mapping for the next millennium how crimerisk™ scores are formed

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Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed CDS Business Mapping CDS Business Mapping

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CrimeRisk Scores F Demonstrate the likelihood of crimes occurring in specific areas across the US F Scores range from –Score of 100 is equal to the national average Examples: u Score of 200 is 2x the national average u Score of 5 is extremely low

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Page 1: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

Mapping for the Next Millennium

How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

CDS Business MappingCDS Business Mapping

Page 2: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

Criminological and Policy Theory dictates that for a particular area, there is a correlation between predicted crime levels and the amount of social disorganization and decline

Crime Score data is modeled by Applied Geographic Solutions (AGS) using techniques much like those used to predict economic trends and weather

Basic Premise of Crime Scores

Page 3: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

CrimeRisk Scores Demonstrate the likelihood of crimes

occurring in specific areas across the US Scores range from 1-2000

– Score of 100 is equal to the national average

Examples: Score of 200 is 2x the national average Score of 5 is extremely low

Page 4: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

How the Model Is Built: Demographic Clusters are related to crime scores

– According to geodemographic segmentation, people tend to gravitate towards communities of similar backgrounds, interests, and means

Demographic Clusters break people down into 65 groups based on characteristics such as:

Age Income Education Level Rural vs. Urban Family Status Employment Housing Characteristics

* race and ethnicity are NOT factors in building these scores

Page 5: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

Crime Statistics:

The FBI collects data from about 16,000 law enforcement jurisdictions at city, county, and state levels

The FBI then compiles the data into its annual Uniform Crime Report (UCR)

Virtually all law enforcement agencies participate

FBI Uniform Crime Reports, Local Police Data, FBI Uniform Crime Reports, Local Police Data, National Crime SurveysNational Crime Surveys

Page 6: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

Correlating the Statistics Crime data is correlated for each cluster An average score is determined for each cluster The scores are calculated for each Census Block

Group by looking at the demographic make-up (% of each cluster) in each block

Page 7: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

Indexes Produced Aggregate Crime Index

– Crimes Against Persons (Combines the 4 below) Murder Rape Robbery Assault

– Crimes Against Property (Combines the 3 below) Burglary Larceny Motor Vehicle Theft

Page 8: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

National Averages 2001: latest fully published report per 100,000

– Murder  5.6– Rape 31.8– Robbery 148.5– Assault 318.5– Burglary 740.8– Theft 2484.6– Motor Vehicle Theft 430.6

Page 9: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

Crime Score DistributionBased upon Population

43%

24%

19%

13%1%

0-49

50-99

100-199200-499

500+

Scores

Copyright© 2004, CDS Business Mapping, LLC.All Rights Reserved.

Page 10: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

RiskMeter Sample Report

Page 11: Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

Questions?Questions?For Further Information, Contact

CDS Business Mapping

67 Broad St - 6th Floor

Boston, MA 02109

617-737-4444

www.cdsys.com

www.riskmeter.com