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  • 8/2/2019 Market Outlook 040512

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    Market OutlookMay 4, 2012

    www.angelbroking.com

    Dealers Diary

    The Indian markets are expected to open flat to negative tracking negative cues

    from global markets. Asian stocks fell for a second day as U.S. service industries

    expanded less than forecast.

    The US markets closed lower yesterday amongst a mixed set of data releases. Thestocks came under pressure following the release of a report from the Institute for

    Supply Management showing an unexpected slowdown in the pace of growth in

    the service sector in the month of April. The ISM said its non-manufacturing index

    dropped to 53.5 in April from 56.0 in March. The markets largely shrugged off the

    release of a Labor Department report showing a bigger than expected drop in

    initial jobless claims in the week ended April 28th, with traders looking ahead to

    the release of the monthly jobs report on Friday.

    Indian shares fell for a second consecutive session on Thursday, with heavyweight

    auto, metal and banking shares pacing the declines. The rupee hit a fresh four-

    month low of 53.45 against the dollar, as overseas investors awaited more clarity

    on how the government will resolve tax policy issues like GAAR.

    Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 17,181 / 5,195 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 17,242 17,332 / 5,210 5,232 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    17,181 / 5,195 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    17,091 17,030 / 5,174 5,159 levels.

    Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 17,030 17,091 17,181 17,242 17,332

    NIFTY 5,159 5,174 5,195 5,210 5,232

    News Analysis RBI releases Basel3 Guidelines Reliance Industries fined`6,600cr for lower KG-D6 output IRBs stock plunges 11% as Chairman is being investigated in murder case 4QFY2012 Result Reviews Marico, Aventis, KEC, ATXL, Finolex Cables 4QFY2012 Result Previews Bank of Baroda, Corporation Bank, ITNLRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (April 30, 2012)

    ` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 2,114 1,573 541 (1,865) 43,461

    MFs 725 876 (152) (676) (6,249)FII Derivatives (May 03, 2012)

    ` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,152 1,389 (237) 8,599

    Stock Futures 1,022 1,238 (216) 20,412

    Gainers / Losers

    Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Pipavav Defence 87 8.5 IRB Infra 150 (10.9)

    United Phosphorus 127 5.9 Hero MotoCorp 2,072 (7.7)

    Shree Renuka Sug 32 4.4 Educomp Sol. 187 (5.4)

    Godrej Cons. 567 3.4 Sintex Ind. 67 (5.3)

    Glenmark Pharma 337 2.2 Aditya Birla Nuvo 884 (5.0)

    Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex (0.9) (150.7) 17,151

    Nifty (1.0) (50.8) 5,188

    MID CAP (1.0) (64.2) 6,235

    SMALL CAP (1.0) (68.0) 6,710

    BSE HC (0.2) (11.2) 6,787

    BSE PSU (1.5) (104.4) 7,104

    BANKEX (1.7) (206.6) 11,654

    AUTO (2.4) (253.9) 10,209

    METAL (1.8) (192.4) 10,834

    OIL & GAS (0.7) (51.1) 7,868

    BSE IT 0.7 40.9 5,787

    Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones (0.5) (62.0) 13,207NASDAQ (1.2) (35.6) 3,024

    FTSE 0.2 8.4 5,767

    Nikkei 0.3 29.3 9,380

    Hang Seng (0.3) (59.6) 21,250

    Straits Times 0.0 0.9 3,007

    Shanghai Com 0.1 1.6 2,440

    Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (1.9) (0.9) $46.7

    WIT (1.0) (0.1) $9.5IBN (4.9) (1.6) $31.8

    HDB (1.4) (0.5) $33.0

    Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,055 429

    Declines 1,719 1,046

    Unchanged 107 68

    Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,921

    NSE 10,004

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    Market OutlookMay 4, 2012

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    RBI releases Basel3 Guidelines

    What the guidelines entail: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released the final guidelinesregarding the Basel-3 norms yesterday. Amongst other details, the key point is that

    the banks will have to achieve a minimum Core Equity Tier-I capital adequacy

    (CET1) of 5% by FY2014, which in a staggered manner will then have to beincreased to 8% by FY2018.

    RBI Guidelines for transitional arrangements for Basel-3 norms

    Minimum capital ratios FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18Minimum Common Equity Tier 1 4.5 5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5

    Capital conservation buffer (CCB) - - 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.5

    Minimum CET1+ CCB 4.5 5 6.2 6.8 7.4 8

    Minimum Tier 1 capital 6 6.5 7 7 7 7

    Minimum Total Capital 9 9 9 9 9 9

    Minimum Total Capital +CCB 9 9 9.6 10.2 10.9 11.5

    Phase-in of all deductions from CET1 (in %) 20 40 60 80 100 100

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Immediate impact: For 27 banks under our coverage (comprising 85% of thesector), as on FY2012 none of them are estimated to be below the immediate

    threshold of 5% of CET1 to be achieved by FY2014. However, in our view by

    FY2014, almost all banks will look to maintain a minimum CET1 of at least 8% to

    be comfortably above the minimum requirements.

    Based on this, a handful of banks including primarily a few small PSU banks likeCentral Bank, Vijaya Bank and UCO Bank would be the only ones that would be

    below the 8% threshold. This is because, for most other banks post the government

    infusion already announced, they are likely to be above 8% CET1 from FY2013

    itself. Few others such as Corporation Bank, IOB, IDBI and United Bank would also

    be marginally below 8%. SBI is likely to be the only large-cap that may end up

    below 8% (unless their risk-weighted asset growth lags total asset growth). In case

    of the smaller banks, since they are trading well below 1x P/ABV, capital raising

    would result in dilution in EPS of 4% to 18% and in book value to the extent of 2%

    to 5% of our current estimates. In case of SBI, dilution would be book-accretive but

    EPS-dilutive.

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    Market OutlookMay 4, 2012

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    Exhibit 1:Shortfall (below 8% core tier-I capital) for banks under our coverage as of FY2014EBank Core Tier-1cap FY11 CapitalInfusion Retained EarningsFY2013-14 CET1FY14 CET1 %FY14 Shortfallfor 8% Shortfall(Rs cr) Dilutionrequired EPSimpact ABVPSimpactFEDBK 5,084 - 2,045 7,129 13.3 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    J&KBK 3,444 - 2,000 5,444 12.2 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    SIB 1,650 - 993 2,644 11.1 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    DENABK 3,356 151 2,084 5,591 10.5 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    HDFCBK 24,055 - 15,557 39,612 10.4 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    INDBK 7,842 - 4,593 12,436 10.4 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    ICICIBK 47,547 - 13,409 60,956 9.9 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    CANBK 17,549 - 8,959 26,508 9.8 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    ALLBK 7,597 1,462 4,924 13,984 9.7 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    OBC 10,170 - 3,593 13,763 9.3 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    BOB 19,063 1,613 12,749 33,425 9.3 - - - 0.0% 0.0%SYNBK 6,640 866 3,571 11,078 9.0 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    ANDHBK 6,436 - 3,159 9,595 8.9 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    AXSB 18,084 - 11,875 29,960 8.6 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    PNB 18,958 2,875 12,811 34,645 8.4 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    BOM 2,509 995 1,566 5,069 8.4 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    BOI 15,282 2,083 8,210 25,574 8.2 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    YESBK 3,683 - 3,044 6,727 8.0 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    UNBK 11,027 1,005 5,189 17,221 8.0 - - - 0.0% 0.0%

    CRPBK 7,086 - 3,681 10,768 7.8 0.2 285 0.7 -3.4% -1.7%

    UTDBK 3,546 305 1,616 5,467 7.8 0.2 159 2.3 -4.7% -2.7%

    IDBI 12,058 5,293 5,776 23,127 7.8 0.2 717 7.1 -3.7% -1.8%

    IOB 7,775 1,978 2,960 12,713 7.6 0.4 754 8.4 -6.7% -3.8%

    UCOBK 4,809 759 2,751 8,319 7.2 0.8 880 11.2 -10.5% -2.6%

    SBI 78,812 7,900 33,375 120,087 7.0 1.0 16,492 7.7 -4.8% 5.7%

    VIJAYA 3,258 147 1,185 4,589 6.9 1.1 694 11.9 -12.3% -4.7%

    CENTBK 7,631 1,000 2,282 10,913 6.4 1.6 2,671 27.2 -17.9% -2.5%

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Medium-term impact: The immediate impact is restricted to few smaller banks (ofwhich, in case of the three most exposed banks vis. Central Bank, Vijaya Bank and

    UCO bank we have a Neutral / Reduce rating). However, in the medium-term in

    our view the Basel 3 guidelines imply significant capital shortage for the Indian

    Banking system. By the end of FY2018, as the minimum CET1 requirement itself

    moves to 8%, we believe most of the banks would look to maintain closer to 9-

    10% CET1 capital adequacy.

    At the same time, if we factor in 17% asset growth for the sector between FY2014-

    18E and assume that average ROEs for the sector improve by 100-200bps, then

    based on retained earnings alone, CET1 is estimated to decline to 7.9% from the

    current 9.1% estimated for FY2012. Even if on average, the sector is to maintain

    9% CET1 this implies a capital shortage of about`

    1.4lakh cr and at 10% CET1, ashortage of Rs2.6lakh cr. This amounts to 14% and 27% of the sectors networth,

    respectively, or an additional equity requirement of 2.5%-4.5% every year for the

    next 6 years.

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    Market OutlookMay 4, 2012

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    Exhibit 2:Movement of Core Tier-I ratio* over FY2012-FY2018EYear (` cr) Core Tier 1 RWA Core Tier 1 ratioFY2012 431,276 4,708,821 9.2FY2013 489,196 5,555,887 8.8

    FY2014 557,604 6,554,308 8.5

    FY2015 638,456 7,668,540 8.3

    FY2016 734,224 8,972,192 8.2

    FY2017 844,358 10,497,465 8.0

    FY2018 971,012 12,282,034 7.9

    Source: Company; Note:*For our coverage universe which account for ~85% of overall industry

    Exhibit 3:Sector wide shortfall as of FY2018EShortfall Core Tier-Iratio - FY18 Shortfall(ppt) Shortfall(` cr) % of Core FY18tier-I capitalSector wide shortfall at 9% 7.9 1.1 139,594 14.4%

    Sector wide shortfall at 10% 7.9 2.1 262,944 27.1%

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    New Bank licenses: In our view, the issue of more new bank licenses than theearlier anticipated 3-4, including to some large corporates, with each of them

    looking to invest about`5,000-10,000cr of equity capital, was one of the key risks

    on the horizon for the banking sector. However, in light of Basel 3 requirements,

    even if the RBI does give more new bank licenses, in our view in light of the capital

    shortage in the banking sector post Basel 3 requirements, over a 6 year period,

    this would still not amount to a supply glut. On the contrary, even after the

    `30,000cr-40,000cr of fresh capital, there would still be significant capital

    shortage which would have to be met by the incumbents.

    Positive implications of capital shortage: For the sector as a whole, in our view,even after factoring in new bank licenses, we expect intensity of balance sheet

    competition to be low especially from the PSU banks. As a result, we continue to

    have a positive outlook on overall margins and ROEs from a one-year +

    perspective (notwithstanding any short-term re-pricing and asset quality related

    volatility in margins).

    The benefit of this will be especially enjoyed by those banks which already have

    high capital adequacy (main beneficiaries include ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank) or

    which can raise equity at high book-accretive premiums (such as Axis Bank and

    Yes Bank). In our view, these banks will stand to benefit from high

    margins/ROAs/ROEs as well as market share gains from a medium-term

    perspective. Of these, taking into account valuations as well, we reiterate Axis

    Bank, ICICI Bank and Yes Bank as our top picks.

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    Market OutlookMay 4, 2012

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    Reliance Industries fined`6,600cr for lower KG-D6 output

    The Oil Ministry has imposed a penalty of ~ `6,600cr (US$1.2bn) on Reliance

    Industries (RIL) for the steep fall in gas output from the KG-D6 block. Production

    from KG-D6 had gradually declined to 35mmscmd in 4QFY2012 from

    51mmscmd in 4QFY2011. The penalty for lower production stood at US$457mnand US$778mn for FY2011 and FY2012, respectively. The Oil Ministry stated that

    RIL had violated the production sharing contract (PSC) and wilfully drilled fewer

    wells than what it had committed in its approved plan, Amended Initial

    Development Plan (AIDP). However, RIL had stated earlier that unexpected geology

    had resulted in decline in gas production. We await further clarity on this issue

    from RIL. Until then, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of`872.

    IRBs stock plunges 11% as Chairman is being investigated

    in murder case

    As per media reports, IRBs Chairman, Virendra Mhaiskar, is one of the 10 people

    identified by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) of being potentially involved

    in the killing of Satish Shetty (RTI activist) in 2010. The outbreak of this news led to

    a decline in IRBs stock by as much as 18%; however, the stock recovered and

    closed down by 11%.

    As per the clarification given by the company to stock exchanges, the deceased RTI

    activist's brother had named various people, including Mr. Mhaiskar, as suspects.

    The Police Department had conducted an inquiry in the matter and given a clean

    chit to Mr. Mhaiskar. However, the deceased's brother was not happy with theinvestigation conducted by the department; and upon his petition, the state

    government had handed over the investigation to CBI. During the course of the

    investigation, CBI has, along with several other suspects, asked Mr. Mhaiskar and

    other two company officials to undergo a polygraph test.

    Mr. Mhaiskar and the companys officials have readily agreed to undergo the

    polygraph test since they are confident of their non-involvement in the matter.

    Fundamentally, we have a target price of `228 for IRB. However, we believe thatthe stock could remain volatile until clarity emerges on this case. Thus, this eventcould remain an overhang on the stock in the near term.

    Result Reviews

    Marico

    For 4QFY2012, Marico posted 22.9% yoy growth in its consolidated net sales to

    `917cr, which was in-line with our estimates. Top-line growth was driven by

    volume growth across categories in the domestic business as well improvement in

    realizations. Maricos international business also posted strong organic growth of

    24% yoy. The companys OPM stood at 12.3%, up 134bp on a yoy basis, aided by

    a decline in input costs. Net profit fell by 4% yoy to`69.4cr as the company had

    exceptional gain of `76cr in 4QFY11. We maintain our Neutralrecommendation on the stock.

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    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2013E 4,669 13.0 416 6.8 30.5 26.5 7.2 18.4 2.5

    FY2014E 5,467 12.9 503 8.2 28.8 21.9 5.6 15.4 2.1

    Aventis - (CMP`2,138/TP: - /Upside: -)Aventis reported a higher than expected sales growth, while the net profit came in

    below expectations. For the quarter, the company posted sales of`323cr, a rise of

    16.7% yoy. On the operating front, the Gross and Operating margins came in at

    50.6% and 15.3% respectively. While the Gross margins were in line with

    expectations, the OPMs came in higher than the expectations of 14.6%. However,

    in spite of the higher than expected improvement in the sales and OPM front, the

    net profit came in at `40.1cr, V/s expectations of `51.5cr, on account of higher

    than expected deprecations expenses during the quarter. Currently the stock isvalued at 20.5xCY2013E earnings. We maintain a Neutral stance on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)CY2012E 1,482 15.0 217 94 18.6 22.6 4.0 21.5 3.2

    CY2013E 1,660 15.0 240 104 17.6 20.5 3.3 15.6 2.3

    KEC International (CMP:`56/TP:`73 /Upside: 31%)

    KEC International (KEC) posted a strong set of numbers for 4QFY2012, exceeding

    our expectations. The companys consolidated revenue grew strongly by 32.7% yoy

    to `2,069cr (`1,559cr), which was 8.8% higher than our estimate of `1,902cr.

    Stellar growth was mainly due to strong execution in the international transmission

    business, delivering robust 68.7% yoy growth.

    On the operating front, EBITDA margin saw a ~230bp yoy contraction to 8.2%,

    slightly better than our estimate of 8.0%. The companys margin was primarily

    impacted by higher raw-material cost. Interest expense grew by 28.2% yoy to

    `41cr on the back of higher interest rates. PAT declined by 5.3% yoy to `74cr,

    9.1% higher than our estimate of`68.2cr and consensus estimate of`62.9cr.

    Order book at the end of the quarter stood at `8,572cr, majorly aided by robustorder inflows totaling`1,800cr during the quarter. Strong order accretion since the

    past few quarters is mainly attributable to the companys diversified business

    operations, with equal exposure to domestic and international markets.

    At the CMP, the stock trades at cheap valuation of 4.6x FY2014E PE. Thus,we recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `73.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2013E 6,686 8.5 271 10.6 26.0 5.3 1.0 5.3 0.5

    FY2014E 7,200 8.7 313 12.2 24.1 4.6 0.8 4.3 0.4

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    Automotive Axles (CMP:`525/TP: - /Upside: -)Automotive Axles (ATXL) reported modest 6.3% yoy (1% qoq) growth in net sales to

    `296cr in 2QSY2012, which was in-line with growth in the medium and heavy

    commercial vehicle segment (up 5.5% yoy). EBITDA margin remained stable at

    12.5% on stable commodity prices. As a result, EBITDA grew by 5.8% yoy to`

    37cr.Led by higher other income (`2cr as against `0.1cr in 2QSY2011), net profit

    reported 4.6% yoy (down 2.5% qoq) growth to `19cr. At `525, we believe the

    stock is fairly valued at 9.3x its SY2013E earnings. We, therefore, maintain ourNeutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)SY2012E 1,211 11.9 76 50.5 27.9 10.4 2.6 5.9 0.7

    SY2013E 1,390 11.5 85 56.3 25.3 9.3 2.1 5.1 0.6

    Finolex Cables(CMP: `34/ TP:`60 / Upside: 78%)Finolex Cables announced a strong set of numbers for 4QFY2012. The companys

    net sales grew by 21.1% qoq and 12.1% yoy to`605cr on the back of strong sales

    in the electrical segment. The electrical cables segment registered 39.5% qoq and

    21.3% yoy growth in revenue to`506cr. While the companys other two segments

    communication cables and copper rods division continued their poor run,

    witnessing a decline of 27.4% and 36.7% yoy in revenue, respectively. The

    companys EBITDA increased by 45.9% yoy to`58cr (`40cr) on the back of higher

    revenue and margin expansion. EBITDA margin expanded by 223bp yoy and136bp qoq to 9.6% on account of lower raw-material costs. Raw-material cost as

    a percentage of sales declined to 74.9% in 4QFY2012 compared to 80.2% in

    4QFY2011. PAT increased by 139% yoy to`45cr (`19cr) on the back of margin

    expansion, lower forex loss, higher other income and tax adjustments. Other

    income increased by 130% yoy to `9cr, while forex loss declined by 15.6% to

    `10cr. Consequently, PAT margin increased by 391bp yoy to 7.4% (3.5%). Wecurrently have a Buy recommendation on the stock. We may revise our estimatesand target price post an interaction with management.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2013E 2,341 8.5 122 8.0 14.8 4.2 0.6 1.9 0.2

    FY2014E 2,656 8.8 152 10.0 16.6 3.4 0.5 1.2 0.1

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    Result Previews

    Bank of Baroda

    Bank of Baroda is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the

    bank to report healthy net interest income growth of 7.3% yoy to`2,804cr. Non-

    interest income is expected to grow higher by 14.7% yoy to `957cr. While overall

    operating income growth is expected to come in at 9.1% yoy, a 12.1% yoy decline

    in operating expenses is expected to lead to an improvement in cost-to-income

    ratio to 35.1% from 43.6% in 4QFY2011. Provisioning expenses are expected to

    grow by 5.4% yoy, which coupled with expected tax expenses of `521cr compared

    to `61cr in 4QFY2011 would result in nearly flat yoy growth in net profit to

    `1,297cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.1x FY2014E ABV. We maintain ourBuy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `943.

    Corporation Bank

    Corporation Bank is slated to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect net

    interest income of the bank to grow by healthy 17.8% yoy to`897cr. Non-interest

    income is expected to decline by 3.3% yoy to `474cr. While operating income is

    expected to grow by 9.6% yoy, operating expenses are expected to decline by

    5.0% yoy to`480cr, leading to healthy 19.4% growth in pre-provisioning profits to

    `892cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to increase by 9.0% yoy. Net profit is

    expected to increase by 20.4% yoy to`416cr. Currently, we have a Buy rating onthe stock with a target price of `508.

    ITNL

    We expect IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL) to post a weak set of numbers for

    the quarter on account of high base in 4QFY2011. The companys revenue is

    expected to decline by 9.0% yoy to `1,507cr. We expect the company to register

    flat EBITDAM of 24.8%. Further, on the back of high interest cost, which is

    expected to come in at`200cr, we expect ITNLs earnings to decline by 30.1% yoy

    to`111.3cr. We recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `265.

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

    Bank of Baroda - (04/05/2012)Particulars (` cr) 4Q FY12E 4Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 3Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,307 1,294 1 1,290 1

    Grasim Industries Ltd - Consolidated (05/05/2012)Particulars (` cr) 4Q FY12E 4Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 3Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,942 6,390 9 6,260 11

    EBITDA 1,541 1,650 (7) 1,413 9

    EBITDA margin (%) 22.2 25.8 22.6

    Net profit 757 865 (12) 669 13

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    GlaxoSmithKline Pharma - (07/05/2012)Particulars (` cr) 4Q FY12E 4Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 3Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,942 6,390 9 6,260 11

    EBITDA 1,541 1,650 (7) 1,413 9

    EBITDA margin (%) 22.2 25.8 22.6

    Net profit 757 865 (12) 669 13

    HDFC - (07/05/2012)Particulars (` cr) 4Q FY12E 4Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 3Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,006 1,142 -12 981 3

    Economic and Political News Oil Ministry disallows US$1.4bn cost recovery by RIL from KG-D6 Government to infuse`30,000cr in Air India over nine years Mobile operators add 8mn users in March 2012 Orissa government mulls cap on iron ore output

    Corporate News

    Dr. Reddy's gets U.S. FDA nod for osteoporosis drug Cipla slashes cancer drug prices by up to 76% Bosch to invest`300cr on capacity expansion Pantaloon raises`200cr from Bennett ColemanSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    May 04, 2012 Bank of Baroda, Corporation Bank, ITNL, D B Corp, ITD Cementation

    May 05, 2012 Grasim Inds, Allahabad Bank, IOB, Syndicate Bank, UCO Bank, United Bank, Bank of Maharashtra

    May 06, 2012 -

    May 07, 2012 HDFC, Bosch India, GSK Pharma, GlaxoSmith Con, Andhra Bank, South Ind.Bank

    May 08, 2012 Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Hindalco, IDFC, Shriram Trans., Central Bank, CESC, Dena Bank, CEAT

    May 09, 2012 Punjab Natl.Bank, Ranbaxy, ABB, Union Bank, IRB Infra, NIIT

    May 10, 2012 NTPC, Cipla, Lupin, Canara Bank, Cadila Healthcare, Reliance Capital, Sintex, Apollo Tyres, HEG

    May 11, 2012 Dr Reddy's, Essar Oil, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, Thermax, Graphite India, Goodyear

    May 12, 2012 J & K Bank, Madhucon Proj, Consolidated Co, Relaxo

    May 13, 2012 -

    May 14, 2012 Mundra Port, Ashok Leyland, Indraprasth Gas

    May 15, 2012 Dishman Pharma

    May 16, 2012 J K Lakshmi Cements

    May 17, 2012 Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam

    May 18, 2012 St Bk of India

    May 19, 2012 Force Motors

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    May 04, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Apr-12 52.60 52.60

    US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Mar-12 120.00 160.00

    US Unnemployment rate % Mar-12 8.20 8.20

    May 10, 2012 China Exports YoY% % Change Mar-12 8.90 8.40

    UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio May-12 0.50 0.50

    UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Feb-12 (2.30) (2.50)

    May 11, 2012 India Industrial Production YoY % Change Feb-12 4.10 --

    US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Mar-12 -- --

    China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Mar-12 11.90 12.10

    China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Mar-12 3.60 3.40

    May 14, 2012 IndiaMonthly Wholesale PricesYoY%

    % Change Mar-12 6.89 --

    May 15, 2012 US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Mar-12 0.30 0.20Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change Dec-11 (0.30) --

    Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change Dec-11 1.50 --

    May 16, 2012 Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Mar-12 2.70 --

    US Industrial Production % Mar-12 -- --

    US Housing Starts Thousands Mar-12 654.00 --

    US Building permits Thousands Mar-12 764.00 --

    UK Jobless claims change % Change Mar-12 3.60 --

    May 22, 2012 Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

    Value Apr-12 (19.90) --

    UK CPI (YoY) % Change Mar-12 3.50 --

    US Existing home sales Millions Mar-12 4.48 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    www.angelbroking.com

    May 04, 2012

    Market Outlook

  • 8/2/2019 Market Outlook 040512

    11/18

    Market StrategyMay 04, 2012

    www.angelbroking.com

    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

    5.8 5.9

    7.5

    9.8

    7.4

    9.4

    8.5

    7.6

    8.3

    7.8 7.7

    6.9

    6.1

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    3QFY09

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    (%)

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:IIP trends

    9.4

    5.36.2

    9.5

    3.7 3.42.5

    (5.0)

    6.0

    2.5

    1.1

    4.1

    (6.0)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    Mar-

    11

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    (%)

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

    9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.810.0 9.9 9.5

    7.76.9 7.0 6.9

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    (%)

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

    Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

    (15)

    0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    75

    90

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Key policy rates8.00

    7.00

    4.75

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oc

    t-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    Mar-

    12

    Apr-

    12

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

  • 8/2/2019 Market Outlook 040512

    12/18

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 115 - 2,236 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 16.4 14.4 3.5 3.0 22.8 22.3 1.6 1.3

    United Phosphorus Buy 127 183 5,850 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 7.4 6.9 1.2 1.1 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Buy 298 345 2,547 2,691 3,032 15.6 15.5 29.4 32.8 10.2 9.1 2.4 1.9 26.5 23.6 0.9 0.8

    Apollo Tyres Buy 85 100 4,274 13,580 15,007 10.1 10.2 10.5 12.5 8.1 6.8 1.3 1.1 21.8 30.7 0.5 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Buy 30 37 7,916 15,008 16,906 9.5 9.5 2.6 3.1 11.6 9.6 2.4 2.1 15.5 17.0 0.6 0.5

    Automotive Axle Neutral 520 - 785 1,211 1,390 11.9 11.5 50.5 56.3 10.3 9.2 2.6 2.1 27.9 25.3 0.7 0.6Bajaj Auto Buy 1,560 1,811 45,154 21,966 24,774 19.8 19.0 111.7 120.7 14.0 12.9 5.4 4.3 43.1 37.1 1.7 1.4

    Bharat Forge Buy 322 372 7,504 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 14.4 12.1 2.8 2.4 21.0 21.0 1.1 1.0

    Bosch India Neutral 8,639 - 27,126 9,335 10,564 18.3 18.3 394.5 439.3 21.9 19.7 4.4 3.7 20.1 18.7 2.5 2.2

    CEAT Buy 104 140 355 5,057 5,620 5.4 5.6 22.2 31.1 4.7 3.3 0.5 0.5 11.9 16.8 0.3 0.3

    Exide Industries Buy 122 155 10,353 5,812 6,710 16.2 16.5 7.6 8.9 16.1 13.7 3.0 2.5 19.4 19.8 1.4 1.2

    FAG Bearings Accumulate 1,493 1,594 2,482 1,531 1,748 18.8 18.5 118.0 132.8 12.7 11.3 2.7 2.2 24.0 21.9 1.4 1.1

    Hero Motocorp Neutral 2,072 - 41,382 26,106 29,296 15.0 15.2 140.3 148.1 14.8 14.0 7.0 5.4 54.8 43.3 1.3 1.0

    JK Tyre Buy 81 113 334 8,058 9,025 5.4 5.5 24.8 32.2 3.3 2.5 0.4 0.3 11.4 13.2 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 705 802 43,304 35,095 40,213 10.7 10.5 44.6 48.7 15.8 14.5 2.8 2.5 18.8 18.1 0.9 0.8

    Maruti Buy 1,291 1,510 37,310 42,683 48,736 7.1 7.5 86.6 100.6 14.9 12.8 2.1 1.9 15.3 15.5 0.7 0.6

    Motherson Sumi Buy 173 216 6,686 11,167 12,516 9.5 10.0 11.3 14.4 15.2 12.0 3.3 2.7 23.3 24.7 0.7 0.6

    Subros Neutral 31 - 186 1,225 1,393 8.5 8.2 4.2 5.0 7.4 6.3 0.8 0.7 10.3 11.8 0.4 0.3

    Tata Motors Accumulate 301 328 81,110 191,183 213,150 12.6 12.6 38.7 42.9 7.8 7.0 2.7 2.1 39.8 33.9 0.5 0.5

    TVS Motor Buy 39 55 1,862 7,982 8,816 6.4 6.3 5.0 5.6 7.8 7.1 1.4 1.2 18.9 18.2 0.2 0.2

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 794 503 16,818 8,926 10,220 7.7 7.5 18.6 20.9 42.6 37.9 5.8 5.2 14.5 14.5 1.9 1.6BGR Energy Sell 327 274 2,359 4,170 5,396 11.5 10.4 27.2 30.4 12.0 10.8 2.0 1.8 17.3 17.4 1.2 1.1

    BHEL Neutral 225 - 55,120 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 9.6 9.4 1.9 1.7 21.3 18.9 1.1 1.0

    Blue Star Buy 186 221 1,669 3,250 3,551 5.9 5.9 12.4 15.8 14.9 11.8 3.1 2.6 21.2 23.8 0.6 0.5

    Crompton Greaves Buy 128 164 8,234 12,936 14,101 9.6 10.0 10.9 11.7 11.8 10.9 2.0 1.8 18.4 17.3 0.7 0.6

    Jyoti Structures Buy 43 67 355 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 4.0 3.2 0.5 0.4 12.7 13.9 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 56 72 1,432 6,865 7,650 8.5 8.7 9.7 12.1 5.7 4.6 1.1 0.9 27.6 27.0 0.5 0.4

    LMW Buy 1,623 2,609 1,828 2,663 3,130 12.8 12.8 185.0 217.4 8.8 7.5 1.7 1.5 21.2 21.7 0.2 0.2

    Thermax Neutral 430 - 5,126 5,473 5,497 10.1 9.8 30.4 28.7 14.2 15.0 2.7 2.4 20.5 16.9 0.8 0.7

    www.angelbroking.com

    May 04, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

  • 8/2/2019 Market Outlook 040512

    13/18

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Cement

    ACC Neutral 1,205 - 22,631 11,018 12,663 19.9 21.2 70.7 81.2 17.1 14.9 3.0 2.7 18.0 19.0 1.8 1.5

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 146 - 22,467 10,035 11,504 23.5 23.8 10.1 10.6 14.5 13.9 2.8 2.6 18.5 19.4 1.9 1.5

    India Cements Neutral 86 - 2,643 4,423 4,906 18.2 18.8 9.9 12.7 8.7 6.8 0.7 0.7 8.6 10.5 0.9 0.8

    J K Lakshmi Cements Buy 65 79 797 1,880 2,201 19.0 22.6 12.2 16.4 5.4 4.0 0.6 0.5 11.9 14.3 0.6 0.9

    Madras Cements Neutral 145 - 3,449 3,434 3,777 25.5 26.1 14.1 18.1 10.3 8.0 1.5 1.3 15.2 16.9 1.6 1.4

    Shree Cements Neutral 2,808 - 9,781 5,552 6,193 25.7 26.0 130.3 182.0 21.6 15.4 4.5 3.8 19.1 22.3 1.5 1.1

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,413 - 38,720 20,116 22,655 21.3 22.5 82.1 97.5 17.2 14.5 2.7 2.4 16.8 17.4 1.8 1.8Construction

    Ashoka Buildcon Buy 207 302 1,091 2,014 2,294 22.4 22.4 28.4 30.8 7.3 6.7 1.0 0.8 14.1 13.3 2.3 2.6

    Consolidated Co Neutral 15 - 277 2,526 2,792 5.7 6.6 1.8 2.8 8.2 5.3 0.5 0.4 5.6 8.2 0.3 0.3

    Hind. Const. Neutral 21 - 1,244 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (11.4) (26.3) 1.2 1.3 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

    IRB Infra Buy 150 228 4,974 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 10.0 8.8 1.5 1.3 16.3 15.9 2.9 2.7

    ITNL Buy 182 265 3,526 6,619 7,263 23.8 24.2 24.7 26.2 7.4 6.9 1.2 1.0 17.0 15.7 2.1 2.2

    IVRCL Infra Buy 59 79 1,565 5,758 6,860 9.2 9.2 4.7 6.0 12.5 9.7 0.7 0.7 6.0 7.3 0.7 0.7

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 73 104 15,523 16,017 18,359 24.4 23.5 4.2 5.0 17.4 14.6 1.5 1.4 8.8 9.7 2.3 2.0

    Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,200 1,641 73,460 60,258 69,900 12.1 11.5 70.7 76.3 17.0 15.7 2.5 2.2 16.1 15.2 1.4 1.2

    Madhucon Proj Buy 51 84 380 2,503 2,903 10.7 10.7 5.8 6.6 8.9 7.9 0.6 0.5 6.6 7.0 0.7 0.7

    Nagarjuna Const. Buy 44 76 1,123 5,790 7,022 9.2 9.5 3.5 5.4 12.6 8.1 0.5 0.5 3.7 5.6 0.8 0.8

    Patel Engg. Neutral 104 - 723 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 7.4 7.1 0.5 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.1 1.1

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 51 - 1,697 10,592 12,193 8.4 8.4 2.9 4.6 17.6 11.2 0.5 0.5 3.9 3.1 0.6 0.6

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 137 199 2,063 2,989 3,315 10.6 10.6 10.2 11.3 13.5 12.2 2.1 1.8 17.6 16.3 0.9 0.8

    Simplex Infra Buy 230 316 1,136 6,732 7,902 9.3 9.6 27.2 35.1 8.4 6.5 0.9 0.8 11.0 12.6 0.5 0.4

    FinancialsAllahabad Bank Accumulate 171 193 8,568 7,700 8,677 3.4 3.3 37.4 40.9 4.6 4.2 0.8 0.7 19.0 17.0 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 116 - 6,488 5,284 5,998 3.3 3.2 23.6 27.0 4.9 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.5 16.7 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,058 1,587 43,734 16,157 19,557 3.2 3.2 116.4 139.1 9.1 7.6 1.7 1.4 20.0 20.3 - -

    Bank of Baroda Buy 731 943 28,618 16,013 18,849 2.7 2.7 131.4 153.3 5.6 4.8 1.0 0.9 19.7 19.2 - -

    Bank of India Accumulate 334 386 19,141 13,558 15,551 2.5 2.4 54.9 63.1 6.1 5.3 1.0 0.9 16.8 16.9 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Buy 53 62 3,122 3,665 4,107 3.5 3.5 10.7 13.5 5.0 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.8 17.5 - -

    Canara Bank Buy 429 532 19,022 12,120 14,009 2.2 2.2 85.7 95.4 5.0 4.5 0.8 0.7 17.2 16.7 - -

    Central Bank Reduce 95 92 7,019 6,860 7,934 2.4 2.4 13.1 19.9 7.3 4.8 0.9 0.8 10.5 13.8 - -

    www.angelbroking.com

    May 04, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

  • 8/2/2019 Market Outlook 040512

    14/18

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Financials

    Corporation Bank Buy 400 508 5,927 5,361 5,995 2.2 2.1 108.3 111.5 3.7 3.6 0.7 0.6 17.9 16.2 - -

    Dena Bank Buy 92 118 3,219 3,003 3,366 3.0 2.9 23.2 25.6 4.0 3.6 0.7 0.6 18.0 16.9 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 415 - 7,087 2,766 3,163 3.4 3.3 49.5 57.2 8.4 7.2 1.1 1.0 14.0 14.5 - -

    HDFC Neutral 667 - 98,496 7,244 8,625 3.3 3.3 31.2 37.2 21.4 17.9 4.2 3.7 34.2 31.3 - -

    HDFC Bank Neutral 553 - 129,748 21,831 27,477 4.3 4.3 28.3 35.5 19.5 15.6 3.8 3.2 20.8 22.1 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 858 1,183 98,555 22,209 26,512 2.8 2.8 67.9 81.1 12.6 10.6 1.5 1.4 14.7 16.0 - -

    IDBI Bank Buy 98 117 9,679 8,004 9,589 1.9 2.0 19.9 23.9 5.0 4.1 0.7 0.6 13.8 14.9 - -Indian Bank Accumulate 217 240 9,307 6,469 7,244 3.5 3.3 45.5 48.8 4.8 4.4 0.9 0.7 19.6 18.2 - -

    IOB Buy 86 104 6,830 7,328 8,264 2.5 2.5 15.9 21.1 5.4 4.1 0.6 0.5 12.7 13.9 - -

    J & K Bank Neutral 907 - 4,397 2,420 2,792 3.5 3.6 178.0 195.8 5.1 4.6 0.9 0.8 19.5 18.6 - -

    LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 255 286 12,125 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 10.5 8.4 2.0 1.7 20.1 21.4 - -

    Oriental Bank Buy 232 285 6,760 6,431 7,315 2.7 2.6 54.4 63.8 4.3 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.6 14.3 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 844 1,138 26,745 20,708 24,094 3.5 3.5 156.3 178.7 5.4 4.7 1.0 0.8 19.7 18.5 - -

    South Ind.Bank Neutral 24 - 2,687 1,368 1,557 2.8 2.7 3.7 3.9 6.5 6.0 1.2 1.0 19.1 17.7 - -

    St Bk of India Buy 2,085 2,593 139,926 69,568 81,445 3.7 3.7 220.9 269.8 9.4 7.7 1.6 1.3 18.9 19.1 - -

    Syndicate Bank Buy 103 128 6,221 7,069 7,961 3.1 3.0 23.3 27.5 4.5 3.8 0.7 0.6 17.4 17.2 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 76 - 4,775 5,727 6,443 2.5 2.5 17.8 18.8 4.3 4.1 0.8 0.8 17.8 16.2 - -

    Union Bank Buy 222 266 11,645 10,352 11,988 2.9 2.9 40.7 49.5 5.5 4.5 0.9 0.7 16.8 17.4 - -

    United Bank Buy 66 87 2,365 3,666 4,128 2.9 2.9 18.4 21.7 3.6 3.0 0.6 0.5 15.9 16.0 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 57 - 2,689 2,668 3,001 2.2 2.2 10.1 11.7 5.6 4.9 0.8 0.7 13.2 13.7 - -

    Yes Bank Buy 338 470 11,926 3,209 4,144 2.7 2.8 33.9 41.5 10.0 8.1 2.1 1.7 23.1 23.3 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 3,601 - 34,540 10,961 12,773 16.3 16.3 120.3 142.5 29.9 25.3 9.9 7.9 36.9 34.7 3.0 2.6Britannia Buy 557 650 6,652 5,906 6,856 6.9 7.0 22.3 28.3 24.9 19.7 10.2 7.6 45.2 44.1 1.1 1.0

    Colgate Neutral 1,127 - 15,329 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 37.7 42.6 29.9 26.5 35.6 28.8 129.4 120.1 5.0 4.4

    Dabur India Accumulate 106 112 18,475 6,010 6,929 17.4 17.6 4.4 5.2 24.0 20.4 9.1 7.3 41.4 42.1 3.1 2.7

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,767 - 11,638 3,111 2,687 16.9 15.8 100.6 86.1 27.5 32.2 8.3 10.2 33.3 33.8 3.4 3.9

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 567 - 19,286 5,904 6,905 17.8 18.1 22.6 26.9 25.1 21.0 6.9 5.6 29.9 36.3 3.4 3.0

    HUL Neutral 434 - 93,723 25,546 29,031 15.2 15.3 14.1 16.1 30.8 26.9 23.4 29.0 84.3 76.7 3.5 3.1

    ITC Neutral 242 - 189,245 28,955 33,595 35.9 35.7 9.2 10.5 26.4 23.1 8.4 7.0 34.8 33.1 6.2 5.4

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    May 04, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

  • 8/2/2019 Market Outlook 040512

    15/18

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    FMCG

    Marico Neutral 179 - 11,010 4,669 5,467 13.0 12.9 6.8 8.2 26.5 21.9 7.2 5.6 30.5 28.8 2.4 2.0

    Nestle* Neutral 4,611 - 44,460 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 119.3 147.9 38.7 31.2 23.7 16.1 73.0 61.6 5.1 4.2

    Tata Global Buy 117 136 7,263 7,011 7,712 9.7 10.0 6.0 7.1 19.8 16.5 1.8 1.7 8.9 10.2 0.9 0.8

    IT

    HCL Tech Accumulate 514 560 35,608 22,792 25,743 17.4 17.4 37.8 43.0 13.6 12.0 3.0 2.5 22.3 21.3 1.5 1.3

    Hexaware Neutral 130 - 3,833 1,821 2,105 19.0 18.6 9.8 10.7 13.2 12.1 3.1 2.7 23.7 22.5 1.8 1.5

    Infosys Accumulate 2,484 2,792 142,659 37,615 42,491 31.1 30.6 158.5 174.5 15.7 14.2 3.5 3.0 22.5 20.8 3.1 2.6Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 162 177 1,809 1,758 1,972 17.0 16.6 16.8 18.6 9.7 8.7 1.3 1.2 13.6 13.2 0.7 0.5

    KPIT Cummins Neutral 101 - 1,792 2,042 2,139 15.2 14.9 9.6 10.9 10.5 9.3 1.8 1.5 19.2 18.0 0.8 0.7

    Mahindra Satyam Buy 77 89 9,002 7,142 8,042 15.4 15.0 7.7 8.3 10.0 9.3 1.4 1.2 13.8 13.0 0.9 0.7

    Mindtree Neutral 584 - 2,369 2,172 2,450 16.1 15.5 53.9 58.5 10.8 10.0 2.0 1.7 18.9 17.0 0.9 0.7

    Mphasis Accumulate 379 433 7,967 5,904 6,320 18.3 17.9 38.7 41.2 9.8 9.2 1.5 1.3 14.9 13.7 0.9 0.7

    NIIT Buy 44 61 722 1,105 1,200 16.4 16.9 7.5 9.2 5.8 4.8 1.0 0.9 17.6 19.0 0.4 0.2

    Persistent Neutral 365 - 1,460 1,109 1,224 23.3 22.4 37.2 40.1 9.8 9.1 1.5 1.3 15.4 14.5 1.0 0.8

    TCS Neutral 1,280 - 250,593 57,189 66,329 29.3 28.7 63.2 70.9 20.3 18.1 6.2 5.0 30.5 27.7 4.1 3.5

    Tech Mahindra Accumulate 689 750 8,789 6,030 6,511 16.3 15.7 81.1 87.0 8.5 7.9 1.7 1.4 20.1 18.0 1.4 1.2

    Wipro Neutral 412 - 101,375 41,918 46,879 19.4 19.9 25.1 28.7 16.5 14.4 3.1 2.6 18.6 18.3 2.1 1.7

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 208 274 3,812 1,656 1,869 26.0 26.8 14.0 16.1 14.9 12.9 3.4 2.9 24.8 24.1 2.2 1.9

    HT Media Buy 123 170 2,879 2,255 2,555 17.8 18.3 10.0 12.0 12.3 10.2 1.7 1.5 14.7 15.4 1.0 0.9

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 99 137 3,118 1,499 1,642 27.4 28.8 7.6 9.1 12.9 10.9 4.3 3.9 34.6 37.7 2.0 1.9

    PVR Neutral 148 - 382 625 732 17.4 16.9 12.4 15.8 11.9 9.4 1.9 2.0 8.5 9.9 0.8 0.7

    Sun TV Network Neutral 293 - 11,549 2,135 2,458 75.2 74.4 20.9 24.0 14.0 12.2 3.3 2.8 26.0 25.1 4.4 3.5Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 432 - 9,180 9,232 13,557 30.8 31.1 48.0 58.6 9.0 7.4 1.2 1.0 14.5 7.5 3.1 2.2

    Coal India Neutral 338 - 213,177 65,654 71,756 26.8 27.3 24.0 26.3 14.1 12.8 3.8 3.2 30.4 27.0 2.3 1.9

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 20 27 694 1,984 2,074 10.6 12.0 2.7 3.3 7.5 6.1 0.4 0.2 5.2 6.2 0.5 0.4

    Hind. Zinc Accumulate 127 139 53,471 13,043 14,223 51.8 52.8 14.8 16.6 8.6 7.6 1.7 1.4 21.2 19.9 2.4 1.8

    Hindalco Accumulate 119 136 22,754 84,638 88,753 9.6 10.5 15.2 17.3 7.8 6.9 0.7 0.6 8.7 9.2 0.5 0.5

    JSW Steel Neutral 680 - 15,173 39,161 43,958 17.8 17.9 72.2 89.5 9.4 7.6 0.8 0.8 10.1 11.4 0.6 0.6

    MOIL Neutral 255 - 4,276 979 1,061 45.7 46.8 24.5 26.6 10.4 9.6 1.6 1.5 16.1 15.8 2.2 1.9

    Monnet Ispat Buy 474 585 3,050 2,986 3,908 22.1 28.9 50.5 83.4 9.4 5.7 1.2 1.0 13.5 19.2 1.9 1.3

    www.angelbroking.com

    May 04, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

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    May 04, 2012Market Outlook