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March 2012 March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed without the expressed consent of Baseball Info Solutions. © 2012 Baseball Info Solutions Does the Ted Williams Shift Work?

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Page 1: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

March 2012March 2012

All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed without the expressed consent of Baseball Info Solutions.

© 2012 Baseball Info Solutions

Does the Ted Williams Shift Work?

Page 2: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Tampa Bay Rays

Best Defensive Team of 2011

Team Defensive Runs Saved

Tampa Bay Rays 85

Arizona Diamondbacks 54

San Diego Padres 46

Cincinnati Reds 44

Colorado Rockies 34

Page 3: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Top Shifting Teams

Rays also most aggressive with shifts

Team Shifts

Tampa Bay Rays 216

Milwaukee Brewers 170

Cleveland Indians 148

Toronto Blue Jays 117

Three Teams Tied 75

Page 4: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Rays Shifts

Against top 10 shifted hitters110 Shifts•66 Ted Williams Shifts

Against other hitters106 shifts

Page 5: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Is it a coincidence?

Page 6: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Brewers Infield- 2011

Prince Fielder -17 Runs Saved in 2010 (35th of 35 1B)

Rickie Weeks-16 Runs Saved in 2010 (34th of 35 2B)

Yuniesky Betancourt-27 Runs Saved in 2010 (35th of 35 SS)

Casey McGehee-14 Runs Saved in 2010 (T-31st of 35 3B)

Page 7: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Ron Roenicke & The Shift

Against top 10 shifted hitters45 Shifts•25 Ted Williams Shifts

Against other hitters125 shifts

Only 22 shifts in all of 2010, least in MLB

Page 8: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Brewers' Improvement

Four infielders improved 56 runs

Player 2010 Runs Saved 2011 Runs Saved

Prince Fielder -17 -9

Rickie Weeks -16 -5

Yuniesky Betancourt -27 -7

Casey McGehee -14 3

Total -74 -18

Page 9: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Is it a coincidence?

Page 10: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Origin of the Ted Williams Shift

Page 11: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

All Shifts vs. “The Shift”

• The Ted Williams Shift

• Other Shifts

Page 12: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Top Ten Shifted HittersHitter All Shifts (2010-11)

David Ortiz 486

Ryan Howard 461

Carlos Pena 314

Adam Dunn 305

Prince Fielder 253

Jim Thome 223

Adrian Gonzalez 205

Mark Teixeira 180

Brian McCann 118

Jack Cust 115

Page 13: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Pena and McCann vs. The Shift

Hitter Ted Williams Shift On

No Ted Williams Shift

Shift Bunt Hits

Carlos Pena .243 .191 11

Brian McCann .321 .250 4

Weighted Average .266 .208

Batting Average On Grounders, Short Liners & Bunts

Page 14: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Remaining Eight Hitters

Ted Williams Shift On

No Ted Williams Shift Difference

Weighted Average .194 .245 51 points

Batting Average On Grounders, Short Liners & Bunts

Page 15: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Bases Empty/Runners On

Ted Williams Shift On

No Ted Williams Shift Difference

Bases Empty .194 .232 38 points

Runners On .208 .251 43 points

Batting Average On Grounders, Short Liners & Bunts

Page 16: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Ryan Howard in BIS-DLast 120 grounders and short liners

Shift Candidate (89% right of 2B)

0 bunt attempts in last 464 plate appearances

Page 17: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Alex Gordon in BIS-DLast 120 grounders and short liners

Shift Candidate (84% right of 2B)

0 bunt attempts in last 415 plate appearances

Page 18: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Dan Uggla in BIS-DLast 120 grounders and short liners

Shift Candidate (91% left of 2B)

0 bunt attempts in last 314 plate appearances

Page 19: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

The Shift

48 LHB recommended for the shift by BIS-D

56 RHB recommended for the shift by BIS-D (including 16 who pull over 90 percent of grounders and short liners)

MLB Teams Should Shift More Often

Page 20: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Beyond Ted Williams

Less dramatic positioning for every hitter

Page 21: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Beyond Ted Williams

• Consider Pitch Type, Count, and Pitch Location

• Are there situations where average hitters exhibit extreme groundball pull tendencies?

• Are there situations where heavy pull hitters should NOT be shifted?

Page 22: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Pull Pct By Pitch Type

Average RHB pulls under 68% of cutters and 72% of fastballs

Pulls over 83% of curves, splitters, and changeups

Page 23: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Pull Pct By Count

Average RHB pulls 58% of GB in 0-2 counts vs. RHP

Pulls over 80% when ahead 3-0 or 3-1

Page 24: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Pull Pct By Pitch Location

Page 25: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Pull Pct By Pitch Location

Page 26: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Shift Candidates

Page 27: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Shift Candidates

Page 28: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

Conclusions

Average hitter pulls off-speed pitches, ahead in the count, and/or down and in

LHB Shift Candidates pull almost everything except when behind in the count 0-2 and 1-2

Page 29: March 2012 All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed

March 2012March 2012

All data and design concepts property of Baseball Info Solutions. No part of this material or the accompanying data may be reproduced or distributed without the expressed consent of Baseball Info Solutions.

© 2012 Baseball Info Solutions

Does the Ted Williams Shift Work?


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