market and liquidity risk examination...
TRANSCRIPT
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Market and Liquidity Risk Examination Techniques
Federal Reserve System
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Review: Linking Risk Hypothesis to Exams
High Risk Strong RM Process
Low Risk Strong RM Process
Low Risk Weak RM Process
High Exposure
Low Exposure
High Risk Weak RM Process
Weak RMProcess
Strong RMProcess
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Areas for Review
Effectiveness of board and senior management oversight
Suitability of policies, procedures and limits Appropriateness of risk measurement and
monitoring Effectiveness of internal controls and audit
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Board and Senior Management Oversight
Responsibilities of the Board– Determine Risk Profile and Tolerance– Establish a System of Controls– Understand Activities
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Reviewing Board and Senior Management Oversight
Review reports Read minutes (board and ALCO) Talk with senior management and
selected board members
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Board Oversight
Determine Risk Profile and Tolerance– Determine permissible activities– Set limits on those activities
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Board Oversight
Establish a System of Sound Controls– Require audit issues to be elevated to the
Board– Question activities of Senior Management– Engage in private discussions with
external auditors/examiners
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Board Oversight
Understand the Business– Review and approve financial data– Assess quality of information received
Facts or assumptions?– Require overviews from business lines– Seek an independent perspective
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Senior Management Oversight
Execute Board’s Strategic Plan– Ensure adequate staffing and operational
support– Collect sufficient data to monitor activities– Enforce adherence to board’s chosen risk
profile and tolerance
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Policies, Procedures and Limits
Approved by Board Describe company strategy Define permissible products
– Security types, derivatives, funding Set explicit limits.
– Gap, EaR, EVE, VaR Define separation of responsibilities.
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Assessing Policies and Procedures
Coverage of policies Relevance of policies Written procedures Updated and approved annually
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Assessing Limits
Limits are absolutely necessary for market/liquidity risks.
Limits should exist for each measure relevant to the institution’s exposure– Gap - EaR– EVE - VaR
Limits should truly reflect institutional risk tolerance
There should be a process for tracking, elevating and resolving exceptions
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Assessing Modeling
Approach should match the complexity of the institution’s activities– Basic banking activities Gap Schedule– Short-term exposure EaR Simulations– Long-term exposure EVE Simulations– Trading book VaR
Important to understand how the institution makes money
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Gap Schedule – Exam issues
What time buckets are used?– Sufficient to describe exposures
Are all rate sensitive assets/liabilities included?– Need catch-all (over 5-years) to tie to balance
sheet. Are results consistent with what actually
happens?– Exposed to rising rates and rates increased in the
past 6-months--earnings should have weakened.
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EaR Simulation – Exam Issues
Are core deposits viewed as interest sensitive?– No incentive to move idle money when rates are low.– During rising rates, money might move.
Are imbedded options included?– Some loans have caps and floors (limit on rates
charged).– Some bonds are callable (disappear when rates fall).
Does the simulation include sufficiently large rate shocks?– 100bp, 200bp, 300bp or larger.
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EVE Simulation – Exam Issues
Assumed maturities of indeterminate maturity liabilities affect results
Appropriate metric for limit– Should be some variant of capital
EVE by itself doesn't provide much value– Use scenario analysis and stress tests to
reveal changes in economic value
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VaR Analysis – Exam Issues
Most implementations assume normal distribution– 4 sigma events occur on average about
once a year– In a crisis all correlations go to 1
VaR should be used in conjunction with other tools.– Position limits– Tests for ability to withstand extreme
events like the 1998 Asian crisis.
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All Complex Models –Exam Issues
They are opaque (“black box”). Board & senior management may not
fully understand them. Internal audit often not qualified to
review their use. Management may be unwilling to pay
for external review
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Internal Controls and Audit
What is an audit? What are internal controls? Audit and internal controls are not the
same thing
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Internal Controls and Audit
Internal controls are a system of procedures aimed at limiting risk.– Business lines implement controls.– Controls help limit risk or establish
compensating factors. – Audit validates existing controls.– Audit may recommend new controls.
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Internal Controls and Audit
Controls over market and liquidity risk– Restrictions on activity– Strong policies and procedures– Clear lines of authority and responsibility– Segregation of duties
Separation of risk taking and risk measurement
– Two-weeks mandatory leave and job rotation
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Internal Controls and Audit -Modeling
Reporting
Processing
Information Inputs
Controls & Audit Risk
Management Responses
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Internal Controls and Audit -Modeling
Information inputs Processing Reporting Audit
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Modeling – Information Inputs
Information inputs– Accuracy of input – minimize potential for
human error.– Clear owners of data – users or data
processing?– Sufficiency of data – capture all fields.– “Garbage in, garbage out”
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Modeling - Processing
Is the model accurate? Is the model sufficient
– Are all material risks captured?– Are rate shifts sufficient?– Are non-parallel rate moves considered?
Are scenarios and assumptions reasonable?– Documented– Controls over changes– Tested through time
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Modeling - Reporting
Clarity for each audience– Board packages
Broad outline of positions and sensitivities– Management reports
Used in decision-makingEffect of changes in assumptions and
sensitivities– Administrative reports
Parameters, assumptions, equationsUsed to run model; track data flow
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Modeling - Auditing
Rigorous review by skilled, independentpersonnel – internal or external.
Assess design and conceptual soundness; perform pre-implementation statistical tests.
Review or generate back-test.– Comparing expectations with actual events.
Benchmark results – Compare select outcomes against a similar
model.
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Questions?
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References
Rating the Adequacy of Risk Management Processes and Internal Controls at State Member Banks and Bank Holding Companies http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/SRLETTERS/1995/sr9551.htm
Joint Policy Statement on Interest Rate Risk http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/SRLETTERS/1996/sr
9613.htm OCC Bulletin 2000-16: Risk Modeling - Model Validation
http://www.occ.treas.gov/OCC_current.htm Principles for the Management and Supervision of Interest Rate
Risk http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs108.htm