market drivers & outlook for duplex stainless steels to 2020 · the consumption of duplex...

© Copyright SMR GmbH 2010http://www.smr.at

Market Drivers & Outlook for Duplex Stainless Steels to 2020

in various Nickel Price Scenarios

presented byOliver Spaltmann

Senior Market AnalystSteel & Metals Market Research

International Nickel Study Group6th October 2010Lisbon, Portugal

© Copyright SMR GmbH 2010http://www.smr.at- 2 -

Type of Research Products Steel Grades

Single Client90 %

MultiClient10 %

Long Products

50 %

FlatProducts

50 %

StainlessSteel70 %

Tool Steels,Eng. Steels,

Nickelalloys & Carbon Steels

30 %MA

RK

ETR

ESEA

RC

HLO

CAT

ION

PRO

DU

CTS

OU

R T

EAM

Enduse Focused Single-Client Research

www.smr.at

Multi-Client Projects & Stainless Steel Seminars

www.steel-intelligence.com

Conferences in association with

Shanghai, CHINA June ‘11

Munich, GERMANYSept. ‘11

O. Spaltmann B. Blitz

R.-P. Hammerle E. Pfeifer

P. MollM. Moll W. Lipp

T. Feichtner

Jo ChuChina Representative

S. Posch

B. HunterScrap Consultant

W. BullaConsultant


Accuracy of SMR forecasts: We overstimated the duplex market growth in 1997 for 2005 by only 12%

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50

100

150

200

250

300

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

[‘000

met

ric to

nnes

]

SMR Forecast 1996 - 2005

Real Development 1996 to 2009


High Performance Product Family Tree ‘Made in Duplex‘

Duplex FP195 kt

Total Duplex STS 08310 kt

Duplex LP115 kt

Duplex Plate100 kt

Duplex Hot Rolled57 kt

Duplex Cold Rolled38 kt

Duplex Wire Rod10 kt

Duplex Wire6 kt

Duplex Bars & Seamless Tube

92 kt

Duplex Rebars7 kt

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Supply and Demand by Region 2008Europe & Asia consume almost 80% of the total duplex production.

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Asia14%

Europe80%

America4%

Others2%

Asia24%

Europe53%

America14%

Others9%

Duplex STS Production by Region 2008

Duplex STS Consumption by Region 2008


Duplex Stainless Steel Demand by Region and Product FormBeside quarto plate, other product forms have become more and more important.

Duplex Stainless Steel Consumption by Product Form and Region (2008)

Total Market[ktonnes]

164

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34%

34%

25%

33%

26%

37%

30%

34%

23%

12%

13%

8%

16%

18%

32%

26%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Europe

Asia

Americas

Others

Hot Rolled Plate Other Flat Products Seamless Tube Other Long Products

74

42

28


Who are the mills?Outokumpu & ArcelorMittal have together a market share of almost 50%. Asia is gaining share.

9945

2015

12111010109

7765443

34

Outokumpu Group

ArcelorMittal Group

Sandvik

Aceralava

Shanxi Taigang

Acerinox Group

NSSC Group

BoschGotthardsHütte

Valbruna Group

Schmolz & Bickenbach

Foroni

ALT

Cogne

Böhler Edelstahl

Italfond

Nippon Yakin

Sumitomo

Others

Outokumpu Group32%

ArcelorMittal Group15%

Sandvik7%

Aceralava5%

Shanxi Taigang4%

Acerinox Group3%

NSSC Group3%

BGH2%

Others*28%

Other19%

Producers of Duplex Stainless Steels FP + LP

Production in 2008 [‘000 metric tonnes]

Global Leaders, Market Shares in 2008Total Market: 310 ktonnes

* Valbruna Group, Schmolz & Bickenbach, Foroni , ALT, Cogne, Böhler Edelstahl, Italfond, Nippon Yakin, Sumitomo, TKN, Scana, Jindal Stainless,

POSCO Group, Baosteel Group, Aubert & Duval, Walsin, Yieh Hsing, AK Steel, OLARRA, Acroni, Ambica Steel, Carpenter, ELG Carrs, Sanyo Special

Steel, Villares Metals, Daido, G.O Carlson (Electralloy), Viraj, Chandan Steel, Aichi, GMTC, Mukand, Dongbei Special Steel, Universal Stainless

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Duplex Stainless Steels were particularly hard hit in 2009Total Duplex market decreased by 45% in 2009!

OTHER ASIA

AMERICAS

CHINA

TOTAL WORLD

EUROPE

OTHERS

FP Change `08-`09

LP Change `08-`09

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Where are Duplex Steels used Today?Top 3 FP end-use segments are: Offshore Oil & Gas, Desalination / Water Treatment as well as CPI.

26%

18%

6%

19%9%

3%

3%

16% Offshore Oil and Gas

Chemical Process Industry

Chemical Tankers / Shipbuilding

Desalination / Water Treatment

Pulp & Paper

Pollution Control

Architectural, Building & Construction

Others (Water heaters, food processing, etc.)

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48%

5%6%11%6%

2%

6%

9%

1%0,4%

6%Seamless TubesPumpsValvesFittings & FlangesSealsPropeller ShaftsRebars and meshWelding WireWire Lines (Wire rope, etc)FastenersOther Applications (Structural Parts, etc.)

Where are Duplex Steels used Today?Top 3 LP end-use segments are: Seamless Tubes, Fittings % Flanges as well as Welding Wire.

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-10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

11,0

12,0

13,0

LME

Stoc

ks[´0

00 to

nnes

]

[in U

S$ /

lb]

Nickel Volatility will remain highGlobal Nickel - LME Nickel Price (3-month) & LME Nickel Stock Levels (Status: Sept. 28th, 2010)

Nickel Price(3-month)

Ni Price

Stocks

Upper NPI Limit: 11$/lbNPI kicks in massively (potential 500.000 tpy)

Lower NPI Limit: 6$/lbNPI Disappears

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Are Duplex Steels really providing more Price Stability?Yes, but only for Lean Duplex (not for standard duplex as shown below)

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...and lower the alloy surcharge for duplex steels (higher trigger prices for Ni, Cr, Mo)?

‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000 [EUR / metric tonn

e]

304

316

2205


Duplex Stainless Steel Potential New ApplicationsThe acceptance of LDX will very much depend on the pricing strategy and availability.

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Duplex Stainless Steel Potential New ApplicationsThe consumption of duplex stainless steel in the ABC industry is becoming important.

World’s largest stainless steel roofOne of ATI’s proprietary alloys is being used for the largest stainless roof in the world. The roof is for the New Doha International Airport in Qatar. ATI Allegheny Ludlum, an ATI company, supplied 3.5 million pounds (~1,600 tonnes) of its proprietary AL 2003™ lean duplex stainless sheet to Contrarian Metal Resources, Allison Park, PA, for this project. AL 2003 lean duplex alloy is an economic alternative stainless that offers better corrosion resistance and strength compared to the more common and higher nickel-bearing Type 316L. Source: ATI

Welded pipe & tube for ABCThe supporting structure for canopies built over the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Transit Authority’s underground subway stations not only required corrosion resistance but also strength. S32003 was chosen for some of the larger structures instead of Type 316L because of its higher strength and its better resistance to chloride pitting from corrosive media such as road salt, sea mist, urban pollution and cleaning agents.

Duplex airport roof

Duplex subway roof

Duplex timber constructions

A “harmonious connection”The market launch of duplex stainless steel grades not only affects the steel industry but also the building and construction industry. Duplex and especially lean duplex 1.4362 offers interesting alternatives with roof timber constructions (snow load!), timber reconstruction measures of protected monuments, bridge constructions from wood and many other applications. The corrosion behavior of the material 1.4362 in contact with timber construction materials is comparable with that of the material 1.4571. Higher strength, weight saving potential, improved ductility as well as cost saving potential are key issues.


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Use of stainless steel rebar for concrete reinforcement is increasing worldwide. When life cycle costs of the structures are taken into account, duplex stainless steel provesto be a viable solution due to its enhanced strength properties.

Austenitic and duplex stainless steels are used as rebar because they present an excellentcombination of corrosion resistance in concrete, high strength and good ductility.

Duplex Stainless Steel Plate & Rebar

Duplex rebar

Duplex rebar

Duplex rebar

Duplex plate & rebar

Duplex bridge

We show rebar as a growing market since it is often used in combination with stainless steel plate.

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McChesney Architects were commissioned to design two rotating wind shelters for Blackpool’s (United Kingdom) newly regenerated South Shore Promenade.

They will form part of a series of art works of the Great Promenade Show. The shelters are designed to rotate according to the prevailing wind direction to shield the occupants from the elements. Extensive testing and development work was carried out to establish the performance of the shelters, looking specifically at the accuracy according to wind direction and also the speed of rotation.

This culminated in the manufacture of a full sized working prototype. The shelter is 8 meters tall and manufactured from resilient ‘Duplex’ stainless steel. It sits on a 4 meter diameter turntable, which incorporates a damper to control the speed of rotation. This project was recently given a Civic Trust Award.



Stainless Steel Wind Shelters

The focus of the memorial is 184 cantilevered benches built over a pool of lighted water. Each bench is engraved on the end with the name of one of the 184 people who died on board Flight 77 or in the Pentagon that day.

The bench is made of super duplex stainless steel, used in the reconstruction of the Statue of Liberty and in catapults on aircraft carriers because it is highly resistant to corrosion. That is important because the base of each bench will be submerged in a reflecting pool. The metal will be dent-proof, easy to maintain and have a life span of more than 100 years.

Duplex Stainless Steel Benches

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Duplex Stainless Steel Potential New ApplicationsBesides the known trend in chemical process equipment also the food processing industry is growing.

Industrial Usage

Duplex Stainless Steel in the Food Processing Industry

In very corrosive environments such as mustard and vinegar-making, cheeseDairies, soy sauce storage or fish-canning plants, or even for biochemical reactors it may be necessary to use one of the 'duplex' steels. These have very high levels of chromium — 22% in grade 1.4462 (2205) and 23% in grade 1.4362 (2304) — and, in the case of 1.4462, about 3% molybdenum.

They have a resistance to general corrosion similar to the austenitic stainless steels but much higher mechanical strength. They also have a much better resistance to stress corrosion cracking than austenitic stainless steels (although not quite as good a resistance as the ferritic grades) and a resistance to crevice and pitting corrosion superior to the 1.4401 (AISI 316) austenitics.

Duplex storage tanks

Duplex wine storage

Duplex biochemical reactor

Duplex storage tanks

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Duplex Stainless Steel Potential New ApplicationsDuplex stainless steels are gaining market share in a variety of applications.

Nato submarine rescue system (defense)A new submarine rescue system has been developed for use by NATO. The system is built from 5 mm grade SAF2205 stainless steel which was selected because of its strength. Weight was an important consideration in material selection as the system is normally flown to the rescue site. Due to the high strength of SAF2205, thinner gauges could be used, making the end product lighter. The 100 m3 hyperbaric complex consists of five connected chambers. Each chamber can be isolated from the others independently. Up to 72 people can be accommodated in the system. The system has been developed to the relevant industry standards. Hydro tests were run on the system and all were completed successfully. Source: ISSF

The conventional materials for such tankers, where the load is at -196 degrees Celsius, are austenitic stainless steel EN 1.4301 / ASTM 304 on the inside and painted carbon steel on the outside. (A road tanker for cryogenic materials has a double hull, and only the inner hull comes into contact with the load.) New trends wanted to find an alternative to 1.4301/304 in the outer hull as well. Lean duplex stainless steel is an alternative. However, LDX 2101 is not applicable to tank loads in temperatures below -40 degrees Celsius, so it cannot replace 1.4301/304 in the inner hull.

The dual-duplex concept combines the excellent properties of different duplex stainless steelgrades into an optimal construction. In this example, the more corrosion resistant grade 2205 isexposed to the hostile conditions. Grade 2304 is used where the environment is less corrosive.The benefits of using duplex include improved corrosion resistance and higher strength, comparedto conventional austenitic stainless steels. Duplex chambers can be built with thinner plates,resulting in less material, less beveling and welding, easier handling and lower environmentalimpact. By using the dual-duplex concept, considerable cost savings are possible. Source: ISSF

Evaporators for multi-effect distillation

Blast & Fire WallsIn order to protect living quarters and other vital areas of the platforms, blast and/or firewalls are used. Due to the combination of high mechanical properties at elevated temperatures and corrosion resistance, 316L is widely used for firewalls. Blast walls need to absorb energy rapidly and possess good resistance to buckling as well as good corrosion resistance. SAF 2304 provides these properties and with appropriate designs can offer significant weight savings and therefore reduce costs compared to 316L. Where greater corrosion resistance is required, the higher alloyed duplex grade 2205 may be used. Source: Outokumpu / ATI

LNG road tankers

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Duplex Market Growth Drivers to 2020

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

[in '000

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New Applications - Best Case Project Base & Maintenance


100150200250300350400450500550600650700750

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Base (8$/lb) Low Ni (6$/lb)High Ni (14 $/lb) Agressive Lean Duplex Pricing

Duplex Market Forecast in 3 Ni price scenarios (low – base – high) to 2020

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What is the industry doing to meet the increased demand?Existing leaders invest & new suppliers enter the market

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1996 2000 2015

http://www.nyk.co.jp/en/index.php

http://www.nyk.co.jp/en/index.php


‘Duplex – A Sleeping Beauty …… still to be kissed awake’

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Sleeping Beauty & The Prince


Any Questions?

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market drivers & outlook for duplex stainless steels to 2020 · the consumption of duplex...

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