Mark D. LevineDivision Director

Environmental Energy Technologies

LBNL Workshop:

Solar to Fuel – Future Challenges and Solutions

March 28 – 29, 2005

Issues in the Transition to a CO2-

Neutral Economy

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Objectives• Provide insights into global scenarios of energy

use and greenhouse gas emissions and

• Address question: role of energy technology in

preventing big problems

• Background

• Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions

• Policy: China example

Topics

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• Current global energy use: ~400 Exajouoles/yr; (United States is 25%)

• Per capita energy use: 11.5 kW (U.S.); 5 kW (W. Europe); 1.5 kW (developing country) • Energy production and use accounts for ~80% of greenhouse gas emissions • Pre-industrial level of carbon dioxide in atmosphere = 280 ppm; current level is 370 ppm (1/3 higher), growing at >1.0 percent per year • No controversy about fact that this increase has anthropogenic source• Doubling of carbon in atm from pre-industrial levels => initial 2 deg C increase (3.5 deg C increase at steady state) in global temperature

although climate change models still need much improvement, this average result has been best estimate in all major studies since early 1970’s major impacts likely to be caused by increased frequency of events such as hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, and sea level rise rather than simply temperature changes

Background

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• In my view, there is a need to rethink approach to energy and carbon emission scenarios • The current approach, exemplified by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios by the IPCC*, is flawed

like previous approaches, no attention is given to the underlying causes of energy use (e.g., refrigerators: efficiency, size, saturation; steel mills: processes, efficiency, tonnes of steel, uses of output)

even more problematical, this work involves statistics on analyses of uncertain meaning

___________________________* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Scenarios

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Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. London: Cambridge University Press.

Global energy-related and industrial CO2 emissions – historical development and future scenarios, shown as an index (1990 = 1).

Scenarios

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• Presentation today is for first phase of new work, based on macro economic considerations

• On-going work addresses global demand for energy services:

Example 1 – refrigeration: size, saturation, and efficiency of refrigeratorsExample 2 – air conditioning: climate; thermal characteristics of building; saturation and usage of air conditioners; efficiencyExample 3 – steel: demand for steel including materials substitution; efficiency of steel-making processes; mix of recycled vs. steel from ore

Scenarios

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All scenarios assume the same population projections (source: World Bank).

All scenarios break the world into ten regions as defined by LBNL.

Population Projections

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Scenario Description

North America and Western Europe remain near their current per capita energy usage.

The rest of the world approaches 1x, 0.75x, and 0.5x the European level in 2075.

North America and Western Europe decrease 0.5% per year from 2000 per capita energy usage through 2075.

The rest of the world approaches 1x, 0.75x, and 0.5x the European level in 2075.

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

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North America fixed at 2000 level.

Europe fixed at 2000 level.

Rest-of-world matches Europe in 2075

Scenario 1A: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage

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North America fixed at 2000 level.

All of Europe and Pacific OECD reaches European 2000 levels.

Rest-of-world reaches 0.75*Europe in 2075

Scenario 1B: Assumed per capita Energy Usage

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North America fixed at 2000 level.

All of Europe, and Pacific OECD, reaches 2000 European level in 2075.

Rest-of-world matches 0.5*Europe in 2075

Scenario 1C: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage

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Energy use in North America and Europe declines 1%/yr per capita from 2005

Rest-of-world matches Europe in 2075

Scenario 2A: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage

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Energy use in North America and Europe declines 1%/yr per capita from 2005

Rest-of-world reaches 0.75*(Europe in 2075)

Scenario 2B: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage

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Energy use in North America and Europe declines 1%/yr per capita from 2005.

Rest-of-world reaches 0.5 *(Europe in 2075)

Scenario 2C: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage

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Comparison: Total Primary Energy, Scenario 1 A/B/C compared to Scenario 2 A/B/C

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Carbon Emitted per Unit of Primary Energy for All Scenarios

Baseline assumption: carbon emitted per unit of primary energy will continue to decrease at its historic rate of 3.6% per decade

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Projected Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration in 2100, Different Scenarios

Assumes that for each unit of carbon emitted from 2000 to 2100, atm carbon increases by 0.5 units, as in past decades

Does not consider effects of major changes in carbon content of energy supply

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• Story of China illustrates a remarkable policy success 1980-2000

shows tremendous policy challenges today

by its size and economic growth, will lie at the center of the policy matters

technology policy

internal (Chinese) energy policy

international climate change policy

Policy

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0

5001,000

1,5002,000

2,5003,000

3,5004,000

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1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997

Prim

ary

Ener

gy U

se (M

tce)

Consumption at 1977 Intensity, Reported GDP

Consumption at 1977 Intensity, Adjusted GDP

Actual Consumption

Energy efficiency policies and investment in energy efficiency achieved remarkable results in China

Energy Use, Actual and Projected at 1977 Intensity, 1952-1999

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Major reversal in China since 2001

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2001

2002

2003

2004

2001

= 1

00 GDP

EnergyThere’s beena dramatic change – with very serious consequences

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What is to be done?

• $25B/yr investment in energy efficiency is needed to cut energy demand growth in half

• Restoring energy efficiency investment to early 1980’s level (that is 10-15% of supply investment) would be ~$6.5B/yr

• Actual investment is ~$3B/yr!

• $4-6B/yr investment in energy efficiency may be sufficient if policies bring forth the remaining needed investment

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What policies will produce the needed investment?

• Energy Efficiency Policies— targets for energy efficiency for industries,— building energy standards,— appliance efficiency standards,— auto fuel economy standards, and— Incentives for new transport infrastructure (bus

rapid transit).

• Supporting Programs and Policies — technical guidance— utility demand-side management — good economic signals

• Investment Incentives — for whatever is not paid for by consumers

(above)

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Conclusion

• If we are to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to acceptable levels, everything is important

Policies

Energy efficiency technology

Zero-carbon supply technology

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Carbon Emissions per Unit of Primary Energy: Three Scenarios of Future Development

I II III

2000-2019

3.6 3.6 3.6

2020-2039

3.6 4.5 6

2040-2059

3.6 5.5 8

2060-2100

3.6 7 10

Decrease in carbon emitted per unit of energy produced

(percent decrease per decade)

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Projected Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration in 2100, under Different Scenarios of Carbon

per Unit Energy

Assumption: for each unit of carbon emitted from 2000 to 2100, atmospheric carbon in 2100 increases by 0.5 units.