Lakeforest Market Analysis

Lakeforest Market AnalysisByDavid CottinghamReal Estate Markets

Location

LocationGaithersburg, MD & Montgomery VillageOff of I-270Russell Ave & Montgomery Village AveApproximately 25 miles west of Washington, D.C.

Why is it a great location?High Median Income $90,000Great SchoolsShopping, Restaurants and parks/amenitiesAn eagar Economic Development County Department

Office Trade Market

Office Trade MarketBoundariesI-270 to the southThe powerlines to the northwestAirpark Rd to the southeastI-370 to the south

Office Trade MarketBenefits12 Metro Bus stops within reasonable walking distanceI-270 Montgomery Village AveConvenient places to eat such as Panera Bread, Sardis, Boston Market and McDonalds.Shopping such as Costco, Sams Club, Gaithersburg Square, plus numerous other shopping centers.

Office Analysis-.47% Job growth as of 2016Economic Development Office bring in new career fieldsCyber-SecurityGrowth rate of 91% from 2010 to 2014Expected to grow 84% from 2014-2016Median Salary of $83,250

Office AnalysisBiotechnologyExpected to grow 5% per year from 2014 to 2016Average Salary of $79,200

Office AnalysisEconomic Development office is predicting future job growth rate of 35% over the next 10 yearsMedian Salary of $89,284 for singles and $106,093 for a family of four.Top 5 riches Counties in America only behind Loudoun and Fairfax Counties.

Office Analysis

Currently 20 Proposed buildings

Office Analysis19,285,418 Additional sqft5,953,220 Unleased sqft13,332,198 sqft or 69% preleasedMedian Market Rent $32.36

Office AnalysisLow Absorption rate of 0.4% or 238,128 sqft absorbed per year.Vacancy Rate is 14%Current existing space 20,925,723Vacant space 2,081,245Median rates for older buildings is $23.12

Office AnalysisWhat Do people want?

Office Analysis

Walkability

15

Office Analysis

Residential Trade Market

Residential Trade MarketEach trade area is different, because each have different needs.What is important?

Residential Trade Market

Crime Rates Crime index ranges from 42 to 53Ranking this area safe

Residential Trade MarketGaithersburg population of 66,816Annual crimes 1,005Which 91 of are listed as violent914 are listed as property crime

Residential Trade MarketMontgomery Village population of 33,801Total crimes 63467 are listed as Violent crimes567 are listed as Property crimes

Residential Trade MarketSchool SystemIs considered goodMost schools are ranked 3-stars or above

Residential Trade MarketCommutingApproximately 25 miles west of Washington, D.C.Commute times range from 25 minutes on off-peak times45 minutes to 1 hour 30 minutes during peak rush hour

Residential Trade MarketShoppingCostco, Sams Club, Food Lion, H-Mart and multiple retail shopping centers

Residential AnalysisMontgomery County Overall Growth Rate7% over the past 5 yearsWhereas, Maryland Growth Rate over the same period is 4%

Residential AnalysisGrowth Rate from 2015 to 2025 is forecasted at6%

Residential AnalysisPopulation 65 to 69 70 to 7475 to 79Modest gains25 to 29 9%30 to 34 10%

Residential AnalysisLakeforest Area Population 2000 2010 2.62%2010 2015 6.61%Expected to grow 5.79% over the next 5 years

Residential AnalysisLakeforest Area Population Age growth rate over the past 5 years25 to 34 16.64%35 to 44 16.13%Median age 35.83Average age Men 34.67Average age Women 37.03Never Married 34.18%Married Couples 44.43%

Residential AnalysisMedian home price $420,900Expected to grow 0.9% over the yearHouseholds are forecasted to grow 5.63% over the next 5 yearsSlightly less than the previous years at 6.69%

Residential AnalysisVacancy rates 4.3% StableMedian asking rent $1,440 per month

Residential Analysis3.7% unemployment rate for Montgomery County5.3% for Maryland

Residential Analysis

Residential AnalysisWhat do people want?

Residential Analysis

Retail Trade Market

Retail Trade MarketWhats important?Medium IncomePopulationEase of access

Retail Trade MarketGood traffic countsMontgomery Village Ave 45,402Russell Ave 9,172

Retail Analysis-0.47% job growthMontgomery County is forecasting 35% over the next 10 yearsAveraging 3.5%

Retail AnalysisEst Population(trade area)UnemployedTotal Household Est. (trade area)Male43,195Female46,210Total89,4052,83445,322

Retail AnalysisGrocery Store & Big BoxConvenient StoresRestaurantsCereals & Cereal Products$6,768,103$553,582$1,713,348Bakery Products$9,066,279$848,135$4,533,139Fish & Seafood$3,383,059$0$1,691529Meats$26,213,698$0$13,106,849Juices$3,548,557$591,426$1,774,278Fruits & Vegetables$15,640,699$305469$6,903,939Dairy Products$11,163,164$1,055,193$5,581,582Sugar & Other Sweets$6,491,134$1,081,855$1,293,670Fats & Oils$1,056,615$80,092$528,307Non-Alcoholic Beverages$11,812,103$1,968,683$5,906,051Prepared Foods$21,432,757$3,155,925$4,565,130Est Total Sales$116,576,168$9,640,360$47,597,822

Retail AnalysisGrocery Store Convenient StoresRestaurantsRetailEst Total Sq Ft548,34868,890131,2527,542,751Est Total Sales$116,576,168$9,640,360$47,597,822$1,791,688,720Sales per Sq Ft$212.59$139.93$362.64$237.54

Retail AnalysisGrocery stores target $400.00 psf$212.59 psf or 46.8% belowRetail stores target $350.00psf$237.54 psf or 32.13% Below

Impact of Mixing Use On-SiteFour CombinationsOffice and RetailOffice and ResidentialResidential and RetailOffice, Retail and Residential

Impact of Mixing Use On-Site

Impact of Mixing Use On-Site

Impact of Mixing Use On-Site

Impact of Mixing Use On-Site

Our Recommendation

Residential and Retail