mark rosegrant, ifpri
TRANSCRIPT
Water Scarcity and Food Security: Challenges, Scenarios, and Policy
Responses
Mark W. RosegrantDirector
Environment and Production Technology Division
Water Policy for Food Security: A Global ConferenceWorld Food Center
University of California-DavisOctober 5-6, 2015
Outline Challenges for Water and Food Security
Scenario Modeling Methodology
Alternative Food and Water Scenarios to 2050
Conclusions: Policies for Water and Food Security
Challenges for Water and Food Security
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Increasing Population and Demographic Shifts
World population (billions)
Source: Data from UN 2011
Population change by region, 2010-2100 (millions)
Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food
0
2
4
6
8
10
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Total
Rural
Urban
9.3 billion
Source: UN 2011
Africa: Youthful
Asia & Europe: Ageing
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0
10
20
30
40
50OECD
Developing countries
Rising Incomes and Demand and Diet Changes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030
World
Developing Countries
Source: OECD-FAO 2012
GDP per capita $US (‘000s)
Source: ERS-USDA 2012
Change in consumption of agric. products 2009-11 to 2021 (%)
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Key Question
Page 7
Would reduction in meat consumption in richer countries improve food security in developing countries?
Source: Rosegrant 2012
Economic Growth and Meat Consumption
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Dietary Change? Water is Gaining on Soda
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Gal
loo
ns
per
cap
ita
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Supply drivers
• Climate change and variability
• Water and land scarcity
• Competition with biofuels
• Investment in agricultural research
• Science and technology policy
– Discovery, development, delivery
– Intellectual property rights, regulatory systems, extension http://fbae.org/2009/FBAE/website/
images/btcotton_rice.jpg
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2004/200
40721/har.jpg
Supply-side Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
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Whither Oil Prices / Biofuel Expansion?
Oil prices are highly correlated to food prices
Rising oil prices make biofuels more profitable
Global biofuel production projected to almost double from 2009-11 to 2021
Cereal use for biofuels to rise by 7% annually—compared to 1.5% for food and feed
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jul-06 Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-12
Food
Oil
Source: Data from IMF 2012
Oil and food prices, 2006-12 (2005 = 100)
Biofuel production, 1996-2021 (billion liters)
Source: Data from OECD-FAO Outlook 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
EU-27
USA
Brazil
Source: OECD/FAO 2012Source: Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008
Challenges for Water Policy
Increasing costs of developing new water and delivering developed water; need for efficient use of developed water
Wasteful use of already developed supplies encouraged by subsidies and distorted incentives that influence water use
Depletion of groundwater, water pollution, declining water quality, and degradation of water-related ecosystems
Climate change, extreme weather and variable energy prices
Future role of hydropower and multipurpose dams
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Change (%) in average annual runoff across the regions of the world
Source: World Bank WDR 2010
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Change in consecutive number of dry days across regions of the world
Source: WB WDR 2010.
Longer dry spells
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Change in rainfall intensity across regions of the world
Source: WB WDR 2010.
More intense rainfall
Scenario Modeling Methodology
The IMPACT3 Modeling Suite Linked system of hydrological, water use, crop simulation, and
partial equilibrium economic models
IMPACT
IMPACT Global Hydrological
Model
IMPACT Water Simulation
Model
DSSAT Crop Models
GCM Climate Forcing
Effective PPotential ET
IRW
Irrigation Water Demand & Supply
Crop Management
WATER STRESS
Pop & GDP growth
Area & yield growth
Food Projections
• Crop area / livestock numbers, yields, and production
• Agricultural commodity demand
• Agricultural commodity trade and prices
• Hunger and Mal-nourishment
Water Projections
• Water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock and irrigation users
• Water supply reliability
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IMPACT Spatial Resolution
159• Countries
154• Water
Basins
320
• Food Production Units
Alternative Food and Water Scenarios to 2050
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IMPACT Baseline Suite
NoCC – Historical climate
Four GCMs, IPCC-AR5, with one Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5
• IPSL, Hadley, MIROC, GFDL
Climate Change Business As Usual (BAU)– with climate change, HadGEM2, RCP 8.5 and SSP2
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Rainfed Maize: Global mean yields projected 30% lower in 2050 compared to no climate change (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
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Irrigated Rice: Global mean yields projected 12% lower in 2050 compared to no climate change (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
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Rainfed Wheat: Global mean yields projected 4.0% lower in 2050 compared to no climate change (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
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Cereals - most severe global impacts of climate change on prices: 25% increase compared to NoCC in 2050; 50% higher than 2010
Meat - relatively modest 5% impact (indirect) of CC
Cereals Meats
Indexed Global Prices BAU
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
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Fruits and vegetables, pulses, and roots and tubers: 9% to 12% increase with CC in 2050 (about 30% above 2010 levels)
Roots & Tubers Pulses
Indexed Global Prices BAU
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
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Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
Bioeconomy Scenario Description
Annual productivity growth increases by average across crops of 0.23 percentage points and 0.20 percentage points for livestock
Water use efficiency - assumed to improve in each sector:
• Domestic sector: average global efficiency improvement = 45% in 2050 compared to BAU
• Industrial sector: average global efficiency increase = 43% by 2050 compared to BAU
• Smaller efficiency gains for irrigation sector
– Average global efficiency gains = 15% in 2050 compared to BAU
Bioeconomy Scenario Description Efficiency gains for industrial and residential water use
taken from WaterGAP model (Ozkaynak et al. 2012); irrigation sector by IFPRI
Underlying assumptions of water use efficiency gains• Efficiency measures in industry and residential water use and
climate policies lead to recycling and reduced demand for thermal cooling in power generation as fossil-fuel-powered plants are more rapidly replaced by renewable energy sources
• For agriculture, basin water use efficiency gains are based on more efficient transpiration and reduced water losses
– drought resistant varieties and other advances in research and biotechnology
– reduced non-beneficial ET
– reduced losses to water sinks (e.g. due to water-conserving irrigation and crop management technologies and reduced evaporative losses during conveyance)
Bioeconomy Scenario Description
Impact of faster technological change - commercial scale second generation biofuels start 5 years earlier than Business As Usual (BAU) (2025 rather than 2030); reducing demand for first generation feedstocks
GDP growth increased relative to BAU to reflect increased productivity in agricultural and water sectors
CGE model GTEM (Ahammad and Mi 2005) used iteratively with IMPACT to generate multiplier effects from agricultural and water sector productivity growth to GDP growth
Globally, GDP growth increases from 3.2% per year under BAU to 3.6% per year under Bioeconomy Scenario
Total consumptive water use (km3/yr) under Business As Usual and Bioeconomy Scenarios in 2000, 2030 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (2012).
Region 2000
2030 2050
BAU BIOChange vs. BAU
(%)BAU BIO
Change vs. BAU
(%)
East Asia & Pacific 428.5 493.4 476.2 -3.5 588.8 508.9 -13.6
Europe & Central Asia 100.6 158.2 118.8 -24.9 219.3 121.3 -44.7Latin America & Caribbean 113.5 160.0 142.0 -11.3 188.4 149.3 -20.8
Middle East & North Africa 72.7 96.6 90.5 -6.3 105.1 96.1 -8.6
South Asia 502.8 608.7 592.8 -2.6 693.3 663.1 -4.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 50.5 100.5 90.2 -10.2 139.5 114.1 -18.2
North America 146.4 184.7 161.3 -12.7 218.6 159.9 -26.9
NAFTA 180.0 225.7 198.0 -12.3 262.7 196.0 -25.4
Europe Developed 48.7 57.9 44.3 -23.4 66.4 40.1 -39.6
Developed 235.3 289.0 246.9 -14.6 331.6 237.7 -28.3
Developing 1269.0 1617.4 1510.6 -6.6 1934.4 1652.8 -14.6
World 1504.3 1906.4 1757.5 -7.8 2266.0 1890.6 -16.6
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Change in Irrigation Water Consumption Bioeconomy Scenario Compared to BAU (%)
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
EastAsiaPacific
EuropeCentralAsia
LatinAmericaCaribbean
MiddleEastNorthAfrica
SouthAsia
SubSaharanAfrica
NorthAmerica
NAFTA
EuropeDeveloped
Developed
Developing
World
2050 2030
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012b
Irrigation Water Supply Reliability under BAU and Bioeconomy in 2000, 2030, 2050
Region 20002030 2050
BAU BIO BAU BIO
East Asia & Pacific 0.754 0.631 0.714 0.554 0.675Eastern Europe & Central Asia 0.668 0.617 0.666 0.515 0.655Latin America & Caribbean 0.911 0.933 0.954 0.936 0.973Middle East & North Africa 0.986 0.975 0.978 0.972 0.975
South Asia 0.706 0.622 0.679 0.517 0.645
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.825 0.747 0.785 0.715 0.780
North America 0.978 0.984 0.990 0.987 1.000
NAFTA 0.983 0.988 0.993 0.991 1.000
Europe Developed 0.974 0.997 0.999 0.994 0.996
Developed 0.958 0.961 0.972 0.956 0.982
Developing 0.749 0.670 0.728 0.592 0.705
World 0.766 0.692 0.747 0.619 0.726
IWSR - ratio of annual irrigation water supply to demandSource: Rosegrant et al. 2012b
Percent Change in World Prices of Cereals between BAU and Bioeconomy Scenario, 2050
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Rice Wheat Maize OtherGrains
Millet Sorghum
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
ange
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012b
Percent Change in Per Capita Cereal Consumption between BAU and Bioeconomy Scenario, 2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
ange
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012b
Percent Change in Population at Risk of Hunger Between BAU and Bioeconomy Scenario, 2050
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
East Asia &Pacific
Europe &Central Asia
Latin America& Caribbean
Middle East& North
Africa
South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
ange
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012b
Conclusions
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Policies for Water and Food Security
1. Accelerate investments in agricultural R&D for productivity growth
2. Promote complementary policies and investments
3. Reform economic policies
4. Implement new water policies
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Invest in technologies for Crop and livestock breeding
• High-yielding varieties• Biotic- and abiotic-stress
resistant varieties Modernize breeding programs in
developing countries through provision of genomics, high throughput gene-sequencing, bio-informatics and computer
GMOs where genetic variation does not exist in the crop • Nitrogen use efficiency• Drought, heat and salinity
tolerance• Insect and disease resistance
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1. Accelerate Investments in Agricultural R&D for smallholder productivity
Global public spending on agric. R&D, 2008 (%)
Source: ASTI 2012
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2. Promote Complementary Policies and Investments
Invest in rural infrastructure and irrigation
Increase access to high-value supply chains and markets e.g. fruits, vegetables, and milk
Regulatory reform: Reduce hurdles to approval and release of new cultivars and technologies
• Remove impediments (e.g. restrictive “notified” crop lists, excessive testing and certification requirements, foreign investment barriers, ad hoc biosafety decision-making)
Extension of farming systems: minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest management, precision agriculture
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Support open trading regimes to share climate risk
Use market-based approaches to manage water and environmental services combined with secure property rights
Reduce subsidies that distort production decisions and encourage water use beyond economically appropriate levels
• Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies
• Savings invested in activities that boost farm output and income
3. Reform Economic Policies
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4. Implement New Water Policies
Establishment of secure water rights
Design and implementation of economic incentives for efficient use of agricultural water
Policy reform to deal with water quality and environmental problems
Enhance water security through on-farm crop management and crop breeding for water productivity
Develop energy- and GHG-conserving water policies
Design and implementation of long term investment strategies for irrigation, hydropower, and water supply and sanitation