maritime information warfare - the human dimension
TRANSCRIPT
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Pixabay
Maritime Information
Warfare–
The Human Dimension
Andy Fawkes
SMi Inaugural Maritime Information Warfare Conference - London - 6/7 December 2017
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100% Information?
USS Fitzgerald
USS John S. McCain
CNN
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100% Information?
2015 FOIA request
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Sailors of the Future?
• Who will they be?
• What will they do?
• Where will they be?
• How will they train?
• Will we need them?
Pixabay
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Adaptability
People
Digital
Metal
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Presentation Overview
• The Modern Sailor
• Training System Developments
• Training Data
• Do we need Humans? Simulation and AI
• Simulation – C2 Convergence
• Organisational Realities
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The Modern Sailor
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2017 RN Age Distribution
Wikimedia
47% of the Royal Navy is
29 or Less
and 79% 39 or Less
UK Defence Personnel Statistics - No CBP7930, 29 June 2017
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“Digital Native”
a person born or brought up during the age of digital technology and so
familiar with computers and the Internet from an early age
Wikimedia
Broadly, 50% of the Royal Navy now are Digital Natives and 80% by 2030
Oxford Dictionary – Flikr/cwasteson
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Changing Demographics
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Ryan Jenkins
Wikimediahttp://v000-ryan-jenkins.pantheonsite.io
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Employee Power?
ratings and reviews of over 600,000 companies worldwide
glassdoor
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What’s Next?
Pixabay/YouTube
Digital Native AI Native?
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Training System Developments
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Digital Media Consumption
Pixabay
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LiveSimulation
-People in
Instrumented Real World
Saab, BISim, Matrix Games
Virtual
Simulation
-
People in a
Virtual World
Constructive
Simulation
-
Simulated
People & World
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• LVC
Live-Virtual-Constructive Infrastructure
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Consumer Technology
Bohemia Interactive Simulations
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Military Access to Simulation
1990 2000
Nu
mb
ers
10’s
100’s
1,000’s
2010 2020
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Video Games…
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Quantified Human
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Maritime Operations
Room Training
BAE Systems/MoD
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Train and Retain the Trainer?
Pixabay
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Training Data
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UKThursday
War
Weekly war-fighting and damage control
exercises
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNaRsFYSPP8
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Training & Operations Management Software (FlightPro)
Ocean Software FlightPro®
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xAPI
learnxapi.com
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Dstl Funded Research - What can we Learn from Massively Multiplayer Online Games? (MMOGs) in a Defence Context?
• MMOGs offer a new way of thinking about persistency of training and simulation data and user community support.
• A defence MMOG approach would bring benefits to trainees, trainers, analysts and the enterprise, driving cost effectiveness and improving flexibility. Key MMOG features:
• Persistency of Player/Simulation Data
• Community Support
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Digitisation of Training
E-Learning
Simulation
Virtual Reality
Augmented Reality
Mixed Reality
Wearables
Internet of Things
Sensors
Mobile Computing
Cloud Computing
Data Analytics
Artificial Intelligence
Autonomous Systems
Pixabay
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A Fourth Revolution - Training 4.0 (?)
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Paper,
Chalk
Paper,
Electro-
Mechanical
Digital
Media
Digitisation of
Training
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People Analytics
2017 Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends - Rewriting the rules for the digital age
• Driven by the widespread adoption of cloud HR systems, companies are investing heavily in programs to use data for all aspects of workforce planning, talent management, and operational improvement.
• People analytics, a discipline that started as a small technical group that analysed engagement and retention, has now gone mainstream.
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Personalised Data-Driven Learning
EDUCAUSE®
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Linking?
Training
Data
Operational
Data
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Do we need Humans?Simulation and AI
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Queen Bee Drone – 1930s/40s
nearly 400 built
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Nothing New in the World?
Gaumont British Newsreel (Reuters) - Wikipedia
RN High Angle Control System Fire Control
Computer (1930s/40s)
Radio Controlled “Queen Bee” (1936)
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Military Autonomous Systems
US Army
Manned-
Unmanned
Teaming
(MUM-T)
US Navy
Autonomous
Craft
US Navy
X-47B
US AFRL
“ALPHA”
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Driving Factors in Artificial Intelligence
1. Hardware• Faster Processors hosted locally or in the cloud
• Synergies of AI programming (eg. solving matrices) and graphics
cards
2. Data• Explosion of data, online and real time, to train AI programs
3. Algorithms• Algorithms such as deep learning are a major force driving AI
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DeepMind and Go (Oct 2017)
• Latest DeepMind incarnation is
“AlphaGo Zero”, with new neural
net design
• Trained in 3 days, no human
intervention except Go rules
• Result:
• “AlphaGo Zero” beats
“AlphaGo” – 100 to 0
• Singularity?
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Unity Games Engine
Machine Learning Agents (Sep 2017)
Nvidia
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AI and Strategy Games (2017)
Starcraft
1. A multi-agent problem
2. Imperfect information
3. Large & diverse action space
4. Early decisions influence the
game later
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Alphabet (Google) Waymo
3 Million Real Miles (2016) 2.5 Billion Simulated Miles (2016)
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Artificial Intelligence Technology Challenges
• Large volumes of data are required, especially for modern neural net AI approaches• Favours the large Tech companies?
• AI programs typically can only do one task• "there is no neural network in the world, and no method right now that can
be trained to identify objects and images, play Space Invaders, and listen to music“ (DeepMind)
• AI programs can be difficult to understand and verify after programming• DARPA’s Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
• Cyber Security?
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The Ethical Dimension of Artificial Intelligence
German Government Autonomous Car Design Principles (2017)
1. Automated/networked driving is ethically necessary if the systems
cause fewer accidents than human drivers
2. In the event of danger, the protection of human life always has top
priority
3. For unavoidable accidents, any qualification of people according to
personal characteristics (eg. age) is not permitted
4. At all times the system must state who is responsible: the human or the
computer
5. Anyone who drives must be documented
6. The driver must be able to decide themselves about the use of their
vehicle data
UK Ministry of Defence (2017):
“It’s absolutely right that our weapons are
operated by real people capable of making
incredibly important decisions, and we are
guaranteeing that vital oversight”
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Paul M Fitts (ed) (1951)Human Engineering for an Effective Air Navigation and Traffic Control System
• We suggest that great caution be exercised in assuming that men can successfully
monitor complex automatic machines and take over if the machines break down.
• Engineers should seriously consider systems in which machines would monitor men
and prevent them from making dangerous mistakes.
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Humans might get even better…
The Guardian – 7 Nov 2016
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The Optimum Human/Machine Blend
•Humans & Machines working in Harmony Maximising the Strengths of Both
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Simulation – C2 Convergence
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Ender’s Game
Leadership
Remotely-Operated/Autonomous Agents
Intu
itive In
terfa
ces
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The Problem - Different Stages to Perform On…
Images - Wikipedia
Training Mission Preparation
OperationsAnalysis
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Ambition C4ISTAR
Systems
Training &
Simulation
Systems
Autonomous
Systems
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Organisational Realities
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Human Factors and TrainingAlways Last?
Pixabay
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Technological Change
2017 Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends - Rewriting the rules for the digital age
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Technology
Wikimedia
Procurement
Pixabay
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Organisational/Project Boundaries (UK Air Training)
ASDOT
DCS&S
LTPA
WIST
MSHTF
STARS
MFTS
TyTan
TFST
DOTC(A)
F-35
iASTCDSALT2
C17 AUV E-3
A400M
C-130
P-8MAA
Apache
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How does it all fit together?
Pixabay
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Stovepipes of Data
Pixabay
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MoD Customers
Service Providers
Pooled Data
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Final Thoughts
• Human factors become more important as automation and AI increases
• Simulation can play a key role in testing and training humans and autonomous systems both separately and together
• It’s Operational Information but also Internal Human, Organisational and Project Information
• War is Chaotic and Information is Imperfect
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Questions?