market outlook
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TRANSCRIPT
AGC – CLC Working WeekendWill Kempton, CEO
January 25, 2012
Market Outlook State Transportation Program
History of Funding
• Proposition 111 (1990)o Last gas tax increase
• Proposition 108 (1990)o $1 billion bond for rail capital expenditures
• Proposition 116 (1990)o $1.99 billion bond for passenger and commuter rail
• Proposition 42 (2002)o Gasoline sales tax used for transportation purposes
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History of Funding contd.• Traffic Congestion Relief Act (2000)
o $4.91 billion for specific projects• Proposition 1B (2006)
o $19.93 billion bonds for transportation projects• Proposition 1A (2008)
o $9.95 billion for High-Speed Rail• ARRA (2009)
o $48.1 billion for transportation infrastructure
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SB 45 (1997)
• Changed how projects were programmed into the State Transportation Improvement Program(STIP)
• Required 75% of funds go to the Regional Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP)
• Expanded regional control and accountability
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Transportation Revenue Sources
50%50%
1990 - $8 billion
LocalState & Federal
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Transportation Revenue Sources
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74%
15%
11%
2011 – $305 billion
LocalState Federal
* 2011 SCAG Revenue Model
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Statewide Transportation System Needs Assessment 2011
“California’s transportation system is in jeopardy. Underfunding – decade after decade – has led to the decay of one of the State’s greatest assets.”
- California Transportation Commission 2011
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Neglected Improvements are Staggering
California’s unfundedneeds are
$295 billionthrough 2021.
- California Transportation Commission Statewide Transportation Needs Assessment 2011
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Caltrans Maintenance Needs are Growing
10- Legislative Analyst’s Office, 2011
Infrastructure Report Card
CALIFORNIA• Pavement:
o 58% of California’s Roadways Require Rehabilitation or Pavement Maintenance
• Bridges:o 20% Require Major Maintenance or Preventative
Worko 6% Require Complete Replacement
- Statewide Transportation Needs Assessment 201111
Infrastructure Report Card
CALIFORNIA• 6 of the Nation’s 10 Worst Urban Area Pavement
Conditions• 14 of the Nation’s 20 Most Congested
Transportation Corridors• 66% of California’s Major Urban Highways are
Congested
- Texas Transportation Institute
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Poor Road Conditions
• Cost Californian’s $13.9 Billion Annuallyo $586 per Motorist
• Contribute to More than One-Half of US Highway Fatalities:o More than Drunk Driving, Speeding or Failing to use
Seat Belts- TRIP
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Population will Grow from 38 MM to 44 MM by 2020
VMT is growing 10 times faster than lane miles.- Governor’s 2006 Strategic Growth Plan
Truck freight is expected to increase 75% by 2035.- Statewide Transportation Needs Assessment 2011
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Funding Will Collapse in 2013
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Our Current Challenges
• Decline of gas tax revenues and purchasing power
• Diversion of transportation revenues • Lack of state and federal solutions
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Develop Local Solutions
• Local funding:o Jump start projectso Leverages state and
federal moneyo Increases local control
and flexibilityo Connects public action
with direct benefits• Measure M2 passed by
70% margin
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Develop State Solutions
• Public-Private Partnerships• Vehicle License Fee• Fuel User Fee• Cap & Trade• Infrastructure Bond• VMT• Voter Threshold
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