march 4, 2008 interdepartmental hurricane conference, charleston, sc dr. scott a. braun trmm project...

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March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1) Laboratory for Atmospheres NASA/GSFC Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Charleston, SC March 4, 2008

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Page 1: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

Dr. Scott A. BraunTRMM Project Scientist

Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)Laboratory for Atmospheres

NASA/GSFC

Interdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceCharleston, SCMarch 4, 2008

Page 2: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

NASA Hurricane Research Focus Areas

Satellite remote sensing

Field campaigns Numerical modeling

Sensor development

Page 3: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

Satellite Observations of Hurricanes

TRMM QuikscatAqua

CALIPSO/CloudSat

AuraGPM

JASON

Page 4: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

NASA Field Programs

Program Manager: Ramesh KakarField programs coordinated with NOAA/Hurricane Research Division

1998 2001 2005

2006

NASA DC-8

NASA ER-2

Page 5: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

GEOS5 & Katrina: The benefits of improved horizontal resolution

1 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution

0.25 degree resolution

Precipitation Rate

0.25 degree resolution

1 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution

Verifying Analysis from NOAA/NCEP

Sea Level Pressure

Improving the simulation of hurricanes on a global scale to understand the impacts of interannual variability and climate change on hurricanes

M. Rienecker et al.

NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) Program Applied to Tropical Systems

Page 6: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

NASA Contributions to Research Priorities

SatellitesField exs.Priority research

Page 7: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

Hot Towers in the Eyewall

Movie produced by Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio

• Tower formation, movement related to eyewall mesovortices (Braun et al., 2006)

• Mesovortices mix high energy air from eye into eyewall (Cram et al. 2007)

Page 8: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

Does the Saharan Air Layer Have a Negative Influence?

Some storms are surrounded by Saharan air and yet intensify to Category 4 or 5 intensity.

Image: Hurricane Fabian (2003) surrounded by dry, dusty air. Data from TRMM, MODIS, and AIRS.

Dust 24-h Accumulated Rain 24-h Accumulated RainRelative Humidity

Page 9: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

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Special JAS Issue

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

VOLUME 63 NUMBER 1January 2006

Is a special CAMEX issue containing 21 papers

Preparations underway for TCSP/NAMMA special issue

Page 10: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

NASA Contributions to Research Priorities

SatellitesField Exs.MAPPriority research

Page 11: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

Hurricane Simulations Using Global Models

• Models used: GEOS5

• Allows simulation of global processes

• Used to study– Weather prediction

– Large-scale control

– Impacts of El Nino/La Nina

– Impact of climate change

GEOS4 simulation of Hurricane Ivan (2004)

Page 12: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

High-Resolution Modeling

• Models used: MM5 and WRF (Weather Research and Forecast Model)

• Allow simulation of fine-scale features of hurricanes

• Used to study

– Hurricane genesis

– The role of hot towers

– The impacts of vertical wind shear and the Saharan Air Layer

Tropical Storm Gert (2005)

Page 13: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

NASA Contributions to Research Priorities

SatellitesField Exs.MAPPriority research

Page 14: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

TRMM Tracks Changes In Rainfall Structure and Accumulation

• Combined with other satellites, the TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (3B42) helps map rainfall evolution in hurricanes.

Available from http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Saffir/SimpsonCategory

54321TS

Hurricane Intensity

Surface Wind(km/h) (mph)248

20918015111861

156130112947438

9/08/04

9/12/04

9/14/04

9/15/04

9/16/04

• By itself, TRMM provides detailed views of hurricane structure and structure change (example here is Hurricane Isabel in 2003).

Hurricane Isabel accumulated rainfall

Vertical structure from PR

Page 15: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

TRMM Measures Heavy Rainfall from Hurricane Noel

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov

Images by Hal Pierce, NASA/GSFC

• TRMM Multi-satellite precipitation analysis measures >400 mm of rain over D. R. and Haiti from Noel

• 81 deaths, several hundred thousand displaced

“Your images have been incredible--they are stunning and extremely useful. It was even presented to the minister of environment and head of disasters in the DR. Deeply appreciated. Please know we are crediting you everywhere.” – Daniel Irwin, MSFC, SERVIR Project Manager

Page 16: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

• Key CloudSat observations are vertical profiles of:

• cloud liquid water content• cloud ice water content• cloud physical & radiative properties

• Furnish data needed to improve model

predictions of clouds to increase understanding cloud-climate feedback

• Provide data needed to improve weather forecast models (CloudSat data already being assimilated into Navy’s operational weather forecast model)

Alt

itu

de

(km

)

MODIS12 µm Channel

CloudSat Radar Reflectivity (dBZ)

B

AA

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

Hurricane Ileana23 August 2006 2100 UTC

B20

0

Page 17: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

Instrument Development

• Wind lidar technologies

• Scanning Doppler radar (HIWRAP)

• Hurricane imaging radiometer (HIRAD)

• Geostationary microwave sounder (Geostar)

• NEXRAD in SpaceHurricane Eyewall

Snow/ice

RainCld-free

0 km

16 km

surface winds

3D horiz. windsin precip and cld

Ku & Ka BandKu & Ka Band

HIWRAP Concept

Page 18: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

Planning/Implementation Activities

• Airborne Integration Program (2007)– Test new technologies on aircraft– e.g., HIWRAP, Twilite

• Wind Lidar Science (2007)– Development and implementation of wind lidar

technologies

• ROSES 2008– NASA Research Announcement in February for

hurricane studies– Convene hurricane science team to guide

deployment for 2010 field campaign

Page 19: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

Page 20: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

ROSES 2008

Application of multiple NASA assets (satellite and field data) to hurricane research problems

Image: Hurricane Fabian (2003) surrounded by dry, dusty SAL air. Data from TRMM, MODIS, and AIRS.

Dust 24-h Accumulated Rain 24-h Accumulated RainRelative Humidity

Page 21: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

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Page 22: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

NASA Science Questions

• How is the Earth system changing?– How are global precipitation, evaporation, and water

cycling changing?

• What are the consequences of change for human civilization?– How are variations in weather, precipitation, and water

resources related to climate variation?

• How will the Earth system change in the future and how can we improve predictions through advances in remote sensing, data assimilation, and modeling? – How can weather forecast reliability be improved?

Page 23: March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC Dr. Scott A. Braun TRMM Project Scientist Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)

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Packing Heat in the Gulf

Altimetry combined with SST data and a two-layer model is used to calculate Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)TCHP is a measure of the oceanic heat content from the sea surface to the 26°C isotherm Both hurricanes rapidly intensified to category 5 as they passed over the Loop Current and a warm ring, then diminished to category 4 and category 3, respectively, by the time they traveled over cooler waters High values of TCHP may be linked to hurricane intensification.