march, 2004 vol. 13 no. 3march, 2004 vol. 13 no. 3 bank of slovenia 2 monthly bulletin, march 2004...

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March, 2004Vol. 13 No. 3

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BANK OF SLOVENIA

2 Monthly Bulletin, March 2004

Published by: BANK OF SLOVENIA Slovenska 35, 1000 Ljubljana Slovenia

tel.: +386 (1) 4719000fax.: +386 (1) 2515516Telex: 31214 BS LJB SIE-mail: [email protected]://www.bsi.si/SWIFT: BSLJ SI 2X

Publication and other public use of data from this publication ispermitted subject to statement of the source.Publication is available on the Web.For PGP key see last page.

ISSN 1318-0770 (print)ISSN 1518-209X (online)

Printed by: Geodetski inštitut Slovenije, Ljubljana

Ta publikacija je na voljo tudi v slovenščini.

Mr. Janez KOŠAK, Vice GovernorMr. Janez FABIJAN, Financial StatisticsMr. Uroš ČUFER, Analaysis & Research DepartmentMrs. Danica PRELOVŠEK, Central Banking OperationsMr. Janko TRATNIK, Banking Department

Editorial Board:

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BANK OF SLOVENIA

3Monthly Bulletin, March 2004

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REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA: 4 General Information

I. MONETARY REVIEWS 1-22 External environment Output and labour market Public sector Inflation developments Balance of Payments Money and credit Banking system Exchange rate developments Interest rates

II. STATISTICAL TABLES 1 Money and Banks 3

Financial Markets 20 Balance of Payments and External Position 43

Real Sector 73 Public Finance 78

III. BANKING INSTITUTIONS IN SLOVENIA 1

VI. NOTES ON METHODOLOGY 1 Advance release calendar 17

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BANK OF SLOVENIA

4 Monthly Bulletin, March 2004

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Measured in:Date or period of

data:

Area 20,273 km2 2004Population 1,997,919 število 09.30.2003Population growth 0.10 % 09.30.2003Population density 99 število / km2 09.30.2003Population of Ljubljana 268,084 število 06.30.2003

Origin of value added: 2002Agriculture 3.0 % Industry 29.7 %Construction 5.5 %Services 61.8 %Total 100.0 %

GDP real annual change 2.3 % 2003

Industrial production annual change 6.1 % December 2003

Total employment annual change 0.0 % January 2004

Unemployment rate (ILO definition) 6.7 % Okt.-Dec. 2003

Annual inflation rate 3.5 % March 2004

General government:revenue 41.7 % BDP 2003(provisional)surplus/deficit -1.4 % BDP 2003(provisional)

Trade balance 2.4 mio EUR January 2004BOP current account 74.1 mio EUR January 2004

International reserves 6,998.7 mio EUR 02.29.2004Foreign exchange reserves 7,719.0 mio EUR 01.31.2004

Net foreign debt 194.0 mio EUR 01.31.2004 Gross foreign debt 13,079.0 mio EUR 01.31.2004

Currency unit: Slovenian tolar (SIT)Latest BS exchange rates:

for 1 EUR 237.5586 SIT 02.29.2004

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BANK OF SLOVENIA

1 -I.Monthly Bulletin, March 2004

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External environment Output and labour market Public sector Inflation developments Balance of Payments Money and credit Banking system Exchange rate developments Interest rates

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BANK OF SLOVENIA

I.- 2 Monthly Bulletin, March 2004

Economic growth forecasts for the euro area remain unchanged at 1.8% for the current year and 2.1% for 2005. In February a slower growth in prices continued both in the EU(12) and the US, with twelve-month inflation running at 1.6% in the euro area and 1.7% in the US. The value of the euro fell in March and settled at 1.22 dollars per euro. After its strong appreciation in the previous few months, the euro’s fall is aiding competitiveness and improving the prospects of economic growth objectives in the euro area being met. Despite a low inflation, the main interest rates of the ECB and US Fed remained unchanged.

Initial estimates put Slovenia’s GDP growth in 2003 at 2.3%. In the last quarter economic growth picked up to reach 2.5% year-on-year. The fastest year-on-year growth was in household spending and investment, which grew by 3.6% and 7.0% respectively. Trends in external trade last year had a negative impact on GDP growth of –2.0% in the second and third quarters and slightly less, 1.7%, in the fourth quarter as exports began to pick up against rising imports.

The trend in the current account of the balance of payments towards balance observed in the last quarter of 2003 continued in January. A surplus of EUR 74 million was recorded. There was a net financial outflow which fractionally exceeded the surplus in current transactions with the rest of the world. Direct and portfolio investments abroad continue to increase and exceeded investment in Slovenia by EUR 15 million in January. Borrowing from abroad also increased, primarily by banks and to a lesser extent by corporations.

Low growth of M3 was due to banks’ domestic investments, while the contribution of flows with the rest of the world to M3 creation remained negative going into this year. Last year’s policy resulting in lower nominal interest rates is shifting the composition of the monetary aggregates towards increas-ingly liquid forms of money.

A portion of financial savings held in banks is migrating towards higher-yielding forms of investment. The volume of investments in pensions funds is increasing, while investments in mutual funds are growing faster still. The flow of investment into the latter during 2003 amounted to SIT 26 billion, two-thirds of it in the last four months. The flow continues to accelerate this year and had reached SIT 15 billion by the end of the third week of March. Only a small portion of mutual fund assets were invested in banks, around 10% were invested in foreign securities and the remainder was invested in stock market securities, encouraging a faster growth of stock market indices.

We expect to see further falls in inflation at a more gradual pace in the next few months. Risks to lower inflation are increasing: the relatively high growth of producer prices in February, the continued high price of oil on world markets and the growth of domestic lending at the start of the year.

BANKA SLOVENIJEBANK OF SLOVENIA


Inflation continued to slow in February in both the EU

(12) and the United States. Year-on-year inflation in the euro

area was 1.6% (compared to 1.9% in January), the lowest rate

since November 1999. In February the three EU countries with

the lowest twelve-month average inflation, which is used in the

assessment of the inflation criterion, were Germany (1.0%),

Finland (1.1%) and Austria (1.2%). Disinflation also continued in

the United States, where the year-on-year inflation in February

fell to 1.7% (from 1.9% in January).

The euro area budget deficit and public debt worsened

in 2003. The euro area budget deficit reached 2.7% of GDP

and the public debt 70.4%, a significant rise on 2002, when

the figures were 2.3% and 69.2% respectively. The EU member

state with the largest budget deficit in 2003 was France (4.1%),

followed by Germany (3.9%), while the highest debt ratios were

in Italy (106.2%), Greece (102.4%) and Belgium (100.5%). In

the accession countries the largest budget deficit was recorded

in the Czech Republic (12.9%), followed by Malta (9.7%) and

Cyprus (6.3%), while Cyprus had the highest public debt ratio

(72.2%).

The ECB and US Fed main interest rates remained

unchanged. The ECB main interest rate remained at 2%, the

level at which it has been since June last year. At its most recent

meeting there was pressure on the Governing Council of the

ECB, including political pressure, to lower interest rates due to

the slow economic recovery, but this was resisted by the ECB,

which judges the current level of interest rates to be appropriate.

The Fed Funds, the main interest rate of the Federal Reserve

System, also remained unchanged, at 1%. Interest rates in the

euro area are forecast to remain unchanged this year, while in

the United States there is a likelihood of a rise in interest rates

in the second half of the year.

The price of Brent crude oil remained high in February,

although OPEC cut back its forecast for oil demand growth

this year. The price of Brent crude oil averaged 30.8 dollars per

barrel (compared with 31.2 dollars per barrel in January), only

two dollars less than in February last year, when the price was

driven up by expectations of military conflict in Iraq. OPEC slightly

reduced its forecast for oil demand this year to 79.75 million

barrels per day, which nevertheless represents an increase

of 1.45 million barrels per day compared with 2003 (when

demand was 78.30 million barrels per day). Higher demand for

oil is expected mainly because of the global economic recovery

(OPEC’s forecast for world economic growth in 2004 is 4.4%).

On the other hand, the supply of oil by non-OPEC states is

expected to rise in 2004 by 1.35 million barrels per day to

around 50 million barrels per day. In February OPEC announced

a reduction in oil extraction quotas to 23.5 million barrels per

1. THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT

0,80

0,85

0,90

0,95

1,00

1,05

1,10

1,15

1,20

1,25

1,30

2001 2002 2003 2004

EUR/USDEXCHANGE RATE

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2001 2002 2003

USA

EU(12)

REAL GDP(annual growth, %)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001 2002 2003 2004

USD (3 mth) EUR * (1 yr)EUR * (3 mth) USD (1 yr)ECB (repo rate)

INTEREST RATES(Libor, annual growth, %)

1

2

3

4

EU(12)USA

INFLATION (CPI)(annual growth, %)

Annual growth (%) 2001 2002 2003 2004Inflation (CPI)EU (12) 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.6 (2)USA 2.8 1.6 2.3 1.7 (2)Real GDPEU (12) 1.5 0.8 0.4 (1.7)USA 0.3 2.4 3.1 (4.6)Central bank interest ratesEU (12) 4.3 3.2 2.3 2.0 (2)USA 3.9 1.7 1.1 1.0 (2)Dollar commodity prices:Oil (Brent, USD/barrel) 24.5 25.0 28.8 30.8 (2)Sources: Reuters, Eurostat, Consensus, OECD, IFS.Notes: Figures in parentheses indicate the month referred to except foreconomic growth, where they represent the forecast for the year as a whole

2001 2002 2003 2004


5 -I.Month ly Bulletin, March 2004

20032001 2002 2003 dec

2,9 2,4 1,4 6,15,4 -3,0 4,8 4,13,1 4,6 3,2 9,5

2,6 7,1 4,7 1.8 (2)

-2,0 10,7 14,5 23,115,3 2,4 6,8 18,4

-17,3 21,0 22,0 28,1-2,1 -3,4 -1,7 2,8

15,1 4,2 8,7 7,329,8 9,5 4,4 4,115,5 17,5 13,9 11,126,7 22,5 & &11,7 5,5 9,9 7,320,7 9,9 6,8 5,410,1 10,3 10,7 6,0

annual growth (%)Industrial productionInventoriesProductivityElectricity consumption

Construction: - total-buildings-civil engineering-effective hours worked

Trade-retail salesof which: - foods

- non-foods-wholesale tradeHotels and restaurants: total-accommodation-restaurantsTourism (overnights) 5,8 2,3 2,8 0.0 (1)Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia; Slovenian Electricity Authority;Bank of Slovenia calculations. Number in parenthesis refers to the month of lastavailable data.

adjustment of the base year and sample. Figures for value

added in manufacturing during the last quarter (4.8%, compared

with 2.7% for the year as a whole) confirm the rapid growth in

industrial production in the final months of the year. Value added

grew most strongly last year in financial intermediation (5.7%),

public administration (5.2), healthcare (4.4%) and hotels and

restaurants (4.2%), while it fell in agriculture and fishing (-6.3%)

as well as in electricity, gas and water supply (-3.2%).

Figures from the end of the year for activity in other

sectors were fairly favourable. At the very end of the year

there was another rapid jump in the value of work undertaken on

civil engineering, which accompanied strong activity in housing

construction. Figures for the high level of budgetary spending on

investment and investment transfers confirm that this was most

probably due to road building. Growth in retail sales rebounded in

December after slowing in November. This was due to increased

sales mainly of foodstuffs and to a lesser extent of durable goods.

At both the end of last year and the beginning of this year activity

in transport, both of passengers and freight, was high. Tourist

volumes in January were similar to a year ago, with a drop in

the number of domestic tourists being offset by an increase in

foreign tourists.

day as of 1 April, although actual production has exceeded the

announced quotas for some time. In February the quantity of

oil produced by OPEC members was due to have been 28.1

million barrels per day.

2. REAL SECTOR

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

2001

Q1

2001

Q2

2001

Q3

2001

Q4

2002

Q1

2002

Q2

2002

Q3

2002

Q4

2003

Q1

2003

Q2

2003

Q3

2003

Q4

GDP growth (%)

2001 2002 2003Real GDP 2,9 3,2 2,3annual growth (%)Household consumption 2,4 1,1 3,0General goverment consumption 4,0 2,5 2,8Gross fixed capital formation -4,2 4,1 7,0Exports of goods and services 6,4 6,5 3,4Imports of goods and services 3,0 4,9 6,3External trade contribution* 1,8 0,6 -1,8Value added 3,3 3,3 2,3contributions (percentage points)Agriculture -0,1 0,0 -0,2Industry 1,5 1,4 0,6Business services 1,5 1,4 1,2Public services 0,7 0,7 0,7

2003Q42,5

3,61,86,94,57,0-1,72,6

-0,21,00,90,7

* in percentage pointsSources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia; Bank of Slovenia calculations.

95

100

105

110

2000 2001 2002 2003

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(seasonally adjusted), (2000=100)

Initial estimates put GDP growth in 2003 at 2.3%. This

is the lowest rate of annual growth since Slovenia gained

independence in 1991 and is lower than forecast. Economic

activity picked up at the end of the year, with year-on-year growth

of 2.5% in the final quarter, the highest of any quarter. Growth

was driven mainly by consumer spending, which rose by 3.0%

over the year and by 3.6% year-on-year in the final quarter. Last

year was also marked by relatively strong growth in investment,

which grew by 7%, with additions to inventories contributing just

under a quarter of the total. Government spending, after growing

rapidly at the start of the year, moderated significantly in the final

quarter, mainly due to a real decline in collective spending by

central government. Trends in foreign trade were unfavourable

last year and contributed minus 1.8 percentage points to GDP

growth. Growth in exports of goods and services was down three

percentage points compared with 2002, while growth of imports

increased by 1.3 percentage points. Nevertheless, the end of the

year saw a noticeable improvement in the contribution of foreign

trade to economic growth, as exports began to pick up against

relatively strong imports. If the favourable export trends continue

– although this is not suggested by the January figures – stronger

GDP growth can be expected in the first quarter of the year.

Industrial production figures for January and February

will not be known until the beginning of April because of

Economic activity



2004

annual growth in % 2001 2002 2003 jan

Employees (thousands) 694,8 697,9 699,1 695,3Change in empl.(y.o.y.) 11,8 0,6 1,3 -3,6Employees 1,7 0,4 0,2 0,0of which:

- enterprises 1,8 0,7 0,3 0,1- small business 0,6 -1,5 -1,1 -1,1

Sectors:-private (excl. L..O) 1,5 2,4 -0,3 -0,4-public (L..O) 2,6 -3,7 2,0 1,6

public admin.(L) 3,8 2,3 4,5 2,1

Unemployment rate (ILO) 6,4 6,3 6,7 &Registered unempl.rate 11,6 11,6 11,2 11,3

Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia; Bank of Sloveniacalculations

After a slowdown at the end of last year and the beginning

of this year, the economic climate improved in March. In

addition to revived optimism in manufacturing, this was due to

a lessening of pessimism among consumers. Manufacturers

continue to feel content with the current state of output and of

domestic and foreign orders. By contrast with the favourable

current assessment, forecasts for output, orders and jobs in

the coming months were gloomy at the start of the year, but all

of these indicators improved in March after several months of

pessimism.

The labour market

Total population receipts in January rose 10% year-on-year

or by 5.8% in real terms. The largest growth was in other labour

compensation receipts (7.2%) while the lowest was in labour

compensation receipts (5.0%). The rapid year-on-year growth

of other labour compensation receipts was partly due to the low

base, as these receipts grew the slowest last year of all population

receipts. Year-on-year growth in average nominal net wages in

January was a modest 4.7% (0.7% in real terms), the lowest to

date. The lowest wage growth was in public administration, where

wages were lower in nominal terms than the same month last year,

when twelve-month wage inflation in public administration was

over 15%. Wage growth in the private sector (6.4%) considerably

outstripped public sector wage growth (0.9%) in January as it

did throughout last year.

Employment underwent a seasonal drop in January, but the

year-on-year trend was more positive. The contraction of the

labour force that was observed throughout last year continued

into January, mainly on account of a reduction in the employment

total (whereas last year around 55% of the shrinkage was due

to a reduction in the active population). Besides agriculture, in

the twelve months to January employment fell fastest in labour-

intensive manufacturing sectors and grew in export-oriented

sectors, financial services and public services. The rate of

registered unemployment was 0.3 percentage points lower

than in the same month last year. Unemployment as measured

by the labour force survey was 0.4 percentage points higher last

year than in 2002, consistent with the reduction in the claimant

count throughout last year. This also indicates tougher conditions

in the labour market, with unemployed people being struck from

the records while genuinely failing to find employment, or else

problems with both structural and cyclical unemployment. With

regard to cyclical unemployment, this year we can expect an

improvement, while due to increased competition and opening-up

of the market we can expect to see continued adverse trends in

structural unemployment.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2001 2002 2003 2004

CONFIDENCE INDICATORS(seasonally adjusted)

EU

Slovenia

Germany

Slovenia (published data)

0

5

10

15

20

2001 2002 2003 2004

NET WAGES (annual % growth) Total net wages

Private sector net wages

Public sector net wages

annual growth (%) 2001 2002 2003

SIT thousandsAverage gross wage 214,5 235,4 253,2Average net wage 134,8 147,9 159,1

Average net wage 11,7 9,7 7,5Real wage 3,1 2,1 1,9

Total receipts (SIT bn) 182 201 217Total receipts 10,5 10,7 8,1- net wages 13,2 10,5 8,2- other labour compensation 7,2 6,3 4,6- social transfers 8,8 13,4 10,0Labour costs per employee 10,8 9,0 7,4- average gross wage 12,0 9,8 7,2- average other expenditures 5,6 5,8 7,6- other taxes 11,1 10,4 4,4

2004jan

258,2163,3

4,70,7

21710,0

9,211,410,4

6.2 (12)4,5

11,48.3 (12)

Labour costs: average gross wages (Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia) +other labour compensation (Agency for Public Related Records and RelatedServices)+other taxes (MoF).

Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia; Agency of the Republic ofSlovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services; Bank of Slovenia estimates.



State budget expenditure in the first quarter is likely to

be within the planned level. At the beginning of January the

Ministry of Finance announced that it was planning SIT 386.9

billion of state budget expenditure in the first quarter. The actual

spending figure for January and rough estimates for the next two

months suggest that expenditure in the first quarter will be within

the planned level.

In March, SIT 26 billion of Republic of Slovenia bonds were

issued. The total value of the takeup of the first issue of ten-year

RS57 bonds was SIT 26 billion, with an average yield of 4.93%

per annum. The total nominal value of the issue is planned at

SIT 80 billion and will be realised in the next few months. This

year to mid-March SIT 46 billion of Republic of Slovenia bonds

had been issued.

RevenuesGeneral government revenues grew by 4% last year in real terms

according to provisional figures. The effect of the alignment of the

budget year with the calendar year in 2002 has been excluded

from the calculations. The biggest growth was in corporate

income tax revenue. Taxes on goods and services and non-tax

revenues were also higher than planned last year.

Corporate income tax revenue continues to show the strongest

growth. It totalled SIT 107 billion in the last year, or more than

40% more than the previous year. In January and February this

year, according to provisional figures, it was up by around a third

on the same period of 2003 in nominal terms.

Revenues from taxes on wages grew by 3.6% in real terms

last year and were still growing strongly at the start of

2004. Revenue from income tax, payroll taxes and social

3. PUBLIC SECTOR

Slovenia met both Maastricht fiscal criteria in the last year

and is expected to do so this year too. At the beginning

of March the Ministry of Finance published a Reporting of

Government Deficits and Debt levels, based on ESA95

methodology (in accordance with EU practice). Preliminary

figures indicate that the general government deficit last year was

1.8% of GDP, while the general government debt was 27.1%

of GDP. Slovenia thus met both Maastricht fiscal criteria and is

expected to do so this year too. The report envisaged that this

year the general government deficit will be 1.6% of GDP and the

debt 28% of GDP, both according to ESA95 methodology.

Last year’s general government deficit as measured by

the national methodology was 1.4% of GDP. According to

provisional figures the general government deficit last year was

SIT 80 billion (according to the national methodology, which is

used henceforth in this report), which is 1.4% of estimated GDP.

The outcome was therefore somewhat better than expected.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2001 2002 2003

-4,0

-3,5

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

Revenues ExpedituresBudget balance (right-hand scale)

Consolidated general government revenues,expenditures (SIT billions) and budget balance (% of GDP)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

from state budgetfrom Pension fund

to Pension fund

to Health

Transfers among subsectors of government(SIT billions)

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

personal income and payroll taxescorporate income taxsocial security contributions

Revenue: social security contributions, personal incomeand payroll taxes, and corporate income tax (SIT billions)

68

72

44 46

0

20

40

60

80

100

03* j f m a m j j a s o n d j 04*

of which: VAT

* average per months, 2004: estimated by ARC BS

Revenue: domestic taxes ongoods and services (SIT billions)

total

SIT billions 2003 jan-dec annual(% GDP) str.(%) 2002 2003 gr. rate

Revenues 2.374 41,9 100,0 2 084 2 374 13,9Tax revenues 2.189 38,7 92,2 1 910 2 189 14,7- goods and ser. 815 14,4 34,3 673 815 21,1- soc.sec.contr. 738 13,0 31,1 682 738 8,2- income, profit 461 8,1 19,4 395 461 16,6Other 185 3,3 7,8 174 185 6,0Expenditures 2.454 43,4 100,0 2 240 2 454 9,6Current exp. 1.124 19,9 45,8 1 026 1 124 9,6Current transf. 1.097 19,4 44,7 1.007 1.097 9,0Capital exp.,tran. 233 4,1 9,5 207 233 12,6GG surplus/def. -80 -1,4 -156 -80

(% GDP)

RS debt * 1.473 1.420 26,5

Source: Ministry of finance. 2003: data for september.

Consolidated general government (GG) accounts



security contributions grew by 9.4% in 2003. Social security

contributions grew the least and payroll taxes the most. They

are estimated to have grown by around 3% in real terms in the

first two months of the year.

Consumption based taxes grew last year by 2.7% in real

terms. Total VAT and excise duty revenues last year were higher

than planned by the revised budget. The growth in excise duty

raised was highest in the case of tobacco products as a result of

an increase in the rate of duty. The same is expected this year.

Growth in excise duty was even higher at the start of 2004.

Expenditures

General government expenditures are estimated to have

grown by 3.8% in real terms last year. General government

spending was somewhat higher than envisaged at the time the

revised state budget was accepted. The largest overruns were in

expenditure on interest payments, current transfers (to the Institute

of Pensions and Disability Insurance and public agencies) and the

formation of reserves. Investment spending was lower than planned.

The highest nominal growth was in spending on subsidies, interest

payments, social security allowaces and investment transfers.

Personnel expenditure grew last year by 3.2% in real

terms. The number of public sector employees grew last year

by around 2.5%. Similar growth in the number of employees is

expected for this year and the next.

Expenditure on goods and services grew last year by 2.4%

in real terms. Over the year as a whole they amounted to SIT

452 billion or 2.4% in real terms. Total spending on goods and

services was somewhat higher than envisaged in the revised

budget. In the state budget for 2004 and 2005 the government

foresees a curbing of growth in such expenditure as one of the

measures aimed at restricting budget expenditure.

Transfers to households grew by 2.5% in real terms last

year. The largest growth was in transfers for social security and

sickness benefits. Items growing slower than average included

pensions and unemployment benefits. The basic pension grew by

5.5% and pensions expenditure by 6.6%. Having been adjusted

in September of last year, pensions were once again adjusted in

February this year, when a one-off payment was made to account

for the slower growth of the basic pension than consumer prices

last year.

Investment spending last year fell short of the planned level

despite showing high real growth. Investment expenditure

grew by almost 7% in real terms, but nevertheless fell short of

the planned level. Investment spending and investment transfers

totalled around 4% of GDP over the year as a whole.

Public debt

Republic of Slovenia debt guarantees grew faster than

the public debt last year up to September. Slovenia’s public

debt grew by 3.8% up to September to stand at around 26.5%

of GDP. Republic of Slovenia debt guarantees grew by almost

12% to over 7% of GDP in September.

The debt grew further by the end of the year. Figures for the

public debt at the end of last year will be published at the end of

March. The debt is estimated to have grown further at the end

of last year. The consolidated public sector deficit stood at SIT

31 billion in the final quarter. In October the government issued

bonds of approximatelly the same value.

Public finances in 2004

This year the government is planning a deficit of 1.7% of

GDP. The target for the general government deficit this year is

SIT 107 billion. The budget documents envisage a curbing of

expenditure growth (wages, social transfers and material costs),

which would help maintain the deficit at roughly last year’s level.

Achievement of the planned deficit is subject to certain

risks. The biggest uncertainty surrounds the impact of linkages

between the Slovenian budget and the EU budget. Another

source of risk is the timing and intensity of the economic recovery

and the degree to which budget expenditures can successfully

be restrained. Public revenues will also be affected by the

composition of economic growth.

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2001 2002 2003

goods and services personell expenditurestransfers capital exp. and transfersinterest payments other

Changes in expenditure (in SIT billions)

82

88

53

57

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

03* d j f m a m j j a s o n d 04*

total

of which: pensions

* average per month, 2004: estimated by ARC BS.

Expenditure: transfers to individuals and households(SIT billions)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2000 2001 2002 2003

external debt

domestic debt

Republic of Slovenia debt: domestic and external (SIT billions)



It is questionable whether all available EU budget funds will be

used. The experience of some other countries indicates that it

is questionable whether all available EU budget funds will be

used in the first year of membership. The Ministry of Regional

Development has announced that it will launch a public invitation

to tender for the European Regional Development Fund but has

yet to do so.

A new system for hospital funding will be introduced in

April. From 1 April onwards hospitals, which spend SIT 100

billion annually, will be financed under a new system of funding

allocation. Each patient treatment will be classified in a group

of comparable cases. The Ministry of Finance expects to save

around SIT 5 billion over the next four years as a result of the

new system.

Prices rose in March by 0.6%, helping to bring year-on-year

inflation down to 3.5%. Monthly inflation was 0.1 percentage

points lower than in March last year. The prices of goods and

services rose on average by 0.9% and 0.1%, respectively.

Seasonal movements in food and clothing prices again

influenced March inflation. Like last year, the release of

new spring clothing and footwear had an adverse impact on

the prices of these items. Clothing prices rose on average by

3.9%, while footwear prices grew by 6.1%. Among seasonal

products, fruit, fish and fresh vegetable prices also went up.

However, prices of some package holidays fell on average by

2.2%, while motor cars were 0.8% cheaper. Rise in food and

clothing prices contributed the most to the inflation, adding

together 0.5 percentage points.

Free prices continue to moderate, while their year-on-

year growth fell to 3.8% in February. After growing by 0.5%

in January, free prices remained constant and did not rise in

February. The downward trend in free prices is evident, while

trying to establish a gradual and sustainable decline in inflation.

Unlike free prices, administered prices grew by 3.1% year-

on-year in February, while their share in the CPI rose to

18%. Monthly growth in administered prices was 0.6%, largely

due to a 4.0% rise in electricity prices and a 1.9% rise in water

supply prices. In February the Slovenian government added to

the list of goods, which are subject to price regulation, a number

of goods that could potentially increase in price in the near future

by more than is economically justified and in accordance with

macroeconomic policy. As a result, the share of administered

prices in the consumer price index grew by two percentage

points to 18%.

4. PRICES

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

200220032004

MONTHLY INFLATION RATES

0

2

4

6

8

10

2001 2002 2003 2004

* Excludes prices of energy, prices of seasonal foodstuffs and tax effects

CPI - all itemsCore inflation*EU (12) CPI(annual % growth)

2001 2002 2003 20042

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

InflationIndustrial producer pricesEuro exchange rate(annual % growth)

% of GDP 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Consolidated general gov. accounts, national methodologyRevenues 40,9 41,5 39,5 41,8 42,3 42,7Expenditures 42,2 42,8 42,5 43,3 44,1 44,3GG surplus/deficit -1,3 -1,3 -3,0 -1,6 -1,7 -1,6

state budget -0,9 -1,0 -2,6 -1,2 -1,5 -1,7soc. sec. funds -0,4 -0,2 -0,2 -0,3 -0,2 0,2muncipalities 0,0 0,0 -0,2 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1

RS debt 24,0 25,9 26,9 27,8 27,7 26,9

ESA 95 Methodology

GG surplus/deficit -3,1 -2,7 -2,4 -2,0 -1,6 -1,6

Source: Ministry of Finance Bulletin, Pre-Accession EconomicProgramm, August 2003, National Assembly Reporter, No. 83

% growth jan.04 feb.04 jan.04 feb.04CPI all items 4,0 3,6 0,4 0,1Administered prices 2,8 3,1 0,1 0,6Free prices 4,4 3,8 0,5 0,0Core inflation 3,1 3,0 0,0 0,1Retail prices 3,9 3,7 0,3 0,3Industrial producer prices 2,3 3,5 0,4 1,0- Intermediate goods 2,7 4,8 0,7 1,8- Capital goods -1,2 0,8 -0,9 0,1- Consumption goods 2,8 2,9 0,5 0,4Selected inflationary factors- Import prices 3,1 ... -0,1 ...- SIT/EUR exchange rate 2,7 2,6 0,2 0,1- Nominal eff. exchange rate -0,6 -0,4 -0,3 0,1EU(12) inflation 1,9 1,6 -0,2 0,1

Annual Monthly

Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Breakdown of CPI by Bank ofSlovenia and Institute of Macro economic Analysis and Development, othercalculations by Bank of Slovenia. Figures maynotsum to official figures due torounding.



The market share of Slovenian exporters on the markets

of the EU(15) has shrunk since the introduction of the

euro. The market share of Slovenian exporters in the EU(15)

was 0.68% in 1999 and only 0.59% a year later. Since then it

has gradually recovered and in 2002 (the last full year of available

data) it reached 0.66%, still 3% lower than in 1999. Over the

same period the EU(15) market share of Poland rose from 2.32%

to 3.02%, that of the Czech Republic from 2.22% to 2.81%,

that of Hungary from 2.3% and 2.77% and that of Slovakia from

0.73% to 0.93%. Slovenian export competitiveness measured

in terms of market share has weakened seriously in comparison

with these countries over the period concerned.

The market share of highly processed goods has

diminished especially. The deterioration in Slovenian export

competitiveness compared with the Central European countries

mentioned above is all the more marked if we take into account

the fact that in the period concerned the market share of highly

processed goods shrank the most. The market share of exports

of chemical and similar products fell by 5%, that of other industrial

products by 7% and that of machinery and transport equipment

by 11%.

Core inflation fell again in February to 3.0% year-on-year.

As well as headline inflation, core inflation is falling too. In

February, year-on-year core inflation was 0.1 percentage points

lower than in January.

Industrial producer prices grew in February by 3.5% year-

on-year, making their growth almost caught up with the

growth of consumer prices. Among industrial products the

fastest growth, of 1.0%, had intermediate goods prices. Prices

of consumption goods rose by 0.4%, while capital goods rose

again after a fall in recent months. The strong price growth was

largely attributable to the increase in electricity prices. However,

according to the Slovenian government no further rises in

electricity prices are planned for this year.

5. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Competitiveness

The nominal effective exchange rate of the tolar, measured

in terms of a basket of currencies, depreciated in February

after appreciating at the end of last year and the beginning

of this year. The weakening was very slight, at only 0.1%. In

the context of a virtually unchanged US dollar exchange rate,

the depreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate of the

tolar was due mainly to its weakening against the euro by just

under 0.2%. In the year to February, on the other hand, the tolar

appreciated by 0.4%.

The deterioration in the competitiveness of the Slovenian

economy, measured in terms of the real effective

exchange rate, continued into the beginning of the year.

The deterioration was most marked if measured in terms of

producer prices, specifically 1.3% in the first two months of the

year. This was due in small part to the appreciation of the nominal

effective exchange rate of the tolar (0.1%), but mainly to the high

growth of domestic producer prices. The 1% growth in February

(due especially to 5.2% higher prices of energy-producing

materials) was responsible for of the 3.5% year-on-year growth in

producer prices. The rise in producer prices can be expected to

translate into higher consumer prices and so indirectly contribute

to a deterioration of Slovenian competitiveness as measured

through these prices.

The terms of trade of Slovenian exporters deteriorated

around the turn of the year. This change did not affect average

twelve-month growth of tolar export and import prices in 2003,

and with it the terms of trade. Faster growth of tolar import prices

than export prices began only in the third quarter of last year

onwards. Tolar export prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year to January,

while import prices grew by 2.7%. Accordingly, the terms of trade

for the Slovenian economy deteriorated by 3.1%.

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

2001 2002 2003 2004

REAL EFFECTIVE TOLAREXCHANGE RATE (1995=100)

CPIproducer pricesunit labour costs

Growth of index indicates growth in value of tolar.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001 2002 2003 2004

terms of tradeexport prices (SIT)import prices (SIT)

(annual % growth)

TERMS OF TRADE

dec.01 dec.02 dec.03 jan.04 feb.04Nom. eff. SIT ex. rate (1) -4,3 -1,4 0,8 0,3 0,1Real effective SIT exchange rate (2):- CPI 0,8 3,8 3,8 0,5 0,5- Producer prices 3,7 0,9 2,0 0,5 1,3- Unit labour costs 0,6 3,0 0,0 ... ...

Real SIT exchange rate:EUR (CPI) -0,4 0,6 -0,3 0,1 -0,1USD (CPI) -0,2 14,6 20,3 2,7 2,21) Effective exchange rate: basket of 7 currencies of Slovenias main foreign tradingpartners (excluding Croatia), weighted by the shares in Slovenian goods trade. FromJanuary 2002 onward three currencies (EUR, USD, CHF) are used in thecalculation. 2) Real exchange rate: SIT exchange rate divided by relative(domestic/foreign) price ratio.

Mthly % growthAnnual % growth



Current Account

The long-term trend towards a balanced current account

of the balance of payments that began in the last quarter

of 2003 continued in January of this year. Following two

successive months of deficit in current transactions, a surplus

of EUR 74 million was recorded in January this year. Compared

with the same month of 2003 this was down by EUR 14 million

or 16%, while the cumulative current account surplus in 2003

(EUR 17 million) fell by EUR 2 million in the last twelve months.

Over one-half of the deterioration in the current account surplus

in January relative to twelve months previously was due to poorer

performance in trade in goods and over one-third to trade in

services.

The trend in the growth of exports of goods and services

continued into the start of the year. In 2003 exports of goods

and services grew 2.7% year-on-year, twice as slowly as imports

of goods and services, which grew by 5.5%. Similar trends were

in evidence in January this year. Exports of goods and services

grew by 0.6% year-on-year to EUR 1,039 million while imports

grew by 1.6% to EUR 990 million. As a result, the surplus in the

trade of goods and services fell year-on-year by EUR 13 million

to EUR 49 million. In the context of slower growth of goods

exports last year, the poorer balance of trade with the rest of the

world was due mainly to reduced income from services. Over

the whole of last year services income rose by a modest 0.6%,

while expenditure rose by 5.6%. The gap between the growth in

exports and imports of services continued in January, when both

exports and imports were down on the same month of 2003, by

5.4% and 3.1% respectively.

Buyoant economic growth abroad in the third quarter of

last year spurred growth of Slovenian goods exports until

the start of the last quarter.

The boost in goods exports peaked in October and has

fallen away since then. In January of this year goods exports

totalled EUR 857 million, the same as in December last year, and

up 1.1% year-on-year. Demand for Slovenian exports from the

EU(15) actually dropped by 3.6%. Among Slovenia’s main foreign

trade partners from the EU(15), the drop in demand was strongest

in the case of the United Kingdom (13%), France (9%), Italy

(8%) and Austria and Germany (5% and 4% respectively). Spain

and Denmark maintained their strength of demand for Slovenian

goods exports, albeit starting from a low base. Demand from non-

European OECD countries was down on last year (by 12%), but

was still relatively strong. Exports to the CEFTA countries grew

by 13% year-on-year, especially in Romania (37%), Poland (21%)

and Slovakia (20%). Growth in exports of goods to the countries

of the former Yugoslavia (4.5%) and former Soviet Union (12.5%)

was also above average.

Lower nominal growth in goods exports in January was

partly due to a drop in export prices. After stripping out the

impact of changes in export prices, the volume of exports grew

by 3% year-on-year or by a quarter less than the average for the

last twelve months. Growth in exports of intermediate goods and

to a lesser extent capital goods remained relatively high, while

consumer goods exports declined by 1.9%.

Growth in goods imports has been slowing since the

second half of last year. Imports in January totalled EUR

882 million, 1.5% higher than in the same month of last year.

The deficit widened slightly by EUR 3 million to EUR 25 million,

while the coverage of imports by exports was above average at

97%. The regional pattern of goods imports in January showed a

0,1%1,4%0,2%

0,4%4,9%7,9%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2001 2002 2003 2004

CURRENT AND FINANCIAL INFLOWS (% of GDP)(average of last 12 months)

change in foreign exchange reservescurrent accountnet financial flow

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

2001 2002 2003 2004

balance (right-hand axis)

exports

imports

TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES(EUR millions, seasonally adjusted)

60

100

140

180

220

2001 2002 2003 2004

EU Former YugoslaviaFormer USSR TotalCEFTA

Exports by region(2000=100, seasonally adjusted)

2002 2003 last12 mths 2003 2004

Goods trade (EUR millions) :Exports (FOB) 10.962 11.285 11.294 847 857Imports (CIF) 11.574 12.237 12.250 869 882of which: oil (SITC 33) 584 629 618 49 38

Balance -612 -952 -956 -22 -25Import coverage (%) 94,7 92,2 92,2 97,5 97,2Estimated volumes (annual % growth):Exports 5,3 3,6 3,8 1,1 3,1- intermediate goods 4,6 5,2 5,1 6,8 5,1- capital goods 5,0 2,2 2,5 0,0 4,8- consumption goods 7,2 1,4 1,7 -5,8 -1,9Imports 3,2 6,5 6,6 -0,9 0,6- intermediate goods 5,8 3,6 3,3 1,2 -3,1- capital goods 1,4 12,9 13,6 -1,6 9,1- consumption goods 1,5 8,1 8,8 -5,4 4,2

Sources: Goods trade: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Goods tradevolumes: BoS estimates, Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, IFS, IMF

Jan-Jan



continuation of the same trends as throughout last year. Imports

of goods from the EU(15) are growing above average while those

from the countries of CEFTA, the former Yugoslavia and the

former Soviet Union are growing more slowly than average or

are actually declining.

These trends are also associated with changes in the

composition of imported goods by purpose. Imports of

capital and consumer goods were up, while intermediate goods

imports grew more slowly and indeed decreased, by 3% year-

on-year. Manufacturing output and goods exports are positively

correlated with growth in imports of intermediate goods and we

therefore do not expect to see any major changes in foreign

export demand for Slovenian goods in the next few months.

The narrowing trend in the surplus in trade in services

observed last year continued in January. Exports of services

were worth EUR 170 million, down 5% on the same month of

last year, imports were worth EUR 124 million, down 3%, while

the surplus was EUR 46 million, down 12%. While trends in

exports of transportation, travel, communication, and computer

and information services were fairly favourable, exports in the

category other business services fell by more than half to EUR

16 million. The largest decrease was a drop of EUR 25 million in

revenues from intermediation services. On the imports side, the

largest fall was in services related to the import of goods, namely

transportation, by 9%. Growth in imports of travel services and

other business services was more modest. The largest rise, of

16%, was in imports of services in the category patents, licences

and copyrights.

Tourism exports in January grew faster than imports. Over

twelve months the surplus rose by EUR 2 million to EUR 56

million. In the twelve months to January the number of foreign

tourists grew by 5% and the number of overnight stays by 3%.

The fastest growth was in the number of foreign guests from the

15 EU member states, which, if this trend continues, implies that

tourism performance will improve in future months. It is significant

that, after a lengthy period of decline or stagnation, numbers of

foreign tourists are increasing from such countries as Germany

(22%) and Italy (11%).

Net income and transfers were positive in January and

amounted to EUR 25 million. Net compensation of employees

stabilised at EUR 14 million, similar to the level in January 2003.

Net capital inflows increased by a modest EUR 4 million to EUR

8 million. Outflows decreased by less than inflows. The 22%

decrease in capital outflows was mainly influenced by a halving

of interest payments (EUR 7 million) by firms and households.

The trend towards a marked reduction in net transfer inflows

continued in January. There were no official transfers to Slovenia

in January, while on the side of outflows the largest growth was in

other transfers to the rest of the world, which grew by 28%.

Financial Account

In financial transactions with the rest of the world outflows

exceeded inflows by EUR 75 million in January, as in the

same month of last year. Twelve-month net inflows thus

remained low at 0.4% of GDP. Claims of the private sector

towards the rest of the world increased by EUR 190 million and

obligations by EUR 89 million. In the other sectors there were no

major financial transactions with the rest of the world.

The high growth of claims towards the rest of the world

in January reflects seasonally high levels of trade credits

and continued strong outflows of foreign currency via the

households. Investment in foreign securities and lending to the

rest of the world are maintaining strong growth in comparison

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2001 2002 2003 2004

current account servicesincome and transfers goods

COMPONENTS OF CURRENT ACCOUNT(EUR millions, seasonally adjusted)

-160-120

-80-40

04080

120160200240280320360400

2000 2001 2002 2003

net financial inflow(private sector)current account(EUR millions)

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2001 2002 2003 2004

intermediate goodscapital goodsconsumption goods

GOODS IMPORTS (VOLUMES)(1995=100; seasonally adjusted)

lastflows in EUR millions 2002 2003 12 mths 2003 2004

Current account 330 17 2 88 74% of GDP 1,4 0,1 0,0

Goods and services 361 -3 -16 62 49% of GDP 1,6 0,0 -0,1Openness coefficient 114,5 114,5 124,3 106,6 101,1

Exports 13.530 13.891 13.894 1.036 1.039% of GDP 58,0 57,3 62,1Goods 11.081 11.427 11.439 856 869Services 2.449 2.465 2.455 180 170- Tourism 1.143 1.182 1.185 81 83- Transportation 634 679 684 46 51

Imports -13.169 -13.894 -13.910 -975 -990% of GDP 56,5 57,3 62,2Goods -11.347 -11.971 -11.990 -847 -867Services -1.822 -1.924 -1.920 -127 -124- Tourism -638 -667 -667 -27 -28- Transportation -385 -420 -417 -29 -26

Labour income 159 158 158 14 14Investment income -334 -231 -227 4 8

Current transfers 142 93 87 9 4Source: Bank of Slovenia

Jan-Jan



In January the private sector again stepped up its

borrowing from abroad, primarily by banks and to a

lesser extent by corporations. A net total of EUR 55 million

of loans flowed into Slovenia, of which banks borrowed EUR

35 million and corporations EUR 20 million. The strong rise in

bank borrowing abroad last year increased the banking sector’s

share of the total external debt on the basis of borrowing by

almost three percentage points, from 14.6% at the end of

2002 to 17.5% at the end of this January. At the same time the

corresponding share of corporations increased by less than half

of one percentage point.

Gross external debt stood at EUR 13,079 million at the

end of January, EUR 83 million more than at the end of

2003. Between 2000 and last December the external debt was

consistently lower than external claims (in debt instruments)

towards the rest of the world, but this situation changed at the

end of last year. The deterioration in the net external debt position

in December was due to a drop in trade credits to the rest of

the world of almost EUR 300 million (due partly to more rapid

settlements at the end of the year and partly to debt write-offs),

or by a further EUR 87 million if trade credits between affiliated

enterprises are taken into account. There was also a drop in trade

credits on the liabilities side, although smaller: by EUR 130 million

or EUR 208 million taking into account affiliated enterprises.

with the last quarter of last year, while direct investments remain

at last year’s average of around EUR 20 million a month.

The flow of outward direct investments was worth EUR 21

million in January, less than half as much as in January

2003. For a third successive month they were exceeded by

portfolio investments, which totalled EUR 167 million cumulatively

over twelve months. In addition to banks and insurance

companies, households and other financial intermediaries

(stockbroking companies) are becoming increasingly involved

in foreign securities transactions, while corporations are doing

so somewhat less than last year.

The increasing trend in lending abroad continued in

January. Together, corporations and banks lent EUR 32

million abroad in January. The flow of loans has been particularly

strong in the last five months, when the volume of lending has been

EUR 268 million, as much as in the whole of 2003.

Total liabilities towards the rest of the world rose in January

by EUR 89 million. Foreign inward investment accounted for

one-third of the total inflow and foreign lending for the rest. At

EUR 28 million, foreign lending was twice as high as the monthly

average for 2003, but still far below the average inflow of the

previous year. Unlike last year, January’s inward direct investment

was almost totally in the form of equity investment and very little of

it represented debt finance between affiliated enterprises. There

were no major portfolio investment transactions by foreigners in

January (net inflow of EUR 2 million).

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2001 2002 2003

banks

enterprises

FOREIGN LENDING(EUR millions)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003

banksgovernmententerprises

FOREIGN BORROWING(EUR millions)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 J F M A M J J A S O N D J

debt/claims (right-hand axis)gross external claimsgross external debt

GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT(% of GDP )

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES' ADEQUACY

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

16%

20%

24%

28%

32%

36%

40%

2001 2002 2003 2004

FX reserves/short term debt by remaining maturityFX reserves/GDP (right-hand axis)

lastFlows in EUR millions 2002 2003 12 mths 2003 2004

1. Current account 330 17 2 88 742. Neto financial flows 1.149 92 87 -70 -75

- % of GDP 4,9 0,4 0,4 -3,7 -3,7of which: external debt (est.) 1.226 1.935 1.853 152 713. Foreign exc.reserves -1.479 -108 -90 -18 1

- Bank of Slovenia -1.876 -281 -305 -17 -40- banks 397 173 215 -1 41

4. Private sector 1.297 185 159 -76 -102

Claims -1.535 -1.602 -1.607 -185 -190Outward FDI -99 -269 -244 -46 -21Potrfolio investments -144 -161 -167 -18 -24Net trade credits -413 -235 -238 -68 -72Loans -238 -261 -284 -9 -32Households -578 -591 -606 -46 -61

Liabilities 2.832 1.787 1.767 109 89Inward FDI 1.707 160 215 -27 28Potrfolio investments 27 34 30 5 2Loans 929 1.198 1.181 72 55- enterprises 561 524 492 52 20- banks 368 674 689 20 35Deposits at banks 130 428 363 71 6

5. Government -95 -126 -137 7 -3

Sourcer: Bank of Slovenia. 1) Private sector = non-goverment sector, thus includingpublic sector organisations.

Jan

Signs: inflows or increases in liabilities (+), outflows or increases in claims (-).Increases in foreign exchange reserves (-), increases in debt (+).



The impact of transactions with the rest of the world on

foreign exchange reserves in January was neutral: the

current surplus was only EUR 1 million smaller than the

financial deficit. Nevertheless, the balance of foreign exchange

reserves rose by EUR 19 million, to EUR 7,719 million. Judging

by the stock of reserves at the end of February, which grew by

only EUR 6 million compared with January, transactions with

the rest of the world were once again practically balanced in

February. Foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to cover 6.7

months of imports of goods and services, somewhat less than

last year, and more than a year previously. The level of reserves

covers almost 170% of short-term debt maturing within the next

twelve months.

6. MONEY AND CREDIT

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

M3M2M1

MONETARY AGGREGATES(annual % growth)

Growth of broad money (M3) remained low in February. In

February M3 grew by SIT 8.1 billion (0.2%). Annual M3 growth,

which has been on a downward trend for two years, was 5.9%

(compared with 6.2% in January).

M3 growth in February was mainly due to an increase in

tolar-denominated deposits, while the volume of foreign

currency deposits was unchanged. The reduction in domestic

nominal interest rates prompted a reduction in tolar-denominated

deposits, especially time deposits, in the second half of last year.

In February, for the first time in three months, tolar-denominated

deposits were again the main factor in M3 growth, rising by SIT

16.0 billion, of which SIT 4.7 billion was demand deposits and

SIT 11.3 billion was time deposits.

Amongst tolar-denominated time deposits, only deposits

with agreed maturity up to three months increased, while

long-term time deposits fell. Deposits with agreed maturity

between one and three months increased in February. This was

the only category of time deposits to have increased in the last

three months. Deposits with agreed maturity up to 31 days grew

by SIT 3.9 billion, those with agreed maturity between three

months and a year remained largely unchanged, while deposits

with agreed maturity larger than a year fell by SIT 2.1 billion.

Annual growth of M1 at the start of the year was somewhat

faster than the average for last year. In February M1 grew

by 0.7% or 13.4% year-on-year. Following the seasonal drop in

M1 in January (by SIT 14.9 billion) it grew in February by SIT 5.1

billion. Amongst the M1 components demand deposits grew by

14.2% in the twelve months to February (SIT 4.7 billion), faster

than currency, which grew by 10.1%.

Among M3 counterparts only bank credit rose in February,

as the contribution of Balance of payments flows was once

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2001 2002 2003 2004

COMPONENTS OF M3(annual % growth)

Demand depositsCashTolar time depositsForeign exchange deposits

SUPPLY OF M3(12 month flow in SIT billions)

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2001 2002 2003 2004

M3Net foreign assetsDomestic lending

At end of period, 2004EUR millions 2001 2002 2003 feb.

Foreign exchange reserves 6.513 7.842 7.700 7.725FX reserves/GDP (%) 29,9 33,6 31,8 31,7FX reserves/imports (months) 6,1 7,1 6,7 6,7

jan.Gross external debt 10.403 11.483 12.995 13.079Gross debt/GDP (%) 47,7 49,3 53,6 53,7

Short term debt by remaining 4.569 4.448 4.555 4.572maturity 1)FX reserves/short-term debt (%) 142,6 176,1 169,0 168,8Net external debt 2) -422 -1.101 186 194

Source: Bank of Slovenia

1) Non-equity debt to the rest of the world with remaining maturity of 12 months orless. 2) Gross external debt net of non-equity claims towards the rest of the world.

Flow LevelSIT billions Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 04 Feb 041. Currency 7,1 10,1 0,4 153,32. Demand deposits 13,9 14,2 4,7 634,13. M1 (1+2) 12,5 13,4 5,1 787,44. Time deposits 16,0 2,9 11,3 1.588,5

up to 30 days -9,1 13,8 3,9 106,731 to 90 days 32,4 43,0 8,9 492,891 to 365 days 10,5 -10,0 0,6 559,8over one year 19,5 -11,2 -2,1 429,1

5. Securities issued by banks 95,7 4,0 -9,9 210,26. Time deposits at BoS 965,8 -1,2 4,0 110,87. Restricted deposits -29,3 62,2 -2,4 11,68. M2 (3+4+5+6+7) 22,1 5,8 8,0 2.708,69. Foreign currency deposits 1,7 6,0 0,0 1.084,010. M3 (8+9) 15,5 5,9 8,1 3.792,6

Sectoral composition of tolar depositsEnterprises 12,2 1,6 7,8 510,6Other financial organisations -1,4 -1,0 -1,9 230,7Households 19,3 9,2 2,5 1299,4Government 6,8 7,3 3,3 177,1


Annual growth (%)

2001 2002 2003 2004



again negative. With the exception of January, net foreign

assets have fallen over the last six months. This was related to

the increase in banks’ foreign liabilities. Net foreign assets fell

by SIT 31.9 billion in February, and by SIT 18.8 billion in the

first two months. Domestic credit increased by SIT 49.2 billion

in February and by SIT 73.2 billion in the first two months.

Bank credit continues to grow. Domestic credit grew by

16.2% in the twelve months to February. The rate of growth

of investment thus approached the rate from the 2000-2002,

before it began to decline. Domestic credit amounted to SIT 49.2

billion in February, of which around half (SIT 24.6 billion) was to

enterprises and other financial institutions, SIT 14.5 billion was to

government and SIT 10.0 billion was to households. Bank loans

to enterprises were SIT 28.3 billion but credit was lower as banks

reduced the value of corporate securities in their portfolios (by

SIT 8.5 billion). The drop in securities in banks’ portfolios in the

first two months of the year matched their increase at the end of

last year (around SIT 20 billion).

Foreign currency domestic credit made up half of total

domestic credit. Foreign currency lending has been important

part of domestic credit since November last year. Since then

around half of bank lending has been in the domestic currency

and half in foreign currency.

Enterprises borrowing abroad has been growing at a stable

rate since mid-2003. Foreign lending to Slovenian enterprises is

growing at around 20% a year, having risen from a rate of around

17% at the beginning of 2003. In January enterprises and other

financial institutions borrowed SIT 9.5 billion net foreign loans, or

about one-third of total borrowing (at home and abroad).

Enterprises continue to borrow from domestic banks mainly

in foreign currency. In February enterprises borrowed SIT 28.3

billion from domestic banks, of which SIT 23.1 billion in foreign

currency. Foreign currency lending to enterprises continues to

grow at high rates, while the growth of tolar-denominated loans

has slowed (39.4% or 13.0% in February). In the first two months

of the year foreign currency lending made up 81% of domestic

borrowing by enterprises, while tolar-denominated loans taken

out by enterprises at home in the first two months was exclusively

short-term. In the same period of last year enterprises at home

borrowed only in foreign currency, while making net repayments

of tolar-denominated loans.

Household borrowing remains fairly low, but is growing

steadily. In January and February households borrowed SIT 6.0

billion net from domestic banks, exclusively through long-term

loans (SIT 7.7 billion). In February overdrafts grew somewhat (by

SIT 2.2 billion), although repayment of this form of borrowing in

January was twice as high as this (SIT 4.2 billion). Annual growth

DOMESTIC BANK LENDING(annual % growth)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2001 2002 2003 2004

enterpriseshouseholdsgovernment

LOANS TO ENTERPRISES(12 month flow in SIT billions)

0

100

200

300

400

500

2001 2002 2003 2004

totaldomestic banksfrom abroad

0

5

10

15

20

2001 2002 2003 2004

short-termlong-term

DOMESTIC BANK LENDING TO HOUSEHOLDS(annual % growth)

Sources of M3 creation Flow LevelSIT billions Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 04 Feb 041. NET FOREIGN ASSETS 16,2 -13,9 -31,9 1.252,8

Bank of Slovenia 9,1 20,2 62,4 1.219,6Banks 36,3 -92,5 -94,3 33,2

2. LOANS AND SECURITIES 11,2 16,2 49,2 3.192,3

Enterprises 10,2 18,4 19,8 1.753,9Other financial organisations 29,9 41,6 4,8 111,8Households 7,8 13,2 10,0 650,9Government 14,8 10,3 14,5 675,8

3. CAPITAL AND RESERVES 12,3 8,1 -3,1 -773,5

4. OTHER 515,7 27,2 6,2 -121,0

5. M3 (1+2+3+4) 15,5 5,9 8,1 3.792,6


Annual growth (%)

DOMESTIC LENDING Annual growth (%) Increase StockSIT millions Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 04 Feb 04

to enterprises 9,8 19,3 28,3 1.646,6

short-term -2,5 6,7 5,1 532,3long-term 2,5 13,0 0,1 487,6foreign-currency 38,7 39,4 23,1 626,7

to other fin. orgs. 29,3 49,6 3,2 87,8

short-term 24,7 22,2 0,5 32,6long-term 3,6 165,7 1,2 23,5foreign-currency 50,0 36,8 1,5 31,7

to households 7,7 12,8 9,1 643,6

short-term 5,9 13,1 2,3 125,9long-term 8,2 12,8 6,9 517,7

to government 22,5 14,3 0,0 152,2

short-term -55,4 76,8 0,2 32,8long-term 89,1 5,9 -0,2 106,5foreign-currency 0,8 -8,3 0,0 12,9

jan.04 jan.04 jan.04LOANS FROM ABROAD 15,7 18,5 9,0 1.292,0

to enterprises + OFOs 18,6 21,2 9,5 1.129,2

to government -21,5 -18,0 -0,3 77,6

TOTAL LOANS 12,2 17,7 33,0 3.787,7Source: Bank of Slovenia



rates of the latter stood at more than 10%, with the highest close

to 70%. Growth of the total banking system is only 11.6%.

Growth of investments in securities continues to decline

while that of loans continues to rise gradually. Year-on-

year growth of loans and advances to households continues to

increase. In the first two months of the year total loans grew by

3.0% while investments in securities grew by only 2.2%. Total

twelve-month growth in investments fell below 10% in February

to 9.7%. Growth of investments in Bank of Slovenia securities fell

below 8%, while that of government securities was over 9%. Other

investments in securities grew by more than average (over 20%),

although these are a small component of the total. Year-on-year

growth of loans was somewhat under 20%. Growth of loans to

enterprises was similar. Compared to January the twelve-month

growth of loans and advances to households rose again, by 1.7

percentage points to 13.6%. The proportion of securities and

loans in total assets have changed little in recent months.

Foreign currency lending by banks is well ahead of tolar-

denominated lending, which continues to increase the

proportion of foreign currency loans in total lending.

Annual growth in foreign currency lending in February was

close to 40%, while tolar-denominated loans grew by a little

over 12%. Compared with January, annual growth of short-term

foreign currency loans rose particularly strongly, by as much as

five percentage points to 45.3%. Growth of short-term foreign

currency loans was some ten percentage points below this. The

share of foreign currency loans outstanding in total lending is

approaching 30% (currently 29%).

On the financing side, growth of bank deposits has been

weak for a considerable time, while banks borrowing,

especially through foreign institutions, continues to

grow strongly. Banks borrowing grew 44% year-on-year,

while financing through liabilities to foreign banks grew by close

to 50%. The same applies to the first two months of this year.

Liabilities in the form of deposits grew by little more than one per

cent while liabilities towards banks grew by 3.3%, including 5%

in household borrowing rose again slightly in February to 12.8%

from 11.1% in January.

General government borrowing from domestic banks

in the first two months of the year was up compared

with recent months. In the first two months of the year the

government sector borrowed SIT 37.9 billion, of which SIT

8.8 billion was in loans and SIT 21.9 billion in securities. The

government has not borrowed abroad for several months.

7. BANKING

6

10

14

18

22

26

30

2001 2002 2003 2004

Large banksMedium-sized banksSmall banks

(annual % growth)

TOTAL ASSETS

Growth in banks’ total assets in February was similar to

January. Annual growth was 11.6%, 0.3 percentage points

higher than the previous month. After very modest monthly

growth in January (0.2%), total assets grew in February by over

one per cent.

Growth in volume of transactions of medium-sized and

small banks continues to outstrip that of large institutions.

The growth of total assets of small banks is more volatile than that

of medium-sized banks. In February total assets of medium-sized

banks grew by a little over one per cent, that of large banks by

somewhat less (0.9%), and that of small banks by 2.2%. In the

twelve months to February total assets of small banks grew by

19.6%, those of medium-sized banks grew by 15.6%, and those

of large banks by little more than 8%.

The market share of the three largest banks by total assets

fell by 2.1 percentage points between February 2003 and

February 2004. The top three banks nevertheless continue to

command over half of total banking system assets. The decline

in their market share is due to the rapid growth of medium-sized

and in particular certain small (Austrian) banks. Annual growth

Source: monthly bank figures. 1) All securities, including bills at Bank of Slovenia.2) Cash, fixed asset and accrued income and prepayments. 3) Liabilities towardsdomestic and foreign banks and the Bank of Slovenia. 4) For potential and generalrisks combined.

BALANCE SHEETLevel in SIT; growth in % 2002 2003 feb.04 dec.03Assets

Loans to banks 381,2 338,5 293,2 -13,4Loans to non-banks 2182,1 2517,4 2594,0 3,0

of which enterprises 1282,8 1592,9 1641,7 3,1&.households 562,8 629,2 639,9 1,7...other financial orgs. 74,7 102,4 108,6 6,1

Securities 1) 1547,1 1719,6 1758,2 2,2Capital investments 68,7 80,5 81,3 0,9Other 2) 377,4 377,8 372,9 -1,3

LiabilitiesBanks 3) 584,7 813,6 840,7 3,3Deposits by non-banks 3149,4 3293,1 3327,8 1,1Securities 176,5 216,4 204,6 -5,4Provisions 4) 91,6 100,7 101,8 1,1Subordinated debt 68,4 95,9 97,7 1,8Equity 380,3 421,6 422,4 0,2Other 105,7 92,6 104,5 12,9

TOTAL ASSETS 4556,6 5033,8 5099,6 1,3

growth sinceLevel

INCOME STATEMENT 2004SIT billions; growth in % 2002 2003 Jan-Feb. growth

Interest income 344,1 330,3 48,6 -16,0Interest expense 200,7 185,0 26,3 -21,5Net interest income 143,4 145,3 22,3 -8,3Non-interest income 81,0 83,0 14,0 29,1

Gross income 224,4 228,3 36,3 3,2Operating costs 133,9 142,6 20,8 1,1Net provisions 44,5 36,5 4,2 96,4Profit before tax 46,0 49,2 11,3 -9,1Taxes 16,5 16,9 ... ...Profit after tax 29,5 32,3 ...

y.o.y.



growth in liabilities to foreign banks. There is also strong growth in

subordinated liabilities, which form only a small fraction of banks’

total liabilities but are important in ensuring capital adequacy.

Among non-bank deposits, demand deposits are growing

fastest. In terms of currency denomination, tolar deposits are

growing fractionally faster than foreign currency deposits. Non-

bank demand deposits grew by 14.1% and short-term deposits by

4.6% in the twelve months to February, while long-term deposits

were down by 11.2%. Growth of tolar-denominated deposits

was 6.2%, 0.6 percentage points higher than growth in foreign

currency deposits.

According to the closing accounts published by banks in

March for the end of the previous year, changes were only

minor. Provisioning costs were slightly higher (by SIT 1 billion) and

operating expenses up fractionally (by SIT 0.6 billion), depressing

profits, which were SIT 49.2 billion on corrected figures.

These changes had no significant impact on operating

ratios for 2003 as a whole. The ratio of non-interest revenue to

operating expenses in 2003 was 58.2%, down 2.3 percentage

points on 2002. Despite the subsequent increase, the ratio

of provisioning costs to net income, at 42.6%, was down 6.5

percentage points on the previous year. The ratio of operating

costs to gross income in 2003 (the cost-income ratio) was

62.5%, up 2.8 percentage points. The return on assets and

equity were both down slightly, by 0.1 and 0.5 percentage

points respectively.

Apart from decrease in net interest income, movements in

items on the income statement were favourable in the first

two months of this year compared with the same period last

year. Non-interest income was up strongly, operating expenses

grew only slightly, and provisioning expenses were higher.

Banks’ interest margins narrowed again by the end of

February. The non-interest part of the margin has been widening

slightly in recent months. Interest margins are narrowing because

of lower interest rates on Bank of Slovenia securities and reduced

interest rates on loans. Measured as a ratio to total assets (and

calculated over the last twelve months) the interest margin was

just over 2.9% at the end of February 2004. The non-interest

margin has risen somewhat in recent months. Having fallen below

1.7% last November, it rose to 4.6% by the end of February. The

overall financial intermediation margin thus remained at 4.7%.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001 2002 2003 2004

Interest marginNon-interest marginFinancial intermediation margin

Movements in the financial intermediationmargin (%, 12 month moving average)

* Margins calculated on the basis of net non-interest income, netinterest income and total assets.

2411

3522

14

36

116

57

173

143

81

224

145

83

228

0

50

100

150

200

250

Net interest income Net non-interestincome*

Gross income

200120022003

*net provisions, net income fromfinancial transactions and other net

INCOME section ofbanks' incomestatement: SIT billions 2003 (1-2)

2004 (1-2)

0,5

4,83,3 3,6

1,1

13,3

3,2 3,7

12,8

3,0 3,21,7

22,4

2,83,6

1,4

17,7

2,5 2,9

1,0

0

5

10

15

20

25

ROA ROE Operatingexpenses/assets

Net interest margin*

2001200220032003 (1-2)2004 (1-2)

*On average gross interest-bearing

BANKING PERFORMANCEINDICATORS (%)

173

113

45

15

224

134

44 46

228

143

3749

0

50

100

150

200

250

Gross income Operating costs Net provisions Profit

200120022003

DISTRIBUTION OF BANKS' GROSS INCOME: SIT

3521

212

36

21

411

2003 (1-2)2004 (1-2)

8. EXCHANGE RATE

The average euro exchange rate rose by 0.3 tolars in

February compared with January to stand at 237.5 tolars

per euro. Its monthly growth rate was slightly lower than in

January at an annualised 1.7%. Year-on-year growth dynamics

fell again in February by 0.1 percentage points to 2.6%.

The spot, forward and exchange office markets together

showed mild excess supply of foreign exchange in

February. This was worth SIT 0.6 billion on total transactions of

SIT 504.2 billion. Excess supply was largely determined by non-

residents, who supplied SIT 7.9 billion net of foreign currency.

Exchange offices recorded SIT 5.9 billion of net demand for

foreign currency, while enterprises had net demand for SIT 1.4

billion.

In February low levels of activity by non-residents on

both the spot and forward foreign exchange markets

were recorded. Of total trade of SIT 118 billion, non-residents



The Bank of Slovenia cut interest rates twice on particular

instruments in March. At the beginning of March it cut the

interest rate on 270-day central bank bills by 0.5 percentage

9. INTEREST RATES

sold SIT 50.5 billion net foreign currency on the spot foreign

exchange market and purchased SIT 42.6 billion net on the

forward market. Slightly higher activity by non-residents on

the spot foreign exchange market was noted in the first half of

March, when non-residents supplied SIT 37.6 billion net on total

transactions of SIT 146.2 billion.

Supply and demand of foreign exchange on the spot

market for enterprises were balanced in February. Total

trade was worth SIT 264 billion, up on January. On the forward

foreign exchange market enterprises had net demand of SIT 1.4

billion. Total trade by enterprises on the spot foreign exchange

market in the first half March was worth SIT 158.5 billion, with

net demand of SIT 3.5 billion.

Despite the Bank of Slovenia’s interest rate cut in mid-

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2001 2002 2003 2004

SPOT FOREIGN EXCHANGEMARKET (EUR millions)

Balance (net bank purchases)PurchasesSales

4

6

8

10

12

60-day tolar bills270-day tolar billsBank of Slovenia refinancing rate

m a m j j a s o n d j f m4

6

8

10

12

14

2001 2002 2003 2004

Tolar Indexation Clause

270-day tolar bills

Bank of Slovenia refinancing rate

60-day tolar bills

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

long-term (ave.)long-term (lowest)short-term (ave.)short-term (lowest)

BANK INTEREST RATES - LOANS(nominal)

2001 2002 2003 20043

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

2001 2002 2003 2004

31-day deposits91-day deposits181-day depositsdeposits over one year

BANK INTEREST RATES -DEPOSITS(nominal)

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

m a m j j a s o n d j f m

EURO EXCHANGE RATEON FOREIGN EXCHANGEMARKET annual % growth

one-month (30-day moving ave.)

one-year

points to 5.75% per annum. The second cut occurred in mid-

March, when the Bank cut the interest rate on 60-day and

again on 270-day central bank bills by 0.25 percentage points

EXCHANGE RATES: market rates (averages)FX market: EUR 226,5 233,9 236,6 237,1 237,5

USD 240,5 207,2 193,1 187,9 188,0Exchange offices: 226,6 234,0 236,7 237,1 237,5

Growth rates annual growt feb. feb.of market rates dec.02 dec.03 feb.04 jan. dec.EUR 3,8 2,8 2,6 0,1 0,4USD -8,9 -14,7 -12,5 0,0 -2,7Basket 1 ) 1,4 -0,8 -0,4 0,1 -0,1

1) Basket/effective exchange rate: basket of 7 currencies of Slovenia's mainforeign trade partners (excluding Croatia), weighted by shares in Sloveniangoods trade. From January 2002 onwars three currencies are taken into account(EUR, USD, CHF).Sources: BoS, Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia and various foreignsources.

2002 2003 dec. jan. feb.

March, the current year-on-year dynamics of the exchange rate

remain unchanged. The Bank of Slovenia is thereby additionally

closing uncovered interest parity, which is currently 1.25%.



to 5.25% and 5.5% per annum respectively. Interest rates on

other instruments are unchanged since the last rate cut at the

beginning of February.

Interest rates on the interbank market rose again in

February by 0.38 percentage points to an average of

5.71%. These peaked at the end of February at 6.10% but

otherwise fluctuated between 5.3% and 5.9%. Interest rates on

the interbank market remained high going into March.

The yield curve of the Slovenian interbank interest rate

(SITIBOR) fell at longer maturities in February compared

with January. At the shortest maturity it rose by 0.25 percentage

points while at longer maturities it fell by between 0.20 and 0.30

percentage points.

Auctions of 270-day tolar bills in February, as during

the entire recent period, were characterised by excess

demand. At auctions in February the quota was reduced to

SIT 2.4 billion, with the exception of the last auction, at which

the quota was SIT 3.0 billion. The average auction interest rate

fell again in February and was 5.0% at the last auction of the

month.

The interest rate on one-month treasury bills ranged between

5.36% and 5.51% in February and the first half of March. Demand

exceeded supply as in all recent months. The same applied to

auctions of three-month and six-month treasury bills. The average

auction interest rate in February rose by 0.36 percentage points

to 5.39% on three-month treasury bills and by 0.16 percentage

points to 5.28% on six-month treasury bills.

Bank interest rates fell again in February. On the assets

side the fall was largest on short-term corporate loans, while

on the liabilities side the largest fall was on interest rates on

shorter-term deposits. On the liabilities side interest rates on

the tolar indexation clause for time deposits up to one year fell

by 0.5 percentage points. In nominal terms the reduction was

smaller at an annual level because of a 0.3 percentage point

increase in the rate of the tolar indexation clause (due to the

later announcement of January inflation and the smaller number

of days in February). Interest rates on the tolar indexation clause

for time deposits of more than one year were unchanged from

January, or 0.3 percentage points higher in nominal terms. On

the assets side, the interest rate on the tolar indexation clause for

short-term loans to corporations fell by 0.7 percentage points to

4.1%, while the interest rate on long-term loans to corporations

was unchanged. The interest rate on the tolar indexation clause

for consumer loans was down by 0.5 percentage points, while

the interest rate on the tolar indexation clause for house building

loans was down by 0.1 percentage points in February to 3.8%.

Compared to the level of interest rates in the euro area, the

differential in January was largest (5.8 percentage points) for

short-term loans to corporations and smallest (1.9 percentage

points) for consumer loans.

End of period 2004% per annum 2001 2002 2003 feb.Bank of Slovenia interest ratesRefinancing rate 7,75 7,33 5,00 4,50SWAP 4,50 4,50 3,00 2,5060-day tolar bills 8,00 8,25 6,00 5,50270-day tolar bills 10,47 9,92 6,75 6,25Interbank interest ratesInterbank market 4,74 4,73 4,69 5,71TB (1 mths) 7,20 8,20 5,44 5,51TB (3 mths) 8,54 8,73 5,11 5,39TB (6 mths) 8,78 8,75 ... 5,28TB (12 mths) 11,20 9,00 5,10 5.20*Foreign interest ratesECB refinancing rate 3,25 2,75 2,00 2,00Euribor 3 mths 3,34 2,94 2,15 2,07Euribor 1 year 3,31 2,87 2,38 2,1610-yt govt. bonds EU(12)* 4,96 4,41 4,36 4,16IndicatorsTolar indexation clause 7,30 7,30 4,81 5,17Foreign currency clause 3,81 3,22 2,37 1,72*EU 12 average

Bank interest rates 2002 2003(% per annum) dec. dec. jan. feb.Deposits (Slovenia)more than 1 month 7,60 4,80 4,80 4,70

3 months 8,00 4,80 4,80 4,706 months 8,60 4,90 4,80 4,701 year 10,41 5,65 5,67

march, 2004 vol. 13 no. 3march, 2004 vol. 13 no. 3 bank of slovenia 2 monthly bulletin, march 2004...

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