MARCH 11-14, 2011EXAMPLES OF NO PLACE TO GO AND NO ONE TO

RESCUE

JAPAN

AFTER 2:46 PM, MARCH 11

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

THE EARTHQUAKE IS NOW A M9.0 EVENT

The MEGA-earthquake, which struck at 2:46 pm on Friday, March 11th, would have caused a disaster….

THE EARTHQUAKE IS NOW A M9.0 EVENT

…BUT JAPAN was well prepared to cope with it.

A 7-10 M TSUNAM FOLLOWED IN ABOUT 10 MINUTES

Japan was well prepared to cope with a tsunami, but ….

A 7-10 M TSUNAM FOLLOWED IN ABOUT 10 MINUTES

This tsunami was devastating, inun-dating towns, im-mobilizing airports and roads, destroy-ing buildings, and treating everything (e.g., people, cars) in its path as debris.

VERTICAL EVACUATION: ROOF OF SCHOOL BUILDING

BACKGROUND

TSUNAMI HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD WATER WAVES

• WAVE RUNUP • FLOODING• WAVE RETREAT• SHORELINE EROSION

ADVANCE WARNING AND VERTICAL EVACUATION

ARE THE KEYS TO SURVIVING A TSUNAMI

ON MARCH 11TH, MANY PEOPLE HAD TOO LITTLE WARNING AND

NO PLACE TO GO

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICALEVACUATION IS TYPICAL

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICALEVACUATION IS TYPICAL

FLOODS

HURRICANES

TYPHOONS

TSUNAMIS

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

WILDFIRES

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BENEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BENEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY

GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAYOF HARM’S WAY

GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAYOF HARM’S WAY

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES

TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS

FLOODING

INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE A VITAL PART OF THE STORY.

KNOWING WHERE, WHEN, AND WHY A TSUNAMI OCCURS IS A VITAL PART OF THE ART

AND SCIENCE OF INTELLIGENT EVACUATION.

INTELLIGENT EVACUATION:LEAVE THE AREA OR EVACUATE VERTICALLY

INTELLIGENT EVACUATION:LEAVE THE AREA OR EVACUATE VERTICALLY

• LEAVE, IF ENOUGH ADVANCE WARNING

• EVACUATE TO A TALL BUILDING OR A HIGHER ELEVATION TO GET BEYOND REACH OF THE TSUNAMI’S WAVE RUNUP.

• LEAVE, IF ENOUGH ADVANCE WARNING

• EVACUATE TO A TALL BUILDING OR A HIGHER ELEVATION TO GET BEYOND REACH OF THE TSUNAMI’S WAVE RUNUP.

THE ART AND SCIENCE OF KNOWING WHEN TO EVACUATE

BEFORE A TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVES AND WHERE TO GO

CAN BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH.

EVACUATION FOR A TSUNAMI IS COMPLICATED BY:

1) THE SHORT TIME BETWEEN THE EARTHQUAKE AND THE TSUNAMI

WAVE ARRIVAL, AND

2) DAMAGE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION TO BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE CAUSED BY THE EARTHQUAKE AND

ITS AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCE.

WHEN YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, OR YOU ARE

UNABLE TO EVACUATE, THE ODDS FOR SURVIVAL ARE

LOWER, BECAUSE ---

YOU CAN’T OUTRUN OR DIVERT10-M-HIGH, DEBRIS-LADEN,

OCEAN WAVE THAT ARRIVES WITH A HIGH VELOCITY (E.G.,

30+ KM/HR) AND MOVES RAPIDLY INLAND

FOR 2-3 KM, OR MORE

DETAILS OF THE STORY IN JAPAN

TSUNAMI WAVES DEVASTATE SENDAI

INUNDATION

TSUNAMI DAMAGE

TSUNAMI DAMAGE

TSUNAMI DAMAGE

SEARCH AND RESCUE IS OFTEN THE LAST BEST CHANCE FOR SURVIVAL,

BUT IT HAS LIMITS

ON MARCH 14TH, SOME SEARCH AND RESCUE TEAMS FOUND NO ONE TO RESCUE

NATORI: NO ONE TO RESCUE; MARCH 14

NATORI: NO ONE TO RESCUE EXCEPT A DOG; MARCH 14

NO ONE TO RESCUE