market equilibrium analysis · market equilibrium the theoretical balance where demand and supply...
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Market Equilibrium Analysis
Richard L. Parli, MAIJuly 24, 2019
Denver, Colorado
Based on research done with Norman G. Miller, Ph.D.University of San Diego
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The World of Market Analysis Wants to Know:
What exactly is
Market Equilibrium?
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Market Equilibrium
What do the academics say?
Vacancy → Equilibrium → Rents
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Market Equilibrium
What do the market analysts?
Vacancy → Equilibrium
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Market Equilibrium
The theoretical balance where demand and supply for a
property, good, or service are equal. Over the long run,
most markets move toward equilibrium, but a balance is
seldom achieved for any period of time.*
* TARE, 14th ed., p. 306
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Market Equilibrium
The theoretical balance where demand and supply for a
property, good, or service are equal. Over the long run,
most markets move toward equilibrium, but a balance is
seldom achieved for any period of time
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Market Equilibrium
The theoretical balance where demand and supply for a
property, good, or service are equal with the only vacant
space being space needed to service the market friction of
normal tenant movements and space needed to
accommodate new demand coming into the market. Over
the long run, most markets move toward equilibrium, but a
balance is seldom achieved for any period of time.
•Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal, Appraisal Institute, 6th ed., p. 139.
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Market Equilibrium
The theoretical balance where demand and supply for a
property, good, or service are equal with the only vacant
space being space needed to service the market friction of
normal tenant movements and space needed to
accommodate new demand coming into the market. Over
the long run, most markets move toward equilibrium, but a
balance is seldom achieved for any period of time.
•Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal, Appraisal Institute, 6th ed., p. 139.
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Market Equilibrium
vacant…space needed to accommodate new demand
coming into the market.
AKA – Lag Vacancy*
The greater the growth rate of demand, the greater the vacancy rate for market in equilibrium.
* Fanning – MARE, 2nd Ed., p. 198
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Market Equilibrium
…with the only vacant space being space needed to service
the market friction of normal tenant movements…
AKA – Frictional Vacancy
First identified in 1947 due to housing shortage following WWII.*
Linked “frictionally vacant units” to excess demand.
*Hauser, P.M. & Jaffe, A.J., “The Extent of the Housing Shortage”, Law & Contemporary
Problems; Winter 1947, Vol. 12 Issue 1, p 3
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Frictional Vacancy
The amount of vacant space needed in a market for its orderly
operation. In a stabilized market, where supply and demand
are in balance, frictional vacancy allows for move-ins and
move-outs. In markets for income-producing property,
frictional vacancy measures the lost rental income as leases
roll over and expire. *
* TARE, 14th ed., p. 328
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Frictional Vacancy
Frictional Vacancy
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Supportable demand
The total supply that a given amount of demand can support;
equals measured demand plus an allowance for frictional
vacancy.
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Supportable Demand
Frictional
Vacancy
Demand
Supportable
Demand
= Demand ÷ ( 1-Vf )
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Market Equilibrium
The theoretical balance where demand and supply for a
property, good, or service are equal…
But Supportable Demand Includes Vacancy!
Does Supportable Demand Define Market Equilibrium?
i.e., does frictional vacancy define equilibrium vacancy?
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Market Equilibrium
What do the academics say?
Vacancy → Equilibrium → Rents
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Market Equilibrium
Equilibrium linked with Idle Assets and prices in 1968.*
• “Full Employment” is less than 100% due to frictional forces.
• “Full Employment” is defined by stable wages
*Friedman, Milton, “The Role of Monetary Policy”, The American Economic Review,
Volume LVIII, Number 1, March 1968, p. 8.
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Market Equilibrium
What do market analysts say?
Vacancy → Equilibrium → Rents∕
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Mueller, Glenn R., “Real Estate Rental Growth Rates in Physical Market Cycle”,
Journal of Real Estate Research," Volume 18, Number 1, 1999, p. 135.
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Market Equilibrium (Proposed)
The balance of space where supply of a property type
exceeds demand by an amount of space that produces
stable rents.
or simply:
The relationship of demand and supply that results in real
rent stability.
•
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Equilibrium Vacancy
The amount of vacancy that would be expected for a
given market when it is at a point of equilibrium.*
* From the revised MA & HABU Course
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Equilibrium Vacancy (Proposed)
The amount of vacant space needed in a market to
achieve stabilized rents. In a stabilized market,
where supply and demand are in balance,
equilibrium vacancy is the vacancy that produces
no upward or downward pressure on rents.
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5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$5.00/fs
$10.00/fs
$15.00/fs
$20.00/fs
$25.00/fs
$30.00/fs
Vac
ancy
Rat
e Re
al Re
nt/SF
Quarter
DENVER CLASS A OFFICE
Real Rent Vacancy Rate
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5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$5.00/fs
$10.00/fs
$15.00/fs
$20.00/fs
$25.00/fs
$30.00/fs
Vac
ancy
Rat
e Re
al Re
nt/SF
Quarter
DENVER CLASS A OFFICE
Real Rent Vacancy Rate
Where’s the Equilibrium?
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Ways to Measure Equilibrium Vacancy
1. Average of Long Term Vacancy (Normal Vacancy)
2. Regression to determine vacancy that produces
no change in rent
3. Graphic Interpretation
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WASHINGTON, DC CLASS A OFFICE SPACE
Time Frame 80 quarters (1Q1993 – 4Q2012)
Office Buildings 196
Total RBA 52,782,623 square feet
Beginning Vacancy Rate 13.0%
Ending Vacancy Rate 10.3%
Vacancy Rate Range 5.4% - 14.4%
Average (Normal) Vacancy Rate 9.3%
Beginning Direct Avg. Rent $32.80 full service per square foot
Ending Direct Avg. Rent $52.88 full service per square foot
Average Direct Avg. Rent $41.77 full service per square foot
Direct Avg. Rent Range $29.90 - $53.30 full service per square foot
1
Equilibrium Vacancy Rate?
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Rn = ƒ(E, Ve ̶ V)
where Rn is the rate of change of nominal rent, E is the
rate of change of total operating expenses (intended to
reflect the nominal price influences on Rn), and V is the
actual vacancy rate and Ve is the equilibrium rate.
Regression Approach
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Rn = b0 – b1V + b2E
↓
Rr = b0 – b1V
↓
Ve = b0 ÷ b1
Regression Approach
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Regression Results – DC Class A Office 1
Rn = b0 – b1V
CATEGORY COEFFICIENT t-STAT.
Intercept 0.029419 3.16284
Variable -0.25073 -2.57357
R2 0.079203 Vf 11.7%
2 1
Rr = b0 – b1V
CATEGORY COEFFICIENT t-STAT.
Intercept 0.021723175 2.303902564
Variable -0.223472577 -2.262832755
R2 0.062352489 Vf 9.7%
2
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Ve = ±9.5%
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CITY Chicago San Diego Atlanta Denver Dallas Charlotte Boston San Francisco Seattle
Quarters 2Q1996-4Q2013 2Q1999-4Q2013 1Q1996-4Q2013 4Q1999-4Q2013 1Q1996-4Q2013 1Q2000-4Q2013 1Q1998-4Q2013 1Q1997-4Q2013 1Q2000-4Q2013
Mean Vacancy Rate 14.1% 14.2% 14.7% 13.8% 20.1% 10.8% 8.2% 8.8% 10.1%
Graphic Interpretation ±15% ±16% ±15% ±13% ±18% ±10% ±8% ±10% ±8%
Regression Results - Nominal
Equilibrium Vacancy 15.9% 15.6% 15.8% 14.9% 21.8% 12.1% 9.1% 11.6% 10.7%
SUMMARY OF EQUILIBRIUM VACANCY RESULTS
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Vacancy Hierarchy
FrictionalEquilibrium
Overall
Oversupplied Market
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Vacancy Hierarchy
FrictionalEquilibrium Overall
Undersupplied Market
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Vacancy Hierarchy
FrictionalEquilibrium Overall
Market in Equilibrium
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When do rents actually move in a DCF?
What are some Unanswered Questions?
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EXAMPLE - EAST END CLASS A OFFICE
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Line Category Previous Year Last Year Current Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
1 City Employment 678,999 692,579 706,431 720,559 734,970 749,670 764,663 779,956
2 % housed in freestanding office 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80%
3 Office employment 419,621 428,014 436,574 445,306 454,212 463,296 472,562 482,013
4 Average space/worker (sq. ft.) 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261
5 Demand for citywide office space 109,521,181 111,711,604 113,945,836 116,224,753 118,549,248 120,920,233 123,338,638 125,805,411
6 % Capture by East End 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90%
7 East End Office Demand 34,937,257 35,636,002 36,348,722 37,075,696 37,817,210 38,573,554 39,345,025 40,131,926
8 % Capture by Class A 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60%
9 East End Class A Office Demand 9,939,858 10,138,655 10,341,428 10,548,257 10,759,222 10,974,406 11,193,894 11,417,772 11,646,128 11,879,050
10 Current East End Class A Supply 10,463,001 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
11 New East End Class A Supply 0 500,000 350,000 500,000 750,000 0 0 0 0 0
12 Total Supply 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
13 Vacant Rate 5% 8% 9% 11% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%
14 Rental Rates $40.00 $40.00 $39.00 $38.00 $37.00 $36.00 $36.00 $38.00 $39.00 $40.00
EAST END CLASS A OFFICE MARKET
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Line Category Previous Year Last Year Current Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
1 City Employment 678,999 692,579 706,431 720,559 734,970 749,670 764,663 779,956
2 % housed in freestanding office 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80%
3 Office employment 419,621 428,014 436,574 445,306 454,212 463,296 472,562 482,013
4 Average space/worker (sq. ft.) 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261
5 Demand for citywide office space 109,521,181 111,711,604 113,945,836 116,224,753 118,549,248 120,920,233 123,338,638 125,805,411
6 % Capture by East End 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90%
7 East End Office Demand 34,937,257 35,636,002 36,348,722 37,075,696 37,817,210 38,573,554 39,345,025 40,131,926
8 % Capture by Class A 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60%
9 East End Class A Office Demand 9,939,858 10,138,655 10,341,428 10,548,257 10,759,222 10,974,406 11,193,894 11,417,772 11,646,128 11,879,050
10 Current East End Class A Supply 10,463,001 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
11 New East End Class A Supply 0 500,000 350,000 500,000 750,000 0 0 0 0 0
12 Total Supply 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
13 Vacant Rate 5% 8% 9% 11% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%
14 Rental Rates $40.00 $40.00 $39.00 $38.00 $37.00 $36.00 $36.00 $38.00 $39.00 $40.00
EAST END CLASS A OFFICE MARKET
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Line Category Previous Year Last Year Current Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
1 City Employment 678,999 692,579 706,431 720,559 734,970 749,670 764,663 779,956
2 % housed in freestanding office 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80%
3 Office employment 419,621 428,014 436,574 445,306 454,212 463,296 472,562 482,013
4 Average space/worker (sq. ft.) 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261
5 Demand for citywide office space 109,521,181 111,711,604 113,945,836 116,224,753 118,549,248 120,920,233 123,338,638 125,805,411
6 % Capture by East End 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90%
7 East End Office Demand 34,937,257 35,636,002 36,348,722 37,075,696 37,817,210 38,573,554 39,345,025 40,131,926
8 % Capture by Class A 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60%
9 East End Class A Office Demand 9,939,858 10,138,655 10,341,428 10,548,257 10,759,222 10,974,406 11,193,894 11,417,772 11,646,128 11,879,050
10 Current East End Class A Supply 10,463,001 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
11 New East End Class A Supply 0 500,000 350,000 500,000 750,000 0 0 0 0 0
12 Total Supply 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
13 Vacant Rate 5% 8% 9% 11% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%
14 Rental Rates $40.00 $40.00 $39.00 $38.00 $37.00 $36.00 $36.00 $38.00 $39.00 $40.00
EAST END CLASS A OFFICE MARKET
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Line Category Previous Year Last Year Current Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
1 City Employment 678,999 692,579 706,431 720,559 734,970 749,670 764,663 779,956
2 % housed in freestanding office 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80%
3 Office employment 419,621 428,014 436,574 445,306 454,212 463,296 472,562 482,013
4 Average space/worker (sq. ft.) 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261
5 Demand for citywide office space 109,521,181 111,711,604 113,945,836 116,224,753 118,549,248 120,920,233 123,338,638 125,805,411
6 % Capture by East End 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90%
7 East End Office Demand 34,937,257 35,636,002 36,348,722 37,075,696 37,817,210 38,573,554 39,345,025 40,131,926
8 % Capture by Class A 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60%
9 East End Class A Office Demand 9,939,858 10,138,655 10,341,428 10,548,257 10,759,222 10,974,406 11,193,894 11,417,772 11,646,128 11,879,050
10 Current East End Class A Supply 10,463,001 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
11 New East End Class A Supply 0 500,000 350,000 500,000 750,000 0 0 0 0 0
12 Total Supply 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
13 Vacant Rate 5% 8% 9% 11% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%
14 Rental Rates $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $38.00 $36.00 $36.00 $36.00 $38.00 $39.00 $40.00
EAST END CLASS A OFFICE MARKET
$30.00
$32.00
$34.00
$36.00
$38.00
$40.00
$42.00
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Re
nta
l Rat
e
Vac
ancy
Rat
e
Year
East End Class A Office Space
Vacancy Rate Rental Rate
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Line Category Previous Year Last Year Current Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
1 City Employment 678,999 692,579 706,431 720,559 734,970 749,670 764,663 779,956
2 % housed in freestanding office 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80%
3 Office employment 419,621 428,014 436,574 445,306 454,212 463,296 472,562 482,013
4 Average space/worker (sq. ft.) 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261
5 Demand for citywide office space 109,521,181 111,711,604 113,945,836 116,224,753 118,549,248 120,920,233 123,338,638 125,805,411
6 % Capture by East End 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90%
7 East End Office Demand 34,937,257 35,636,002 36,348,722 37,075,696 37,817,210 38,573,554 39,345,025 40,131,926
8 % Capture by Class A 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60%
9 East End Class A Office Demand 9,939,858 10,138,655 10,341,428 10,548,257 10,759,222 10,974,406 11,193,894 11,417,772 11,646,128 11,879,050
10 Current East End Class A Supply 10,463,001 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
11 New East End Class A Supply 0 500,000 350,000 500,000 750,000 0 0 0 0 0
12 Total Supply 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
13 Vacant Rate 5% 8% 9% 11% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%
14 Rental Rates $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $38.00 $36.00 $36.00 $36.00 $38.00 $39.00 $40.00
EAST END CLASS A OFFICE MARKET
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Line Category Previous Year Last Year Current Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
1 City Employment 678,999 692,579 706,431 720,559 734,970 749,670 764,663 779,956
2 % housed in freestanding office 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80%
3 Office employment 419,621 428,014 436,574 445,306 454,212 463,296 472,562 482,013
4 Average space/worker (sq. ft.) 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261
5 Demand for citywide office space 109,521,181 111,711,604 113,945,836 116,224,753 118,549,248 120,920,233 123,338,638 125,805,411
6 % Capture by East End 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90%
7 East End Office Demand 34,937,257 35,636,002 36,348,722 37,075,696 37,817,210 38,573,554 39,345,025 40,131,926
8 % Capture by Class A 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60%
9 East End Class A Office Demand 9,939,858 10,138,655 10,341,428 10,548,257 10,759,222 10,974,406 11,193,894 11,417,772 11,646,128 11,879,050
10 Current East End Class A Supply 10,463,001 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
11 New East End Class A Supply 0 500,000 350,000 500,000 750,000 0 0 0 0 0
12 Total Supply 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
13 Vacant Rate 5% 8% 9% 11% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%
14 Rental Rates $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $38.00 $36.00 $36.00 $36.00 $38.00 $39.00 $40.00
EAST END CLASS A OFFICE MARKET
$30.00
$32.00
$34.00
$36.00
$38.00
$40.00
$42.00
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Re
nta
l Rat
e
Vac
ancy
Rat
e
Year
East End Class A Office Space
Vacancy Rate Rental Rate
?
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Line Category Previous Year Last Year Current Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
1 City Employment 678,999 692,579 706,431 720,559 734,970 749,670 764,663 779,956
2 % housed in freestanding office 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80% 61.80%
3 Office employment 419,621 428,014 436,574 445,306 454,212 463,296 472,562 482,013
4 Average space/worker (sq. ft.) 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261
5 Demand for citywide office space 109,521,181 111,711,604 113,945,836 116,224,753 118,549,248 120,920,233 123,338,638 125,805,411
6 % Capture by East End 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90% 31.90%
7 East End Office Demand 34,937,257 35,636,002 36,348,722 37,075,696 37,817,210 38,573,554 39,345,025 40,131,926
8 % Capture by Class A 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60% 29.60%
9 East End Class A Office Demand 9,939,858 10,138,655 10,341,428 10,548,257 10,759,222 10,974,406 11,193,894 11,417,772 11,646,128 11,879,050
10 Current East End Class A Supply 10,463,001 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
11 New East End Class A Supply 0 500,000 350,000 500,000 750,000 0 0 0 0 0
12 Total Supply 10,463,001 10,963,001 11,313,001 11,813,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001 12,563,001
13 Vacant Rate 5% 8% 9% 11% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%
14 Rental Rates $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $38.00 $36.00 $36.00 $36.00 $38.00 $39.00 $40.00
EAST END CLASS A OFFICE MARKET – Ve = 10%
$30.00
$32.00
$34.00
$36.00
$38.00
$40.00
$42.00
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Re
nta
l Ra
te
Va
can
cy R
ate
Year
East End Class A Office Space
Vacancy Rate Rental Rate
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CITY Chicago San Diego Atlanta Denver Dallas Charlotte Boston San Francisco Seattle
Quarters 2Q1996-4Q2013 2Q1999-4Q2013 1Q1996-4Q2013 4Q1999-4Q2013 1Q1996-4Q2013 1Q2000-4Q2013 1Q1998-4Q2013 1Q1997-4Q2013 1Q2000-4Q2013
Mean Vacancy Rate 14.1% 14.2% 14.7% 13.8% 20.1% 10.8% 8.2% 8.8% 10.1%
Graphic Interpretation ±15% ±16% ±15% ±13% ±18% ±10% ±8% ±10% ±8%
Regression Results - Nominal
Equilibrium Vacancy 15.9% 15.6% 15.8% 14.9% 21.8% 12.1% 9.1% 11.6% 10.7%
SUMMARY OF EQUILIBRIUM VACANCY RESULTS
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Ve = ±16%
Real Rent
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How steep are the rent movements?
What are some Unanswered Questions?
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What about Supportable Demand and
equilibrium vacancy?
What are some Unanswered Questions?
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Supportable demand (new)
The total supply that a given amount of demand
can support; equals measured demand plus an
allowance for equilibrium vacancy. *
* Revised MA & HABU Course
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THIS IS NOT THE END*
*You haven’t heard the last of me!
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References
Parli, Richard L. & Miller, Norman G. "Revisiting the Derivation of an Equilibrium Vacancy Rate," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Vol. 20, Issue 3, 2014.
Parli, Richard L. & Miller, Norman G. “Market Equilibrium Analysis,” The Appraisal Journal”, Fall 2017.