Market Talk Investment Strategy Research Division

English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-reading clients can see what the main recommendations are from our Thai-language research team. Given that this is a rough-and-ready translation, Asia Plus Securities Company cannot be held responsible for translation inaccuracies.

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The Thai language research reports and information contained therein are compiled from public data sources and our analysts' interviews with executives of listed companies. They are presented for informational purposes only and not to be deemed as solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Best attempts have been made to verify information from these vast sources, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy, adequacy, completeness and timeliness. The analyses and comments presented herein are opinions of our analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia Plus Securities.

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Investment Strategy

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

SET Index is still expected to swing narrowly as there is no new driver. We recommend selective buying. We cut investment in LH from 15% to 10% and invest 5% more in KSL, which benefits from rising global sugar price. Top picks are KSL(FV@B2.60), MCS(FV@B14.20), and PYLON(FV@B7.35).

SET Index 1,586.16 Change (pts) 5.53 Market Cap (Million B) 65,020

Watch SET Index signal today

US-China trade issue seems to take a positive turn, but markets still have to watch details about the US-China trade deal phase 1 that will be disclosed after the signing ceremony tomorrow. SET Index yesterday was volatile for the entire day and closed up slightly by 0.74 pts (+0.05%) to 1,586.90 pts with trading value of B60.3bn. The market was mainly supported by commerce plays, especially CPALL (+1.74%), RS (+2.50%), and ILM (+2.11%), and transportation plays, led by AOT (+1.00%) and BEM (+0.88%), while it was weakened by banking plays, especially KBANK (-2.21%) and SCB (-0.87%), as well as other big-cap plays, e.g. PTT (-1.08%), TOP (-4.67%), and TRUE (-1.90%).

SET Index today would be affected by fundamentals factors. The US-China trade deal will be signed today; this is already priced in. Fund inflow is unlikely due to high Fx risk. SET Index is expected to swing narrowly, switching to stocks with positive sentiment (especially budget disbursement). The 2020 budget bill was already passed by the House of Representatives and it is expected to be ready for disbursement in February. The government plans aggressive budget disbursement, especially investment in infrastructure mega projects; this would benefiting contractor plays, where have been dull recently because there were new big-sized projects. We recommend PYLON because profit would make new highs in 4Q19-1Q20 as well as big-cap CK. Chim-Shop-Chai phase 4 has not reached a conclusion yet, so positive sentiment in the commerce sector would temporarily tumble but resume later. We decrease investment in LH from 15% to 10% and invest 5% more in KSL, which would benefits from rising global sugar price. Top picks are KSL, MCS, and PYLON.

US-China trade deal phase 1 to be signed today

The entire world is keeping an eye on the signing ceremony of the US-China trade deal phase 1 in Washington, D.C at 11:30 today (U.S. time) or 23:30 tonight (Thailand's time). Details about the deal are shown below:

US

U.S. import tariff hike round four phase 2 with the rate of 15% on Chinese goods worth US$160bn, originally scheduled on December 15, 2019, will be indefinitely postponed.

U.S. import tariff round four phase 1 on Chinese goods worth US$110bn will be halved from 15% to 7.5%. Meanwhile, the first three rounds of U.S. import tariffs on Chinese goods worth US$250bn in total would be maintained at 25%.

Net Buy and Sell by Investor Type (Million B) Foreign -227.41 Proprietary 1,030.09 Institutional -1,240.58 Retail 437.90

Therdsak Thaveeteeratham Fundamental Investment Analyst on Capital

Market, Technical Investment Analyst License No: 004132

Paradorn Tiaranapramote Fundamental Investment Analyst on Securities

License No: 075365

Takit Chardcherdsak Fundamental Investment Analyst on Securities

License No: 087636

Wanapruk Komonwitayatorn Fundamental Investment Analyst on Securities

License No: 110506

Pawat Pattrapong Quantitative Analyst Assistant

Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

China

China will increase import of U.S. goods by US$200bn in the next two years as well as import US$50bn worth of additional U.S. agricultural goods.

US-China trade war

Global stock markets have considerably absorbed positive sentiment from the US-China trade deal phase 1 already, so they are likely to face profit-taking selloff if there are no new positive factor. For example, markets expect negotiations on the trade deal phase 2 to start immediately after the signing. On the other hand, the US will not lift its first three rounds of U.S. import tariffs on Chinese goods until its presidential election in November 2020 reaches the conclusion, according to Bloomberg. Markets are still concerned that US-China trade war would be prolonged.

Govt to speed budget disbursement, benefiting contractor plays

Yesterday, the cabinet did not approve Chim-Shop-Chai program phase 4, which is open for all modern trade stores (convenience stores, e.g. Family Mart, Big C Mini, and 7-11) to participate in the cashback campaign (originally open for up to 20 stores), disappointing the market. Still, this program is expected to be proposed for cabinet approval again next week.

On the other hand, the cabinet approved the 2020 urgent investment budget worth B3.2tr. 54% of total budget is set to be disbursed by end-2Q20 (end-March 2020). B1tr of budget (6.6% of GDP) is anticipated to enter the economic system, B770bn for state employees' wage and B220bn for investment projects.

The 2020 budget bill is set to be deliberated by the Senate on January 20; it is expected to be passed without difficulty and ready for disbursement by February 2020. As soon as the 2020 budget bill takes effect, the government expects to disburse 100% of fixed budget and 100% of investment by end-4Q20 (end-September 2020).

Upstream• Organic chemical• Steam engine• Power generator

Intermediate• Jet engine• Electric circuit board• Rollform machine• Soldering machine

US$50bn25% import tariff

Jul 6, 2018 - Present

Up to 30% on

Oct 15, 2019

US$50bn25% import tariff

Jul 6, 2018 - Present

Upstream• Meat (beef & pork)• Dairy products• Soybean• Nut

Intermediate• Processed seafood• Processed fruit• Tobacco

Downstream• Auto• Leatherwear• Carpet & textile• Electric appliances• Tech goods

US$200bn10% import tariff

Sep 24, 2018 – May 9, 2019

25% import tariffMay 10, 2019 - Present

Up to 30% on

Oct 15, 2019

US$60bn5-10% import tariff

Sep 24, 2018 - Present

5-25% import tariff

Jun 1, 2019 – Present

Downstream• Alcoholic beverage &

tobacco• Leatherwear• Carpet & textile

Downstream• Agricultural goods• Clothing & footwear• Kitchen utensil• Antique

US$110bn15% import tariff(up from 10%)

Effective on Sep 1, 2019

US$30bn expected

5-10% import tariff

Effective on Sep 1, 2019

Downstream• Auto *• Tea & coffee• Alcoholic beverage • Crude oil *• Small-sized aircraft

Downstream• Smartphone (iPhone)• Laptop• Toy• Camera• Musical instrument

US$160bn15% import tariff(up from 10%)

Effective on Dec 15, 2019

US$45bn expected5-10% import tariff

Effective on Dec 15, 2019

Downstream• Aircraft• Agricultural goods• Glassware & kitchen

utensil• Furniture• Clothing & textile

China’s import tariff hike on USUS$140bn

U.S. import tariff hike on ChinaUS$520bn

Round

Round

Round 4.1

Round 4.2

Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

We focus on 2020 investment budget of B650bn. The government has only eight months left this fiscal year with average investment budget of B81bn/month, so it is expected to speed up mega investment projects, especially 44 transportation projects worth B1.94tr under the 2020 investment plans. This would encourage speculation on contractor plays, e.g. PYLON, CK, and STEC.

Investment projects

TOT-CAT merger has no big impact on ICT industry

The cabinet approved the merger of TOT and CAT and the formation of a new company, National Telecom (NT), which will be 100% owned by the Ministry of Ministry, and required that the merger has to be complete in six months. We expect this issue not to affect the ICT industry significantly. TOT and CAT are smaller players playing smaller role in competition and the band biddings. Speaking of the NBTC's bidding of all four 5G bands (700 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2600 MHz, and 26 GHz) in February 2020, TOT and CAT would mainly focus on 700 MHz band for good coverage (for public use), so they are not directly competing with private mobile operators that have different subscriber base targets and aim for different bands. In the long term, the merger would mainly enhance ICT service for public use as well as infrastructure service. Currently, they are providing private operators assets and equipment (especially network towers) under existing lease concessions that are still effective in the long term. Optimistically, operating as one company would make it easier for them to provide joint network in the industry, which would lead to lower infrastructure cost for private operators.

Projects Value

(Million B) Projects

Value

(Million B)

Orange Line (East) 93,950 Bangkok – Nakhon Ratchasima 179,412

Pink Line (Khae Rai – Min Buri) 47,558 Three-Airport Rail Link 224,554

Yellow Line (Ladprao – Samrong) 50,340

Red Line (Bang Sue - Rangsit) 109,021 Phase 1 (7 routes) 130,664

Bang Yai – Kanchanaburi 55,927 Suvarnabhumi Airport Phase 2 51,862

Bang Pa-in – Nakhon Ratchasima 84,600 Krabi Airport 1,215

Rama 2 Elevated Expressway 10,500 Khon Kaen Airport 2,250

Rama 3 - Dao Khanong - 31,244

Western Outer Ring Road Laem Chabang Port phase 3 84,361

Red Line (Milling Link) 44,144 Denchai - Chiang Rai - Chiang Khong 85,345

Red Line (Rangsit - Thammasat University & 24,241 Baan Pai - Nakhon Phanom 67,965

Taling Chan - Siriraj - Salaya) Phase 2 (7 routes) 262,075

Orange Line (Cultural Center – Bang Khun Non) 122,067

Purple Line (Tao Poon – Rat Burana) 101,112 Nakhon Pathom - Cha-am 79,006

Phuket Monorail 34,827 Hat Yai – Padang Besar 57,022

Water Transportation Rangsit - Bang Pa-In 29,400

Ranong Port 1,000 Bang Khun Thian - Ban Phaeo 32,642

Khon Kaen Dry Port 1,805 Kathu - Patong 13,917

Airport N2 - Eastern Outer Ring Road 17,550

Suvarnabhumi Airport (third runway) 21,795

MRO facility at U-Tapao Airport 10,588 Bangkok – Phitsanulok 212,892

38 Aircrafts 156,169 Bangkok – Hua Hin 100,125

Don Mueang Airport phase 3 37,590

Chiang Mai Airport phase 1 15,818

Status

* 17 projects approved by the cabinet, under construction (B782,329m)

* 12 projects approved by the cabinet, ready for auctions (B412,739m)

* 2 projects approved by the PPP Board, pending for cabinet approval (B201,073m)

* 13 projects pending for cabinet approval (B551,170m)

Double-Track Railways

High-Speed Railway

Pending for Cabinet Approval / Auctions

Currently under Construction / Auctions

Double-Track Railways

Water Transportation

Mass Rapid Transit

Motorways / Expressways

Mass Rapid Transit

Motorways / Expressways

High-Speed Railway

Airport

Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

Mobile players probably aim for 2600 MHz and 26 GHz bands because 1) their reference prices are still reasonable, 2) they are not owned by any of them yet, and 3) they can be used for 5G service. There are 19 and 27 licenses, respectively, so the final price and cost of 5G investment would not be very high. Cost of 5G service is expected at B2bn/year, including cost from 700 MHz band allocation and bidding (included in our forecast) and additional B1bn cost from the bidding (not included in our forecast). However, earnings growth of mobile operators would be weak for the next 1-2 years because 5G business is still small and take time to develop. Companies with smaller profit bases would be adversely affected, e.g. DTAC (B5.9bn/year) and TRUE (B1.1bn/year), whereas ADVANC with high profit base of B32bn/year would be limitedly affected. We reiterate NEUTRAL for the ICT sector. Top pick is ADVANC(FV@B270) for limited downside (from cost of new 5G band) and consistent dividend payment.

Social security medical fee hike good for healthcare plays: BCH, THG

Yesterday, the Social Security Office (SSO) hiked social security medical fee per one patient (as expected) by 9.7% on average, effective from January 1, 2020: 1) up 9.3% for flat rate per one patient, 2) up 1.3% for chronic diseases, and 3) up 16.6% for high-caring disease (RW>2). Hospitals will still recognize revenue of B12,800/Adj.RW, while SSO would have higher overall budget and be able to fully pay this to hospitals, lowering risk of not fully receive revenue. Impact from RW issue in 4Q19 is not include in our forecast yet. 2020 new forecast well include new RW issue and social security service fee; we conservatively expect social security fee to be raised by 5% because is still lacks clarity, especially regarding cost of service in accordance to complaints and patient discharge (B120 per patient).

Only CHG would surely recognize Adj.RW impact in 2019 forecast, so we cut CHG's earnings forecast by 3.3% in 2019. We revise up CHG's 2020 forecast by 7.5% from a weak base in 2019 and higher social security revenue per patient. 2020 profit is estimated to jump 26.7%.

There is no clarity for BCH and RJH yet, so Adj.RW impact would not be booked in 2020. We revise up BCH and RJH's forecasts in 2020 by only 4.5% and 3% from 2021 on by 7.5%p.a. and 9.1%; they are expected to show 2020 profit growth of 12% and 14.8% (better than usual). Under new forecasts, BCH, CHG, and RJH's fair values are expected at B22.1, B2.98, and B34.6, providing wide upside. We reiterate BUY. Top picks are BCH and CHG - because profit would grow strongly and new hospitals reach a breakeven point in 2020 - as well as BDMS with the best stability.

Earnings report season begins. TISCO's 2019 profit near forecast

2019 earnings report season has begun, stating with TISCO. TISCO posted 4Q19 net profit of B1,865m, flat qoq while growing 8%yoy. Operating expense increased 3%qoq due to seasonal effect, mainly from marketing expense and credit cost that rose to 0.55% from 0.21% in 3Q19. However, operating income grew 5%qoq to B5,033m. Fee income (37% of operating income) grew 24%qoq; under TFRS15, incentive fee from mutual funds was recognized once a year (formerly every month). Net interest income (61% of operating income) fell 1.3%qoq because NIM dropped to 4.21% from 4.29% in 3Q19 due to lower loan yield.

End-4Q19 net loans grew 1%qoq to B242,963m, driven by corporate loans (15% of loans) and SME (5%) that grew 5% and 11%qoq, compensating for retail loans (80%) that dropped

Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

0.4%qoq mainly from car leasing (57%) and housing loans (6%). On the other hand, auto title loans (15%) grew 4%qoq mainly from Somwang's branch expansion (from 238 at end-2018 and 279 at end-3Q19 to 279 at end-4Q19). Overall, 2019 net profit was B7,270m, growing 4%yoy (as expected).

For asset quality, end-4Q19 NPL ratio decreased to 2.4% from 2.77% at end-3Q19. 2019 debt reserve (as of December 31, 2019) was B10,314m, equal to coverage ratio of 176.6%, which is probably enough under TFRS9 that require debt reserve of B8-8.5bn. TISCO is expected to have excess reserve of B2bn, which will be will gradually recognize at B400m/year in its financial statement for five year (flat rate).

TISCO's 2020 profit is expected at B8,132m, growing 12%yoy. As the economy is surrounded by many negative factors, 2019 loan growth missed forecast (probably overestimated). Under our initial forecast, TISCO's fair value is B91.

Dilution likely for BAM after greenshoe period

Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM) offered 1,765 IPO shares – 280 million newly-issued shares, 1,255 million existing shares, and 230 million shares reserved for over-allotment (greenshoe) option. Trinity Securities Company Limited is the overallotment agent who borrowed the over-allotment shares from FIDF to be delivered to the subscribers within 30 days from BAM's first trading day. Yesterday (January 14, 2020), BAM notified the SET of this over-allotment shares. Trinity has bought 12.96 million shares and notified BAM that it would like to buy 217.04 million shares at the price of B17.50 or the total value of B3,798.24m. As a result, the number of BAM's shares increased from 3,015 million to 3,232.04 million. This would result in dilution effect of 6.7% on EPS and lower its share price by B0.40 or 1.6%.

Investors have been highly interested in BAM. 1) The price has jumped 30% from the IPO price of B22.8, but P/E ratio is still only 10.14x (four-quarter average), lower than JMT (23.9x) and CHAYO (24.6x). 2) Amid banks' asset quality concern, BAM's debt collection business is expected to grow in the future. We are studying BAM's data and future plays. Based on the market consensus, fair value is around B19-22.8.

Sugar price makes two-year high due to shortage. Favor KSL

Global sugar jumped 30% in four months and made a two-year high of Cent14.1/lb. The drought in Asia, especially in India and Thailand (the world's No.1 and No.4 sugar producer), has resulted in global sugar supply deficit for the first time in two years. High sugar price has positive sentiment on sugar manufacturers and sellers. We revise up KSL's net profit forecast by 9.2% in 2019/20 and 11.0% in 2020/21. BBGI's business (KSL holds 40% stake) would rebound greatly in 2020 thanks to rising ethanol and palm oil prices. KSL has over 15% upside and dividend yield over 3%p.a, so this is a good entry point.

Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

SET vs Sector Return 2019 SET vs Sector Return 2020 YTD

Source: ASPS Research Source: ASPS Research

Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

Market Talk Top Picks

Source: ASPS Research

StartDate Avg. Cost Last

MCS 14-Jan-20 10% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 14.20 7.80 1.36 5.954Q19 export to Japan is expected at 10,000-13,000 tons, boosting 2019

profit by 31.7%yoy. Profit is expected to grow further, driven by Shibuya and other projects

LH 30-Dec-19 10% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 12.00 15.09 2.03 7.28Stock with solid fundamentals from upcountry and overseas branch

expansion. Dividend yield is expected over 4%p.a.

CPF 30-Dec-19 10% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 35.00 13.21 1.18 2.74

4Q profit usually makes year's high. Plus, LH will benefit from

government economic stimulus measures, e.g. Baan Dee Mee Down

(Good House with Down Payment).

PYLON 02-Jan-20 10% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 7.35 12.33 3.10 4.91Pork and chicken prices in Thailand keep rising (especially pork price),

directly benefiting CPF.

ROBINS 30-Dec-19 20% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 70.00 20.90 3.30 2.05Profit is expected to make new highs in 4Q19-1Q20 as backlog makes

record high. Dividend yield is expected over 5%p.a.

PSH 10-Jan-20 10% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 18.50 6.62 0.74 7.96

ROBINS may have capital gain from the share swap with CRC owing to

CRC's stronger business bases, better growth potential, and better

business diversification (food, hardline, fashion).

EASTW 07-Jan-20 15% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 14.00 16.82 1.66 3.59PSH benefits from projection on LTV revision. The price has not

rebounded much. Dividend yield over 8%p.a.

PTT 30-Dec-19 10% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 56.00 13.05 1.38 4.35

4Q19 profit is expected to improve qoq, driven by PTTEP's sales volume

growth. PTT is one of the most popular LTF stocks, so it would benefit

from late-year massive LTF buy rally.

Accumulated contribution returns since beginning of the year

Accumulated returns since beginning of the yearAccumulated returns

Accumulated returns since our recommendation

WeightDividend

Yield

Accumulated

ReturnPBV 2020F

PER

2020F

Price

Today we decrease investment in LH by 5% and switched to KSL

Yesterday we excluded MAJOR from portfolio and switched to MCS

Stocks Fair Value Strategist Comment

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0%

PYLON

CPF

PTT

EASTW

LH

MCS

PSH

ROBINS

KSL

3.30% 3.30%

0.09%0.45% 0.45%

0.05%0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

YTD MTD -1D

ASPS Portfolio SET Index

2016F 15-Jan-2020Start

Date Avg. Cost Last

MCS 14-Jan-20 10% 1.51% 9.95 10.10 14.20 7.80 1.36 5.95ระยะสน 4Q62 ทยอยสงออกญป นสงราว 1-1.3 หมนตน หนนก าไรป 2562 เตบโต 31.7% YoY ดานป 2563 แนวโนมก าไรยงดตอเนอง โดยมแรงสงจาก

โครงการ Shibuya และโครงการอนๆ

LH 30-Dec-19 15% 3.69% 9.93 10.30 12.00 15.09 2.03 7.28ผลประกอบการไตมาส 4 มกจะเปนจดสงสดของปเสมอ และไดมาตรการภาครฐ

อยาง บานดมดาวน เขามาหนนอกแรง

CPF 30-Dec-19 10% 6.36% 27.50 29.25 35.00 13.21 1.18 2.74ราคาสนคาโภคภณฑทฟนตวอยางตอเนอง อาท ราคาหมทข นมาเรวและแรง ด

ตอหนอาหารสงออกอยาง CPF

PYLON 02-Jan-20 10% 6.54% 4.74 5.05 7.35 12.33 3.10 4.91คาดผลประกอบการจะเพมขนใน 4Q62 และงวด 1Q63 นาจะท า New High

เพราะ Backlog สงสดเปนประวตการณ อกทงคาดหวงปนผลไดสงเกน 5%

ROBINS 30-Dec-19 20% 0.57% 65.63 66.00 70.00 20.90 3.30 2.05

มโอกาสได Capital Gain จากการแปลงหน CRC ทมฐานธรกจทมความมนคง

และศกยภาพเตบโตสงกวา เพราะธรกจครอบคลม ทงกลมอาหาร, ฮารดไลน และ

แฟชน

PSH 10-Jan-20 10% 1.32% 15.10 15.30 18.50 6.62 0.74 7.96PSH ไดแรงหนนจากกระแสการปรบ LTV อกทงราคาหนยงไมไดปรบตวขนไป

มากนก และรอรบปนผลสงกวา 8% ตอป

EASTW 07-Jan-20 15% 4.50% 11.10 11.60 14.00 16.82 1.66 3.59

ไดอานสงคจากสถานการณภยแลง และในป 2563 EASTW มการทยอยปรบขน

ราคาขายน าดบดวยสตรใหม ผลกดนใหก าไรสทธป 2563 กลบมาโตครงแรกใน

รอบ 5 ป

PTT 30-Dec-19 10% 4.55% 44.00 46.00 56.00 13.05 1.38 4.35คาดก าไรปกต 4Q62 จะฟนตวขนจาก 3Q62 หนนหลกจาก PTTEP ทคาดจะได

ในสวนของปรมาณขายทเพมข น

Accumulated contribution returns since beginning of the year

Strategist CommentStocks Fair Value

Accumulated returns

Accumulated returns since our recommendation

WeightDividend

Yield

Accumulated

ReturnPBV 2020F

PER

2020F

Price

วนนลดน ำหนก LH 5% แลวลงทนใน KSL แทนในสดสวนทเทำกน

วำนนปรบ MAJOR ออกจำกพอรตแลวลงทนใน MCS แทนในสดสวนทเทำกน

6.54%

6.36%

4.55%

4.50%

3.69%

1.51%

1.32%

0.57%

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

PYLON

CPF

PTT

EASTW

LH

MCS

PSH

ROBINS

3.30% 3.30%

0.09%0.45% 0.45%

0.05%0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

YTD MTD -1D

ASPS Portfolio SET Index

2016F 15-Jan-2020Start

Date Avg. Cost Last

MCS 14-Jan-20 10% 1.51% 9.95 10.10 14.20 7.80 1.36 5.95ระยะสน 4Q62 ทยอยสงออกญป นสงราว 1-1.3 หมนตน หนนก าไรป 2562 เตบโต 31.7% YoY ดานป 2563 แนวโนมก าไรยงดตอเนอง โดยมแรงสงจาก

โครงการ Shibuya และโครงการอนๆ

LH 30-Dec-19 15% 3.69% 9.93 10.30 12.00 15.09 2.03 7.28ผลประกอบการไตมาส 4 มกจะเปนจดสงสดของปเสมอ และไดมาตรการภาครฐ

อยาง บานดมดาวน เขามาหนนอกแรง

CPF 30-Dec-19 10% 6.36% 27.50 29.25 35.00 13.21 1.18 2.74ราคาสนคาโภคภณฑทฟนตวอยางตอเนอง อาท ราคาหมทข นมาเรวและแรง ด

ตอหนอาหารสงออกอยาง CPF

PYLON 02-Jan-20 10% 6.54% 4.74 5.05 7.35 12.33 3.10 4.91คาดผลประกอบการจะเพมขนใน 4Q62 และงวด 1Q63 นาจะท า New High

เพราะ Backlog สงสดเปนประวตการณ อกทงคาดหวงปนผลไดสงเกน 5%

ROBINS 30-Dec-19 20% 0.57% 65.63 66.00 70.00 20.90 3.30 2.05

มโอกาสได Capital Gain จากการแปลงหน CRC ทมฐานธรกจทมความมนคง

และศกยภาพเตบโตสงกวา เพราะธรกจครอบคลม ทงกลมอาหาร, ฮารดไลน และ

แฟชน

PSH 10-Jan-20 10% 1.32% 15.10 15.30 18.50 6.62 0.74 7.96PSH ไดแรงหนนจากกระแสการปรบ LTV อกทงราคาหนยงไมไดปรบตวขนไป

มากนก และรอรบปนผลสงกวา 8% ตอป

EASTW 07-Jan-20 15% 4.50% 11.10 11.60 14.00 16.82 1.66 3.59

ไดอานสงคจากสถานการณภยแลง และในป 2563 EASTW มการทยอยปรบขน

ราคาขายน าดบดวยสตรใหม ผลกดนใหก าไรสทธป 2563 กลบมาโตครงแรกใน

รอบ 5 ป

PTT 30-Dec-19 10% 4.55% 44.00 46.00 56.00 13.05 1.38 4.35คาดก าไรปกต 4Q62 จะฟนตวขนจาก 3Q62 หนนหลกจาก PTTEP ทคาดจะได

ในสวนของปรมาณขายทเพมข น

Accumulated contribution returns since beginning of the year

Strategist CommentStocks Fair Value

Accumulated returns

Accumulated returns since our recommendation

WeightDividend

Yield

Accumulated

ReturnPBV 2020F

PER

2020F

Price

วนนลดน ำหนก LH 5% แลวลงทนใน KSL แทนในสดสวนทเทำกน

วำนนปรบ MAJOR ออกจำกพอรตแลวลงทนใน MCS แทนในสดสวนทเทำกน

6.54%

6.36%

4.55%

4.50%

3.69%

1.51%

1.32%

0.57%

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

PYLON

CPF

PTT

EASTW

LH

MCS

PSH

ROBINS

3.30% 3.30%

0.09%0.45% 0.45%

0.05%0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

YTD MTD -1D

ASPS Portfolio SET Index

Equity Calendar

Research DivisionJanuary 15, 2020

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday13 14 15 16 17

New shares trading Last trading day Par decrease

CHO 13.015m shrs (w) GJS-W3 SHREIT B9.6781 par (from B9.7438)

SCB 8,733 shrs (p) PDJ-W3

BTS42C2003A 50m units XE

GJS-W3 0.50:1w @B0.1668 (final,"SP")

PDJ-W3 1:1w @B1.00 (final, "SP")

New shares trading

PRIME 23 shrs (w)

TASCO 300,000 shrs (w)

GULF13P2004A 99m units

Conversion

CRANE-W1 1:1w @B3.00

20 21 22 23 24

XR XD XD XE

NOK 3.50:1n @B2.50 MGE @B0.21 GOLD @B0.48 NUSA-W3 1:1w @B1.00 (final, "SP")

XR

VI 1:3n @B0.05

Conversion

LIT-W1 1:2w @B4.00

RICHY-W2 1.22449:1w @B2.246

27 28 29 30 31

XD XD XR XD Conversion

BTS @B0.18 TSC @B0.60 YCI 1:2n @B10.00 UV @B1.00 B-W5 1:1w @B0.35

CSC-P 1:1

XE TWZ-W5 1:1w @B0.10 (final)

STAR-W3 1:1w @B4.00 (final, "SP")

BOT : Nov-19 Trade

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday3 4 5 6 7

Conversion XD Conversion

BH-P 1:1 IRC @B0.4164 GJS-W3 0.50:1w @B0.1668 (final)

KTIS @B0.15 PDJ-W3 1:1w @B1.00 (final)

MOC : Jan-20 CPI MPC meeting

10 11 12 13 14

XD

METCO @B10.00

PUBLIC HOLIDAY

(Makha Bucha Day)

17 18 19 20 21

XR Conversion XR Conversion

NEX 4:1n @B2.50 NUSA-W3 1:1w @B1.00 (final) KWG 1.7561:1n @tba STAR-W3 1:1w @B4.00 (final)

24 25 26 27 28

XD

PICO @B0.25

PICO-P @B0.25

NESDB - GDP 4Q/18 BOT : Jan-20 Trade

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday2 3 4 5 6

XD

KSL @B0.05

XR

T 10:1n @B0.03

MOC : Feb-20 CPI

9 10 11 12 13

16 17 18 19 20

MPC meeting

January 2020

February 2020

March 2020

C = conversion, CB = convertible bonds, PP = private placement, p = preferred shares, w = warrants, n = new, STD = stock dividend, NPG = Non-Performing Group Provided by Amika (ext 1229)