market themes cacttc southern area conference market update - verus.pdf · mar-13. nov-13. jul-14....
TRANSCRIPT
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MARCH 2018
Market Themes
CACTTC Southern Area Conference
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HighlightsEconomic and equity environment
― How long can the expansion and equity bull market last?
Rising interest rates
― Are the fears over higher interest rates overblown?
The end of the central bank stimulus era
― How will central bank tightening impact fixed income markets?
Historically tight credit spreads
― Is there a sufficient premium for credit risk?
Opportunities in emerging market debt
― Are higher yields in emerging markets attractive?
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference 2
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Economic and equity environment
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
3
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Global GDP growth
March 2018
CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/31/17
4
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
Jan-05 Nov-08 Sep-12 Jul-16
U.S.
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
Jan-05 Nov-08 Sep-12 Jul-16
Eurozone
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
Jan-05 Nov-08 Sep-12 Jul-16
Japan
0%
4%
8%
12%
Jan-05 Nov-08 Sep-12 Jul-16
BRICS
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How long can expansions continue?
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Australia Trade and Investment Commission
5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Switzerland (1983 to 1990)
Germany (1981 to 1991)
U.S. (2009 to current)
Italy (1983 to 1992)
Sweden (1993 to 2008)
France (1993 to 2008)
Spain (1993 to 2008)
U.K. (1992 to 2008)
Japan (1975 to 1993)
U.S. (1991 to 2008)
Canada (1991 to 2008)
South Korea (since 1998)
Netherlands (1981 to 2003)
Poland (since 1995)
Ireland (1986 to 2007)
Australia (since 1991)
# Years without recession
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Equity performance
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
6
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18
S&P 500 MSCI EAFE MSCI Emerging Markets
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Global earnings momentum
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: MSCI, as of 2/28/18, year-over-year growth in forward earnings
7
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17
US International Developed Emerging Markets
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Forward P/E ratios
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17
U.S. EAFE Emerging Markets
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The return of volatility
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Feb-13 May-14 Aug-15 Nov-16 Feb-18
CBOE VIX Index
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Rising rates?
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
10
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Long-term sovereign rates
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
11
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18
U.S. Germany Japan U.K.
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Interest rate increases in perspective
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Verus, Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
Increases in long-term interest rates over the past six months have been modest
12
0.74
0.53
0.300.27
0.47
0.30
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
6-Month Net Change in 10-Year Yields Z-Score
U.S. Germany U.K.
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Duration concerns
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
13
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Mod
ified
Adj
uste
d Du
ratio
n
BBgBarc U.S. Agg Treasury Index Duration
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What is driving U.S. rates higher?
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
14
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
Nominal Real Breakeven
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Economic backdrop
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, GDP and PCE data as of 12/31/17, consensus forecasts as of 2/28/18
15
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Mar-11 Nov-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Nov-13 Jul-14 Mar-15 Nov-15 Jul-16 Mar-17 Nov-17
Real GDP Growth (YoY) Core PCE Inflation (YoY)
2018 YE Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts
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U.S. Treasury curve
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg
16
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y
U.S. Treasury Curve as of 2/28/18 U.S. Treasury Curve as of 2/28/17
+107 bps
+48 bps
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Interest rates versus earnings yield
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
17
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Apr-68 Apr-71 Apr-74 Apr-77 Apr-80 Apr-83 Apr-86 Apr-89 Apr-92 Apr-95 Apr-98 Apr-01 Apr-04 Apr-07 Apr-10 Apr-13 Apr-16
Earnings Yield Spread U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield S&P 500 Earnings Yield
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Global central banks
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
18
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Central bank policy rates
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
19
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Mar-03 Jun-04 Sep-05 Dec-06 Mar-08 Jun-09 Sep-10 Dec-11 Mar-13 Jun-14 Sep-15 Dec-16
U.S. Eurozone Japan
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Short-term sovereign yields
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
20
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
U.S. Germany Japan U.K.
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U.S. monetary policy expectations
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
21
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Mar-12 Jan-13 Nov-13 Sep-14 Jul-15 May-16 Mar-17 Jan-18 Nov-18 Sep-19
Effective Fed Funds Rate Market Pricing Fed Dot Plot
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Fed balance sheet expectations
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, as of 1/31/18
22
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
Jan-07 Apr-08 Jul-09 Oct-10 Jan-12 Apr-13 Jul-14 Oct-15 Jan-17 Apr-18 Jul-19 Oct-20
Trill
ions
Treasuries MBS Other
Treasuries
MBS
Other
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Central bank balance sheets
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Federal Reserve, ECB, BOJ, as of 1/31/18
23
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11 Jul-12 Jan-14 Jul-15 Jan-17
Trill
ions
Fed ECB BOJ
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Credit markets
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
24
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Credit spreads
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
25
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17
High Yield Investment Grade
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Default rates
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, as of 12/31/17
26
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan-98 Sep-99 May-01 Jan-03 Sep-04 May-06 Jan-08 Sep-09 May-11 Jan-13 Sep-14 May-16
BofA-ML US HY par weighted default rate Energy
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Opportunities in emerging markets
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
27
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Fixed income opportunity set
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: JPMorgan, as of 12/31/17
28
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Mar-90 Mar-92 Mar-94 Mar-96 Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16
Asse
ts ($
) in
trill
ions
U.S. Developed ex-US EM
Dev ex-US: $44 Trillion
US: $39 Trillion
EM: $21 Trillion
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EMD local currency yields
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
29
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
EMD Local Yield Average
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EMD hard currency spreads
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2/28/18
30
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
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Emerging market currency
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference
Source: JPMorgan, as of 2/28/18
31
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18
35% drawdown
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HighlightsEconomic and equity environment
― How long can the expansion and equity bull market last?
Rising interest rates
― Are the fears over higher interest rates overblown?
The end of the central bank stimulus era
― How will central bank tightening impact fixed income markets?
Historically tight credit spreads
― Is there a sufficient premium for credit risk?
Opportunities in emerging market debt
― Are higher yields in emerging markets attractive?
March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference 32
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March 2018CACTTC Southern Area Conference 33