marine and coast in a changing climate elvira s poloczanska alistair j hobday anthony j richardson...
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Marine and Coast in a Changing Climate
Elvira S PoloczanskaAlistair J HobdayAnthony J Richardson Aug 2008
Climate Adaptation
Marine Ecosystems under Threat
Outline
1. Value of marine and coast
2. Climate change and marine ecosystems
3. Vulnerability analysis
4. Adaptation – focus on aquaculture
Marine Ecosystems under Threat
Annual Value of Marine and Coastal Systems to Australia
• Recreational (global) value of GBR ~ A$846 million to A$1.9 billion (Carr and Mendelson 2003 Ambio)
• Economic values (Blackwell 2005):• Open ocean A$ 464.7 billion
• Seagrass/algal beds A$ 175.1 million
• Coral reefs A$ 53.5 billion
• Shelf system A$ 579.9 billion
• Tidal marsh/mangroves A$ 39.1 billion
• Gross domestic product A$ 52 billion • Fisheries and aquaculture A$ 2.12 billion (ABARE 2007)
• Ecosystem services product of Australian coastal ecosystems (Martinez et al 2007 Ecol. Econ.):
• Terrestrial A$ 10.8 billion
• Marine A$ 26.7 billion
Bringing Climate Change to the Fore
2006• Stern Report• Inconvenient Truth• Drought (Hurricane Katrina)
2007• IPCC 4th assessment report• Nobel Peace Prize
Rainfall Projections (A1F1)
2030
2070
Summer Winter
Temperature Projections (A1F1)
2030
2070
Summer Winter
Past and future: temperature
IPCC 2007
150
200
250
300
350
-10 -5 0 5
Deuterium-based Temperature Anomalies, °C
Deglaciations
Glaciations
Atm
osph
eric
pC
O2
, at
m.
IGBP 2000
400
Year 2007 385 ppm
CO2 & Temperature (420,000 Years)
Vostok Ice Core Data
Courtesy David Ugalde, DCC
Recent Surface Temperature Observations
IPCC 2007
Trend in Sea Surface Temperature: 1944-2005
• It’s not getting hotter everywhere….
Ridgway 2007
Warming Hotspot
Fastest warming in SH?
Climate change means non-stationarity
• We will be in “new water” compared with historical patterns
Hill et al (2008)
• Summer SST (Jan-Mar)• 350 km movement
Salinity
Tem
pera
ture
°C
Get prepared for a changed future…
The future is uncertain
SST 2070s 9 different models
Climate Change Impacts on the Ocean
Poloczanska et al 2007
Impact on marine systems
• The biological attributes of exploited species and ecosystems that will likely be affected by climate change fall into four categories
(i) phenology and physiology,
(ii) range and distribution,
(iii) composition and interactions within communities,
(iv) structure and dynamics of communities.
764
90%94%
28586
Terrestrial
1
99%100%
85
Marine and Freshwater
IPCC 4th Assessment, 2007
Figure SM-1.4. Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature used in chapter synthesis assessment in Section 1.4.At the global scale TER = Terrestrial; MFW = Marine and Freshwater, and GLO = Global.
Why? Reduced Observing Capacity
• Marine systems inaccessible
• Satellites observe surface
• Few amateur naturalists
• Springwatch Survey (UK) in 2007: 24,453 obs
• Garden bird counts (UK) in 2007: >400,000 people
• Birds In Backyards survey (Australia) in 2006/07: 987 surveys
Snowdrop first flowering observations 2008: Springwatch
Great Barrier Reef
Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science
Marine Ecosystems under Threat
Why?
• Distribution of global science funding (<11% marine)
• Disentangling multiple stressors from poorly sampled systems
• The way marine ecologists report findings
• Limitations in the IPCC process
• 4 out of 43 WG II authors “marine”
• Guidelines for inclusion prejudice marine time series…
Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science
Marine Ecosystems under Threat
Climate Change and Marine Ecosystems: Overlooked
• IPCC criteria: 20 years data minimum, end 1990 or later
Funding crisis 1980s: 40% of European marine time series terminated
Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science
Duarte et al. (1992) Nature
Marine Ecosystems under Threat
Marine Biota: Canaries of Climate Change
• Distribution• Land: 6.1 km per decade poleward• Marine: 100s of kms per decade for phytoplankton,
zooplankton, fish and intertidal fauna• Connectivity important
• Phenology• Land: 2.3 days earlier per decade (172 taxa)• Marine: ~8 days earlier per decade in plankton,
marine turtles, and seabirds• Mismatch and energy flow
Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science; Richardson (2008) ICES J Mar Sci
In Hot Water: Marine Systems
Ecosystem state
High NLow N
• Temperature: proxy & driver for ecosystem state
• Land: no direct link between T, nutrients & state
warm, stratified, stableflagellates and gelatinous zooplankton
recycled nitrogenlong, inefficient food webfew higher trophic levels
cold, well mixed, turbulentdiatoms and large copepods
new production high short, efficient food web
support higher trophic levels
Richardson (in press) ICES J Mar Sci
Human Impacts on the World’s Oceans
Halpern et al. 2008 Science
Human Impacts on the World’s Oceans
globally <200m
Halpern et al. (2008) Science
Case Study 1: Vulnerability Index
Exposure (E)
Adaptive capacity (AC)
Sensitivity (S)
Potential impact
Vulnerability
Vulnerability: Potential to be damaged, altered or to resist change
‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to copewith, adverse effects of climate change’ (IPCC 2001)
(Allen Report 2005)
MEoW Regionalisation (WWF)
110 120 130 140 150 160-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
Longitude
Lat
itu
de
Locations
20202
20203
20204
20205
20206
2020720208
20209
20210
20211
2014020141
20142
20143
20144
2014520150
Estimating Vulnerability – Adaptive Capacity Dimension
Number Name Description
A1Charter Boat Operations
Charter boat operators, businesses per suburb
A2 Ship visitsTotal port visits all vessels 2000-2001
A3 Ship movementsShip location density (low to high)
A4 Siesmic surveys Location of siesmic surveys
A5Oil & gas installations
Location of oil and gas infrastructure and wells
A6 Dumps
Location of ammunition disposal, boat, chemical and miscellaneous dumps
A7Conservation status
Area of land and sea protected under WHA, RAMSAR, Parks etc
A8 Heavy metals Heavy metal pollution total kg
A9Organic compounds
Organic compounds pollution total kg
A10 Particles Particle pollution total kg
A11 Population Number of people
A12 Trawl fisheriesMean annual catch (2000-02) tonnes
A13 Net fisheriesMean annual catch (2000-02) tonnes
Estimating Vulnerability – Exposure (Climate Change) Dimension
Variable name GCM variable
Units GCM Description
C1 Sea surface temperature tos K CSIRO Mk 3.5 Surface temperature marine
C2 Air temperature tas K CSIRO Mk 3.5 Near-surface (usually 2m) air-temperature
C3 Surface downward shortwave flux in air
rsds W m-2 CSIRO Mk 3.5 Shortwave radiation
C4 Precipitation flux pr kg m-2 s-1 CSIRO Mk 3.5 Includes liquid (e.g. rainfall) and solid (e.g. snowfall) phases
C5 Salinity so 1e-3 i.e. ppt Hadcm3 3d variable, depth set 1 selected (surface)
C6 Sea level zosga m Hadcm3 Total change in global mean sea level relative to some fixed distance from the centre of the earth
C7 Eastward wind uas m s‑1 CSIRO Mk 3.5 Near-surface (usually 10m) eastward component of wind
C7 Northward wind vas m s‑1 CSIRO Mk 3.5 Near-surface (usually 10m) northward component of wind
C8 Eastward water velocity vo m s‑1 Hadcm3 3d variable, depth set 1 selected (surface)
C8 Northward water velocity uo m s‑1 Hadcm3 3d variable, depth set 1 selected (surface)
Climate Change Dimension
2030
2060
A1B A2
Estimating Vulnerability – Sensitivity Dimension
Attributes Seagrass Mangrove Coral
S1Thermal
affiliationThermal affiliation from seagrass atlas
Thermal affiliation from mangrove atlas
Thermal affiliation from coral atlas
S2 Latitudinal rangeLatitudinal ranges from seagrass atlas
Latitudinal ranges from mangrove atlas
Latitudinal ranges from coral atlas
S3
% latitudinal range in Australia
Latitudinal ranges from seagrass atlas
Latitudinal ranges from mangrove atlas
Latitudinal ranges from coral atlas
S4 Growth typeGrowth types from literature
Growth types from literature
Growth types from literature
S5 MorphologyMorphology from literature Morphology from literature
Morphology from literature
S6Reproductive
StrategyReproductive strategies from literature
Reproductive strategies from literature
Reproductive strategies from literature
S7Habitat range
(Australia)Primary habitats occupied from literature
Primary habitats occupied from literature
Primary habitats occupied from literature
S8 Patchiness NHMP NHMP NHMP
S9 Diversity Seagrass atlas Mangrove atlas Coral atlas
Vulnerability
0
1
2
3
Climate Change
Adaptive CapacitySensivity
2035
2065
Western Bassian
South Australian Gulfs
Great Australian Bight
0
1
2
3
Climate Change
Adaptive CapacitySensivity
20206
20207
20208
Marine Ecosystems under Threat
Responding to climate change
Two points of action: mitigation (addressing the cause) and adaptation (planned response to the changes)
• Mitigation of climate change refers to those response strategies that reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks
• Adaptation involves adjusting practices, processes and capital in response to the actuality or threat of climate change as well as changes in the decision environment such as social and institutional structures.
Marine Ecosystems under Threat
Climate Impacts and Adaptation Science
Observations
ExperimentsModels
Detection
EvaluationAdaptation(strategies)
Model scenarios
Impacts(Attribution)
BIOLOGY
Socio-economic
ReviewsDesk-top studies
Discovery science
Marine Ecosystems under Threat
Recent Reviews – Biological
Hobday A.J., Okey T.A., Poloczanska E.S., Kunz T.J. & Richardson A.J. (eds.) 2007. Impacts of Climate Change on Australian Marine Life.
Hobday A.J., E. Poloczanska, R. Matear (eds.) 2008. Review of Climate Impacts on Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture
Voice et al (2006). Vulnerability to climate change of Australia’s coastal zone
Hobday, A., Poloczanska, E., Matear, R., Preston, N., Okey, T. A., Thresher, R., Klaer, N., Lyne, V., Bax, N., Rintoul, S. Caputi, N. Young, J. Leaper, R.
Climate Change Impacts on Aquaculture
Impact Fresh water/ Pond
Coastal Off shore
Warming temperature + / - + / - + / -Decreased rainfall - + / - + / -Rising sea level ? -Ocean acidification ? ?Increased extreme events (storms) - - -Declining ocean productivity? ? ?
Do we have the management structure to take opportunities and reduce impact?
Climate impacts on aquaculture
• Physical environment changes• Winds => increase (site selection?)• Temperature => increase (species selection?)• Rainfall => decrease?? (runoff impacts)
• Biological relationships for (sea) farmed species (systems)• Algal blooms – temperature and stratification• Pathogens – temperature
• Economic impacts• Fuel costs (cost)• Increased demand for farmed species (benefit)• Fish meal demand and price (cost?)• Biofouling – (cost)
• Challenges for future prediction: mismatch of scales• Spatial scales: large for physical predictions and offshore• Temporal scales: short for biological time series
Adaptation is crucial
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Changing Climate
Planning Horizon
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Changing Climate
Planning Horizon
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Aquaculture is “ahead” with regard to planning
Adaptation a standard business practice (genetic improvement)
Key Points: Climate Change and Fisheries and Aquaculture
• Understanding climate impacts on fisheries• Studies of climate variability lead to understanding about climate change
impacts.• Paleo-ecology studies can shed light on past response to climate
fluctuation
• Fisheries will be impacted differently according to the physical changes in the regional environment and species characteristics
• A number of stocks are over-exploited; the additional impact of climate change is of concern to future sustainability.
• Increased temperatures at the southern end of species’ ranges leaves little room for further southward migration, thus fishers will likely be affected.
• Socio-economic Impacts• Aquaculture industries have considerable adaptation potential via selective
breeding, regulating the environment, and new species opportunities• Wild fisheries will see increased opportunity where warmer-water species
move southward or increase • For southern fisheries, reconciling non-climate threats with increasing
temperature will require proactive management.• Management structures and policies that account for climate change will
allow most flexibility in adapting to future patterns.
Key questions for fisheries and aquaculture
• Will my species be impacted?• How, positive/negative?
• Will there be new opportunities?• Species, markets, social?
• Is my business adaptable to CC?• Clients, seasons, processing, transport
• Is management policy compatible with CC?• Spatial management and allocation of rights to
area and species?
Rational options
Efficient options
Appealing options
Choices: Informed, efficient, pragmaticChoices: Informed, efficient, pragmatic
Hobday, Marshall, Marshall
Rational options
Efficient options
Appealing options
with climate change, a change in the space
Hobday, Marshall, Marshall
Choices: Informed, efficient, pragmaticChoices: Informed, efficient, pragmatic
Thank you
Climate Adaptation FlagshipClimate Impacts Grouphttp://www.cmar.csiro.au/climateimpacts/
Alistair HobdayPhone: +61 3Email: [email protected]
Anthony RichardsonPhone: +61 3Email: [email protected]
Elvira PoloczanskaPhone: +61 3 6232 5141Email: [email protected]
Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au