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DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
Morten Mejlænder-Larsen
MARITIME
Some Development Scenarios for Future NSR Maritime Infrastructure
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CHNL Industry Seminar Busan:
NSR’s Future Maritime Transportation & Logistics System
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
2
How to ensure that this is SAFE
“Before owners will consider the route as an attractive alternative, they will expect a
great deal from the NSR Administration.
This can be condensed into two words; Safety and Guarantees”
Former President Ronald Bergman, BIMCO
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
Safety - depending on type of operation
The need for infrastructure will depend on type of operation:
OSV operations -> normally several vessels operating together
Destination shipping -> experience
Transit one of the routes -> IB assistance or independent, NSR or NWP
Cruise, large vessels
Expedition Cruises
3
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09 December 2016
The Arctic calls for a risk based approach
Risk Reward
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09 December 2016
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Risk = Probability x Consequence
North Sea/World wide Arctic/NSR
R R
Ex. Maritime Risk:
Collision with other vessel
Contact
Fire/explosion
Structural failure
Grounding
Collision with installation
Collision during Ship To Ship (STS) approach
Accidental oil spill during loading/unloading
Additional risk
Identify
Mitigate
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
Identified HAZARDS, basis for the development of Polar Code
1. Ice
2. Topside icing,
3. Low temperature
4. Darkness
5. High latitude
6. Remoteness
7. SAR
8. Crew experience
9. Emergency response equipment
10. Severe weather
11. Environment
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DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
Identified HAZARDS, basis for the development of Polar Code
1. Ice
2. Topside icing,
3. Low temperature
4. Darkness
5. High latitude
6. Remoteness
7. SAR
8. Crew experience
9. Emergency response equipment
10. Severe weather
11. Environment
7
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
How to ensure safe operation along the NSR with acceptable risk?
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09 December 2016
NSR Risk, summer and winter. Will require different infrastructure
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Challenge Risk
Summer Spring/Fall Winter
1. Ice
2. Topside icing,
3. Low temperature
4. Darkness
5. High latitude
6. Remoteness
7. SAR
8. Crew experience
9. Emergency response equipment
10. Severe weather
11. Environment
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
The diverse Arctic – dynamic risk picture – different infrastructure
Different geographical conditions
Remoteness
Vulnerability
Seasonal variations
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https://maps.dnvgl.com/arcticriskmap/
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
Factors to be considered when evaluating NSR as an alternative:
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• Remove possible obstacles that can endanger vessel or crew
• Environmentally sensitive area; requires effective emergency
response plans and resources to provide for efficient clean up
• Available SAR services
• Same SAR and Port Services available for all flags
• Navigational aids along NSR, inclusive weather and ice info
• Crew Training and relevant competence/experience
• Predictable fees for possible emergency services
• From insurance point: - the risk assessment must not show
significantly increase in risk
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
This will require a minimum infrastructure along NSR
Ice and weather forecast
Ice breaker assistance
Navigational aids
SAR resources, including:
– emergency services
– rescue coordination centre
– rescue services
– helicopter and SAR vessels
– towing capabilities
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09 December 2016
Western part of NSR
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Eastern part of NSR
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09 December 2016
This will require a minimum infrastructure along NSR
Ports, with infrastructure
– port capacity
– repair facilities
– hospital
– airport/roads/railroad
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DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
Future developments of infrastructure will depend on
Available capital for financing of future infrastructure
– Will depend on future activity. Private investors will evaluate future return on
investment.
– One of the drivers for governmental investment is increased activity in the area
– General growth along NSR within O&G
– Today; too few actors to defend investments in infrastructure
– Where to find revenue? NSR fee?
– Long term legal and tax regime in Russia
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DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
Low activity has slowed down the development along NSR
activity
demand
investment
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NSR
activity
DNV GL © 2014
Ungraded
09 December 2016
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
21
Morten Mejlaender-Larsen
+47 99713588