / tangible book 2.5x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Financial24%
Services23%
Consumer Non-Cyclical
20%
Other33%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Eagle Value (Meryl Witmer) Meryl Witmer manages New York City-based Eagle Value Partners with her husband Chuck and participates in the annual Barron’s Roundtable. She is a value-oriented equity investor and runs a concentrated portfolio.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Eagle Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Calpine / CPN 7,840 16.07 -2% 367 0% <1% 9% >99x 89x 1.8x
2 Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC 1,331 28.73 3% 373 0% <1% 16% 10x 14x n/m
3 Packaging Corp. / PKG 2,888 29.04 15% 223 0% <1% 10% 15x 13x 3.2x
4 Rockwood Holdings / ROC 4,155 54.02 37% 194 3% <1% 16% 14x 13x n/m
5 Delphi Automotive / DLPH 9,861 30.04 39% 58 new <1% 3% 8x 7x 9.0x
6 Globe Specialty / GSM 1,063 14.16 6% 375 1% <1% 8% 16x 12x 2.4x
7 Innophos / IPHS 1,053 48.69 0% 117 0% <1% 8% 13x 12x 3.6x
8 Rock-Tenn / RKT 4,803 68.04 18% 48 0% <1% 5% 13x 9x 6.2x
9 Spansion / CODE 779 13.07 58% 164 0% <1% 3% 14x 9x 4.4x
10 Black Diamond / BDE 177 8.15 9% 64 0% <1% 1% 51x 82x 2.2x
Top Holdings of Eagle Value – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC 1,331 28.73 3% 373 0% <1% 16% 10x 14x n/m
2 Rockwood Holdings / ROC 4,155 54.02 37% 194 3% <1% 16% 14x 13x n/m
3 Six Flags / SIX 2,591 47.08 14% 221 -23% <1% 15% 84x 64x n/m
4 Packaging Corp. / PKG 2,888 29.04 15% 223 0% <1% 10% 15x 13x 3.2x
5 Calpine / CPN 7,840 16.07 -2% 367 0% <1% 9% >99x 89x 1.8x
6 Innophos / IPHS 1,053 48.69 0% 117 0% <1% 8% 13x 12x 3.6x
7 Globe Specialty / GSM 1,063 14.16 6% 375 1% <1% 8% 16x 12x 2.4x
8 Rock-Tenn / RKT 4,803 68.04 18% 48 0% <1% 5% 13x 9x 6.2x
9 Spansion / CODE 779 13.07 58% 164 0% <1% 3% 14x 9x 4.4x
10 Delphi Automotive / DLPH 9,861 30.04 39% 58 new <1% 3% 8x 7x 9.0x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Delphi Automotive / DLPH AbitibiBowater / ABH
Capital One / COF
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $67 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 92%
Median market value $1.5 billion
Average market value $3.8 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 14x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 3.2x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Basic Materials53%
Services20%
Transportation17%
Other10%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Edinburgh Partners (Sandy Nairn) Sandy Nairn follows a value-oriented investment style. He developed his approach during a ten-year “apprenticeship” under famed investor Sir John Templeton.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Edinburgh Partners
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Applied Materials / AMAT 16,761 12.95 21% 16,498 4% 1% 9% 17x 11x 2.3x
2 General Dynamics / GD 25,035 70.30 6% 1,393 -16% <1% 4% 10x 9x n/m
3 Cisco Systems / CSCO 106,953 19.90 10% 17,626 -12% <1% 14% 11x 10x 3.5x
4 Zimmer Holdings / ZMH 10,901 60.84 14% 3,249 -12% 2% 8% 12x 11x 5.2x
5 D.R. Horton / DHI 4,541 14.33 14% 19,577 -13% 6% 12% 29x 18x 1.7x
6 Illinois Tool Works / ITW 26,919 55.71 19% 5,421 -3% 1% 12% 13x 12x >9.9x
7 Petroleo Brasileiro / PBR 186,029 29.57 19% 11,176 -5% <1% 14% 9x 8x 1.5x
8 Microsoft / MSFT 255,877 30.50 17% 9,853 -9% <1% 12% 11x 10x 6.1x
9 Intel / INTC 135,931 26.70 10% 8,111 -40% <1% 9% 11x 10x 4.5x
10 Wal-Mart / WMT 211,989 61.90 4% 19 new <1% 0% 14x 13x 4.5x
Top Holdings of Edinburgh Partners – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Cisco Systems / CSCO 106,953 19.90 10% 17,626 -12% <1% 14% 11x 10x 3.5x
2 Petroleo Brasileiro / PBR 186,029 29.57 19% 11,176 -5% <1% 14% 9x 8x 1.5x
3 Illinois Tool Works / ITW 26,919 55.71 19% 5,421 -3% 1% 12% 13x 12x >9.9x
4 Microsoft / MSFT 255,877 30.50 17% 9,853 -9% <1% 12% 11x 10x 6.1x
5 D.R. Horton / DHI 4,541 14.33 14% 19,577 -13% 6% 12% 29x 18x 1.7x
6 Intel / INTC 135,931 26.70 10% 8,111 -40% <1% 9% 11x 10x 4.5x
7 Applied Materials / AMAT 16,761 12.95 21% 16,498 4% 1% 9% 17x 11x 2.3x
8 Zimmer Holdings / ZMH 10,901 60.84 14% 3,249 -12% 2% 8% 12x 11x 5.2x
9 Bank of America / BAC 81,797 8.07 45% 14,469 -10% <1% 5% 11x 7x .6x
10 General Dynamics / GD 25,035 70.30 6% 1,393 -16% <1% 4% 10x 9x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Virgin Media / VMED
Wal-Mart / WMT
SK Telecom / SKM
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $2.4 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 99%
Median market value $26 billion
Average market value $77 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 11x
Median P/E (next FY) 10x
Median P / tangible book 2.9x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology45%
Capital Goods28%
Energy14%
Other14%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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ESL Investments (Eddie Lampert) Eddie Lampert, founder and managing member of ESL Investments, is a value investor who started out working under Bob Rubin at the arbitrage desk of Goldman Sachs. When he left Goldman to start ESL in 1988, he received the support of Texas investor Richard Rainwater. Lampert compounded ESL’s capital at rates of more than 25% per annum for many years. His largest investment was the much-publicized taking control of Kmart during Kmart’s bankruptcy process in 2002. Lampert engineered the merger of Kmart and Sears in 2004. He is currently chairman and chief capital allocator of the combined firm, Sears Holdings (SHLD). He also still manages his investment partnership, which holds a concentrated investment portfolio.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of ESL Investments
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 iStar Financial / SFI 659 6.96 32% 2,695 41% 3% 0% n/m n/m .4x
2 AutoNation / AN 4,767 36.11 -2% 54,410 -12% 41% 29% 16x 15x 7.5x
3 Capital One / COF 22,193 48.28 14% 5,094 -14% 1% 4% 8x 7x 1.4x
4 Big Lots / BIG 2,887 44.00 17% 1,653 -12% 3% 1% 15x 13x 3.9x
5 Gap / GPS 10,543 21.59 16% 31,172 -14% 6% 10% 14x 12x 4.2x
6 CIT Group / CIT 8,357 41.65 19% 5,135 -11% 3% 3% 30x 18x 1.0x
7 Genworth Financial / GNW 4,288 8.74 33% 9,412 -13% 2% 1% 7x 5x .3x
8 AutoZone / AZO 13,937 354.10 9% 2,969 -67% 8% 15% 15x 13x n/m
9 Sears Holdings / SHLD 5,084 47.57 50% 48,031 0% 45% 34% n/m n/m 1.6x
Top Holdings of ESL Investments – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Sears Holdings / SHLD 5,084 47.57 50% 48,031 0% 45% 34% n/m n/m 1.6x
2 AutoNation / AN 4,767 36.11 -2% 54,410 -12% 41% 29% 16x 15x 7.5x
3 AutoZone / AZO 13,937 354.10 9% 2,969 -67% 8% 15% 15x 13x n/m
4 Gap / GPS 10,543 21.59 16% 31,172 -14% 6% 10% 14x 12x 4.2x
5 Capital One / COF 22,193 48.28 14% 5,094 -14% 1% 4% 8x 7x 1.4x
6 CIT Group / CIT 8,357 41.65 19% 5,135 -11% 3% 3% 30x 18x 1.0x
7 Seagate Technology / STX 11,754 26.20 60% 6,977 -28% 2% 3% 4x 3x 4.9x
8 Genworth Financial / GNW 4,288 8.74 33% 9,412 -13% 2% 1% 7x 5x .3x
9 Big Lots / BIG 2,887 44.00 17% 1,653 -12% 3% 1% 15x 13x 3.9x
10 iStar Financial / SFI 659 6.96 32% 2,695 41% 3% 0% n/m n/m .4x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
None Cisco Systems / CSCO
Wells Fargo / WFC
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $6.8 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 100%
Median market value $9.4 billion
Average market value $29 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 12x
Median P/E (next FY) 11x
Median P / tangible book 1.8x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services89%
Financial8%
Technology3%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Fairfax (Prem Watsa) Prem Watsa is the founder, chairman and CEO of Fairfax (Toronto: FFH), a Canadian property/casualty insurance and reinsurance firm. While managing Fairfax’s investment portfolio over the past couple of decades, Watsa has built a reputation as an astute value investor. Some have called him “Warren Buffett of Canada.”
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Fairfax
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Intel / INTC 135,931 26.70 10% 11,500 new <1% 14% 11x 10x 4.5x
2 Johnson & Johnson / JNJ 176,413 64.60 -1% 5,947 15% <1% 18% 13x 12x 6.5x
3 Overstock.com / OSTK 162 6.96 -11% 3,389 0% 15% 1% n/m n/m >9.9x
4 Research In Motion / RIMM 8,087 15.44 6% 12,798 8% 2% 9% n/a n/a 1.1x
5 AbitibiBowater / ABH 1,545 15.28 5% 17,504 0% 17% 12% 10x 6x .5x
6 Level 3 Comms / LVLT 4,392 21.15 24% 12,931 0% 6% 13% n/m n/m n/m
7 Frontier Comms / FTR 4,020 4.04 -22% 18,620 0% 2% 3% 17x 16x n/m
8 Baldwin & Lyons / BWINB 338 22.72 4% 970 0% 7% 1% 15x 18x 1.1x
9 U.S. Bancorp / USB 55,363 29.01 7% 4,448 0% <1% 6% 11x 10x 2.8x
10 Wells Fargo / WFC 159,577 30.26 10% 4,512 0% <1% 6% 9x 8x 1.8x
Top Holdings of Fairfax – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Johnson & Johnson / JNJ 176,413 64.60 -1% 5,947 15% <1% 18% 13x 12x 6.5x
2 Intel / INTC 135,931 26.70 10% 11,500 new <1% 14% 11x 10x 4.5x
3 Level 3 Comms / LVLT 4,392 21.15 24% 12,931 0% 6% 13% n/m n/m n/m
4 AbitibiBowater / ABH 1,545 15.28 5% 17,504 0% 17% 12% 10x 6x .5x
5 Research In Motion / RIMM 8,087 15.44 6% 12,798 8% 2% 9% n/a n/a 1.1x
6 Dell / DELL 31,888 17.75 21% 9,152 -60% <1% 7% 8x 9x >9.9x
7 Wells Fargo / WFC 159,577 30.26 10% 4,512 0% <1% 6% 9x 8x 1.8x
8 U.S. Bancorp / USB 55,363 29.01 7% 4,448 0% <1% 6% 11x 10x 2.8x
9 USG / USG 1,473 13.99 38% 6,794 0% 6% 4% n/m n/m 9.4x
10 Frontier Comms / FTR 4,020 4.04 -22% 18,620 0% 2% 3% 17x 16x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Intel / INTC None
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*, **
Portfolio size $2.2 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 93%
Median market value $4.2 billion
Average market value $38 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 12x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 1.8x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**A large portion of Fairfax’s asset value may be attributed to holdings that are
not publicly traded and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
Technology31%
Services19%
Health Care18%
Other33%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Fairholme (Bruce Berkowitz) Bruce Berkowitz, manager of The Fairholme Fund, was one of the most successful value-oriented investors of the decadefrom 2000-2010. Berkowitz is a contrarian who favors companies with strong free cash flow generation as well as companies that are deeply undervalued based on assets. Fairholme runs concentrated, highly volatile equity portfolios.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Fairholme
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Bank of America / BAC 81,797 8.07 45% 112,753 1% 1% 12% 11x 7x .6x
2 Wells Fargo / WFC 159,577 30.26 10% 850 87% <1% 0% 9x 8x 1.8x
3 MBIA / MBI 2,303 11.92 3% 46,531 -4% 24% 7% n/m 13x 1.0x
4 St. Joe / JOE 1,489 16.14 10% 26,185 -1% 28% 5% n/m n/m 1.7x
5 AIG / AIG 50,633 26.66 15% 116,574 -7% 6% 39% 35x 11x .6x
6 Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A 194,903 117,980 3% 6 -35% <1% 9% 17x 15x 2.0x
7 CIT Group / CIT 8,357 41.65 19% 18,617 -4% 9% 10% 30x 18x 1.0x
8 Leucadia National / LUK 7,137 29.18 28% 18,279 -1% 7% 7% n/a n/a 1.2x
9 Assured Guaranty / AGO 3,189 17.50 33% 52 0% <1% 0% 6x 6x .7x
Top Holdings of Fairholme – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 AIG / AIG 50,633 26.66 15% 116,574 -7% 6% 39% 35x 11x .6x
2 Bank of America / BAC 81,797 8.07 45% 112,753 1% 1% 12% 11x 7x .6x
3 CIT Group / CIT 8,357 41.65 19% 18,617 -4% 9% 10% 30x 18x 1.0x
4 Sears Holdings / SHLD 5,084 47.57 50% 16,108 -1% 15% 10% n/m n/m 1.6x
5 Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A 194,903 117,980 3% 6 -35% <1% 9% 17x 15x 2.0x
6 MBIA / MBI 2,303 11.92 3% 46,531 -4% 24% 7% n/m 13x 1.0x
7 Leucadia National / LUK 7,137 29.18 28% 18,279 -1% 7% 7% n/a n/a 1.2x
8 St. Joe / JOE 1,489 16.14 10% 26,185 -1% 28% 5% n/m n/m 1.7x
9 Citigroup / C 96,263 32.93 25% 2,110 -92% <1% 1% 8x 7x .7x
10 Wells Fargo / WFC 159,577 30.26 10% 850 87% <1% 0% 9x 8x 1.8x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Goldman Sachs / GS
JPMorgan Chase / JPM
AT&T / T
Banco Santander / STD
Brookfield Asset / BAM
Royal Dutch Shell / RDS.A
Telefonica / TEF
Verizon / VZ
Vodafone / VOD
Winthrop Realty / FUR
Regions Financial / RF
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $7.9 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 99%
Median market value $56 billion
Average market value $72 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 10x
Median P/E (next FY) 9x
Median P / tangible book 1.2x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Financial78%
Services15%
Conglomerates7%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Force Capital (Robert Jaffe) Robert Jaffe founded Force Capital Management in 2002 after eight years at Steve Cohen’s SAC Capital.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Force Capital Management
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 CSX Corp. / CSX 23,152 22.05 5% 685 new <1% 4% 12x 10x 2.7x
2 iStar Financial / SFI 659 6.96 32% 3,591 49% 4% 7% n/m n/m .4x
3 Sears Holdings / SHLD 5,084 47.57 50% 1,308 74% 1% 16% n/m n/m 1.6x
4 State Auto Financial / STFC 499 12.38 -9% 164 >100% <1% 1% n/m 21x .8x
5 Williams-Sonoma / WSM 3,790 36.84 -4% 188 new <1% 2% 17x 15x 3.0x
6 Alexander & Baldwin / ALEX 1,966 47.14 15% 379 25% <1% 5% 46x 25x 1.7x
7 Staples / SPLS 10,324 14.76 6% 377 new <1% 1% 11x 10x 4.0x
8 Lowe’s / LOW 33,932 27.09 7% 461 new <1% 3% 17x 15x 2.0x
9 Can. Pacific Railway / CP 12,742 74.63 10% 156 new <1% 3% n/a n/a 2.8x
10 Ashford Hospitality / AHT 628 9.23 15% 304 >100% <1% 1% n/a n/a .6x
Top Holdings of Force Capital Management – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Sears Holdings / SHLD 5,084 47.57 50% 1,308 74% 1% 16% n/m n/m 1.6x
2 First Indust. Realty / FR 1,019 11.76 15% 3,023 -5% 3% 9% n/m n/m 1.0x
3 iStar Financial / SFI 659 6.96 32% 3,591 49% 4% 7% n/m n/m .4x
4 Copart / CPRT 3,025 46.47 -3% 514 -46% <1% 6% 18x 16x 8.7x
5 Charter Comms / CHTR 6,306 58.59 3% 388 -14% <1% 6% n/m >99x n/m
6 Bank of America / BAC 81,797 8.07 45% 2,267 -10% <1% 5% 11x 7x .6x
7 Alexander & Baldwin / ALEX 1,966 47.14 15% 379 25% <1% 5% 46x 25x 1.7x
8 Eagle Materials / EXP 1,456 32.40 26% 538 6% 1% 5% 53x 26x 4.7x
9 SL Green Realty / SLG 6,674 74.83 12% 215 -9% <1% 4% >99x 95x 1.2x
10 CSX Corp. / CSX 23,152 22.05 5% 685 new <1% 4% 12x 10x 2.7x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
C.H. Robinson / CHRW
Can. Pacific Railway / CP
CSX Corp. / CSX
Gaylord Entertain. / GET
General Growth / GGP
Hartford Financial / HIG
J.B. Hunt / JBHT
Liz Claiborne / LIZ
Lowe’s / LOW
News Corp. / NWSA
SodaStream / SODA
Staples / SPLS
Walt Disney / DIS
Williams-Sonoma / WSM
Asbury Automotive / ABG
AutoNation / AN
Barnes & Noble / BKS
Equinix / EQIX
Huntington Ingalls / HII
Iron Mountain / IRM
J.C. Penney / JCP
Lamar Advertising / LAMR
Shutterfly / SFLY
TransDigm / TDG
WABCO Holdings / WBC
Winthrop Realty / FUR
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $384 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 66%
Median maret value $2.0 billion
Average market value $9.3 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 17x
Median P/E (next FY) 16x
Median P / tangible book 1.8x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services68%
Transportation14%
Financial8%
Other10%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Gates Capital (Jeff Gates) Jeff Gates has 25+ years of experience identifying undervalued securities. He started the ECF Value Fund in 1996 after spending 10+ years in high yield bond research and sales, including as a director at Schroder & Co.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Gates Capital
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Nortek / NTK 453 30.07 15% 1,880 new 12% 6% n/a n/a n/m
2 Ashland / ASH 5,019 64.10 12% 935 6% 1% 6% 11x 9x n/m
3 Quanex Building / NX 653 17.77 18% 3,261 2% 9% 6% 32x 20x 2.3x
4 Zimmer Holdings / ZMH 10,901 60.84 14% 748 89% <1% 5% 12x 11x 5.2x
5 Darling / DAR 1,859 15.88 19% 3,582 >100% 3% 6% 10x 11x >9.9x
6 GeoMet / GMET 28 0.71 -24% 2,242 8% 6% 0% 14x 4x .6x
7 Richardson Electron. / RELL 210 12.39 1% 1,118 50% 7% 1% 33x 26x 1.0x
8 Xylem / XYL 4,996 27.07 5% 882 new <1% 3% 14x 14x n/m
9 Vishay Precision / VPG 209 15.63 -2% 1,212 0% 9% 2% 19x 14x 1.2x
10 ITT Corp. / ITT 2,096 22.60 17% 898 new <1% 2% 14x 13x n/m
Top Holdings of Gates Capital – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Solutia / SOA 3,419 27.97 62% 4,348 -13% 4% 13% 13x 11x n/m
2 W.R. Grace / GRA 4,048 54.83 19% 1,267 -23% 2% 8% 13x 12x >9.9x
3 DaVita / DVA 7,851 83.97 11% 761 -27% <1% 7% 17x 14x n/m
4 Ashland / ASH 5,019 64.10 12% 935 6% 1% 6% 11x 9x n/m
5 Quanex Building / NX 653 17.77 18% 3,261 2% 9% 6% 32x 20x 2.3x
6 Darling / DAR 1,859 15.88 19% 3,582 >100% 3% 6% 10x 11x >9.9x
7 Blount International / BLT 818 16.77 15% 3,378 -1% 7% 6% 13x 11x n/m
8 Nortek / NTK 453 30.07 15% 1,880 new 12% 6% n/a n/a n/m
9 Snap-on / SNA 3,548 60.98 20% 890 -18% 2% 6% 13x 11x 6.5x
10 Zimmer Holdings / ZMH 10,901 60.84 14% 748 89% <1% 5% 12x 11x 5.2x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
E.W. Scripps / SSP
ITT Corp. / ITT
Nortek / NTK
Xylem / XYL
C.R. Bard / BCR
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $924 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 70%
Median market value $1.9 billion
Average market value $3.0 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 14x
Median P/E (next FY) 13x
Median P / tangible book 1.9x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Basic Materials33%
Capital Goods27%
Services13%
Other28%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Glenview (Larry Robbins) Larry Robbins founded Glenview after working for buyout specialist Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors. Robbins’ hedge fund utilizes various value-oriented investment strategies in order to generate absolute returns.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Glenview Capital
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Citigroup / C 96,263 32.93 25% 8,561 >100% <1% 5% 8x 7x .7x
2 Crown Castle / CCI 14,029 49.31 10% 7,232 12% 3% 6% 62x 43x n/m
3 Thermo Fisher / TMO 21,002 55.52 23% 4,649 8% 1% 4% 12x 11x n/m
4 Take-Two / TTWO 1,415 15.80 17% 5,619 >100% 6% 1% n/m 6x 5.1x
5 Quest Diagnostics / DGX 9,078 57.54 -1% 1,046 new <1% 1% 13x 11x n/m
6 HCA / HCA 12,149 27.83 26% 8,770 12% 2% 4% 8x 7x n/m
7 Openwave Systems / OPWV 181 2.10 33% 2,568 >100% 3% 0% n/m n/m 5.0x
8 Lab Corp. of America / LH 8,922 90.03 5% 1,082 41% 1% 2% 14x 13x n/m
9 Sprint Nextel / S 6,860 2.29 -2% 11,049 24% <1% 0% n/m n/m n/m
10 Xerox / XRX 10,986 7.92 -1% 25,382 7% 2% 3% 7x 6x >9.9x
Top Holdings of Glenview Capital – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Life Technologies / LIFE 8,830 49.55 27% 13,781 -3% 8% 12% 12x 11x 1.9x
2 McKesson / MCK 20,018 81.34 4% 4,613 -22% 2% 6% 13x 11x >9.9x
3 Crown Castle / CCI 14,029 49.31 10% 7,232 12% 3% 6% 62x 43x n/m
4 Citigroup / C 96,263 32.93 25% 8,561 >100% <1% 5% 8x 7x .7x
5 Thermo Fisher / TMO 21,002 55.52 23% 4,649 8% 1% 4% 12x 11x n/m
6 Flextronics / FLEX 4,785 6.97 23% 36,934 -11% 5% 4% 8x 7x 2.3x
7 HCA / HCA 12,149 27.83 26% 8,770 12% 2% 4% 8x 7x n/m
8 Tyco International / TYC 22,703 49.25 5% 4,475 -24% <1% 4% 14x 12x >9.9x
9 BMC Software / BMC 6,446 39.25 20% 5,409 -4% 3% 4% 12x 11x n/m
10 Fidelity National / FIS 8,580 28.65 8% 7,325 -8% 2% 4% 13x 11x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Oracle / ORCL
Quest Diagnostics / DGX
Agilent Technologies / A
Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE
Comcast / CMCSA
Corning / GLW
DaVita / DVA
Goldman Sachs / GS
Morgan Stanley / MS
Pfizer / PFE
Pharma Product / PPDI
Wyndham / WYN
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $5.9 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 52%
Median market value $12 billion
Average market value $22 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 12x
Median P/E (next FY) 11x
Median P / tangible book 2.3x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Health Care30%
Services22%
Technology19%
Other29%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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GoldenTree (Steve Tananbaum) Steve Tananbaum founded GoldenTree Asset Management in 2000. Prior to starting GoldenTree, Tananbaum spent more than ten years at MacKay Shields, including as lead portfolio manager of the firm’s hedge fund area. Prior to MacKay Shields, Tananbaum worked on high yield and M&A transactions in the corporate finance department of Kidder, Peabody.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of GoldenTree Asset Management
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 CBS / CBS 19,597 29.90 10% 469 new <1% 12% 16x 13x n/m
2 Tenet Healthcare / THC 2,819 5.72 12% 12,257 -9% 2% 61% 13x 12x >9.9x
3 American Capital / ACAS 2,996 8.69 29% 1,530 -17% <1% 11% 11x 10x .7x
4 Charter Comms / CHTR 6,306 58.59 3% 66 -85% <1% 3% n/m >99x n/m
5 Gannett / GCI 3,481 14.61 9% 993 -81% <1% 13% 7x 7x n/m
Top Holdings of GoldenTree Asset Management – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Tenet Healthcare / THC 2,819 5.72 12% 12,257 -9% 2% 61% 13x 12x >9.9x
2 Gannett / GCI 3,481 14.61 9% 993 -81% <1% 13% 7x 7x n/m
3 CBS / CBS 19,597 29.90 10% 469 new <1% 12% 16x 13x n/m
4 American Capital / ACAS 2,996 8.69 29% 1,530 -17% <1% 11% 11x 10x .7x
5 Charter Comms / CHTR 6,306 58.59 3% 66 -85% <1% 3% n/m >99x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
CBS / CBS Ashland / ASH
Booz Allen Hamilton / BAH
Cedar Fair / FUN
CIT Group / CIT
CONSOL Energy / CNX
Halliburton / HAL
KKR & Co. / KKR
Penn National Gaming / PENN
Popular / BPOP
Rowan Companies / RDC
Solutia / SOA
Tenneco / TEN
TRW Automotive / TRW
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $116 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 100%
Median maret value $4.1 billion
Average market value $6.9 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 11x
Median P/E (next FY) 10x
Median P / tangible book 2.3x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Health Care61%
Services28%
Financial11%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Greenhaven (Ed Wachenheim) Ed Wachenheim manages a $3+ billion value hedge fund with a long term-oriented, concentrated investment approach.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Greenhaven Associates
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Devon Energy / DVN 26,112 64.65 4% 4,728 17% 1% 9% 11x 10x 1.7x
2 Lowe’s / LOW 33,932 27.09 7% 12,118 9% <1% 10% 17x 15x 2.0x
3 Air Products & Chem / APD 19,039 90.40 6% 3,459 1% 2% 10% 15x 13x 4.0x
4 FedEx / FDX 29,961 95.27 14% 4,424 1% 1% 13% 15x 13x 2.2x
5 Baker Hughes / BHI 20,785 47.62 -2% 4,517 >100% 1% 7% 10x 8x 2.3x
6 Agilent Technologies / A 15,340 44.14 26% 3,261 >100% <1% 4% 14x 13x 6.6x
7 UPS / UPS 74,005 76.69 5% 3,924 9% <1% 9% 16x 14x >9.9x
8 Rockwell Collins / COL 8,774 59.03 7% 2,355 5% 2% 4% 13x 12x >9.9x
9 RHJ International / RHJIF 392 4.66 -13% 1,877 4% 2% 0% n/a n/a n/m
10 Home Depot / HD 69,879 45.33 8% 2,094 34% <1% 3% 19x 16x 4.2x
Top Holdings of Greenhaven Associates – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 FedEx / FDX 29,961 95.27 14% 4,424 1% 1% 13% 15x 13x 2.2x
2 Lowe’s / LOW 33,932 27.09 7% 12,118 9% <1% 10% 17x 15x 2.0x
3 3M / MMM 61,072 87.14 7% 3,616 -3% <1% 10% 14x 13x 8.9x
4 Air Products & Chem / APD 19,039 90.40 6% 3,459 1% 2% 10% 15x 13x 4.0x
5 Devon Energy / DVN 26,112 64.65 4% 4,728 17% 1% 9% 11x 10x 1.7x
6 UPS / UPS 74,005 76.69 5% 3,924 9% <1% 9% 16x 14x >9.9x
7 Baker Hughes / BHI 20,785 47.62 -2% 4,517 >100% 1% 7% 10x 8x 2.3x
8 Equitable Resources / EQT 7,324 49.01 -11% 3,159 -2% 2% 5% 21x 16x 2.1x
9 Agilent Technologies / A 15,340 44.14 26% 3,261 >100% <1% 4% 14x 13x 6.6x
10 Rockwell Collins / COL 8,774 59.03 7% 2,355 5% 2% 4% 13x 12x >9.9x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Am. Independence / AMIC
Lennox International / LII
Mohawk Industries / MHK
None
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $3.2 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 82%
Median market value $16 billion
Average market value $30 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 15x
Median P/E (next FY) 13x
Median P / tangible book 3.3x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Transportation24%
Energy17%
Services14%
Other46%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Greenlight (David Einhorn) David Einhorn is the founder of Greenlight Capital, a value-oriented, research-driven investment firm with a market-beating long-term track record. Since inception in May 1996, Greenlight has reported a compounded annual return, net of fees and expenses, of approximately 20%. David is author of Fooling Some of the People All of the Time.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Greenlight
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Einstein Noah / BAGL 236 14.05 -11% 10,733 0% 64% 3% 18x 16x >9.9x
2 BioFuel Energy / BIOF 77 0.63 -7% 27,169 0% 22% 0% n/a n/a .9x
3 General Motors / GM 39,896 25.50 26% 19,009 29% 1% 9% 7x 7x n/m
4 Apple / AAPL 460,050 493.42 22% 1,464 11% <1% 13% 12x 10x 5.4x
5 Dell / DELL 31,888 17.75 21% 14,100 new <1% 4% 8x 9x >9.9x
6 Microsoft / MSFT 255,877 30.50 17% 15,171 0% <1% 8% 11x 10x 6.1x
7 Delphi Automotive / DLPH 9,861 30.04 39% 8,195 new 2% 4% 8x 7x 9.0x
8 Seagate Technology / STX 11,754 26.20 60% 14,449 0% 3% 7% 4x 3x 4.9x
9 Xerox / XRX 10,986 7.92 -1% 16,952 new 1% 2% 7x 6x >9.9x
10 Liberty Media / LMCA 10,589 85.15 9% 980 new <1% 1% 33x 51x 2.6x
Top Holdings of Greenlight – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Apple / AAPL 460,050 493.42 22% 1,464 11% <1% 13% 12x 10x 5.4x
2 General Motors / GM 39,896 25.50 26% 19,009 29% 1% 9% 7x 7x n/m
3 Microsoft / MSFT 255,877 30.50 17% 15,171 0% <1% 8% 11x 10x 6.1x
4 Seagate Technology / STX 11,754 26.20 60% 14,449 0% 3% 7% 4x 3x 4.9x
5 CareFusion / CFN 5,716 25.43 0% 12,153 -5% 5% 5% 14x 13x 4.5x
6 Ensco / ESV 12,869 55.80 19% 5,052 9% 2% 5% 18x 10x 1.7x
7 Marvell Technology / MRVL 9,365 16.05 16% 17,374 4% 3% 5% 13x 14x 3.3x
8 Dell / DELL 31,888 17.75 21% 14,100 new <1% 4% 8x 9x >9.9x
9 Delphi Automotive / DLPH 9,861 30.04 39% 8,195 new 2% 4% 8x 7x 9.0x
10 NCR / NCR 3,332 21.14 28% 9,611 -3% 6% 4% 9x 8x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
CA / CA
Dell / DELL
Delphi Automotive / DLPH
DST Systems / DST
Liberty Media / LMCA
OmniVision / OVTI
Research In Motion / RIMM
Tessera Technologies / TSRA
Xerox / XRX
Yahoo! / YHOO
Becton Dickinson / BDX
CVS Caremark / CVS
Employers Holdings / EIG
Ingram Micro / IM
LyondellBasell / LYB
Marathon Oil / MRO
SemGroup / SEMG
Synaptics / SYNA
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $5.6 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 64%
Median market value $6.3 billion
Average market value $26 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 13x
Median P/E (next FY) 11x
Median P / tangible book 2.4x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology46%
Services16%
Consumer Cyclical
13%
Other25%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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H Partners (Rehan Jaffer) Rehan Jaffer honed his investment approach at Dan Loeb’s activist hedge fund Third Point. He joined River Run Partners in 2004 and started H Partners shortly thereafter. Loeb was quoted in the book Hedge Hunters as saying the following about Jaffer: “He is super-hungry. He’s got a good nose. He’s very intelligent. So he’s got a great combination of having a high IQ, really strong financial analytics, a great nose for value, and great trader sense.”
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of H Partners
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Sealy Corp. / ZZ 153 1.52 -12% 14,616 0% 14% 3% 76x 19x n/m
2 Boyd Gaming / BYD 786 9.10 22% 3,400 2% 4% 4% >99x 34x 1.8x
3 Cumulus Media / CMLS 536 3.79 13% 677 0% <1% 0% 8x 7x n/m
4 Six Flags / SIX 2,591 47.08 14% 13,310 0% 24% 84% 84x 64x n/m
5 W.R. Grace / GRA 4,048 54.83 19% 1,110 0% 2% 8% 13x 12x >9.9x
Top Holdings of H Partners – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Six Flags / SIX 2,591 47.08 14% 13,310 0% 24% 84% 84x 64x n/m
2 W.R. Grace / GRA 4,048 54.83 19% 1,110 0% 2% 8% 13x 12x >9.9x
3 Boyd Gaming / BYD 786 9.10 22% 3,400 2% 4% 4% >99x 34x 1.8x
4 Sealy Corp. / ZZ 153 1.52 -12% 14,616 0% 14% 3% 76x 19x n/m
5 Cumulus Media / CMLS 536 3.79 13% 677 0% <1% 0% 8x 7x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
None Leap Wireless / LEAP
Pulte Homes / PHM
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $743 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 100%
Median market value $786 million
Average market value $1.7 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 40x
Median P/E (next FY) 18x
Median P / tangible book 1.8x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services89%
Basic Materials8%
Consumer Cyclical
3%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Harbinger (Phil Falcone) Phil Falcone founded Harbinger Capital Partners in 2001 in order to capitalize on distressed investment opportunities. The firm has since expanded into special situation investments and other value-oriented investment strategies.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Harbinger Capital
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 N.A. Energy Partners / NOA 193 5.34 -17% 7,032 2% 19% 2% n/a n/a 1.7x
2 Spectrum Brands / SPB 1,497 28.91 6% 28,066 0% 54% 50% 12x 10x n/m
3 Crosstex Energy / XTXI 626 13.26 5% 7,000 0% 15% 6% n/m n/m n/m
4 Cliffs Natural / CLF 10,519 73.55 18% 450 0% <1% 2% 6x 7x 2.4x
5 Harbinger Group / HRG 680 4.88 22% 117,425 0% 84% 35% n/a n/a n/m
6 EXCO Resources / XCO 1,514 7.05 -33% 3,500 30% 2% 2% 11x 15x 1.0x
7 Calpine / CPN 7,840 16.07 -2% 676 0% <1% 1% >99x 89x 1.8x
8 Presidential Life / PLFE 337 11.38 14% 546 0% 2% 0% n/a n/a .4x
9 General Moly / GMO 331 3.64 18% 1,398 0% 2% 0% n/m n/m 2.3x
10 Owens Corning / OC 4,092 33.85 18% 475 0% <1% 1% 16x 12x 2.7x
Top Holdings of Harbinger Capital – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Spectrum Brands / SPB 1,497 28.91 6% 28,066 0% 54% 50% 12x 10x n/m
2 Harbinger Group / HRG 680 4.88 22% 117,425 0% 84% 35% n/a n/a n/m
3 Crosstex Energy / XTXI 626 13.26 5% 7,000 0% 15% 6% n/m n/m n/m
4 N.A. Energy Partners / NOA 193 5.34 -17% 7,032 2% 19% 2% n/a n/a 1.7x
5 Cliffs Natural / CLF 10,519 73.55 18% 450 0% <1% 2% 6x 7x 2.4x
6 EXCO Resources / XCO 1,514 7.05 -33% 3,500 30% 2% 2% 11x 15x 1.0x
7 Owens Corning / OC 4,092 33.85 18% 475 0% <1% 1% 16x 12x 2.7x
8 Calpine / CPN 7,840 16.07 -2% 676 0% <1% 1% >99x 89x 1.8x
9 Presidential Life / PLFE 337 11.38 14% 546 0% 2% 0% n/a n/a .4x
10 General Moly / GMO 331 3.64 18% 1,398 0% 2% 0% n/m n/m 2.3x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
None CVR Energy / CVI
Forest Oil Corp. / FST
Huntsman / HUN
Lone Pine Resources / LPR
Research In Motion / RIMM
WD-40 Company / WDFC
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*, **
Portfolio size $1.6 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 99%
Median market value $1.5 billion
Average market value $2.8 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 12x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 1.7x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**A material portion of assets managed by Phil Falcone may be invested in
private, non-equity or non-U.S. securities, which are not shown here.
Technology54%
Financial38%
Energy4%
Other4%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Hawkshaw (Kian Ghazi) Kian Ghazi co-founded long/short investment partnership Hawkshaw in 2002. Ghazi looks for investments in which there is a disconnect between near-term market expectations and longer-term intrinsic value. He relies on in-depth primary research to form investment theses on individual companies.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Hawkshaw Capital
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Blyth / BTH 521 63.40 12% 279 68% 3% 20% n/a n/a 2.9x
2 Sycamore Networks / SCMR 570 19.84 11% 320 new 1% 7% n/m n/m 1.3x
3 Talbots / TLB 222 3.15 18% 2,977 9% 4% 11% n/m n/m >9.9x
4 Westport Innovations / WPRT 2,140 44.06 33% 69 new <1% 3% n/a n/a >9.9x
5 Abercrombie & Fitch / ANF 3,874 45.07 -8% 200 0% <1% 10% 19x 13x 2.0x
6 Frozen Food Express / FFEX 21 1.20 -7% 1,872 0% 11% 3% n/a n/a .4x
7 AnnTaylor Stores / ANN 1,239 23.65 -5% 206 0% <1% 5% 14x 12x 2.8x
8 Electronic Arts / EA 5,773 17.42 -15% 203 -31% <1% 4% 20x 15x >9.9x
9 XO Group / XOXO 251 8.77 5% 887 0% 3% 9% 58x 32x 2.3x
10 Ingram Micro / IM 2,971 19.37 6% 661 0% <1% 14% 10x 8x .9x
Top Holdings of Hawkshaw Capital – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Blyth / BTH 521 63.40 12% 279 68% 3% 20% n/a n/a 2.9x
2 Ingram Micro / IM 2,971 19.37 6% 661 0% <1% 14% 10x 8x .9x
3 Talbots / TLB 222 3.15 18% 2,977 9% 4% 11% n/m n/m >9.9x
4 Abercrombie & Fitch / ANF 3,874 45.07 -8% 200 0% <1% 10% 19x 13x 2.0x
5 XO Group / XOXO 251 8.77 5% 887 0% 3% 9% 58x 32x 2.3x
6 Sycamore Networks / SCMR 570 19.84 11% 320 new 1% 7% n/m n/m 1.3x
7 Aviat Networks / AVNW 144 2.35 28% 2,182 0% 4% 6% >99x 12x .9x
8 Symantec / SYMC 12,970 17.78 14% 288 -50% <1% 6% 11x 10x n/m
9 AnnTaylor Stores / ANN 1,239 23.65 -5% 206 0% <1% 5% 14x 12x 2.8x
10 Electronic Arts / EA 5,773 17.42 -15% 203 -31% <1% 4% 20x 15x >9.9x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Sycamore Networks / SCMR CIBER / CBR
Dell / DELL
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $89 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 92%
Median maret value $570 million
Average market value $4.2 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 17x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 2.1x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology39%
Services35%
Consumer Non-Cyclical
20%
Other6%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Hound Partners (Jonathan Auerbach) Jonathan Auerbach is a “Tiger seed,” having received an early-stage investment from Julian Robertson.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Hound Partners
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Google / GOOG 197,003 605.91 -6% 85 68% <1% 7% 14x 12x 4.0x
2 Valeant Pharma / VRX 14,310 47.91 3% 1,988 7% <1% 13% n/a n/a n/m
3 General Motors / GM 39,896 25.50 26% 1,380 new <1% 5% 7x 7x n/m
4 Sherwin-Williams / SHW 10,207 98.37 10% 457 98% <1% 6% 17x 15x >9.9x
5 Kronos Worldwide / KRO 2,719 23.46 30% 1,619 63% 1% 5% 9x 8x 3.1x
6 Groupon / GRPN 13,413 21.03 2% 451 new <1% 1% 70x 27x >9.9x
7 Williams Companies / WMB 17,128 29.06 8% 961 new <1% 4% 19x 20x 2.2x
8 Level 3 Comms / LVLT 4,392 21.15 24% 2,106 30% 1% 6% n/m n/m n/m
9 Molycorp / MCP 2,238 26.68 11% 330 new <1% 1% 18x 10x 2.6x
10 Ascent Media / ASCMA 699 47.11 -7% 688 3% 5% 5% n/m n/m n/m
Top Holdings of Hound Partners – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Valeant Pharma / VRX 14,310 47.91 3% 1,988 7% <1% 13% n/a n/a n/m
2 W.R. Grace / GRA 4,048 54.83 19% 1,686 -2% 2% 13% 13x 12x >9.9x
3 Carter’s / CRI 2,504 42.73 7% 1,399 -11% 2% 8% 22x 18x 9.0x
4 Google / GOOG 197,003 605.91 -6% 85 68% <1% 7% 14x 12x 4.0x
5 Ensco / ESV 12,869 55.80 19% 913 -28% <1% 7% 18x 10x 1.7x
6 Sherwin-Williams / SHW 10,207 98.37 10% 457 98% <1% 6% 17x 15x >9.9x
7 Level 3 Comms / LVLT 4,392 21.15 24% 2,106 30% 1% 6% n/m n/m n/m
8 TransDigm / TDG 5,886 116.19 21% 329 -15% <1% 5% 19x 17x n/m
9 Kronos Worldwide / KRO 2,719 23.46 30% 1,619 63% 1% 5% 9x 8x 3.1x
10 General Motors / GM 39,896 25.50 26% 1,380 new <1% 5% 7x 7x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Angie’s List / ANGI
General Motors / GM
Groupon / GRPN
Molycorp / MCP
Williams Companies / WMB
Compass Minerals / CMP
Liberty Interactive / LINTA
Microsoft / MSFT
Theravance / THRX
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $719 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 77%
Median maret value $5.1 billion
Average market value $28 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 17x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 3.1x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services25%
Basic Materials19%Health Care
18%
Other37%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Icahn Entities (Carl Icahn) Carl Icahn is an activist investor with a long track record of success agitating for change at underperforming companies. Carl publishes an activist investing blog entitled The Icahn Report at www.icahnreport.com.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Icahn Entities
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Navistar / NAV 3,164 45.79 21% 7,251 >100% 10% 3% 8x 7x n/m
2 Dynegy / DYN 203 1.65 -40% 18,042 0% 15% 0% n/m n/m .1x
3 El Paso Corp. / EP 20,961 27.18 2% 72,279 10% 9% 16% 26x 22x 4.8x
4 Motorola Solutions / MSI 15,430 47.40 2% 38,292 0% 12% 15% 16x 14x 4.1x
5 Federal-Mogul / FDML 1,709 17.28 17% 76,385 1% 77% 11% 9x 8x n/m
6 American Railcar / ARII 605 28.32 18% 11,849 0% 55% 3% >99x 20x 2.0x
7 Mentor Graphics / MENT 1,586 14.49 7% 16,120 0% 15% 2% 14x 12x 5.8x
8 Hain Celestial / HAIN 1,773 39.98 9% 7,131 0% 16% 2% 23x 20x n/m
9 Icahn Enterprises / IEP 3,870 39.02 9% 79,238 0% 80% 25% n/a n/a 2.5x
10 WebMD Health / WBMD 1,543 27.09 -28% 5,692 >100% 10% 1% 22x 59x 3.5x
Top Holdings of Icahn Entities – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Icahn Enterprises / IEP 3,870 39.02 9% 79,238 0% 80% 25% n/a n/a 2.5x
2 El Paso Corp. / EP 20,961 27.18 2% 72,279 10% 9% 16% 26x 22x 4.8x
3 Motorola Solutions / MSI 15,430 47.40 2% 38,292 0% 12% 15% 16x 14x 4.1x
4 Federal-Mogul / FDML 1,709 17.28 17% 76,385 1% 77% 11% 9x 8x n/m
5 Motorola Mobility / MMI 11,815 39.45 2% 30,193 -10% 10% 10% 64x 34x 3.2x
6 Forest Labs / FRX 8,375 31.54 4% 26,362 1% 10% 7% 9x 27x 3.0x
7 American Railcar / ARII 605 28.32 18% 11,849 0% 55% 3% >99x 20x 2.0x
8 Navistar / NAV 3,164 45.79 21% 7,251 >100% 10% 3% 8x 7x n/m
9 Hain Celestial / HAIN 1,773 39.98 9% 7,131 0% 16% 2% 23x 20x n/m
10 Amylin Pharma / AMLN 2,512 17.17 51% 14,382 0% 10% 2% n/m n/m n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
CVR Energy / CVI Clorox / CLX
Vector Group / VGR
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*, **
Portfolio size $12 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 91%
Median market value $1.8 billion
Average market value $4.4 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 16x
Median P/E (next FY) 14x
Median P / tangible book 3.1x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**A large portion of assets controlled by Carl Icahn may be attributed to entities
other than Icahn Capital LP and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
Financial29%
Consumer Cyclical
18%
Capital Goods17%
Other35%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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International Value Advisers (Charles de Vaulx) IVA was formed in 2007 and recently managed $16 billion. CIO Charles de Vaulx was previously portfolio manager of the First Eagle Global, Overseas, U.S. Value, Gold and Variable Funds. At First Eagle, de Vaulx was mentored by, and ultimately succeeded, Jean-Marie Eveillard. de Vaulx is a value investor in the tradition of Graham and Dodd.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of International Value Advisers
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 TOTAL / TOT 127,111 53.65 5% 5,721 17% <1% 6% 8x 8x 1.7x
2 Devon Energy / DVN 26,112 64.65 4% 4,743 9% 1% 6% 11x 10x 1.7x
3 Net1 UEPS / UEPS 456 10.13 32% 12,380 0% 28% 3% 7x 9x >9.9x
4 Staples / SPLS 10,324 14.76 6% 12,586 14% 2% 4% 11x 10x 4.0x
5 Valassis Comms / VCI 1,037 23.17 20% 3,370 39% 8% 2% 9x 8x n/m
6 Nortel Inversora / NTL 35 23.90 3% 115 3% 8% 0% 6x 6x .0x
7 Seacor Holdings / CKH 2,106 96.98 9% 788 new 4% 2% 25x 16x 1.2x
8 Washington Post / WPO 3,003 389.02 3% 530 0% 7% 4% 18x 23x 5.0x
9 IAMGOLD / IAG 6,148 16.32 3% 2,588 27% <1% 1% 13x 12x 2.0x
10 Cimarex Energy / XEC 5,739 66.93 8% 856 35% <1% 1% 11x 12x 2.5x
Top Holdings of International Value Advisers – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 News Corp. / NWSA 47,979 19.18 8% 16,633 -1% <1% 7% 14x 11x >9.9x
2 TOTAL / TOT 127,111 53.65 5% 5,721 17% <1% 6% 8x 8x 1.7x
3 Devon Energy / DVN 26,112 64.65 4% 4,743 9% 1% 6% 11x 10x 1.7x
4 Microsoft / MSFT 255,877 30.50 17% 8,769 -16% <1% 6% 11x 10x 6.1x
5 Hewlett-Packard / HPQ 56,721 28.70 11% 9,186 -4% <1% 5% 7x 6x n/m
6 Dell / DELL 31,888 17.75 21% 13,571 -16% <1% 5% 8x 9x >9.9x
7 MasterCard / MA 50,284 396.14 6% 547 -15% <1% 4% 18x 15x >9.9x
8 Washington Post / WPO 3,003 389.02 3% 530 0% 7% 4% 18x 23x 5.0x
9 Staples / SPLS 10,324 14.76 6% 12,586 14% 2% 4% 11x 10x 4.0x
10 Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A 194,903 117,980.00 3% 2 0% <1% 4% 17x 15x 2.0x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Seacor Holdings / CKH Iron Mountain / IRM
Vodafone / VOD
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $4.8 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 52%
Median market value $13 billion
Average market value $39 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 13x
Median P/E (next FY) 11x
Median P / tangible book 2.3x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology34%
Services31%
Energy15%
Other20%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Joho Capital (Robert Karr) Robert Karr is a “Tiger Cub,” having previously worked under Julian Robertson of Tiger Management. Karr runs a concentrated investment fund, with the top three holdings occasionally comprising more than 50% of the equity portfolio.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Joho Capital
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 SINA Corp. / SINA 4,480 68.56 32% 687 >100% 1% 10% 73x 49x 3.9x
2 Google / GOOG 197,003 605.91 -6% 130 0% <1% 16% 14x 12x 4.0x
3 Yahoo! / YHOO 20,018 16.14 0% 3,490 0% <1% 11% 20x 17x 2.4x
4 Katy Industries / KT 7,930 16.30 10% 3,389 0% <1% 11% 5x 5x .9x
5 Veeco Instruments / VECO 1,098 28.36 36% 777 new 2% 4% 22x 14x 1.6x
6 TAL Education / XRS 876 11.32 14% 2,104 16% 3% 5% 37x 29x 5.7x
7 Changyou.com / CYOU 1,330 25.39 10% 252 new <1% 1% 5x 5x 3.4x
8 Hexcel / HXL 2,645 26.61 10% 821 0% <1% 4% 19x 17x 3.6x
9 Home Inns & Hotels / HMIN 1,390 30.69 19% 494 0% 1% 3% 24x 20x 4.0x
10 21Vianet Group / VNET 630 11.10 21% 364 new <1% 1% 4x 4x n/m
Top Holdings of Joho Capital – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 New Oriental Edu. / EDU 4,180 26.85 12% 4,311 -25% 3% 24% 30x 23x 7.5x
2 Google / GOOG 197,003 605.91 -6% 130 0% <1% 16% 14x 12x 4.0x
3 Yahoo! / YHOO 20,018 16.14 0% 3,490 0% <1% 11% 20x 17x 2.4x
4 Katy Industries / KT 7,930 16.30 10% 3,389 0% <1% 11% 5x 5x .9x
5 SINA Corp. / SINA 4,480 68.56 32% 687 >100% 1% 10% 73x 49x 3.9x
6 Estee Lauder / EL 22,060 56.90 1% 792 -16% <1% 9% 25x 22x >9.9x
7 TAL Education / XRS 876 11.32 14% 2,104 16% 3% 5% 37x 29x 5.7x
8 Veeco Instruments / VECO 1,098 28.36 36% 777 new 2% 4% 22x 14x 1.6x
9 Hexcel / HXL 2,645 26.61 10% 821 0% <1% 4% 19x 17x 3.6x
10 Home Inns & Hotels / HMIN 1,390 30.69 19% 494 0% 1% 3% 24x 20x 4.0x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
21Vianet Group / VNET
Changyou.com / CYOU
Veeco Instruments / VECO
7 Days Group / SVN
Renren / RENN
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $492 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 98%
Median maret value $3.4 billion
Average market value $22 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 21x
Median P/E (next FY) 17x
Median P / tangible book 3.7x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology48%
Services43%
Consumer Non-Cyclical
9%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Lane Five (Lisa Rapuano) Yale-educated Lisa Rapuano spent ten years at Legg Mason Capital Management and two years as co-CIO at Matador Capital Management prior to founding Lane Five in 2006.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Lane Five Capital
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Ambassadors Group / EPAX 86 4.90 9% 1,189 >100% 7% 6% 54x 27x 1.3x
2 Williams Controls / WMCO 81 11.07 0% 667 0% 9% 7% 13x 10x 4.6x
3 Healthsouth / HLS 1,796 18.85 7% 279 0% <1% 5% 15x 13x n/m
4 Quiksilver / ZQK 753 4.55 26% 1,125 0% <1% 5% 22x 13x 3.7x
5 Learning Tree / LTRE 78 5.74 -16% 726 0% 5% 4% 64x 15x 2.1x
6 Monotype Imaging / TYPE 545 15.13 -3% 293 0% <1% 4% 17x 15x n/m
7 Markel / MKL 3,925 407.96 -2% 10 0% <1% 4% 26x 25x 1.6x
8 MasterCard / MA 50,284 396.14 6% 12 0% <1% 5% 18x 15x >9.9x
9 Corinthian Colleges / COCO 424 5.00 130% 2,020 6% 2% 10% 17x 11x 2.2x
10 Skechers / SKX 698 13.98 15% 338 0% <1% 5% n/m 29x .8x
Top Holdings of Lane Five Capital – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Corinthian Colleges / COCO 424 5.00 130% 2,020 6% 2% 10% 17x 11x 2.2x
2 Williams Controls / WMCO 81 11.07 0% 667 0% 9% 7% 13x 10x 4.6x
3 Ambassadors Group / EPAX 86 4.90 9% 1,189 >100% 7% 6% 54x 27x 1.3x
4 Healthsouth / HLS 1,796 18.85 7% 279 0% <1% 5% 15x 13x n/m
5 Quiksilver / ZQK 753 4.55 26% 1,125 0% <1% 5% 22x 13x 3.7x
6 MasterCard / MA 50,284 396.14 6% 12 0% <1% 5% 18x 15x >9.9x
7 Skechers / SKX 698 13.98 15% 338 0% <1% 5% n/m 29x .8x
8 Monotype Imaging / TYPE 545 15.13 -3% 293 0% <1% 4% 17x 15x n/m
9 Learning Tree / LTRE 78 5.74 -16% 726 0% 5% 4% 64x 15x 2.1x
10 Markel / MKL 3,925 407.96 -2% 10 0% <1% 4% 26x 25x 1.6x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
None None
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $104 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio 54%
Median maret value $1.4 billion
Average market value $5.3 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 17x
Median P/E (next FY) 15x
Median P / tangible book 2.1x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services55%
Consumer Cyclical
17%
Financial16%
Other13%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Leucadia (Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg) Chairman Cumming and President Steinberg describe their approach in a 2008 letter: “We tend to be buyers of assets and companies that are troubled or out of favor and as a result are selling substantially below the values, which we believe, arethere. From time to time, we sell parts of these operations when prices available in the market reach what we believe to be advantageous levels. While we are not perfect in executing this strategy, we are proud of our long-term track record. We are not income statement driven and do not run your company with an undue emphasis on either quarterly or annual earnings. We believe we are conservative in our accounting practices and policies and that our balance sheet is conservatively stated.”
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Leucadia
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 INTL FCStone / INTL 427 22.51 -4% 1,618 0% 9% 3% 9x n/a 1.8x
2 Jefferies / JEF 3,236 15.71 14% 58,006 3% 28% 63% 13x 10x 1.1x
3 Cowen / COWN 320 2.77 7% 994 0% <1% 0% n/m 7x .6x
4 Mueller Industries / MLI 1,797 47.02 22% 10,423 0% 27% 34% 19x n/a 2.1x
Top Holdings of Leucadia – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Jefferies / JEF 3,236 15.71 14% 58,006 3% 28% 63% 13x 10x 1.1x
2 Mueller Industries / MLI 1,797 47.02 22% 10,423 0% 27% 34% 19x n/a 2.1x
3 INTL FCStone / INTL 427 22.51 -4% 1,618 0% 9% 3% 9x n/a 1.8x
4 Cowen / COWN 320 2.77 7% 994 0% <1% 0% n/m 7x .6x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
None Global Power Equip. / GLPW
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*, **
Portfolio size $1.4 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 100%
Median market value $427 million
Average market value $1.2 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 16x
Median P/E (next FY) 10x
Median P / tangible book 1.8x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**A large portion of Leucadia’s asset value may be attributed to holdings that
are not publicly traded and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
Financial66%
Basic Materials34%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Lone Pine (Steve Mandel) Mandel founded long/short firm Lone Pine in 1997. He previously worked for Tiger Management, Goldman Sachs and Mars.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Lone Pine
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 priceline.com / PCLN 27,134 545.04 17% 1,467 >100% 3% 5% 24x 18x >9.9x
2 Google / GOOG 197,003 605.91 -6% 1,347 44% <1% 5% 14x 12x 4.0x
3 Polo Ralph Lauren / RL 15,938 172.60 25% 4,680 11% 5% 5% 25x 21x 7.4x
4 Apple / AAPL 460,050 493.42 22% 2,151 4% <1% 7% 12x 10x 5.4x
5 VanceInfo / VIT 591 13.29 47% 7,863 0% 18% 1% 17x 14x 2.4x
6 Visa / V 92,635 113.90 12% 4,797 >100% <1% 4% 19x 16x >9.9x
7 Fossil / FOSL 6,290 100.49 27% 3,625 83% 6% 2% 22x 18x 6.4x
8 New Oriental Edu. / EDU 4,180 26.85 12% 9,957 48% 6% 2% 30x 23x 7.5x
9 Williams-Sonoma / WSM 3,790 36.84 -4% 6,235 7% 6% 2% 17x 15x 3.0x
10 Accretive Health / AH 2,403 24.47 6% 9,058 16% 9% 1% 57x 35x >9.9x
Top Holdings of Lone Pine – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Apple / AAPL 460,050 493.42 22% 2,151 4% <1% 7% 12x 10x 5.4x
2 Google / GOOG 197,003 605.91 -6% 1,347 44% <1% 5% 14x 12x 4.0x
3 Polo Ralph Lauren / RL 15,938 172.60 25% 4,680 11% 5% 5% 25x 21x 7.4x
4 priceline.com / PCLN 27,134 545.04 17% 1,467 >100% 3% 5% 24x 18x >9.9x
5 Express Scripts / ESRX 24,408 50.17 12% 13,779 -5% 3% 5% 17x 14x n/m
6 Dollar General / DG 14,680 42.89 4% 15,341 -3% 4% 4% 18x 16x n/m
7 Visa / V 92,635 113.90 12% 4,797 >100% <1% 4% 19x 16x >9.9x
8 Crown Castle / CCI 14,029 49.31 10% 10,584 -13% 4% 3% 62x 43x n/m
9 Las Vegas Sands / LVS 42,367 51.59 21% 9,697 32% 1% 3% 20x 17x 5.7x
10 NetApp / NTAP 14,231 39.69 9% 12,199 4% 3% 3% 17x 14x 5.4x
New Positions Sold Out Positions
Baidu.com / BIDU
eBay / EBAY
El Paso Corp. / EP
FMC Technologies / FTI
Green Mtn Coffee / GMCR
Kinder Morgan / KMI
Liberty Media / LMCA
Lululemon Athletica / LULU
Medco Health / MHS
Michael Kors / KORS
V.F. Corp. / VFC
W.R. Grace / GRA
Willis Group / WSH
Bed Bath & Beyond / BBBY
Citigroup / C
Coca-Cola / KO
Dollar Tree / DLTR
Estee Lauder / EL
Flavors & Fragrances / IFF
Goodrich Corp. / GR
Grifols / GRFS
Liberty Starz / LSTZA
NII Holdings / NIHD
Royal Caribbean / RCL
Schlumberger / SLB
U.S. Bancorp / USB
United Technologies / UTX
Yum! Brands / YUM
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*
Portfolio size $15 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 45%
Median market value $11 billion
Average market value $32 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 18x
Median P/E (next FY) 16x
Median P / tangible book 4.8x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology38%
Services30%
Consumer Cyclical
14%
Other19%
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Markel Gayner (Tom Gayner) Tom Gayner has been President of Markel Gayner Asset Management since 1990 and EVP and CIO of Markel, a Richmond, Virginia-based international property and casualty insurance holding company, since 2004. Tom has been a disciplined steward of capital on behalf of Markel shareholders, and his long-term investment record is one of the best in the business.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Markel Gayner
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Fairfax Financial / FRFHF 8,590 421.00 -2% 279 0% 1% 6% 10x 20x 1.1x
2 Brookfield Asset / BAM 36,475 30.98 13% 3,102 0% <1% 5% n/a n/a 4.3x
3 Union Bankshares / UBSH 368 14.09 6% 3,505 0% 13% 3% 14x 13x 1.1x
4 Investors Title / ITIC 93 44.00 23% 229 0% 11% 1% n/a n/a .9x
5 Exxon Mobil / XOM 401,671 83.80 -1% 811 7% <1% 4% 10x 9x 2.6x
6 Wal-Mart / WMT 211,989 61.90 4% 1,086 1% <1% 4% 14x 13x 4.5x
7 Paychex / PAYX 11,347 31.31 4% 146 >100% <1% 0% 21x 19x >9.9x
8 Louisiana-Pacific / LPX 1,098 8.06 0% 107 88% <1% 0% n/m n/m 1.1x
9 Expeditors Int’l / EXPD 9,124 43.03 5% 48 >100% <1% 0% 24x 21x 4.7x
10 Nicholas Financial / NICK 160 13.35 4% 154 84% 1% 0% n/a n/a 1.2x1
Markel acquired UBSH shares in connection with a merger of a Markel subsidiary with First Market Bank, a private company in which Markel was a shareholder.
Top Holdings of Markel Gayner – By Dollar Value
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent from Recent from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Dec. 30 (‘000) Sep. 30 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 CarMax / KMX 6,777 29.91 -2% 5,191 0% 2% 8% 17x 16x 2.6x
2 Fairfax Financial / FRFHF 8,590 421.00 -2% 279 0% 1% 6% 10x 20x 1.1x
3 Diageo / DEO 58,691 93.40 7% 1,247 0% <1% 6% 16x 14x n/m
4 Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A 194,903 117,980.00 3% 1 -52% <1% 6% 17x 15x 2.0x
5 Brookfield Asset / BAM 36,475 30.98 13% 3,102 0% <1% 5% n/a n/a 4.3x
6 Exxon Mobil / XOM 401,671 83.80 -1% 811 7% <1% 4% 10x 9x 2.6x
7 Wal-Mart / WMT 211,989 61.90 4% 1,086 1% <1% 4% 14x 13x 4.5x
8 Walt Disney / DIS 74,293 41.45 11% 1,538 0% <1% 3% 14x 12x >9.9x
9 UPS / UPS 74,005 76.69 5% 741 0% <1% 3% 16x 14x >9.9x
10 Marriott / MAR 11,971 35.72 22% 1,407 0% <1% 3% 26x 23x n/m
New Positions Sold Out Positions
DreamWorks / DWA
Loews Corp. / L
Marriott Vacations / VAC
McCormick / MKC
Mosaic Company / MOS
SEI Investments / SEIC
Vodafone / VOD
Campbell Soup / CPB
EnCana / ECA
Portfolio Metrics*
Sector Weightings*, **
Portfolio size $1.9 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 49%
Median market value $19 billion
Average market value $49 billion
Median P/E (this FY) 16x
Median P/E (next FY) 14x
Median P / tangible book 2.8x
*Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**A large portion of Markel Corp.’s asset value may be attributed to holdings
that are not publicly traded and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
Services35%
Financial26%
Consumer Non-Cyclical
10%
Other30%