mapping the occupational destinations of new graduates ... · socio-economic backgrounds are more...

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Mapping the occupational destinations of new graduates

Research report

October 2013*

Lindsey Macmillan and Anna Vignoles

Centre for Analysis of Youth Transitions (CAYT)

Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission Sanctuary Buildings 20 Great Smith Street London SW1P 3BT [email protected]

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* This report was revised in November 2013 to correct a factual inaccuracy (see Erratum on page 10).

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Contents

Centre for Analysis of Youth Transisitions (CAYT) 4

Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission (SMCP) 4

Table of figures 5

Executive summary 8

Findings 9

Policy implications 10

Introduction 11

Research questions 11

Data 12

Model 13

Results 14

Descriptive statistics 14

Regression results 18

Conclusions 27

References 33

Appendix A 34

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Prepared by:

Dr Lindsey Macmillan, Institute of Education Professor Anna Vignoles, University of Cambridge

Centre for Analysis of Youth Transitions (CAYT)

The Centre for Analysis of Youth Transitions (CAYT) is an independent research centre with

funding from the Department for Education. It is a partnership between leading researchers from

the Institute of Education, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and the National Centre for Social

Research.

Prepared for:

Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission (SMCP)

The Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission is an advisory non-departmental public body

(NDPB) of the Department for Education, the Department for Work & Pensions and the Cabinet

Office.

The Commission was established with a remit to:

publish an annual report setting out progress made in improving social mobility and

reducing child poverty in Great Britain;

provide published advice to ministers at their request on social mobility and child poverty;

and

act as an advocate for social mobility beyond government by challenging employers, the

professions and universities amongst others to play their part in improving life chances.

This research was commissioned to explore the family background of graduates in high status

occupations and look at whether the transitions made by new graduates as they leave university

differ by social background. A better understanding of these early transitions may help understand

when the socio-economic inequalities in top professions begin and whether this is due to

differences in the career trajectories of graduates from different social backgrounds.

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Table of figures

Figure 1 Graduates entering high status occupations and post graduate study 6 months

and 3 years after graduation 14

Figure 2 Graduates entering selected high status professions 3 years after graduation 15

Figure 3 Social origins of graduates entering specific occupational groups 3 years after

graduation 16

Figure 4 Graduates undertaking post-graduate study 6 months after graduation by initial

degree subject area 17

Figure 5 Graduates undertaking post-graduate study 6 months after graduation by

professional occupation 18

Figure 6 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 6

months after graduation by socio-economic background characteristics 20


years after graduation by socio-economic background characteristics 22

Figure 8 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post graduate study 6 months after

graduation by socio-economic background characteristics 24


months after graduation by socio-economic background characteristics without and with

controlling for postgraduate study at 6 months 26

Figure 10 Likelihood of graduates entering selected high status professions 6 months after

graduation by socio-economic background characteristics (MALES) 29

Figure 11 Likelihood of graduates entering selected high status professions 6 months after

graduation by socio-economic background characteristics (FEMALES) 31


months after graduation, by parental occupation 34


months after graduation, by HE participation 34


months after graduation, by type of school attended 35


months after graduation, all variables together (SCOTLAND only) 35


months after graduation, all variables together 36

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Figure 17 Likelihood of graduates entering high status occupations (SOC Group 2) 6

months after graduation, by parental occupation 37


months after graduation, by HE participation 37


months after graduation, by type of school attended 38


months after graduation, all variables together (SCOTLAND only) 38


months after graduation, all variables together 39


years after graduation, by parental occupation 40


years after graduation, by HE participation 40


years after graduation, by type of school attended 41


years after graduation, all variables together (SCOTLAND only) 41


years after graduation, all variables together 42

Figure 27 Likelihood of graduates entering high status occupations (SOC Group 2) 3 years

after graduation, by parental occupation 43


after graduation, by HE participation 43


after graduation, by type of school attended 44


after graduation, all variables together (Scotland only) 44


after graduation, all variables together 45

Figure 32 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post-graduate study at 6 months, by

parental occupation 46

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Figure 33 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post-graduate study at 6 months, by HE

participation 46

Figure 34 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post-graduate study at 6 months, by

type of school attended 47

Figure 35 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post-graduate study at 6 months, all

variables together (SCOTLAND only) 47

Figure 36 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post-graduate study at 6 months, all

variables together 48

Figure 37 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) with

and without post-grad dummy for sample where observe post-graduate status, by socio-

economic background characteristics 49

Figure 38 Likelihood of graduates entering high status occupations (SOC Group 2) with and

without post-grad dummy for sample where observe post-graduate status, by socio-

economic background characteristics 50


years after graduation including marginal effects for control variables 51

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Executive summary

Graduates continue to earn more than non-graduates on average and for many a degree is the

route to a high paid, and often enjoyable job. Successful graduates will often secure these higher

earnings by entering one of the more prestigious and higher paid professions.

Access to these higher status and higher paid professions is unequal, with those from less

advantaged backgrounds being less likely to secure such roles, as discussed by Alan Milburn in

his 2009 report on fair access to the professions and his subsequent update. Whilst individuals

from more advantaged socio-economic backgrounds continue to be more likely to secure a higher

paid professional role, this will act as a break on social mobility, a point recognised in the recent

Government White Paper Opening Doors, Breaking Barriers: A Strategy for Social Mobility.

This report examines the transitions that new graduates make as they leave university and enter

the labour market. It investigates the extent to which on exit from university, students from different

socio-economic backgrounds are more or less likely to enter a status occupation. For the purpose

of this report, a high status occupation is defined as those in Standard Occupation Classification

(SOC 2000) Group 1 and 2, however the report focuses on access to the very high status

occupations (SOC Group 1) which include higher managerial occupations. This is however, a

relatively crude measure, encompassing some roles that we may not define as high status. For

some analyses we focus in on specific high status professions, such as the legal profession. A key

problem though is to clarify more precisely what we mean by high status and in these data there

are problems with small sample sizes when we consider individual occupations. Future work could

usefully try to resolve these limitations.

The report uses data on first degree graduates leaving higher education in 2006/7 who have been

surveyed at 6 months and 3 years after graduation. The data are from the Higher Education

Statistics Agency Longitudinal Destination of Leavers from Higher Education and includes

students graduating from Scottish, English and Welsh institutions.

The measures of a student’s socio-economic background used in the report are:

The highest earning parent’s most recent occupation on the student’s entry to university as

measured by the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SEC).

A proxy measure of socio-economic disadvantage, namely whether or not the student lived

in an area with low HE participation when they applied to go to university.

Whether or not they attended a state school just prior to going to university.

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Findings

Focusing just on the 6 months immediately after graduation, a graduate’s socio-economic status is

not associated with their chances of entering the highest status occupations, except via the

positive effect that it has on a person’s academic achievement, degree subject, degree class and

university choice. In other words, there is no evidence that socio-economic status is playing an

independent role in helping graduates secure access to the highest status occupations straight

after graduation. That said, those who attended private school do have a better chance of entering

these occupations, even compared to individuals from state schools with similar characteristics

and similar levels of education achievement.

3 years after graduation, the situation is different. More socio-economically advantaged graduates

(those whose parents have higher status occupations themselves or those who lived in areas with

higher levels of HE participation) are more likely to be in the highest status occupations. This is

particularly so for males. It also remains the case that those who attended state schools are less

likely to access the highest status occupations. Comparing two similar students in terms of where

they went to university, their prior attainment, degree subject choice and degree attainment, a

student who attended a private school has a 3 percentage points higher chance of entering into

the highest status occupations than a student who went to a state school. To provide some sort of

comparison, one might note that males are around 2.3 percentage points more likely to enter the

highest status occupations 3 years after graduation as compared to females. Black graduates are

2.7 percentage points less likely to enter the highest status occupations than their white peers and

Scottish domiciled students are 4 percentage points less likely.

It is important to note that we do observe a large socio-economic gap in the likelihood of entering

the highest status occupations, even 6 months after graduation. However, this gap is eliminated at

6 months and reduced at 3 years after graduation when we control for other differences across

graduates; specifically, prior achievement, degree subject, degree class and institution. Hence one

of the main ways that socio-economic advantage translates into higher occupational status is via

its effect on educational achievement.

We should also note that the independent impact from a pupil’s socio-economic background on

their chance of entering the highest status occupations is observed only for English and Welsh

students. The independent effect from socio-economic background is not observed when we focus

our analysis on Scottish domiciled students only.

We also confirmed that more advantaged graduates are more likely to undertake postgraduate

study. At 2-3 years after graduation it is perhaps too soon to see the effect of taking post graduate

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study but we would anticipate that in the longer term the socio-economic gap in access to

postgraduate study would again translate into a larger socio-economic gap in access to the most

prestigious occupations.

Attending a private school appears to increase the likelihood of a graduate securing a role in the

highest status occupations though with this type of analysis this does not necessarily mean a

causal relationship. This research does however present a challenge to those top professions who

argue that they only hire the most qualified students. Our evidence shows that even if we compare

students from the same institution type, taking the same subjects and with the same degree class,

socio-economic status and private schooling in particular still affects a student’s chances of

entering the highest status occupations.

Policy implications

In the short term a socio-economic gap in the job status of graduates is not observed. This may be

because 6 months is too soon to observe graduates and many are not in their final occupational

choice, and indeed many are undergoing postgraduate study. Given that socio-economic

background does play a role in whether or not a student undertakes further study, this implies that

we need to wait a few years after graduation before we can observe the extent of any socio-

economic gap in occupational achievement.

The role of socio-economic background is stronger for males. This may reflect the fact that women

are more likely to work in the public sector and in occupations where perhaps the entry and

promotion criteria are more clearly defined.

Our results indicate a persistent advantage from having attended a private school. This raises

questions about whether the advantage that private school graduates have is because they are

better socially or academically prepared, have better networks or make different occupational

choices. Whilst we do control for formal differences in academic achievement, we cannot model

whether privately educated students are better prepared for job interviews and for the world of

work directly. Clearly though this issue merits further investigation.

Lastly, we do not observe such strong socio-economic gaps for Scottish domiciled students, again

this may indicate that the Scottish education system or labour market may work somewhat

differently and this too merits further investigation.

Erratum: a previous version of this report referred to the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SEC) as the classification used to describe graduates’ destination occupations. This was incorrect. It should have referred to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Apologies for this error.

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Introduction

There is extensive research showing that the average return to a degree remains high.1 Graduates

continue to earn more than non-graduates on average and for many, a degree is the route to high

paid, and often enjoyable job. Many successful graduates will secure these higher earnings by

entering one of the more prestigious and higher paid professions. Yet we also know that access to

these professions is unequal, with those from less advantaged backgrounds being less able to

make the transition from the education system into these higher paying, prestigious and more

stable jobs. This problem was clearly identified by Alan Milburn in his 2009 report on fair access to

the professions.2 His recent update confirms that there is much still to be done in terms of

achieving fair access to professions.3 Specifically, individuals from more advantaged socio-

economic backgrounds continue to be more likely to secure a higher paid professional role, with

many employers recruiting from a limited range of universities and degree subjects. This

undoubtedly has implications for social mobility, a point recognised in the recent White Paper on

Social Mobility.4

What is less clear is how the transitions that new graduates make as they leave university

influence their ability to access the professions and whether better understanding of these early

transitions can help us reduce the socio-economic gap in access to the top professions. Below we

examine the early occupational transitions made by new and recent graduates. We investigate the

extent to which on exit from university, students from different socio-economic backgrounds

achieve different outcomes, specifically postgraduate study and access to high status occupations

(defined as Group 1 and Group 2 SOC occupations) and specific high status professions identified

in the Milburn report.

Research questions

We investigate the occupational destinations of new graduates 6 months after leaving university,

and again at 3 years after graduation.

We address the following research questions:

1. To what extent are new graduates from lower socio-economic backgrounds less likely to be

in a high status occupation 6 months after graduation (once we control for other differences

across graduates in their characteristics and educational achievement)?

1 See Bratti and Manchini (2003); Bratti et al. (2005); Chevalier (2010,2011), Walker and Zhu (2005, 2011).

2 Milburn, A. (2009) Unleashing Aspiration: The Final Report of the Panel on Fair Access to the Professions. London: Cabinet Office.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/media/227102/fair-access.pdf 3 Milburn, A. (2012) Fair Access to Professional Careers: A progress report by the Independent Reviewer on Social Mobility and Child Poverty.

London: Cabinet Office. http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/sites/default/files/resources/IR_FairAccess_acc2.pdf 4 Cabinet Office (2011) Opening Doors, Breaking Barriers: A Strategy for Social Mobility. London: Cabinet Office.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61964/opening-doors-breaking-barriers.pdf

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/media/227102/fair-access.pdf

http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/sites/default/files/resources/IR_FairAccess_acc2.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61964/opening-doors-breaking-barriers.pdf

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2. To what extent are new graduates from lower socio-economic backgrounds less likely to be

in high status occupation 3 years after graduation? In other words, is the socio-economic

gap in the high status occupational groups greater 3 years after graduation?

3. Do the characteristics of students, such as degree subject, institution of study or gender

explain much of the socio-economic gap in the likelihood of entering a high status

occupation?

4. How important is post-graduate study as a route by which higher socio-economic status

students enter high status occupations?

Data

We use data on first degree graduates leaving higher education in 2006/7. The data are from the

Higher Education Statistics Agency Longitudinal Destination of Leavers from Higher Education.

The socio-economic background of each student is measured using 3 distinct variables.

The highest earning parent’s most recent occupation on the student’s entry to university as

measured by the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SEC).

A proxy measure of socio-economic disadvantage, namely whether or not the student lived

in an area with low HE participation when they applied to go to university.

Whether or not they attended a state school just prior to going to university.

The occupational destination of each student is measured in two ways.

Firstly, we define high status occupations as those in National Standard Occupation

Classification (SOC 2000) Groups 1 and 2 (see Figure 1 for descriptive statistics on these

categories). Most of the analysis presented in the main body of the report focuses

specifically on access to the very high status occupations, i.e. those in SOC Group 1.

We then investigate specific high status professions using a similar list to those considered

in the Milburn report based on their SOC2000 occupational code.

These measures do appear however, to encompass some roles that we may not define as high

status. A key problem though is to clarify more precisely what we mean by high status and in

these data there are problems with small sample sizes when we consider individual occupations.

Future work could usefully try to resolve these limitations.

We also consider the role of post-graduate study as both an outcome and a potential mediator in

accessing high status occupations. Post-graduate study is observed in the six month follow up

survey. We define this as individuals who report ‘further study only’ as their main activity, who are

studying towards a postgraduate diploma or a higher degree (both research and taught) and who

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are registered on a course or a research programme. These individuals are therefore full-time

registered post-graduate students.

We restrict our analysis to younger graduates, i.e. between the ages of 18 and 25. We do this

because many mature graduates will have had a career prior to entering higher education and

without good data on that previous career we cannot easily compare occupational trajectories for

these mature students. We consider whether our main results are consistent across girls and boys

and in England and Wales compared to Scotland.

Model

We use regression analyses to determine the likelihood of students from different socio-economic

backgrounds entering a high status occupation. This allows us to take account of the many factors

that influence occupational destination. This is important because whilst it may appear that lower

socio-economic status graduates are less likely to access high status occupations this could be

due to other factors. In particular it may be because they entered HE with lower prior achievement

(on average), attended different universities and chose different degree subjects. Our models

control for these factors.

Since the outcome variables are binary (whether or not the student entered a high status

occupation for example), we estimate the models using a probit specification. This class of models

produce results that are easily interpreted and in the analysis tables we present “marginal effects”.

These marginal effects can be interpreted as the percentage point difference in the likelihood of

entering a high status occupation for students from different socio-economic backgrounds

compared to a base group. We discuss the magnitude of the results further below in the results

section.

The specific factors we control for in the regression models are: gender, ethnicity, age, region of

work, UCAS tariff point scores, degree subject, degree class and institution type (Russell Group,

Oxbridge, 1994 etc.). Controlling for these factors enables us to ask whether students from

different socio-economic backgrounds who are otherwise similar across these characteristics, are

more or less likely to enter a high status occupation.

We must note however, that our evidence is associational. We cannot prove that it is the student’s

socio-economic status per se that prevents them from securing a high status occupation. It could

be that other factors are the causal factors. For example, there may be unobserved differences in

students’ aspirations or indeed their ability by socio-economic background that drive the

relationships we see. Hence some caution is needed when interpreting the results. Nonetheless,

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with these rich data, we can be reasonably confident that the associations we observe are

meaningful from a policy perspective and can inform policy.

Results

Descriptive statistics

Figure 1 shows the number and proportion of graduates at 6 months and at 3 years after

graduation who are employed in high status occupations (SOC Groups 1 and 2) and registered in

full-time post-graduate study at 6 months. Figure 2 shows the number and proportion of graduates

in specific high status professions at 3 years.

At 6 months after graduation, around 50% of the sample was in high status occupations, i.e.

higher and lower professional, managerial and administrative roles. By 3 years after graduation,

this had increased to around 65%.These are however, quite broad categories of jobs and will

include some may not be considered high status occupations, e.g. para legal roles.

Just under 15% of the sample was enrolled in full-time post-graduate education at the 6 months

follow up study.

The proportions entering specific high status professions 3 years after graduation were smaller,

though it is striking that more than one in ten had entered the field of education, whilst just 1.5%

were in a scientists.

Figure 1 Graduates entering high status occupations and post graduate study 6 months and 3 years after

graduation

6 months after graduation 3 years after graduation

Occupational destination Number % Number %

SOC Group 1 occupations

(Managers and senior officials)

1,781 8.5 3,352 13.4

SOC Group 2 occupations

(Professional occupations)

8,145 38.7 12,648 50.6

Full time postgraduate study 4,460 14.8

Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (2011) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (2006/07).

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Figure 2 Graduates entering selected high status professions 3 years after graduation

Professional occupation Number %

Life Science 939 3.8

Legal 586 2.4

Business 1,130 4.5

Media 1,108 4.4

Public 500 2.0

Scientists 382 1.5

Education 3,101 12.4

Built Environment 2,415 9.7


The social origins of those entering into high status occupations are shown in Figure 3. The table

describes the proportion of individuals entering into the highest status occupational group (SOC

Group 1) three years after graduation, compared to those entering into SOC Groups 2-9

occupations by their parents’ occupation, whether they lived in a low participation area and

whether they attended a state school.

Those who worked in the highest status occupational group 3 years after graduating were slightly

more likely to come from a family with professional or lower managerial parents than those

working in a lower status occupation group (50.1% compared to 47.8%). They were also slightly

less likely to come from a low participation area (6.4% compared to 7.7%) and to have attended a

state school (84.1% compared to 87.9%) than those working in a lower occupation grouping.

Although there is a large proportion of the sample that are missing information on the parents’

occupation (19%), the proportion missing is fairly similar across the group that achieved the

highest status occupations and the group that did not. Missing dummies are included throughout

the analysis for each of the three socio-economic status (SES) indicators.

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Figure 3 Social origins of graduates entering specific occupational groups 3 years after graduation

SOC Group 1

3 years after graduation

SOC Group 2-9

3 years after graduation

Number % Number %

Parental Occupation

Higher managerial, administrative

and professional

714 21.3 4,790 22.2

Lower managerial, administrative

and professional

964 28.8 5,531 25.6

Intermediate 409 12.2 2,616 12.1

Small employers and own account workers

207 6.2 1,326 6.1

Lower supervisory and technical 115 3.4 854 4.0

Semi-routine 233 7.0 1,618 7.5

Routine 92 2.7 800 3.7

Never worked and long-term

unemployed

3 0.1 25 0.1

Parental occupation missing 615 18.3 4,069 18.8

Area level of HE participation

Low participation 204 6.4 1,602 7.7

Low participation missing 159 4.7 863 4.0

Type of school attended

State school 2,446 84.1 16,702 87.9

State school missing 444 13.3 2,628 12.2


We also analyse the proportion of graduates who undertake postgraduate study immediately after

leaving university. Figure 4 shows the proportions of graduates undertaking postgraduate study by

subject of initial degree. Clearly those in the sciences, maths and computing, social studies, law,

linguistics, languages and history are most likely to undertake postgraduate study. The proportion

continuing to postgraduate level is extremely high (one in five) in the physical sciences.

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Figure 4 Graduates undertaking post-graduate study 6 months after graduation by initial degree subject area

Degree subject % studying for post graduate

qualifications

Medicine and dentistry 1.7

Subjects allied to medicine 3.1

Biological sciences 15.3

Veterinary science, agriculture and related subjects 6.1

Physical sciences 21.4

Maths and computer sciences 10.5

Engineering 9.2

Technologies 6.8

Architecture, building and planning 5.6

Social studies 11.4

Law 15.4

Business and administrative studies 5.2

Communications 4.7

Linguistics, Classics 18.4

European Languages 16.5

Other Languages 15.1

Historical and philosophical studies 18.4

Creative arts and design 8.0

Education 3.5

Combined 6.3


Figure 5 shows the proportions of graduates who were enrolled in postgraduate study at 6 months

after graduation, by occupation at 3 years. Among those observed in a science occupation at 3

years after graduation, one in ten undertook postgraduate study. By contrast, around one quarter

of those observed to be in law at 3 years after graduation undertook postgraduate study.

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Figure 5 Graduates undertaking post-graduate study 6 months after graduation by area of professional occupation at 3 years

Professional occupation % studying for post graduate qualifications

6 months after graduation

Life Science 3.7

Legal 24.3

Business 8.1

Media 6.4

Public 5.4

Scientists 10.6

Education 15.4

Environment 6.2


Regression results

We now consider the association between the socio-economic background of the graduate and

their own occupation at 6 months and 3 years after graduation. We use a multiple regression

approach, controlling for many factors at once, as described above. Full tables are at Appendix A.

Figure 6 below addresses the question: to what extent are new graduates from lower socio-

economic backgrounds less likely to enter the highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 6

months after graduation? The table shows the strength of the relationship between parental socio-

economic status, whether the individual lived in an area with low HE participation rate and whether

they attended a private school, and the likelihood that they are working in the highest status

occupations.

The first column shows the raw associations. The second column controls for characteristics that

influence occupational choice, such as gender, age, ethnicity and region of work at 6 months. The

third column controls for prior achievement of the individual on entry into higher education (UCAS

tariff), degree subject, degree class and type of higher education institution attended (i.e. Russell

Group, 1994 institution, Oxbridge etc.).

Across all three models, there is little association between a graduate’s socio-economic

background and their occupation at 6 months after graduation. In column three we see that only

the coefficient on the state school variable remains significant. The coefficient can be interpreted

to mean that, controlling for social class differences, attainment differences and the full range of

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other factors, those attending a state school are around 1 percentage point less likely to gain

access to the highest status occupations 6 months after graduation.

In columns four and five the same full model is estimated separately for men and women. We see

that the negative association between attending a state school and entering the highest status

occupations is large and statistically significant for males only. Male graduates who went to a state

school were around 2 percentage points less likely to enter the highest status occupations 6

months after graduation, even after allowing for differences in their academic achievement, degree

subject, higher education institution type etc.

We also modelled graduates’ access to SOC Group 2 occupations (the second highest status

occupations) and found that individuals who attended private schools were less likely to enter

occupations as compared to individuals from state schools (results in appendix).

These results only hold for English and Welsh students. When we consider the relationship

between socio-economic background and occupational status for Scottish domiciled students we

find no evidence of a socio-economic gap in access to the highest status occupations (results in

appendix). This is an interesting finding and one we note in the executive summary merits further

investigation.

In summary, at 6 months after graduation, male graduates in England and Wales who attended a

private school were more likely to be the highest status occupations than otherwise similar

graduates who attended a state school.

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Figure 6 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 6 months after graduation by socio-economic background characteristics

Raw associations Controlling for

demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

MALES only

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

FEMALES only

Higher managerial,

administrative and professional

0.000 (.012) -0.001 (.011) 0.007 (.010) 0.015 (.018) 0.001 (.011)

Lower managerial,


0.016 (.012) 0.015 (.012) 0.017 (.010) 0.027 (.018) 0.013 (.012)

Intermediate 0.013 (.013) 0.012 (.013) 0.012 (.011) 0.007 (.018) 0.014 (.013)


0.023 (.015) 0.024 (.015)* 0.019 (.013)* 0.017 (.021) 0.019 (.015)

Lower supervisory and

technical

0.000 (.015) 0.001 (.015) 0.005 (.012) 0.009 (.022) 0.005 (.015)

Semi-routine 0.005 (.013) 0.003 (.013) 0.005 (.011) 0.003 (.019) 0.008 (.013)

Routine Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline


unemployed

-0.015 (.066) -0.027 (.056) -0.028 (.039) -0.012 (.071) dropped

Low HE participation area -0.008 (.007) -0.009 (.007) -0.009 (.006) -0.007 (.010) -0.010 (.006)

Attended state school -0.010 (.007) -0.006 (.006) -0.010 (.006)* -0.022 (.009)** 0.000 (.007)

N 21,026 21,026 21,026 8,944 12,077

Adjusted R-squared 0.002 0.010 0.050 0.055 0.057

Source: HESA (2011) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (2006/07). Demographics: Age, ethnicity, region of work at 6 months. Prior attainment: Institution type, Oxbridge, UCAS tariff, subject, attainment. Missing dummies included for parental SEC, low participation and state school indicators.

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Figure 7 below addresses the question: to what extent are new graduates from lower socio-

economic backgrounds less likely to be in the highest status occupations 3 years after graduation?

Specifically, the table shows the strength of the relationship between parental socio-economic

status, whether the individual lived in an area with low HE participation rate and whether they

attended a private school, and the likelihood that they are working the highest status occupations

(SOC Group 1) 3 years after graduation.

The first column shows the raw associations. The second column controls for other factors that

also influence occupational choice, such as gender, age, ethnicity and region of work at 3 years.

The third column controls for prior achievement of the individual on entry into higher education

(UCAS tariff), degree subject, degree class and type of higher education institution attended (i.e.

Russell Group, 1994 institution, Oxbridge etc.).

The results from column three are striking. By 3 years after graduation, and allowing for other

factors that influence occupation, there is a large statistically significant socio-economic gap in the

likelihood of securing a role in the highest status occupations. Individuals from a family with a

higher socio-economic status are more likely to work in the highest status occupations. By

contrast, those who originate from areas with low HE participation and who attended state schools

are significantly less likely to secure such occupations. The magnitude of these effects are such

that an individual who has a parent who is a manager and who attended a private school is around

7 percentage points more likely to enter the highest status occupations. The results by gender

imply that the social gradient in the likelihood of securing a high status occupation is much steeper

for males. Thus male graduates from a managerial background who attended a private school are

around 10 percentage points more likely to enter the highest status occupations (SOC Group 1).

To provide some sort of comparison, one might note that males are around 2.3 percentage points

more likely to achieve a high status occupation 3 years after graduation as compared to females.

Black graduates are 2.7 percentage points less likely to enter a high status occupation than their

white peers and Scottish domiciled students are 4 percentage points less likely.

These results are robust to a model which compares graduates from the same institution rather

than the same type of institution (i.e. to the inclusion of institution fixed effects). As was found for

the 6 months results, these findings are specific to England and Wales. There is no evidence of a

socio-economic gradient for those living in Scotland.

We also modelled the likelihood of a graduate securing either a SOC Group 1 or 2 occupation, 3

years after graduation. The results suggested a statistically insignificant association between

socio-economic background and securing a SOC Group 2 occupation.

22

Figure 7 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 3 years after graduation by socio-economic background characteristics


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

MALES only

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

FEMALES only

Higher managerial,


0.023 (.014)* 0.014 (.014) 0.020 (.014) 0.034 (.023) 0.012 (.016)

Lower managerial,


0.044 (.014)*** 0.037 (.014)*** 0.039 (.014)*** 0.062 (.023)*** 0.023 (.017)

Intermediate 0.032 (.015)** 0.025 (.015)* 0.025 (.015)* 0.061 (.026)** -0.001 (.016)


0.033 (.017)** 0.032 (.017)** 0.029 (.016)* 0.053 (.029)** 0.012 (.019)

Lower supervisory and technical 0.018 (.018) 0.016 (.018) 0.017 (.017) 0.025 (.029) 0.016 (.021)

Semi-routine 0.025 (.016) 0.021 (.016) 0.019 (.015) 0.018 (.025) 0.018 (.019)



unemployed

0.003 (.071) -0.004 (.067) -0.031 (.056) -0.064 (.080) 0.003 (.083)

Low HE participation area -0.018 (.008)** -0.016 (.008)* -0.018 (.008)** -0.016 (.013) -0.018 (.010)*

Attended state school -0.037 (.007)*** -0.026 (.007)*** -0.029 (.007)*** -0.039 (.012)** -0.019 (.009)**

N 24,981 24,981 24,981 10,664 14,317


Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (2011) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (2006/07). Demographics: Age, ethnicity, region of work at 6 months. Prior attainment: Institution type, Oxbridge, UCAS tariff, subject, attainment. Missing dummies included for parental SEC, low participation and state school indicators.

23

Figure 8 below addresses the question: how important is post-graduate study as a route by which

higher socio-economic status students enter the professions?

We start by considering the relationship between socio-economic background and undertaking

postgraduate study 6 months after graduation, after controlling for other characteristics that

influence whether or not an individual undertakes postgraduate study. The first column shows the

raw associations between socio-economic background and postgraduate study. The second

column controls for other factors that also influence educational choices, such as gender, age,

ethnicity and region. The final column controls for prior achievement of the individual on entry into

higher education (UCAS tariff), degree subject, degree class, type of higher education institution

attended (i.e. Russell Group, 1994 institution, Oxbridge etc.).

Figure 8 clearly shows that type of school attended and whether someone lives in a low HE

participation area does not significantly impact on the likelihood of undertaking full-time

postgraduate study at 6 months (once we control for other factors – i.e. as shown in column 3).

However, parental socio-economic background is statistically significant. Broadly coming from a

higher SES background increases your chances of undertaking postgraduate study by 2-4

percentage points, though the results by gender indicate that this effect is largely driven by

females.

It is also the case that having an unemployed parent increases the chances of a student

undertaking full time postgraduate study. However, we only observe 5 individuals who are in full-

time postgraduate study at 6 months and who have unemployed parents. Hence this result is not

interpretable.

24

Figure 8 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post graduate study 6 months after graduation by socio-economic background characteristics


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

MALES only

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

FEMALES only

Higher managerial,


0.065 (.015)*** 0.054 (.014)*** 0.026 (.013)** -0.008 (.017) 0.051 (.019)***

Lower managerial,


0.050 (.014)*** 0.042 (.014)*** 0.023 (.013)* -0.001 (.017) 0.041 (.018)**

Intermediate 0.052 (.016)*** 0.051 (.015)*** 0.036 (.014)*** 0.021 (.020) 0.045 (.020)**


0.017 (.016) 0.009 (.015) 0.006 (.014) -0.014 (.018) 0.020 (.020)

Lower supervisory and technical 0.037 (.018)** 0.029 (.018)* 0.025 (.017) -0.014 (.020) 0.055 (.025)**

Semi-routine 0.023 (.015) 0.018 (.015) 0.012 (.014) 0.001 (.020) 0.016 (.019)



unemployed

0.058 (.077) 0.079 (.081) 0.206 (.100)*** dropped 0.420 (.132)***

Low HE participation area -0.006 (.008) -0.003 (.008) 0.004 (.008) 0.013 (.012) -0.003 (.010)

Attended state school -0.030 (.007)*** -0.031 (.007)*** -0.003 (.006) 0.017 (.008)** -0.020 (.009)**

N 30,044 30,044 30,044 12,867 17,162



25

Our interest however, is primarily in graduates’ access to the highest status occupations rather

than postgraduate study per se. Given the social gradient in access to postgraduate study

observed in Figure 8, it is important to determine whether postgraduate study is an important route

by which individuals can access high status occupations. Figure 9 below shows the likelihood of

being in the highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 3 years after graduation, controlling for

whether or not the individual undertook full time postgraduate study at 6 months. In other words,

we estimate the final model from column 3 in Figure 7 but include whether or not the graduate

undertook postgraduate study to see if this affects the coefficients on the socio-economic

background variables.

The main results that we described for Figure 7 above still hold, i.e. those who attended state

schools are significantly less likely to secure the highest status occupations and the other social

status variables are significant too even when we control for prior attainment. Interestingly, the

coefficient on postgraduate study is negative. At face value this implies that when we allow for

social background, those who have taken postgraduate study are less likely to be in the highest

status occupations. This could be because insufficient time has elapsed following the

postgraduate study to allow the individual to progress to these high status occupations. It might

also however reflect the fact that some individuals take postgraduate study because they have not

been successful in finding a job and hence it may be that these individuals are less likely to secure

a role within the highest status occupations. We have some evidence for the former explanation.

In the appendix we show a model (Figure 38) where the dependent variable is the likelihood of

securing a SOC Group 2 occupation 3 years after graduation. In that model undertaking

postgraduate study at 6 months is positively and significantly associated with securing a Group 2

occupation. Hence postgraduate study is clearly helping individuals into somewhat higher level

occupations but it may be that those who secure the very highest status occupations (SOC Group

1) just 3 years after graduating go straight into the labour market rather than detouring through

postgraduate study.

In summary, we find that allowing for whether or not an individual undertook postgraduate study

does not explain the social gradient that we see in access to the highest status occupations 3

years after graduation.

26

Figure 9 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 6 months after graduation by socio-economic background characteristics without and with controlling for postgraduate study at 6 months

Controlling for demographics

and prior attainment

Controlling for demographics

and prior attainment

Postgraduate study at 6 months -0.058 (.005)***

Higher managerial,


0.020 (.014) 0.022 (.014)

Lower managerial,


0.039 (.014)*** 0.040 (.014)***

Intermediate 0.025 (.015)* 0.027 (.015)*


0.029 (.016)* 0.030 (.016)*


technical

0.017 (.017) 0.018 (.018)

Semi-routine 0.019 (.015) 0.019 (.015)

Routine Baseline Baseline


unemployed

-0.031 (.056) -0.022 (.059)

Low HE participation area -0.018 (.008)** -0.018 (.008)**

Attended state school -0.029 (.007)*** -0.030 (.007)***

N 24981 24981

Adjusted R-squared 0.047 0.051


We also considered access to specific high status professions, as identified in the Milburn report.

We have modelled access to Life Science occupations, e.g. doctors, dentists etc., for

completeness but some caution is needed when considering these occupational groups. For many

Life Science occupations, access to a particular degree and success in that degree almost

guarantees access to the relevant medical occupation. It is therefore difficult to interpret the results

for Life Sciences.

The results for these top professions are shown below in Figures 10 and 11, separately for males

and females. For males, by and large parental socio-economic background and whether or not the

individual lived in a low HE participation area are not statistically significant predictors of whether

or not the graduate accesses one of these high status professions. However, for a number of key

27

professions (those in life sciences, management and public services) attending a state school

reduced the likelihood of a graduate entering the profession, though the effects are modest (up to

2 percentage point lower probability). Males who attended state schools are significantly more

likely to enter professions in the built environment (e.g. architecture) and science, though in the

case of the latter the magnitude of the effect is almost inconsequential.

For females, results are similar. Broadly parental socio-economic status variables are insignificant.

However, females who attended a state school are significantly less likely to enter a number of

high status professions (Life sciences, legal and management). The magnitude of these effects is

modest: individuals who attended state schools are up to 2 percentage points less likely to enter

such professions. Equally women who attended state schools were significantly more likely to

enter education, media and public service occupations.

Conclusions

The results suggest:

6 months after graduation, socio-economic background does not impact on the likelihood of

entering the highest status occupations, though those who attended private school have a

small increased probability being in the highest status occupations (particularly males);

3 years after graduation, individuals from higher socio-economic status backgrounds or who

lived in areas with higher levels of HE participation are more likely to be in the highest

status occupations. This is particularly so for males.

3 years after graduation, individuals who attended state schools are less likely to access

the highest status occupations;

All of the above results hold even when we allow for differences in prior achievement,

degree subject, degree class and institution. They also hold when we allow for

postgraduate study.

We conclude that socio-economic status does impact on the likelihood of entering the highest

status occupations. Much, but certainly not all, of this socio-economic gap arises from the impact

of socio-economic background on academic achievement, degree subject, degree class and

university choice. We also find that attending a private school has a residual positive impact on the

likelihood of securing a higher status occupation.

Therefore in the short term a socio-economic gap in the job status of graduates is not observed.

This may be because 6 months is too soon to observe graduates and many are not in their final

occupational choice, and indeed many are undergoing postgraduate study. Given that socio-

economic background does play a role in whether or not a student undertakes further study, this

28

implies that we need to wait a few years after graduation before we can observe the extent of any

socio-economic gap in occupational achievement.

The role of socio-economic background on access to the highest status occupations is stronger for

males. This may reflect the fact that women are more likely to work in the public sector and in

occupations where perhaps the entry and promotion criteria are more clearly defined.

Our results indicate a persistent advantage from having attended a private school. This raises

questions about whether the advantage that private school graduates have is because they are

better socially or academically prepared, have better networks or make different occupational

choices. Whilst we do allow for formal differences in academic achievement, we cannot model

whether privately educated students are better prepared for job interviews and for the world of

work directly. Clearly though this issue merits further investigation.

Lastly, we do not observe such strong socio-economic gaps for Scottish domiciled students, again

suggesting that the Scottish education system or labour market may work somewhat differently

and this too merits further investigation.

29

Figure 10 Likelihood of graduates entering selected high status professions 6 months after graduation by socio-economic background characteristics (MALES)

Life sciences

controlling for

demographics

Legal

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Management

and business

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Media and

creative

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Public

services

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Scientists

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Education

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Built

environment

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Higher managerial,

administrative and

professional

-0.002 (.004) 0.009 (.003) -0.008 (.009) 0.001 (.007) -0.004 (.004) 0.000 (.002) -0.000 (.010) -0.006 (.017)

Lower managerial,

administrative and

professional

-0.005 (.004) 0.002 (.003) -0.023 (.008)*** 0.001 (.007) -0.001 (.004) -0.001 (.002) 0.002 (.010) -0.002 (.017)

Intermediate -0.006 (.003) 0.001 (.003) -0.008 (.009) 0.000 (.007) -0.001 (.004) -0.002 (.002) 0.001 (.010) -0.018 (.016)


-0.005 (.004) -0.002 (.002) -0.007 (.010) -0.005 (.007) -0.004 (.004) 0.004 (.006) -0.001 (.011) -0.006 (.019)

Lower supervisory

and technical

-0.001 (.006) 0.001 (.005) -0.014 (.009) 0.001 (.009) -0.005 (.003) 0.003 (.005) 0.013 (.015) -0.026 (.017)

Semi-routine -0.005 (.004) 0.000 (.003) -0.015 (.008) 0.001 (.008) -0.003 (.004) 0.003 (.005) -0.001 (.011) 0.005 (.020)

Routine Base Base Base Base Base Base Base Base

Never worked and

long-term

unemployed

Dropped Dropped Dropped 0.021 (.041) Dropped Dropped Dropped Dropped

Low HE participation

area

-0.009 (.002)*** -0.002 (.001) -0.004 (.007) -0.010 (.003)** -0.002 (.003) 0.005 (.003) 0.001 (.007) -0.004 (.011)

Attended state

school

-0.019 (.004)*** -0.001 (.001) -0.020 (.006)*** 0.001 (.004) -0.011 (.004)*** 0.004 (.001)*** 0.007 (.006) 0.031 (.009)***

N 10,631 6,686 10,186 10,455 10,499 6,045 10,631 10,605

30

Adjusted R-squared 0.206 0.402 0.135 0.225 0.086 0.293 0.154 0.278


31

Figure 11 Likelihood of graduates entering selected high status professions 6 months after graduation by socio-economic background characteristics (FEMALES)

Life sciences

controlling for

demographics

Legal

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Management

and business

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Media and

creative

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Public

services

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Scientists

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Education

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Built

environment

controlling for

demographics

and prior

attainment

Higher managerial,

administrative and

professional

0.039 (.014)*** 0.003 (.003) 0.004 (.007) -0.001 (.005) 0.005 (.006) -0.003 (.001)** -0.018 (.014) 0.003 (.005)

Lower managerial,

administrative and

professional

0.025 (.012)** 0.002 (.003) -0.005 (.006) -0.003 (.005) 0.003 (.006) -0.001 (.001) 0.001 (.015) -0.000 (.004)

Intermediate 0.013 (.012) 0.003 (.004) -0.001 (.006) 0.003 (.006) -0.000 (.006) -0.001 (.001) -0.001 (.015) 0.000 (.005)


0.014 (.014) 0.004 (.005) -0.000 (.007) 0.002 (.007) -0.002 (.006) -0.002 (.001) -0.011 (.016) 0.003 (.006)

Lower supervisory

and technical

0.000 (.012) 0.003 (.005) 0.005 (.010) -0.007 (.005) -0.004 (.006) -0.002 (.001) 0.013 (.020) 0.008 (.008)

Semi-routine 0.001 (.011) -0.002 (.002) 0.002 (.008) -0.011 (.003)** 0.005 (.007) -0.001 (.001) 0.002 (.016) -0.001 (.005)

Routine Base Base Base Base Base Base Base Base

Never worked and

long-term

unemployed

0.046 (.075) Dropped Dropped -0.000 (.025) Dropped Dropped 0.096 (.118) Dropped

Low HE participation

area

-0.006 (.004) -0.000 (.001) -0.001 (.004) -0.006 (.003)* 0.000 (.003) 0.001 (.001) -0.006 (.009) -0.005 (.002)*

Attended state

school

-0.019 (.005)*** -0.005 (.002)*** -0.013 (.004)*** 0.005 (.003)* 0.007 (.003)* 0.001 (.001) 0.027 (.009)*** -0.001 (.002)

32

N 14,299 11,775 14,041 14,032 14,027 9,970 14,299 14,302

Adjusted R-squared 0.136 0.381 0.156 0.193 0.096 0.284 0.185 0.258


33

References

Bratti, M., & Manchini, L. (2003). Differences in early occupational earnings of UK male graduates by degree subject: Evidence from the 1980–1993 USR. IZA, DP 890. Bratti, M., Naylor, R., & Smith, J. (2005). Variations in the wage returns to a first degree: Evidence from the British cohort study 1970. IZA, DP 1631. Chevalier, A. (2010). Does higher education quality matter in the UK. Mimeo: Royal Holloway. Chevalier, A 2011, 'Subject Choice and Earnings of UK Graduates' Economics of Education

Review, pp. 1187-1201.

Cabinet Office (2011) Opening Doors, Breaking Barriers: A Strategy for Social Mobility. London:

Cabinet Office.

Macmillan, L. (2009). Social Mobility and the Professions. Centre for Market and Public

Organisation.

Milburn, A. (2009) Panel on Fair Access to the Professions, Unleashing Aspiration: The Final Report of the Panel on Fair Access to the Professions. London: Cabinet Office. Walker, I., & Zhu, Y. (2005). The college wage premium over education, and the expansion of higher education in the UK. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 110, 695–709. Walker, I. & Zhu, Y. (2011). Differences by degree: Evidence of the net financial rates of return to undergraduate studies for England and Wales. Economics of Education Review, 30, 1177–1186.

http://pure.rhul.ac.uk/portal/en/persons/arnaud-chevalier%28ee9040ef-8395-436b-82bf-5f90721ce376%29.html

http://pure.rhul.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/subject-choice-and-earnings-of-uk-graduates%28042d358f-ac2c-4dfc-8505-4e76c0658714%29.html

34

Appendix A

Figure 12 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 6 months after

graduation, by parental occupation


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Higher managerial,


0.003 (.012) 0.001 (.011) 0.009 (.010)

Lower managerial,


0.018 (.012) 0.016 (.012) 0.018 (.010)

Intermediate 0.014 (.013) 0.013 (.013) 0.013 (.011)


0.025 (.015)* 0.025 (.015)* 0.021 (.013)*


technical

0.000 (.015) 0.001 (.015) 0.005 (.013)

Semi-routine 0.006 (.013) 0.004 (.013) 0.006 (.011)

Routine Baseline Baseline Baseline


unemployed

-0.014 (.067) -0.027 (.056) -0.028 (.040)

N 21,026 21,026 21,026

Pseudo - R-squared 0.001 0.010 0.049

Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (2011) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (2006/07). Demographics: Gender, age, ethnicity, region of work at 6 months. Prior attainment: Institution type, Oxbridge, UCAS tariff, subject, attainment.


graduation, by HE participation


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Low HE participation area -0.009 (.007) -0.010 (.007) -0.010 (.006)*

N 21,026 21,026 21,026

Adjusted R-squared 0.000 0.008 0.048


35


graduation, by type of school attended


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

State school -0.011 (.006)* -0.007 (.006) -0.011 (.006)**

N 21,026 21,026 21,026




graduation, all variables together (SCOTLAND only)


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Professional -0.031 (.023) -0.026 (.024) -0.017 (.016)

Lower manager -0.043 (.023)* -0.039 (.022) -0.027 (.014)

Intermediate -0.029 (.022) -0.028 (.022) -0.022 (.013)*

Small employer -0.030 (.024) -0.035 (.021) -0.028 (.011)

Supervisor -0.023 (.026) -0.018 (.028) -0.016 (.016)

Semi-routine -0.059 (.019)** -0.059 (.019)** -0.037 (.008)**


Unemployed Dropped Dropped Dropped

Low participation -0.027 (.031) -0.023 (.034) -0.018 (.019)

State school 0.012 (.018) 0.029 (.016) 0.013 (.012)

N 1,796 1,715 1,681



36

Figure 16 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 6 months after graduation, all variables together


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

MALES only

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

FEMALES only

Higher managerial,


0.000 (.012) -0.001 (.011) 0.007 (.010) 0.015 (.018) 0.001 (.011)

Lower managerial,


0.016 (.012) 0.015 (.012) 0.017 (.010) 0.027 (.018) 0.013 (.012)

Intermediate 0.013 (.013) 0.012 (.013) 0.012 (.011) 0.007 (.018) 0.014 (.013)


0.023 (.015) 0.024 (.015)* 0.019 (.013)* 0.017 (.021) 0.019 (.015)


technical

0.000 (.015) 0.001 (.015) 0.005 (.012) 0.009 (.022) 0.005 (.015)

Semi-routine 0.005 (.013) 0.003 (.013) 0.005 (.011) 0.003 (.019) 0.008 (.013)



unemployed

-0.015 (.066) -0.027 (.056) -0.028 (.039) -0.012 (.071) dropped

Low HE participation area -0.008 (.007) -0.009 (.007) -0.009 (.006) -0.007 (.010) -0.010 (.006)

Attended state school -0.010 (.007) -0.006 (.006) -0.010 (.006)* -0.022 (.009)** 0.000 (.007)

N 21,026 21,026 21,026 8,944 12,077



.

37

Figure 17 Likelihood of graduates entering high status occupations (SOC Group 2) 6 months after graduation,

by parental occupation


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Higher managerial,


0.061 (.020)*** 0.080 (.020)*** 0.016 (.021)

Lower managerial,


0.031 (.019) 0.055 (.020)*** 0.015 (.021)

Intermediate 0.011 (.021) 0.028 (.021) 0.000 (.022)


0.049 (.023)** 0.061 (.024)*** 0.023 (.025)


technical

0.045 (.025)* 0.061 (.026)** 0.026 (.027)

Semi-routine 0.003 (.022) 0.019 (.022) -0.002 (.023)



unemployed

-0.172 (.107) -0.208 (.094)* -0.140 (.120)

N 21,026 21,026 21,026




by HE participation


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Low HE participation area -0.057 (.013)*** -0.048 (.013)*** -0.030 (.014)**

N 21,026 21,026 21,026



38


by type of school attended


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Attended state school -0.050 (.011)*** -0.040 (.011)*** 0.026 (.012)**

N 21,026 21,026 21,026




all variables together (SCOTLAND only)


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Higher managerial,


0.063 (.065) 0.082 (.066) 0.111 (.073)

Lower managerial,


0.053 (.064) 0.085 (.065) 0.072 (.074)

Intermediate -0.042 (.069) -0.029 (.071) -0.085 (.082)


0.076 (.076) 0.096 (.077) 0.117 (.083)


technical

0.069 (.079) 0.089 (.080) 0.064 (.090)

Semi-routine -0.040 (.077) -0.031 (.079) -0.131 (.091)



unemployed

Dropped Dropped Dropped

Low HE participation area -0.125 (.076) -0.125 (.078) -0.143 (.096)

Attended state school -0.085 (.038)** -0.043 (.040) -0.002 (.045)

N 1,796 1,796 1,795



39

Figure 21 Likelihood of graduates entering high status occupations (SOC Group 2) 6 months after graduation, all variables together


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

MALES only

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

FEMALES only

Higher managerial,


0.047 (.020)** 0.069 (.020)*** 0.014 (.021) 0.062 (.025)* -0.019 (.027)

Lower managerial,


0.020 (.019) 0.047 (.020)** 0.012 (.021) 0.041 (.024) -0.005 (.027)

Intermediate 0.002 (.021) 0.020 (.021) -0.003 (.022) 0.027 (.026) -0.022 (.028)


0.040 (.023)* 0.054 (.024)** 0.022 (.025) 0.072 (.029)* -0.013 (.031)


technical

0.042 (.025)* 0.059 (.026)** 0.023 (.027) 0.040 (.032) 0.017 (.035)

Semi-routine -0.002 (.022) 0.017 (.022) -0.004 (.023) 0.032 (.027) -0.025 (.029)



unemployed

-0.177 (.105) -0.211 (.093)* -0.142 (.120) -0.146 (.165) -0.076 (.234)

Low HE participation area -0.051 (.013)*** -0.040 (.013)*** -0.030 (.014)** -0.055 (.022)** -0.013 (.019)

Attended state school -0.041 (.011)*** -0.030 (.011)*** 0.028 (.017)** 0.022 (.019) 0.032 (.017)*

N 21,026 21,026 21,026 8,944 12,082



40

Figure 22 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 3 years after

graduation, by parental occupation


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Higher managerial,


0.031 (.014)** 0.020 (.014) 0.025 (.014)*

Lower managerial,


0.050 (.014)*** 0.041 (.014)*** 0.043 (.014)***

Intermediate 0.037 (.016)** 0.028 (.015)* 0.028 (.015)**


0.037 (.017)** 0.035 (.017)** 0.032 (.017)**


technical

0.019 (.018) 0.016 (.018) 0.017 (.017)

Semi-routine 0.027 (.016)* 0.023 (.016) 0.021 (.015)



unemployed

0.005 (.071) -0.004 (.068) -0.030 (.056)**

N 24,981 24,981 24,981




graduation, by HE participation


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Low HE participation area -0.022 (.008)*** -0.019 (.008)** -0.021 (.008)**

N 24,981 24,981 24,981



41


graduation, by type of school attended


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Attended state school -0.039 (.007)*** -0.027 (.007)*** -0.030 (.007)***

N 24,981 24,981 24,981




graduation, all variables together (SCOTLAND only)


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Higher managerial,


0.043 (.043) 0.027 (.040) 0.029 (.034)

Lower managerial,


0.029 (.041) 0.021 (.039) 0.022 (.032)

Intermediate 0.003 (.042) -0.002 (.040) 0.007 (.033)


-0.046 (.033) -0.056 (.028) -0.038 (.020)


technical

0.006 (.048) 0.001 (.045) 0.004 (.036)

Semi-routine 0.020 (.050) 0.005 (.046) 0.021 (.041)



unemployed

0.102 (.212) 0.097 (.209) -0.007 (.094)


Attended state school -0.008 (.021) 0.013 (.019) 0.009 (.015)

N 2,072 2,066 2,033



42

Figure 26 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 3 years after graduation, all variables together


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

MALES only

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

FEMALES only

Higher managerial,


0.023 (.014)* 0.014 (.014) 0.020 (.014) 0.034 (.023) 0.012 (.016)

Lower managerial,


0.044 (.014)*** 0.037 (.014)*** 0.039 (.014)*** 0.062 (.023)*** 0.023 (.017)

Intermediate 0.032 (.015)** 0.025 (.015)* 0.025 (.015)* 0.061 (.026)** -0.001 (.016)


0.033 (.017)** 0.032 (.017)** 0.029 (.016)* 0.053 (.029)** 0.012 (.019)


technical

0.018 (.018) 0.016 (.018) 0.017 (.017) 0.025 (.029) 0.016 (.021)

Semi-routine 0.025 (.016) 0.021 (.016) 0.019 (.015) 0.018 (.025) 0.018 (.019)



unemployed

0.003 (.071) -0.004 (.067) -0.031 (.056) -0.064 (.080) 0.003 (.083)

Low HE participation area -0.018 (.008)** -0.016 (.008)* -0.018 (.008)** -0.016 (.013) -0.018 (.010)*

Attended state school -0.037 (.007)*** -0.026 (.007)*** -0.029 (.007)*** -0.039 (.012)** -0.019 (.009)**

N 24,981 24,981 24,981 10,664 14,317



43

Figure 27 Likelihood of graduates entering high status occupations (SOC Group 2) 3 years after graduation,

by parental occupation


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Higher managerial,


0.050 (.018)*** 0.054 (.018)*** 0.007 (.019)

Lower managerial,


0.049 (.018)*** 0.053 (.018)*** 0.024 (.019)

Intermediate 0.017 (.019) 0.021 (.019) -0.001 (.020)


0.014 (.021) 0.019 (.021) -0.002 (.022)


technical

0.041 (.023)* 0.042 (.023)* 0.016 (.024)

Semi-routine 0.013 (.020) 0.019 (.020) 0.004 (.021)



unemployed

-0.229 (.087)** -0.230 (.087)** -0.139 (.102)

N 24,981 24,981 24,981




by HE participation


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Low HE participation area -0.042 (.012)*** -0.046 (.012)*** -0.030 (.012)**

N 24,981 24,981 24,981



44


by type of school attended


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Attended state school -0.045 (.010)*** -0.047 (.010)*** -0.001 (.011)

N 24,981 24,981 24,981




all variables together (Scotland only)


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Higher managerial,


0.063 (.065) 0.082 (.066) 0.111 (.073)

Lower managerial,


0.053 (.064) 0.085 (.065) 0.072 (.074)

Intermediate -0.042 (.069) -0.029 (.071) -0.085 (.082)


0.076 (.076) 0.096 (.077) 0.117 (.083)


technical

0.069 (.079) 0.089 (.080) 0.064 (.090)

Semi-routine -0.040 (.077) -0.031 (.079) -0.131 (.091)



unemployed

Dropped Dropped Dropped


Attended state school -0.085 (.038)** -0.043 (.040) -0.002 (.045)

N 2,072 2,070 2,069



45

Figure 31 Likelihood of graduates entering high status occupations (SOC Group 2) 3 years after graduation, all variables together


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

MALES only

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

FEMALES only

Higher managerial,


0.040 (.018)** 0.044 (.018)** 0.003 (.019) 0.006 (.029) 0.001 (.025)

Lower managerial,


0.042 (.018)** 0.046 (.018)** 0.020 (.019) 0.024 (.028) 0.016 (.025)

Intermediate 0.011 (.019) 0.015 (.019) -0.004 (.020) 0.001 (.030) -0.010 (.026)


0.007 (.021) 0.013 (.021) -0.005 (.022) -0.000 (.033) -0.009 (.019)


technical

0.040 (.023)* 0.040 (.023)* 0.015 (.024) -0.005 (.037) 0.029 (.032)

Semi-routine 0.009 (.020) 0.016 (.020) 0.001 (.021) -0.008 (.032) 0.006 (.028)



unemployed

-0.231 (.087)** -0.230 (.087)** -0.142 (.102) -0.418 (.117)** 0.062 (.137)

Low HE participation area -0.035 (.012)*** -0.039 (.012)*** -0.029 (.012)** -0.032 (.020)* -0.027 (.017)

Attended state school -0.038 (.010)*** -0.040 (.010)*** -0.000 (.011) -0.000 (.016) -0.004 (.015)

N 24,981 24,981 24,981 10,664 14,317


Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (2011) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (2006/07). Demographics: Age, ethnicity, region of work at 6 months. Prior attainment: Institution type, Oxbridge, UCAS tariff, subject, attainment. Missing dummies included for parental SEC, low participation and state school indicators

46

Figure 32 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post-graduate study at 6 months, by parental occupation


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Higher managerial,


0.076 (.015)*** 0.059 (.014)*** 0.026 (.013)**

Lower managerial,


0.057 (.014)*** 0.045 (.014)*** 0.023 (.013)*

Intermediate 0.059 (.016)*** 0.053 (.015)*** 0.036 (.014)***


0.023 (.016) 0.012 (.015) 0.006 (.014)


technical

0.039 (.018)** 0.029 (.018)* 0.045 (.017)

Semi-routine 0.024 (.016) 0.019 (.015) 0.012 (.017)



unemployed

0.062 (.078) 0.080 (.081) 0.207 (.100)***

N 30,044 30,044 30,044



Figure 33 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post-graduate study at 6 months, by HE participation


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Low HE participation area -0.014 (.008)* -0.010 (.008) 0.003 (.008)

N 30,044 30,044 30,044



47

Figure 34 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post-graduate study at 6 months, by type of school

attended


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Attended state school -0.040 (.007)*** -0.035 (.007)*** -0.003 (.006)

N 30,044 30,044 30,044



Figure 35 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post-graduate study at 6 months, all variables together

(SCOTLAND only)


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Higher managerial,


0.102 (.058)* 0.071 (.055) 0.010 (.041)

Lower managerial,


0.087 (.056)* 0.068 (.054) 0.014 (.042)

Intermediate 0.091 (.065) 0.068 (.062) 0.014 (.046)


0.065 (.067) 0.022 (.059) -0.027 (.037)


technical

0.082 (.072) 0.061 (.068) 0.027 (.054)

Semi-routine 0.212 (.082)*** 0.170 (.079)** 0.117 (.072)**



unemployed

0.506 (.241)** 0.508 (.245)** 0.658 (.210)***

Low HE participation area 0.063 (.060) 0.088 (.063) 0.085 (.060)*

Attended state school -0.026 (.022) -0.028 (.023) 0.003 (.019)

N 2,470 2,461 2,316



48

Figure 36 Likelihood of graduates entering full time post-graduate study at 6 months, all variables together


demographics

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

MALES only

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment -

FEMALES only

Higher managerial,


0.065 (.015)*** 0.054 (.014)*** 0.026 (.013)** -0.008 (.017) 0.051 (.019)***

Lower managerial,


0.050 (.014)*** 0.042 (.014)*** 0.023 (.013)* -0.001 (.017) 0.041 (.018)**

Intermediate 0.052 (.016)*** 0.051 (.015)*** 0.036 (.014)*** 0.021 (.020) 0.045 (.020)**


0.017 (.016) 0.009 (.015) 0.006 (.014) -0.014 (.018) 0.020 (.020)


technical

0.037 (.018)** 0.029 (.018)* 0.025 (.017) -0.014 (.020) 0.055 (.025)**

Semi-routine 0.023 (.015) 0.018 (.015) 0.012 (.014) 0.001 (.020) 0.016 (.019)



unemployed

0.058 (.077) 0.079 (.081) 0.206 (.100)*** dropped 0.420 (.132)***

Low participation -0.006 (.008) -0.003 (.008) 0.004 (.008) 0.013 (.012) -0.003 (.010)

State school -0.030 (.007)*** -0.031 (.007)*** -0.003 (.006) 0.017 (.008)** -0.020 (.009)**

N 30,044 30,044 30,044 12,867 17,162



49

Figure 37 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) with and without post-

graduate dummy, by socio-economic background characteristics

Controlling for

demographics and prior

attainment

Controlling for


attainment

Post-graduate study at 6 months -0.058 (.005)***


and professional

0.020 (.014) 0.022 (.014)


and professional

0.039 (.014)*** 0.040 (.014)***

Intermediate 0.025 (.015)* 0.027 (.015)*


0.029 (.016)* 0.030 (.016)*

Lower supervisory and technical 0.017 (.017) 0.018 (.018)

Semi-routine 0.019 (.015) 0.019 (.015)



unemployed

-0.031 (.056) -0.022 (.059)



N 24,981 24,981



50

Figure 38 Likelihood of graduates entering high status occupations (SOC Group 2) with and without post-

graduate dummy, by socio-economic background characteristics

Controlling for


attainment

Controlling for


attainment

Post-graduate study at 6 months 0.161 (.010)***


and professional

0.003 (.019) 0.001 (.019)


and professional

0.020 (.019) 0.018 (.019)

Intermediate -0.004 (.020) -0.010 (.020)


-0.005 (.022) -0.006 (.022)


Semi-routine 0.001 (.021) 0.001 (.021)



unemployed

-0.142 (.102) -0.172 (.101)


Attended state school -0.000 (.011) 0.002 (.011)

N 24,981 24,981



51

Figure 39 Likelihood of graduates entering highest status occupations (SOC Group 1) 3 years after graduation

(including marginal effects for control variables)

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Controlling for

demographics and

prior attainment

Post-graduate study at 6 months -0.058 (.005)***

Higher managerial, administrative and professional 0.020 (.014) 0.022 (.014)

Lower managerial, administrative and professional 0.039 (.014)*** 0.040 (.014)***

Intermediate 0.025 (.015)* 0.027 (.015)*

Small employers and own account workers 0.029 (.016)* 0.030 (.016)*


Semi-routine 0.019 (.015) 0.019 (.015)


Never worked and long-term unemployed -0.031 (.056) -0.022 (.059)



Controls

Demographic characteristics

Male 0.024 (.004)*** 0.023 (.004)***

Age 0.005 (.002)** 0.004 (.002)*

Ethnicity

Black -0.029 (.011)** -0.027 (.011)**

Asian -0.026 (.008)*** -0.024 (.008)***

Other -0.006 (.009) -0.004 (.009)

White Baseline Baseline

Non UK Ethnicity 0.040 (.036) 0.055 (.036)*

Region of work at 6 months

South West -0.031 (.008)*** -0.030 (.008)***

South East 0.002 (.007) 0.003 (.007)

East -0.020 (.009)** -0.018 (.009)*

West Midlands -0.017 (.009)* -0.015 (.009)

52

East Midlands -0.008 (.010) -0.007 (.010)

York -0.015 (.009) -0.013 (.009)

North West -0.026 (.008)*** -0.026 (.008)***

North East -0.034 (.012)** -0.033 (.012)**

Northern Ireland -0.043 (.008)*** -0.039 (.008)***

Scotland -0.043 (.008)*** -0.040 (.008)***

Wales -0.035 (.009)*** -0.034 (.009)***

London Baseline Baseline

UK other -0.023 (.012)* -0.022 (.012)*

Non UK 0.004 (.010) 0.009 (.010)

Prior attainment characteristics

Oxbridge -0.029 (.012)** -0.028 (.012)**

1994 0.001 (.007) 0.003 (.007)

Guild HE -0.021 (.011)* -0.022 (.011)*

University Alliance -0.005 (.007) -0.007 (.007)

Million + -0.008 (.008) -0.010 (.008)

Russell Group Baseline Baseline

Other -0.020 (.007)** -0.021 (.007)***

UCAS Tariff -0.001 (.009)** -0.001 (.009)**

Initial degree subject

Medicine and dentistry Baseline Baseline

Subjects allied to medicine 0.180 (.052)*** 0.184 (.052)***

Biological sciences 0.212 (.052)*** 0.246 (.052)***

Veterinary science, agriculture and related subjects 0.309 (.067)*** 0.316 (.067)***

Physical Sciences 0.206 (.053)*** 0.222 (.053)***

Maths and computer sciences 0.243 (.053)*** 0.251 (.053)***

Engineering 0.226 (.054)*** 0.231 (.054)***

Technologies 0.305 (.071)*** 0.311 (.071)***

53

Architecture, building and planning 0.304 (.063)*** 0.314 (.063)***

Social studies 0.289 (.054)*** 0.302 (.054)***

Law 0.229 (.056)*** 0.248 (.056)***

Business and administrative studies 0.420 (.054)*** 0.425 (.054)***

Communications 0.383 (.061)*** 0.388 (.061)***

Linguistics and classics 0.237 (.055)*** 0.254 (.055)***

European languages 0.299 (.059)*** 0.315 (.059)***

Other languages 0.238 (.072)*** 0.253 (.072)***

Historical and philosophical studies 0.266 (.056)*** 0.284 (.056)***

Creative arts and design 0.254 (.054)*** 0.260 (.054)***

Education 0.052 (.043) 0.058 (.043)

Combined 0.306 (.081)*** 0.316 (.081)***

Degree class

First Baseline Baseline

2:1 0.019 (.006)*** 0.017 (.006)***

2:2 0.021 (.008)*** 0.018 (.008)**

Third 0.018 (.014) 0.013 (.014)

Unclassified 0.005 (.015) 0.002 (.015)

N 24,981 24,981



54

© Crown copyright [October 2013]

ISBN: 978-1-78105-276-1

Any enquiries regarding this publication should be sent to us at Social Mobility and Child Poverty

Commission, Sanctuary Buildings, 20 Great Smith Street, London, SW1P 3BT. Email:

[email protected]

This document is also available from our website at: www.gov.uk/smcpc

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