market projections for nanocellulose enabled products
TRANSCRIPT
MARKET PROJECTIONS FOR
NANOCELLULOSE-ENABLED PRODUCTS
Jo Anne Shatkin, E.M. (Ted) Bilek, John Cowie, and Theodore H. Wegner
SWST CONFERENCE
JACKSON LAKE LODGE, WYOMING JUNE 7-12, 2015
Compound Growth Forecast: 19%
“The nanocellulose market is estimated around $250 million in 2014, with the high share held by North America and Europe together. The global nano cellulose market by value is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 19% from 2014 to 2019. The high growth is forecasted to be in the North America and Europe due to rising advancements in the end industries such as paper and paper board, composites & packaging, biomedicine in the region. Europe is estimated to have the second highest growth from 2014 to 2019.” - RnR Market Research, 2015.
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Compound Growth Forecast: 19%
“The nanocellulose market is estimated around $250 million in 2014, with the high share held by North America and Europe together. The global nano cellulose market by value is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 19% from 2014 to 2019. The high growth is forecasted to be in the North America and Europe due to rising advancements in the end industries such as paper and paper board, composites & packaging, biomedicine in the region. Europe is estimated to have the second highest growth from 2014 to 2019.” - RnR Market Research, 2015.
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$4,650
• Shatkin, Jo Anne, Theodore H. Wegner, E.M. (Ted) Bilek, and John Cowie. 2014. “Market projections of cellulose nanomaterial-enabled products – Part 1: Applications.” TappiJournal. (May) 13(5): 9-16.http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46174
• Cowie, John, E.M. (Ted) Bilek, Theodore H. Wegner, and Jo Anne Shatkin. 2014. “Market projections of cellulose nanomaterial-enabled products – Part 2: Volume estimates.” TappiJournal. (June) 13(6): 57-69.http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/46175
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Objectives
• Discuss Market Drivers for Nanocellulose
• Summarize the results of a study on potential markets for nanocellulose
– Categories of applications
– Methodology
– Volume estimates
• Recommend some future research directions
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Environmental Market Drivers
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Consumer/Retailer demand Regulatory
Lightweighting to improve fuel efficiency
Café standards
Energy EfficiencyStretch codes; building codes
Bio-based materialsShopping bag/water bottle bans/additive red-listing
Greener Consumer Products EU Directive –vehiclerecycling
Carbon Dioxide targets
Renewable/compostableLandfill bans/ recycling targets
Assumptions
• Recent research reports/expert network to identify target applications
• Current market sizes are maintained (no growth)
• Commercialization within the next 6-11 years
• Dry yield 40%
• Cost competitive with current alternatives
• Technical issues addressed
• No barrier to adoption7
HIGH VOLUME LOW VOLUME NOVEL and EMERGING APPLICATIONS
Cement Wallboard FacingSensors – medical, environmental, industrial
Automotive Body Insulation Reinforcement fiber - construction
Automotive Interior Paint-Architectural Water filtration
Packaging Coatings Paint-Special Purpose Air filtration
Paper CoatingsPaint -OEM Applications
Viscosity modifiers
Paper Filler Aerospace Structure Purification
Packaging Filler Aerospace Interiors Cosmetics
Replacement -Plastic PackagingAerogels for the Oiland Gas Industry
Excipients
Plastic Film Replacement Organic LED
Hygiene and Absorbent Products Flexible Electronics
Textiles for Clothing Photovoltaics
Recyclable Electronics
3D printing
Photonic Films
Targeted Applications
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Volume = M * NC content * MP
M = recent market size NC Content = % nanocelluloseMP = market penetration rate
Volume Estimates
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Example: Nanocellulose Demandfor Automotive Bodies
~1.57 T ~2.08 T
Cellulose nanomaterial demand =
Avg. weight/vehicle * Total vehicles
produced * Portion of weight that’s
steel * Portion of steel that could
potentially be replaced *
Nanocellulose market penetration *
Nanocellulose relative weight
proportion
[(1.57 tonnes + 2.08 tonnes)/2 x 15.8 million
vehicles * 1/3 steel/vehicle x 50% steel
replacement] x 1/2 x 0.65= 1.56 million tonnes cellulose nanomaterials
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Example: Textiles
CATEGORIES
•Clothing & Apparel - only
•Home Textiles
•Military Textiles
•Medical Textiles
•Sport Textiles
•Technical and Smart Textiles
•http://www.innovationintextiles.com/smart-textiles-and-nanotechnologies-
applications-technologies-and-markets/#sthash.sUAoIyBx.dpuf
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Example: Adding Nanocellulose to Cement
• Global cement market volume is 3.3 Billion tonnes per year
– Weight addition of 0.5% CNC (Cao et al. 2013) >> 16.5 million tonnes CNC
• This study – U.S. adoption for ultra-high performance structural cement market – pre-stressed and pre-treated only (5.7 M tonnes cement >> 21,000 tonnes CNC @75% market penetration)
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Estimated Market Penetration Rates - High Volume Applications
Low Estimate % Average Estimate % High Estimate %
High Volume Cellulose NanomaterialsU.S. Market Penetration Estimates
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Market and/or Application
Thousand Tonnes Per Year
Low Estimate Average Estimate High Estimate
Packaging Coatings 855 1,140 1,425
Replacement for Plastic Packaging
390 897 1,560
Plastic Film Replacement 364 727 1,091Hygiene and Absorbent Products
420 700 1,400
Automotive Body 240 320 800Textiles for Clothing 275 550 825Paper Filler 310 517 724Packaging Filler 310 517 724Paper Coatings 351 468 585Automotive Interior 81 108 135Cement 14 21 28
TOTALS 3,610 5,966 9,297
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Annual U.S Tonnage Estimates for Nanocellulose
High Volume Applications
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
PackagingPaper
Wovens
Annual Tonnage Estimate by Forest Products Subsector
Film
Coatings
Fiber/plasticreplacement
Filler
High Volume Cellulose Nanomaterials - Potential Applications- World
[i] United Nations GDP Statistics:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnltransfer.asp?fID=2
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Market and/or Application
Low Estimate Average Estimate High Estimate
Tonnes(Thousands)
Tonnes(Thousands)
Tonnes(Thousands)
Packaging Coatings 3,958 5,278 6,297
Replacement for Plastic Packaging
1,806 4,153 7,222
Plastic Film Replacement 1,683 3,366 5,049
Hygiene and Absorbent Products
1,944 3,241 6,481
Automotive Body 2,700 3,573 8,950
Textiles for Clothing 1,273 2,543 3,891
Paper Filler 1,437 2,394 3,352
Packaging Filler 1,437 2,394 3,352
Paper Coatings 1,437 2,394 3,352
Automotive Interior 420 587 700
Cement 0 4,130 8,250
TOTALS 18,283 32,829 56,481
[1] Global estimates based on GDP, except where noted in the text (Cement, automotive applications, and plastic packaging)
Low Volume Cellulose Nanomaterials -Potential Applications
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[1] Estimates extrapolated from GDP
Market and/or Application
United StatesAll estimates calculated from current market data
Global
Low Estimate Medium Estimate High Estimate Medium Estimate
%Tonnes
(Thousands) %Tonnes
(Thousands) %Tonnes
(Thousands) %Tonnes
(Thousands)
Wallboard Facing 25 5.5 50 11.0 75 16.5 50 51
Insulation 2 48 5 120 7 168 5 556
Aerospace Structure 10 0.6 30 1.7 50 2.9 30 8
Aerospace Interiors 50 5 75 7 100 10 75 32
Aerogels -Oil /Gas Industry 25 150 50 300 75 450 50 1,389
Architectural Paint 10 5 25 12 40 20 25 56
Special Purpose Paint 50 12 75 18 75 24 75 83
Paint for OEM Applications 50 6 75 12 100 18 75 56
TOTALS — 230 — 480 — 710 — 2,230[1] Global estimates are scaled up on the basis of Gross Domestic Product
Other Market Estimates
Report Volume (TPY) Timing
Future Markets, Inc. 1st Ed. (2012)
21 2017
Future Markets, 2nd Ed. (2012)
770 2017
Arbora Nano (2012) 145,000 NA
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Recent Analysis of Patent Applications for Wood-based Nanocelluloses
• 10% - Paper Coating
• 8% - Paper Furnish
• 22% - Composites
• 9% - Film
[Source Salmenkivi 2013]
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Alternative U.S. Acreage Estimates of Cellulose Needed*
Green Tons/ Acre
Acres per Year
Hectares
PLANTATION GROWN TREES 470 176,000 69,000
NATURAL FORESTS 92 906,000 352,000
FOREST RESTORATION “THINNINGS” 22 3,840,000 1,493,000
*Assuming 100% from virgin wood pulp
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Next Steps
• Estimate Novel Application Volumes
• Refine Estimates
– Competitive advantage
– Cost sensitivity
– Adoption rates
– Survey for applications
– Technical issues
– Time to market
• Jobs estimates
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Results depend on the validity of assumptions…
• "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
• "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."- Popular Mechanics, 1949
• "But what...is it good for?"- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of
IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip
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