marine transportation of energy marine transportation system capacity mare forum houston nov. 18-19...
DESCRIPTION
Nominal Arabian Light Deflated Arabian Light Nominal freight rates Deflated freight rates Source: INTERTANKO, IEA 10TRANSCRIPT
Marine Transportation of Energy
Marine Transportation System Capacity
Mare ForumHouston Nov. 18-19 2002
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesPeter M. Swift
The world needs tankers
As long as the world uses oilAs long as the world uses oil • World oil consumption 3,590 mptaWorld oil consumption 3,590 mpta
• 60 % t60 % transported by sea = ransported by sea = 2,0152,015 mtpa mtpa
• + 103 + 103 mtpamtpa chemicals chemicals
Freight rates and oil price $/bbl
0
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
Nominal Arabian Light Deflated Arabian Light Nominal freight rates Deflated freight rates
Source: INTERTANKO, IEA
10
Tonnes spilt Tonnes spilt per billion tonne-mile transportedper billion tonne-mile transported
0
10
20
30
40
50
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
US crude oil production and net crude oil imports1983-2003 (est.)
Source: EIA
23456789
10Ja
n-83
Jan-
85
Jan-
87
Jan-
89
Jan-
91
Jan-
93
Jan-
95
Jan-
97
Jan-
99
Jan-
01
Jan-
03
Mbd
US crude oil production
US net crude oil imports
Linear (US net crude oilimports)Linear (US crude oilproduction)
U
Oil consumption in selected Asian countries
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Mbd
China India Thailand Korea Taiwan
OPEC and non-OPEC oil production1971-2002
Source: IEA
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50M
bd
Non-OPECOPEC
Major world crude oil exporters - Mbd
Source: OPEC, PIW, IEA, Norwegian Oil Directorate
Crude oil exports - world's largest exporters
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001est.
2002proj.
Mbd
SaudiArabiaFSU
Norway
Iran
UAE
Nigeria
Venezuela
UK
Mexico
Kuwait
Crude oil – seaborne trade indicies1973=100
Source: Fearnleys
40
60
80
100
120
Tonne-miles
Tonnes
Miles
Oil products – seaborne trade indicies 1973=100
Source: Fearnleys
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Miles
Tonnes
Tonne-miles
Tanker & combined carrier fleet by year of build
0
2550
75
100
125150
175
200
225
250275
<196
819
7019
7219
7419
7619
7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
04+
Num
ber o
f tan
kers
U/VLCCsSuezmaxAframaxPanamax10'-60' dwt
Fordelivery
Tanker & combined carrier fleet by year of build
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
<196
819
7019
7219
7419
7619
7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
04+
Dw
t m
illio
ns
U/VLCCsSuezmaxAframaxPanamax10'-60' dwt
Fordelivery
Tanker fleet double-hull development
Source: INTERTANKO
622
5175 81
9478
4925 19
0
20
40
60
80
100
1991 1997 End 02 End 07 End 10
SH share (%)
DH share (%)
Double hull ships are great
…but like the life rafts of a Boeing 747, it is a device we should do all in our power to
avoid testing.
World fleet and orderbook - million dwt
0 100 200 300
Ferry-HSReefer
DC-generalDC - multi-Ferry-24hs
Ferry-dayRoro-cargo
ContainerRoro-car
BulkerCruiseCombi
Chem. TankProd tanker
LPGCrude
LNG
FleetOn order
22%
21% 24%
World Shipbuilding Capacity (mCGT)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 2005
OthersPolandChinaEUJapanKorea
Source :KSA
World Shipbuilding Capacity (mCGT)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 2005
Others
Poland
China
EU
Japan
Korea
Completions
Completions peak year 2001
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues
Demand for marine transportation Supply of marine transportation Shipping standards Environmental concerns Security issues
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesDemand for Marine Transportation
Oil dependence & Global economic health
Oil sources – long haul vs. short haul Alternative energy sources Pipelines
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesSupply of Marine Transportation
Fair return on investment
AGEISMArbitrary but flawed age limitations- legislation or charterers- challenge to principle of grandfathering
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesShipping Standards – The Threats
Poor freight rates Weak links in the chain of responsibility Competition between builders and
between classification societies Ineffective self-regulation Inadequate feedback mechanisms
QUALITY STANDARDS -
THE VICIOUS CIRCLE
STANDARDSLOWERED
ACCIDENTS INCREASE
IMPOSITION OF NEW
REGULATIONS
INVESTMENT DISCOURAGED
??
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesEnvironmental Concerns
Society’s ever increasing expectations – effectively zero tolerance
Bunker fuel requirements
Oil movements in extra sensitive areas
Some of the more sensitive areas
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesSecurity Issues
Limburg incident
Security at loading and discharge ports
Critical passages
Critical Oil Movements Security Concerns
Straits of Hormuz 15.5 mbd (14 mbd crude)Malacca Straits 10 -12 mbdRed Sea 3.3 mbdSumed pipeline 2.2 mbdBosporous/Turkish Straits 1.6 up to 2.3 mbdDruzba / ”Friendship” pipeline 1.2 mbdCeyhan pipeline 1.1 mbdSuez canal0.9 mbdPanama canal and pipeline 0.5 mbd
The world needs tankers
- the world expects tankers to be safe !
Thank you
www.intertanko.com