market outlook 24th january 2012

8/3/2019 Market Outlook 24th January 2012

1/12

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539 1

Market OutlookIndia Research

January 24, 2012

Dealers DiaryThe markets are expected to open in the green following positive openingacross Asian markets, as optimism that European policy makers are making

progress to tame the regions debt crisis boosted the earnings outlook forAsian exporters.

US stocks put in a lackluster performance on Monday. The major averagesfinished the day near the unchanged mark, consolidating gains posted lastweek. European stocks finished the first day of the new trading week with amodest increase. European finance ministers balked at putting up more publicmoney for Greece, calling on bondholders to provide greater debt relief inorder to point the way out of the two-year-old debt crisis.

Indian shares moved sideways before ending on a flat note on Monday, asinvestors reacted to mixed quarterly results and lackluster global cues amidapprehensions over the outcome of Greece's talks with private creditors.Investors would be closely watching the RBIs monetary policy review due

today. We expect the RBI to maintain status quo on Repo and CRR.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 16,732 / 5,042 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 16,804 16,856 / 5,063 5,081 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

16,732 / 5,042 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

16,679 16,607 / 5,004 5,025 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 16,607 16,679 16,732 16,804 16,856

NIFTY 5,004 5,025 5,042 5,063 5,081

News Analysis RBI Monetary Policy Preview KEC International secures orders worth `371cr IVRCL bags orders worth `700cr 3QFY2012 Result Reviews L&T, GAIL, Sterlite Inds, Maruti Suzuki, Idea,

Colgate, Shree Cement, Federal Bank, DB Corp, LMW, KPIT, Ashoka Buildcon

3QFY2012 Result Previews Cairn India, Lupin, Yes BankRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (January 20, 2012)

` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 3,547 2,550 997 7,091 7,091

MFs 572 905 (333) (1,063) (1,063)

FII Derivatives (January 23, 2012)

` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 3,254 2,930 323 17,745

Stock Futures 6,516 6,439 76 30,346

Gainers / Losers

Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)JSW ENERGY 47 9.3 ADANI PORTS 147(5.8)

Jain Irrigation 103 6.6 Sterlite Inds 108 (5.4)

Suzlon Energy 26 5.9 United Spirits 594 (5.0)

Maruti Suzuki 1,163 5.8 United Brew 420 (4.9)

Gujarat Fluo 449 5.4 Hindalco Inds 137 (4.3)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex 0.1 12.7 16,752

Nifty (0.1) (2.4) 5,046MID CAP 0.1 3.1 5,683

SMALL CAP 0.3 16.7 6,294

BSE HC (0.1) (6.4) 6,162

BSE PSU (0.2) (10.9) 7,216

BANKEX 0.2 23.0 10,935

AUTO 0.5 43.2 8,862

METAL (2.1) (230.7) 10,967

OIL & GAS (1.7) (138.6) 8,186

BSE IT 0.4 20.9 5,521

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones (0.1) (11.7) 12,709

NASDAQ (0.1) (2.5) 2,784

FTSE 0.9 54.0 5,783

Nikkei (0.0) (0.5) 8,766

Hang Seng 0.8 167.4 20,110

Straits Times 1.4 38.2 2,849

Shanghai Com 1.0 23.0 2,319

Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Infosys 1.0 0.5 $52.8

Wipro (0.9) (0.1) $10.8

ICICI Bank 1.5 0.5 $34.6

HDFC Bank 1.2 0.4 $30.3

Advances / Declines BSE NSE Advances 1,451

Declines 1,334 737

Unchanged 129 65

Volumes (` cr)BSE 2,160

NSE 10,155


2/12

MarketOutlook|IndiaResearch

January 24, 2012 2

RBI Monetary Policy Preview Reversal of rate cycle soon, butnot just yetIn light of the considerable economic slowdown witnessed over the past year, the

RBIs policy tone turned more dovish in the last monetary policy review. However,

the RBI has continually maintained that any easing of monetary stance will only

follow a noteworthy decline in inflation levels. Positively, WPI figures, led by a

substantial drop in food inflation, fell to a two-year low of 7.5% for December

2011. However, manufacturing products inflation continued to be relatively high

at 7.4% (average of 6.3% over the past two years), which is above the RBIs

comfort levels. Also, considering the sequentially improved IIP (5.9% for

November 2011 compared to contraction of 5.5% in October 2011) and the PMI

data (54.2 for December 2011 compared to 51.0 for November 2011), the RBI

may choose to maintain the repo rate in the upcoming monetary policy, rather

than cutting it right away.

However, having said that, the manufacturing inflation, which came in higher

than the primary inflation for December, possibly indicates that a large part of

pass-through is already done with. Hence, in-line with food inflation, we expect

manufacturing inflation to start cooling off as well in the coming few months,

eventually leading to policy rate cuts by the RBI. Further, with GDP growth widely

expected to be below 7% for FY2012, growth concerns are likely to increasingly

influence the RBIs policy rate stance going forward.

Hence, while we do not expect any rate cuts just yet, we do see a meaningful case

for the RBI to start with the rate cut cycle soon in order to get growth back on

track, provided inflation levels (particularly the core inflation levels) further

moderate on expected lines.

Exhibit 1:Primary inflation is plummeting

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11

Primary Articles Fuel & Power Manufactured Products

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:Avg. LAF borrowings above RBIs comfort levels

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

1,000

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

(` bn)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Specifically for the upcoming monetary policy, of the 20 economists surveyed by

Bloomberg, all expect a status quo on key policy rates. However, five of them

expect a CRR cut (of which two expect a 25bp cut while three expect a 50bp cut).

The RBI has been resorting to open market operations (OMO) for easing liquidity

in the system (~`73,000cr infused into the system over the past two months),

however average LAF borrowing at `1,17,700cr (over the past two months) is still


3/12


January 24, 2012 3

way above the RBIs comfort zone of +-1% of NDTL. With liquidity crunch

persisting in the system and OMO not reaping the desired benefits, chances of a

CRR cut in the monetary policy on January 24, 2011 cannot be ruled out,

in our view.

To summarize, for the upcoming policy, we expect the RBI to maintain status quoon repo and CRR. Although we believe the RBI will continue with OMOs forliquidity infusion, chances of a CRR cut in the monetarily policy on January 24,2011, cannot be ruled out.

KEC International secures orders worth `371crKEC International (KEC) has secured orders totaling `371cr for the construction of

400kV transmission lines in India. The orders are received from PGCIL (`258cr)and Haldia Energy Limited, a subsidiary of CESC Ltd. (`113cr). The completion

period of these projects ranges from 1826 months. The order book stands

healthy at ~`9,700cr (2.1x FY2011 revenue).

In a short span of time, KEC has registered strong order wins (`1,970cr), from

across the globe as well as various businesses verticals. Amidst strong order wins,

the stock has witnessed a substantial rally in the past few days, gaining ~50%.

We believe the latent potential of the company (globally diversified model)

coupled with optimism surrounding the macro environment has clearly factored

into the stock. At the CMP of `53, the stock trades at reasonable valuations of

6.0x FY2013E EPS and further upside seems limited, in our view. Hence,we recommend Neutral on the stock.

IVRCL bags orders worth `700crIVRCL has bagged orders aggregating to `700cr across the water and buildings

segments. The water and irrigation division bagged orders worth `595.5cr and

the buildings division received orders of `106.0cr. With these orders, IVRCLs

order book stands at ~`26,932cr (4.8x FY2011 revenue). We have valued IVRCL

on an SOTP basis. The companys core construction business is valued at P/E of

7x FY2013E EPS of 4.6 (`32.4/share), whereas its stake in subsidiaries IVR Prime

(`15.5/share) and Hindustan Dorr-Oliver (`3.8/share) has been valued on mcap

basis, post assigning a 20% holding company discount.

At the CMP of `45, the stock is trading at 9.8x FY2013E EPS and 0.6x FY2013E

P/BV on a standalone basis. Therefore, on the back of the companys robustorder book-to-sales ratio (4.8x FY2011 revenue) and attractive valuations,we recommend Accumulate on the stock with a target price of `52.


4/12


January 24, 2012 4

3QFY2012 Result ReviewsL&TLarsen and Toubro (L&T) posted good set of numbers for 3QFY2012, which were

above our and street expectations mainly on account of robust top-line growth

and higher other income. L&T reported decent top-line growth of 22.7% yoy to

`13,999cr (`11,413cr), above our estimates of 6.6% growth, mainly on account

of pick-up in the E&C segment. We note that this performance was in spite of

high base created in 3QFY2011 (L&T reported yoy top-line growth ~40.5%). On

the EBITDA front, performance was below our expectations mainly on account of

higher-than-anticipated MTM forex losses. L&T reported higher than anticipated

other income, owing to higher income on its investments and dividend income

from subsidiaries. Therefore, the bottom line came in at `991.6cr (14.4% above

our estimates).

As of 3QFY2012, L&Ts order backlog stands at `1,45,768cr (`1,14,882cr),

26.9% yoy growth, which is mainly on account of order inflow being higher than

execution on absolute terms. Order inflow for the quarter grew by stunning 28.2%

to `17,129cr (`13,366cr) covering some of the lost ground in 1HFY2012. For

9MFY2012, the order inflow stands at flat `49,415cr (`49,456).

During the last quarter, management had significantly cut its order inflow

guidance for FY2012, mainly to factor in the general slowdown faced by the

sector, but this time they have refrained from the same and maintained their

revised guidance (yoy 5% growth on order inflow and 25% on revenue front for

FY2012), which we believe factors in aggressive run rate for 4QFY2012 (yoy

growth of 13.3% on order inflow and 32.0% on revenue front for 4QFY2012).

We expect management to miss the guidance and pencil in 5% yoy de-growth in

order inflow and 22.5% yoy growth in revenues for FY2012.

We believe L&T is best placed to benefit from the gradual recovery in the capexcycle, given its diverse exposure to sectors, strong balance sheet and cash flowgeneration as compared to peers. We maintain L&T as our top pick in the sectorand maintain Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `1,466.

GAILGAILs 3QFY2012 top line came above our estimate, while its bottom line was in-

line with our estimate. The companys top line grew by robust 34.6% yoy to

`11,260cr, above our estimate of `9,587cr, mainly due to strong growth in the

natural gas trading, petrochemical and LPG segments. The companys fuel

subsidy burden increased 28.0% yoy to `536cr in 3QFY2012. Gross revenue of

the natural gas trading, petrochemical and LPG segments grew by 35.5%, 53.7%

and 32.6% yoy to `9,150cr, `878cr and `965cr, respectively. GAILs pipeline

throughput stood flat yoy to 119mmscmd; gas trading volume increased 1.9%

yoy to 85mmscmd from 83mmscmd and petrochemical sales volume increased40.0% yoy to 113kt in 3QFY2012. EBIT of the natural gas trading, petrochemical

and LPG segments grew by 56.9%, 98.3% and 103.6% yoy to `323cr, `387cr

and `305cr, respectively. However, EBIT of the natural gas transmission and LPG


5/12


January 24, 2012 5

transmission segments decreased by 6.7% and 8.2% yoy to `621cr and `78cr,

respectively. Consequently, GAILs EBITDA increased by 30.9% yoy to `1,745cr in

3QFY2012. However, EBITDA margin contracted by 44bp yoy to 15.5%. Other

income decreased 88.8% yoy to`

21cr on account of lower cash balance. Taxrate increased to 32.7% in 3QFY2012 compared to 28.1% in 3QFY2011.

Consequently, net profit grew by 7.7% yoy to `1,042cr, slightly above our

estimate of `1,018cr. The company capitalized its forex loss of `105cr in

3QFY2012. Consequently, there was no impact in the income statement due to

foreign exchange fluctuation. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock,while we keep our target price under review.

Sterlite IndustriesSterlite Industries (Sterlite) results were above our expectations. Net salesincreased by 23.5% yoy to `10,246,cr above our estimate of `8,798r. Net

sales growth was driven by higher zinc sales volumes from the zinc segment

and power segment. Revenue of the zinc and power segments grew by 36.9%

and 346.7% yoy to `3,755cr and `591cr, respectively. Sterlites EBITDA grew

by 17.2% yoy to `2,318cr. EBIT of the copper and power segments grew by

67.8% and 178.3% yoy, respectively, to `326cr and `53cr, respectively.

However, the aluminium segment reported an EBIT loss of `23cr compared to

EBIT of `119cr in 3QFY2011. Aluminium cost of production at Balco

increased by 22.0% yoy to `98,234/tonne on account of increased prices of

alumina and coal. Sterlites associate, Vedanta Aluminium also reported loss

of `893cr in 3QFY2012 (Sterlites share of loss - `264cr) compared to loss of`347cr in 3QFY2011. Other income grew by 83.6% yoy to `877cr,

significantly above our estimate. The company reported exceptional items

related to forex loss of `425cr in 3QFY2012 compared to `29cr in

3QFY2011. Hence, adjusted net profit increased by 12.1% yoy to `1,260cr in

3QFY2012, above our estimate of `771cr. Reported net profit decreased by

16.4% yoy to `920cr.

Balco is now nearing regulatory approvals for its 211mn tonne coal block.

Approval of coal block by the regulatory authorities could potentially make

Balcos operations profitable.

We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock, while we keep our targetprice under review.

Maruti SuzukiMaruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported a mixed set of results for 3QFY2012, with the

top line and bottom line coming in ahead of our estimates; however, the

companys operating margin continued to remain under pressure, largely on

account of unfavorable currency movement. The top line registered a 17%yoy (flat qoq) decline to `7,882cr, largely due to a 27.6% yoy (down 5.1%

qoq) decline in volumes. Volume performance during the quarter was

impacted on account of labor strike at Manesar plant and due to sluggish


6/12


January 24, 2012 6

demand environment in domestic markets. Average net realization, however,

improved by strong 14.1% yoy (7.1% qoq), led by better product mix, lower

level of blended discounts and price increases carried out during the quarter.

EBITDA margin witnessed a steep 421bp yoy (102bp qoq) contraction andstood at 5.3% due to lower volumes, mark-to-market (MTM) loss on

commodity hedges and other expenditure. Higher other expenditure was on

account of Yen appreciation versus the INR (MTM loss on royalty payments of

~`78cr). As a result, net profit fell substantially by 63.6% yoy (14.5% qoq)

to `206cr. However, it was ahead of our estimates, led by higher other

income and lower tax rate. At `1,163, the stock is trading at 14.5x FY2013E

earnings. The stock rating is currently under review.

IdeaFor 3QFY2012, Idea Cellular (Idea) reported a good set of results. Revenue came

in at `5,031cr, up 8.9% qoq, on the back of 1.4% qoq growth in ARPM to

`0.433/min and subscriber growth of 6.2% qoq with end-of-period (EOP)

subscriber base standing at 106.4mn. MOU also grew by 1.4% qoq to 369min in

3QFY2012 from 364min in 2QFY2012. VAS share in revenue grew to 13.7%

from 13.2% in 2QFY2012. All this led to a 2.6% qoq jump in ARPU to

`159/month. EBITDA margin increased by 104bp qoq to 26.7%. PAT came in at

`201cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

ColgateColgate reported its 3QFY2012 results yesterday. The companys top line grew by

20% yoy to `670cr, 4.2% above our estimates. Growth was driven by price hikes.

Earnings for the quarter grew by robust 74% to `116cr on account of low base

(same quarter last year, the company reported a decline in profit). Operating

margin expanded by 591bp yoy on account of a steep cut in ad spends (down by

555bp yoy) and cut in staff costs (down by 140bp yoy). The companys operating

margin came in at 19.3%, against our estimate of 13.4%. We maintain ourNeutral rating on the stock.

Shree CementsShree Cements (SRCM) 3QFY2012 top line rose by 61% yoy during the quarter

to `1,259cr. The cement business posted 44.9% yoy growth in net sales to

`1,081cr on account of substantial growth in dispatches and realizations. The

power divisions revenue more than quadrupled to `178cr on a low base on

account of higher volumes. OPM rose by 695bp to 26.5% on account of better

cement realization. SRCMs depreciation rose by 78.9% yoy to `235cr on account

of the commissioning of the new 150MW power plant. The companys bottom

line rose by 115% yoy to `59cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.


7/12


January 24, 2012 7

Federal BankFor 3QFY2012, Federal Bank reported 41.1% yoy (5.6% qoq) growth in its net

profit to `202cr, in-line with our estimates. While the bank witnessed sequential

healthy growth in its operating income (12.6% qoq), higher provisioning expenses

(up by 59.6% qoq) dented profitability growth to 5.6% qoq.

The banks asset quality remained under pressure during 3QFY2012 as well, with

absolute gross and net NPAs rising by 9.1% and 24.5% sequentially, respectively.

Gross NPA ratio deteriorated by 36bp qoq to 4.0%, while net NPA ratio

deteriorated by 16bp to 0.7%

At the CMP, the stock is trading at valuations of 1.0x FY2013E ABV. Consideringthe recent deregulation of NRE FD rates (NRE deposits comprise ~12% of its totaldeposits) and that mid-size PSU banks with similar earnings outlook are tradingat valuations of 0.5-0.7x,we remain Neutral on the stock.

DB CorpFor 3QFY2012, DB Corps top line grew by 13.6% yoy and 11.8% qoq to `396cr.

Consolidated ad revenue for the quarter grew by 9% yoy to `306cr. Circulation

revenue grew by impressive 17% yoy and 5.8% qoq on account of new edition

launches in Maharashtra. The company reported a weak set of numbers on the

earnings front, primarily on account pre-operative expenses of `2cr and

operating losses on four editions in Maharashtra and two additions in Jharkhand.

The company reported a 29% yoy decline and 39% qoq growth in its recurring

earnings. Recurring PAT for the quarter stood at `56cr. Operating margin during

3QFY2012 fell steeply by 724bp yoy, though it expanded by 394bp qoq on

account of new edition losses as well as forex losses. The stock is under review.

LMWLakshmi Machine Works Limited (LMW) announced its 3QFY2012 numbers. Net

sales increased by 9.6% yoy to `538cr (`491cr). The textile machinery segmentregistered 11% yoy growth to `471cr (`425cr), while the other segments

managed a 3.1% yoy increase to `72 (`70cr). EBITDA declined by 9.1% yoy to

`69cr (`76cr), largely due to margin compression. EBITDA margin declined by

263bp yoy to 12.8% (15.4%), mainly due to higher raw-material cost, which

increased to 63% of net sales vs. 58.2% in 3QFY2012. PAT declined by 13.5%

yoy to `40cr (`46cr), while margin declined by 197bp yoy to 7.4% (9.3%). We willbe coming out with a detailed report post management interaction. We continueto maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `2,780.


8/12


January 24, 2012 8

KPITKPIT Cummins Infosystems (KPIT) reported better-than-expected 3QFY2012

results. Dollar revenue came in at US$73.4mn, up 4.3% qoq. In INR terms,

revenue came in at `379cr, up 16.6% qoq. EBITDA and EBIT margin of the

company improved by 167bp and 171bp qoq to 15.3% and 11.8%, respectively,

aided by ~300bp qoq due to INR depreciation. PAT stood at `41cr. The company

has revised its organic growth guidance of FY2012 USD revenue to 37-38% yoy

from 25-29% yoy given previously. The stock is currently under review. We will bereleasing a detailed result update shortly.

Ashoka BuildconFor 3QFY2012, Ashoka Buildcon (ABL) reported a good set of numbers,in-line with our estimates. ABLs top line witnessed robust growth of 49.3% to

`352.9cr (`236.4cr), marginally lower than our estimate of `360.6cr. ABLs

margins came at 19.6% (22.8%), lower than our estimate of 21.5%. On the

earnings front as well, ABL reported decent growth of 17.5% to `19.5cr (`16.6cr),

in-line with our estimate of `21.0cr. Order book as of 3QFY2012 stood at

`3,912cr. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with targetprice of `245.

3QFY2012 Result Previews

Cairn IndiaCairn India is slated to report its results. The companys net sales are expected to

decrease by 5.8% yoy to `2,917cr. However, its operating margin is expected to

decline by 344bp yoy to 81.0%. Bottom line is expected to increase by 0.6% yoy

to `2,023cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

LupinLupin is expected to announce its 3QFY2012 results. For the quarter, we expect

the company to post a 39.0% yoy growth in its top-line to `1,755cr. The

company's OPM is expected to expand by 10bp yoy during the period to 19.7%.

Earnings for the quarter are expected to register 62.9% yoy growth to `261cr. Wemaintain Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `593.

Yes BankYes Bank is slated to announce its 3QFY2012 results. We expect the bank to

report healthy NII growth of 26.6% yoy on the back of continuance of healthybalance sheet growth coupled with sequentially stable NIM. Non-interest income

is expected to rise at healthy 24.4% yoy. Cost-to-income ratio is likely to

deteriorate by~150bp qoq as well as on a yoy basis to 37.2%. Pre-provision


9/12


January 24, 2012 9

profit is expected to register reasonable growth of 23.1% yoy, while net profit is

expected to increase by nearly similar (22.2% yoy) quantum at `234cr. At the

CMP, the stock is trading at 1.8x FY2013E ABV. We value the stock at 2.1x

FY2013 ABV. Post the recent run-up in the stock, we recommend an Accumulaterating on the stock with a target price of `330.

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimates

Cairn India Ltd - Consolidated (24/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 3,090 3,096 (0) 2,652 17

EBITDA 2,559 2,542 1 2,065 24

EBITDA margin (%) 82.8 82.1 77.9Net profit 2,121 2,010 6 763 178

Lupin Ltd - Consolidated (24/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,739 1,467 19 1,742 (0)

EBITDA 339 297 14 404 (16)

EBITDA margin (%) 19.5 20.3 23.2

Net profit 241 224 8 267 (10)

Yes Bank Ltd (24/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net profit 238 191 24 235 1

Grasim Industries Ltd - Consolidated (24/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,004 5,385 11 5,649 6

EBITDA 1,315 1,197 10 1,028 28

EBITDA margin (%) 21.9 22.2 18.2Net profit 602 502 20 418 44

Bank of Baroda Ltd (25/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,197 1,069 12 1,166 3

Rural Electrification Ltd (25/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net profit 721 664 9 623 16


10/12


January 24, 2012 10

Sesa Goa Ltd - Consolidated (25/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,965 2,237 (12) 784 151

EBITDA 884 1,231 (28) 260 240

EBITDA margin (%) 45.0 55.0 33.2

Net profit 644 1,065 (40) 1 50224

Tata Global Beverages Ltd - Consolidated (25/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,787 1,602 12 1,612 11

EBITDA 130 184 (29) 135 (4)

EBITDA margin (%) 7.3 11.5 8.4

Net profit 96 72 34 77 25

Union Bank of India Ltd (25/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net profit 539 580 (7) 353 53

Bank of India Ltd (27/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net profit 608 653 (7) 491 24

Canara Bank Ltd (27/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net profit 958 1,106 (13) 852 12

NTPC Ltd (27/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 16,103 13,421 20 15,378 5

EBITDA 3,494 4,225 (17) 3,560 (2)

EBITDA margin (%) 21.7 31.5 23.2

Net profit 2,308 2,371 (3) 2,424 (5)

NHPC Ltd (27/01/2012)Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 912 709 29 1,831 (50)

EBITDA 454 460 (1) 1,451 (69)

EBITDA margin (%) 49.8 64.9 79.3

Net profit 329 301 9 966 (66)


11/12


January 24, 2012 11

Economic and Political News

RBI warns of persistent inflation, weaker growth Row over import duty on power equipment, PM action sought CEC team visits mining areas in Bellary districtCorporate News

RIL assures SC of paying VAT on UP gas sale from Feb 1 MMTC disinvestment may not happen in immediate future NTPC expects JV for Bangla project by month-endSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

Results Calendar

24/01/2012 Cairn India, Grasim Inds, Indraprasth Gas, Godawari Ispat, CEAT

25/01/2012 Bank of Baroda, Sesa Goa, Rural Elec.Corp., Union Bank, IRB Infra, Tata Global, Tata Comm, Vijaya Bank

27/01/2012 NTPC, BHEL, NHPC, Canara Bank, Bank of India, Petronet LNG, Blue Star, Jyoti Structures

28/01/2012 J & K Bank, Divi's Lab., IOB

30/01/2012NMDC, LIC Housing Fin., Indian Bank, Oriental Bank, Allahabad Bank, United Phosphorus, Corporation Bank, IndiabullsFin., Sadbhav Engg., Taj GVK, PVR


12/12


January 24 2012 12

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment

decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make

such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies

referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and

risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this

document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliablesources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as thisdocument is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any wayresponsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report .Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. WhileAngel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,

redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or

other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in

the past.

Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in

connection with the use of this information.

Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may haveinvestment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

market outlook 24th january 2012

Documents