mapping for the next millennium how crimerisk™ scores are formed
DESCRIPTION
CrimeRisk Scores F Demonstrate the likelihood of crimes occurring in specific areas across the US F Scores range from –Score of 100 is equal to the national average Examples: u Score of 200 is 2x the national average u Score of 5 is extremely lowTRANSCRIPT
Mapping for the Next Millennium
How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed
CDS Business MappingCDS Business Mapping
Criminological and Policy Theory dictates that for a particular area, there is a correlation between predicted crime levels and the amount of social disorganization and decline
Crime Score data is modeled by Applied Geographic Solutions (AGS) using techniques much like those used to predict economic trends and weather
Basic Premise of Crime Scores
CrimeRisk Scores Demonstrate the likelihood of crimes
occurring in specific areas across the US Scores range from 1-2000
– Score of 100 is equal to the national average
Examples: Score of 200 is 2x the national average Score of 5 is extremely low
How the Model Is Built: Demographic Clusters are related to crime scores
– According to geodemographic segmentation, people tend to gravitate towards communities of similar backgrounds, interests, and means
Demographic Clusters break people down into 65 groups based on characteristics such as:
Age Income Education Level Rural vs. Urban Family Status Employment Housing Characteristics
* race and ethnicity are NOT factors in building these scores
Crime Statistics:
The FBI collects data from about 16,000 law enforcement jurisdictions at city, county, and state levels
The FBI then compiles the data into its annual Uniform Crime Report (UCR)
Virtually all law enforcement agencies participate
FBI Uniform Crime Reports, Local Police Data, FBI Uniform Crime Reports, Local Police Data, National Crime SurveysNational Crime Surveys
Correlating the Statistics Crime data is correlated for each cluster An average score is determined for each cluster The scores are calculated for each Census Block
Group by looking at the demographic make-up (% of each cluster) in each block
Indexes Produced Aggregate Crime Index
– Crimes Against Persons (Combines the 4 below) Murder Rape Robbery Assault
– Crimes Against Property (Combines the 3 below) Burglary Larceny Motor Vehicle Theft
National Averages 2001: latest fully published report per 100,000
– Murder 5.6– Rape 31.8– Robbery 148.5– Assault 318.5– Burglary 740.8– Theft 2484.6– Motor Vehicle Theft 430.6
Crime Score DistributionBased upon Population
43%
24%
19%
13%1%
0-49
50-99
100-199200-499
500+
Scores
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RiskMeter Sample Report
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