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866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737) March 3, 2018 Gulfstream Park

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Page 1: March 3, 2018 Gulfstream Park...Analysis: We’ve compiled a dozen of the sport’s best and brightest handicappers in an effort to pinpoint the best way to bet the Xpressbet Fountain

866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737)

March 3, 2018Gulfstream Park

Page 2: March 3, 2018 Gulfstream Park...Analysis: We’ve compiled a dozen of the sport’s best and brightest handicappers in an effort to pinpoint the best way to bet the Xpressbet Fountain

Meet the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth ContendersBy Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com

Millie Ball, XBTV.com - @camillayakteen

Good Magic: It’s time for last year’s Two-Year-Old Champion, Good Magic, to start getting

serious about the Kentucky Derby. Following his victory in last November’s Breeders’ Cup

Juvenile, Good Magic was given seven weeks of R&R in Ocala before getting back to the

worktab in late January. And while his 119-day layoff may not be viewed as an ideal way of

coming into this race, he has a pair of champions in his corner – trainer Chad Brown and

jockey Jose Ortiz were recognized as the best at their craft at this year’s Eclipse Awards.

Free Drop Billy: One of two Grade 1 winners in the field (the other being Good

Magic), Free Drop Billy enters the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth off a solid runner-up

performance in Gulfstream’s Grade 2 Holy Bull on February 3. Despite being beaten

5 ½-lengths, Free Drop Billy showed a new dimension in the Holy Bull, sitting closer

to the pace than ever before. The new tactics paid off, as he finished nearly 8-lengths

clear of the third-place finisher. His sire, Union Rags, won the 2012 edition of this race.

Strike Power: Can immense talent overcome inexperience? We’ll find out Saturday. The

knocks against Strike Power are obvious. He’s only run twice and Saturday will be the first

time he races around two turns or beyond 7-furlongs. On raw talent alone, though, he’s as

good as it gets. He won the Grade 3 Swale on February 3 with ease and Gulfstream’s top

rider, Luis Saez, bypassed the opportunity to ride Free Drop Billy in this race to stick with

Strike Power.

Marconi: As a yearling, Marconi sold at auction for $2 million. And, as you can imagine, such

a large sales price is a lot of hype to live up to. The jury is still out on Marconi. He broke

his maiden by 5 ½-lengths at Aqueduct in December and was a decent third, beaten just 2

½-lengths, in the Grade 3 Withers on February 3. He continues to improve and may find the

South Florida weather to his liking. A win would give trainer Todd Pletcher a record fourth

Xpressbet Fountain of Youth victory.

Machismo: One of the most visually impressive winners of the Gulfstream Championship Meet,

Machismo broke his maiden by 11 ½-lengths on February 3. Such a large win margin is enough

to pique any horseplayer’s interest, and the way he did it was visually impressive. This is a gigantic

step in class, but with More Than Ready and Smart Strike in his immediate pedigree, he should be

able to handle today’s extra distance. .

Page 3: March 3, 2018 Gulfstream Park...Analysis: We’ve compiled a dozen of the sport’s best and brightest handicappers in an effort to pinpoint the best way to bet the Xpressbet Fountain

Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Expert Picks

Jason Blewitt

Gulfstream Park

@jasonblewitt30

Good Magic

Free Drop Billy

He Takes Charge

Strike Power

Alfredo Alfonzo

Gulfstream Park

@videohipico

Good Magic

Marconi

Promises Fulfilled

Storm Runner

Millie Ball

XBTV

@camillayakteen

Good Magic

He Takes Charge

Machismo

Free Drop Billy

Zoe Cadman

XBTV

@zoecadman

Good Magic

Machismo

Free Drop Billy

He Takes Charge

Megan Devine

Santa Anita Park

@missmegandevine

Good Magic

Free Drop Billy

Strike Power

He Takes Charge

Jeremy Plonk

Xpressbet

@HorsePlayerNow

Free Drop Billy

Good Magic

Marconi

Storm Runner

Johnny D

Xpressbet

@XBJohnnyD

Good Magic

Free Drop Billy

Gotta Go

Marconi

Dustin Fabian

Xpressbet

@Xpressbet

Free Drop Billy

Good Magic

Strike Power

Marconi

Jeff Siegel

XBTV

@jsiegelracing

Good Magic

Strike Power

Free Drop Billy

Machismo

Aaron Vercruysse

XBTV

@LongshotAaronV

Good Magic

Marconi

Gotta Go

Free Drop Billy

Stan Salter

Maryland Jockey Club

@MDHorseRadio

Good Magic

He Takes Charge

Free Drop Billly

Strike Power

Anthony Stabile

Xpressbet Radio on HRRN

@TheBigAStabile

Strike Power

Good Magic

Marconi

Free Drop Billy

Page 4: March 3, 2018 Gulfstream Park...Analysis: We’ve compiled a dozen of the sport’s best and brightest handicappers in an effort to pinpoint the best way to bet the Xpressbet Fountain

866.88XPRESS(866.889.7737)

Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, AZ, IA, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with Xpressbet, LLC and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700.

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Jockey

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3.10.18

3.10.18

3.10.18

3.17.18

3.17.18

Prep

Fountain of Youth

Gotham

San Felipe

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Rebel

Track

Gulfstream

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Page 5: March 3, 2018 Gulfstream Park...Analysis: We’ve compiled a dozen of the sport’s best and brightest handicappers in an effort to pinpoint the best way to bet the Xpressbet Fountain

All-Time Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Record – Today’s Trainers

Post

123456789

10

Trainer

Mark Casse

Dale Romans

Reade Baker

Mark Hennig

Dale Romans

Chad Brown

Ian Wilkes

Todd Pletcher

Anthony Quartarolo

Dale Romans

Horse

He Takes Charge

Free Drop Billy

Peppered

Strike Power

Storm Runner

Good Magic

Gotta Go

Marconi

Machismo

Promises Fulfilled

Starts

1

7

1

1

7

1

3

14

-

7

Win

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

-

0

Place

0

1

0

0

1

1

0

3

-

1

Show

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

-

0

Win ROI

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$2.60

-

$2.60

AVG Odds

20.30/1

40.56/1

4.10/1

29.50/1

40.56/1

3.40/1

14.47/1

7.64/1

-

40.56/1

Fountain of YouthStats and Trends

All-Time Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Record – Today’s Jockeys

Post

123456789

10

Jockey

Tyler Gaffalione

Robby Albarado

Nik Juarez

Luis Saez

Joel Rosario

Jose Ortiz

Chris Landeros

Javier Castellano

Albin Jimenez

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Horse

He Takes Charge

Free Drop Billy

Peppered

Strike Power

Storm Runner

Good Magic

Gotta Go

Marconi

Machismo

Promises Fulfilled

Starts

-

-

-

4

4

2

-

7

-

2

Win

-

-

-

2

0

0

-

1

-

0

Place

-

-

-

0

0

2

-

2

-

0

Show

-

-

-

1

2

0

-

1

-

0

Win ROI

-

-

-

$5.95

$0.00

$0.00

-

$1.49

-

$0.00

AVG Odds

-

-

-

5.93/1

4.65/1

2.15/1

-

8.74/1

-

5.65/1

87

28 28 28 28 27 27 25 24 19 12 6 3

1 2 3 4 5 6 9 10 11 12

Winning Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Post PositionsSince 1991

Post

Starters

Winners 5 2 2 5 1 7 1 3 2 0 0 0

Page 6: March 3, 2018 Gulfstream Park...Analysis: We’ve compiled a dozen of the sport’s best and brightest handicappers in an effort to pinpoint the best way to bet the Xpressbet Fountain

Xpressbet Fountain of Youth$400,000 - Grade 2 Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares 1 1/2 Miles Turf

Our Picks

1. GOOD MAGIC 2. FREE DROP BILLY

3. MARCONI4. STRIKE POWER

Rekindling the ‘Magic’ Analysis: We’ve compiled a dozen of the sport’s best and brightest handicappers in an

effort to pinpoint the best way to bet the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes. And despite

different approaches, backgrounds and techniques, the majority of our team landed on GOOD

MAGIC as their Xpressbet Fountain of Youth pick. But how can you make money betting such

a low-priced favorite? It’s all about picking the right horses underneath. Let’s take a look.

Main Contenders: As expected, GOOD MAGIC was selected as the ‘top pick’ by nine of

our handicappers, meaning Team Xpressbet thinks it’ll be a major upset if anyone else hits

the wire first. Despite being off the last four months, last year’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

winner seems poised to pick up where he left off in November. He’s been working well,

drew perfectly and should get a cozy stalking trip from just behind the speed. Two of our

handicappers opted for FREE DROP BILLY. Maybe they saw some stats in the right pane

that don’t necessarily favor GOOD MAGIC? ‘BILLY ran a solid race in the G2 Holy Bull

on February 3 and won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last October. He should

benefit from an inside draw and expected fast pace. Unfortunately for him, top Gulfstream

rider, Luis Saez, opted to ride STRIKE POWER instead. STRIKE POWER is 2-for-2 and

won the G3 Swale last out. This will be his first try around two-turns, which will test the

limits of this speedy son of Speightstown. Stamina won’t be an issue for Todd Pletcher’s

MARCONI. In fact, he’s never run in a race this short. His issue is speed and he’ll simply

need to run much faster than ever before if he’s going to spring an upset.

Value Plays: Recent-maiden breaker, HE TAKES CHARGE, caught the eye of several of our

handicappers. He broke his maiden impressively here on February 10 and he comes from a

strong family. His dam, Elarose, is a half sister to Grade 1 winners Will Take Charge and Take

Charge Indy. He figures to get a fast pace to close into and at 20/1 on the morning line, he’s

the type of horse that deserves to be part of your Trifecta, Superfecta or Super Hi-5.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $5 Trifecta Key: GOOD MAGIC over FREE DROP BILLY, MARCONI, HE TAKES

CHARGE, STRIKE POWER ($60)

• $30 Exacta: GOOD MAGIC over FREE DROP BILLY ($30)

• $10 Exacta: FREE DROP BILLY over GOOD MAGIC ($10)

Stats & Trends

Last 5 Fountain of Youth Winners:Year Horse Jockey2017 Gunnevera J. Castellano 2016 Mohaymen J. Alvarado2015 Itsaknockout* L. Saez2014 Wildcat Red L. Saez2013 Orb J. Velazquez

*Via Disqualification

Fountain of Youth Snapshot:(Since 1991)Stakes Record (8.5F): 1:41.00 (Sensitive Prince, 1978) Largest Win Margin (8.5F): 8 1/2 (Eskendereya, 2010 & Spectacular Bid, 1979) Winning Favorites: 11 (39%) Wire-to-Wire Winners: 7 (25%)Average Win Odds: 9.00/1 Average Exacta ($2): $91.92Average Trifecta ($1): $271.91

Know ThisDon’t Crown Him Yet : Betting against Good Magic? Recent history is on your side. Sub-even money favorites are just 1-for-5 in the Fountain of Youth since 2007, with Violence (0.60/1) and Nobiz Like Showbiz (0.60/1) among those defeated at short odds.

No ‘Need for Speed:’ Despite a reputation of being a ‘speed favoring’ track, the last three editions of the Fountain of Youth were won from off the pace. Last year’s winner, Gunnevera, closed from last, as many as 13-lengths off the pace.

Home Field Advantage: Since 1996, 18-of-22 Fountain of Youth winners had previously raced that year at Gulfstream Park. Additionally, just 3-of-22 winners were making their seasonal debut in the race.

?

Race 14 (Post Time: 6:09PM ET) 3YO, 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

Page 7: March 3, 2018 Gulfstream Park...Analysis: We’ve compiled a dozen of the sport’s best and brightest handicappers in an effort to pinpoint the best way to bet the Xpressbet Fountain

Ticket Time!Recommended Picks for the Day’s Biggest Bets

$750,000 Guaranteed Late Pick 4One of horse racing’s most popular bets has a $750,000 guarantee on Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Day! Bet it with

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Race 11: 1, 6, 11

Race 12: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10

Race 13: 1, 4, 7, 8, 12

Race 14: 2, 6

Total Ticket Cost ($.50 Base): $75.00

$3 Million Guaranteed Rainbow 6 A guaranteed pool of $3,000,000 is in play for Saturday’s Rainbow 6, so long as the bet goes unclaimed Thursday and

Friday. With a guaranteed pool that big, how can you pass it up?

Race 9: 5, 11

Race 10: 1, 4, 5, 7

Race 11: 1, 6

Race 12: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10

Race 13: 1, 4, 7, 8, 12

Race 14: 6

Total Ticket Cost ($.20 Base): $80.00