mark your calendar for 2016 events! · 2020-02-21 · chronicles november 2015 page 3 by joel...
TRANSCRIPT
November2015VolumeXV,No.2
T h e D e m i s e o f E v i d e n c e - B a s e d P o l i c y M a k i n g : T h e C a s e o f I m m i g r a t i o n
ByWayneA.CorneliusandSanfordLakoff
DicksonProfessorsofPoliticalScienceEmeritus
Evidence‐basedpublicpolicy‐makingseemstohavegoneoutthewindowinrecentyears.Inonedo‐mainafteranother–globalclimatechange,economicpolicy(especiallytheeffectsofde icitspendingandraisingtheminimumwage),thecost/bene itratioofchildhoodim‐munizations,andothers‐‐legisla‐tors,otherelectedof icials,andevensomefederaljudgeshavechosentoignorethesettledscienti icconsen‐susandproceedasifoperatinginaparalleluniverse.Immigrationpolicyisanespeciallyglaringcaseinpoint.
Whatexplainsthisstateofaf‐fairs?
“Humannature”–i.e.,self‐interest,habit,ideological ixation,andprejudice–isverymuchinplay.Whenscienti ic indingscontradictconventionalwisdominsomewaythatseemsthreatening,theyarelikelytoberesisteduntil(asthehis‐torianofscienceThomasKuhnshowed)anewgenerationadoptsaparadigmitseldersrejected.Eventu‐ally,theweightofevidenceover‐comestheinitialresistance.TheindingsofCopernicus,Galileo,and
Darwinareclassicexamples.Inre‐centyears,inconvenientscienti ictruthsseemtofaceanequallyuphillbattletoshapepublicpolicy.
Take,forexample,themedicalindingthatsmokingposesserioushealthrisks.TheSurgeonGeneral’sreportappearedinthe1950sbutwasresistedbecauseitwassaidtorelyonepidemiologicalevidenceratherthanetiology.ThetobaccocompaniessupportedtheresistancebyhiringtheirownresearchersandbuyingCongressmen.New indingsandariseinhealthawarenesseven‐tuallyworedowntheopposition,butCongressdoledout$1.5billioninsubsidiestotobaccogrowersfrom1995‐2012andtwentyper‐centofAmericansarestilltooad‐dictedtoquit.
Thecontroversyovergenetically
modi iedfoodsprovidesanotherexample.Thepreponderanceofscienti icevidenceshowsthatthesehavegreatbene itsandminimal,manageablerisks,especiallyinanerawhenclimatechangethreatensthestabilityoftheworld’sfoodsupplyandhungerstalksthedevel‐opingworld,provokingmassiveemigration.ButinEurope,GMfoodsarestillbanned,andherethereisademandforlabelingsothatconsumerscanchoosetoig‐norescienti icevidence.
Globalwarmingremainscon‐troversialintheUnitedStates,largelybecause,asinthecaseoftobacco,economicinterestsareplayingupchallengestothescienceinthefaceofwarningsfromthou‐
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
TheDemiseofEvidence‐BasedPolicyMaking…….……..…...1
ABrie ingonMedicarepartBRates…………………………….3
Anecdotage…………………...........6
MannyRotenberg,PhotographerLesvisagesdeParis………7
Markyourcalendar……...……..8
Markyourcalendarfor2016events!
DistinguishedProfessorofSociologyAndrewScullTopic:"MadnessandMeaning:Imagesanddiscussionabouttherelationshipbetweenmadness,culture,andmeaning."
Wednesday,January13,2016,3:30‐5:00PMIda&CecilGreenFacultyClub
RichardC.Atkinson,UCPresidentEmeritusandUCSDChancellorEmeritus
Topic: "ThehistoryofUCSDandtheUCSystemfromhisuniqueperspective."Toseewhathehastalkedandwrittenaboutinrecentyears,visithiswebsite:www.rca.ucsd.edu.
Wednesday,February10,2016,3:30‐5PMIda&CecilGreenFacultyClub
…Economicinterestsareplayingupchallengestosci-enceinthefaceofwarningsfromthousandsofclimatescientists.Theyhavehelpfromfree-marketideologists(liketheeditorsofTheWallStreetJournal)whoseethescienceasaninsidiousefforttopromotestateregulationandbringdowncapitalismbyresearchershungryforgovernmentgrants.
cont.onpage2
EmeritiandRetirementAssociationsHolidayParty
Saturday,December51-4PM
Ida&CecilGreenFacultyClub
Fabulous Holiday Buffet & No-Host Bar $10 per member
(non-members: $50)
Please mail your check to: UCSD Emeriti Association 9500 Gilman Dr., # 0020 La Jolla, CA 92093-0020
SanfordLakoff Editor
SuzanCiof i ManagingEditor
MelGreen AssistantEditor
HenryPowell PresidentMarkAppelbaum VicePresident
PhyllisMirsky Secretary/TreasurerJoelDimsdale PastPresident,Awards
MembersatLarge:MargueriteJackson,RobertKnox,CarolPlantamura,,RogerSpragg,JoeWatson,andGillWilliamson.ExOf icio:DickAttiyeh,RepresentativetoCUCEA,JackFisher,Historian,BooneHellmann,Representative,UCSDRetirementAssociation,SandyLakoff,Editor,Chronicles,SuzanCiof i,Direc‐tor,RetirementResourceCenter,andMaxineBloor,LiaisontoOceanids.
Forwardqueries,changesinmailing/emailaddressto:SuzanCiof i,Director,UCSDRetirementResourceCenter,UCSD,9500GilmanDrive,#0020,LaJolla,CA92093-0020.
Telephone:(858)534-4724,[email protected]
NOVEMBER2015
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
Page2 NOVEMBER2015Chronicles
sandsofclimatescientists.Theyhavehelpfromfree‐marketideolo‐gists(liketheeditorsofTheWallStreetJournal)whoseethescienceasaninsidiousefforttopromotestateregulationandbringdowncapitalismbyresearchershungryforgovernmentgrants.OklahomaSen.JamesInhofe,whohascalledthisscience“thegreatesthoax,”chairstherelevantcommitteeintheSenate,andthecoalindustryhasmountedasustainedlegalchallengetotheEPA’srelativelymodestregulations.
Politiciansdancearoundthescienti icconsensusbyassertingthat,conveniently,theylackthecredentialstoevaluatetheevi‐dence.(“Iamnotascientist”hasbeenthepreferredresponseofRepublicanpoliticians.).Or,theycherry‐pickevidence.Whenpoliti‐ciansdiscoverasinglescholarwhoseresearchseemstosupporttheirviews,theyseizeuponthisasjusti icationfortheirideologically‐derivedposition.Themediaoftenfallintothisgame,sincereportingonadeviant indingisthelatestversionoftheman‐bites‐dogstory.
Immigrationpolicyposesanexceptionallyclearchoicebetweenaccumulatedscienti icevidenceandideologicallydrivenagendas.Thereareseveralfactorsatplayinshapingpublicopinionandpublicpolicyinthisarea,someofthemgoingbackmanyyears.
Nativismisasoldanideologyastherepublic.NolessapublicigurethanBenjaminFranklinwasthe irsttowavethebloodyshirtof“unassimilable”immigrants.Histargetwasnewly‐arrivedGermans,whosesmall,German‐languagepublicationswerecompetingwithFranklin’snewspaperbusinessinPennsylvania.(WeallknowhowpoorlytheGermansassimilated.ThinkofJohnBoehner,TimothyGeithner,ChuckHagel,WorldBankPresidentRobertZoellick,
RepublicanNationalCommitteeChairmanReincePriebus,andDon‐aldTrump–grandsonofanimmi‐grantbornFriedrichDrumpf.
Racismandanti‐Semitismdrovepassageoftherestrictiveimmigra‐tionlawsof1921,1924,and1929.Anti‐Mexicanprejudice,which irstbecamepoliticallyin luentialinthe1920s,remainsapotentforceto‐day,asTrumphasdemonstrated.EventhedistinguishedHarvardpo‐liticalscientistSamuelHuntington,inthelastyearsofhiscareer,stokedpublicfearsthatlarge‐scaleMexicanimmigrationwillinevitablyunder‐minethecountry’scohesionandpromote“bifurcation”inlanguageandotherrespects.
Butwhatarethefacts?Amas‐sivenewsurveyoftherelevantevi‐dencebyapanelofexperts,ledbyHarvardsociologistMaryC.Waters,publishedinSeptember2015,bytheNationalAcademiesofSciences,En‐gineering,andMedicine,concludesthatthenewestgenerationofimmi‐grants,includingMexicans,isassim‐ilatingasfastandascomprehensive‐lyaspreviousgenerationsofimmi‐grants.Theirintegrationincreasesovertime“acrossallmeasurableoutcomes,”theauthors ind.There‐portspeci icallyrejectsthewide‐spreadnotionsthattoday’simmi‐grantslackthedesiretolearnEng‐lish,thattheycommitcrimesmorefrequentlythannon‐immigrantAmericans,andthattheyusuallyarriveinpoorhealthandburdenpublichealthcaresystems.
BeyondpanderingtonegativestereotypesofMexicanimmigrantsandignoranceoftheirimportancetotheeconomy,politicians’resistancetoscienti icevidenceisbeingfedbyaperceiveddemographicthreat–speci ically,thefearamongRepubli‐cansthatthein luxofMexicansandotherLatinoimmigrantswillpro‐videgrowingsupportforDemocrats.RuyTeixera,apoliticalscientist,hasnotedthattheHispanicvotein‐
creasesbyonepercentagepointeveryyear,anditisoverwhelminglyDemo‐cratic.Republicans’fearsareoffsetsomewhatbytheirhopesthattheGOPcanappealtoLatinosintermsofcul‐turalvalues,andthatasmoreLatinosenterthemiddleclasstheywillfollowIrishandotherCatholicsintotheRe‐publicancolumn.ButtheexampleofCalifornia,areliablybluestatewhosebluenessclearlyre lectsthegrowthoftheMexico‐originelectorate,isnotlostonRepublicanstryingtoprotecttheircontrolofotherstates.
Whenitcomestopolicyoptionsforcontrollingthe lowofMexicanandotherunauthorizedmigrants,thegapbetweenscienti icevidenceandtheclaimsofpublicof icialsisevenmoreyawning.Formorethanadec‐ade, ieldinterviewswithtensofthou‐sandsofMexicanmigrantsandpoten‐tialmigrants,conductedsince2005byUCSD’sMexicanMigrationFieldRe‐searchProgramandtheresearchteamofsociologistDouglasMasseyatPrinceton,havedemonstratedtheineffectivenessoftheobstaclecoursethatwehavecreatedalongthesouth‐westernborder.Morethannineoutoftenwhocometotheborderstillsuc‐ceedeventuallyingainingentry,ifnotonthe irsttrythenonthesecondorthird,regardlessoftheirpointoforigininMexico.Fencescanalwaysbeclimbedover(oftenusingladderssup‐pliedbypeople‐smugglers),dugun‐der,orgonearound,includingMr.Trump’s“impenetrable”wall.
Nevertheless,advocatesofspend‐ingbillionsmoreonphysicalfencingclaimthatitcanbeaneffectivedeter‐renttounauthorizedimmigration.Again,theevidencefrominterviewswithmigrantsandpotentialmigrantsbeliestheclaim.Today’sprospectivemigrantsarefarmoreconcernedaboutexposingthemselvestoviolenceperpetratedbydruglordsandkidnap‐pinggangsinMexico’sborderlandsthanaboutborderfences.InUCSD’s2015surveyofpotentialmigrants,
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
cont.onpage3
Les visages de Paris MannyRotenberg,PhotographerAselectionofhisimagescurrentlyondisplayatthe
Ida&CecilGreenFacultyClubExhibitiondates:October‐December2015
CHRONICLES NOVEMBER2015 PAGE3
ByJoelDimsdaleProfessorEmeritusofPsychiatryandFacultyRetirementLiaison
“Otime,thoumustuntanglethis,notI.Itistoohardaknotformet'untie.”―WilliamShakespeare, TwelfthNightMedicarepartBrateswillin‐creasesharplyfor2016‐‐byabout20%‐‐fornewenrolleesandenrol‐leeswhosemodi iedadjustedgrossincome(MAGI)exceeds$85,000/year.Actually,theincreasewasoriginallyforecasttobe52%,butsurprisingly,Congresspassedatrulylastminutecompromisethatspreadstheincreaseoverthenext
ABrie ingonMedicarepartBRates
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
coupleyears.IthoughtIwouldex‐plainhowthiscameaboutbecauseifweremaininazerocostoflivingadjustment(COLA)environmentforanotheryear,theproblemswillmagnify.
Tosimplifydatapresentation,thisanalysispresentssinglecover‐ageforaMedicareretireeonthe
university’sBlueShieldPPO,aninsuranceproductthatiswidelysubscribedbyretirees.
SocialSecurity(SS)calculatesitsCOLAretrospectivelybasedonanindexofconsumerexpensescalledtheCPI‐W,butseniorshavetheirindexbettermappedbytheCPI‐E,whichismoresensi‐tivetotheirnotablyhigherhealthcareexpenses.Thereisconsiderablediscussionabouthowtheconsumerpriceindexshouldbecalculated,buttheCPI‐Whasbeenvirtually latthispastyear;thus,therewillbenoSS
CHRONICLES NOVEMBER2015 PAGE6
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
only7.6percentcited“elmuro”(thecommontermfortoday’sborderwall)astheirtopconcern,com‐paredwith48percentwhofearedbeingkidnappedbyorganizedcrim‐inalgangsorassaultedbyborderbanditswhilemakingtheirwaytotheUnitedStates.
Whatexplainstheblindfaithofpoliticiansinmilitarizingtheborderasthekeytocontrollingimmigra‐tion?Iftheyactuallybelievethatinvestingmoreheavilyinthisformofenforcementiscost‐effective,whereisthesupportingevidence?Themainpointisthatmorethanadecadeofcarefully‐executed, ield‐work‐based,multi‐methodresearchhasyieldedwhatcanproperlybecalledarock‐solidacademicconsen‐sus,i.e.,thatthemassiveborderen‐forcementbuild‐upinwhichwehavebeenengagedsince1993is(1)ineffectiveinkeepingundocument‐edmigrantsoutofthecountry,(2)anextremelyweakdeterrenttopro‐spectivemigrants,and(3)hashad
hugeunintendedconsequences,mostnotablykeepingmillionsofundocumentedmigrantscagedin‐sidetheUnitedStateswithanincen‐tivetoputdownroots.Thislastcon‐sequencewillhaveamajor,long‐term iscalimpact,especiallyforhealthcareandeducation.
Theexpertconsensusandsup‐portingevidencewerereportedinamajorstudyoftheef icacyofU.S.immigrationcontrolpolicybyapan‐elofsixteenofthecountry'sleadingimmigrationresearchers,convenedbytheNationalResearchCoun‐cil.Contrarytoof icialclaimsthatthesharpdownturninnewmigra‐tionfromMexicosince2007isafunctionofstrongerborderenforce‐ment,theNRCpanelfoundthat“rising[border]enforcementdoesnotseemtohaveplayedasigni i‐cantroleinloweringthelikelihoodofundocumentedmigration.”Thepanel’sreport,publishedin2011bytheNationalResearchCouncil,wasignoredbythemediaandthena‐
tionalpoliticalclass.
Partoftheblameundoubtedlylieswithineffectivecommunica‐tionofresearch indingsbytheacademicswhoproducethem(and/ortheirpublishers).Butevenwithsustained,timelyeffortstogetresearchresultsintothepublicdomainviainterviewswithmediareporters,op‐edarticles,Congressionaltestimony,andoth‐ervehicles,politicaldebatesinthisandotherimportantareasareproceedingwithlittleornorefer‐encetosettledempiricalresearchindings.Thecountryisnotbene‐itingfromthisdisjuncture.
Recentlycollecteddataonmi-grants’border-crossingexperienc-esarepresentedinchapter1ofWayneA.Cornelius,etal.,eds.,TheNewFaceofMexicanMigration(LaJolla,CA:UCSDCenterforCom-parativeImmigrationStudies),availableinearlyDecember2015fromAmazon.com.
BySandyLakoff
FeeltheBernComeTrueOK,here’smydream.BernieSandersbecomestheDemocraticnomineeforpresidentwhenHilla‐ryClintonbowsout,afterrealiz‐ingshehasalreadylivedintheWhiteHouselongenoughandcanhaveamoresatisfyingcareerhostingSaturdayNightLive.Sand‐ersgoesontodefeattheRepubli‐cancandidateDonaldTrumpinalandslide.(Trumpthendeclareshis ifthbankruptcysoasnottohavetopaycampaigndebts,stif ‐inghisstaffersjustlikehisrun‐ningmateCarlyFiorinaoncedid.)AttheinauguralinJanuary,theBernidictionisofferedbytheLeaderoftheNewYorkSocietyforEthicalCulture.ThenSandersbe‐comesthe irstpresidenttobesworninonhisfamilycopyofTheIntelligentWoman’sGuidetoSo-cialismandCapitalismbyGeorge“Bernie”Shaw.Inhisinauguraladdress,thePresident‐ElectremindspeoplethatGeorgeWashingtonwasaMasonandsaysthattheMasonsmayhaveinspiredKarlMarx’sslo‐gan,“Fromeachaccordingtohisabilities,toeachaccordingtohisneeds,”whichiswhytheywereblamedfortheFrenchandAmeri‐canrevolutions.Healsoquotesfrommylatestessay:“Extremeinequalityofwealthandincome...createssocialdivisionsandten‐sionsthataredangerousnotonlyforsocietiesintransitiontode‐mocracybutalsoforthoseinwhichithasa irmfoot‐ing.”(Lakoff,“InequalityasaDan‐gertoDemocracy,”PoliticalSci-enceQuarterly,fall2015.It’smydream,remember!)Hepromises
tointroducetwonewconstitution‐alamendments,onegivingCon‐gressthepowertoregulatecam‐paignspending,theothertorevisetheSecondAmendmenttoallowforguncontrol(explainingthathenowrepresentsthewholecountryandnotjustaruralstate).AndhewarnsthathewillsendMarinestoannextheCaymanIslandsiftheydon’tstopservingasanoffshorehavenforAmericantax‐dodgers.ThereceptionontheWhiteHouselawnfeaturespancakestoppedwithVermontMapleSyrupandBenandJerry’sicecream,alsoshippedinfromVermont.Theen‐tertainmentisaHootenannyinwhichBobDylanandJoanBaezstrumguitars(un‐electri iedtohelpcontrolglobalwarming)andleadthesingingofsucholdfavor‐itesasTheBalladofJoeHill(theWobblytroubadour):IdreamtIsawJoeHilllastnight,Aliveasyouorme.“SaysI,butJoe,you’retenyearsdead.”“Ineverdied,”sayshe,“FromSanDiegouptoMaine,ineverymineandmill,Whereworkingmendefendtheirrights.That’swhereyou’ll indJoeHill.”OnDay1ofhispresidency,SandersissuesanExecutiveOrdersendingtheDodgersbacktoBrooklyn,thePadrestoLA,andtheYankeestoSanDiego.ThePresidentsaysheisdoingsotosymbolizehisdeterminationtoreduceinequalityinAmerica.Then,inarepriseofFDR’sOneHundredDays,hesendsablizzardoflegislationtoCongress(towhichallmembersoftheFreedomCaucushavelostreelection).Onebillwouldraisetheminimumwageto$15.AnotherwouldhavethePostOf icecashchecksandprovidesavingsaccounts(asthey
doinFrance,GermanyandJapan),sothatlowwageearnerswouldnotbegougedbypay‐daylendersanddeniedsavingsaccountsbybanks.Athirdwouldcreateapub‐lic‐privateinfrastructureBernie‐bankto ixallthebridges,roads,tunnels,etc.,andstimulatebusi‐nessandemployment.Afourthwouldraisetaxesontheverywealthy‐‐highenoughtoprovidehealthcareforall,freetuitionatpubliccolleges,rooftopsolarpan‐els,andsubsidizedeggcreamsmadeonlywithFox’sU‐betchoco‐latesyrup(madeinBrooklyn).It’safreecountry,right?WecanallhaveanydreamourREMsleepcomesupwith.IhopeIdon’thavetosharemynightmareofwhathappensifhisopponentwins.I’lljustquotemybesidelexi‐con:
Trumpery,n.Somethingde‐ceptivelyshowy,hence,vainorvaluelessthings;rubbish.Webster’sCollegiateDictionary
***TheEditor’sDementia!:ApologiestoCecilLytleandotherreadersperplexedbythegarbledmathinthe“DementiaQuiz”inthelastissues.Thisisthecorrectversion:
TAKE1000ANDADD40TOIT.NOWADDANOTHER1000NOWADD30.
ADDANOTHER1000.NOWADD20.NOWADDANOTHER1000.NOWADD10.WHATISTHETO‐TAL?
DIDYOUGET5000?THECORRECTANSWERISACTUALLY4100.
Anecdotage
cont.onpage4
CHRONICLESNOVEMBER2015 PAGE4
COLAincreasein2016.Thisisarareoccurrence(onlythethirdtimein40years)overthedecadesofSS,butithastellingconsequenc‐esforMedicare.
MedicarecalculatespartBchargesprospectivelybasedonhealthcareestimatedcostsinthecomingyear.Thesecosthavebeenrising,andhistorically,since1980,Medicarepremiumcostshavein‐creasedtwiceasrapidlyasincreas‐estotheSocialSecuritycost‐of‐living(COLA)adjustmentsbene‐its.
CongressrecognizedthatifMedicarepremiumsincreasedmorethantheCOLAsocialsecuritybene its,itcouldseriouslyhurttheincomeofseniorswhodependprimarilyontheirSocialSecuritychecks.Itthereforeenacteda“holdharmless”clausethatinessenceprotects70%ofexistingsocialse‐curityrecipients‐‐thosewithlowerincomes‐‐fromhavingtheirSocialSecurityincomesreducedbyhigh‐erMedicarepremiums.
Butthe“holdharmless”clauseshiftsthelower‐incomeretirees’costsontotheothersinMedicare,therebyincreasingtheircostsevenmore.Thesearesomeofthe
groupsthatarenotheldharmlessbytheclause:
NewSocialSecuritybene iciar‐ies,evenlowerincomeones.
IndividualswhodonothavetheirMedicarepaymentsauto‐maticallydeductedfromtheirSocialSecuritypayments.
Individualswithhigherin‐comes(comprising6%ofsen‐iorsonMedicare).
Whatwillhappenin2016?
In2016,MedicarepartBwaspredictedtoincreaseby$54permonth.ForthosewithhigherMod‐i iedAdjustedGrossIncome(MAGI),theincreasewouldhavebeenmuchsteeperbecausetheywouldbepayingnotonlyfortheir
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
ownincreasedcostsbutalsoforthoseofthe70%ofSocialSe‐curityrecipientswhowouldbeheldharm‐less.Thetablebelowliststhe iveincomebandsfor2015andtheaccompanyingpartBandDpremi‐ums.
Witheverysuccessiveincomeband,thepremiumincreasesbyabout50%,ascomparedtothelowestincomeband.
Duetothelastminutebudg‐etarycompromise,theexactdol‐laramountsfor2016partBpre‐miumsareunclearasoftoday(10/30/15)butareexpectedtobe~20%higher.PartDincome‐relatedassessmentsareproject‐edtobeonlyslightlyincreasedinthecomingyear(byabout$1ineachincomeband).
So,howmanyemeritiwillbeaffectedbythesesubstantialin‐creasedpremiums?TheUniver‐sitydoesnotknowtheincomebandsofitsretirees.Itonlyknowstheirpensionincome.Theuniversityhasnowayofknow‐ingtheamountofextraincome
retireesobtainfromSocialSecurityorpersonalinvestments.Theuniver‐sityalsogenerallyknowswhethertheretireehasaspousebuthasnowayofknowingaboutthespouse’sincome.Onecanspeculatethatmostrecentlyretiredemeritiwouldfallinincomeband3.
BottomLine
Somepeopleareunderthemis‐apprehensionthatretireesonMedi‐carefacenegligiblehealthcarecosts.Whiletheuniversityprovidesexcel‐lentandrelativelylowcostsupple‐mentalinsurancetoMedicare,retir‐eeshavefacedsharpincreasesinpremiumsfortheBlueShieldPPOinthelasttwoyears(byabout200%).Inaddition,MedicarehasincreaseditspartsBandDpremiumsby20%in2016.
_______________________
MedicarepartAcoversinpatientcostsandistypically“free”becauseemployeespaidintoitallalongfromtheirpaychecks.MedicarepartBcoversoutpatientandlaboratorycostsandistypicallyautomaticallysubtractedfromindividuals’SocialSecuritychecks.MedicarepartDcoversdrugsorprescriptionbene‐its.TheratesforpartsBandDdif‐fer,dependingupontheretiree’sincome.
SomehaveadvocatedthatthegovernmentrelyinsteadontheCPI‐E,whichhasbeenconsistentlyhigh‐erintermsofestimatesofelderly’scoststhantheCPI‐W.Thatchange,however,wouldincreasethecostofSocialSecurity.Seeforinstancehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiehopkins/2015/09/02/congress‐considers‐new‐proposal‐to‐raise‐social‐security‐bene its/
Giventhedifferenceinmagni‐tudebetweentheSScheckandtheMedicarepremium,theseef‐fectsarerelativelysmallaslongastheCOLAispositive.Forin‐stance,ifoneassumedaSSbene‐itof$2000/month,evena1%COLAgeneratesanadditional$20/month.Incomparison,themonthlypartBMedicarechargeforlowerincomeretireesiscur‐rently$105.EvenifMedicarerateswentupby10%(i.e.$10/month),individualswouldnot“notice”theeffectsofthesediffer‐entpercentincreases,becausetheirSSpaycheckwouldstillbeincreasingandtherewouldbeno“holdharmless”actionaffectingnewretireesandthoseinhigherincomebrackets.WhentheSSCOLA=0,however,theimpactoftheincreasedMedicarepremiumisreadilydiscernible.
Therearesomebackoftheenvelopecalculations,whichsug‐gestthatemeritimaybeinahigh‐erincomebandthananticipated.Forinstance,in2015,facultyre‐
CHRONICLESNOVEMBER2015 PAGE5
tiringatage70couldearnamaximumSocialSecuritybene‐itof$3501permonth.In2015,theaverageladderrankfacultymemberretiredatage69after29yearsofserviceandatanaveragecoveredcompensationof$181,000.Suchprofessorswouldretirewithapensionof$131,225(datakindlyprovidedbytheViceProvostforAcadem‐icPersonnelandPrograms).Afteraddingthemaximumso‐cialsecurityof$42,000,thatimpliesthatanaverageprofes‐sorwouldhaveincomeof$173,225,notincludinganypersonalinvestments.Thesecalculationsimplythatthe“average”facultyretireemightwellbeinincomeband3or4.Additionalpersonalsavingswouldshiftfacultytohigherbands.Ontheotherhand,facul‐tywhosespouseshadlittlein‐comewouldshiftthebandtoalowerincomebracket.
Endnotes
part B charges set to rise in 2015
Witheverysuccessiveincomeband,thepremiumincreasesbyabout50%,ascomparedtothelowestincomeband.
CHRONICLESNOVEMBER2015 PAGE4
COLAincreasein2016.Thisisarareoccurrence(onlythethirdtimein40years)overthedecadesofSS,butithastellingconsequenc‐esforMedicare.
MedicarecalculatespartBchargesprospectivelybasedonhealthcareestimatedcostsinthecomingyear.Thesecosthavebeenrising,andhistorically,since1980,Medicarepremiumcostshavein‐creasedtwiceasrapidlyasincreas‐estotheSocialSecuritycost‐of‐living(COLA)adjustmentsbene‐its.
CongressrecognizedthatifMedicarepremiumsincreasedmorethantheCOLAsocialsecuritybene its,itcouldseriouslyhurttheincomeofseniorswhodependprimarilyontheirSocialSecuritychecks.Itthereforeenacteda“holdharmless”clausethatinessenceprotects70%ofexistingsocialse‐curityrecipients‐‐thosewithlowerincomes‐‐fromhavingtheirSocialSecurityincomesreducedbyhigh‐erMedicarepremiums.
Butthe“holdharmless”clauseshiftsthelower‐incomeretirees’costsontotheothersinMedicare,therebyincreasingtheircostsevenmore.Thesearesomeofthe
groupsthatarenotheldharmlessbytheclause:
NewSocialSecuritybene iciar‐ies,evenlowerincomeones.
IndividualswhodonothavetheirMedicarepaymentsauto‐maticallydeductedfromtheirSocialSecuritypayments.
Individualswithhigherin‐comes(comprising6%ofsen‐iorsonMedicare).
Whatwillhappenin2016?
In2016,MedicarepartBwaspredictedtoincreaseby$54permonth.ForthosewithhigherMod‐i iedAdjustedGrossIncome(MAGI),theincreasewouldhavebeenmuchsteeperbecausetheywouldbepayingnotonlyfortheir
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
ownincreasedcostsbutalsoforthoseofthe70%ofSocialSe‐curityrecipientswhowouldbeheldharm‐less.Thetablebelowliststhe iveincomebandsfor2015andtheaccompanyingpartBandDpremi‐ums.
Witheverysuccessiveincomeband,thepremiumincreasesbyabout50%,ascomparedtothelowestincomeband.
Duetothelastminutebudg‐etarycompromise,theexactdol‐laramountsfor2016partBpre‐miumsareunclearasoftoday(10/30/15)butareexpectedtobe~20%higher.PartDincome‐relatedassessmentsareproject‐edtobeonlyslightlyincreasedinthecomingyear(byabout$1ineachincomeband).
So,howmanyemeritiwillbeaffectedbythesesubstantialin‐creasedpremiums?TheUniver‐sitydoesnotknowtheincomebandsofitsretirees.Itonlyknowstheirpensionincome.Theuniversityhasnowayofknow‐ingtheamountofextraincome
retireesobtainfromSocialSecurityorpersonalinvestments.Theuniver‐sityalsogenerallyknowswhethertheretireehasaspousebuthasnowayofknowingaboutthespouse’sincome.Onecanspeculatethatmostrecentlyretiredemeritiwouldfallinincomeband3.
BottomLine
Somepeopleareunderthemis‐apprehensionthatretireesonMedi‐carefacenegligiblehealthcarecosts.Whiletheuniversityprovidesexcel‐lentandrelativelylowcostsupple‐mentalinsurancetoMedicare,retir‐eeshavefacedsharpincreasesinpremiumsfortheBlueShieldPPOinthelasttwoyears(byabout200%).Inaddition,MedicarehasincreaseditspartsBandDpremiumsby20%in2016.
_______________________
MedicarepartAcoversinpatientcostsandistypically“free”becauseemployeespaidintoitallalongfromtheirpaychecks.MedicarepartBcoversoutpatientandlaboratorycostsandistypicallyautomaticallysubtractedfromindividuals’SocialSecuritychecks.MedicarepartDcoversdrugsorprescriptionbene‐its.TheratesforpartsBandDdif‐fer,dependingupontheretiree’sincome.
SomehaveadvocatedthatthegovernmentrelyinsteadontheCPI‐E,whichhasbeenconsistentlyhigh‐erintermsofestimatesofelderly’scoststhantheCPI‐W.Thatchange,however,wouldincreasethecostofSocialSecurity.Seeforinstancehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiehopkins/2015/09/02/congress‐considers‐new‐proposal‐to‐raise‐social‐security‐bene its/
Giventhedifferenceinmagni‐tudebetweentheSScheckandtheMedicarepremium,theseef‐fectsarerelativelysmallaslongastheCOLAispositive.Forin‐stance,ifoneassumedaSSbene‐itof$2000/month,evena1%COLAgeneratesanadditional$20/month.Incomparison,themonthlypartBMedicarechargeforlowerincomeretireesiscur‐rently$105.EvenifMedicarerateswentupby10%(i.e.$10/month),individualswouldnot“notice”theeffectsofthesediffer‐entpercentincreases,becausetheirSSpaycheckwouldstillbeincreasingandtherewouldbeno“holdharmless”actionaffectingnewretireesandthoseinhigherincomebrackets.WhentheSSCOLA=0,however,theimpactoftheincreasedMedicarepremiumisreadilydiscernible.
Therearesomebackoftheenvelopecalculations,whichsug‐gestthatemeritimaybeinahigh‐erincomebandthananticipated.Forinstance,in2015,facultyre‐
CHRONICLESNOVEMBER2015 PAGE5
tiringatage70couldearnamaximumSocialSecuritybene‐itof$3501permonth.In2015,theaverageladderrankfacultymemberretiredatage69after29yearsofserviceandatanaveragecoveredcompensationof$181,000.Suchprofessorswouldretirewithapensionof$131,225(datakindlyprovidedbytheViceProvostforAcadem‐icPersonnelandPrograms).Afteraddingthemaximumso‐cialsecurityof$42,000,thatimpliesthatanaverageprofes‐sorwouldhaveincomeof$173,225,notincludinganypersonalinvestments.Thesecalculationsimplythatthe“average”facultyretireemightwellbeinincomeband3or4.Additionalpersonalsavingswouldshiftfacultytohigherbands.Ontheotherhand,facul‐tywhosespouseshadlittlein‐comewouldshiftthebandtoalowerincomebracket.
Endnotes
part B charges set to rise in 2015
Witheverysuccessiveincomeband,thepremiumincreasesbyabout50%,ascomparedtothelowestincomeband.
CHRONICLES NOVEMBER2015 PAGE3
ByJoelDimsdaleProfessorEmeritusofPsychiatryandFacultyRetirementLiaison
“Otime,thoumustuntanglethis,notI.Itistoohardaknotformet'untie.”―WilliamShakespeare, TwelfthNightMedicarepartBrateswillin‐creasesharplyfor2016‐‐byabout20%‐‐fornewenrolleesandenrol‐leeswhosemodi iedadjustedgrossincome(MAGI)exceeds$85,000/year.Actually,theincreasewasoriginallyforecasttobe52%,butsurprisingly,Congresspassedatrulylastminutecompromisethatspreadstheincreaseoverthenext
ABrie ingonMedicarepartBRates
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
coupleyears.IthoughtIwouldex‐plainhowthiscameaboutbecauseifweremaininazerocostoflivingadjustment(COLA)environmentforanotheryear,theproblemswillmagnify.
Tosimplifydatapresentation,thisanalysispresentssinglecover‐ageforaMedicareretireeonthe
university’sBlueShieldPPO,aninsuranceproductthatiswidelysubscribedbyretirees.
SocialSecurity(SS)calculatesitsCOLAretrospectivelybasedonanindexofconsumerexpensescalledtheCPI‐W,butseniorshavetheirindexbettermappedbytheCPI‐E,whichismoresensi‐tivetotheirnotablyhigherhealthcareexpenses.Thereisconsiderablediscussionabouthowtheconsumerpriceindexshouldbecalculated,buttheCPI‐Whasbeenvirtually latthispastyear;thus,therewillbenoSS
CHRONICLES NOVEMBER2015 PAGE6
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
only7.6percentcited“elmuro”(thecommontermfortoday’sborderwall)astheirtopconcern,com‐paredwith48percentwhofearedbeingkidnappedbyorganizedcrim‐inalgangsorassaultedbyborderbanditswhilemakingtheirwaytotheUnitedStates.
Whatexplainstheblindfaithofpoliticiansinmilitarizingtheborderasthekeytocontrollingimmigra‐tion?Iftheyactuallybelievethatinvestingmoreheavilyinthisformofenforcementiscost‐effective,whereisthesupportingevidence?Themainpointisthatmorethanadecadeofcarefully‐executed, ield‐work‐based,multi‐methodresearchhasyieldedwhatcanproperlybecalledarock‐solidacademicconsen‐sus,i.e.,thatthemassiveborderen‐forcementbuild‐upinwhichwehavebeenengagedsince1993is(1)ineffectiveinkeepingundocument‐edmigrantsoutofthecountry,(2)anextremelyweakdeterrenttopro‐spectivemigrants,and(3)hashad
hugeunintendedconsequences,mostnotablykeepingmillionsofundocumentedmigrantscagedin‐sidetheUnitedStateswithanincen‐tivetoputdownroots.Thislastcon‐sequencewillhaveamajor,long‐term iscalimpact,especiallyforhealthcareandeducation.
Theexpertconsensusandsup‐portingevidencewerereportedinamajorstudyoftheef icacyofU.S.immigrationcontrolpolicybyapan‐elofsixteenofthecountry'sleadingimmigrationresearchers,convenedbytheNationalResearchCoun‐cil.Contrarytoof icialclaimsthatthesharpdownturninnewmigra‐tionfromMexicosince2007isafunctionofstrongerborderenforce‐ment,theNRCpanelfoundthat“rising[border]enforcementdoesnotseemtohaveplayedasigni i‐cantroleinloweringthelikelihoodofundocumentedmigration.”Thepanel’sreport,publishedin2011bytheNationalResearchCouncil,wasignoredbythemediaandthena‐
tionalpoliticalclass.
Partoftheblameundoubtedlylieswithineffectivecommunica‐tionofresearch indingsbytheacademicswhoproducethem(and/ortheirpublishers).Butevenwithsustained,timelyeffortstogetresearchresultsintothepublicdomainviainterviewswithmediareporters,op‐edarticles,Congressionaltestimony,andoth‐ervehicles,politicaldebatesinthisandotherimportantareasareproceedingwithlittleornorefer‐encetosettledempiricalresearchindings.Thecountryisnotbene‐itingfromthisdisjuncture.
Recentlycollecteddataonmi-grants’border-crossingexperienc-esarepresentedinchapter1ofWayneA.Cornelius,etal.,eds.,TheNewFaceofMexicanMigration(LaJolla,CA:UCSDCenterforCom-parativeImmigrationStudies),availableinearlyDecember2015fromAmazon.com.
BySandyLakoff
FeeltheBernComeTrueOK,here’smydream.BernieSandersbecomestheDemocraticnomineeforpresidentwhenHilla‐ryClintonbowsout,afterrealiz‐ingshehasalreadylivedintheWhiteHouselongenoughandcanhaveamoresatisfyingcareerhostingSaturdayNightLive.Sand‐ersgoesontodefeattheRepubli‐cancandidateDonaldTrumpinalandslide.(Trumpthendeclareshis ifthbankruptcysoasnottohavetopaycampaigndebts,stif ‐inghisstaffersjustlikehisrun‐ningmateCarlyFiorinaoncedid.)AttheinauguralinJanuary,theBernidictionisofferedbytheLeaderoftheNewYorkSocietyforEthicalCulture.ThenSandersbe‐comesthe irstpresidenttobesworninonhisfamilycopyofTheIntelligentWoman’sGuidetoSo-cialismandCapitalismbyGeorge“Bernie”Shaw.Inhisinauguraladdress,thePresident‐ElectremindspeoplethatGeorgeWashingtonwasaMasonandsaysthattheMasonsmayhaveinspiredKarlMarx’sslo‐gan,“Fromeachaccordingtohisabilities,toeachaccordingtohisneeds,”whichiswhytheywereblamedfortheFrenchandAmeri‐canrevolutions.Healsoquotesfrommylatestessay:“Extremeinequalityofwealthandincome...createssocialdivisionsandten‐sionsthataredangerousnotonlyforsocietiesintransitiontode‐mocracybutalsoforthoseinwhichithasa irmfoot‐ing.”(Lakoff,“InequalityasaDan‐gertoDemocracy,”PoliticalSci-enceQuarterly,fall2015.It’smydream,remember!)Hepromises
tointroducetwonewconstitution‐alamendments,onegivingCon‐gressthepowertoregulatecam‐paignspending,theothertorevisetheSecondAmendmenttoallowforguncontrol(explainingthathenowrepresentsthewholecountryandnotjustaruralstate).AndhewarnsthathewillsendMarinestoannextheCaymanIslandsiftheydon’tstopservingasanoffshorehavenforAmericantax‐dodgers.ThereceptionontheWhiteHouselawnfeaturespancakestoppedwithVermontMapleSyrupandBenandJerry’sicecream,alsoshippedinfromVermont.Theen‐tertainmentisaHootenannyinwhichBobDylanandJoanBaezstrumguitars(un‐electri iedtohelpcontrolglobalwarming)andleadthesingingofsucholdfavor‐itesasTheBalladofJoeHill(theWobblytroubadour):IdreamtIsawJoeHilllastnight,Aliveasyouorme.“SaysI,butJoe,you’retenyearsdead.”“Ineverdied,”sayshe,“FromSanDiegouptoMaine,ineverymineandmill,Whereworkingmendefendtheirrights.That’swhereyou’ll indJoeHill.”OnDay1ofhispresidency,SandersissuesanExecutiveOrdersendingtheDodgersbacktoBrooklyn,thePadrestoLA,andtheYankeestoSanDiego.ThePresidentsaysheisdoingsotosymbolizehisdeterminationtoreduceinequalityinAmerica.Then,inarepriseofFDR’sOneHundredDays,hesendsablizzardoflegislationtoCongress(towhichallmembersoftheFreedomCaucushavelostreelection).Onebillwouldraisetheminimumwageto$15.AnotherwouldhavethePostOf icecashchecksandprovidesavingsaccounts(asthey
doinFrance,GermanyandJapan),sothatlowwageearnerswouldnotbegougedbypay‐daylendersanddeniedsavingsaccountsbybanks.Athirdwouldcreateapub‐lic‐privateinfrastructureBernie‐bankto ixallthebridges,roads,tunnels,etc.,andstimulatebusi‐nessandemployment.Afourthwouldraisetaxesontheverywealthy‐‐highenoughtoprovidehealthcareforall,freetuitionatpubliccolleges,rooftopsolarpan‐els,andsubsidizedeggcreamsmadeonlywithFox’sU‐betchoco‐latesyrup(madeinBrooklyn).It’safreecountry,right?WecanallhaveanydreamourREMsleepcomesupwith.IhopeIdon’thavetosharemynightmareofwhathappensifhisopponentwins.I’lljustquotemybesidelexi‐con:
Trumpery,n.Somethingde‐ceptivelyshowy,hence,vainorvaluelessthings;rubbish.Webster’sCollegiateDictionary
***TheEditor’sDementia!:ApologiestoCecilLytleandotherreadersperplexedbythegarbledmathinthe“DementiaQuiz”inthelastissues.Thisisthecorrectversion:
TAKE1000ANDADD40TOIT.NOWADDANOTHER1000NOWADD30.
ADDANOTHER1000.NOWADD20.NOWADDANOTHER1000.NOWADD10.WHATISTHETO‐TAL?
DIDYOUGET5000?THECORRECTANSWERISACTUALLY4100.
Anecdotage
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Page2 NOVEMBER2015Chronicles
sandsofclimatescientists.Theyhavehelpfromfree‐marketideolo‐gists(liketheeditorsofTheWallStreetJournal)whoseethescienceasaninsidiousefforttopromotestateregulationandbringdowncapitalismbyresearchershungryforgovernmentgrants.OklahomaSen.JamesInhofe,whohascalledthisscience“thegreatesthoax,”chairstherelevantcommitteeintheSenate,andthecoalindustryhasmountedasustainedlegalchallengetotheEPA’srelativelymodestregulations.
Politiciansdancearoundthescienti icconsensusbyassertingthat,conveniently,theylackthecredentialstoevaluatetheevi‐dence.(“Iamnotascientist”hasbeenthepreferredresponseofRepublicanpoliticians.).Or,theycherry‐pickevidence.Whenpoliti‐ciansdiscoverasinglescholarwhoseresearchseemstosupporttheirviews,theyseizeuponthisasjusti icationfortheirideologically‐derivedposition.Themediaoftenfallintothisgame,sincereportingonadeviant indingisthelatestversionoftheman‐bites‐dogstory.
Immigrationpolicyposesanexceptionallyclearchoicebetweenaccumulatedscienti icevidenceandideologicallydrivenagendas.Thereareseveralfactorsatplayinshapingpublicopinionandpublicpolicyinthisarea,someofthemgoingbackmanyyears.
Nativismisasoldanideologyastherepublic.NolessapublicigurethanBenjaminFranklinwasthe irsttowavethebloodyshirtof“unassimilable”immigrants.Histargetwasnewly‐arrivedGermans,whosesmall,German‐languagepublicationswerecompetingwithFranklin’snewspaperbusinessinPennsylvania.(WeallknowhowpoorlytheGermansassimilated.ThinkofJohnBoehner,TimothyGeithner,ChuckHagel,WorldBankPresidentRobertZoellick,
RepublicanNationalCommitteeChairmanReincePriebus,andDon‐aldTrump–grandsonofanimmi‐grantbornFriedrichDrumpf.
Racismandanti‐Semitismdrovepassageoftherestrictiveimmigra‐tionlawsof1921,1924,and1929.Anti‐Mexicanprejudice,which irstbecamepoliticallyin luentialinthe1920s,remainsapotentforceto‐day,asTrumphasdemonstrated.EventhedistinguishedHarvardpo‐liticalscientistSamuelHuntington,inthelastyearsofhiscareer,stokedpublicfearsthatlarge‐scaleMexicanimmigrationwillinevitablyunder‐minethecountry’scohesionandpromote“bifurcation”inlanguageandotherrespects.
Butwhatarethefacts?Amas‐sivenewsurveyoftherelevantevi‐dencebyapanelofexperts,ledbyHarvardsociologistMaryC.Waters,publishedinSeptember2015,bytheNationalAcademiesofSciences,En‐gineering,andMedicine,concludesthatthenewestgenerationofimmi‐grants,includingMexicans,isassim‐ilatingasfastandascomprehensive‐lyaspreviousgenerationsofimmi‐grants.Theirintegrationincreasesovertime“acrossallmeasurableoutcomes,”theauthors ind.There‐portspeci icallyrejectsthewide‐spreadnotionsthattoday’simmi‐grantslackthedesiretolearnEng‐lish,thattheycommitcrimesmorefrequentlythannon‐immigrantAmericans,andthattheyusuallyarriveinpoorhealthandburdenpublichealthcaresystems.
BeyondpanderingtonegativestereotypesofMexicanimmigrantsandignoranceoftheirimportancetotheeconomy,politicians’resistancetoscienti icevidenceisbeingfedbyaperceiveddemographicthreat–speci ically,thefearamongRepubli‐cansthatthein luxofMexicansandotherLatinoimmigrantswillpro‐videgrowingsupportforDemocrats.RuyTeixera,apoliticalscientist,hasnotedthattheHispanicvotein‐
creasesbyonepercentagepointeveryyear,anditisoverwhelminglyDemo‐cratic.Republicans’fearsareoffsetsomewhatbytheirhopesthattheGOPcanappealtoLatinosintermsofcul‐turalvalues,andthatasmoreLatinosenterthemiddleclasstheywillfollowIrishandotherCatholicsintotheRe‐publicancolumn.ButtheexampleofCalifornia,areliablybluestatewhosebluenessclearlyre lectsthegrowthoftheMexico‐originelectorate,isnotlostonRepublicanstryingtoprotecttheircontrolofotherstates.
Whenitcomestopolicyoptionsforcontrollingthe lowofMexicanandotherunauthorizedmigrants,thegapbetweenscienti icevidenceandtheclaimsofpublicof icialsisevenmoreyawning.Formorethanadec‐ade, ieldinterviewswithtensofthou‐sandsofMexicanmigrantsandpoten‐tialmigrants,conductedsince2005byUCSD’sMexicanMigrationFieldRe‐searchProgramandtheresearchteamofsociologistDouglasMasseyatPrinceton,havedemonstratedtheineffectivenessoftheobstaclecoursethatwehavecreatedalongthesouth‐westernborder.Morethannineoutoftenwhocometotheborderstillsuc‐ceedeventuallyingainingentry,ifnotonthe irsttrythenonthesecondorthird,regardlessoftheirpointoforigininMexico.Fencescanalwaysbeclimbedover(oftenusingladderssup‐pliedbypeople‐smugglers),dugun‐der,orgonearound,includingMr.Trump’s“impenetrable”wall.
Nevertheless,advocatesofspend‐ingbillionsmoreonphysicalfencingclaimthatitcanbeaneffectivedeter‐renttounauthorizedimmigration.Again,theevidencefrominterviewswithmigrantsandpotentialmigrantsbeliestheclaim.Today’sprospectivemigrantsarefarmoreconcernedaboutexposingthemselvestoviolenceperpetratedbydruglordsandkidnap‐pinggangsinMexico’sborderlandsthanaboutborderfences.InUCSD’s2015surveyofpotentialmigrants,
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
cont.onpage3
Les visages de Paris MannyRotenberg,PhotographerAselectionofhisimagescurrentlyondisplayatthe
Ida&CecilGreenFacultyClubExhibitiondates:October‐December2015
November2015VolumeXV,No.2
T h e D e m i s e o f E v i d e n c e - B a s e d P o l i c y M a k i n g : T h e C a s e o f I m m i g r a t i o n
ByWayneA.CorneliusandSanfordLakoff
DicksonProfessorsofPoliticalScienceEmeritus
Evidence‐basedpublicpolicy‐makingseemstohavegoneoutthewindowinrecentyears.Inonedo‐mainafteranother–globalclimatechange,economicpolicy(especiallytheeffectsofde icitspendingandraisingtheminimumwage),thecost/bene itratioofchildhoodim‐munizations,andothers‐‐legisla‐tors,otherelectedof icials,andevensomefederaljudgeshavechosentoignorethesettledscienti icconsen‐susandproceedasifoperatinginaparalleluniverse.Immigrationpolicyisanespeciallyglaringcaseinpoint.
Whatexplainsthisstateofaf‐fairs?
“Humannature”–i.e.,self‐interest,habit,ideological ixation,andprejudice–isverymuchinplay.Whenscienti ic indingscontradictconventionalwisdominsomewaythatseemsthreatening,theyarelikelytoberesisteduntil(asthehis‐torianofscienceThomasKuhnshowed)anewgenerationadoptsaparadigmitseldersrejected.Eventu‐ally,theweightofevidenceover‐comestheinitialresistance.TheindingsofCopernicus,Galileo,and
Darwinareclassicexamples.Inre‐centyears,inconvenientscienti ictruthsseemtofaceanequallyuphillbattletoshapepublicpolicy.
Take,forexample,themedicalindingthatsmokingposesserioushealthrisks.TheSurgeonGeneral’sreportappearedinthe1950sbutwasresistedbecauseitwassaidtorelyonepidemiologicalevidenceratherthanetiology.ThetobaccocompaniessupportedtheresistancebyhiringtheirownresearchersandbuyingCongressmen.New indingsandariseinhealthawarenesseven‐tuallyworedowntheopposition,butCongressdoledout$1.5billioninsubsidiestotobaccogrowersfrom1995‐2012andtwentyper‐centofAmericansarestilltooad‐dictedtoquit.
Thecontroversyovergenetically
modi iedfoodsprovidesanotherexample.Thepreponderanceofscienti icevidenceshowsthatthesehavegreatbene itsandminimal,manageablerisks,especiallyinanerawhenclimatechangethreatensthestabilityoftheworld’sfoodsupplyandhungerstalksthedevel‐opingworld,provokingmassiveemigration.ButinEurope,GMfoodsarestillbanned,andherethereisademandforlabelingsothatconsumerscanchoosetoig‐norescienti icevidence.
Globalwarmingremainscon‐troversialintheUnitedStates,largelybecause,asinthecaseoftobacco,economicinterestsareplayingupchallengestothescienceinthefaceofwarningsfromthou‐
UCSD Emer i t i Assoc i a t i on
TheDemiseofEvidence‐BasedPolicyMaking…….……..…...1
ABrie ingonMedicarepartBRates…………………………….3
Anecdotage…………………...........6
MannyRotenberg,PhotographerLesvisagesdeParis………7
Markyourcalendar……...……..8
Markyourcalendarfor2016events!
AndrewScull,DistinguishedProfessorofSociologyTopic:"MadnessandMeaning:Imagesanddiscussionabouttherelationshipbetweenmadness,culture,andmeaning."
Wednesday,January13,2016,3:30‐5:00PMIda&CecilGreenFacultyClub
RichardC.Atkinson,UCPresidentEmeritusandUCSDChancellorEmeritus
Topic: "ThehistoryofUCSDandtheUCSystemfromhisuniqueperspective."Toseewhathehastalkedandwrittenaboutinrecentyears,visithiswebsite:www.rca.ucsd.edu.
Wednesday,February10,2016,3:30‐5PMIda&CecilGreenFacultyClub
…Economicinterestsareplayingupchallengestosci-enceinthefaceofwarningsfromthousandsofclimatescientists.Theyhavehelpfromfree-marketideologists(liketheeditorsofTheWallStreetJournal)whoseethescienceasaninsidiousefforttopromotestateregulationandbringdowncapitalismbyresearchershungryforgovernmentgrants.
cont.onpage2
EmeritiandRetirementAssociationsHolidayParty
Saturday,December51-4PM
Ida&CecilGreenFacultyClub
Fabulous Holiday Buffet & No-Host Bar $10 per member
(non-members: $50)
Please mail your check to: UCSD Emeriti Association 9500 Gilman Dr., # 0020 La Jolla, CA 92093-0020
SanfordLakoff Editor
SuzanCiof i ManagingEditor
MelGreen AssistantEditor
HenryPowell PresidentMarkAppelbaum VicePresident
PhyllisMirsky Secretary/TreasurerJoelDimsdale PastPresident,Awards
MembersatLarge:MargueriteJackson,RobertKnox,CarolPlantamura,,RogerSpragg,JoeWatson,andGillWilliamson.ExOf icio:DickAttiyeh,RepresentativetoCUCEA,JackFisher,Historian,BooneHellmann,Representative,UCSDRetirementAssociation,SandyLakoff,Editor,Chronicles,SuzanCiof i,Direc‐tor,RetirementResourceCenter,andMaxineBloor,LiaisontoOceanids.
Forwardqueries,changesinmailing/emailaddressto:SuzanCiof i,Director,UCSDRetirementResourceCenter,UCSD,9500GilmanDrive,#0020,LaJolla,CA92093-0020.
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