march 2008 for personal use only - asx · – high quality plantation asset • 46,000 ha freehold...
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Gunns Limited
ANALYST BRIEFING NOTES
Six months ended 31 December 2007
Bell Bay Pulp Mill Project Update
March 2008
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HEADLINES
DEC 07 DEC 06
Revenue $378.3m $293.4m
EBIT $ 54.0m $47.0m
Profit After Tax $ 14.9m $20.5m
Cash Flow from Operations $ 55.6m $(3.0)m
EPS 3.4 cents 4.9 cents
Dividend per Share 6 cents 6 cents
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REVENUE
Revenue $378.3m (Dec06 half: $293.4m)
Forest product revenue at $303m– Woodchip volume up 5% on prior year first half– Auspine revenue recognised of $79m
MIS plantation development services revenue of $14m compared to $20m in the first half of 2007
Merchandising revenue consistent with the 2006 first half
Construction revenue down by up by 20%
Tamar Ridge Wines revenue up by 21%
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EARNINGS
Non-operating expense of $8.4m from hedge revaluation
FOREST PRODUCTS– Earnings at $48.5m (p.y.c.p $32.7m)– Earnings uplift from Auspine acquisition– Hardwood woodchip margin impacted by seasonal log cost increases– Hardwood timber selling price under pressure– Improving softwood timber margins
MERCHANDISING, CONSTRUCTION, WINE– Earnings up 13% on prior year comparative period
MANAGED INVESTMENTS– Plantation development reduced with lower FY 2007 deferred revenueF
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BALANCE SHEET
IMPACT OF AUSPINE ACQUISITION
– Inventory $38m
– Receivables $41m
– Standing Timber $225m
– PPE $294m
– Payables $88m
– Borrowings $372m
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OUTLOOK
FOREST PRODUCTS– Hardwood timber
• Domestic market remains weak• Export volumes maintained in face of high $A
– Softwood• Solid demand for sawn product and woodchip• Margin improvement from price increases over H1
– Woodchips• 2008 benchmark hardwood price set at $207.40 BDMT• Increasing demand from China mills• Softwood price up to $US170 BDU from 1 January 2008• Global supply changes are impacting the market
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OUTLOOK
MERCHANDISING, CONSTRUCTION, WINE– Expect full year revenue growth
• Redevelopment of Launceston merchandising store completed in July 2008
– Tamar Ridge wine sales up 30% on year to date• Harvest from MIS plantings commenced in FY2008• Targeted 100,000 case sales in FY 2009
MANAGED INVESTMENT SCHEMES– Development targets for 2008 financial year
• 15,000 hectares of plantation• 30 hectares of vineyard• 550 hectares of walnut
– FY 2008 Projects in the market
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AUSPINE ACQUISITION
Initial 26% holding from May 2007Acquisition completed 21 February 2008– Equity cost $345m– Enterprise value ~$500mStrategic value in Gunns group– High quality plantation asset
• 46,000 ha freehold land• 40,000 ha softwood plantation
– Diversification of resource base• Green Triangle location• Softwood
– Access to high growth softwood timber market
Synergy benefits– Timber distribution– Plantation management
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BELL BAY PULP MILL PROJECT UPDATE
Agenda
Overview of pulp mill project
Pulp market and sales overview
Project structure and contracts
Financial returns and risk mitigation
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1. OVERVIEW OF PULP MILL PROJECT
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Located in the Bell Bay Industrial Zone, Tasmania
1.1 million tonnes of Bleached Hardwood (Eucalypt) Market Pulp
Proven production technology
Environmental controls are Best Available Technology
Total project cost approximately A$2.0 billion
Experienced project development partners
1. OVERVIEW OF PULP MILL PROJECT Project outline
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Leveraging a high quality, efficient and world scale sustainable resource
Value adding to existing operations
Forward integration into value chain to secure margin
Globally competitive cost position from mill located at forest resource
Close proximity to high growth pulp markets (China and India)
1. OVERVIEW OF PULP MILL PROJECT Why is this a good project for Gunns?
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1. OVERVIEW OF PULP MILL PROJECT Mill Location
1 . Wood Processing Plant
2 . Sewage Treatment Plant
3 . Manganese Alloy Smelter
4. Wood Chip Mills
5. Major Port Facility
6. Aluminum Smelter
7. Metal Manufacturer
8. Electricity Sub Station
9. Electricity Exchange
1 0 . Thermal Power Station
11. Wood Chip Mills
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1. OVERVIEW OF PULP MILL PROJECT Mill Location
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1. OVERVIEW OF PULP MILL PROJECT Current project status
Startup3Q10
Inception
January 04Feasibility study
commenced
February 05Bell Bay location
selected
July 06Completion of
Integrated Impact Assessment
John Holland / Macmahon alliance partners selected
August/October 07Approvals from
State and Commonwealth
2Q08Commencement
of civil works
4Q08Start of equipment
deliveries
4Q08Completion of
bulk earthworks
1Q09Commencement of
erection worksNow
1Q10Mill
commissioning
Calendar year
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2. PULP MARKET AND SALES OVERVIEW
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2. PULP MARKET AND SALES OVERVIEW Market growth
Consumption of Bleached Hardwood Market Kraft Pulp (BHKP)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Million tons
Rest of Asia
North America
Western Europe
JapanEastern Europe
China
Latin America
ForecastRest of the World
Source: World Trade Atlas; Pöyry
Continued growth in demand for hardwood market pulp globally with rapid Chinese growth continuing to be met by imports
Chinese Imports of Pulp
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0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Barra do Riacho Unit
Riaupulp
Mucuri Mill
Bell Bay
Belo Oriente
Jacarei
Santa Fe Mill
Fray Bentos
Eunapolis
Athabasca
Capacity 1 ,000t/ a
At 1.1M ADT Gunns will be in the top 10 market pulp producers in the world and the pulp mill will be in the top 5 largest pulp mills in the world
2. PULP MARKET AND SALES OVERVIEW Market position
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
RGM/APRIL
Aracruz
Votorantim
Suzano
APP/Sinar Mas
Botnia
Cenibra
ENCE
Gunns
CMPC
Capacity 1000t/ a
Current Capacity Approved Expansion Capacity
Top 10 BHKP Global Producers Top 10 BHKP Global Pulp Mills
Source: Pöyry
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2. PULP MARKET AND SALES OVERVIEW Cost competitiveness of the pulp mill
Bell Bay will have a highly competitive position on the global cost curve, driven by proximity of mill to fibre, mill to shipping and advantageous proximity to Asian export markets against North and South American competitors
Source: Pöyry
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3. PROJECT STRUCTURE AND CONTRACTS
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3. PROJECT STRUCTURE AND CONTRACTS Pulp mill structure
Proven world scale mill technology– 1.1 m ADT capacity (significantly expanded from initial concept and cost estimate)– 216 MW power generation (ave. 100MW surplus power)– ECF bleaching process– Leading edge environmental controls (odour control, air and water emissions)
Recent comparable installations – Veracel (Brazil), Botnia (Uruguay), Santa Fe (Chile), Nueva Aldea (Chile)Comparable mills have been commissioned on time with effective ramp ups to capacity
Wood Handling Fibre Line Pulp Dryer
Evaporation and Recovery
Power Boiler Turbine Effluent Treatment Raw Water
Energy Island Water Treatment
Pulp Production
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3. PROJECT STRUCTURE AND CONTRACTS Project structure
Fully developed contracts for core equipment, civil engineering and constructionDetailed costings and scope of workProject cost includes 5% contingency
Gunns Limited
Gunns Bell Bay Pulp Mill ProjectA$2,000million
Civil Engineering & Construction
John Holland/MacMahonA$700m
Equipment Supply & Erection
Andritz & selected suppliersA$1130m
Other Equipment & Gunns’ Costs
Other SuppliersA$170m
Owner’s Engineers
Pöyry
Project A
lliance
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Gunns project team
Pöyry1 as Owner’s Engineer – overseeing project implementation
John Holland / MacMahon civil engineering and construction alliance– Risk sharing arrangements – cost savings/overruns
Core equipment supply by Andritz2
Erection management contract with Andritz
Mill commissioning and technical support from Andritz
Production guarantees from Andritz
3. PROJECT STRUCTURE AND CONTRACTS Project management and control
1. Pöyry is the world’s leading consulting and engineering company for the forest products industry. It is publicly listed on the Helsinki OMX exchange and has a market capitalisation in excess of €900million (13/03/08)
2. Andritz is a global market leader in the supply of customised plants, systems, and services for the pulp and paper industry. It is a publicly listed company on the Vienna stock exchange and has assets of €2.5billion (31/12/07) and a market capitalisation in excess of €1.7billion (13/03/08)F
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3.7 - 4.0m GMT fibre requirement
Majority and increasing supply from Gunns managed resource
20 year wood supply agreement with Forestry Tasmania for plantation and regrowth wood
Mill will only use plantation and regrowth fibre - No old growth fibre will be used in the pulp mill
No changes to forest management or regulation required to supply the mill
3. PROJECT STRUCTURE AND CONTRACTS Wood supply agreements
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Project has received state and federal government approval following stringent environmental analysis and extensive public input and consultation.
Pulp mill technology represents ‘world’s best practice’
Monitoring and controlling of mill operations to follow strict standards and procedures
Pulp mill project is Equator Principle compliant
Federal approval was reviewed by Australia’s Chief Scientist and an advisory panel:
“operating in compliance with the stringent conditions applied there is a very strong possibility that the pulp mill will operate with an environmentally neutral footprint”
3. PROJECT STRUCTURE AND CONTRACTS Environmental
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Mill is well located for delivery to key high growth Asian markets
Eucalyptus kraft pulp is in high demand in growing product segments
Pulp output to be certified under internationally recognised PEFC system
Cornerstone distribution agreements for key markets– Asia (excl. Japan)– Japan– Europe and Middle East
Targeted volume commitment for 100% of production
3. PROJECT STRUCTURE AND CONTRACTS Marketing
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4. FINANCIAL RETURNS AND RISK MITIGATION
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4. FINANCIAL RETURNS AND RISK MITIGATION Revenue1,2
Revenue (A$m)
Sales Volume (ADT) 1,000
AUD/t 830
Gross Sales Revenue 830
Freight & Sales Commission 70
Net Sales Revenue 760
1. Based on current market pulp price and exchange rates2. Assumes pulp mill operating at ~90% of nameplate capacity of 1.1Mt
Historical Price of BHKP ($AUD Nominal)
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4. FINANCIAL RETURNS AND RISK MITIGATION Profit and loss1,2
Profit & Loss (A$m)
Pulp Sales Revenue 760
Variable Costs3 (fibre, energy, water, chemicals) 250
Fixed Costs (labour, maintenance) 80
Total Costs 330
EBITDA 43052
Depreciation 60
EBIT 370
1. Based on current market pulp price and exchange rates2. Assumes pulp mill operating at ~90% of nameplate capacity of 1.1Mt3. Variable costs include a credit for the sale of surplus power and Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs)
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4. FINANCIAL RETURNS AND RISK MITIGATION Funding Structure
Final terms are currently being negotiated on the project financing structure for the pulp mill– Non-recourse funding package – Banks demonstrating support for the project– Financing arrangements will be outlined when finalised
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4. FINANCIAL RETURNS AND RISK MITIGATION Risks
Risk MitigantWood supply Substantial and expanding Company controlled resource
Tasmanian plantations are highly productiveLong term supply contractsSoftwood processing capacity
Construction (investment cost and timing)
Strong experienced development partnersSignificant up front design and engineering completedCivil engineering allianceSingle core equipment supplier under fixed price contractStrong mill performance guaranteesCosting incorporates risk/gain sharing and contingenciesProject management cost budget of $200m
Operations Andritz to provide 12 months operational support during commissioning and ramp-upComprehensive environmental management systems
Market Target of 100% (currently 60%) volume commitments with internationally recognised counterparties
Pulp price Strong fundamental demand outlookFor
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4. FINANCIAL RETURNS AND RISK MITIGATION Project Management
Gunns project team has been staffed by up to 40 members dedicated to the design and approval process since January 2004
The team’s work has been supported by the international resources of Poyry Forest Industry, the engineering expertise of the John Holland/MacMahon alliance and a range of environmental and engineering experts
Les Baker
Project Manager
Sven Lundgren
Procurement Manager
Richard Fawkes
Environmental Manager
Calton Frame
Resource Manager
Greg Stanford
Infrastructure ManagerF
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SUMMARY
Mill is a significant value creation opportunity for Gunns
Gunns controls a high quality, low cost wood resource
Limited global opportunities to develop world scale mills
Pulp production diversifies Gunns’ market base into growth regional and product segments
Pulp production generates superior margins
Mill represents the best available environmental management technology
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