march 12, 2015 4/7/2015 - denton · pdf filebefore the next object is drawn (the total is ......

• S-Sit and organize materials for the lesson… Get your journal and a

sharpened pencil.

• E-Examine and follow teacher’s directions… On your next blank page,

write today’s date at the top. Title this page ~ Probability

• T-Take the challenge! Write the CQ in journal below the title:

Challenge Question: What operation do you use to solve compound

probability if you see the word “and” in the word problem? What

about if you see the word “or”?

Warm-Up:

1. What do you remember about probability from 5th and 6th grade?

Make a list of everything you remember in your journal now!

MARCH 12, 2015 SET-UP (Activate Prior Knowledge & Connect to Challenge Question)

Noise level 0

4/7/2015

REVIEW OF

PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY Probability is a measure of how likely an

event is to occur.

For example –

Today there is a 60% chance of rain.

The odds of winning the lottery are a million to one.

What are some examples you can think of?

PRESENTATION Noise level 0

PROBABILITY Probabilities are written as:

Fractions from 0 to 1

Decimals from 0 to 1

Percents from 0% to 100%


PROBABILITY If an event is certain to happen, then the

probability of the event is 1 or 100%.

If an event will NEVER happen, then the probability of the event is 0 or 0%.

If an event is just as likely to happen as to not happen, then the probability of the event is ½, 0.5 or 50%.


PROBABILITY

Impossible Unlikely Equal Chances Likely Certain

0 0.5 1

0% 50% 100%

½


When a meteorologist states that the chance of

rain is 50%, the meteorologist is saying that it is

equally likely to rain or not to rain.

If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more likely

to rain.

If the chance drops to 20%, then it may rain, but

it probably will not rain (unlikely to rain).

PROBABILITY


PROBABILITY What are some events that will never

happen and have a probability of 0%?

What are some events that are certain to happen and have a probability of 100%?

What are some events that have equal chances of happening and have a probability of 50%?


PROBABILITY The probability of an event is written:

P(event) = number of ways event can occur

total number of outcomes


PROBABILITY P(event) = number of ways event can occur


An outcome is a possible result of a probability experiment

When rolling a number cube, the possible

outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6




An event is a specific result of a probability experiment

When rolling a number cube, the event of

rolling an even number is 3 (you could roll a 2, 4 or 6).




What is the probability of getting heads when flipping a coin?

P(heads) = number of ways = 1 head on a coin = 1

total outcomes = 2 sides to a coin = 2

P(heads)= ½ = 0.5 = 50%


1. What is the probability that the spinner

will stop on part A?

2. What is the probability that the

spinner will stop on

(a) An even number?

(b) An odd number?

3. What is the probability that the

spinner will stop in the area

marked A?

A B C D

3 1 2

A

C B

TRY THESE:

LEARNING TOGETHER Noise level 2

PROBABILITY WORD PROBLEM: Lawrence is the captain of his track team. The

team is deciding on a color and all eight members

wrote their choice down on equal size cards. If

Lawrence picks one card at random, what is the

probability that he will pick blue?

Number of blues = 3

Total cards = 8

yellow

red

blue blue

blue

green black

black

3/8 or 0.375 or 37.5%


Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1 to 6.

What is the probability of the following?

a.) an odd number

odd numbers – 1, 3, 5

total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

b.) a number greater than 5

numbers greater – 6

total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

LET’S WORK THESE TOGETHER

3/6 = ½ = 0.5 = 50%

1/6 = 0.166 = 16.6%


1. What is the probability of spinning a

number greater than 1?

2. What is the probability that a spinner

with five congruent sections numbered

1-5 will stop on an even number?

3. What is the probability of rolling a

multiple of 2 with one toss of a number

cube?

TRY THESE: 2 1

3 4


REVIEW OF TOTAL

POSSIBLE

OUTCOMES

TREE DIAGRAM – TOTAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

Make a tree diagram to represent the following situation:

I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket (red, yellow,

and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I draw out one marble

from the bucket and roll the dice once, what are all the

possible outcomes?

Red

Yellow

Blue

1

2

3

4

5

6

1

2

3

4

5

6

1

2

3

4

5

6

How many

total possible

outcomes?


Make an area model to represent the following

situation:

I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket (red,

yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I

draw out one marble from the bucket and roll the

dice once, what are all the possible outcomes?

AREA MODEL – TOTAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

1 2 3 4 5 6

Red R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6

Yellow Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6

Blue B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6


REVIEW OF HOW TO

CALCULATE

PROBABILITY OF

COMPOUND EVENTS

“AND” VS. “OR” I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket

(red, yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice).

If I draw out one marble from the bucket and roll

the dice once:

1. What is the probability of drawing a yellow and

rolling an even?

2. What is the probability of drawing a yellow or

rolling an even?


With replacement ~ the object is replaced before

the next object is drawn (the total stays the same

for both probabilities)

Ex. You have a bucket with 10 marbles (5 blue, 3 red

and 2 green). What is the probability of drawing and

blue, replacing it, and then drawing a green?

Without replacement ~ the object is not replaced

before the next object is drawn (the total is

different for both probabilities)

Ex. You have a bucket with 10 marbles (5 blue, 3 red

and 2 green). What is the probability of drawing and

blue, setting it aside, and then drawing a green?

“WITH REPLACEMENT” VS. “WITHOUT

REPLACEMENT”


Adam has a bag containing four yellow gumdrops and one

red gumdrop. he will eat one of the gumdrops, and a few

minutes later, he will eat a second gumdrop.

a) Draw the tree diagram for the experiment.

b) What is the probability that Adam will eat a yellow

gumdrop first and a green gumdrop second?

c) What is the probability that Adam will eat two yellow

gumdrops?

d) What is the probability that Adam will eat two gumdrops

with the same color?

e) What is the probability that Adam will eat two gumdrops

of different colors?

“WITH REPLACEMENT” VS.

“WITHOUT REPLACEMENT”


How long do I have? 45 mins

What do I do? By yourself, complete the Unit 5

Common Assessment

ASSESSMENT Noise level 0

WRAP-UP

W- Write homework assignment in planner (Unit 5

Common Assessment due on Wednesday,

April 8th)

R- Return materials and organize supplies

A-Assess how well you worked in a group or

individually

Did I/we maintain operating standards?

Did I/we work toward learning goals?

Did I/we complete tasks?

P- Praise one another for high quality work:

Tickets for a “P” performance overall

Noise level 0

march 12, 2015 4/7/2015 - denton · pdf filebefore the next object is drawn (the total is ......

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