mari log - balticom forum -

marilog - BALTICOM Forum - Port-related Transport Corridors and Sustainable Regional Development

University of Hamburg, Institute for Geography, 6th of Apr. 2000

B A L T I C O M

A Restructuring in the Baltic Sea Region

1. Development of framework conditions and regional restructuring towards regional cohesion in the BSR

2. BSR-integration process3. Sustainable links. Strings shall enable spatial cohesion by means of environment friendly transport

B Country Reports World Trade

Information Technologies

1. Germany2. Scandinavia3. Russia and the three Baltic States4. Poland


B A L T I C O M


Country Agriculture Ressources Capital Labour Skills Main exportcommoditygroups

RCA Trend RCA Trend RCA Trend RCA Trend RCA Trend

Estonia - -1 + 0 - -1 -1 - +2 Oil (23%), wood(14%)

Latvia - -1 + -1 - 0 +1 - - 0 Oil (41%), wood(23%)

Lithuania - 0 + -2 - -1 + +2 - - 0 Clothing (23%),oil (10%)

Poland + -1 + -1 - +1 + 0 - +1 Clothing (11%),vehicles (8%)

Russia - - 0 ++ 0 +1 - - -1 - - 0 Oil (32%), non-ferrous metals(20%)

Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and exports

Source: EBRD, Transition Report 1999, reduced by some countries and different notation for trend.


B A L T I C O M


Country 1994 1997Trade withEU

Trade withTE

Tade withRoW

Trade withEU

Trade withTE

Trade withRoW

Estonia 0,62 0,29 0,09 0,64 0,28 0,08

Latvia 0,68 0,23 0,08 0,66 0,25 0,09

Lithuania 0,58 0,38 0,04 0,47 0,50 0,03

Poland 0,76 0,15 0,09 0,71 0,22 0,07

Russia 0,42 0,34 0,25 0,38 0,38 0,23

Direction of export trade 1994 and 1997

TE= Transition Economies; RoW= Rest of World. Source: EBRD, Transition Report 1999.


B A L T I C O M


Country 93 94 95 96 97*Germany 9,79 10,01 10,11 10,50 10,58

Denmark 42,34 43,88 44,12 42,44 44,22

Estonia 75,77 71,80 70,21 72,51 68,95

Finland 41,33 40,93 43,07 41,96 42,09

Latvia 53,98 56,46 64,25 58,57

Lithuania 44,94 50,17 46,94 49,52 59,73

Poland 47,41 45,48 48,23 47,39 60,26

Norway 35,54 36,72 37,03 36,03 34,61

Russia 31,67 21,41 21,04 20,34 24,23

Sweden 36,92 38,21 38,12 36,74 32,33

BS-regional embeddedness(% share of trade with BSR in relation to total trade)

* First and second quarter, only, IMF (1993-1997c): Direction ofTrade Statistics Quarterly. Washington D.C., own calculations.


B A L T I C O M


Share of trade in total BSR-trade (%) Memory items:Country 1993 1994 1995 1996 GNP (Mill. US$)* GNP/Capita* Pop. (Mill.)

Germany 33,12 31,86 32,88 33,16 2100110 28260 82

Sweden 16,53 16,96 15,92 16,50 227751 26220 9

Denmark 12,78 13,64 12,19 11,63 161107 32500 5

Russia 10,02 10,01 10,20 9,59 479531 2740 147

Norway 9,17 8,89 9,11 9,47 153403 36090 4,37

Finland 8,30 8,30 9,04 9,14 116170 24080 5

Poland 8,44 7,85 8,04 7,78 135290 3590 39

Estonia 0,63 1,08 1,13 1,29 4675 3330 1

Lithuania 0,50 0,84 0,89 0,80 5396 2430 2

Latvia 0,50 0,57 0,61 0,63 9387 2230 4

Importance in BSR trade

* Data refer to 1997. IMF (1993-1997c): Direction of Trade Statistics Quarterly. Washington D.C.,Weltentwicklungsbericht 1999, own calculations.


B A L T I C O M


Railways Roads1. Monolithic organisational structures still exist. State railways arestill effectively operated as government departments. Fewcommercial freedoms exist to determine prices or investments. Thereis no private sector involvement. Cross-subsidisation of passengerservice obligations with freight service revenues is undertaken.

1. There is a minimal degree of decentralisation, and nocommercialisation has taken place. All regulatory, road managementand ressource allocation functions are centralised at ministerial level.New investments and road maintenance financing are dependent oncentral budget allocations. Road user charges are based on criteriaother than relative costs imposed on the network and road use. Roadconstruction and maintenance are undertaken by public consultationor accoutability take place in the preparation of road projects.

2. New laws distance rail operations from the state, but there areweak commercial objectives. There is no budgetary funding of publicservice obligations in place. Organisational structures are still overlybased on geographic or functional areas. Ancillary businesses havebeen separated but there is little divestment. There has been minimalencouragement of private sector involvement. Initial businessplanning has been undertaken, but the targets are general andtentative.Russia (2+), Lithuania (2+)

2. There is a moderate degree of decentralisation, and initial stepshave been taken in commercialisation. A road / highways agency hasbeen created. Initial steps have been undertaken in ressourceallocation and public procurement methods. Road user charges arebased on vehicle and fuel taxes but are only indirectly related to roaduse. A road fund has been established but it is dependent on centralbudget allocations. Road construction and maintenance is undertakenby corporatised public entities, with some private sectorparticipation. There is minimal public consultation / participation andaccountability in the preparation of road projects.Latvia (2+), Lithuania (2+), Russia (2+)

3. New laws have been passed that restructure the railways andintroduce commercial orientation. Freight and passenger serviceshave been separated, and marketing groups have been grafted ontotraditional structures. Some divestment of ancillary businesses hastaken place. Some budgetary compensation is available for passengerservices. Business plans have been designed with clear investmentand rehabilitation targets, but funding is unsecured. There is someprivate sector involvement in rehabilitation and / or maintenance.Latvia (3+), Poland (3+)

3. There is a fairly large degree of decentralisation. Regulation,resource allocation, and administrative functions have been clearlyseparated from maintenance and operations of the public roadnetwork. Road user charges are based on vehicle and fuel taxes andfairly directly related to road use. A law has been passed allowing forthe provision and operation of public roads by private companiesunder negotiated commercial contracts. There is private sectorparticipation either in road maintenance works allocated viacompetitive tendering or through a concession to finance, operate andmaintain at least a section of the highway network. There is limitedpublic consultation and / or participation and accountability in thepreparation of road projects.Poland (3+)

4. New laws have been passed to fully commercialise the railways.Separate internal profit centers have been created for passenger andfreight (actual or imminent). Extensive market freedoms exist to settariffs and investments. Medium-term business plans are underimplementation. Ancillary industries have been divested. Policy hasbeen developed to promote private rail transport operations.Estonia (4)

4. There is a large degree of decentralisation of road administration,decision-making, resource allocation and management according togovernment responsibility and functional road classification. Atansparent methodology is used to allocate road expenditures. A trackrecord has been established in implementing competitiveprocurement rules for road design, construction, maintenance andoperations. There is large-scale private sector participation inconstruction, operations and maintenance directly and throughpublic-private partnership arrangements. There is substantial publicconsultation and / or participation and accountability in thepreparation of road projects.

4+. Railway law has been passed allowing for separation ofinfrastructure form operations, and / or freight from passengeroperations, and / or private train operations. There is private sectorparticipation in ancillary services and track maintenance. A railregulator has been established. Access pricing has been implemented.Plans have been drawn up for a full divestment and transfer of assetownership, including infrastructure and rolling stock.

4+. A fully decentralised road administration has been established,with decision-making, resource allocation and management acrossroad networks and different levels of government. Commercialisedroad maintenance operations are undertaken through open andcompetitive tendering by private construction companies. Legislationhas been passed allowing for road user charges to fully reflect costsof road use and associated factors, such as congestion, accidents andpollution. There is widespread private sector participation in allaspects of road provision directly and through public-privatepartnership arrangements. Full public consultation is undertaken inthe approval process for new road projects.


B A L T I C O M


Railway labour productivity (1989=100)*

Country 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Estonia 96,1 92,2 53,1 55,0 47,7 50,8 55,0 74,2 98,6

Latvia 93 82,5 58,5 54,0 48,8 50,2 65,6 75,4 72,0

Lithuania 90,3 75,2 51,2 50,7 35,4 32,2 35,6 37,9 36,0

Poland 83,0 71,1 68,5 76,2 78,4 83,0 84,4 87,4 na

Russia 99,5 105,6 89,8 75,4 57,7 56,8 54,6 58,6 60,9

* Number of traffic units (passenger kms plus freight tonne-kms) / total number of railway employees, EBRD


B A L T I C O M


Modal split in BSR-trade (tsd. t) Modal split in BSR-trade (%)1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994

Vessels 110106 121614 139369 Vessels 73,42 70,82 66,85Road 12510 15527 28639 Road 8,34 9,04 13,74Rail 24081 31548 36514 Rail 16,06 18,37 17,51IWW 3265 3040 3958 IWW 2,18 1,77 1,90Total 149962 171729 208480 Total 100,00 100,00 100,00

Source: OECD, own calculations


B A L T I C O M


Modal split in imports from BSR-countries (tsd. t)Vessels Road Rail IWW

1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994D 48599 49118 51326 3075 5031 17628 5877 11113 13590 2402 2425 3157Dk 14567 18723 22860 4225 4085 4741 1207 1346 1746 0 0 0EST 503 441 1009 144 295 83 0 0 0 0 0 0FIN 17547 20082 25500 808 969 1188 238 544 2728 172 0 169LT 0 0 2133 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0LV 1011 146 290 2 11 0 0 0 0 0 3 0N 4668 5316 5707 397 589 32 604 14402 14685 136 120 196PL 3524 3414 3333 764 930 547 349 2153 1256 316 252 133S 19687 24374 27211 2551 2625 1868 1990 2509 239 240 303

Source: OECD, own calculations.


B A L T I C O M


Modal split in exports from BSR-countries (tsd. t)

Vessels Road Rail IWW

1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994

D 17485 17473 20882 2561 2850 8781 2046 3597 3217 356 252 163

Dk 12331 8973 10335 4225 6217 8216 783 835 1137 126 81 193

EST 1552 2428 3052 119 171 49 0 0 0 22 0 8

FIN 13237 14001 16229 1299 1878 8721 261 224 232 11 11 62

LT 2542 2114 1833 3 2 2 0 105 95 5 6 4

LV 4889 5168 5769 1 2 3 0 0 2 105 6 16

N 39790 29708 29884 304 357 457 547 660 726

PL 8697 9601 12605 1679 2015 118 3589 8581 10651 2265 2321 3013

S 19383 23023 25149 2319 2035 2292 2820 3277 3760

Source: OECD, own calculations.


B A L T I C O M


Nature of traffic in % share of totalName of Port General cargo Dry & liq. bulk Oil / oilprod.

Lübeck 93,1 6,9

Turku 88,8 11,2 47,8

Helsingborg 80,6 19,4 9,1

Kiel 77,4 22,6

Helsinki 73,6 26,4 17,9

Riga 60,6 39,4

Malmö 56 44 0,2

Stockholm 55,5 44,5 22,4

Oslo 53,8 46,2

St. Petersburg 53,7 46,3

Hamburg 52,6 47,4 29,7

Gdynia 51,1 48,9

Copenhagen 44,9 55,1

Rostock 43,7 56,3 23,3

Gothenburg 38 62 60,5

Tallinn 35,9 64,1

Szczecin-Swinoujscie 17,4 82,6 18,5

Gdansk 9,9 90,1 20,5

Source: ISL: Shipping Statistics Yearbook 1998.

Total cargo traffic, foreign and transit traffic (in 1000t)Name of Port 1992 1997 Name of Port Growth of totalcargo traffic(1992-1997)Hamburg 63422 74977 Rostock 232Gothenburg 21182 26338 Tallinn 198Lübeck 17499 24170 Stockholm 149Rostock 8106 18813 Kiel 148Gdansk 20175 17312 Helsinki 142Tallinn 8632 17071 Gdynia 141Szczecin-Swinoujscie 11513 14919 Oslo 139St. Petersburg 12235 11696 Lübeck 138Riga .. 11214 Turku 133Helsinki 7080 10086 Szczecin-Swinoujscie 130Helsingborg 8195 9223 Gothenburg 124Gdynia 6270 8845 Hamburg 118Copenhagen 8190 8309 Malmö 114Kiel 3312 4898 Helsingborg 113Stockholm 2988 4444 Copenhagen 101Oslo 3164 4406 St. Petersburg 96Malmö 3541 4051 Gdansk 86Turku 2360 3131

Source: ISL: Shipping Statistics Yearbook 1998, own calculationsItalics are foreign, domestic & transit traffic


B A L T I C O M


Total container traffic (total containers handled)Name of port 1992 1997 Name of port Growth 1992-1997Hamburg 2268855 3352425 Gdansk 808Gothenburg 369973 530529 Kiel 722Helsinki 229281 330313 St. Petersburg 318St. Petersburg 73620 234355 Tallinn 228Oslo 106095 183009 Rostock 219Gdynia 97894 177898 Gdynia 182Copenhagen 145029 160074 Oslo 172Helsingborg 148921 147938 Hamburg 148Riga .. 132516 Helsinki 144Lübeck 72560 77926 Gothenburg 143Tallinn 23924 54585 Malmö 127Stockholm 24550 30786 Lübeck 127Malmö 23514 29863 Stockholm 125Kiel 3552 25638 Copenhagen 110Turku 16598 17484 Turku 105Szczecin-Swinoujscie 11244 5920 Helsingborg 99Rostock 1709 3737 Szczecin-Swinoujscie 53Gdansk 330 2668

Value: 1993Source: ISL: Shipping Statistics Yearbook 1998, own calculations


B A L T I C O M


Number of ship´s arrivals 1997Name of port 1992 1997 Name of port Growth 1992-1997Helsingborg 95204 91818 Riga 128500Malmö 26140 24287,5 Tallinn 350Copenhagen 23279 23161 Rostock 333Stockholm 14773 14768 Szczecin-Swinoujscie 159Hamburg 12767 11749 Helsinki 125Gothenburg 10423 12691 Gdynia 123Helsinki 7360 9229 Gothenburg 122Szczecin-Swinoujscie 6803 10848 Turku 117Oslo 5349 6134 Oslo 115Lübeck 5052 5660 Lübeck 112Kiel 3206 2948 Helsingborg 104Turku 2627 3083 Stockholm 100Rostock 2316 7719 Copenhagen 99Gdansk 2214 1708 Malmö 93Gdynia 2202 2718 Hamburg 92Tallinn 2062 7222 Kiel 92Riga 1 1285 Gdansk 77

Source: ISL: Shipping Statistics Yearbook 1998


B A L T I C O M

Germany - Exports

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

93-1 93-2 93-3 93-4 94-194-2 94-3 94-4 95-1 95-2 95-3 95-4 96-1 96-296-3 96-4 97-1 97-2

Quarter

in M

ill.

US

$

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

in %

D.O.T.S.World BSR Export quota

Source: UN, Direction of Trade Statistics 1992 – 1998, own calculations



B A L T I C O M

Germany - Entwinement Index

0

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,1

0,12

0,14

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

BSR EW DK LT N PL RUS

S FIN LV




B A L T I C O M

Modal Split, German Exports to the BSR 1994 in %

Vessel Road Rail IWW Total

Danmark 33,2 50,1 14,8 1,8 100

Sweden 84,5 0,2 12,6 2,6 100

Poland 22,7 20,3 50,7 6,3 100

Total 71,8 13,1 12,4 2,7 100

Source: OECD 1998



B A L T I C O M



B A L T I C O M

Scandinavia - Entwinement Index

0

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,1

0,12

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

DK N S FIN




B A L T I C O M


Scandinavia - Modal Split - Exports to BSR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


in %

Dk N S FIN

Source: OECD 1998


B A L T I C O M

Eastern BSR - Entwinement Index

0

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,1

0,12

0,14

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

EW LT PL RUS LV




B A L T I C O M


Eastern BSR - Modal Split - Exports to BSR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


in %

EW LT LV PL

Source: OECD 1998


B A L T I C O M


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