march 4 primaries book - fox news...black voters in texas – p. 28 turnout indicators and...

March 4 Primaries Brainroom Briefing Book

Bryan S. Murphy Sr. Political Affairs Specialist Fox News Channel

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Table of Contents

Delegates Available on March 4 – p. 3

Vermont – p. 4

Democrats in Vermont – p. 5

Republicans in Vermont – p. 6

Profile of Vermont – p. 6

Past Primary Results from Vermont – p. 8

Ohio – p. 9

Republicans in Ohio – p. 10

Democrats in Ohio – p. 11

NAFTA – p. 12

Mortgage Crisis – p. 13

Economic Troubles in Ohio – p. 14

Profile of Ohio – p. 15

Past Primary Results from Ohio – p. 17

10th District Democratic Primary – Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (D-Ohio) – p. 18

Texas – p. 19

Democrats in Texas – p. 20

Democrats Spending Heavily in Texas – p. 21

Republicans in Texas – p. 21

Republican Cross-Over Voters – p. 22

Two Contests for the Democrats – p. 23

Profile of Texas – p. 25

Hispanic Voters in Texas – p. 25

Black Voters in Texas – p. 28

Turnout Indicators and Predictions – p. 31

Past Primary Results from Texas – p. 33

14th District Republican Primary – Rep. Ron Paul (R–Texas) – p. 34

Rhode Island – p. 35

Democrats in Rhode Island – p. 36

Republicans in Rhode Island – p. 36

Profile of Rhode Island– p. 37

Past Primary Results from Rhode Island– p. 38

Endnotes – p. 40

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Delegates Available on March 4 State Democratic Republican Ohio 141 85 Rhode Island 21 17 Texas 193 137 Vermont 15 17 Total 370 256

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VERMONT

Polls Open 7:00 AM (EST) – Polls Close 7:00 PM (EST)

State Type Who can participate Dem delegates GOP delegates

Vermont Open primary

There is no party registration in Vermont. Registered voters are eligible to participate in either primary.

15 in the primary

10 district level 5 statewide 8 super-delegates Total: 23

Pledged district level delegates are allocated according to the primary vote in each CD, with a 15% threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote, with a 15% threshold.

17 in the primary 17 statewide Total: 17 (GOP delegate total includes 3 pledged RNC delegates.)

Pledged delegates are winner-take-all by statewide vote.

Introduction Despite its late primary and relatively small number of delegates, Vermont could matter after all in who becomes the Democratic presidential nominee.1 The second-smallest state by population, Vermont will send fewer than two dozen delegates to each of the parties' nominating conventions. And its March 4 primary comes late in the game; many expected both major parties' nominations to be settled by then.2 Unlike recent presidential campaigns when the nomination has been decided by early March, the Vermont primary could play a role this year in choosing the Democratic nominee to run against McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee.3 Obama and McCain have big leads over their rivals in the few Vermont polls. Obama had the support of 57 percent of likely Democratic primary voters and Clinton had 33 percent, the most recent Rasmussen poll found. Among likely Republican primary voters, McCain led with 69 percent, while Huckabee had 17 percent and Ron Paul had 5 percent. The poll by the New Jersey-based firm of Rasmussen Reports was based on telephone interviews conducted Feb. 24 with 1,527 likely Vermont voters. Of those surveyed, 1,013 said they would vote in the Democratic primary and 514 in the GOP primary. Because of the larger number of respondents, Rasmussen's poll of likely Vermont Democratic primary voters had an error margin of three percentage points, while the Republican primary poll's error margin was 4.5 percentage points.4

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Obama and Clinton have paid staff in Vermont and have opened campaign offices. Both have also run television advertising. No Republican candidate, including McCain, has paid staff or offices in the state. Vermont Republicans are bracing for the likelihood that turnout in the state's March 4 presidential primary will tilt strongly toward the Democrats, but are confident that, come this fall, Republican McCain will do well here. "I expect you'll see a turnout for the Democrats that's three or four times as much as the Republicans in the primary," said former House Speaker Walter Freed of Dorset. "I wouldn't be surprised to see some Republicans participate in the Democratic primary." Freed and several other Vermont Republicans who have been involved in statewide politics over the years say a heavy Democratic turnout in March should not be seen as a predictor of how the state will vote in the fall. Jill Krowinski, executive director of the Vermont Democratic Party, said a potential record turnout in Vermont in the Democratic presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama raises the party's visibility with new voters. Krowinski said a huge turnout will also pay dividends for the party for months afterward by attracting motivated people drawn into politics by the excitement of the presidential race. All signs point to large turnout by independent voters in Vermont, a state that has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections and one that allows independents -- the largest sector of the state's electorate -- to pick which party's primary they want to participate in when they show up to vote. According to a poll of likely Vermont primary voters conducted last week by the American Research Group Inc. polling company, independent voters by a 2-1 ratio say they will be voting in the Democratic primary March 4.5 Voters in Vermont choose one party's presidential primary ballot, and whatever ballot they choose will be public record. This is because the Legislature and political parties agreed that instead of requiring voters to register with a party, voters would have to publicly disclose which party ballot they are voting so that the Vermont primary will count toward the party's delegate selection process.6 Democrats in Vermont Both candidates have been running television ads in the state.7 The Obama campaign announced, on Feb. 25, that it will open three additional offices in Bennington, Brattleboro and Rutland -- bringing the total number of offices in Vermont to seven.8 As of Feb. 26, the Obama campaign had 10 paid staffers in Vermont. On Feb. 26, the Clinton camp announced the opening of its second Vermont campaign office, in Rutland. The other one is in Burlington. Vermont campaign spokeswoman Carly Lindauer said there were nine paid staffers in the state, but that no more offices will be opened. "We have folks organizing throughout the state," Lindauer said. Supporters are staffing phone banks, doing honk and waves on street corners and talking to people about their support for Clinton.9

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Obama's campaign plans an intense get-out-the-vote effort over the weekend, with volunteers staffing phone banks in seven locations across the state, according to spokesman Ted Brady. Chelsea Clinton hit the campaign trail in Vermont on behalf of her mother Friday (Feb. 29). Neither Hillary Clinton nor Obama are expected to campaign in Vermont before Tuesday's election. On Thursday, Obama picked up endorsements from 41 Vermont lawmakers.10 On Feb. 18, the co-founders of Ben & Jerry's Homemade Inc. announced at a news conference hosted by Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., that they were supporting Obama. Leahy, along with a number of top state Democrats, is backing Obama.11 As of Jan. 31, according to figures kept by the Federal Election Commission, Vermonters had contributed more than $506,969 to Obama, versus less than $55,269for Clinton.12 Anthony Gierzynski, a political scientist at the University of Vermont, said all signs point to an Obama victory in Vermont. But he said it would be worth Clinton's while to keep a presence in the state, given that Vermont could send a split delegation to the Democratic convention in Denver. "Clinton's state is across the lake," Gierzynski said. "She's going to do well enough to win some delegates here. But I suspect he'll win by a rather large margin."13 Republicans in Vermont McCain is certain to win Vermont, making the state less of a battleground on the Republican side. Since the GOP primary is winner-take-all, there's less incentive for Huckabee to campaign in the state and try to peel off some of Vermont's GOP delegates. The real excitement is on the Democratic side.14 McCain stumped in the state recently, but Democrats Obama and Clinton haven't.15 McCain's Feb. 14 trip to Vermont was his third visit to the state. He visited Vermont during his first presidential campaign in 1999 and again in 2006.16 Ron Paul has people going door-to-door talking to voters, plus radio and newspaper ads running around the state -- all organized and funded by Paul supporters in Vermont without help from Paul's national campaign office. McCain's operation, by comparison, has no staff working in Vermont and is being run from New Hampshire by Jim Barnett, a McCain aide and former chairman of the Vermont Republican Party. Huckabee appears to have no presence in the state. Paul is not expected to make a campaign visit to Vermont. In addition to running for president, back home he is facing a stiff March 4 GOP primary challenge for re-election to his House seat.17 Profile of Vermont Vermont, which is holding its presidential primaries March 4, had a 2007 population of about 620,000. Vermont has a higher median age, a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white-alone population and a lower percentage of blacks and Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. About 67 percent of Vermont’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election; the national rate was 64 percent.

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Selected Characteristics Vermont U.S. Median age 40.4 36.4 Women 50.8% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 95.7% 66.4% Black alone 0.7% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 1.1% 14.8% Median household income $47,665 $48,451 Foreign born 3.9% 12.5% Persons below poverty 10.3% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 32.4% 27.0% Median home value $193,000 $185,20018 Vermont is the only state President Bush hasn't visited while in office, and given the political climate, it's unlikely he will. In ultra-liberal Vermont, anti-war rallies started even before the war did, there's been talk of secession, and last year the state Senate called for the impeachment of Bush and Vice President Cheney. It didn't work. So the town of Brattleboro -- an artsy southern Vermont enclave that only recently banned public nudity -- wants to go a step further. On primary day, its residents will vote on whether to issue warrants for the arrest of Bush and Cheney, should they ever visit.19 Vermont's used to being overlooked in the presidential sweepstakes, save for 2004, when former Gov. Howard Dean came within shouting distance of the Democratic nomination. The governor of Vermont is a Republican, but U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders is an Independent who calls himself a socialist. The people of Vermont are fiercely independent, politically unpredictable and gracious to a fault, Vermonters value straight talk over partisanship.20 More than 4,000 Vermonters have registered to vote in the last month and election officials believe interest in the presidential primary is one of the main reasons why. Deputy Secretary of State Bill Dalton, whose office oversees Vermont's election system, said that as of Tuesday morning (the day before the deadline to register for the primary) Vermont had 421,595 registered voters, up from 417,342 on Jan. 13.21 Vermont is the No. 1 producer of maple syrup. "Sugarin' season" means the part of early spring when maple tree sap starts running.22

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Past Primary Results from Vermont

1996 Republican Primary Dole (R) 23,419 (40%) Buchanan (R) 9,730 (17%) Forbes (R) 9,066 (16%) Lugar (R) 7,881 (14%) Alexander (R) 6,145 (11%) Other 1,872 (3%)

2000 Republican Primary McCain (R) 49,045 (60%) Bush (R) 28,741 (35%) Other 3,569 (4%)

2000 Democratic Primary Gore (D) 26,774 (54%) Bradley (D) 21,629 (44%) Other 880 (2%)

2004 Democratic Primary Dean (D) 44,393 (54%) Kerry (D) 26,171 (32%) Edwards (D) 5,113 (6%) Kucinich (D) 3,396 (4%) Clark (D) 2,749 (3%) Other 1,059 (1%)

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OHIO



Ohio Semi-open primary

Voters do not register by party in Ohio. Under Ohio law, a voter’s political party affiliation is determined by the ballot they cast in a partisan primary election.

141 in the primary



85 in the primary

54 district level 31 statewide 3 RNC members Total: 88

Pledged district level delegates are winner-take-all by CD. Pledged statewide delegates are winner-take-all by statewide vote.

Introduction With Clinton and Obama wooing voters across Ohio with personal visits, television ads and celebrity appearances, the Buckeye state is enjoying unprecedented attention during a modern presidential primary. It's a strange feeling for Ohio. This sense of being influential. Of being needed. At least in March. Presidential candidates usually coddle up to Ohio later in the year.23 Ohio was a heartbreaker for Democrats in 2004, when John Kerry lost the state — and the presidency — by 118,601 votes. But the party made a big comeback in 2006 with wins for governor, U.S. senator and other offices. This year, Ohio may play as decisive a role in the nomination process as it often does in general elections. Clinton, who leads by 4 to 8 percentage points in recent polls here, needs a victory to revive a campaign battered by 11 straight losses. An upset win for Obama, particularly if he also wins Texas the same day, could make him his party's presumptive nominee. Unions and their concerns — topped by jobs, trade and health care — are highly visible in Ohio in advance of Tuesday's pivotal Democratic primary. The state's political leaders say whoever has the best economic message will win — the primary, the nomination and the general election. The North American Free Trade Agreement, pushed and signed by Clinton's husband, former president Bill Clinton, is a flash point here for economic unease. As they tour devastated manufacturing areas around the state, Obama and Clinton are pledging a new era of trade pacts that elevate worker and community concerns.

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Political analysts predict a tight contest as Obama's campaigning, ads and organization eat into Clinton's advantages as a well-known senator and former first lady. "It's closing fast for Obama, which has been his pattern all through this primary season," says Alexander Lamis, a political scientist at Case Western Reserve University. Obama has picked up major union support since his Feb. 19 win in Wisconsin, a boon in a state where a 2004 exit poll found 44% of voters in the Democratic primary were union members or lived with one. Labor backers of both Democrats are mounting intense drives to turn out tens of thousands of active members and retirees.24 In Ohio, as of the end of January, Obama has raised a bit more than Clinton: $1,081,172 to $980,859.25 Republicans in Ohio As McCain stood in front of a banner declaring Ohio "McCain Country," he told thousands of his supporters in this western suburb of Cleveland that Ohio is "one of the most important states in America." McCain said that in the last 44 years, every presidential candidate who has been elected has won the Ohio primary. He said he intends to do the same.26 McCain was so eager to kick off the Ohio leg of his presidential campaign that he gave his Wisconsin primary victory speech from a downtown Columbus hotel. McCain said he realizes he has a lot of work to do in Ohio, which ousted Republicans from every statewide, nonjudicial office save one in 2006. Among those exiled was long-time supporter and former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine, who stood next to him yesterday. "We need some straight talk here," Mr. McCain said. "The fact is our base was dispirited by spending and corruption. I was one of those who led in the [lobbyist Jack] Abramoff investigation, which caused some of those people to be put behind bars. We have a lot of work to do with our base. We have to unite it, and we have to energize it." McCain said his economic policies are a good fit with Ohio, a state that narrowly went for President George W. Bush, but continues to suffer a long-term manufacturing slump, with high unemployment and home foreclosure rates. He has rattled off a list of proposals that included lower taxes, lower interest rates, reduced regulation, better training for displaced workers, and incentives for development of green energy technology.27 McCain says more money needs to be spent on training programs for people who have lost their jobs. "We're not going to leave any displaced worker behind when I'm president," he told customers at a diner in suburban Toledo. He also says international free trade agreements have created millions of jobs in America. McCain has been walking a fine line between backing workers and saying a month ago that many lost manufacturing jobs aren't coming back. That stand cost him a month ago when he lost in Michigan's primary to Mitt Romney who promised not to give up on manufacturing jobs. Since then McCain has been reaching out to blue-collar workers.28 The battle for the Republican presidential nomination isn't over "until Ohio says it's over," Huckabee said at a Feb. 26 rally in Columbus. And maybe not even then, Huckabee hinted later. Huckabee urged Ohio supporters to "shock America" by helping him win Tuesday's primary.

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Talking with reporters later, Huckabee was asked, given his comments at the rally, if he would throw in the towel if he doesn't win in Ohio. He hesitated. "Well, whoever wins Ohio still won't have the 1,191 delegates need to win the nomination," he said. (McCain can go over the total needed to nominate if AP’s count of the Republican unpledged delegates is included) McCain has not called on Huckabee to exit the race and even mentioned his name when quizzed on his vice presidential prospects. Some McCain supporters say the nominally competitive race brings some attention to McCain, rather than leave his candidacy in the shadow of the Democratic race. A Feb. 26 rally generated some unwanted attention for McCain when one of the speakers brought in to fire up the crowd, WLW (700 AM) talk-radio host Bill Cunningham, sliced into Obama in personal terms. Repeatedly referring to Obama by his full name, Barack Hussein Obama, Cunningham said the media has anointed Obama without looking into his dealings with indicted Chicago developer Antoin "Tony" Rezko. Cunningham also called Obama a crony of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley's political machine and said Obama would do business with dictators in Iran and North Korea. "The world leaders who want to kill us will be sitting around the table singing Kumbaya with Barack Obama," Cunningham said. The crowd lapped it up, but McCain later disavowed the remarks. In remarks to reporters, McCain said he didn't know who invited Cunningham to speak but he wouldn't be asked back. McCain said he doesn't think it's appropriate to dwell on Obama's middle name. "We will have a respectful debate, as I've said on many occasions," McCain said. Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said in a statement: "We appreciate Sen. McCain's remarks. It is a sign that if there is a McCain-Obama general election, it can be intensely competitive but the candidates will attempt to keep it respectful and focused on issues."29 Democrats in Ohio Primaries March 4 in Ohio and Texas are shaping up as a make-or-break test of the Clinton campaign's viability, and even her husband has said she must win both states. Polls show a statistical tie in Texas and a narrowing lead for Clinton in Ohio.30 With 11 straight primary victories behind him, Obama has eclipsed Clinton both in the popular vote and in the number of delegates, although she is said by recent polls, including the most recent FOX News Poll, to lead Obama in Ohio.31 The most recent FOX News Poll of likely voters has Clinton leading in Ohio by eight points. Recent polls have shown Obama sharply cutting into Clinton's long-held lead in Ohio. Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in Connecticut, said Obama's huge edge in campaign advertising apparently is helping in Ohio. "It is tough to play defense, but that is what Sen. Clinton is attempting to do," Brown said.32 In Ohio, the two Democratic candidates have been debating what has hurt the economically distressed state more: free-trade pacts or the housing crisis. While Obama focuses his economic talks on criticizing the North American Free Trade Agreement, implemented during the presidency of Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton is struggling to stay in the race by presenting herself as the candidate who can solve the housing crisis.

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Both issues run deep in Ohio, which has lost more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000 and saw 150,000 homes go into foreclosure last year, one of the highest rates in the country.33 White blue-collar workers, a large constituency in Ohio, had consistently supported Clinton over Obama in primaries and caucuses elsewhere until his 17-point victory in last week's Wisconsin primary. He won over working-class voters there with a campaign that stressed Clinton administration trade agreements among its themes. In recent weeks, Obama has secured endorsements from several major unions, including the Teamsters, the Service Employees International and the United Food & Commercial Workers.34 Obama has gone on the offensive against Clinton with criticism of her universal health care plan that she claimed was "blatantly false." Obama said the problem with Clinton's mandatory insurance plan is that it would require people to buy insurance that they may not be able to afford. Clinton said Obama's campaign literature that made the same remark was "blatantly false." Speaking to a crowd in Cincinnati she said, "Shame on you, Barack Obama."35 The Clinton campaign hopes to attract Ohio voters with the endorsement of John Glenn, a former Marine Corps fighter pilot who was the first American to orbit the Earth in 1962. He enjoys wide popularity in Ohio, for whom he served as U.S. senator from 1974 to 1999. A Clinton ad featuring Glenn focuses on Clinton's economic message, which the campaign believes will have particular resonance in union-heavy Ohio. Clinton has run two ads in Ohio focusing on her economic issues -- from fixing NAFTA to seeking middle-class tax cuts. The campaign hopes to increase her support among working-class voters, which polls show have been one of her strengths.36

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll Ohio - February 29, 2008 Polling was conducted by telephone February 26-28, 2008. The total sample is 600 likely Democratic primary voters in Ohio with a margin of error of ±4%. Clinton Obama Other Undecided ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Likely Democratic Voters 46% 38% 2% 14% Men 41% 43% 3% 14% Women 51% 33% 2% 14% White Men 44% 41% 2% 12% White Women 57% 27% 2% 14% Whites 50% 34% 2% 13% Blacks 9% 72% 3% 16% NAFTA Throughout the campaign North American Free Trade Agreement has been a dilemma for Clinton, who is counting on the support of white, working-class voters but whose husband championed the passage of the agreement, which went into effect Jan. 1, 1994. It created what remains the largest trade bloc in the world based on the combined GDP of its member nations -- the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

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The loss of Midwest jobs to Mexico predates NAFTA. But the pact produced a burst of investment in Mexico, much of it from the U.S. It also has become a symbol of how globalization could undermine U.S. jobs -- even as it aids consumer wealth through lower-cost imports.37 NAFTA is deeply unpopular in this economically lagging industrial state. Obama has struck at Clinton's base of support among blue-collar workers by accusing her of trying to back away from past support of NAFTA. Obama laid responsibility for NAFTA squarely with her husband's administration, which secured ratification of the treaty. And he has quoted from past statements Clinton made supportive of the agreement, including one from 2004. Clinton had angrily denounced the Obama campaign for circulating fliers that she said distorted her record on NAFTA.38 An Obama flier quoted a 2006 Newsday article suggesting Clinton believed the agreement had been a "boon" to the economy. NAFTA and other trade agreements are extremely unpopular in Ohio, which has suffered an exodus of manufacturing jobs to other countries in part due to such agreements. Clinton said Newsday had corrected the record about her views on the agreement; the paper published a blog item earlier this month saying Obama's use of the word "boon" was unfair.39 Neither Obama nor Clinton has called for a repeal of NAFTA but instead say they would renegotiate the pact with Mexico to beef up labor and environmental standards. Clinton goes one step further, urging a "timeout" on new trade agreements. Last year, both Clinton and Obama supported a new trade pact with Peru, saying that it included the labor and environmental protections they want for a revised NAFTA. Although Obama expressed opposition to NAFTA during his 2004 campaign for the U.S. Senate, Clinton appears to be more of a recent convert. In her 2003 autobiography Living History, she wrote glowingly of President Bill Clinton's decision to push NAFTA through Congress in 1993, saying it would create "a free-trade zone in North America -- the largest free-trade zone in the world -- would expand U.S. exports, create jobs and ensure that our economy was reaping the benefits, not the burdens, of globalization." But now as she seeks Democratic votes in the primaries, Clinton is striking a markedly different tone. The Clinton campaign explains the passage in her book as her merely rehashing the arguments of her husband's economic advisers.40 Both candidates oppose pending trade deals with South Korea and Colombia. Clinton has called for a "timeout" on trade deals, until a comprehensive policy to guide future agreements is worked out. Obama has promised not to sign any new trade pacts unless they have "protections" for U.S. workers.41 Mortgage Crisis The mortgage crisis has emerged as a more central economic theme for Clinton. Clinton has laid out a plan for a 90-day moratorium on home foreclosures, a five-year interest-rate freeze on adjustable-rate mortgages and a $30 billion fund that would go directly to counties affected by the mortgage crisis. Obama doesn't speak nearly as much about housing as he does about free trade, but he did recently say that Clinton's plan to freeze interest rates would "reward folks who made this problem worse" and "drive rates through the roof on people who are trying to get new mortgages or refinance a home."

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His plan includes penalizing predatory lenders and making an additional $10 billion in bonds available to help Americans buy a first home or avoid foreclosure.42 He also would give a tax credit to struggling homeowners to cover 10 percent of the interest on their mortgages each year.43 Economic Troubles in Ohio The sharp rhetoric employed by Obama and Clinton on international trade is yet another sign of how the economy has eclipsed the war in Iraq as the major issue of the presidential campaign in Ohio. Although both contenders have offered detailed plans on reducing taxes for middle-income Americans, extending health insurance for those without coverage, and developing alternative energy, nothing resonates better with blue-collar Democrats in Ohio than the idea that wealthy manufacturers have taken advantage of trade agreements to move their production facilities abroad. The employment statistics in Ohio are grim: Since 2000, more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs have vanished. The state's largest private employer in 1995 was General Motors; today it is Wal-Mart. The state's unemployment rate is 6 percent, compared with 3.9 percent in 2000. But those numbers do not show the entire picture. Even as the state shed manufacturing jobs, manufacturing output in Ohio since 2000 has increased by 12 percent, according to the National Association of Manufacturers. Many economists trace the manufacturing job loss in Ohio to the ability of companies to produce goods with less people. "The speed by which that's happening is kind of stunning," said Eric Burkland, president of the Ohio Manufacturers Association. The state's economy also has dramatically diversified. More than 25 Ohio private employers in 2006 had more than 12,000 workers on their payrolls compared to just 10 in 1995. In addition, Ohio's exports have soared from $27.7 billion in 2002 to $37.8 billion in 2006, including $9.4 billion worth of machinery compared with $7.95 billion in 2002.44 As Ohio's pivotal March 4 primary approaches, Obama and Clinton have each called for significant infrastructure investment, development of alternative energy and other "green-collar" jobs, while promising to toughen environmental and labor standards that accompany free trade deals. Those ideas are welcome here in heavily unionized and heavily Democratic northwest Ohio, but at the same time, no one seems to believe they go far enough to reverse the powerful tide of globalization that many blame for the constant manufacturing job losses. The Toledo metropolitan area's unemployment rate has dipped below 6 percent only once in the past 20 years, and is now 6.4 percent -- 1.5 points above the national rate. Median home prices here barely top $100,000, yet the city is in the top 20 in the nation in number of foreclosures. Even a bright spot is the result of a downside. One of the fastest-growing segments in the local economy has been warehousing, where employment grew 40 percent in the past year -- but that is largely because of the conversion of vacant factories into storage space.45 The Youngstown metropolitan area alone has lost 36 percent of its manufacturing jobs during the past 10 years, after two decades of job losses from steel-mill closings.46

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Obama has been steadily gaining support from lower-income voters, beating Clinton among voters in households with incomes of under $50,000 a year by 24 percentage points in Maryland, by 26 points in Virginia, and by 10 points in Wisconsin, according to exit polls. With the Illinois senator edging closer in the polls in Ohio, Clinton is counting on working-class and lower-middle-class voters to help salvage her campaign after losses in 11 straight contests. In a state where people are focused on job losses, "economy" voters are Clinton's biggest strength, favoring her strongly in the polls. Obama's personal and professional background would seem, at first glance, to give him a foothold among economically struggling voters, analysts say. He was raised by a single mother, and was a community organizer in Chicago before getting into politics. Clinton, by contrast, grew up in a middle-class Illinois suburb and made partner in an Arkansas law firm before becoming first lady in 1993 and in 2001, a US senator from New York. But in most states, Clinton has enjoyed a strong advantage among working-class voters, a trend voters and political specialists say can be attributed to nostalgia for the Clinton administration and a sense that Hillary Clinton is more authentic to lower-income voters. And while Obama's speeches calling for change and a new America have been inspiring huge crowds filled with young and first-time voters, Clinton's pragmatic message resonates among low-income voters looking for specific proposals to address their economic troubles. While Obama's compelling speaking style has won over numerous voters and helped propel him to the lead in delegates, many working-class voters say they don't believe he is speaking to them and their problems. And Obama's popularity among college students has further identified him with what working-class voters see as a latte-drinking intellectual crowd, said Ken Heineman, an Ohio University history professor and specialist on labor and politics.47 Profile of Ohio Ohio, which is holding its presidential primaries on March 4, had a 2007 population of about 11.5 million. Ohio has a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white-alone population and a lower percentage of Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. About 66 percent of Ohio’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election. Selected Characteristics Ohio U.S. Median age 37.6 36.4 Women 51.2% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 82.9% 66.4% Black alone 12.0% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 2.3% 14.8% Median household income $44,532 $48,451 Foreign born 3.6% 12.5% Persons below poverty 13.3% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 23.0% 27.0% Median home value $135,200 $185,20048 Clinton should win Ohio, based on everything politicians know about the state: its people; their gender, racial and income breakdown; their educations; and the way they normally vote in Democratic primary elections.

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Even Barack Obama's campaign strategists agree on that point. "She should be considered the favorite to win in Ohio, no doubt about that," said David Plouffe, Obama's national campaign manager, a couple of weeks ago. But no one knows if the old ways will hold in Ohio in 2008. In most elections, Ohio's voter demographics the makeup of the people who vote would play to Clinton's strength. Many women, for example, prefer Clinton over Obama, according to exit polls from recent Democratic primary elections in other states. That should help Clinton in Ohio, where women account for roughly 60 percent of Democratic primary voters, according to data from pollsters and Democratic operatives. Union households have provided another Clinton strength. In past elections, as many as one in three Ohio voters reported living in a union household. Black voters, on the other hand, have overwhelmingly preferred Obama. They helped him win big in states such as South Carolina, where blacks accounted for about half the Democratic voters. But in the past, only about 12 percent of Democratic primary voters in Ohio have been black, according to data used by political professionals. Some recent polls have suggested that a slightly higher percentage of this primary's voters might be black. They would support Obama. "She (Clinton) has done best in states among low-income whites, middle- income whites, those without college educations, and women," says Peter Brown, an assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "And the demographics of Ohio are better in many of those ways than in some of the other states." "To paraphrase Frank Sinatra, if she can't win there, in Ohio, she can't win anywhere," Brown says. Yet everything known about Ohio demographics and voting patterns could be turned on its head by March 4. The trends would have to twist dramatically for Clinton to lose, but Obama backers see it as possible if their candidate can gain with groups traditionally thought to be in Clinton's base. Polls in Missouri, Minnesota and Connecticut showed Clinton with a big edge within several weeks of those primaries. Obama wound up winning each of them, partly because of voter turnout. Demographics and turnout will be linked on March 4 along with geography and weather. Political consuntants predict that black voters will go to the polls at a higher rate than the 12 percent figure that others have cited. About 20 percent of all registered Ohio Democrats are black. College students and young adults could come out in big numbers, undeterred even by weather.49 In the city of Cleveland, which Clinton must win by a large margin if she is to prevail in Ohio, both the city's mayor, Frank Jackson, and its main daily newspaper, The Plain Dealer, have endorsed Obama.50 Democratic Delegates in Ohio By most electoral standards, a 60 percent to 40 percent win is an old-fashioned trouncing. But should either Clinton or Obama win by that margin in Rep. John Boehner's 8th Congressional District on March 4, it won't have much impact at all.

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The district -- a swath of all or parts of Mercer, Darke, Miami, Preble and Montgomery counties -- is one of seven in the state that will only get four delegates to the Democratic National Convention based on its primary results. And following Democratic primary election math in Ohio, it'll take 62.5 percent of the vote to get the majority of the delegates in that district and others. Like every other Democratic primary election, Ohio Democrats award their delegates on a proportional basis, meaning on the morning of March 5, both Clinton and Obama are likely to be richer in delegates. Most of the southwest Ohio districts have just four delegates. The exception is the 3rd Congressional District, represented by Mike Turner, R-Centerville, which gets five. Whoever wins there will likely gain a delegate advantage without having to annihilate the other candidate at the polls.51 Thanks to Ohio's "proportional" primary, northeast Ohio may get more attention than the Dayton-Cincinnati areas. Democrat-rich Youngstown -- and the counties that surround it -- offer a richer bounty for the candidates than the congressional districts around Dayton and Cincinnati. Of the Democrats' 141 pledged delegates, 92 are split among the 18 congressional districts, with Democratic-leaning districts getting the lion's share. The other 49 are at-large delegates who are pledged according to the March 4 results.52

Past Primary Results from Ohio

1992 Republican Primary Bush (R) 716,766 (83%) Buchanan (R) 143,687 (17%)

1992 Democratic Primary Clinton (D) 638,347 (61%) Brown (D) 197,449 (19%) Tsongas (D) 110,773 (11%) Other 47,395 (5%) Harkin 25,395 (2%) Kerrey (D) 22,976 (2%)

1996 Republican Primary Dole (R) 631,192 (66%) Buchanan (R) 204,875 (22%) Forbes (R) 57,358 (6%) Other 55,823 (6%)

2000 Republican Primary Bush (R) 810,369 (58%)

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McCain (R) 516,790 (37%) Keyes (R) 55,266 (4%)

2000 Democratic Primary Gore (D) 720,311 (74%) Bradley (D) 241,688 (25%) Other 16,513 (2%)

2004 Democratic Primary Kerry (D) 632,590 (52%) Edwards (D) 416,104 (34%) Kucinich (D) 110,066 (9%) Dean (D) 30,983 (3%) Lieberman (D) 14,676 (1%) Other 16,595 (1%)

10th District Democratic Primary – Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (D-Ohio) In the Democratic primary, Rep. Kucinich is facing the first serious challenge for his Cleveland-area Congressional seat since he was elected in 1996. Coming off his second presidential race, Kucinichs national campaigns have angered residents and business leaders, many of whom have put their money behind young, ambitious Cleveland City Councilman Joe Cimperman (D). And Cimperman is not the only one with his eyes on Kucinich. Three other Democrats are running because they also say Kucinich has neglected to take care of the district while he was on the presidential campaign trail. The March 4 Congressional primaries in Ohio coincide with the White House primary. That means turnout in Kucinichs 10th district will be high and unpredictable, especially because Ohio voters have an open primary in which anyone, regardless of party, can vote in the Democratic contest. Cimperman, a 37-year-old city councilman with boundless energy, has the best chance of taking down Kucinich. Cimperman announced around the first of the year that he had raised $228,000 for this campaign and was putting a television advertisement on the Cleveland airwaves. At that time, Kucinich had $13,400 in his re-election campaigns bank account. For the first time in his Congressional career, Kucinich last week debated his primary opponents in a large venue, sponsored by the City Club, a local civic organization. By vehemently protesting the networks for shutting him out of the White House debates, Kucinich had backed himself into a corner.53 Kucinich conceded his House seat was in trouble when he abandoned his presidential bid in late January, telling his hometown paper, "I want to continue to serve in Congress."

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Kucinich also ran for president in 2004 and stayed in the race all the way to the Democratic convention without trouble back home. This time, the coverage of his campaign rarely reached beyond his quest to impeach Vice President Dick Cheney, his marriage to a woman 31 years his junior, and a public acknowledgment that he saw a UFO in 1982 during a stay at actress Shirley MacLaine's home in Washington state.54

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TEXAS

Primary Polls Open 8:00 AM (EST) – Primary Polls Close 9:00 PM (EST) Democratic Caucuses On-Time Start 8:15 PM (EST) and 9:15 PM (EST)


Texas Open primary

Voters do not register by party in Texas. Registered voters may participate in either primary. One becomes "affiliated" with a party by voting in a party's primary and the affiliation lasts for that primary year.

126 in the primary 67 in the caucuses 193 total on March 4 126 district level 67 statewide 35 super-delegates Total: 228

Pledged district level delegates are allocated according to the primary vote in each of the 31 state senate districts, with a 15% threshold.

Pledged statewide delegates are allocated according to a poll of state convention delegates (State Convention occurs June 6-7). AP may do a projective allocation of these 67 delegates based on March 4 events.

137 in the primary

96 district level 41 statewide 3 RNC members Total: 140

GOP CD allocation: Winner-take-all if only one candidate receives over 50% or 20% of the vote in the CD. Otherwise, if more than one candidate receives over 20% of the vote, the plurality winner gets 2 delegates, and the next highest vote-getter receives 1 delegate. If no candidate receives over 20% of the vote, the top three vote-getters each get one delegate.

GOP At Large allocation: Winner-take-all if only one candidate receives over 50% or 20% of the vote statewide. Otherwise, if more than one candidate receives over 20% of the vote, delegates are allocated proportionally to those candidates reaching the 20% threshold. If no candidate reaches the 20% threshold, all candidates are eligible to receive delegates, and delegates are allocated proportionally.

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Democrats in Texas In the most recent FOX News Poll, Clinton and Obama were nearly tied in Texas; Obama lead Clinton by a slim 3 points. Obama leads among all men in Texas, including a 20-percentage point lead among white men. Clinton is ahead with women and has a large edge with the oldest voters. The two are even among whites, two in three Hispanics support Clinton, and Obama has enormous leads with blacks and younger voters. Clinton had long hoped for an easier time in Texas; she had maintained a lead in the polls until only very recently. The selection system in Texas -- made up of a primary followed immediately by caucuses -- appears to favor Obama. Big cities, with heavy black populations, such as Dallas and Houston, get more delegates than rural and heavily Hispanic districts. Clinton is counting on a heavy Hispanic vote. The Clinton campaign has built a large operation in Texas, opening 20 offices around the state and counting 100,000 volunteers, and she has deep ties to the state.55 Former President Bill Clinton said his wife has a special affinity for Texas from her days registering voters in South Texas in 1972.56 Strategies on the ground before the March 4 primary - including the opening of multiple campaign offices, the infusion of nationally tested field staffers, early TV and radio ad buys and the candidates vigorously touring the state - demonstrate that Clinton and Obama expect a voter-by-voter slugfest with huge stakes. If Texas tilts Obama's way, Clinton's goal of recovering from Obama's recent spate of wins will be smashed; her campaign could crash. But if the state sticks with Clinton, she could gain desperately needed momentum before balloting in the remaining states and territories that will weigh the candidates before the party's August convention in Denver. Most likely, political professionals say, the pair could end up without wide differences in their shares of the state's 193 delegates available on March 4. That's because most delegates will be awarded proportionally within state senatorial districts, with 126 delegates going to the candidates based on the popular vote March 4. Another 67 delegates will be selected later via a process that begins with 8,000 election-night precinct caucuses. The wild card for both candidates could be turnout. In the heavily contested 1988 Democratic primary, won by Michael Dukakis, nearly 2 million voters, 23 percent of the state's registered voters, cast ballots. If that share of voters acts this year, the Democrats would set a record of about 3 million voters, though the party has said recently that it expected turnout to surpass 1988. Because Texas Democrats award delegates proportionally, even if Clinton wins the popular vote statewide, Obama could whittle at her victory and win delegates by staying close in some districts.57

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Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll Texas - February 29, 2008 Polling was conducted by telephone February 26-28, 2008. The total sample is 600 likely Democratic primary voters in Texas with a margin of error of ±4%. Clinton Obama Other Undecided ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Likely Democratic Voters 45% 48% 2% 5% Men 39% 52% 3% 5% Women 50% 43% 2% 5% White Men 35% 55% 3% 7% White Women 52% 40% 2% 6% Whites 44% 47% 2% 6% Blacks 9% 87% 2% 2% Hispanics 67% 29% 2% 2% Democrats Spending Heavily in Texas Obama and Clinton have been all over the Central Texas airwaves. The candidates' advertising blitz is only going to intensify as the March 4 Texas primaries approach. Clinton and Obama are locked in a fierce contest, and they're unloading 30-second spots all over Texas. In the early going, the ads were personal, emotional and biographical. Both camps have ads specific to Texas cities. Houston, San Antonio and the Rio Grande Valley, for example, have Spanish language ads geared toward Latino voters.58 Obama and Clinton have spent more money on Texas television advertising in the past three weeks than all the past four Democratic presidential nominees spent on their entire Texas campaigns combined. Clinton has spent almost $3 million and Obama has spent $4.6 million on TV in Texas, according to a study by the Campaign Media Analysis Group produced for local campaigns. Clinton and Obama spent almost 60 percent of their money in Houston and Dallas. Clinton directed $268,000 at San Antonio TV; Obama, $546,779. 59 The Austin debate on CNN was the most-watched TV program that night, drawing 124,000 households locally — that is twice the number of homes tuned to "American Idol."60 Obama accused rival Clinton on Friday of trying to "play on people's fears to scare up votes" with a television ad showing sleeping children and asking who would be more qualified to answer a national security emergency call at 3 a.m.61 Republicans in Texas McCain has said that his fight to win the Texas primary was more about unifying the GOP than a straight contest against Mike Huckabee. "It's important that we unite the party," McCain said on Feb. 19. "There's a large spectrum of the Republican Party in Texas. I'm going to do what I can do to unite it."62

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Texas is home to many social conservatives, a key Republican constituency and the heart of Huckabee's hopes. Many of them have been reluctant to get behind McCain's candidacy. If McCain can beat Huckabee soundly in the Lone Star State, it would be another blow to the Arkansas governor's increasingly quixotic quest for president.63 McCain is seeking to avoid a poor showing in Texas against Huckabee, who has drawn strong support from evangelical voters. McCain suggested that he can make inroads with evangelical voters with his tough stands against Islamic extremism and conservative positions on economic issues such as taxes. Many conservatives remain angry at McCain because of his support for a comprehensive immigration law overhaul that included a proposed guest worker program and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. McCain now says that he wants to secure the borders first before moving on to the more controversial elements of an immigration plan. On the subject of the border fence, which is opposed by many along the Texas-Mexico boundary, McCain said that a wall was necessary in populated areas. One of McCain's biggest current challenges is to become financially competitive with the Democrats, who have raised record amounts of cash. McCain has been using some of his time in Texas to meet with fundraisers. Before his string of primary victories, McCain lagged behind not only Democrats Clinton and Obama but some of his Republican primary rivals in contributions. Now, McCain is challenging Obama, the campaign's leading fundraiser, to live up to his pledge to take public financing in the fall election.64 Republican Cross-Over Voters Republican and Republican-leaning insiders report that a number of their GOP friends - their own presidential race all but sewn up - are planning to vote in the Democratic primary on March 4. They suspect that many independents and moderate Republicans intrigued with Obama's surge will cast Democratic ballots. Unlike in many other states, Texas voters don't register by party. Any voter can vote in either primary, but not in both. Party jumping by moderates would enhance the conservative control of the GOP primary. Many conservative Texas Republicans are still eager to vote for Huckabee, despite McCain's insurmountable lead for the party's nomination. Many Texas Republicans love to hate Clinton, and they may not get to vote against her in November if Obama's winning streak stays alive. Others, however, could vote for Clinton because they believe she would be easier for McCain to beat in November. This is similar to the strategy that some Republicans employed during the long-ago days of Democratic rule in Texas. GOP voters would cast ballots in the Democratic primary for the most "liberal" candidate, hoping to increase the general election chances for the long-shot Republican nominee in what was then, as now, a conservative state.65 Obama recently coined the term Obamacans for Republicans who have been charmed by his message and charisma. His campaign has cited that crossover effect as a reason he is more electable than Clinton.

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Many want to vote for Obama to "knock out Hillary," said Stephanie Klick, Tarrant County Republican Party chairwoman. Darrell Castillo, a professor of government at Tarrant County College's Southeast Campus, said he knows of many Republicans voting based on how they think they can help McCain in November.66

Democratic Primary & Precinct Convention Rules

• Texas has 193 Democratic delegates up for grabs Tuesday. Of those delegates, 126 will come from the primary, and 67 from the caucuses.

• A total of 126 delegates will be awarded based on the outcome of the primary vote in each of the 31 state senatorial districts. But the number of delegates available in each district is not equal: Delegates are allocated based on the votes cast in districts in the 2004 and 2006 presidential and gubernatorial elections.

• An additional 42 at-large delegates are awarded at the state convention in June. The state convention also elects an additional 25 pledged-party and elected-official delegates. These 67 delegates are pledged to individual candidates based on participation that begins in precinct caucuses on election night and ends in senatorial district caucuses at the state convention.

Republican Primary Rules

• Texas has 137 Republican delegates up for grabs Tuesday. The Republican nominating process in Texas is far simpler than the process used by the Democrats.

• Three delegates are available in each of the state's 32 congressional districts for a total of 96. An additional 41 delegates are allotted on the basis of the statewide vote.

• A candidate who gets more than 50 percent of the vote in each district wins all its delegates. A plurality victor shares delegates with any second-place finisher who breaks a threshold of 20 percent of the vote.

• A candidate who gets more than 50 percent of the statewide vote wins all the at-large delegates. A plurality victor in the statewide vote shares delegates with any second-place finisher who breaks a threshold of 20 percent of the vote.67

Two Contests for the Democrats Clinton has been banking on the state's large Hispanic population — typically about a quarter of the turnout in Democratic primaries — to give her a victory on March 4. But the Democratic Party’s hybrid primary-caucus might just be better suited for Obama. "I had no idea how bizarre it is," Clinton told reporters. "We have grown men crying over it." 68 Texas Democrats will use both a primary election and precinct caucuses March 4 to allocate the largest single bloc of delegates left on the Democratic presidential nomination calendar. A total of 193 delegates are at stake.

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The primary election will choose 126 of them, but it's really 31 separate elections — one in each state Senate district. Each district gets from two to eight delegates based on the Democratic turnout there in past elections. The delegates in each state Senate district primary will be allocated proportionally among the candidates, with a minimum of 15 percent of the vote required to qualify for any delegates. Big city districts in Houston, Dallas and Austin with large Democratic turnout in the 2004 and 2006 general election have more delegates to offer than some predominantly Hispanic districts in the Rio Grande Valley and El Paso, which could pose a problem for Hillary Rodham Clinton who has enjoyed solid Hispanic support during earlier primaries. For instance, a state Senate district in Austin, where 30 percent of residents are Hispanic, will have eight delegates, but a state Senate district in the border city of Brownsville, where the population is 91 percent Hispanic, gets only three. State Democratic Party spokesman Hector Nieto said Democrats in low-turnout districts have only themselves to blame for the number of delegates they get. Another 67 delegates will be awarded based on attendance at precinct caucuses — Texas calls them conventions — held as soon as the primary polls close on March 4. These operate like the better known Iowa caucuses. They elect delegates to county and state Senate district conventions March 29, which in turn elect delegates to the state Democratic convention June 6-7. The actual number of caucus delegates each candidate gets depends on the preferences of those who show up at the state convention, but theoretically that allocation is prefigured by the results of the March 4 evening caucuses. So news organizations will report the likely number for each candidate based on the caucus results the evening of March 4, just as they do in Iowa and other caucus states. Texas has another 35 so-called superdelegates who are not bound by any of this voting. These delegates are members of Congress, Democratic national committee members, and leading state party officials. "It's not new," Texas Democratic strategist Ed Martin said of the 20-year-old primary-caucus system. "It's a system that's been supported by Democrats" to reward those who turn out for Democrats in the general election.69 Texas Democrats can vote for their candidate in the March 4 primary and again in the caucus. And it's legal - as long as they follow the rules. For those who don't vote during the state's early voting period, more than 8,000 election day polling sites will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time on Tuesday, March 4. A total of 126 delegates will be awarded to presidential candidates based on the outcome of the primary voting in the state's 31 Texas Senate districts. At 7:15 p.m., party officials will immediately hold precinct conventions or caucuses. However, these caucuses won’t begin until everyone waiting in line to vote at 7:00 p.m. has had the chance to do so; some precinct conventions could start late. Any person who has cast a ballot in the Democratic primary is eligible to attend the caucus in his or her precinct. Upon arrival, caucus goers will be asked to fill out a form 'pledging' themselves to a particular presidential candidate or as 'uncommitted.' The outcome of those caucuses will

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ultimately help determine delegates to the state Democratic convention, where the rest of Texas' 67 presidential delegates will be determined. A Republican can vote in the Democratic caucuses, but only if they vote in the Democratic primary first.'70 Clinton’s Fears There’s apprehension within Clinton's campaign that Texas' hybrid nominating contest, which allocates two-thirds of its delegates in the primary and one-third in the caucus, could prove to be her last stand. Since the Nevada caucuses on Jan. 19, Obama has defeated Clinton in every state that's held traditional caucuses, open meetings that reward grassroots organization and vigorous commitment to a candidate. Clinton could conceivably win the Texas primary but still see her delegate advantage there evaporate if Obama supporters turn out in droves for the meetings held in over 8,000 precincts after polls close across the state. In 1992, when Bill Clinton first ran for the White House, Texas and its hybrid system were very good to him. He captured 66 percent of the primary vote over his leading rival that year, former Sen. Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts, and won 94 of the pledged delegates at stake in the primary while Tsongas took 31 -- a 3-to-1 margin that Sen. Clinton can only dream about today. And in the caucuses, which allocated another 69 pledged delegates, Clinton ended up walking away with 63. His campaign outperformed Tsongas in large part because he was supported by many of the "party leaders.” Since the Nevada caucuses, in which Clinton captured the popular vote but lost the delegate battle by one, her campaign has been outhustled by the Obama team, and that may be unfolding again in Texas. Turnout for the caucus will depend heavily on voter education about the state's unique electoral process. Bill Clinton, along with daughter Chelsea, have crisscrossed the state to explain the system to voters, urging them four or five times during each appearance to spread the word about the evening caucus and early voting.71 Unlike other states that allocate delegates by congressional districts, Texas distributes 126 of its delegates among its 31 state Senate districts using a formula based on Democratic voter turnout in the 2004 and 2006 general elections. The 31 districts contain from two to eight delegates. The March 4 primary vote in each Senate district will allocate that district's delegates. The turnout formula has assigned more delegates to urban centers with a lot of young or black voters that tend to favor Obama and fewer delegates to poorer Hispanic areas expected to favor Clinton. Austin, which includes the University of Texas, gets eight; Houston gets seven and Dallas gets six. Clinton has spent most of her time so far in the southern, largely Hispanic part of the state. She has made repeated trips to Hidalgo County, where the Senate district awards just four delegates.72 Profile of Texas Texas, which is holding its presidential primaries on March 4, had a 2007 population of about 24 million that grew 14.6 percent between 2000 and 2007, about double the rate for the nation as a whole during that same time period. Texas’ percentage of the Hispanic population is more than twice the national average, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. About 57 percent of

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Texas’ voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, one of the lowest percentages in the country. The national figure was 64 percent. Selected Characteristics Texas U.S. Population change: 2000-2007 14.6% 7.2% Median age 33.1 36.4 Women 50.2% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 48.3% 66.4% Black alone 11.9% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 35.7% 14.8% Median household income $44,922 $48,451 Foreign born 15.9% 12.5% Persons below poverty 16.9% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 24.7% 27.0% Median home value $114,000 $185,20073 Texas is as large as New England, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina combined, and probably even more diverse. The state has become a political battleground to a degree not witnessed in a generation. And the rapidly mounting fight has reminded national political strategists yet again of Texas’ strange largeness — or large strangeness — a state that Congress decided in 1845, the year it joined the Union, might well be later divided into four more states should it consent. That provision stemmed from the debate over slavery, but it was an acknowledgment of the state’s unwieldy size and stark geographical differences, from prairie towns with plainly descriptive names like Notrees and Levelland to the swamps and cypress forests of the Big Thicket National Preserve in the southeast to coastal towns like Galveston, with old Victorian neighborhoods reminiscent of San Francisco. “It’s like running a national campaign,” said one veteran Texas Democrat, Garry Mauro, state director for Clinton. “There are no similarities between Amarillo and Brownsville and Beaumont and Texarkana and El Paso and Austin and Houston and Dallas. These are very separate demographic groups with very diverse interests.” There is the frontier-conservative Texas of Amarillo, in the Panhandle. There is the vast, immigrant-heavy Texas of Houston. There is East Texas, with its Deep South ethos, a region one Democratic consultant described as being more like Mississippi than Texas. There is the central part of the state, among the most heavily Republican areas in the country (and home to President Bush’s ranch), yet represented in Congress by Chet Edwards, a well-liked Democrat who recently endorsed Obama. Laid on top of the complicated statewide map, 790 miles long and 660 miles wide at its farthest points, there are others, like the one — studied with scientific precision now by both campaigns — that divides Texas into 31 primary-election districts and apportions delegates according to a formula based on the Democratic voter turnout in those districts in the 2004 presidential election and the 2006 election for governor. The higher the turnout in a district, the more delegates it has to offer, meaning that urban areas like Austin — where Obama has been received in recent days with the kind of fervor usually accorded only Willie Nelson — will award a large number. The Austin district has eight delegates at stake, while the district that includes Brownsville, a heavily Hispanic area in which Clinton has deep roots as a Democratic organizer, will award only three.

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Texas is also separated into 20 media markets, among the most of any state in the country, with the added necessity of buying advertisements in Oklahoma and Louisiana if you want to cover every corner of it. Representative Edwards said that to reach all the voters in his long, irregularly shaped district, he would need to buy air time in five markets. Bruce Buchanan, a professor of political science at the University of Texas, said that the state had always been a complicated, counterintuitive place to campaign but that as populations and allegiances shifted — more Hispanic voters concentrating in urban areas, for example, reducing their influence in the Rio Grande Valley — the regional differences had become even trickier. “Some people have wondered, for example, why Hillary has gone to El Paso, which is 75 percent Hispanic, and not spent more of her time elsewhere,” maybe in bigger urban areas trying to fight for votes there, Dr. Buchanan said. “She and her team didn’t see it that way, and there’s undoubtedly a lot of thinking behind it. There are all kinds of these double feints going on now as they try to outstrategize each other.”74 Latinos and African Americans have come to comprise roughly half of the Lone Star Democratic electorate--and a majority of the state party's power brokers. Democrats control 13 of Texas' 32 congressional districts, and nine of those seats are occupied by minority lawmakers. Obama can count on strong support from African Americans in cities like Dallas and Houston, and that support will be amplified by the baroque rules under which Texas Democrats award delegates. To offset his advantage, Clinton must do extremely well with the Latino voters who dominate large parts of South Texas from El Paso to Brownsville. Clinton made a good start last year by collecting endorsements from most of the South Texas bosses. But stances that might help Clinton elsewhere may be hurtful along the Rio Grande. For example, bashing international trade agreements is a vote winner among factory workers in Ohio, which also votes on March 4. But South Texas Democrats love free trade: the impoverished region pins its economic future on commerce with Mexico. Same with denouncing the oil industry, which employs a lot of Democratic voters in South Texas. Ditto for scorn heaped on the Bush Administration's No Child Left Behind legislation. That plays well with teachers' unions, but many Texas Latinos have supported the program since its inception in the days when George W. Bush was governor. White liberals are concentrated in Travis County, home to the state capital and the gigantic University of Texas. Of the 254 counties in Texas, Travis was one of only two with a white majority that voted for John Kerry in the 2004 election. Its mix of college students, high-tech entrepreneurs clustered around Dell headquarters, and connoisseurs of a hot art scene makes this fertile territory for Obama's staple crops, namely the young and the wealthy.75 The Dallas area and its bounty of delegates could dictate the outcome of what's shaping into a tactical brawl between Clinton and Obama. And the Democratic contenders have responded by opening offices, holding volunteer rallies and using surrogates to take their message to North Texas voters. Obama has identified the state's urban centers as his Texas base and must perform well here to stay ahead of Clinton in the delegate race. Clinton, relying heavily on the Hispanic vote to win the state and blunt Obama's momentum, must make further inroads in Dallas or risk having her advantage in other parts of the state nullified. So in an area nationally known as a bottomless ATM, it's Dallas-area votes, not cash, that could determine who wins Texas and ultimately the Democratic nomination.

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The fight for Dallas-area delegates seems to favor Obama, who has strong support among black voters who serve as the base of the local Democratic party.76 Hispanic voters will be important to Clinton in El Paso, the Rio Grande Valley and San Antonio. Draw a triangle, and you have a region that accounted for 78 percent of the Hispanic vote in the 2004 presidential primary. If Clinton is counting on two-thirds of the Texas Hispanic vote, Obama must take some of that support if he hopes to win. Minorities will make up more than half the total Democratic primary vote on March 4, according to experts. Hispanics could account for more than 40 percent of the vote (if turnout is very hight). Blacks, buoyed by Obama's candidacy, might approach a quarter of the vote. In the Democratic primaries so far, Clinton has won the Hispanic vote 2-to-1, Obama has taken the black vote 8-1. Experts predict higher than usual turnout among Hispanics, but say that the real vote change could be urban: African-Americans. Black voters could turn out in much larger numbers than usual. The battle for white Democrats comes on several fronts: Clinton appealing for younger working-class and older suburban women; Obama targeting young people in Austin, Dallas and Houston; President Bill Clinton appealing to moderates in East Texas. East Texas is a largely rural and working-class area that was once a Democratic stronghold. The region also has a significant black population. In East Texas, for example, where the Senate districts typically have three or four delegates each, Clinton hopes to get an edge when the delegates are divided. Still, it is possible that even if Clinton wins the popular vote on March 4 - and declares victory that evening - Obama could actually come away with more delegates.77 The national Democratic ticket has all but turned its back on Texas in almost every presidential general election since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976. The Electoral College math was that Democrats could win without Texas, so why spend money in a very large state? Neither Clinton nor Obama has said whether anything will be different this time. Clinton, in an interview with Texas Monthly, already appeared to be writing Texas off in the fall: "I'd love to carry Texas, but it's usually not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee." 78 Hispanic Voters in Texas Recent polls have found the same trend that foiled Clinton in her string of recent losses has begun to play out in Texas. Her double-digit lead over Obama has plummeted to a virtual tie. Obama has a significant lead over Clinton among blacks and white men. His support among white women is about even with hers. And although she still has an advantage among Latinos — an estimated 25 percent of the electorate and some of her most steadfast supporters — that gap has begun to narrow. Political pundits are reluctant to predict how things would ultimately play out among Texas’ Latino voters. Still, there is endless hashing over how Obama has made considerable gains in such a short time with an electorate whose ties to Clinton date to 1972, when she registered voters along the border with Mexico in support of George McGovern.

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But today’s Hispanic voters are a generally younger, more educated and more affluent electorate than they were two decades ago — qualities that make them impervious to Clinton’s big-name endorsements. For Hispanics in South Texas who live along the border, their ties to Mexico are little more than symbolic. Lydia Carrillo of the Southwest Voters Registration and Education Project said that most Hispanics here had been in this country for generations, and that they were just as concerned about issues involving education, the economy and health care as they were about an immigration overhaul. Veterans groups pointed out that Houston and San Antonio had suffered the second- and third-highest numbers of fatalities from the war in Iraq, after New York, so Obama’s opposition to the war from the beginning resonated strongly here. Those who have managed statewide campaigns in Texas said the state had two important dividing lines: the one that marked the border with Mexico and the one marked by Interstate 10 from El Paso through San Antonio to Houston that divides North Texas from the south. North of the interstate are Texas’s prosperous, racially diverse economic capitals. The south is overwhelmingly Hispanic, and poorer, though the region has enjoyed some growth since the North American Free Trade Agreement turned the Rio Grande Valley into one of the most bustling commercial zones in the world. Political analysts said Clinton’s base of support had been the south, and they added that she remained stronger than Obama here. But because of the complicated way Texas selects its presidential nominee — a contest that is part primary and part caucus, and which assigns delegates to state Senate districts according to turnout during the 2004 presidential contest — the regions with the largest numbers of delegates are in the north, where Obama is expected to receive significant support. Clinton has endorsements from more than 100 Hispanic community leaders, businesspeople and elected officials. She has retained considerable support among Hispanic men. But Clinton’s staunchest support is from Hispanic women, who see their own struggles in hers. Obama has made an aggressive play for some of Clinton’s southern stronghold, with forays into the Rio Grande Valley to talk to students about his plans to offer tax breaks that would defer the costs of their loans, to veterans about building more military hospitals, and to single mothers about improving public schools.79 Clinton campaign officials acknowledge that she needs heavy backing from Latinos, expected to cast more than one in three Democratic ballots. Obama doesn't need to dominate the Hispanic vote in the March 4 primary, but he has to chip away at Clinton's support. There are indications he is doing that, though the state's Hispanic voters are still more familiar with Clinton. Tensions between black and brown Americans - in competition for jobs or minority power status, for example - have been mentioned as one of the reasons Obama has struggled to win Hispanic votes this year. Another factor, widely remarked upon by Latino analysts and ordinary voters, is the matriarchal nature of Hispanic culture, which may favor a female candidate. Clinton is also helped by the history she and her husband have in Texas, dating from their experience in 1972 as organizers for George McGovern's presidential campaign. As the New York senator courts Hispanics, Clinton often refers to her work registering Latino voters that year. "I lived here in San Antonio for three months," she said. "It's where I became addicted to Mexican food and mango ice cream."

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Obama is targeting the estimated 75 percent of Texas Hispanics younger than 40, and Obama's allure to younger voters has proven to be considerable.80 No county in Texas has more Latinos than Harris, where an estimated 15 percent of the 1.8 million registered voters are Hispanic. After losing 11 straight primaries, Clinton must win delegate- rich Texas. Central to her strategy will be maintaining an edge among Hispanics, who have supported her by 2-to-1 margins in earlier primaries. With 26 delegates at stake in the Greater Houston area and Obama attracting votes from many demographic groups in recent primaries, Clinton will need strong support in Harris from Hispanics to save her campaign. It's uncertain, though, how many Latinos will vote. Their turnout has been historically low, but many experts say excitement about the primary among Hispanics locally is unprecedented. In Harris County, Clinton looks to mirror her success in Super Tuesday primaries, when the New York senator won 64 percent of Hispanic voters. In California, where Latino voters made up 30 percent of the voters, 69 percent voted for Clinton and 29 percent for Obama. Lydia Camarillo, vice president of the Southwest Voters Registration and Education Project in San Antonio, predicts Hispanic turnout in Texas could rival the California primary, citing resources the Obama and Clinton campaigns are marshaling in Texas. "It's going to be high," Camarillo said. "If we have 60 percent turnout out of total voters, as in California, I would say the share of the Latino electorate would be 30 to 35 percent."81 Black Voters in Texas Hispanic voters may be a swing factor in the Democratic presidential primary, but an energized black electorate could decide this cliffhanger race. "People should pay attention to the black vote because that's where all the action is," said Rice University political scientist Bob Stein. "But everyone is fixated on the Hispanic vote because that is where Hillary Clinton may be able to hold the line -- but the black vote means a whole lot more." In state after state, exit polls show the Obama wave has wiped out Clinton from getting even close to the black electorate: 87 percent of the black vote in Georgia, for example. In Houston, the city with the nation's fifth-largest black population, there likely will be no exception. In fact, the only question political analysts now are asking is how big of a boost he will get from this potent voter bloc on March 4. Although blacks accounted for 19 percent of the state's registered voters in the 2006 general election, compared with 25 percent for Hispanics, Stein said, Hispanics haven't been able to capitalize on that advantage in the Democratic primary. Stein predicts blacks will represent 30 percent of the vote Tuesday, while Hispanics may account for 25 percent. How much of an advantage Obama will have depends on how motivated black voters will be, says David Bositis, senior political analyst for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank that specializes in black issues.

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"I haven't been to Texas recently, but my guess is one out of every three voters in the Democratic primary in Texas will be black," Bositis said. "And they will be motivated, that is, unless (Obama) comes out and says something nice about George Bush." Black voters exercise a disproportionate influence on the Democratic primaries in Texas. Party rules benefit districts that had high turnout in the last presidential and gubernatorial races. The senatorial districts of Rodney Ellis, of Houston, and Royce West, of Dallas -- mainly black bases -- had high turnout in those two elections. In the two districts alone, Obama could gain 13 delegates. In two South Texas senate districts that had low voter turnout, seven delegates are at stake.82 Nearly a quarter-million people were evacuated to Texas after Hurricane Katrina and its floodwaters left New Orleans devastated in 2005, powerlessness has been a constant theme, exacerbated by their reliance on goodwill and the government for help in starting over again. Angry at the Bush administration for failing them both before and after Katrina, many view the March 4 Democratic presidential primary as a chance to exert some control over their futures. No one knows how many evacuees have registered to vote in Texas or how many will show up at the state's odd mix of primary and caucuses next week, but in interviews across this sprawling city almost everyone indicated an enormous desire to participate -- adding an unknown and potentially pivotal element in the race. Overwhelmingly African American, the evacuees are likely to bolster Obama's already strong support among blacks, who by some estimates could make up as much as 30 percent of the Democratic primary turnout in Texas. In some urban precincts, evacuees could account for 5 to 10 percent of voters. About 100,000 evacuees have permanently settled in Houston. An additional 60,000 or so are in metropolitan Dallas, 60,000 are located around Austin and San Antonio, and 10,000 are sprinkled across this vast state, according to the Texas Health and Human Services Commission.83 Turnout Indicators and Predictions Texans have never seen anything like this stampede to the polls for the March 4 face-off that could prove crucial to Clinton, and provide perhaps the final boost to the all-but-anointed Republican nominee, McCain. Through Wednesday (Feb. 27), in the state’s 15 most populous counties, 805,000 people have voted, compared with 169,000 for the same period in 2004, according to the Texas secretary of state, Phil Wilson. Of those, 601,000 have been Democrats. If the same level of enthusiasm holds true through Tuesday, Wilson projected, 3.3 million people will eventually vote in the primary, easily surpassing the record of more than 2.7 million in 1988 when Vice President (and native son) George Bush was in the race, along with Gov. Michael S. Dukakis of Massachusetts. Early voting began Feb. 19 and ends Friday (Feb. 29). The high turnout has prompted speculation that other Republicans were also trying to cast a strategic Democratic vote. “We’ve heard those anecdotes,” said Wilson, the secretary of state, adding, “We wouldn’t know why until later when we can go back into voting histories.” “All we know,” he said, “is that a lot of people are voting.” Experts are trying to figure out what that surge may portend.

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In the state as a whole, early primary voters account for about 40 percent of the eventual vote total, said Kelly Fero, a leading Democratic strategist who is not working for either candidate. But in heavily Hispanic South Texas, where Clinton is favored, the proportion is reversed, Fero said. If the Democratic momentum is moving in Obama’s direction, as polls suggest, the votes Clinton has been able to bag early will prove particularly important, he said. Lydia Caramillo, vice president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project in San Antonio, said the Latino vote was split, with older voters clearly siding with Clinton, younger voters gravitating to Obama and those ages 30 to 45 “trying to decide which way to go.” “This is an election none of us understand,” Caramillo said. Max Beauregard, a professional demographer at Houston Community College and a Democratic strategist also not working for either candidate, said the Hispanic vote in Houston might not prove as potent as some had suggested. In the two most recent statewide elections in Harris County, where Hispanics make up more a third of the population, Beauregard said, the percentage of Hispanic voters dropped to 10 percent in 2006 from 12 percent in 2002. The Texas women’s vote is also considered crucial. Older white women are Clinton’s mainstay, nationwide results to date have shown. But, said Richard Murray, a professor of political science at the University of Houston, “women are younger in Texas than in Ohio and Pennsylvania.” And studies show that Texas women rank at the low end of voter participation, said Elizabeth Crum, a spokeswoman for the Institute for Women’s Policy Research in Washington. In the Congressional elections of 1998 and the presidential election of 2000, Ms. Crum said, less than 42 percent of registered Texas women voted, ranking them 49th out of 50 nationwide.84 Texas Primary History If history ruled, the Texas Democratic presidential primary would shake out as a sure win for Clinton. Bill Clinton handily carried the 1992 primary on his way to the White House, and the two have enthusiastically worked Texas byways since they registered voters and organized support for George McGovern in the summer of 1972, when Barack Obama was turning 11. Much has changed since Bill Clinton drew more than 65 percent of nearly 1.5 million votes in the 1992 primary. At the time, Democrats held most statewide executive offices and one of the two U.S. Senate seats. By 1999, Republicans held every statewide office, and Democrats have not won a statewide race since. Also, the state has grown more urban, and the share of Hispanic residents has increased. Bill Clinton could stump Texas with established elected leaders such as the late Gov. Ann Richards, tapping into their connections. There's no established Democratic leader in Texas now for either candidate to lean on during the last stretch of the Texas race. Historically, Texas Democrats have favored the person who went on to win the party's presidential nod. Past Texas primary winners include Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980, Walter Mondale when the party held caucuses only in 1984, Michael Dukakis in 1988, Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.85

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Past Primary Results from Texas

1992 Republican Primary Bush (R) 556,280 (70%) Buchanan (R) 190,572 (24%) Uncommitted 27,936 (4%) Other 22,358 (3%)

1992 Democratic Primary Clinton (D) 972,151 (66%) Tsongas (D) 285,191 (19%) Brown (D) 118,923 (8%) Other 66,795 (5%) Kerrey (D) 20,298 (1%) Harkin (D) 19,617 (1%)

1996 Republican Primary Dole (R) 567,164 (56%) Buchanan (R) 217,974 (21%) Forbes (R) 130,938 (13%) Other 103,727 (10%)

2000 Republican Primary Bush (R) 986,416 (88%) McCain (R) 80,082 (7%) Keyes (R) 43,518 (4%) Other 16,741 (2%)

2000 Democratic Primary Gore (D) 631,428 (80%) Bradley (D) 128,564 (16%) LaRouche (D) 26,898 (3%)

2004 Democratic Primary Kerry (D) 563,237 (67%) Edwards (D) 120,413 (14%) Dean (D) 40,035 (5%) Sharpton (D) 31,020 (4%) Lieberman (D) 25,245 (3%) Other 59,281 (7%)

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14th District Republican Primary – Rep. Ron Paul (R–Texas) For the first time in years, Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) is campaigning like he has something to lose in the 14th district GOP primary Tuesday - and Republican officials on the ground along the Lone Star State's Gulf Coast say he just might. Several prominent, local elected officials - including some powerful Republican insiders - are backing Paul's challenger, Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peden. Peden is depending on shoe leather, newspaper endorsements and the support of a well-known Houston talk-radio host to overcome the barrage of TV and radio ads being run by a Paul campaign flush with cash courtesy of the following he developed during his quixotic bid for the GOP presidential nomination. Ironically, it's the publicity Paul garnered during a presidential campaign that is still officially under way that could sink him on Tuesday - and the Congressman recently shifted his focus to his House re-election bid in an open acknowledgment that he is vulnerable. Still, most Republican insiders in the sprawling, GOP- leaning Gulf Coast-area district acknowledge that a Peden victory remains more of a possibility than a likelihood.86 Voters in the 14th District get to choose between Rep. Paul, the odd man out at one GOP presidential debate after another, with his call for a return to the gold standard, an end to the drug war and a radically shrunken federal government; and a challenger who has forced him to divert time and money into protecting his seat by painting him as ineffective, overly idealistic and out of touch with local issues. The challenger, Peden, portrays himself as everything the incumbent isn't: a loyal, mainstream conservative Republican. Dr. Paul is determined to keep his seat, pleading for support in part to ensure that critics can't paint a loss as a rejection of his ideas. Dr. Paul, a 72-year-old obstetrician, served eight years in Congress in the 1970s and 1980s, giving up the seat to run for the Senate. In 1988 he ran for president as the Libertarian nominee. Voters returned him to Congress in 1996, but his ambitions persisted. He's spent the past year crisscrossing America, railing against foreign entanglements, demanding adherence to what he sees as the Constitution's original limits on government, and rallying enthusiastic supporters. Peden, a CPA and a councilman in Friendswood, is 30 years younger than the incumbent. He's energetic, engaging and a self-described "Christian conservative."87

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RHODE ISLAND



Rhode Island Semi-open primary

Registered Republicans and Democrats can only vote in their party's primary. Unaffiliated voters can vote in either contest. If an unaffiliated voter votes in a party primary they will be considered a member of that party until they file for disaffiliation.

21 in the primary



17 in the primary

17 district level 3 RNC members Total: 20

There are 8 delegates in CD 1, and 9 in CD two. Candidates must reach a 15% statewide vote threshold to be eligible for delegates. However, after those under 15% statewide have been eliminated, the proportion of delegates allocated in each CD is based on the candidate’s CD-wide vote total.

Introduction Rhode Island, the nation's smallest state (in square miles), rarely gets much attention from presidential candidates.88 In modern times, Rhode Island has never figured in the primary system that decides the major party presidential nominees. The state's primary was always held too late - by March the campaigns are usually effectively over. In past elections, Rhode Island's orphan presidential primary has drawn scant attention; candidates rarely visited or spent much money on organization and advertising here. The event was known for having among the nation's lowest turnout of any presidential primary.89 State election officials said Feb. 26 that they expect a massive turnout for Rhode Island's presidential primary on March 4, given the close Democratic race between Clinton and Obama. Secretary of State A. Ralph Mollis estimated that roughly 30 percent of the state's 660,000 registered voters could cast ballots, or approximately 180,000 people. During the last seriously contested primary here in 2000, about 82,000 residents voted.90 Unaffiliated voters can participate in the Rhode Island primary by declaring for one party, if only for the time it takes to vote. They can become unaffiliated on the way out of the polling place.91 A surge of newly registered voters in Rhode Island could play a major role in the state's March 4 presidential primary.

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In the last year, more than 43,000 new voters registered in Rhode Island, including about 21,000 who signed up in the four months before the Feb. 2 deadline, according to a Providence Journal analysis. That's compared to about 12,400 new voters who registered in the four months before the 2004 state presidential primary cycle. About 6,800 of the voters who registered in the last four months are Democrats, 1,900 are Republicans and 12,000 are independents, who can vote in either party's primary. The new voters this year are also young voters. About 20,000 are between the ages of 18 and 29, the Journal reported.92 Democrats in Rhode Island Clinton's lead has held up in Rhode Island, even as her support has waned in the other three states holding primaries and caucuses on Tuesday. A Brown University poll released Feb. 11 found 36 percent of likely Democratic primary voters backing Clinton, compared with 28 percent for Obama. And a Rasmussen Reports poll released conducted on Feb. 23 found Clinton with a 15-point edge.93 Rhode Island is often called "Clinton Country" because the Clintons are well-liked here and have visited frequently. Most of the state's top Democrats have endorsed Clinton, including Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Rep. Jim Langevin.94 Attorney General Patrick Lynch and Rep. Patrick Kennedy are the two key Obama supporters in Rhode Island.95 Former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who lost a bid for re-election in 2006 and disaffiliated from the Republican Party the following year. Chafee has announced he's supporting Obama.96 Obama will headline a rally at Rhode Island College on Saturday (March 1), three days before the Rhode Island primary. He's the latest presidential candidate to campaign in the Ocean State. His rival Clinton visited last weekend, and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, was here on Thursday. Their daughter, Chelsea, spoke Friday afternoon at Roger Williams University.97 Obama is outspending Clinton on Rhode Island television, $156,000 to $43,000. According to a recent review of television records by the Providence Journal, Obama booked 640 commercials to Clinton's 160 in the 2 1/2 weeks before the March 4 primaries.98 There is a statewide gap in campaign contributions, with individuals from Rhode Island giving nearly $487,794 to Clinton and almost $237,999 to Obama, through the end of January.99 Republicans in Rhode Island McCain easily won the 2000 Rhode Island GOP presidential primary and can be expected to win the March 4 primary here convincingly. Two Republican presidential candidates, McCain and Huckabee, have visited the state recently.100

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McCain's Rhode Island supporters include Gov. Don Carcieri, House Minority Leader Robert Watson and Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian. On, Feb. 25, Huckabee campaigned in Rhode Island; Huckabee said he was looking for support from conservative Republicans in Rhode Island to help him beat McCain. Rhode Island Republicans have long supported political moderates, but Huckabee said he wants to attract votes from more conservative members who oppose abortion and strongly support gun ownership.101 In February, former Republican U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee - for whom McCain campaigned in 2006 - announced he is supporting Obama for president. Some of Chafee's longtime Republican supporters were not happy about the endorsement, especially its timing just before McCain’s Feb. 14 visit to the state.102 Profile of Rhode Island Rhode Island, which is holding its presidential primaries on March 4, had a 2007 population of 1.1 million. The state has a higher percentage of people with a bachelor’s degree or more and a higher median household income than the nation as a whole. About 64 percent of Rhode Island’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, not statistically different from the national rate.

Selected Characteristics Rhode Island U.S.

Median age 38.2 36.4 Women 51.6% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 79.6% 66.4% Black alone 6.3% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 11.0% 14.8% Median household income $51,814 $48,451 Foreign born 12.6% 12.5% Persons below poverty 11.1% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 29.6% 27.0%

Median home value $295,700 $185,200103 It only takes about an hour to drive across Rhode Island, the nation's smallest state by area. But a million people live in the state, making it the second most densely populated behind New Jersey. Providence, the state's population center and its capital, was founded by Roger Williams, who was cast out of Massachusetts for religious reasons and went on to start the First Baptist Church in America on what is now the city's wealthy East Side. But the dominant faith here now is Catholicism, the religion of more than 60 percent of the state's residents. (Clinton has won the Catholic vote in most states so far.) Providence's East Side is home to the Ivy League Brown University and the world-renowned Rhode Island School of Design. The Gilded-Age resort town of Newport, at the entrance to Narragansett Bay in the south, is still a destination for yachters and the super-rich. The state's voters are largely working class. Many grew up in families that immigrated in the past century from Italy or Portugal. There's also a large group of people with French-Canadian

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ancestry who came to work in Rhode Island's mill towns during the Industrial Revolution. Most of those mills closed decades ago. Union support is key for any politician hoping to do well here. Rhode Island's aging population also wields a great deal of voting power, and issues that resonate with the elderly, such as health care, are important.104 Rhode Island has one of the largest populations of senior citizens per capita of any state.105 Rhode Island is heavily Democratic -- registered Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 3 to 1, although unaffiliated voters outnumber them both combined. There are so few Republicans that the state's only political poll, run by Brown University, ignores Republican races because there aren't enough voters to get accurate results. Rhode Islanders often elect colorful public officials -- some of whom turn out to be corrupt. The FBI and federal prosecutors are currently investigating possible misdeeds at the Statehouse. Former Providence Mayor Vincent "Buddy" Cianci spent several years in federal prison for corruption before coming home last year -- to a warm welcome and a cushy gig on talk radio.106

Past Primary Results from Rhode Island

1992 Republican Primary Bush (R) 9,853 (63%) Buchanan (R) 4,967 (32%) Uncommitted 444 (3%) Duke (R) 326 (2%)

1992 Democratic Primary Tsongas (D) 26,825 (53%) Clinton (D) 10, 762 (21%) Brown (D) 9,541 (19%) Other 2,090 (4%) Uncommitted 703 (1%) Kerrey (D) 469 (1%) Harkin (D) 319 (1%)

1996 Republican Primary

Dole (R) 9,664 (64%) Alexander (R) 2,859 (19%) Other 2,486 (17%)

2000 Republican Primary McCain (R) 21,754 (60%) Bush (R) 13,170 (36%) Other 1,196 (3%)

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2000 Democratic Primary

Gore (D) 26,801 (57%) Bradley (D) 19,000 (41%) Other 1,043 (2%)

2004 Democratic Primary Kerry (D) 25,466 (71%) Edwards (D) 6,635 (19%) Dean (D) 1,425 (4%) Kucinich (D) 1,054 (3%) Uncommitted 415 (1%) Other 764 (2%)

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Endnotes 1 Associated Press Newswires, “Vermont could play a role in Democratic nomination,” 7 February 2008. 2 Associated Press Newswires, “Once an asterisk in presidential politics, Vt. gets attention,” 12 February 2008. 3 Associated Press Newswires, “Obama enlists women's help, Clinton opens another Vt. Office,” 26 February 2008. 4 The Burlington Free Press, “Poll: McCain, Obama ahead of rivals in Vt.” 27 February 2008. 5 The Burlington Free Press, “Vermont Republicans expect big turnout by the Democrats,” 25 February 2008. 6 The Burlington Free Press, “Vermont Republicans expect big turnout by the Democrats,” 25 February 2008. 7 AP, “Clinton, Obama campaigns square off for Vermont primary,” 20 February 2008. 8 The Burlington Free Press, “Primary information,” 26 February 2008. 9 Associated Press Newswires, “Obama enlists women's help, Clinton opens another Vt. Office,” 26 February 2008. 10 AP, “Chelsea Clinton stumps for mom in Vermont,” February 29, 2008. 11 The Burlington Free Press, “Clinton boosts Vt. campaign effort,” 19 February 2008. 12 Associated Press Newswires, “Once an asterisk in presidential politics, Vt. gets attention,” 12 February 2008. 13 Associated Press Newswires, “Once an asterisk in presidential politics, Vt. gets attention,” 12 February 2008. 14 Associated Press Newswires, “Once an asterisk in presidential politics, Vt. gets attention,” 12 February 2008. 15 Associated Press Newswires, “Memo to candidates: Here's what you need to know about March 4 primary states,” 29 February 2008. 16 The Burlington Free Press, “McCain makes campaign stop in Vermont today,” 14 February 2008. 17 The Burlington Free Press, “Vermonters drawn in by longshot bid,” 26 February 2008. 18 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 19 Associated Press Newswires, “Memo to candidates: Here's what you need to know about March 4 primary states,” 29 February 2008. 20 Associated Press Newswires, “Memo to candidates: Here's what you need to know about March 4 primary states,” 29 February 2008. 21 Associated Press Newswires, “Election officials say many registering to vote before primary,” 27 February 2008. 22 Associated Press Newswires, “Memo to candidates: Here's what you need to know about March 4 primary states,” 29 February 2008. 23 Akron Beacon Journal (OH), “PRIMARY WHIRLWIND SWEEPS UP OHIOANS,” 24 February 2008. 24 USA TODAY, “Unions help steer Dems' Ohio race,” Feb. 27, 2008. 25 The Columbus Dispatch, “Clinton has tiny lead on Obama in Ohio fundraising,” 24 February 2008. 26 The Blade (MCT), “McCain vows to fix job, foreclosure woes while campaigning in Ohio,” 26 February 2008. 27 The Blade (MCT), “McCain embarks on Ohio vote quest,” 20 February 2008. 28 Associated Press Newswires, “Candidates pledging to help ailing autoworkers in Ohio,” 22 February 2008. 29 The Columbus Dispatch, “GOP RALLIES IN COLUMBUS, CINCINNATI,” 27 February 2008. 30 Chicago Tribune, “Trade jabs: Clinton, Obama do,” 25 February 2008. 31 The Blade (MCT), “Obama keeps pressure on foe in Ohio stops,” 24 February 2008. 32 The Columbus Dispatch, “Obama's surge cutting into Clinton's Ohio lead,” 26 February 2008. 33 The Wall Street Journal, “Democratic Rivals Hear Ohio's Ills, Set Out Plans for Mortgages, Jobs,” 25 February 2008.

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34 Chicago Tribune, “Trade jabs: Clinton, Obama do,” 25 February 2008. 35 The Blade (MCT), “Obama keeps pressure on foe in Ohio stops,” 24 February 2008. 36 Associated Press Newswires, “Adwatch: Clinton releases 4 new ads in Ohio, Texas,” 23 February 2008. 37 The Wall Street Journal, “Democratic Rivals Hear Ohio's Ills, Set Out Plans for Mortgages, Jobs,” 25 February 2008. 38 Chicago Tribune, “Trade jabs: Clinton, Obama do,” 25 February 2008. 39 Associated Press Newswires, “Angry Clinton rips Obama as Ohio primary campaign intensifies,” 23 February 2008. 40 The Columbus Dispatch, “Democrats focus on economy,” 24 February 2008. 41 The Washington Post, “In Toledo, Promises Of Change Ring Hollow,” 24 February 2008. 42 The Wall Street Journal, “Democratic Rivals Hear Ohio's Ills, Set Out Plans for Mortgages, Jobs,” 25 February 2008. 43 The Washington Post, “In Toledo, Promises Of Change Ring Hollow,” 24 February 2008. 44 The Columbus Dispatch, “Democrats focus on economy,” 24 February 2008. 45 The Washington Post, “In Toledo, Promises Of Change Ring Hollow,” 24 February 2008. 46 The Columbus Dispatch, “In Ohio, Obama deals with speech flap, jobs,” 19 February 2008. 47 The Boston Globe, “In Ohio, Clinton counts on the `economy' voters,” 23 February 2008. 48 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 49 The Plain Dealer, “Ohio's makeup favors Clinton,” 17 February 2008. 50 Financial Times, “Clinton's lead fadesin blue-collar Ohio,” 23 February 2008. 51 Dayton Daily News, “Delegate math makes Ohio a complex battleground,” 22 February 2008. 52 Dayton Daily News, “Dems focusing on northern Ohio,” 22 February 2008. 53 Roll Call, “Can Kucinich Go Home Again?” 25 February 2008. 54 The Wall Street Journal, “Campaign '08: Long Shots Could Pay High Price,” 22 February 2008. 55 Associated Press Newswires, “Analysis: Clinton appears on ropes, badly needs Texas, Ohio wins,” 20 February 2008. 56 Associated Press Newswires, “Bill Clinton says Texas, Ohio could be make-or-break for Hillary,” 21 February 2008. 57 Austin American-Statesman, “Democrats primed for Texas duel,” 17 February 2008. 58 AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN, “Candidates go, ads remain as fight for Texas heats up,” February 26, 2008. 59 Houston Chronicle, “What about November?” Feb. 27, 2008. 60 AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN, “Candidates go, ads remain as fight for Texas heats up,” February 26, 2008. 61 AP, “Obama Says Clinton Ad Plays on Fears,” Feb. 29, 2008. 62 The Dallas Morning News, “McCain says Texas campaign more about unifying the GOP,” 20 February 2008. 63 The Dallas Morning News, “McCain's Texas task: Woo the base, set the pace,” 29 February 2008. 64 Houston Chronicle, “McCain claims Texas a vital part of his campaign,” 20 February 2008. 65 Houston Chronicle, “Democratic primary also a GOP one,” 25 February 2008. 66 The Fort Worth Star-Telegram, “Some area Republicans try to help party by faking left, going right,” 24 February 2008. 67 Houston Chronicle, “Texas delegate system makes the candidates choose their battles,” Feb. 9, 2008; Associated Press Newswires, “Clinton May Challenge Texas Vote Rules,” 29 February 2008. 68 AP, “Texas Rules Could Favor Obama,” Feb. 21, 2008. 69 AP, “Texas Dems Pick Delegates Two Ways,” Feb 13, 2008. 70 San Antonio Express-News, “Anatomy of the 'Texas Two-Step,'” 24 February 2008. 71 National Journal, “Texas Two-Step,” Feb. 25, 2008. 72 AP, “Texas Rules Could Favor Obama,” Feb. 21, 2008. 73 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006).

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74 NY Times, “Pieces of Texas Turn Primary Into a Puzzle,” February 26, 2008. 75 Time, “A Fight for the Texas Democrats,” 3 March 2008. 76 The Dallas Morning News, “N. Texans could decide primary Delegate-rich region thrown into Democratic spotlight,” 18 February 2008. 77 The Dallas Morning News, “In Texas, it's two races in one,” 17 February 2008. 78 Houston Chronicle, “What about November?” Feb. 27, 2008. 79 NY Times, “Texas Hispanics Face a Tough Choice in Primary,” February 25, 2008. 80 The Baltimore Sun, “HISPANICS HOLD KEY IN TEXAS PRIMARY,” 24 February 2008. 81 Houston Chronicle, “Hispanics hold key votes as Dems race for the win,” 23 February 2008. 82 Houston Chronicle (MCT), “Black voters crucial to Texas' primary battle: CAMPAIGN 2008,” 27 February 2008. 83 The Washington Post, “For Katrina Evacuees, A Chance to Be Heard,” 25 February 2008. 84 NY Times, “Texas on Pace for Record Voter Turnout,” February 29, 2008. 85 Austin American-Statesman, “Democrats primed for Texas duel,” 17 February 2008. 86 Roll Call, “Paul Scrambles to Avert Primary Defeat,” 28 February 2008. 87 The Dallas Morning News, “Same party, but apart on issues,” 24 February 2008. 88 Associated Press Newswires, “R.I. voting officials predict heavy turnout for primary,” 26 February 2008. 89 The Providence Journal, “Unlike years past, R.I.'s primary may matter in '08,” 16 January 2008. 90 Associated Press Newswires, “R.I. voting officials predict heavy turnout for primary,” 26 February 2008. 91 The Hartford Courant, “UPBEAT DESPITE DEFEATS,” 25 February 2008. 92 Associated Press Newswires, “R.I. sees surge in new voter registration ahead of big primary,” 16 February 2008. 93 The Providence Journal, “Top Cranston pols favor Clinton, but some having second thoughts,” 27 February 2008. 94 Associated Press Newswires, “Presidential campaign begins in Rhode Island,” 13 February 2008. 95 Associated Press Newswires, “Rhode Island Attorney General Lynch endorses Obama,” 9 February 2008. 96 Associated Press Newswires, “McCain visits Rhode Island ahead of presidential primary,” 14 February 2008. 97 Associated Press Newswires, “Obama campaign releases details of his visit,” 29 February 2008. 98 The Hartford Courant, “UPBEAT DESPITE DEFEATS,” 25 February 2008. 99 The Providence Journal, “Top Cranston pols favor Clinton, but some having second thoughts,” 27 February 2008. 100 Associated Press Newswires, “Obama campaign releases details of his visit,” 29 February 2008. 101 Associated Press Newswires, “Huckabee visits Ocean State as he keeps longshot candidacy alive,” 25 February 2008. 102 The Providence Journal, “CAMPAIGN 2008 - McCain swoops through R.I.,” 15 February 2008. 103 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 104 Associated Press Newswires, “Memo to candidates: Here's what you need to know about March 4 primary states,” 29 February 2008. 105 Associated Press Newswires, “Presidential campaign begins in Rhode Island,” 13 February 2008. 106 Associated Press Newswires, “Memo to candidates: Here's what you need to know about March 4 primary states,” 29 February 2008.

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