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Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO Global Asset Management Smart Beta: The Future of Your Portfolio

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Page 1: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded FundsBMO Global Asset Management

Smart Beta: The Future of Your Portfolio

Page 2: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s
Page 3: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Superior Smart Beta

Innovative Speciality Solutions

Effective Core

Solutions

Comprehensive Fixed Income

*Calculations based on Bloomberg data†CREDO Research February 2013 Loyalty Ranking Survey of 33 financial services firms

BMO ETFs

Page 4: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

BMO ETFs – Our Strategy

Page 5: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

“ Global assets in strategic beta ETFs have increased by 87% in two years and now account

for US$380 billion” Morningstar data

Source: Morningstar Canada – “Are strategic-beta ETFs a threat to active fund managers? “ Feb 2015

Page 6: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• Rules based investing built around factors that have exhibited enhanced risk adjusted returns over the long term

• Can be market or trading factors, fundamental balance sheet factors, or multi-factor strategies

• Also known as strategic beta and enhanced beta

Smart Beta Defined

Page 7: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Smart Beta

Active Management

Complex & Costly

PassiveInvesting

MarketReturn

Rule Based & Low Cost

Active Return

• Smart beta brings together the best of both worlds by blending the benefits of traditional market capitalization indexing with active management

• Smart beta is based on finding outcome oriented solutions

• Smart beta can be used as either complimentary or replacement strategies

Smart Beta Strategies

Page 8: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

PortfolioPortfolioPortfolioPortfolioReturnReturnReturnReturn

SectorBeta

BetaBetaBetaBeta

AlphaAlphaAlphaAlphaFactorFactorFactorFactorBetaBetaBetaBeta

AlphaAlphaAlphaAlpha

Country Beta

1970s1970s1970s1970s 1980s1980s1980s1980s 2000s2000s2000s2000s

RegionalBeta

• 1970s: Total return approach

• 1980s: Deconstructing manager value add (alpha) from market returns (beta)

• Today:Deconstructing alpha into multiple factor components plus security selection

Beta Deconstruction

Page 9: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• Market capitalization investing still makes up the majority of passive assets, smart beta strategies are gaining momentum

• Low-volatility and dividend weighted strategies have been the most popular

• Smart Beta equity global assets have quadrupled since 20081

Current Assets (US$B) Current Assets (US$B) Current Assets (US$B) Current Assets (US$B) 2013 Flows (US$B) 2013 Flows (US$B) 2013 Flows (US$B) 2013 Flows (US$B)

1 Data as of November 2014 - Global ETF Assets (US) , Data – CETFASource: Investor Economics Insight January 2015 Annual ReviewEmergence of Smart Beta ETFs in Canada

2012 2014

# of Smart Beta ETFs 43 64

Assets in Smart Beta ETFs (millions) 4,914 8,676

Smart Beta Growth

Page 10: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• More recent strategies either combine single factor portfolios, or use multi-factor holistic portfolios

Passive Index Fund

Equally Weighted

Market Factor Based

Fundamentally Weighted

Multi-Factor

Smart beta strategies can be customized to meet investor demand

Smart Beta Evolution

Page 11: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• Deconstruct portfolio performance to geographic, sector, and factor biases to isolate security selection skills

• Create a modular portfolio based on views of market efficiency

• Complete a core-satellite approach

• Correct biases of a managed portfolio

1. Portfolio risk profile

2. Portfolio factor profile

3. Portfolio pricing

ModifyModifyModifyModify

Smart Beta & Active Management

Page 12: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• Research has shown that six key factors have historically earned a persistent premium over longer time periods relative to traditional market cap-weighted portfolios

• These factors play an important role in portfolio construction and security selection

SizeSizeSizeSize

YieldYieldYieldYield

MomentumMomentumMomentumMomentum

ValueValueValueValue

Low VolatilityLow VolatilityLow VolatilityLow Volatility

QualityQualityQualityQuality

It is possible to capture Value & Momentum by screening for other desirable attributes:� Dividend & Low Volatility

reflect Value:� Quality picks up the

Momentum benefits

Smart Beta Factors

Page 13: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Superior Smart Beta:BMO ETFs

Page 14: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• Selected factors that deliver long term outperformance

• Effective portfolio construction – can be used a core portfolio holding

• Targeted exposures across various regions and countries

• Reduced portfolio risk

BMO ETFs is one of the global leaders in smart-beta solutions, with about 25% of our global ETF AUM in various factor-based and smart-beta

products1

1 BMO Global Asset Management – Feb 2015

BMO ETFs Smart Beta Focus

Page 15: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• Effective exposure across market cycles

Why Quality?

Page 16: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Fundamental Screening Variable

1. High Return on Equity – Screens for companies that have solid fundamentals

2. Stable year-over-year Earnings Growth – Identifies growing companies are positioned to consistently outperform over the long term

3. Low Financial Leverage – Identified companies with low volatility

ZEQMSCI Europe High

Quality Index Hedged to CAD ETF

ZUQMSCI US High Quality

Index ETF

ZGQMSCI ACWI High Quality Index ETF

Quality

Page 17: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Factors 1. Large Cap Equity Universe - dividends

2. Dividend Growth – upside potential

• Based on 3 year dividend growth rate

• Illustrated company’s willingness to pay and grow dividends

3. Dividend Payout Sustainability – avoid yield traps

• 5 year analysis and weighted to the most recent year

• Forward looking consideration

4. Yield Weighted – enhanced yield

• Sector and security cap applied to ensure diversified portfolio

Focused on higher yields with sustainable growth

ZUDUS Dividend Hedged

to CAD ETF

ZDY/ZDY.UUS Dividend ETF

ZDVCanadian Dividend

ETF

ZDIInternational Dividend

ETF

Dividend

Page 18: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Dividend Strategies – What to Look For?

Avoid yield trapsAvoid yield traps

• Dividend strategies can be viewed as a core holding for income oriented investors

• Is the dividend sustainable?

• Look for a measure of growing payments

• Look for a measure of financial health and payout ratios

• Where are the risks?

• Dividend cuts

• Sector biases

• Capitalization biases

Avoid the surprise of unintended biases

Page 19: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Dividend Strategies – BMO’s Approach

• Yield weighted to emphasize high dividend payers

• Constituents screened for sustainability of dividend payment

• Overall portfolio constraints and controls to ensure no undue concentration or biases

ZUDUS Dividend Hedged

to CAD ETF

ZDY/ZDY.UUS Dividend ETF

ZDVCanadian Dividend

ETF

ZDIInternational Dividend

ETF

Page 20: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• Ability to target a specific portfolio risk that is lower than the board market

• Lower volatility stocks have historical outperformed the broad market over the long-term

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

ZLB S&P/TSX Capped Composite

ZLU/ZLU.ULow Volatility US

Equity ETF

ZLBLow Volatility

Canadian Equity ETF

Source: Morningstar as of Feb 2015 – Data based on monthly returns from Nov 2011 – Feb 2015

Why Low Volatility?

Page 21: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• Beta weighted – smarter portfolio construction tool than standard deviation or other risk reduction approaches

• Balances short term trends with long term risks as beta is measured over five years with an emphasis on the most recent year

Low Volatility

Page 22: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

• Selective strategy for more developed sectors to reduce security concentration typically found in other sector based ETFs

• Helps to reduce single security risk

ZREEqual Weight REITs

Index ETF

ZBKEqual Weight US Banks Index ETF

ZINS&P/TSX Equal

Weight Industrials Index ETF

ZUHEqual Weight US

Health Care Hedged to CAD Index ETF

0%0%0%0%20%20%20%20%40%40%40%40%60%60%60%60%80%80%80%80%100%100%100%100%CNRCNRCNRCNR CPCPCPCP OtherOtherOtherOtherBMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Industrials Index ETF (ZIN)

Bloomberg - Data as of Feb 2015

Equal Weight

Page 23: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

ComparisonsBMO Low Volatility

Canadian Equity ETFiShares MSCI Canada Min.

Volatility Index ETFPowerShares S&P/TSX Composite

Low Volatility Index ETF First Asset MSCI Canada Low Risk Weighted ETF

Ticker ZLB XMV TLV RWC

Index ProprietyMSCI Canada Minimum

Volatility (CAD)S&P/TSX Composite Low Volatility

Index MSCI Canada Low Risk

Weighted ETF

Weighting

Methodology

Beta Weighted • Ranks securities using

5 year beta

Variance• Optimized for lowest

absolute risk

Standard Deviation • Securities are ranked by 1 year

standard deviation

Variance • Ranks securities using a

3 year historical return

Additional Screens

Liquidity & Market Cap Market Cap - Market Cap

# of Holdings 40 75 50 95

Top 3 SectorsFinancials – 21.7%

Cons. Staples – 18.9%Energy – 14.2%

Financials – 41.1%Energy – 18.0%

Cons. Staples – 9.5%

Financials – 66.6%Utilities – 8.5%

Cons. Disc. – 7.2%

Financials – 38.6%Energy – 18.1%

Cons. Disc. – 8.3%

Sectors Limits 35% None None None

AUM 485 million 23 million 48 million 6 million

MER 40 bps 33 bps 33bps 60 bps

TER 1bps 1 bps 4bps 1bps

Holdings Physical Physical Physical Physical

Source: BMO ETFs, iShares, Poweshares & First Asset – Feb 2015

Page 24: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Comparisons

BMO Canadian Dividend ETF iShares Canadian Select

Dividend Index ETFiShares S&P/TSX Canadian

Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF

Ticker ZDV XDV CDZ

Index Proprietary Dow Jones Canada Select

DividendS&P/TSX Canadian Dividend

Aristocrats

WeightingMethodology

Yield Yield Yield

Additional Screen

3 year dividend growth rate5 year analysis of payout ratio

with forward looking consideration

3 year dividend growth rate 5 year dividend coverage ratio

Non- negative EPS

5 consecutive years of increased dividend

Min. C$ 300 million market cap.

AUM 567 million 1.4 billion 1 billion

MER 40 bps 55 bps 66 bps

TER 4 bps 0 bps 3 bps

# of Holdings 51 31 74

Sector Cap 35% - -

Top 3 Sectors Financials – 31.9%

Energy – 26.5%Cons. Disc. – 11.9%

Financials – 55.5%Comm. – 13.4%Energy – 11.8%

Financials – 25.0%Energy – 22.1%

Industrials – 14.5%

Source: BMO ETFs & iShares – Feb 2015

Page 25: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Alternative Strategies – Covered Calls

• Generates additional income while reducing portfolio volatility, making covered calls income substitutes for lower yielding products

• Benefits: additional yield provides limited downside protection, outperforms in a down or flat market

• Costs: will underperform in strong short term runs, or potentially in longer choppy markets, as the portfolio return is capped by the strike prices of the options

• Return profile: similar long term returns to traditional portfolios, with lowered risk levels

Page 26: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Covered Calls – Where Does the Yield Come From?

Portfolio Dividend Yield – look for a good yield base, a portfolio with dividend yield

Portfolio Volatility – avoid high volatility, while these securities will have higher premiums, they are

subject to large downside moves. Leave these securities to aggressive growth investors

Option Selection – Pick shorter dated, OTM options. Look for options with 1 to 2 months to expiry to

take advantage of time decay and to reset the portfolio in rising markets. OTM options allow for some growth.

Percentage Written – be aware of how much of the portfolio is overwritten. By not writing on the entire

portfolio, more upside is available.

Page 27: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Covered Calls – Where Are the Risks?

• Large market movements and volatility – a covered call strategy outperforms in flat, down, or moderately rising markets. It underperforms in quickly rising or choppy markets.

• Overly Aggressive Call Writing – an over emphasis on yield based on writing too close to the money in combination with writing on a high percentage of the portfolio, may deplete the invested capital.

• Promised or Expected Yields – the calls are selected based on premium levels and volatility. The writing strategy should be dynamic by responding to market conditions, to avoid capital depletion.

Page 28: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

Covered Calls – BMO’s Implementation

• We target a sustainable yield as we pay only the income received

• As volatility rises we write further out of the money, as volatility falls, we write closer to the money

• Calls are written 1 to 2 months to expiry to maximize time decay

• We write on 50% of the portfolio to allow for upside participation

� ZWH/ZWH.U BMO US High Dividend � ZWB BMO Canadian Banks � ZWU BMO Utilities� ZWA BMO Dow 30 Hgd to CAD

Page 29: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s

� BMO team developed several ‘ETF world firsts’Recent Highlights:

• Launched and manage over 62 ETF Disclaimer s different beta strategies across equities, fixed income and derivative strategies

• Offer the most comprehensive line-up of fixed income beta strategies

• Smart beta solutions that provide effective long term exposures based on in-depth security selection and risk mitigating portfolio construction

• A global leader in innovation, developing solutions such as Covered Call Strategies, Preferred Share Ladder, Low Volatility and alternative beta ETFs

• Efficient broad market ETFs with industry leading benchmarks at market leading pricing

BMO ETF Advantage

Page 30: Mark Webster, Vice President, Exchange Traded Funds BMO ...€¦ · • Smart beta or “factor investing” is a strategy that institutional investors have been using since the 1970’s